Document zjXaEoq4vrdpNn8dzJMbQ7q7

ijw w iw w iwpywipp ijw i LIA15884 TBS CExacrso w s l d cr ix a d a s s q k 7CR wTM" WOl_____ 12:00 K00H TOTTOMf. k/21/6k rl. L STUMS Director General ImI and Zioc Development Associations London, England As a frequent speaker at these Beetles Z should Ilka to IV how pi--aaat It la to be talking to you at a ties whan tba laad and aloe Industry la enjoying sued prosperity. lot only la world eeosuaptloa at both Betels at a racord level, ud still rising, but prleaa too ere at tbelr highest for aeay years. Thla la certainly aa encouraging atata of affairs, especially aa It aaaaa likaly to continue for aoaa tlaa yet. (mrUalMi, thla vary proaparlty baa now baeaaa a eauaa for concern aa vail aa satlafactlon aloca it baa brought vlth It tba danger of shortages aad exceptionally high prleaa which la thalr tun encourage substitution. Tbs present poaltloo of tba two aatala la both fascinating aad complss, and Is directly llnkad to thosa chances la technology and Industrial activity throughout the world which have bean such a feature of tbs post-war years. I think va can bast assesa the future for laad and dne by first looking at tba way they have developed In recant years aad than settij* these develop* aenta In the broader world picture. Than Z will look at tba way ahead aa beat X can, bearing la Bind that va are still in the Midst of a period of rapid change. Changes In the Growth in Dsaand to* of tba Boat important changes in recant years for load and slno has bean the acceleration la tha growth of cons\aptlon. Tree world oonatation of laad, after Increasing on average by about 2 per cent a year In the period (PrasaataA et the Joint Session -SFtEo Aasrlcaa Sine Institute and Lead Industries Association, St. Louis, Missouri, April 21, 196k) nmimw wifpjr . -wiaw UMise. lj|lfp|^^ hi I'.ntiiei 11rbhrtMiHMaateaiiirfito rri r LIA15885 -'V 1 Bi 1*. STUBS -8 - between 1900 aad 1950, increased by about 8-1/2 par east a yaar la the next decade, and than by oaarly b par cant la 1968 and by ovar b-l/8 par caat la 1963. Hoc abova a similar pattern - rising oc average by 2-1/2 par eaat a yaar over the flrat half of tha century, by 3 par eaat a yaar between 1990 and i960, by ovar b-l/2 per eaat la 1962 aad by about 5-1/2 par eaat la 1963* Undoubtedly these are encouraging treads but It mast be recognised that they conceal tbs different rates of development that have takaa place la various parts of tha world. Although free world land eonsvaptlon rose from aa average of about 1.9 Billion tons* a yaar la tha period 1952-1956 to about 2-l/2 alllloD tons la 1963, this growth mi by no nans evenly distributed. Conassptloo in tha United States, although fluctuating a great deal, aad despite recant Increases, has not grown appreciably and so now represents a aaallar proportion of tha world total. European coaaunptlon, however, has risen by nearly bo par eaat In the last tan years aad now exceeds that of tha United States. St Japan consumption went up 2-1/2 tines in this period, and thare was also a worth while growth In tha total consumption In other countries although they still account for only 12 par cent of tha whole. The picture for nine is such tbs sane. World coneunptloa rose from an average of 2 mlllloc tons a year between 1952-1956 to nearly 2.9 Billion tons In 1963. Again thare has been llttls change In ths united States as coagtared with tbs aaas bo per cent Increase In Europe. In Japan cooaiagrtlcn actually trebled during tha period. Orowth In other eountrlee has bean en couraging although, as with lsad, they still tabs only the aaas proportion of ths total aa tan years ago. netrle tons are used throughout, and represent either natal enntsnt of oren and concentrates or tonnages of refined lead or line. 1 i JL>,H'll*ni. j i . "mgmm mm "W  - i ii...i..ini^MiiiWiiiMnirtfiinr^tii.iii if iri linv. i ti TLIA15886 mm - 3 - t. u OTuns Bouewer, these dlfferenc-- la rat-- of growth In varlou* tmi, although laportant la the--air--, auat ba considered la ooajunction with change* that bar* takaa place la th* pattarn of *ad u* oooajaptioo, taking Into aceooat th* u**a of laad and line la all for--. Before th* seccod world war th* aaln use of laad waa la oahl* ah--thing, fallowed by *b**t and pip* for building, plg--nt* and than battarl--. 1990 a a*w pattam waa developing and, although eahl* aheethlng waa atlll th* --la outlet, battarl** war* than la aaeood plao* and building uaaa and pig--ota had declined la l^ortano*. tow battarlaa, thank* to th* growth la th* u*a of autoaobU** - particularly la th* Udted State* - beta taco-- th* --la outlet taking about JO par c--t of tha world total. Cable abeethii* baa aaooad place, taking about 20 par oaat of tha total, although In --at countrl-- out- alda tha USA It atlll cowa flrat. la Xuropa battarl-- bar* only Juat caught up with ahaet and pip*. Although tatraathyl account* for about 1J par cant of US eonavavtlon, at pr--ant It takaa only 5 par cant In Kurop* aod wary little eleawhar*. Tha cine aod uaa pattarn baa alao changed algnlflcantly. Bafora the war th* aejor outlet* war* for br--a, for ahaet dne la building and for g*1*n- nldng. Qr tba aarly flftl-- galwaaliiag and other protactlwe dne had replaced br--a -- the aoet laportaot and u-- aod, because of Jewel op--ate In tha USA, die e--ting had beoo-- aore significant la tha world picture than ah--t dne - a traditional building us* largely confined to Burope. Zinc odd*, though atlll laportaat, wu also declining. Bow th* naw pattern h-- dawaloped awan further with galwanidng hating baeo-- a--lly th* larg--t uaa, taking t nearly hO par cant of the total world eon*--ptlon, followed by dl* c--ting and br--a each with about 20 par cant, and ahaet doe with 10 par cant. ! r imJggiii(,nnf ii pm m u j 'i) w p iw 1 PP*l'BfiJ'.wp" l 'jHr'l^ . 1 atmmipjMJLPlL i ii tm pffppi W m w m m m m m m m m m .* W M PW fim m u l - ' - w * X. U STUBBS .% *t*ta these world trends toad to conceal differences la tbo pattern at consuaptloo between Individual countries. Tar example, tine di oaetlig and galvanising aro of about equal l^mrUaoe la tha feltad Statoo, together taking around 70 par coat of tha total consumption, whereas la Buropa dla casting, although growing, atlU takaa only about 1$ par cent, while braes and galvanlalng ahara tha flrat two plaeaa and togatbar account for around 0 par eaat of total oonsimptloo. Tha changing relatlonahlp of load and tine to plaatlea and alutlalca our aala ccopatltora - la another factor of cooalderabla Importance. Tan years ago tha eonblaad free world cootvjcptloo of load and aloe wee equal to tha combined total tonnage for aluminium and plaatlea. Sow the picture haa changed to aueh an exteat that lead and line eoneunptloa together la only a third of the eoablned total for plaatlea and alunlnlm. Although the annual growth ratea for lead and tine night appear atlafactory to ua they are low compared to tha 10 per cent for alumlnlw and almoet 15 par cent for plaatlea* Despite the fact that alxartnlum ccmpetaa with steel and othar netala, and plaatlea with netala and other aaterlels, aome part of their growth muat have been achieved et the expenae of lead and line* While the dramatic rlaa la conauaptloo of plaatlea and alualnlum raflaeta the laprovanenta In their technologlea* of equal Importance la the change In the relatlonahlp between their prlcea and those of lead end tinn and other traditional netala. lead and tine are nlned products and tha coat of tha raw aaterlels la a aajor factor In thalr production coat; with increases la production both have beeoae relatively aore expensive la tern of real values than before the war. If coaparlaoa tbs aajor factor la the coat cf alumlnlua production la tha power required, and although Its pries haa risen . ii 15 iii .juimyysii.w j - - .... - l.Wt i illi IWIIU IIP X IB P W ^ ^ R LI A15888 '* J - *. L. snn In recant jrHJt It 1* cheaper today In terse of reel value than before the war. On the other hand plastic* are aanufactured product* drlv*d Minly froa cheep raw aeterlels and thalr prlca* bar* fallen with lncr*a*a* la pro* ductloo and laprovemnt* In technology. To sue up, a nuaber of factors bar* aff*ct*d tba overall trend* la ooaai^tlon la r*cant year*. As we bar* **aa tb** Include tb* dlffaraat rata* of expansion la various part* of tb* world; tb* *>**"< "t pattern* la end us* cooeunptlou; tb* technological developments especially la otbar aatrlala; and tb* n*w relationship between tb* prlca* of laad aad tine aad tb*lr sain coapetlton. It 1* Indeed fortuaat* that tb* factors favouring tb* growth of load and tine conswptloo have so far b*a sore than sufficient to balance thne* favouring substitution by otbar natarlal*. Chang** la th* Growth In Supply gaturally supply ha* xpandd to a**t tb* growth la coosuaptlon, and this expansion be* necessarily brought with It sow* Chang** la tb* pattern of production. Bovvvar, tb* aala change* bav* followed logically fren tb* A**al opaent of nv dcpoelt* to augaent old ones, and unlit* tb* chafes for u h is i^ tlon, ar* readily understood and accepted. Although level* of production la different parte of tb* world have charged, tb* overall pattera has not altered greatly during tb* last tea year*, for both aetal* alas production baa ex panded nearly everywhere, except la tb* united State* where there baa been little growth la tlac and idtere lead baa fallan by about JO per cant. la Australia lead ala* production baa rl*a fron 275 thousand to bOO thousand too* aad da* froa 250 thousand to J20 thousand tons la tea years. St* greatest rat* of growth ha* beea la Japan where production baa gone up 2-1/2 ties* since 1953 to JO thousand ton* for lead and for tine has doublad to 200 thousand tons. >p i in Jinei^*eae*Bswawp^a!^a*aBfwpnWi*dW^swanwpwe>Pdg*giSaffew|W^BP^Pag* if. \ - *!> ai i LIA15889 an Igf Pliw W 'ffIM fiaipi'mPW.W B aww^ wpiwtiw w W " 1. L. STOW - The expansion la aaalter production has alao been widespread. Twn yeara ago hownr, It would bare been difficult to faraaaa that ao aueh of tha Increase would ooaa froa aatltara dependant on laported concentrates, whose output baa rlaaa In proportion to tha growth la total aatal prediction. Krentually tha output froa tha new electrolytic sine plant In Canada, tha laad refinery In South Vest Africa and tha arvaral 1ST plaata, aoaa baaad on thalr own alnaa, will change tha established pattarn of natal eiqiply. hare Important in tha orerall supply altuatloo, bowerar, hare tha significant changes brought about by stockpiling; by tha rlas la froa tha Sorlat bloc; and by tha growth la protectloalea. Bitvaan 5 par cant and 10 par cant of tha fraa world productloa of laad and tine waa takaa Into tha us atockpllaa In aoat post war yaars until stockpiling waa finally tapsrad off and caaa to an and aarly In 1962 with tha bartar daals for laad with Canada and Australia. 1963 waa thus tha flrat ysar sines tha war whan all tha laad and sine produced in tha fraa world waa ami labia for nonal oonaiaptlon. Stockpiling did of eouraa stlaulata pro* ductlon and It wi unfortunata that, Just as It waa eoalng to an and, exports froa tha Sorlat bloc bagan to uiin significant proportions ao lncraaalng tha praaaura of oreraupply, Sorlat bloc tine exports hare rlaaa froa about 60 thousand teas la 1959 to a paak of nearly 120 thousand tons la 1962 but eaaa to bar* fallaa to below 90 thousand tons In 1963. Laad has bean exported only In tha last four yaars, recently at a rata of between 30 thousand and fco thousand tea* a year. Although froa year to year tha total of Sorlat bloc expccte has not rarled sharply there hare bean changes In thalr direction, the aala atgiplloe now going to the Continent Instead of to Britain, perhape with tha object of 'u .p I.| muI r^ p wniyiprsaw asiiw pw tspifw asw pasw ^^ i*w*ppp ir rial mumm m MBi*a&aaanaihiaBaiflhniiiiniEiiGi^^ nmmjigsmmmm LIA15890 -7- *. l . nun reducing their lapact oa the LoMoc aerkst pries. Another chan** affecting trade la natal and concentrates la the laat tao grfVi haa baaa the Increase la protaction In various countries. The aoat isportant daralopMat was, of oourse, tha Introduction of U8 quotas la addition to duties, and tha growing significance of tha Autlaa and raatrletlona oa la* porta Into Japan, laat jranr tha Cnrun Mirkat countrlaa, who ara gradually reducing barriers to Internal trada between Mahers, adjusted thalr extaroal tariffs and aoved ona stage furthar towards tha final Cnaunn Tariff of 0.6 . canta par pound, tha level to ha roachad by 1 January 19^7 at tha latest, tven Belgium, Garaaryy and tha Betberlaads, which imposed no import dutlaa bafora tha Coaon tfcrkst was foraad, now have a tariff of O.b eanta par pound on both land and tine towarda bo o aaabar countrlaa although sose aatal atlll antara undar duty fraa quotas. Tha duty on aatal, with nooa on concantrataa, aspaclally during racant parloda of tight auppllaa, has bean n factor la mia* tainlag aatal production froa l^arted concantrataa, a faatura of tha Cwoa Htrkat supply situation. Tha Coaaoo Harkat duties ara lowar than tboaa of tha United Stataa and Japan and ara not auch a hindrance to trade aa quotas, although tbay oust be expected to bring saaa changes In tha DC aupply patters. Tha Situation Today Up to now I have bean apeaking about changes that have already takas place. Bafora looking at tha future and tha furthar developments wa sight expect1 In lead and tine, X ahould Ilka briefly to review tha aaln features of tha present supply and rtaaand situation, as revealed by tha provisional statistics for 1963 lasuad by tha International Lead and Zinc Study Or<sp see attached table. tnnntM wttw w imyiJ I.IJJI IfJMU1W*'JJ1.1 JrpPBgpilB|pjl,IJfBH IUJIHI mmw* iiimtf imii l i iiiM ni* r I. U 8TUSBB - fl --.. For lead th* figure# ba* that there was practically d o growth la aln* production in 1963. However, artal production ro** by about 150,000 tons and natal comuaptlon by about 110,000 ton*. After taking Into account Im port* from tb* Scrirt bloc countrlaa, aupply and d*M>d vara In appraOmat* balanc* at do** on 2.5 million ton* aadu tb# Incraaaa In total consvmptlen at error 1-1/2 par e*nt mi apraad fairly wanly between th* United Stataa (19 by 39,000 ton* to 9<t0,000 ton*) and Europe (up by 31*000 toe* to 1,111,000 ton*), but tb* rat* of growth claewbcr* we* relatively modi graater (19 by 10.000 ton* to b3b,000 ton*). During tb* year producer* stocks continued to fall, especially la tb* USA (free 111,000 too* to ,000 too*) which we* laolat*d by quota* and where there we* no appreciable rlt* in aloe production. Tor awerel year* tb* fra* world demand far lead ba* in fact exceeded n*w upplla*, and thla (ltuatlcn continued throughout much of 1963 even though a itatiatlcal balanc* might have bean achieved for tb* year a* a whole. For sine there were notable lucre**** during 1963* Mia* production room by 70,000 ton* to 2,875,000 ton*, metal production by 96.OOO ton* to 2.717.000 ton*, and with Import* from tb* Soviet bloc (which bad fallen by error 30,000 tons to about 65,000 tons) the total of new supplies amounted to shout 2,630,000 too*. It was consumption, however, that showed tb* biggest gains for sloe, riming by 116,000 ton* to 2,850,000 tons, an lncrea** of about 5~l/2 per cent, and unlike lead, the lncreaae* were unevenly dl*trlbut*d. In Europe consueptloa at about 1,155*000 too* shoved hardly any Improvement over th* previous year, r but in th* USA It ro** by about 15,000 ton* to 975,000 ton* sad la otbar countries by * total of 90,000 ton* to about 720,000 ton*. In Japan consumption t ! Increased from 213,000 ton* to 285,000 tons. Just passing that of Oermaigr and 6 ; making Japan th* second largest sine cnnsvi--r In tb* world* mguwwsg ti l iwfflWnriiin mnw rtn.tMii A ^ \ m* irri*iigiiffatifftfrii^ -'{' l IA15892 ow s i"" m niiw igtw eiiw spiw ppasppw w w w ipppyf'v iw ffw tw ffn ^ ^ - 9- *. L. STUM lb* 1963 statistics show dsaanrt for tine orcssdlr^ aw tiqppllao hjr about 80,000 tons vlth producers stocks felling steadily throughout tha jrMTi notably In tha USA where they dropped froa 136,000 to 30,000 too*; la Buropa tbay fall froa 89;000 to 57,000 toes. The (raatar growth la tha oonsuaptloa of both laaA and alao la 19fij eoaparad with aarllar yaare, raflaetad tha Industrial expansion that hat tahan place Marly everywhere ratbar than any spectacular growth la My particular and uaa. Airing tha first thraa Boothe of this yaar this troad has noatlrmad. with tha growth In daaand aven accelarmtlz*, aspadally now that ladtwtrlal activity la again rising nora quickly In Suropa. Als growth Is, Z likaly to ba aalntalnad throughout Midi cf tha yaar, aapadally as both tha US and fe-ltlsh adnlnlstratlooa will ba anxious to aalntaln a high level of Industrial activity before tha forthcowing alactlona. Saw long It will taha to ralM suppllas suffldantly to catch up with ilaaand la a mttar of eonjectvrn. Muy lncraasas axa under way and tha overall supply position Bight also ho affsetsd by decisions on stockpile disposals and tranda la Soviet bloc exports* In tha naantlsw producers stocks of both lead and tine are still falling. Before considering possible changes la tha supply and darnd eltun* tlon a word about prices will not ba out of pisea. Changes in Prlcaa Since the beginning of 1963 tha prlcaa of both aetals have rhanged draaatlcally. lbs London Mstal Exchange cash lead price has risen froa ijfc to Its present laval of Just oyer L80 a ton, a rise of 50 par cant, and that t of sine froa L68 to raach Ulk, a few days ago, a rise of nsarly 70 par cant. Recently tha tine price has fluctuated by aa nueh as U0 over a period of few day*. .leui.nai'misun mu' aa 1 injui auw lumupaii rwut' infanasannjamas.rnvwwswmmw.,%- yj^smimvm y LIA15893 ij ii m > iwyij pwimiw f>fwwi'|.w j w '<w' i - ^p ^ 1. L. STUBS 10 - These new price levels, sad the change* la tbs last fifteen nonthe, oust surely carry with than a graat risk of daaege to future coasunptloo, and this baa no doubt baaa recognised by US producers who bare ro--ndshly held prices steady la recant eontbs. At the tine of writing (Triday 10 April) la spite of a 1/2 cent rise, tbs US tine price was below the equivalent us price for tbe first ties since tbs Kfrraan war. Has Influence of price on ccnetoptloa Is difficult to Manure. While tbe level relative to that of eo^etltlve Mterials la of peraeoist laportance, wide varlstlooa la price can be aa uasettllig to ooosu--r* as high prices. Turtberaore tbs Influence of price varlss free me to use and even free country to country. Although on tba stole prices reflect tbe balance between supply and demand, high prices are usually associated with a high leval of liana ml and ao thalr affect on future consumption tends to be overlooked. At tinea of high prices coMinue Intensify their seerch for sunsdtutee end, even t>wgs aeveral yearn nay elapee before a decision to change over can take full effect, once tbe change baa been Mda It My prove to be Irreversible deeplte any subsequent fall In natal prlcea. Tbe effect of fluctuations la even aore difficult to assess although them can be no doubt tbnt wide fluetmtloas discourage Inveataent la mw fabricating equipment, as veil as ceuslng special problsM to nanufacturare In ness production aarketa who ala to hold prices within close Units over long periods. It Is nore than a coincidence that tbe pattern of and uses has changed since tbe ver, ae tba price of lend and mine baa risen la coeparlaon with those of their naln ccegetltors. The greatest expansion baa bean la e IMllgHBMJUWWN mm -I SliffJ.1j'JijliMJ UBPi! . KUBUI^MWjffjP 1w ywn p i WMt f I I'II I H P W lfp8;WBil.WHH. IWW'^luy-iwwi . i n MMdWWMVi j, !*> a*. <-^p|P*':'-' ""f> ww"( JBJR LIA1589A ifflngittifi'iiiiin aanwhiaeaMiEHadihi hWUnfllri r . . -n- X. L. RUSH i0 galvaaltlig aad 41 casting* aad la battarlsa and tetraethyl, ami* la those uses la which the natal vmlua foraa the najor part of tha prlca of tha flalahad t- product, a. g. la ahaat aod plpa aad la pi geanta, thera baa haaa llttla or ao growth. Tbs racant rlaaa la tha prleaa of both load aad aloe will certainly haaa repercussions oo both supply aad dsasnil which aust ba kept la ^ad whaa considering tha futwa. rh^ngint Outlook for Supply During tha laat 12 aootha plans have baaa aaaovnead for ls^crtaot additions to alaa aad astal production of both load aad sine, wlnly la Canada, tha USA, Australia aad Japan, lbs aala projects arc wall know - tha new alaa production at mttagsal Laka la aerthara Quebec; la Paw BruMwichj t Pina hint la British Colunbla; in Missouri aad Tcaaassaa; the expansion at Wrust Isa aad at Broksn Kill la Australia; aad tha davalopasota la Ireland aad la Japan. These aad other projects are expected to Increase edna pro duction of both lead and aloe by at least hOO.OOO to $00,000 to<M a year each by about 1967. Purthemore, tha present high prlca lewels could pace tha way for an ewen greater expansion. Similarly a considerable growth In aaalter capacity can also ba anticipated, especially froa tha warloua new plants using tha ISP protest to produce tine aetal and land bullion. Although such of tha new natal production will ha alongside nines, nevertheless tine taalter production froa 1sported eoaeentrates should be well nalntnlned particularly now that closer links are being forged by sons analtea with overseas nines - between the Belgians and the hew Brunswick nines, for axanpls, aad between the Borweglaa refinery aad Sweden. *- V m h h ,pi^iw w ^fWfipaiP>piy^ f lBfPiMwjw t' ^ huwi iW p i minim i wiwm i >jimmmmtm r,*sr, -T>Vl-<Wil<^ ^^S^r"111" "' judu.li LI A 15695 mS^MUMUmiA 1. 1. STUBBS - It Baeva developments la production ere such as night haw bean expected and vUl not significantly altar the present pattern. gowavar, changes la Soviet bloc exports and la stockpiling policy oould affect the orarall supply situation. Balls d o official figures oc Sorlat bloc production aad eonsunptlon axe aval labia, thara ara Indications that tbalr oonsmptloc la growing. Bala baa probably been raapooalbla for tha recant dadlna la exports, which bora aot this yaar Increased for either laed or tine fron the lower 1963 larela daaplta the attraction of the present high prices aad tha apparent Iranmass of Sorlat countries to earn foreign currency. The position oould, of course, 0 altar whan tha new 1ST plants In Ki Mania aad Poland begin production. Bone of these developments, however, will have narked affects on tha currant supply situation which could parbaps only be radically changed by the release of aetal fron tha US stockpiles. Although such action would expedally ease tha situation In the USA, It would be walcoasd throughout tha world. There la surely no greeter assure of the remarkable change that has takan place in lsad aad cine in recant years than the fact that stockpile disposals ara now aerlously being talked about whereas only two or three years ago the ending of stockpilliy woe a cause of to nuch concern.. The US stockpile, nevertheless, constitutes a huge reserve of mrtal of greet la^ortaace to the lead aad sine Industry everywhere, aad It la to ha hoped that an opportunity will he provided for other countries to be con sulted before any 1mediate or lory bare pleas for disposals are adopted. Tha announcement of plana, no Better bow strlryent tha ooadltlooa In than, would go a long way to removing the uncertainty which surrounds the stock pile. At the eaae tine consideration night be given to trade barriers and ejanpsapi 1WJSPKMJKWIP WIMP'S ....* ~^ - i II " ' ' " w y s p i y Mf i iiJi BWPiiiw iiW wi u> jUJOgMy. rnmmwm L1A15896 13 - k . l . nuns o i < especially to reacting quantity reetrletlons, such m quotee, which sesa to be soesvfcat out of place la the present situation. At loaf last Japan seeas boat to sets It* reetrletlons oo trade la load and dne. l*K*"~|a Outlook for Dsaand IB looking at tha wsy* la which the Individual ussa or* likely to develop It to worth noting that the fortunes of both ostals are becoadng oora cloaaly ralatad to ttooaa of a faw aajor laduatrlaa, tine hawing beneae highly dependent oa tha autoaoblle and ataal laduatrlaa, aad load oo tho autooohlla and alsctrlcal laduatrlaa* Ttm ooat laportant changa for laad la likaly to ha la tha growth la i--nil for hattarlaa, wfaleh will laeraaaa with tha laeraaalag Btaber of eara now cos&i* Into uae, aach requiring several replacement hattarlaa during ita Ufa. Scat ldaa of tha seopa for expansion can ha aaaa froa figures for Japan, where tha autoooblla population la rialof rapidly, which ahoo that tha ratio of replacement to new hattarlaa haa aa yet only neched ooa to ooa, compared with tha UB aad Kuropaan ratio of three or four to ooa. The laeraaaa la deaand should nora than offset the reduced quantities of load used la tha present day battery aa a result of Improvements la toehaolnsT, aad It would not ba surprising If this outlst eventually absorbed half tha world's total Isad coosuoptloa. Tbs aeount of tetraethyl laad cooaoMd also depends oo tha nuaber of automobiles on tha roads and la Increasing propertlooately, sepeclally la Kuropa. lbs second aajor world outlst for laad la la eabla sheathing. Dssplte what baa happened In the UBA, where exceptionally high prices, at tha tine of Korea, together with new technology, brought about tha uae of substitutes, thsrs sssaa uallksly to ba any rapid change away froa laad la iurnsi. us.Oin^aBP^Fqpowiu,i i n i t X W W WW.' \ mm UA15897 -"~-^-wV.>-- -- .^--nr ritniiigii^^>-^'fc'>`>l'^'l'>"` '>*>' I W. ^aatLMha. R. L. STUBS - Ik - Burope and other countries even at present price levels. Although plasties hsve gained k m ground, lead 1* (till used for Many types of cable aod for example la regarded M the boat sheathing for paper Insulated power eablaa. Lead la atlll apadflad on both aldaa of tba Atlantic when tha very highest standards ara required, and vbere reliability la oora Important than Initial coat, taad has haaa cboaan for tha eroas Chaaaal povar cabla hatvaan tha UK and franca, tha nav transcontinental talophoaa cabla acroaa tha USA, and tha proposed nav povar cabla bstvaan Svadaa and Danmark to naaa only a fav out standing axaaplaa. leases to eoapetltlve materials have baan largely offeat by tha generd growth In cabla production. Several applications at load ara doaaly Unkad to tha construction Industries and although sans, such as load plpo and load pigmented paints, ara parhapa dlminiahlnf in relative importance, thara nay vail bo little ChlAff In thslr praaant larals of consiaptlon la vlav of tha continued growth In building, Tha usa of tine by tba autooobila Industry, In contrast to load. Is slaost entirely In nev vehicles aalnly la tba fan of die eastings but also. In the USA, la gdvanlsed strip. Zinc die castings, perhaps mo t s than any other load or tine usa, could be adversely affected by high and fluctuating prices. They already neat vigorous competition fron dundnlua sod plastics and, since they are essentially a Mass-produced product, stability as vail as tha levd of price la of great Importance to the Industry. This no doubt explains vhy during recant years die casters have baan nora vociferous in expressing vlava on price than any other aloe users, early everywhere tha aaln customer la tha automobile Industry - n keen buyer by any standards - but ody In Aaerlce and Britain baa tha autonobdla 9 i I i mmm if LIA 15 898 ii #* * 15 - I. L 8TUB8B o aanufecturer fully exploited the advantages of ueli 41 eastlr**. OB develop* aent* or* veil known but It say bs of h m Interest to aaotloa that British cart, oltbough saallar, contain oo mrifi over 60 lb*.of tine 41* easting* and In sons of tbs nor* expensive nodal* wall ever 100 lbs. Although growth in ths us* of sine 41s costings sight b* retarded by rising prioes, total cousuaptlon, perhaps sags up froa " castings ; than fcmsrly, ooul4 wall continue to grow, especially as there Is still s r scope for expansion in the Kuropeen autoeoblle industry which Is now sp- preaching that of ths USA In sis*. In Europe galvanised strip Is not yvt used In sutcaobU* construction * but there has nevertheless been s steady growth In production end 26 continuous Hoes are now In operation with several others In course ef construction. lew European dsvslopaents In prefabricated building night begin to aska up r for lack of progress la the autoaoblle Industry. Japan has dons well in 1 developing build!eg applications for galvanised sheet using a thin gauge i steel sheet with a light weight coating mad has found export aarkats few this special product. Perhaps of even greater significance has been the growls use of 4? :* hot galvanising, tine spraying and sine rich palnte for rust prevention on all kinds of exposed steel work. About 600 too* of sine were sprayed oa to ths forth Hoad Bridge In the UK end other large bridges In Europe are to be similarly protected. Zt Is becoalng standard European practice to galvanise structural steal work for railway alectrlfl cation schsaes, power pylons sod 5 radio and TV aasts. Another Interesting application is the adoption of galea* t* nlslng for a new type of railway coal wagon*. Everywhere growing aalntenaaoa ooats seen likely to bring an lacreaal^i daaand for the acre peraanent rust protection which sine provide*. saanwn .W iya- 'fai.iusin! u!.wy ___ __________ rnmmmmm fpyT-wjp'; mm. mmmmmm LIA15 8 99 mu j.iy f iiin j h h u mi im p nf ^ p iaim.niw wj u j as m m i sum. Jppm * L. 8TUB2B - l . Among the traditional uses lino sheet la wcrth apodal mention* Sine* tbs war the main uaa la Kurope baa baaa la tba renewal of old roofa, gutters and raiovotar pipaa, but now new building work la beginning to aaavaM greeter laportanca. A raeant development baa baaa tba growth in tba produetloa of line copper tltanlua alloy la abaat fora - nearly 20,000 tona la 19^3 la Kuropa. Vila new product la at piaaaat nalnly uaad la traditional building applleatlona but onca lta battar properties ara exploited It abould opaa up i^ortant naw uaoa. The other large uaa of aloe In Kirope la In braaa. Coosiaptioa haa not changed much In recant year*, and tba future for thia outlet depends ora on copper than on sine, with further expansion dependant to a certain extant on daralopeenta In tba copper narket- To sisi up, tba greatest expansion In tbs future la likely to be la coatings for sine and In batteries for lead, lba second largest uses, die eastings and cable sheathing, are mart likely to be affected by exception ally high prices which could also sake It difficult to nalntaln icae of tba traditional uses. Moreover, the pattern of development will vary In different parts of tbs world with Europe offerlt^ the beat prospects for Increased con sumption in the future, altbougb developing countries ere now beginning to take a bigger share of world cooaptlen* However, the changes In the development of consunptloo are ancoureglip end provide a sound basis for future growth but there Is still much work to be dooe to expand and luprove existing usee end to develop new uses. Changing Attltuda to Heaearch end Devslcimant Xt la fortunate therefore that perhaps the noet significant change of all In recent years haa been the growing attention glean to research and development work. mm* mmm mm iii,iiw iw .1 mimm"\.i9i I. '; : LIA15 90 0 I - 17 - . L. 8TUBBB 8ince tbs International Lead Line Feeearch Organisation wi launched over 5 years ago, research workers and technical people throughout tha world have begun to taka a new lntaraat In both artala. HJOto haa not only helped to coordinate and expand tha raaaarch effort on load and nine but haa alao played a part In bringing about a new attitude to tha futire. This la par ticularly l^ortant with old matals auch aa oura where eo such of tha praaant consuaptloa la atill baaed oo traditional outlets. It would be a pleasant outeoaa of tha raaaarch progreame if it ware to reanlt in a areatar diversifi cation in tha usee of lead and tine, particularly at a time when they are perhaps becoming dependant on a few najor outlets to aa extent that might prove dangerous in the more distant future. Development and promotional work haa also bean greatly ---iflimil in recant years and now aakea a auch greater l^ect on cocawar*. Iba first atepe have bean taken towards a closer co-ordination in tha work of tha associations in tha OSA, Britain and other European Countrlaa who now seat regularly to eschars Information and ldaaa. Development work haa alao been extendsd with tha aatahllshaent of new lead and tine associations la Australia and India, and la now aore truly on a world acala than aver before. Bowever there is still scope for aore proaotloc In Japan, Africa and South Aaerlea. rurther, our promotion and research efforts are (till oa a saall cede whan compared with those of our aaln competitors, and support for these activities would sees to be neither as large nor aa widespread aa la necessary. C0WCLQ8I0B t At present, however, this would teem to be a lass urgent problem than that posed by recant developments in prices. If vide fluctuations and ?!WWW m wiugf-wapp liny, Jwwm wwnxmmmm* '->** Vfiwwm Jiippapiii^^ L IA15901 f t i ; t. * k - fife m % mm ' LIA15902 19 Xi Xm 81VBB iXAS An me rm ttwld Balanoa ffhaat 1961-63 Waa production Natal production Sortat.bloc aat axporta fltociplla ebaofaa* ito 1961 1962 1769 2370 50 -15 1853 2320 32 -52 1963 (aat) 1850 2468 36 8 l IIC 1961 1962 1963 (aat) 2649 2570 90 14 2806 2652 U5 9 2872 2747 90 1 Total aupply Cocaunptlon Manca 2375 2291 84 2300 2376 -76 2912 2486 <26 2674 2586 *88 2776 2704 2838 2832 72 -14 1 OB atockplla intaka aad OX aad Svadlah atockplla rala < Sourcat Xataraattonal Load aad Zinc Study Orovp statlatlca