Document zowE1e39NR7bnnnb751OnYBBa

BUREAU OF MINES Preprint from BULLETIN 671 r ASBESTOS A Chapter from Mineral Facts and Problems, 1980 Edition UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR CTD007113 CT-777 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR BUREAU OF MINES Thii preprint it the current revision of the commodity chapter that appeared in Mineral Facts and Problems, 1975 Edition; and may have been updated as a Mineral Commodity Profile in 1977, 1978, and 1979. The data base for the forecasts and longterm analyses terminates with 1978. the last year for which relatively complete worldwide data were available. However, the author in cludes the latest information and data available in the text and tables when the final draft of the chapter is pre pared. Reserves and resources were determined on the basis of information, prices, and technological capabil ities cutrent in January 1980. Current Bureau of Mines publications and other reference information sources are listed at the end of this preprint. * This publication is preprinted from Bulletin 671. MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS. 1980 edition. The complete volume, when published, may be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, Washington. D.C. 20402 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents. U .S. Government Printing Office. Washington. D.C. 20402 ASBESTOS By Robert A. Clifton 1 The United State* has been lupplanted by the U.S.S.R. a* the largest consumer of asbestos fibers. The construction industry worldwide presently uses the majority of asbestos fibers in such products as asbestos cement pipe and sheet, roofing products, flooring products, paints, and caulking, and should remain the largest user. (U.S. mines produced 17%, 93,000 tons,* of domestic consumption, 561,000 tons, in 1979.) Canada is the leading supplier of asbestos imports into the United States, about 95%, with the Republic of South Africa second. South Africa supplies all of the U.S. demand for crocidolite and amosite, and the majority of imports from there are these fibers. The rate of growth in the use of asbestos continues higher in the developing countries. Asbestos reserves could well be in danger of depletion by the year 2000 at the forecast rates of consumption, if the "find" rate of new sources does not increase or viable substitutes areriot found. Table 12 shows present reserves insufficient for probable world cumulative demand by 2000. Canada has been overtaken by the U.S.S.R. and is no longer the world's largest producer of asbestos. The high level of activity in exploration, evaluation, and develop ment of new ore bodies, however, signals that Canada is likely to continue as the leading world exporter. United States demand shows clear signs of leveling off or even lessening somewhat. The quest for part of the asbestos market by producers of substitutes remains strong, but the substitute materials proposed generally fail to com pete with asbestos when measured by quality and/or economic yardsticks. Viable substitutes are needed for both health and economic reasons. The health hazards associated with asbestos are still undergoing close scrutiny by the Federal and local gov ernments, unions, industry organizations, and concerned environmentalists. The many areas of controversy give promise of prolonged dispute. Efforts to regulate condi tions to minimize the hazard are given at a reason for the possible loss of a viable asbestos production industry in the United States. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Canada, with major activity in the Province of Quebec, leads the West in both total quantity produced and the size of individual mines and mills. The U.S.S.R. is the leading world asbestos producer. The Republic of South Africa, Mainland China, Italy, and the United States mine substantial tonnages and, in combination with Canada and the U.S.S.R., produce over 90% of the world's supply. Chrysotile is the variety most in demand by over 95% of the world's consumers, and most of the data in this report relate to chrysotile. Total world production in 1979 was 5.3 million tons of all grades and varieties. Canada's share was 28%; the U.S.S.R. produced 47%; the Republic of South Africa, 5%; Mainland China, 5% Italy, 2%; and the United States, 2%. U.S. production was 93,000 tons, valued at $2 million. These data on world production do not credit U.S.S.R. production with the lower grades that are not used as fibers. Geographic Distribution In 1963, there was only one major asbestos-producing mine in the United States, GAFs Lowell mine in Ver mont. During that year, another mine of similar size and output, and three letter mine* began operating in Cali fornia. In 1974, all of the major producers operated; but in California, the largest mine and a lesser one closed during the year. In 1976, the largest California mine re opened under new ownership. Major domestic produc tion is limited to Vermont and California. An area roughly 120 kilometer* 1 long and 8 to 10 kilometers wide, beginning 130 kilometers east of Montreal, Canada, and continuing eastward contains the world's second largest mine and mill, and, in toto, the largest concentration of known deposits in the world. Mergers and dosings have reduced the number ofoperat ing companies to five in this "Eastern Townships" region, stretching from Danville to East Broughton. Quebec. Four of the companies were either totally or partially owned by U.S. corporations at the time of writing, most ofr which manufacture asbestos-containing products. New Canadian mines continue to be opened. The Asbestos Hill Mine of the Asbestos Corp., located in north ern Quebec on the Ungava Peninsula, opened in 1973 and continued production, while the even newer United Asbestos Corp. Mine in Ontario closed in 1977 because of financial problems, but is scheduled to reopen in 1980. Canadian production in 1979 totaled 1.5 million tons; that of the United States totaled 93 thousand tons. Most Soviet asbestos is used domestically or in other countries that have centrally controlled economies. The large mine and mill complexes in the Bajenova district of the Urals, the Dzhetygara Mine in Kazakhstan, and AkDovurak in Tuva are to be joined by the Kiembay com bine under construction in Orenburg Oblast and the planned developments of the Molodezhnoye and Il'chirsk deposits at Buryat. A new combine in Kazakhstan is to be a joint venture with several centrally controlled economy nations as partners. 1 Pb^ac*] BcienoK, Scctm of Noomeuibc Mtacnii. Afltonnf itpiiwdiitBCgkiBiiiiiBliffiodwnriKydfitd, One mile * l.tOMkilometm: I kitomrtfT - 0.M1S mie. l CTD007115 2 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS Tabic 1Worid asbaatoa production, 1978, and capacity 1978,1979, and 1986 (Thousand ra#trie tons) Production 1678 Capacity 1978 1979 1985 Chryeotile: Canada.............................. Mexico.............................. Unltsd Statu.................... Total.............................. 1.422 -- 93 1,315 1300 96 IBM 1300 -100 1,900 2300 so ISO 2,700 South America: Argentina.............................. Brazil.................................... Total.................................. 1 123 124 111 128 130 ISO 128 131 151 Europe: Bulgaria................................ Greece.................................. Italy........................................ w U.S.8.R.................................. Vugotlavia............................ Other.................................... Total.................................. Africa: Zimbabwe (Rhodeela).......... 8outh Africa, Republic of... Swaziland.............................. Other.................................... Total.................................. 1 -136 1436 10 * 2,581 249 79 37 1 398 24 -- 180 2300 20 6 2300 24 -150 anno 20 2BOO X IX IX xnnn X 6 3378 280 250 ax 120 120 IX 50 50 X 111 421 421 481 Aela: Afgnantatan.......................... China: Mainland...................... Taiwan.......................... Cypnia.......................................... India...................................... Japan.................................... Korea, Republic of.............. Turkey.................................. Total.................................. 13 250 2 34 19 7 14 13 382 15 16 X 280 280 3X 445 40 40 X 22 22 X 22 22 X 15 IS 20 16 16 X 383 393 478 Oceania: Australia............................... Worid chrysotile total___ 82 5,000 70 70 IX 5.706 5,715 7B9S Croddotlte: South Africa, Republic of... 187 210 210 230 Amosite: South Africa. Republic of... 41 110 110 IX Rhodesian chrysotile deposits retain importance in the world market. The generally tight supply would assure this, but the sporadic worldwide shortage of spinning grade fibers accentuates it. Although occasionally avail able, domestic and Canadian production of these long fibers has not satisfied U.S. demand during most of the past decade. Imports of the low-iron spinning-grade fibers needed in the electrical-insulation and textile seg ments of the industry are again entering due to theJanu ary 1980 Presidential order ending the United Nations sanctions against Rhodesia. Swaziland and the Republic of South Africa are also major producers of chrysotile. South Africa is presently the sole producer of amosite and crocidolite, which are in diminishing demand. "In continent" use of African asbestos is increasing, but the large majority is still sold on the world market. Five mine and mill operations were run by as many companies to produce asbestos in the United States in 1979. Three of the operations were in California and one each in Arizona and Vermont. The California companies are Atlas Mineral Corp., Calaveras Asbestos Ltd., and Union Carbide Corp. Jaquays Mining Corp. operates in Arizona, and Vermont Asbestos Croup, Inc., in Ver mont. Total employment in the five firms was about 380. The frilly integrated Johns-Manville Corp. is the larg est asbestos producer in Canada, and is a major supplier to the world market. Johns-Manville's many manufactur ing plants in the United States use large quantities of as bestos as a raw material. Turner A Newell, Ltd., based in Manchester, England, is another fully integrated company with worldwide operations. Its mines are in Rhodesia, the Republic of South Africa, and Canada. Its Canadian subsidiary, Bell Asbestos Mines, Ltd., has a mine at Thetford, Quebec, and a large minority holding in Cassiar Asbestos Corp., which has a mine in British Columbia. Bell acts as selling agent for Cassiar. Much of the world market for asbestos from the Republic of South Africa is met by Transvaal Consoli dated Land and Exploration, Ltd., which now owns the mines formerly belonging to the Cape Asbestos Co., Ltd., London. This once fully integrated company de veloped the mines there to supply its asbestos-product plants in Europe and North America. The larger international asbestos groups and their af filiations arc depicted in figure 1 (23).* Definitions and Grades Asbestos is a name applied to a number of naturally fibrous minerals. The principal variety is chrysotile from the serpentine group, a hydrous magnesium silicate with the theoretical formula MgaSi,Olt(OHV Other com mercial varieties (all amphiboles) are amosite, a trade name for a complex iron-magnesium silicate (mostly cummingtonite-grunerite), (Mg.Fe** ),Si,0,,(OH),; and crocidolite, a sodium-iron hydrous silicate variety of riebeckite, Na,Fe11*Fet,*Si,Otj(OH,F),. Of minor im portance are tremolite asbestos, C,(Mg,Fe** SisOtt(OH.F)t, and anthophyllite asbestos, (Mg,Fe**\ SiOrt(OH,F), (1,5). Chrysotile, the principal variety of commerce, is graded and grouped according to fiber length. Most of the groups are divided into several subgroups to comprise the commercial specifications. One producer alone offers its customers 420 grades of fiber in 1,320 different forms (18). For some uses, the chemical composition it im portant. Thus, for electric insulation an upper limit for the iron content may be specified. The methods of classification used in the principal producing countries are discussed in detail in a Bureau of Mines publication (5)- * ItaicBed numben in pamubean refer to tterm in the Its of refcwncci 9t ihe end of the cbapsrr. CTd071i6 ASBESTOS MAJOR INTERNATIONAL ASBESTOS MINING GROUPSL wmtuc o> S MANOTAVAUU. HMMU HMC MTBWimi MMHCRIM MIBHTt s one lennw acun mct gov. ac i nmc mc, n anmaBToi mc. tv- Miuxcarec, MB fBOUCa OTTOM. CNUM. Figure l. -- Major intenudonii ubeeoi mining group*. Figure* above arrow* indicate percent ownenhip of oompuy iharo. CTD007117 4 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS mmuKsns ran WtlKTIK AMCSTOC tNO USES, 187* Figure 2Asbestos fiber lengths. |I comnmiueinoN USES All un of asbestos are ai processed fiber. The proc essed chrysodle fibers are placed into the following groupings, which are based upon length of fiber: Croups 1, 2, and 3--These groups are composed of the longest fibers: the major end-use products include tex tiles, clothing, theatre curtains, different types of pack ings. fireproof textile products, woven brake linings, clutch facings, electrical insulation materials, and highpressure and marine insulation. Group 4. --Its major use is in asbestos-cement pipe, which is used mainly in transporting water, such as in municipal waterworks, irrigation, and conservation projects. Group 3. --This group is used in asbestos-cement sheets, flat and corrugated sheets, low-pressure asbestoscement pipes, and molded products. It it also used in tome paper products such as pipe insulation, wrappings, and other products, including brake linings and gaskets. Group 6. --The main consumption for this group is in asbestos-cement products, gaskets, brake linings, vinyl sheet backings, and millboard. Group 7. --The group is used in molded brake linings and clutch facings, as a filler in vinyl and asphalt floor tile, and in asphalt compounds, joint and insulation cements, roof coatings, plastics, and caulking com pounds. The ranges of sizes of asbestos classifications are shown in figure 2. Asbestos-product plants are located in 16 States, prin cipally in the eastern, southern and west coast areas. Asbestos is adaptable to more than 2,000 uses. Because of its high strength-to-weight ratio and resistance to higher temperatures, it is used in rockets and missiles. Figures.--Asbestos end uses, 1978. Amosite is used for felted insulation in blanket form for high-temperature service up to 480C. A loosely com pacted form is applied as a covering for marine turbines, jet engines, and Similar applications. Amosite is also used as a constituent of 85% magnesia insulation and light weight, fire-resistant marine partition board. Long-fiber croddolite ("blue asbestos") is woven into fabrics for locomotive-boiler lagging (in Great Britain)' and for acid-resistant packings and gaskets. The principal use of the shorter croddolite fibers is in making asbestoscement pipe. Tremolite asbestos and anthophyllite as bestos are used for chemical-resistant filters, as weldingrod coatings, and as fillers in various products. World end-use patterns are not discernible from avail able data, and projections of U.S. patterns to the rest of the world cannot be justified. In 1970, 70% of the world's asbestos was reportedly connected with products used in the construction industry (12). This still seems reasonable and can be used for planning purposes. The remaining 30% is divided among a myriad of uses. RESERVES-RESOURCES Whether the U.S. asbestos resources shown in table 2 can become reserves is debatable. Presently, the economic presures of remaining competitive while mak ing large capital expenditures to meet environmental regulations are being easily overcome by a buoyant world market in which demand exceeds supply. The strong de mand is expected to continue, but the industry feels that certain proposed regulations could not be complied with for technological reasons regardless of cost. The possible million tons of asbestos fiber at the Cop- CTD007118 ASBESTOS 5 Table 2.--World aabestoe resources' (Million motile tons) RMWVM' North Anwncc United Stltw.................... .................... Other................................ .................... f Total.............................. .................... 41 Other 98 98 Total 100 100 South America.......................... .................... Europe...................................... .................... Attica........................................ .................... Aaia.......................................... .................... Ocaania.................................... .................... 5 47 39 e e 48 18 89 13 48 7 13 4 12 World total.................... .................... 142 109 247 ' Derived In cooperation with U.S. Oeologleel Survey. ' Based on average US. price ol esbeetoe In 1STSof S2T3 per metric ton. peropolis, Calif., deposit are, under present environ mental regulations, economic. The future of the millions of tons of short fibers available in the Coalinga, Calif., area is doubtful, because of low demand and environ mental costs. The world reserve situation and its applications for the future remain unclear. The plans of the U.S.S.R. to bring more asbestos mines into production indicate huge reserves, but it is questionable whether we could call them "reserves" using our economic yardsticks. Also questionable is whether the economy and demand for as bestos would raise prices to the level that large Canadian resources would become economically attractive. Present trends in world demand indicate that those resources presently called "reserves" will be inadequate to meet that demand by the year 2000. Geology Most chrysotile asbestos deposits, including those of Vermont and California in the United States, Canada. Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Republic of South Africa, and the U.S.S.R., consist of irregular cross-fiber veini (closely packed fibers set at the right angle to the faces of the rock fractures) or slip-fiber zones (shear planes in rock, filled with fiber matted together parallel to the team) in mas sive serpentine. Such deposits commonly extend to un known depths. Those of Arizona, however, consist of more or less horizontal asbestos-bearing terpentine zones in thin-bedded limestone. Such deposits are generally less extensive and less persistent than those in massive ter pentine. Amosite and crocidolite of the Republic of South Africa occur-in. banded ironstones that are to folded and contorted that the veins are very irregular. TECHNOLOGY Exploration and Development Exploration and development are apparently increas ing throughout the world because of the increasing de mand for asbestos fiber and lack of production capacity to meet that demand. The asbestos showings in the Eagle Quadrant of Alaska have not yet proven to be worthy of production. IVSO IVM WTO MM MW SOW 1 Or* wmf roc* *BC**MS* of owortvr#** 8U88AU Of HNB ut owmtmmi of rm OflWOt Figure 4. -- Quebec production trends, from analysis of 1951 -70 data. Exploration in Canada remains quite active. Some large metal-minng firms are joining the asbestos firms in the searth for new asbestos deposits. Milling In Vermont and in the Copperopolis district in Cali fornia, the fiber-bearing rock is removed from an open pit. In the Coalinga district of California, the highly sheared ore is simply "plowed" and allowed to air-dry, and the coarse fraction is then screened out from the mill feed. In Arizona, a header is driven beneath the fiber zone; the zone is later blasted down and milled. The Canadian mines generally are open pits. The chrysotile of Zimbabwe, the Republic of South Africa, and Swaziland is obtained from underground mines. Amosite is obtained chiefly from large underground workmgs, and blue asbestos (crocidolite), from small open pits and shallow mines. The Soviet deposits are worked both in open pits and underground. Cyprus has large open pit workings. The data (20) analyzed by least-squares regression analysis and depicted in figure 4 tell a very interesting story about asbestos recovery from established mines over a period of time. In 1951, in the Quebec asbestos mines. 75% of the rock mined was milled, and 9.9% of that milled was recovered as fibers. About 20 years later (1970), only 52.2% of the rock mined was milled, and it yielded 6.1% fibers. Trend projection to the year 2000 indicates thru only 24.4% of the mined rock will be milled, and 2.9% of the milled material will be fibers. Many variables preclude prediction of the point when these trends would produce subeconomic resources, but they certainly portend escalating mining problems and costs. CTD007119 6 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS PtoCTjring Asbestos milling is a complex operation involving primarily the separation of fiber from rock and classifica tion of fiber by length. There has been little change in the basic methods described in a previous Bureau of Mines publication (4), and shown in figure 5. Special milling techniques have been developed for the matted short-fiber chrysotile of the Coalinga district of California, including grinding and wet-milling. In Copperopolis, Calif., Vermont, and Canada, the mills are large and complex. The fiber is classified in many grades, such as spinning, cement stock, and paper stock. In many mills, asbestos fiber is packed under pressure in five-ply paper and/or woven vinyl bags. Each pressurepacked bag contains 100 pounds of asbestos and occupies about ! cubic feet. With this pressure-packing, the as bestos measures 45 cubic feet per short ton. Asbestos-producer research and development pro grams are engaged primarily in lowering mining costs and refining processes. For example, at Johns-Manville's Jeffrey Mine in Quebec, 180-ton-capacity trucks are used to haul waste, pit rock, and overburden (21). Trucks of 91-ton capacity are used to feed the ore to a primary crusher, which can accept such a truckload from each of two sides simultaneously. Process refinement research and development has paid dividends in two ways. Techniques have been developed that successfully recover short fibers from waste tailing piles by reprocessing. These also reduce dust levels in the mills, aiding in worker protection. Automation and computer control of the asbestos mill ing circuits have been under study (7) and in operation. The new No. 6 mill at Jeffrey mine is a crusher-dryerconcentrator complex that is fully computer controlled (21). Woodsreef Mines Ltd. of Australia and its parent com pany, Woodsreef Minerals Corp. of Canada, are market ing a new wet-milling process. A prototype mill is pro posed for 1980 startup. I Current Research The largest area of research concerned with asbestos for the last few years has been in connection with the con troversial health aspects of the fibers. The National In stitute of Environmental Health Sciences, for example, started a multiyear animal-feeding study in 1976 to de termine the health effects of ingested (as opposed to respired) asbestos and asbestos-related minerals. Pre liminary results, released early in 1980 in a memo from the National Toxicology Program, indicate no difference in mortality rates between exposed and control animals and no carcinogenicity. In late 1976, the Bureau of Mines established the Par ticulate Mineralogy Unit now at Avondale, Md., to de velop a scientific basis for research into particle-related pollution problems and for the process of decisionmaking by regulatory bodies. The Bureau of Mines, which once had a research program aimed at either synthesizing analogs of the natural fibers or finding substitutes, is again doing asbestos synthesis research, and, by contract, research on substitutes. In late 1979, it was reported (16) that the Sodete Nationaie de I'Amiante (SNA), an arm of the Quebec Provincial Government, had under construction at Thetford Mines. Quebec, a new magnesium salts plant. Using asbestos mine tailings as feedstock, the initial production will be magnesium carbonate, but SNA projects a highly competitive magnesium metal of high purity late in 1982. SUPPLY-DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS Components of Supply During the entire history of the asbestos industry in the United States, domestic sources have been able to meet only a small percentage of U.S. requirements. Vermont and the Copperopolis district of California have been the only consistent U.S. sources of Quebec-type asbestos. Both are predominantly producers of short fiber, but the Vermont asbestos mines produce about 450 to 650 tons per year of spinning-length fiber. Mott of it is applied to nonspinning uses. Canada furnished 95% of all the asbestos tonnage im ported by the United States (fig. 6) (1974-78), but only a small portion (2%) was spinning-grade fibers. The com paratively small quantities of chrysotile received from Africa, particularly those from Zimbabwe, are more im portant than would appear on a tonnage basis because they consist largely of special kinds and qualities unob tainable elsewhere. Under emergency conditions, im ports of spinning fibers are of primary importance. Im ports of spinning fibers from Canada formerly averaged about 13,600 tons per year, but are decreasing. The longer fibers of chrysotile suitable for spinning represent a small fraction of the total production. Shortages of spinning-grade fibers have previously occurred, but no longer seem to be chronic. Imports of amotite, available only from the Republic of South Africa, into the United States from 1974 to 1978 averaged about 3,600 tons per year. This represented a large decrease from the preceding years when the U.S. Government was actively purchasing for the National stockpile (table 3). In October 1976, the Federal Pre paredness Agency announced a stockpile goal for amosite of 23,851 tons. (See "Strategic Considerations.") Imports of crocidolite, also available only from the Republic of South Africa, advanced from 11,000 tons in 1954 to 22,000 tons in 1966, but averaged only about 11,000 tons per year from 1974 to 1978. Apparently en vironmental fears reduced product markets. Figure 5. -- Flowsheet of a Canadian asbestos mill. Source: Industrial Minerals and Rocks (by permission). - CTD007120 FEEDER ORE FROM MINE PRIMARY CRUSHER | (JAW OR GYRATORY TYPE) THRUS |*1 vibrating GRIZZLY CANADIAN ASBESTOS MILL FLOWSHEET 7 CTD007121 8 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS ASBESTOS Figure 6.--Supply-demand relationship* for asbestos, 1978. UJHEAU OF MINCI UJ. DEPARTMENT OF THE IKTHOOH U .S. and World Production In 1973, U.S. production of asbestos fiber wu at an aUtime high; however, production in 1974 and 1975 did not reach that level owing to the early 1974 doling of two California minei that reprelented about 40% of the 197S production. The reopening of the Copperopolis, Calif., mine in 1976 by Calaverai Asbestos Ltd. brought domcstic production up somewhat. Canadian asbestos production continued to increase until 1974,when there was a small decline in production, followed by an additional 37% decrease in 1975. New production capadty will reportedly reach 472,000 tons by 1980(9). A total of 1.04 million tons per year of new capadty is expected to become available in world markets during 1973-80 (9). This indudes 272,000 tons of Soviet exports and production from mines in Australia, Colombia, Greece, New Zealand, Mexico, and Brazil. A mill fire, landslide, and protracted strike combined to reduce Canada's 1975 production to only 1.03 million tons--61% of its 1973 high--and prematurely widened the expected gap between supply and demand. Canadian production (all chrysotile) was 1.53 million tons in 1972 and 1977, 1.79 million tons in 1974, 1.03 million tons in 1975, 1.54 million tons in 1976, 1.42 mil lion tons in 1978, and 1.50 million tons in 1979. The spinning grades of chrysotile asbestos produced in Southern Rhodesia were of great importance during World War II and the early postwar years because they constituted the principal source of low-iron chrysotile suitable for shipboard electric-cable construction. They were of renewed importance each time a spinning grade shortage appeared. The only new source of asbestos with substantive amounts of spinning-grade fiber that has be come available in the postwar years is the low-iron depos it of chrysotile that was opened in 1953 in British Colum bia. Production of "crudes" from this mine dropped off considerably in 1979. Production of amosite in the Republic ofSouth Africa, which increased from an average of 18,000 tons per year during the 1940's to 97,000 tons in 1973, dropped to 79,000 tons in 1977, and was 41,000 tons in 1978. Croddolite is mined only in the Republic of South Af rica. African production of crocidolite has increased from an annual average of 9,000 tons during the 1940's to about 200,000 tons in the 1970's, but was 137,000 tons in 1978. U.S. and World Consumption The data in table 4 have been adjusted to reflect 100% CTD007122 ASBESTOS 9 TM* 3.--AsbMtot suppiy-demand ratatlonaMpa, 1969-79 (Thousand metric tons) Mine production: Untied States...................... .............. Root of WOftO...................... .............. Total................................ .............. U.S. mines.................................................. Shipments of Government stockpile ex- p***** Imports, chrysotile.................................... Imports, crocldolite.................................... Imports, amoefte........................................ Industry stocks, Jen. 1.............................. Tots! U3. supply.......................... rtbutton of U3. supply: Oavwnnwnt acquisition.................. Industry .toe*,. Dsc. 31.................. Exports.............................................. industrial demand............................ Apparent surplus (+ deficit (-) .. Flooring products............................ ........ Asbestos cement pipe.................... ........ Roofing product*............................ ........ Friction products.............................. ........ Asbestos cement sheet.................. ........ Packing and gaskets.................................. Insulation........................................... ........ Paper products................................ ........ Textiles.............................................. ........ Other.................................................. ........ Total demand........................ ........ P PrMMnlnary. 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 WORLD PRODUCTION 1974 1975 114 3,667 113 3431 119 3,462 120 3,674 136 4,036 103 4,012 3,761 1*44 3,561 3.794 4,171 4.115 COMPONENTS AND DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. SUPPLY 114 113 119 120 136 103 5 10 7 14 7 26 607 566 599 967 700 678 10 6 6 5 12 10 14 13 14 6 7 7 16 21 19 27 66 93 766 733 764 829 948 917 6 21 16 27 99 93 93 33 43 48 63 60 69 711 666 689 734 796 768 1 -1 -1 444 U4. OEMANO PATTERN 176 167 173 193 166 130 136 126 131 140 151 202 72 66 69 73 79 66 64 60 62 06 72 73 60 46 46 52 56 66 22 20 21 22 24 26 22 20 21 22 23 13 14 14 14 IS 16 57 14 14 13 14 16 18 140 133 137 147 156 66 711 666 668 734 796 768 86 4460 4,139 66 6 475 11 4 93 979 93 33 662 123 136 42 60 40 18 6 60 S 62 962 1976 105 4,960 6466 106 3 566 8 2 63 797 63 54 660 104 127 231 96 21 16 6 26 9 66 660 1977 92 5.129 5421 92 639 11 1 93 731 93 34 909 140 146 67 63 40 29 16 22 n8 06 1978 19799 93 5466 lira 93 6.196 U7S 93 69 662 466 17 14 11 a 63 749 sss S3 92 44 49 619 891 126 121 217 213 62 66 74 61 36 11 31 19 7 IS 91 30 64 810 901 Tabta 4.--U.S. asbMtoa consumption by end un, fffada, and typa, 1979 (Metric tons) _Aabeetoe cement pipe.................. Aebeetos cement sheet................ .... Flooring products.......................... Roofing product*............................ Packing and gatkata...................... __Insulation: Thermal........................................ Elacntcal.................................... Friction products............................ Coatings and compounds.............. Plastics.......................................... . ....Textiles............................................ Paper.............................................. Otftar................................................ ........ Total...................................... ........ (') lm than 50 matrtc tona Grades Grade Grade land 2 3 4 -- 146,100 - -. 100 -- 6,600 -- 1,300 1J00 3,100 Chrysolite Grade 5 Grade 6 31,600 100 44,400 100 1300 700 iann 11300 16300 400 Grade Grade 78 -- 9300 56300 46.000 5300 --- --- Total ehryao* the 178.400 10,700 120300 96300 19,100 Antho Crod- Amos' phyt* doUto he ttte 34,700 --- 100 o 200 -- "" .. --- ~- Total toe 213,100 10300 120300 66300 16300 -- 200 600 n nn M00 100 100 600 -- 600 3,400 400 100 n -- 400 200 200 164)0 n 800 o 400 2300 100 6,600 162,100 106300 1300 1300 5300 400 o -. 100 9,400 52300 8,100 3,100 36,100 16,700 1,400 -10,700 193300 -- 10,100 - - 5300 - - 60300 - - 19300 - . 2J00 - - 5300 - - 900 -- 24300 -- nppnnn -- -- -000 300 -- 36,700 -----1J00 1300 10,100 5300 300 61300 - - 16300 - 2400 - - 6300 - - 600 -- 300 NM00 of the apparent consumption. The 11 major uses in 1979 were ai follow*: Aibetto* cement pipe (58%), aibetto* ce ment iheet (2%), coating* and compound* (5%), floor ing product* (21%), friction product* (11%). imulation (5%), packing and gaiket* (5%), plastics (1%), roofing product*(10%), texdle*(l%), andother(7%). World contumption of aiboto* i* increasing at a much faiter rate than that in the United Sate*. Maintaining the4.4% predicted growth rate may not be pomible with in the limit* or production capacity. The recent econo mic recession had no apparent effect on world afbeato* demand, becauae the Canadian production trouble* in 1975 have masked trend development*. World Trade If one were to remove from consideration the asbesto* produced in Mainland China (nearly all is used domesti cally) and that produced in the U.S.S.R. (most of which i* used domestically or in other COMECON countries), a CTD007123 10 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS Flbor CreddoM*...................................................... Amott.......................................................... CnrytotlW...................................................... QI4M.............................................................. Aluminum...................................................... 3t**f 9137 ...................................................... Tabtu S.--Ctiaraettriaito of tom* Abort (6) TmO* strangtli Young'* rnodutu* Kgfcm1 36400 21400 20400 17400 1400 3,700 IMn* x 10 * 900 200 400 200 294 924 Kgfem' 1712x10' 1934x 10* 196.4x 10 * 004x 10 * 704 x 10 * 1904x 10 ' LMn' 244x10' 21.9x10* 224x10* 04x 10 * 9.9 x 10 27.0x10* Specific gravity 12 3.1 2.4 44 2.7 74 truer picture of Canadian prominence emerge*. In the rest of the world, Canada had 59% of the market in 1979; the Republic ofSouth Africa, 10%; Italy, 5%; and the United State*, 4%. Canada's main market* are the United Sate* and Europe, but there i* a comidermble trade in the Far Ea*t. South Africa aeU* mod of its aibesto* to European and Africa tells most of its asbestos to European and African companies. The market for Italian asbestos is mainly in Europe. Recycling Asbestos fibers cannot be recycled in their common role of reinforcing a hast matrix because removal from the matrix would destroy the fibers. There are few asbestos uses (mainly textile) that have uncombined fibers in the end product. When these products are no longer useful, niether is the asbestos be cause of the physical and/or chemical changes that have made it a different mineral with lest strength or shorter fiber* of lets value that reclamation costs. Thus, asbestos is a nonrenewable natural resource. Substitute There is great interest among present and potential manufacturers of both organic and inorganic fiber* in acquiring tome portions of the asbestos market. The en vironmental problems with asbestos keep reminding peo ple of the market and iu present vulnerability. Few sub stitutes, however, will be able to meet the four criteria below, which, even if the substitute is environmentally acceptable, must be met in order to acquire any substan tial part of the asbestos market; 1. The substitute must approach the strength of as bestos; 2. The substitute mutt have the chemical inertness of asbestos; 5. The substitute must have the durability of as bestos; and 4. The substitute must approach the cost of as bestos. There are several synthetic inorganic fibers available commercially, and more are becoming available each year. Most efforts seem to be aimed at thermal insula tion, which constitute* only a small portion of the as bestos market. The most desirable characteristic of as bestos, its tensile strength, is compared with other fibers in table 5. Glass-reinforced cement, now available commercially in the United Sates and Europe, could affect the future of the asbestos industry. The glass used is a high-zirconia, alkali-resistant fiber developed by the United Kingdom's Building Research Sation. However, several drawbacks to glass-reinforced cement products have been reported (14): The glass fibers have inferior drainage character istics; they are formed by a costly spray-suction process; their strength gradually fails with time; and they cost about four timet at much u the equivalent asbestos. The exotic and very expensive inorganic whiskers, such at sapphire (AlfOs), are the only synthetic fibers that equal or surpass the strength of asbestos. Even the newer inorganic fibers available commercially (11) are not as strong as glass and cannot be considered seriously compe titive with asbestos. The present shortages and projected demands indicate serious depletion of present reserves by the end of the century. Accelerated research is necessary to find substi tute fibers that will have at least some of the attractive as bestos characteristics of strength, chemical inertness, heat resistance, and economy. STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS During World War II, controls were in effect to re strict exports of asbestos needed in the military program. These controls were removed by executive order on Sep tember 10, 1945. During the Korean war, the supply sit uation again became acute, and in 1950 and 1951 con trols were invoked that required licenses for export of all grades of asbestos. The license requirement was removed for the nonspinning grades in 1953 and for spinning fi ber* in 1954; however, export licenses are still required for shipments to nations that have centrally controlled economies. The United Sates joined the United Nations embargo of Zimbabwean products in 1967. By 1969 all Zimbab wean asbestos except occasional small lot* released from bonded warehouses or the Government stockpile had dis appeared from the U.S. market. In 1971, an exception to the sanctions for strategic materials, including asbestos, was enacted by Congress. Significant amount* of Zim babwean asbestos were appearing at U.S. ports by the time the sanctions were reimposed early 1977. The Presi dential lifting of sanctions inJanuary 1980 should see the the reemergence of Zimbabwean asbestos on the U.S. market. OTD007124 ASBESTOS 11 Mattflol OMyooDIo (matrtc tons).......................... CraeMoMoOnoMciont)........................ tanoMo (mottle ton*)............................ TaM* Stoofcpto **tu*-11-90-90 QoU 2,722 ....... 16422 Toal Imwwonr 0034 2,1*1 3*461 AuMoWW WdUsaW -----2,1*1 14,731 Safes, i2montt Chrysotile and amosite are the only type* of asbestos remaining o^MH|^m^list3. The stockpile goal nac^m^educed to zero, but a 1977 mora- The uatu* of the aibeMoa in the stockpile ai of Novem ber 50,1980, is shown in table 6. The United States is historically dependent upon for eign sources for about 90% of its requirements for all grades and types of asbestos. The principal sources of low-iron, spinning grade chrysotile asbestos are British Columbia in Canada and Zimbabwe. A small amount of low-iron, long-fiber chrysotile is available from Arizona. The only source of commercial grades and quantities of amosite is a limited area in the Transvaal, Republic of South Africa. The United States is completely dependent on foreign sources for croddolite. Although the United States it an asbestos-importing country, there is some ex port trade, because domestic chrysotile producers have significant markets in Japan and Latin America. There are sotne reexports offoreign fiben. The Asbestos Corp.'s bulk shipments of concentrate (50% fibers) from its Asbestos Hill Mine in Canada to its new mill in Nordenham, Federal Republic of West Ger many, was novel. The operation, started in 1971, may portend other changes in the world market, since it has been singularly successful. ECONOMIC FACTORS AND PROBLEMS Price* and Costs Prices for Canadian asbestos continued to climb, with a 7.1% increase in 1979. Quebec chrysotile fiber prices in 1979, f.o.b. mine, ranged from Can$125 per metric ton for 7T, which is the shortest of the regular grades generally produced, to Can$1,770 for the longest of the milled fibers. Crude No. 1 was quoted at Canft.550 per ton. British Columbia (Castiar) told for Can$S75 for CZ toCan$3.991 per ton for Crude No. 1. Vermont chrysotile, produced in grades similar to those in Canada, ranged in price in 1979 from $110 per ton for Group 7 to $651 for Group 4, f.o.b. mine. Arizona fibers ranged in price from $110 for Group 7 to $5,507 per ton for No. 1 crude, f.o.b. Globe, Ariz. The average price for amosite, f.o.b. U.S. ports in 1979, was $499 per ton; for croddolite, prices averaged $685 per ton. The total value of the 93,554 tons of asbestos produced in the United States during 1979 was $29 million, averag ing $310 per ton, f.o.b. mine site. The imports of asbes tos for consumption were valued at $155 million. TaM* 7.--Tlw-prie* relationship* (or a*b**to* IHft list ino itei tm iaas its# ISM 1SS7 1666 ltd 1*70 1*71 1*71 itre 1fT4 1*6 1*6 1*77 1*1* 1*7* Vaar Awwjnwimipfioi,dollifiptfiiii(rt6 low Actual pftea aaadoneonttart 1676MM *.76 10030 10440 106J6 104J6 101 JO 1Q6J0 107J4 110J2 11014 10*06 121Jt 1*47 1203* 12*66 194.72 194.76 13*1* 22*91 270*0 2724S mat 2W0 22310 23043 23140 22343 21644 22742 22042 21073 2101* 2124* 212.14 203.1* 1(04* 16*62 17*64 100J2 2*94 2*342 2724* 242.16 Taxes and Tariffs There are no special taxes on the asbestos industry. Producers are granted a depletion allowance of 22% on domestic production and 10% an foreign production. Domestic asbestos producers have no tariffprotection. Transportation The Quebec and Vermont deposits are within easy rail haul to most of the plants manufacturing asbestos pro ducts in the industrial areas of the Eastern United Sates. The African deposits are remote from the principal mar kets and have high transportation expenses, although Af rican markets are increasing. Transportation from British Columbia, Canada, to any market area is costly. The Arizona producer also has transportation problems. The mines are in the vicinity of Globe, the nearest rail head, with an average haul to the railroad of about 80 kilometers, compounded by the distance to the major consumption centers in the northeast. Consumption of asbestos is also growing along the west coast of the United Sates and other areas where fiber from California would be competitive, in terms offreight rata, with that from Quebec. Packing for ocean transport, either way, is changing to containerization. South African shippers have developed packaging techniques that conform to our container re quirements. Western U.S. producers package their ex port asbestos in intermodal containers. Rail shipments 12 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS Tabic 8.--Energy used by the U.S. aabmtoa mining Industry Souroa and unit Haavy fusion.............. ................................ thousand gallon*____ Naturalgaa................ ................................ million cuMc foot____ Etoctrtcity.................... .................... thousand kilowatt hours____ Dtstsioli.................... liquid potrotsum gas . .................................................... do........... 0--ollns.................... Total ansrgy, thousand kilowatt hours............................ Ussdln mining 852 --2441 412 14 U 50,192 Ussdln milling 1445 168 44,974 133 166 12 166,994 Totalusod 2.197 168 47415 545 182 64 2*116 Total (thousand kilowatt hours) 9^.144 50,736 47.615 22,147 6,967 2443 228,186 Table 9.--Energy consumed In the production of 1 metric ton of cleened and graded chryaotHe asbestos' Stags and typo of hiol Mining:* Waaal tool oil................ Bunker eCoH'.............. Karoeons...................... Qaaollns........................ Primary crushing: Electric .. Secondary crushing: Electric Drying: Bsctrlc.......................... No.2fuaioU*................ 6unksr6CoU *.............. Propane.......................... Total.......................... MHUng and grading: Electric. Amount1 Equivalent thousand Btu ____ 11.12 gallons............................ 1.46 gallons.............................. 044 gallon...................... ........ OS1 gallon................................ ........ 7 kilowilt-hours........................ 75 kilowatt-hours...................... 42 kilowatt-hours............ ......... 044 gallon................................ 15.40 gallons.................... ........ O.i2gallon................................ ........ 249 kHowatt-hours.......... ........ 550 1452 270 6 77 2,757 67 963 560 90 1B89 13 3412 uae ........ 10406 1 Mlnfrplsnt transportation not Indudsd Uqulda oomortad from ttw Imports! gallons (Imp gal) to U.8. gallon us ing limp gar . 1JSOSMUS. gal. Baasd on a lags Quebec mmo Hfi a Sto-1 ora ratio, 5% fiber par ton of ora,and 28 to 30 tnchoo of nUna pradpltatlon par year. ` Baaodon oaaorte mteaofIMjMS Btufgal. 1 booed on moragi oWerte ,aluooHI.&3O000 Stu par banal. Saaadon average calortcvaluaof 3,5*00008tu par banul- Source: University of Illinois (17). handle about 80% of asbestos shipments, but these are not yet being containerised. OPERATING FACTORS AND PROBLEMS Environmental Requirements In 1970, Congress ehacted "The Clean Air Act." Among the provisions of that act was that the Adminis trator, of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could designate substances as "hazardous air pollutants." One of three substances named to the first list on March SI, 1971, was asbestos. This was the first Federal agency to address the growing controversy about the effects of as bestos dust upon the health of humans. There is insufficient space to document the conflicting reports, and insufficient data to evaluate the validity of each. The few areas ofconsensus are as follows: 1. Prolonged occupational exposure to heavy concen trations of asbestos dust, in the absence of personal pro tective devices, can measurably increase the chances of a person contracting the type of pneumonoconiosis called . asbestosis. 2. Exposure to asbestos may increase the chances of contracting the very rare type of cancer called mesothel ioma. S. Asbestos workers exposed to heavy concentrations of dust without respiratory protection, and who are alto heavy smokers, have increased chances of contracting lung cancer. 4. The evidence concerning the possible hazard from ingestion of asbestos particles is contradictory and incon clusive (10). There is no consensus about a threshold limit value (an acceptable concentration that would minimize danger from exposure), or even a method of measuring it. EPA indicates there is no acceptable way to measure asbestos in the ambient air. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) of the Labor Department uses a membrane filter and microscopy method with a present standard of two fibers greater than 5 micrometers in length per milliliter of air. The method used by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) approaches the OSHA method, and uses the two-fiber level. The con troversial aspects of the matter appear to be long-lasting. An example of litigation in the controversy is the Re serve Mining Co. case, in which the company was sued by the Federal Government primarily for polluting Lake Superior with asbestos bearing tailings from its taconite plant, and secondarily for air pollution with asbestos fibers. The judgment rendered said there was no indica tion of harm from ingested asbestos, but that both the water and air pollution must be abated in a reasonable time. The controversy had no effect in the marketplace in 1975 and 1974, in which yean there were record high consumption and production. Any effects in 1975 and 1976 were masked by the shortages attendant to the Canadian production troubles and were not discernible. Much research was funded by Congress to answer en vironmental questions. Some of these questions are as fol lows: 1. Is asbestos by and ofitself a true carcinogen? 2. Are there significant differences, under the same conditions ofexposure, between the toxicides ofdifferent types of asbestos? 5. What it the dose-response relationship to asbestos dust exposure, or what exactly is a safe level of exposure? 4. Are there any physiological effects from the asbes tos in the ambient air? 5. Is there a valid correlation between measurements of asbestos dust by the various methods? CTD007126 14 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS Tabto 10.--Protection* and forecasts lor U.S. ssbestos demand by and uae (Thousand metric tons) 2000 Contingency forecasts for United States Endues 1978 Stotisttcsi Forecast range Low High Probable ASbCStOS Cement pip*.................................. Asbestos csmtnt shsst................................ Flooring products.......................................... Roofing products.......................................... Pocking snd goskots...................................... Friction products.......................................... Insulation........................................................ Pspor.............................................................. Textiles.......................................................... Other .............................................................. Tots).................................................... 217 290* 130 270 210 36 70* 0 20 0 126 240* 110 220 170 62 160* 130 210 120 31 38* 0 30 29 74 120* 0 70 60 7 4* 0 10 0 9 51* 27 40 39 3 0* 0 10 0 64 17* 0 40 0 619 -- 397 920 620 - statistical projections, provided by the Branch of Economic Analysis, am derived from regression analysis baaed on hiatorfeal tlma aariaa data and torecaata of economic Indicatora such aa ONP, FOB Index. Projection equations with a coefficient of determination (R aquamd) leaa than 070am indicated by an asterisk O. substitutes. The low end of the range for ssbestos con struction products was obtained by assuming a continua tion of the 20-year trend. This shows the probable total loss of any asbestos cement sheet and insulation markets. On the high side of the demand range, the most appar ent opportunities for increases appear to be asbestos-ce ment products, which compete with lumber and other building products, many of which aTe increasing rapidly in price. The growth rate for asbestos-cement products could average 0.6% per year. Use of asbestos in floor tile has been increasing in recent years because of shortages and higher prices for competing materials. Paper products are used in electrical appliances as well as in construction. The consumption of asbestos for such uses is expected to grow more than 1 % per year. Asbestos demand for friction products was forecasted to the year 2000 to grow at an annual rate of 2.2%. This figure was based on a formula derived from analysis of total asbestos demand modified by the estimated growth in the automobile industry. Asbestos is an important part of many types of friction materials for use in automo biles, trucks, and other transportation equipment. Based on an estimated number of motor vehicles produced in the year 2000, and on the assumption that the use of as bestos per vehicle will remain below present levels, the forecast for asbestos demand in user-operated vehicles is estimated to be 60,000 tons. An increased number of transportation vehicles and equipment using parts made of asbestos or maintaining the present quantity used per vehicle could result in a demand as high as 70,000 tons. The probable demand for asbestos in textiles was es timated to be zero tons in year 2000 at indicated by statis tical projections. The projected growth of asbestos demand in electrical appliances coupled with design improvements that in crease asbestos use could result in increased asbestos de mand. On the other hand, there are other materials used as insulation that could replace asbestos for some pur poses. Competition from other substitute material is likely to be important, and a competitive factor is considered. As suming that there will be some increased use of asbestos for such items as electrical appliances and firefighting equipment, the high forecasted demand could be 10,000 tons in the year 2000. With low-cost, short-fiber asbestos available from domestic sources in large quantities, there should be a significant impact on the mineral filler market for a wide range of end products, particularly in products that must withstand high-temperature or corrosive conditions. The myriad small markets covered in "Other" seem to be the most vulnerable to environmental pressure, and many probably will vanish. Adequacy of Supply The United States has been dependent on foreign sup plies of asbestos for certain essential and strategic grades. Canada supplies most of our requirements for chrysotile, with South Africa supplying amosite and crocidolite. The increasing world demand coupled with the fore casted shortfall in foreign supplies should encourage de velopment of domestic resources. Such development of domestic asbestos deposits, if feasible under environment regulations and coupled with advancing technology in the use of substitutes, could shift our position from heavy reliance on foreign supplies for this mineral. Domestic resources of chrysotile are found mostly in California, Vermont, and Arizona. Although deposits are known to exist also in Montana. Oregon, Wyoming, and a few other States, production from these has been negligible. California has the greatest potential of be coming a substantial producer of short-fiber asbestos. In addition, anthophyllite asbestos is occasionally produced in North Carolina. Nine of the major asbestos-product-manufacturing firms have captive fiber sources through U.S. and Canadian mines, either wholly or partially owned (22). The total present production capacity of these mines ex ceeds 1.8 million tons per year. United States and Canadian chrysotile resources are more than ample to meet the high of the forecast domes tic demand for the year 2000, but could affect Canadian CTD007128 ASBESTOS 15 Tabta 11.--Summary of forecasts of U.S. and rcat-of-worM aabaatoa demand (Thousand metric tons) 1978 2000 Forecast range Low High 1990 PtotwMa 2000 United Suits: Tout............................ Cumulative................ Raatotwortd: Tool............................ Cumulative................ World: Total............................ Cumulative................ 619 ... 4,535 ... 5,154 -- 397 10,664 SMS 153,071 10.203 163,955 920 16367 14,420 193309 15,340 209376 620 7.440 7.720 73,433 6340 60373 620 13.640 11,967 172,461 12307 166,121 nWNM Average annual growth rata 1976-2000 (percent) 0.0 -- 4.5 --- 4.1 -- Rasters,.......................................... Cumulative demand, 1976-2000... Table 12.--Adequacy ol UB. and world aabaatoa rssswei (Thousand metric tone of aabaatoa) United State* 4300 13340 Rest of World 136300 truss wono toiai 142300 166336 capability for supplying a major part of the demand in the rest of the world. The relationship between Quebec producers and U.S. consumers could be altered if the Provincial Government carries through on its announced interest in nationalizing (7J) a portion of the industry. Asbestos to meet relatively small requirements for amotite will continue to come from the Republic of South Africa unless deposits of a similar asbestos are dis covered in other countries, or unless adequate substitutes become available at competitive prices, thereby provid ing acceptable options to the consumers. Crocidolite as bestos will alto be obtained from the Republic of South Africa, and perhaps from Australia or Bolivia, so long as it remains competitive with chrytotile, but substitution is practicable in end uses, and continuation of crocidolite supply is not particularly significant. No real shortfall is expected in asbestos in 2000 con trary to the data shown in table 12. Either the demand will decrease at accelerated rates or higher prices and new technology will make current subeconomic deposits into useful resources. U.S. ASBESTOS PRODUCTION, DEMAND. AND PROJECTED TRENDS TO 2000 Possible Supply-Demand Changes Demand for asbestos in the United States for domestic consumption in 1979 was 501,000 tons, about 17% of which came from domestic sources; most of the balance was obtained from Canada and the Republic of South Africa. Annual requirements for asbestos in the year 2000 are not expected to reach 0.9 million tons, the high of the forecast range (table 10). If the 1978 ratio of domestic production to demand prevails in the year 2000, the domestic production component required to meet the maximum expected demand would be 138,000 tons. This production could be accomplished from known resources by more extensive use of the low-cost, very-short-fiber Coalings, Calif., material. Historical and projected domestic production and demand for as bestos are shown in table 13 and figure 7. The trend pro jections for demand are low compared with the forecast w m \m nn zx Figure 7. --U.S. nhestos production, demand, and projected trends to 2000. CTD007129 16 MINERAL FACTS AND PROBLEMS Tibi** 13.--Comparison of U.S. asbestos production and demand 1953-79,1990, and 2000 (Thousand mstnc ton*) Yttr 19U 1969 i960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1966 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979' U.S. domtnd 621 684 643 604 659 657 738 721 730 654 741 711 666 689 734 795 788 700 660 609 619 561 US production 40 42 41 48 48 60 92 107 114 112 110 114 113 119 120 136 103 89 106 92 93 93 1990 2000 `620 *620 * Eallmstsd. ' Not Included In toracast base 1 Probabla torscaata from tablo 11. ' 21-yaar trsnd proiactlon. 140 170 *40 *00 range, which is caused mainly by the time periods chosen for the trend projections. The demand growth for asbes tos averaged about 1.0% per year from 1954 to 197S, about 0.4% per year from 1956 to 1975, and was nega tive from 1968 to 1978. Possible Technological Progress Although asbestos was synthesized in the late 1920's, and much work has been done since that time, an economical method of synthesis has not yet been an nounced. Technology must come up with competitive synthetic asbestos or asbesdform products and make them available in significant quantities before the end of the century for potential world demand to be met, unless significant price increases convert resources to reserves. The mineral raw materials needed for production of syn thetic asbestos and other inorganic fibeis are abundant. Among the factors that should tend to increase asbes tos demand within the next decade is the newly de veloped potential for large-scale production of lowpriced asbestos from domestic deposits, which should in time spur research into new uses and ways to substitute short-fiber asbestos for the longer, more expensive types. The 1975 shortages drove some manufacturers to try such substitution with a degree of success. The domestic product is being used in asbestos-cement pipe and un doubtedly can be used in other products by adapting the production processes. Work is under way which is aimed at developing largescale asbestos uses. Foremost among these is the potential for use in asphalt paving materials, which must bear up under various difficult conditions. Examples are airport Tabta 14.--IncsMMd uss of fHlora in plastic* In tha United States, 1975,1990,1990, and 2000 Consumption, 1,000 metric tons Materiel 1075 1900 1000 2000 Alumina tffliydrate...................... Asbestos...................................... Carbonates'................................ Celluloslc types'........................ Class .......................................... Silicas ........................................ Silicates *...................................... Talc minerals................................ Miscellaneous ............................ Total.......................................... 50 100 700 40 5 25 6 40 14 1*00 200 350 1,500 00 15 80 15 200 50 2*00 000 800 3,500 300 50 300 50 000 200 0.000 1*00 1.700 0,000 500 200 500 100 1.000 500 15,000 SOURCE: Modem Atestlca and Industry eetlmatea ' Calcium carbonate, chalk, limestone, etc. ' Cellulose, cork, cotton, eheuflour, woodflour, starch, etc. 1 Beads, bubbles, (takes, apherae, ate. Dose not Include liber reinforce ments such aa chopped strand, filaments, yam, ribbon, mat, etc. * Novacullte, perlite, sand, synthetic anIces, quartz, etc. Other than asbestos and talc: Includes clay, mica, nephellne syenite, etc. ' Plastic apherae, comminuted reams, castor oil, wool, metals, various In organic compounds, etc. (Csortoey Modem Wssffcs, October, r875). runways and hangar areas, which are subject to hightemperature, corrosive effects ofjet exhausts; street curb ing, which must be able to absorb shock and forces from the wheels of motor vehicles; and resurfacing of old roads. Resurfacing requires about 20 tons of asbestos per kilometer of 12 meter pavement and probably has the greatest potential for large-volume asbestos use. Technological changes in road building methods could result in capping new highways with asbestos-rich asphalt. The environmental effects of fully encapsulated asbestos, such as this, are considered minimal. Table 14 (above) from a recent publication shows that asbestos may play an important part in energy con servation in the automobile and other steel-consuming industries!/.?). If these applications should develop, then three times as much asbestos would be consumed in 2000 as in 1978. The lighter weight plastics contemplated for use can be even lighter in weight and have better engi neering characteristics when reinforced by asbestos. Medical problems connected with asbestos have been under intense study in recent years and undoubtedly will continue to receive increasing attention in the future. In addition to study and medical treatment of the effects of asbestos on the respiratory system, work should be aimed at improved methods for protecting workers in mines, mills, and fabricating plants. Among the possibilities for solving the problems are much greater use of automation where feasible, remote control of fabrication processes, improved protective equipment and respiratory devices, and development and strict enforcement of safety proce dures. Remaining Problems One of the most serious problems confronting the do mestic consuming industry is U.S. dependence for the greater part of its supply of asbestos on foreign sources. CTD007130 ASBESTOS 17 About 85% of the supply ofchrysotile and all of the amosite and crocidolite comes from foreign countries. Com plete dependence upon foreign supply for strategic grades can be minimized by adequate stockpiles. Adequate information on the methods of mining and processing asbestos and development of equipment is available, but cost data are lacking. Information is avail able on the principal end products in which asbestos is utilized; however, there it no information on the wastage that takes place in the manufacturing of the end item. The number of materials that are economically com petitive with asbestos it limited. Although much research has been directed to synthesizing fibers that have proper ties similar to asbestos, it has met with only limited suc cess. The development of practical technologic advances in the broad area would substantially improve the supply outlook. Health hazards are present in the whole sequence of mining, processing, and utilizing asbestos; and the ex panding use of this material demands continued atten tion to the problem. Asbestos is not an energy-intensive mineral; on the contrary, it has a long association with energy-conserva tion products. Nonetheless, energy-conservation prac tices need further development in all phases of the min ing, milling, and utilization of asbestos. REFERENCES 1. Ampian. S. Asbestos Minerals and Their Nonasbestos Ana logs. Pres, at Microfibers Symp., Pennsylvania State Uni versity, University Park, Pa., Aug. 2S-25, 1976. 11 pp; available from W. J. Campbell, Bureau of Mines, Re search Center. Avondale. Md. 2. BatteUe Columbus Laboratories. Energy Use Patterns in Metallurgical and NonmetaHic Mineral Processing (Phase 7 --Summary of the Results of Phases*, 5, and 6). BuMines Open File Rept. 117(2)-76. 1976, 51 pp. Avail able for reference at Bureau of Mines libraries in Tusca loosa. Ala.. Avondale. Md.. Twin Cities, Minn.. Rolls. Mo., Boulder City, Nev., Reno, Nev., Albany, Oreg.. Salt Lake City. Utah, and at the Central Library, U.S. Department of the Interior. Washington, D.C.; and from National Technical Information Service. Springfield. Va.. PB261 151/AS. 5. Bowles. O. The Asbestos Industry. 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