Document zaB8Dn6O0zGYBwq1Jp0NayBR

YCAOBMJl XI/I3HI4 14 3AOPOBbE .... . ,, - ' yflK 6I&36/361-057 : 673 tfpC.,' WT'S i?r.- ,fJy"e-: vb nOPA)KEHHH ITEHEHH H XEJIHHbIX IiyTEH Y PAEOHHX, / 3AHJITHX B nPOH3BOACTBE HEKOTOPbIX BHAOB \* IUIACTMACC1 r.. A. IlyuiUH Ka^eapa opraHH3auHH aapaBooxpaHCHHH CBepa.ioBcKoro MeAHSHHCKOrO HHCTHTyTa B CBH3H C 6bICTpUM p33BHTHeM IipOH3BOflCTBa nJiaCTHMeCKHX MaCC H3yqeHHe 3a6ojieBaeMOCTH pa6ounx stoh BaxcHeHinefi oipacnn rpyaa hb- jiaeTCH BecbMa, aKTyaAbHbiM. v.B flaHHOH pa6oTe npefldaBjieH aHajiH3 nopaaceHHa nenenH h eji<iHbix nyrefi y pafioqnx, 3aHHTbix b npoH3BOACTBe HexoTopbix bhaob naacTMacc (<J>eHO- h aMHHOiuiacTOB, noJiHXJiopBHHHjiOBoro naacTHKaTa, aueTHAuenAio- Ji03bi h BHHHJiCyTH^OBoro 3<pHpa), no MaTepnaJiaM CBepAAOBcxoro 3aBoaa ruiacTMacc 3a 1957-- 1960 rr. B pa3pa6oTtcy B3HTO 350 pa6oHH.x ochobhwx qexoB 3aBOfla h aah cpaBHeHHH 170 pa6oqnx BcnoMoraieabHbix uexoB, npo- pa6oTaBiuHx Ha 3aBOfle'ne MeHee 3 act. 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KpoMe Toro, Ha HeKOTopux yqacTKax np0H3B0ACTBa OTMenaiOTCH He- fiaaronpHHTHbie MeieopcworHqecKHe ycaoBHH (noBbimeHHaH TeMnepaTypa, BaaxHocTb h ap ). npH BbinoAHeHHH HexoTopbix BcnoMoraTejibHwx onepa- UHH npHMCHHCTCB pyHHOH TpyA- - ripeACTaBJunoT HHTepec HeKOTopue AHTepaTypHbie AaHHbie, yKa3HBa- iomHe Ha nopaxeHHe h (pyHKUHOHaabHbie H3MeHeHHH nenemi b cbswh c B03AeflcTBHeM Ha opraHH3M qeAOBeica pa3AHHHbix hcxoahux xhmhhcckhx BemecTB h cbmhx naacTMacc b npoH3BOACTBeHHbix ycaoBHax h sKcnepn- is- MeHTe. C. Jl. TpH6yx c coaBTopaMH bmhbhah y 15 H3 48 pa6oHHx, 3aHHTbix b npOH3BOACTBe nOAHXAOpBHHHAOBHX IUiaCTMaCC, H3M6H6HHA neMeHH B BHAe 6oaee hah MeHee BbipajKeHHbix renatHTOB, coqeraBiiriixcH y 2 o6caeAOBaH- 1 flonojKeuo na 3acenaiiHH TepaneBTimecKoii ceicmiii 26-fl rojn*mofi uayMiioi'i ceccHsi _^CBepflJiOBtKoro MCAimimcKoro HHCTHTyTa b MapTe 1963 r. 132 m BFG36559 HUX C HBJieHHHMH XOJieUHCTHTa. IlpH3HaKOB MCejITyXH npH 3T0M aBTOpbl He HaSaiOflaaH. 3AOPOBbE T. r. 3axapoB HccaeaoBaa cocroHHHe neqeHH y 57 nocTpa/UBiunx npn OCTpOM OTpaBJieHHH VKCyCHOH KHCaOTOH. ABTOp KJIHHHMeCKII HaXOAHJI yMe- peHHoe h KpaTKOBpeMeHHoe yBeaHqeHHe neqeHH (Ha 1--2 cm, pewe Ha 3--4 cm), coqeTaBuieeca y 32 oScaeflOBaHHUx c H3MeHeHHeM xoHCHcreHUHH h 6ojie3HeHHOCTbio. MHTepecHo, hto npH3HaxH (pyHKUHOHaahHoft HenojiHo- ueHHOCTH neqeHH aBtop Ha6ax)flaa h b OTflaaeHHOM nepnoae nocae hhto- KCHKauHH (qepe3 16 MecaueB h aaixe 5 aeT). E. A. ArpaHOBHq, A. C. ApxnnoB, H. C. CopHHeoH, C. M. KoBaaepo- Ba, H. B. JIa3apeB (uht. M. 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I\ PacoBcxaa o6Hapy5KHJiH HapyuieHHH nnr- MeHTHoro h yraeBOUHoro o6MeHa neqeHH y 3HaqHTeabHoro qncaa pa6onHx, Bepj.ioBCKoro 33HHTHX B npOH3BOflCTBe BHHHJlSyTHJIOBOrO 3(J)Hpa. yrjiySjieHHoe H3yqeHHe nopaxaeMOCTH neqeHH c BpeMeHHOH yipaiofl TpyaocnocobHOCTH cpean pa6oqax ochobhhx uexoB 3aBoaa njiacTMacc 3a Ba njiacTHMecKHX Macc 3 rofla (1957--1959) c yqeroM B03pacTHO-noaoBoro h npocJieccHOHaabHoro oTpacjiH Tpyaa hb- cocrraBa, a Taxace b cpaBHeHHH c xoHTpoabHHMH uexaMH no3BoaHao bhh- BHTb HeKOTOpue OCOfieHHOCTH. ieHBH neqeHH h JxeaqHHx ypoBeHb 3a6ojieBaeMOCTH paSoqHX ochobhhx uexoB BHine TaxoBoro b )TOpbIX bhmob njiacTMacc XOHTpOJIbHHX Iiexax: COOTBeTCTBeHHO 4,6 II 1,1 60JIbHbIX H 54 H 21,2 AHH iacTHKaTa, auemimeaaK)- HeTpyaocnocoSHOCTH Ha 100 pa6oTax>iuHX. m CBepaaoBcxoro 3aBoaa PaboqHe h pa6oTHHUH ochobhhx uexoB 3aBona no oo^ie3HHM neqeHH o 350 pa6oqnx ochobhhx h acenqHHX nyTefi aax)T HOBOJibHO 6ojibiuoii npoaeHT (4,3) flHefl HeTpyao- MoratejibHHx uexoB, npo- cnocoSHOCTH no OTHouieHHK) xo Bceii 3a6oneBaeMocTH c BpeMeHHOH yTpaTOii Tpyaocnoco6HOCTH. OaHaxo 3a6oaeBaeMOCTb xax no HHCJiy OojibHHX, Tax ?0H3B0flCTB OT^HMaiOTCH 4>eHo- h aMHHonjiacTOB cpeHoaa, ({jopMajibflerHfla, h no qHcay AHeii Heipyaocnoco6HOCTH y hcchiumh 3HaqHTeJibHO Buure, qeM ; * V MyiKHKH (COOTBeTCTBeHHO 5,6 H 1,5 6oabHHX h 66,7 h 16,9 HHH HeTpyaOoioco6hocth Ha 100 pafioTaioiUHx), hto coraacyeTCH c BbiBoaaMH mhothx :b, a TaKJKe nuabK) c|>eHO- aBTOpOB. HJiOBoro naacTHxaTa --' BbiHBJieHa 3aBHCHM0CTb ,3a6oaeBaeMOCTH 6oae3HHMii neqeHH h ceaq- : Taxjxe nuabio hcxoahhx hux nyTeft ot BHaa npoH3BoacTBa naacTMacc. HanOoaee BncoxHe noxa3a- i h CTeapaTa xaabiiHH); TeaH 3a6oaeBaeMOCTH o6Ha^yKeHH y paSoqHX, 3aHHTbix b npoH3BoacTBe xcycHOH KHCJiOTbi, yxcyc- noaHxaopBHHHaoBoro naacTHxaTa, HaH(5oaee HH3xne -- y paooTaioumx b iro 3t{)Hpa -- napaMH 6y- npoH3BoacTBe h aMHHonaacTOB (pnc. 1). CaMaa Bbicoxaa 3aooae- HaeHa. BaeMocTb OTMeqaeTca b ochobhoh npoH3BoacTBeHHofl rpynne, caMan HH3- BOflCTBa OTMenaioTCH He- xan -- b rpynne HHHteHepHo-TexHHqecxHX pa6oTHHxoB (pnc. 2). BbimeHHaa TeMnepaTypa, HaHSoaee 3HaqHTeabHaa qacTOTa 3a6oaeBaHHii iieqeim h HteaqHHx Bcno.MoraTejibHbix onepa- nvTeft HafiaioaaercH y baabuoBuiHKOB. pHbie jiaHHbie, yxa3HBa- J Ha 3aBHCHMOcn> 3a6oaeBaeMOCTH neqeHH h xceaqHHx nyTefl ot npo(jieccHH yxa3HBax)T M. H. Manaxix h H. T. JIaBpoBa, xoTopne npH H3yqe- eHHH neqeHH b cbhsh c hhh 3a6oaeBaeMOCTH cpea pa6oqHx iloporoMiiaoBcxoro xHMHqecxoro { HCXOflHHX XHMHHeCKHX 3aBoaa buhbhjih Hax6oaee bhcokhc ee noxa3aTeaH y cyinnabuiHu. ix ycaoBiiax h axcnepH- ;i OTMeqeHHHe ocoCchhocth noaTBepacaaioTca pe3vabTaTaMH nepHoanqecxiix MeflHUHHCXHx ocmotpob pa6oqHX, npoBoaiiBiiiiixcH Ha npoTaateHHH t 48 paQoMHX, 3aHnTbix b 3 aeT (1958--1960). Ha sthx ocMOTpax naToaorHqecxne H3MeHeHiiH neqeHH neqeHH b bhac xcn y 2 oScaeaoBaH- o6HapyweHU y 8,2% oficaeaoBaHHHx pafioqux ochobhhx uexoB, Toraa xax b xoHTpoabHOii rpynne 3tot noxa3aTeab cocraBHa Toabxo 2%. Cpean pafioqnx, 33Hhthx b npoH3BoacTBe noaHxaopBHHHaoBoro naa- >-h roaii'inofi uay'iiioH ceccim CTiixaTa, 3a6oaeBaHHH neqeHH h xceaqHUX nyreii npn Bpaqe6HOM o6caeaoBaHHH, npoBeaeHHOM 3a 3 roaa, BUHBaeHu y 15 H3 100 oocaeaoBaHHHX, cpeaw paSoqHX, 33HHTUX b npoH3BoacTBe aueTiiaueaaioao3H, -- y 12,7, 24942002 BFG36560 133 --1 BHHHflfiyTHJiOBoro 3<|>Hpa -- y 9,4. tjjeHO- h aMHHOiuiacTOB -- y 3,6 6oju>hhx. TaxHe BbicoKHe noKasaTCJiH b 1-fi rpynne mojkho, oneBHAHo, o6i>hc. HHTb TeM, mo npo^yKTH pacna.ua noaHX.nopBHRn.na (xnopHCTbiH boaopoa. XJiopHpoBaHHbiH yiviepoA h ap.), BUneJine&ibie b nepnoi ropnnero Basibaebbbhh npa OTKpHTOM cnoco6e nojiyqeHHfl BOJiHXAopBHHHJiOBoro njiacTHKaTa, OKa3biBajOT He6jiaronpHHTHoe s/iKHHHe a nevetib u xejiwbie nym. BwcoKan 3a6oneBaeMOCTb 6one3HHMii neneHH h kwimhux nyrefi cpean pa 6ohhx SToro npoH3BoacTBa CBsmHa, no-BHAHMOwy, ratone c seonaronpHflrHblM BJIHHHHeM flH6yTHA({)TajiaTa, KOTOpblH B HOCJieAHee BpeMfl MaCTO npHMeHaeTca b xanecTBe n.nacTH(|)HKaTopa hojihxaopbhhha3. OaHaKo ero TOKCH^ecKHe CBOHCTBa H3yneHbi HeflocTaTonao. 7,6 SiS te 5,0 f 31,0 68.0 31,0 \ *A 57,0 Vucjio Ho/ltiHblX 9UCA0 dneu 'mpydocaom \J *3* Vuc/w iuoHHX E3/ Vueao dmu Henptjdociwcelmcmu Phc 1. 3a6oJieBaeMocrb 6oae3HHMH neteHH r aceaiKbix nyTefi c BpeMeHHofi yTparou TpyflOCnOCOfiHOCTH B OTff&JIbHbIX BI1A3X JjpoH3Boa<rrBa naacTHacc (Ha 100 paSoraiowHX). Cpenmie aaHHue 3a 3 roaa. Phc 2. 3a6o;ieBaeMocn> 6o.ic33mii ne- Metra ii xeaiKbix nyrea c BpeweHHOM yr- pa-rofi TpyaocnocoCHocTH b orne.iwi'u.'. npoB3BoacTBBHHbix rpynnax (Ha 100 pa6oTaioiUHx). CpeaHHe xaHHue 3a 3 roaa. HaHfiojibOiHH npoueHT jihu c 3a6o.neBaHHHMH neneHH BbiaB^eH cpeAM OCHOBHOH npOH3BOflCTBeHHQH Ppyiinbl paGOTajOIUHX (8,1%), Ha BTOpOM Mecre ctoht HHJKeHepHO-TexHHnecKHe pa6orHHKH (7,9%) h aa rperbeM -- noAco6HO'BcnoMoraTejibHbie pafioHHe (5,2%). KjiHHireecKaH xapTHHa 3a6oneBaHHH cooTBeTCTBOBaAa xpoHHHecKOMv anHTeJinaJibHOMy renatHTy. IIonTH y Bcex 6oAbHbix orMeHa.iocb HeKoropoe yBeJiHxeHHe neneHH (Ha 1--2 cm) h ee 6oJie3HeHHOcTb npn na-rcbnauHH. y 9 H3 23 6oJibHUx renaTHTOM nowieAHHH coHeTanca c xpoHHxecKHM rnnauHAKbiM hah aHaiiHAHUM racTpHTOM. Y 15 aejioBeK BbiHBJieHbr $yHKHHOHajibHbie HapymeHHH ueHTpaAbHoft HepBHOft chctcmu, y 7--HapyuieHHsi (pyHKUHH IAHTOBHAHOH JKeAe3bJ H y 1 -- rHnOXpOMHaa BHBMHH. BHOXHMHnecKoe HccAeAOBaHHe ri03BOABJio oGsapyxuTb y Soabhux CABHrn b noK33aTeAax (jiymcuHOHajibHoro coctohhhh neaeHH'. yBeAHHBHHe coAepwaHHH 6HJiHpy6HHa, cmmeHHe ypoBHH caxapa, y Hexoropbix 6ojibHbix noAOJKHTeAbHbie pe3yAbTarbi peaKUHH Taxaia--Apa, npo6 K.BHKaHap- XapaKTepHo, ito KAHHHHecKaa xapTHHa renaTHTa fibiAa noBOJibuo crAaweHHo, 3a6oAeBaHH npoTexaAH 6e3 HBJieHHft HieATyxH. Toabko y 2 6oAbHbix OTMeMeHa HeKOTopaa HKTepHHHOcrb cKJiep h Mnrxoro He6a. y paaa' 6oJibHHx renaTHT npoTeKaa cxpuTO h 6ma AHaraocTHpoBaH ahuip np cneunaAbHOM kahhhmcckom o6cjieAOBaHHH. 134 BFG36561 I! 4 " ' f 'v m wacTOB -- y 3,6 6ojibacHo, OHeBHflHo, o6thc- (XJIOpHCTbtfi Boaopofl, paoa ropsnero BaameopBHHHaoBoro nJiacTHlenb h KejiaHwe nyTH. WHbix nyTeS cpe/w paratoKe c HeOaaronpHflT- ;|r. aneaHee. BpcMH qacro opBHHHJia. OaHaao ero Vucjo dtteu HempgiocmcoSmcmu ueBaeMOCTb 6oJie3HflMii neibix nyrefi c BpeMeHHofi yr- :ooco6hocth b oiAeabHux hhux rpynnax (Ha 100 paZpejHHe AaHHbie 3a 3 roaa. neqeHii BMHBAeH cpean (8,1%), Ha BTOpOM Mei) h Ha xpeTbeM -- noa- rBOBaaa xpoHHsecKOMy OTMeqaaocb HexoTopoe Tb npu naabnauHH. leTaaca c xpoHHaecKHM TOBeK BbIHBAeHbl 4>yHKreMbi, y 7--HapyrneHnn in aHeuHfl. :apy>KHTb y SoAbHbix a neqeHH: yBeJiHMeHHe >a, y HeKOTOpbix 6oabAna, npo6bi KBHKa h ap. 6ujia aoBoabHo b JKejITyXH. ToAbKO :KJiep h MsrKoro ne6a. aHarHOCTnpoBaH amub B o n b h a a G, 39 jieT. flHarB03: xpoHHHecKHH renaToxoJieuHcnrr; (pyKRUiionaJibHoe ipacCTpoflcTBo ueHTpa.ibHofi HepBHofi cHcreMu; THpeoT0KCHKO3. C 1945 no 1954 r. pa6oTaaa b nexe no npotOBOACTBy auenumejuiKuioabi b aojijkhocth HaqajibHHxa cmchu, c 1954 r.1-- xoKTpojibHUM ttacrepoM OTAeaa TexaHsecKoro kohtpojih b uexe no npoH3BoacTBy bhhhji<5ynuiOBoro sipHpa. B (UBBHicy Caepa.noBCKoro Baymo-HccneAOBaTexbCKoro BHCTBTyra rnnieHn Tpyna h npoipnaTononiR nocTynima c xaxoCaMH' Ha Cobh b cepaue, OAbnuxy npH xoab6e, npHcryubt ro-noBHHX 6ojieii (name bo BTopoii nonoBKHe paOoqefi cueHti), 6ojih b npaBOM nonpeOepbe, oOmyio cJiafiocTb, n.ioxofi anneTHT, noBbimeHHyio noTJiHBOcTb. 3a noc/ieaHufi toa noTepsna b sece 3 tea. CuirraeT ce6a 6onbHofi c 1958 r. BoAe3Hbio BontHHa He 6oaeJia. C 1950 r. crpaAaeT THpeoTOKCHK030M. H3UK qacTbifi, BJiawHhifi, xchbot MHrKiiH, npu naAbnaiiHH 6e3(5o.ie3HeHHbiH, rieseHb naAbnHpyeTCB y spaa pe6epHoii Ayra. nPH peHTreBOCKomtu rpyAHofi xjieTKii H3MeHeHHii b jierxHx He onpeAeaseTca; b cepAue yMepeHHO-craaateHHaa Taana, yqameHHaa na/ibcauHn cpepHeS aMn.iHTyAu. B kpobh noBbimeHHoe coAepxaHHe 6wtHpy6HHa (1,87--3,74 ata/0). Caxap KpoBu 73 BeaoK kpobh 8,19 a%. PeamiHa moiH Ha ypoOHAHH caa6o DOAoxHTeabHaa. TpOMGouhtob 160 000. peTHKyaomiTOB 0,7%; P03 10 mm b nac. OopMyaa kpobh 6e3 oco6eHHocTew. B nopoHHX A h B AyoAeHaabHoro coAepatHMoro oOHapyxeHo HeMHoro caii3h. MeroAOM paAHOHHAHKamm Buaaneno noBbiuieHHe (pyHKU.Hn iuhtobhahoh aceae3bi. y apyrHX 6ojibHwx xapraHa 3a6cwieBaHHH 6bifla npHMepHO TanoH ce. B npocjJHJiaKTHKe 3a6ojieBaHHH neqeHH b ycjioBHHx npoH3BoncTBa njiaTH9ecKHx Macc peuiaiomee 3HaqeHHe HMeeT KOMn^exc caHHTapHO-o3aopoBHTeJibHbix h Jieqe6HO-npo<})HJiaKTHqecKHX MeponpHJiTHS. H3 nepBofi rpynnu MeponpHHTHA HaH6oAbinee 3HaqeHHe hmciot cHinKeHHe 3arpn3HeHH0CTH B03Ayxa pa6oqHx noMemeHHH TOKCHqecKHMH BemecTBaMH, BHeflpeHHe KOMHAeKCHOH aBTOMaTH33UHH H MexaHH3aUHH, yjiyHUieHHe rep.MeTH3aUHH npoH3BOflcTBeHHux npoueccoB, ycoBepuieHCTBOBaHHe TexHo.iorHH npoH3BOActb3, 3aMena tokchhcckhx semecTB b hcxojhom cupbe MeHee TOKCHqecKHmh, H3 BTopoA -- AHcnaHcepsoe HaSAiOAeHHe, TpyfloycrpoHCTBo BHe B03aeficTBHH TOKcnqecKHX BemecTB, AHeTHqecxoe nHTaHHe, cnocoficTByiomee BOCCTaHOBJieHHio (JjyHKHHH neqeHH (AHeia Ks 5 no rieB3Hepy), caHaiopHOxypopTHOe AeqeHHe, a Taicxe TmaieJibHoe KJiHHHMecKOe o6cjieAOBaHHe (c 3HaJiH30M KpoBH Ha 6H7iHpy6HH) jihu, ABHTeAbHO pa6oTaiomHX B yCJIOBHHX B03ACHCTBHH TOKCHHeCKHX B6II16CTB, C UeJlblO BblflBABHHSl CKpblTblX renaTHTOB. MHorne aBTopu (JI. A. ropaxeBa h E. C. Ilap^eHOBa, h ap.) b KaneCTBe cpeacTB cneuH<t>HqecKOH TepanHH tokchhcckhx renaTHTOB pexoMeH.ayiOT npHMeneHHe BHTaMHHa B12, JiHnoxaHHa, MeTHOHHHa, xoJiHHx.nopHfla Ha 4>0He AHeTHMecKoro nuraHHa (flHeTa Ns 5 no neB3Hepy). BbiBOAbi 1. nopaxceHHH neqeHH y pa6oiHx, 3aHHTbix b npoH3BOACTBe ruiacTxiacc, o6HapyacHBaioTCH 3HaiHTeJibH0 name, qeM y pafioqnx KOHTpoJibHOH rpynnw. IOiHHH<iecKH ohh nporexaioT no THny xpoHHqecKoro anHieJinaAbnoro renaraTa. 2. Haa6oJiee BucoKHe noKa3arejiH 3a6oAeBaeMOCTH 6oa63hhmh neneHH h HceAHHbix nyTeii BbiHBAeHbi y pafiounx, 3aH3Tbix b npoH3BOACTBe noAHxaopBHHHAOBoro nAacTHKaTa, a cpeAH npotJieccHH -- y BaAbUOBiHHKOB. JIHTEPATyPA ropojaoua H. B., PacoBCKaa H. T. Te3HCbi 10-fl nayuHou ceccmi CBepanoBCK. iiayuHO-HccjieA- HH-ra rurHeiibi Tpyaa h npoipnaTOAOrHH. Cbcpaaobck, 1960, CTp. 58.--I" 0paieta JI. A^ llaptpeHOBa E. C. Tiir. TpyAa, 1961, Ns 7, crp. 37.-3 a x a p 0 b T. r. B kh.: MaTepnaJiu Haynnofi ceccn Mhhck. MeA. hh-ts, noconui. 40-acthio Bcahkoh OkTH6pbCKoA coaHaAHCTHHecKOH peBOjnouHH. Mkhck, 1957, q. 1, cTp. 122.--T p h 6 y x C. JI., TuxoMHpoBa H. n., JleBHna C. B. h Ap. fur. h can., 1949, Ns 10, cip. 38.-Man^110 k M. H,, JI a b p o b a H. T. Cob. 3ApaBOOxp.. 1956, 3, crp. 22.--14 tKjmooa M. n. B kh.; MarepHanu no TOKCHKOJionai semecTB, npuMeuneMux b npoHasoACTBe nnacTHqecKiix m.icc ii cHHTennecKitx Kayqyxos (MonoMepu it iuiacTH$HKaTopu). JI., 1957, ctp. 92. BFG36562 9S9DJ9 OO 2W 2: Q tOou a 5^4 g* .N1" SgXg o >C.OO. *c*'*> 2_r S.tk/) u <s . JJ ,rj . ^ fc-S o? . o O22^u.ose ."3 mi--' *--^|e-gO oU 2T-*r/iT^" sIO=S={l Jc .acc -_<a Ig-f <*_;.2 .co o a-jsrsdiSga? s<=2 ~=2S 2S - ofcO tZu --> -p| *o .* Z|U jos '-r C co to C3O C3/5 (3/) t5/> ,- v> w C-----*9 3 ij2 e Z E" e .- * " - .. . * tpt*: oQ ^ 5-- 2T|- --VwQ--O<S-OuO- JO5=*OSr**l o5 -3 2= 3 j---_ ;>S*t 4. ib: -t ^"2^ ifQ g >- . p5S-`^^ f- H (- i- cO VO Iro o c o *u co c 4> "O o u < o > X *3.2*1 o .2: V> aMi OI to . *au* Zt< uO n 2 2 ?>- 3 s-a-af- a * fi- . a . w < .2 2 u<~-u . 2 U e* "&8 8Bi=i .u=oHasi 2450s elSlE--S oo O o. o. ^ >t; -c C mH 70 2-0 > > m **'O 6^ ^ o. --M tooc3o !O Sii^Sg, Z ^>jZ ^ D nU T C #OA. cob#c_ e3C*a2HX* . S TiS .5 c c*o 2aZ.w ^52.2*2 5 gt!> .O o *1 _ u 8-55* a-* ?8-o fc* 5* o*-c e f w*n a g,*0 .H O rSjco n O " E"> P o S" 5C'n aSOei^^'Sts .2 ^ * Z to S*Of) .s-sia-c^ * al>i *& = | gta e or *0.2 -- a*H e Q_JZ. > 2 O M _ v. - 5.s c4 s3r=|ozu:a|S J! J5O we 3rt._. m.3c*O* i OOri 2 2 9 S5o0SJ. C3 J oto we $^^4 5 a r- 6 gv w < <OO^ri_* o-- sJH-iv'K-caSMa9 iOr. rs- *: w -- .. r.-j v ^ c-5~hi.|02 ISS :22sSm uS3s5S2^Vfau>-SS-EsSS-2</'5|^oJ.3f W ?: "> 2ii*52.L.s= foe "52o p-o o--3> <s J<- 5.uli 'o ~o a: ei a 0 to N INDUSTRY & BUSINESS PVC producers see good business ahead Optimism for polyvinyl chloride based on tight market, high plant utilization, increasing production, and firm prices "Everything's tight. You can't buy monomer. You can't buy polymer. I'm afraid to answer my phone be cause I can't fill any more customer orders. And most other producers don't even have product to swap at market prices.'' That's how one poly vinyl chloride produot manager sums up his view of the business. Although the tight supply-demand balance is bringing some operational problems, it does, nevertheless, indi cate that the 1969-70 business out look for PVC producers is shaping into the healthiest one of the past three years. Assuming continuing growth in the nation's economy, the PVC outlook runs like this: The supply-demand balance will remain extremely tight through 1969 and moderately tight through 1970. Utilization of plant capacity will average 90% or more this year and next. Production will be up at an an nual rate of 12%, to about 2.66 billion pounds in 1969 and 3.0 billion pounds in 1970. Price structures are generally firm and producers will b'kely announce price increases this fall for generalpurpose resin now selling at 10.5 cents a pound in bulk. Polyvinyl chloride markets are more diverse than any other large-volume thermoplastic Morkot Calendering Extruded products Wire and cable Calendered flooring Film and sheet Paper and textile coating Sound records Plastisols Protective coatings and adhesives Injection and blow molding Coated flooring Other domestic uses Exports Consump tion (por cent) 18% 14 12 10 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 11 5 It C&EN AUG. 4, 1969 PVC REACTOR. Firestone worker adjusts valve on 3500-gallon reactor in will'd vinyl chloride monomer is polymerized at company's Pottstown, Pa., plant Given such good business conditions after the 1967-68 period of over capacity and price cutting, producers are optimistic, but cautiously so, about the near-term outlook. Union Car bide's Gordon P. Bigelow, product manager of vinyls, expresses what seems to be the industry's mood: "There's a little life on the horizon . .. but there are indicators that the econ omy might slide." Even if consumer demand for vinyl products is weakened for a short time, the resin outlook is still good, be cause the current shortage of mono mer is tlie really critical factor in to day's tight supply-demand balance. This shortage is limiting the produc tion of polymer and will continue to limit it until mid-1970, according to all monomer producers. What will relieve this shortage about mid-1970 will be new monomer capacity, in particular Dow's 800 million pound-ayear Oyster Creek, Tex., plant, which the company began to bring on stream in June and will continue to BFG36565 increase to full capacity stepwise inti ji next year. :1 The monomer shortage is somewha :1; puzzling, though, in view of wha r appears to be an industry overcapac c itv. A C&EN check of all monome c producers shows that their averag t operating capacity for 1969 is 41 billion pounds (excluding the Dot r startup). At best, monomer produc 1 tion will approach 3.0 billion pound J this year, of which 90 %--2.7 billia pounds--will go to domestic PV( makers, and 10%--300 millia pounds--will go to currently stron| I export markets. Based on thes I figures, plant utilization for 19Ws would be only 75%. j Monomer producers, howeve claim that they're operating thd plants all out. They estimate plaa utilization this year at about 90% This means that the effective opera! ing capacity for 1969 must be lowera from 4.0 billion pounds to 3.4 billia pounds to arrive at the 90% figure This is quite a drop from nameplati 24343002 capacity, but conceivable neverthe less, as producers continue to phase out acetylene units and overstate ca pacity to discourage competition. ` The tight supply-demand balance for monomer is supporting the market selling price of 4.5 cents a pound in tanks on long-term contracts. One - downward pressure on this selling [J price is coming from the Federal Trade Commission's 1967 consent order Ivwhich requires that Continental Oil ILmake available for five years one third j^of its vinyl chloride production to nonfintegrated PVC producers at the lowtest price offered any other customers. {Another downward pressure is the {^forecast for lower-cost ethylene at less (|than 3.0 cents a pound, even though ; prices for chlorine, which constitutes (nearly 60% of the polymer weight, I?have recently moved up incrementally. Slight discrepancy. While pro ducers figure that plant utilization will the about 90% for 1969, there is a {slight discrepancy between nameplate [capacity and estimated production for {1969. A C&EN inquiry of all 23 ?PVC producers shows that the indusi try claims a year-end 1969 capacity tof 3.7 billion pounds and an average f operating capacity for die year of 3.2 ! billion pounds. These figures appear [overstated, as do die monomer figures, fit's likely that with production esti mated at 2.66 billion pounds this [year, average operating capacity will be about 3.0 billion pounds. During the first four months of 11969, polymer producdon increased r 13% over the same period last year, in which! with some changes in the polymerizaK lion mix. Suspension homopolymer I accounts for 68% of production so i far this year, up from 63% last year, wise intofL Suspension copolymer accounts for ; 187 so far this year, down from 23% omewhatlr last year. Dispersion (paste) resins of whalk remain unchanged at 14%. In spite /ercapaor of die generally good oudook, promonomei|! ducers still have problems which average* they're worried about. 9 is 4.0p Wide mix. B. F. Goodrich, which the Dow! makes about all types and grades of produoiPVC resins, indicates concern about a pounds! having to produce such a wide prod.7 billione uct mix. tic PVCp Hooker's Bill Daly, business raan- millionEager for chemicals and polymers, says ly strongE that his company is worried that its m these!three fastest growing' markets--rigid or 1969|hsperialties, packaging sheet, and cast ing--might slow down widi die overall however,*; economy. ng theirfe And about pricing, Dick Kulick, ate plan:vice president of marketing for Tenut 907.t neco's plastics division, comments that e operat-K even with last January's price increases s lowered* and with good growth this year, the .4 billiont.company feels there should be more Vo figure.! of an increase in the average selling ameplatef- price for its homopolymer resin mix. Vinyl chloride monomer capacity will total 4.8 billion pounds at the end of 1969 Producer Allied Chemical American Chemical Continental Oil Dow Chemical Diamond Shamrock Ethyl Corp. B. F. Goodrich Chemicals Monochem PPG Industries Tenneco Union Carbide Location Geismar, La. Watson, Calif. Lake Charles, La. Freeport, Tex. Oyster Creek, Tex. Plaquemine, La. Deer Park, Tex. Baton Rouge, La. Houston, Tex. Calvert City, Ky. Geismar, La. Lake Charles, La. Houston, Tex. Texas City, Tex. Capacity (millions of pounds) 300 175 600 180 800* 300 100 300 200 1000 300 300 255 150** Total 4,810 * Dow just started up part of its Oyster Creek plant in June and is making shipments. * Union Carbide will phase out its Texes City plant by early 1970 and purchase merchant monomer. Polyvinyl chloride capacity will total 3.7 billion pounds at the end of 1969 Producer Location Capacity (millions of pounds) Airco Allied Chemical Calvert City, Ky. Painesville, Ohio 120 200 American Chemical Long Beach, Calif. 70 Atlantic Tubing Cranston, R.l. 100* Borden Continental Oil Illiopolis, III. Leominster, Mass. Aberdeen, Miss. 250 (combined total) 155 Diamond Shamrock Deer Park, Tex. Delaware City, Del. 240 (combined total) Escambia Chemical Pensacola, Fla. 50 Ethyl Corp. Baton Rouge, La. 150 Firestone Tire & Rubber Perryville, Md. Pottstown, Pa. 115 125 General Tire & Rubber Ashtabula, Ohio 75 B. F. Goodrich Avon Lake, Ohio Henry, III. Long Beach, Calif. Louisville, Ky. Niagara Falls, N.Y. Pedricktown, N.J. 630h (combined total) Goodyear Tire & Rubber Niagara Falls, N.Y. Plaquemine, La. 80 40> Great American Plastics Fitchburg, Mass. 40 Hooker Keysor Chemical Burlington, N.J. Saugus, Calif. 70* 60 Monsanto Springfield, Mass. 150 Olin Pantasote Assonet, Mass. Passaic, N.J. Pt. Pleasant, W.Va. 125 120 (combined total) Stauffer Tenneco Delaware City, Del. Burlington, N.J. Remington, N.J. 80* 140 75 Union Carbide Texas City, Tex. South Charleston, W.Va. 320 (combined total) Uniroyal Painesville, Ohio 135 Total 3,715 Atlantic Tubing's capacity is out of operation as the result of a fire but the company plans to rebuild capacity--how much is stHI uncertain. A1_ . .____ b Goodrich will have the Pedricktown plant on stream by the end of 1969. Goodyear will expand the Plaquemine plant to 80 million pounds a year in late 1970. d Hooker will expand the Burlington plant to 120 million pounds a year in 1970. Stauffer will expand the Delaware City plant to 150 million pounds by the end of 1970. Note* Dow Chemical will shut down its Midland, Mich., plant, rated at 60 million pounds a year, by the end of 1969 and thus end its PVC operations. BFG36566 AUG. 4, 1969 C&EN 19 eoQ Zfrezz What kind of effect do you ^ FLUORAD8 Bra nd Su rfacta nts have been used in many applicationsovertheyears in electro-plating baths, as leveling agents in polishes, as foaming agents, as defoaming agents, etc. They can be effective additives in many ways. Why? Because they are fluorochemicals. Perhaps FLUORAD Surfactant additives in your system can: ... lower surface tension to less than 18 dynes/cm.-- something conventional surfactants cannot offer! ... create stable foams in chemicals that destroy other additives! ... remain stable and surface active without creating excessive foam! ... provide leveling action without moisture sensitivity! ... remain stable in high heat! ... remain stable to strong acids, bases, reducing and oxidizing agents! ...cut immersion time in alkaline cleaners or acid etchants! ...act as a wetting agent for plastics without stress cracking! Just what kind of effect do you want? Write to Dept KCD-8-69, 3M Company, Chemical Division, 3M Center, St Paul, Minn. 55101. Flunrad' Surfactants 3iB C&EN AUG. 4. 1969 BFG36567 Foreign licenses make more, satisfy less A rich type of decline may be way in US. companies' granting censes to foreign firms. A of 191 companies on the subject the National Industrial Confe Board accents pessimism on the futi of the license, much used by chemical companies (C&EN, May 1968, page 62). The outward signs seem enough. Far more U.S. companies i licensing abroad than did a de ago. Licensing income has swell from $4^0 million in 1961 to $78| million in 1967, the latest year which figures are available. Net __ come from licensing is often extn ordinarily high; 40% of the responds companies told NICB they clear ma ^ than 75% on their gross return \ Fully 75% of the companies repo ei8 satisfaction with returns from foreig licensing activity. And govemmei sources sing praises for the licena royalties' effect on the balance ( . payments. ' Shifting ground. The corporal ?|; ground is shifting under this surfao however. NICB cites a study b Booz, Allen & Hamilton, an intern tional consulting firm, showing th > the number of new licensing agre ' ments has declined nearly 60% sine ' 1961. These agreements made i Jjul only 19% of companies' foreign bus *j ness activities in 1967 (the rest beia *' ` investment and expansion), compare with 29% six years earlier. M Furthermore, NICB breaks daw Department of Commerce data a licensing income from 1961 to 19 which show that the biggest increasi from $157 million to $438 million, hi * come in licenses to companies' on 'Cl1 subsidiaries, affiliates, and branche m< The rise in income from independei ul* foreign firms has been smaller, froi >e, $263 million to $348 million. , ' Priorities change. Behind thes a,i bits of evidence, NICB finds a maj j? change in company priorities in doia !, business abroad. "About half the con * parties indicate that they are, as matter of policy and practice, movia j? away from licensing and toward job or wholly owned ventures overseas, . the survey points out. "Because i the progressive mingling and integn tion of licensing with other types i n' foreign operations . . . licensing i gradually losing its identity as a sept _ rate way of doing business overseas.* Flat dissatisfaction. A quarter the companies in the survey stated y flat dissatisfaction with returns of 1 ^ censing programs abroad. In additioi ^ many companies pleased with been! ^ ing had quibbles. For example, oa ;U chemical company declares: Our policy is that licensing is the last resort in most instances. We pre'er joint ventures in order to have a a partner rather than a competitor at r t the expiration of a licensing agree- rver mt" t h NICB says that the results seem to ena warrant the conclusion that there is ttun * 'strong preference for equity control U.S or equity participation, even among . 20 licensing companies that have no real complaints about their foreign licens- ros] ing experience." s aa More explanation for this turning away from an apparently lucrative gtyg operation is the relative size of the |7gl proceeds. Although licensing makes . ,, up over half of foreign income for t jjj about one company in five, more than xtf, half the other companies get less than idin| f their total foreign revenues mor from licensing. urns The corporate status assigned for3por sign licensing is also slight Only reig! 19% of companies put a full-time melj licensing coordinator or manager in ;ena l>ar?ff of this activity. Fewer than e 0 half the companies consider foreign .licensing a separate operating and inoral, come-generating activity, rface "Only a small minority of U.S. liy ^ censors," the report states, "apply to ema *^'e*r licensing activity the same prof,2 itabih'ty yardsticks that they apply to other operating activities." sincJ Chemical licenses. In this backe [turner position, chemical licenses have done relatively well. The Booz, Allen k Hamilton survey ranks them fourth Dare I" nun,ber behind machinery, electrial machinery, and transportation dowi p^uipment licenses from 1961 to 1967. a a At 150, chemical licenses make up 1967 f 1745 total licenses in the reasft consultant's survey. Other relevant categories include textiles with 74, 'owl scientific instruments with 57, paper iches, allied products with 45, rubber j and plastic products with 45, and fron Pe*ro^euin with 13. The character of licensing firms has ^jjgj, hanged considerably in the decade, majM iccording to Booz, Allen & Hamilton, doini contribution of large companies , ___ [those with more than $500 million ^ ( ales) has climbed from 13 to 25% >ovin| 0 the traditional dominance of l joint p* field by smaller companies. .seaJj> Prime target. The prime target for jjg 0 icenses has been Europe. In 1957, tegra ^ receipts from all types of direct oes oI ^vestment abroad (including manage ing i lnent fees and service charges) ran sep* i reiUion, with only $41 million ,2^ ban Europe. The European contri tion 10 years later had soared to itedW*7 million out of a total of $1.1 0f ijMaBkm. For royalties, license fees, and ditionfi'*n*ab in 1967, Europe was by far licemBr* majr factor with $244 million e omE-** a tta* f $438 million. TYZOR is doing such great tilings for resins, most chemists are close-mouthed about it. A We wish we knew exactly how Du Font Tyzor organic titanates are being used, but resin chemists aren't giving any information away. We do know that Tyzor can be very useful in the catalysis and crosslinking of resins. If you're working on a develop ment project, you ought to do it justice and see what happens when you me Tyzor as a catalyst. Yonr resin may develop improved physi cal or electrical properties. Or you may see corrosion problems and unwanted side reactions disappear. Curing time might become shorter. The reaction you get of course depends on how you use Tyzor and with what resin. We know it has done remarkable jobs with epoxies, polyesters, alkyds, silicones, olefins, phenol formaldehydes, polycarbo nates and polylactones. Before you wrap up that resin project of yours, investigate Tyzor organic titanates. This coupon will bring you an application bulletin. Do Pont Company Organic Chemicals Dept. Room 7742, CEN 96 Wilmington, Del. 19898 Please send me a technical bulletin which describes the plastic and resin applications of Tyzok organic titanates. Name---------------------------------------------------- Title-------------------------------------------------- _ Company------------------------------ :--------------Address------------------------------------------------ City------------------------------------------------------ State--------------------------------Zip---------------- PU) TYZOR* BFG36568 AUG. 4. 1969 C&EN iiZI 24943005 Phillips 66 Hydrocarbons are available in the following grades of purity: rNUFFMS Methane Ethane Propane Isobutane Normal Butane 2,2-Dimethylptopane Isopentane Normal Pentane 2.2-Dimethylbutane* 2,3-Dimelhylbutane* 2-Methylpentane* 3-Methylpenlane Normal Hexane* 2.4'Dimethylpentane Normal Heptane* 3-Methylhexene 2,2.4-Trimethylpentano* 2J,4-Trimelhylpentane Trimelhylpentanes Dimelhylhexanes Normal Octane 2,2,5-Trimethylhexane Normal Nonane Normal Decane Normal Undecane Normal Dodecane Normal Tridecane Normal Tetradecane Normal Pentadecant Research Pure 99% B a Ml Ba a aa aa aa aa aa aa a a aa a a a a a a aa a a a a aa a Tech. 95% a a a a aa a a N a a a a a, a a a a a C1TCL0PMUFFMS Cyclopentane* Methylcydopentane* aa aa Cyclohexane* 99.5 Q9* a aMethylcycloheune* acis-U-Dimethylcydohexjne a *trans-l,2Dimethyfcydohexane amixed-l,2Dimethylcydobeiaiies Ethylcycloheiane hopropylcydoheiant aa OLEFINS Etbytem Propylene tsobutytenn Butene-1 Irans-Butene-Z cis-Butene-2 Butene-2 2-MethyDmtene-t 3Methylbutene-l 2-Methytbutene-2 Pentene-1 ca-Penfene-2 trans-Pentene-2 -CMuMfualgiiMtitiex 99.B ** a a a aaa a a aaa a aa a' a a aa a H4mlofaMtal euntiliex Pentene-2 4-Methylpentene-I ci$-4-Methylpentene'2 trsiB-4-Methytpentene-2 4-Methylpentene-2 2-Methytpentene-l 2 Methytpentene 2 Hexene-1 cis-Hexene-2 Hexene-2 mixed Hexenes-2 and 3 Heptene-1 cis-Heptene-2 Heptene-2 Heptene-3 2.4,4-Tnmelhylpelrne 1 2.4,4-Trimethy<peatene-2 Octene-1 ciS'0ctene-2 Octene-2 mixed Normal Odenes Nonene-1 Decene-1 Undecene-1 Dodecene-l Tridecene-t crciooums Cydopentene Cydohexene 1-Methylcydobexene-l mixed Methytcydohexenes 4-Vmylcydobexene-l Cydooctadienel^ DIOLEFtNS Butadiene-1.3 2 MethyRmtadmne-U Pentadiene-tJ dtOMATKS Beruene Toluene Ethylberuene ortho-Xyten* para-Xylent meta-Xytene 1 ^.t-Trimethythenena tsopropythenzena n-Propylhemena Isobutylbewene sec-Butythcneat tert-Butyttenrena n-Butylbenzent l-Phenythetmt-2 sec-hmytheawaa mixed Amylbtattaes Research Pure 99% a aa aa aa a aa a Ha a a a aa aa a aa a aa aa Tech. 95% a a a a a a a aa a B B a a a a a a a a a a a a aa a aa aa aa 90 a' a a a a a a aaa aa a a a a aaaa a a a a a * Other grades available in commercial quantities. Analytical Standards, Hydrocarbon Mixtures, Instrument Grade Gases, Natural Gas, Special Solvents, Reference Fuels, Normal Propyl Mercaptan, Normal Butyl Mercaptan, Difunctional Mercaptans, Tertiary Aliphatic Mercaptans, Ditertiary Aliphatic Disulfides, Polymerization Grade Olefins and Diolefins, Aerosol Propel lants, Spectra Grade Solvents, Copper Sweetening Reagent. Sulfolane and other Cyclic Sulfones. Special Products Division Chemical Department PHILLIPS PETROLEUM COMPANY BFG36569 Bartlesville, Oklahoma 74003 Phone 918 336-6600 At Phillips 66 It's performance that counts 22 C&EN AUG. 4, 1969 Confidential employmen service gets larger test, ' *; Beyond their primary purpose of trai mitring the latest in chemical researc development, management, and nu keting techniques, ACS nation meetings are attended by those co J templating job changes. Next montl f 158th ACS National Meeting in Ne York City should prove no exceptk One somewhat new wrinkle, howevr J is AOS's Confidential Employme f Finders' Service. CEFS will be trii 2 out for the second time--but with a major change. What's changed is that the app V cant's identity will not be revealed u S less he decides to contact an interest) 1 employer. The system will now wo - this way: The applicant first fills o an application form in which he do j not identify himself and specifies tho employers whom he doesn't want see the form. Employers then i view the forms at the meeting ai indicate to the CEFS staff those a plicants they'd like to contact or inti -r view at the meeting. CEFS will n identify the applicant at this poinl as it did at the 157th ACS Nation ; Meeting in Minneapolis--but will co b tact the applicant and inform him :: the company's interest. 1L Vulnerability. "The way the servi ? worked in Minneapolis," says A( personnel officer Damon N. Corda ? "left the applicant somewhat vuhx i able." Companies surveyed after tl ; first trial in Minneapolis tend to agn ' Six specifically suggested changing t > original plan to the current form. Q company official observed that kx 1 tion and background information gi too much away in some cases, ai nen! st search L d mat lation; >e cod nonth n Ne: eption*. iwevet . oymen ; >e trie f rith on s appli iled un ' tereste ; w wor 'i fills on i he do< es thos vvant t \ Employer data Total number of participating companies Number of companies making inquiries 67 34 Total number of inquiries made 223 Range in number of appli cants requested by indi vidual companies 1-24 Companies Applicants requested 8i 22 13 34 75 46 37 4 10 1 19 1 20 1 24 ^en n | he asked that location data be deleted an I to avoid embarrassing the applicant, lose ap j Another company official said that 3r-n' B * to avoid browsing through applicant W1 ; identifications, employers should be Pln i obliged to contact all applicants identia lorn l gg^ or exp]ain any exception to CEFS. V1, . 001 f The confidential nature of CEFS lm ' ' might be similarly abused by employ. : ment agencies or management con- AC ' su^tant firrns- "Our fear is that should Xs , f such firms get a man's name, they or,011 t might market it in any way they see f>U "rt f fib" ACS's Cordom points out. But er | CEFS experienced no such trouble at . t Minneapolis meeting, he says, and | he hopes that the New York meeting fnV , : will be no different in this respect. iat loc i More contacts. The New York ion gn|f meeting wiU be different, however, in ses. that more chemists, chemical engi I! neers, and representatives from com panies and academic institutions will be attending than at the Minneapolis meeting. Thus New York City should provide a larger test of the service. Mr. Cordom projects two to three times the response seen in Minne apolis--50 applicants and 67 employ ers registered--although he observes that this projection may he overly op timistic because of the soft job market for chemists right now. New York City is also a larger and different metropolitan area than is Minneapolis. CEFS also differs from the Na tional Employment Clearing House conducted by ACS at national meet ings. NECH is primarily designed for those just out of college or graduate school, or without jobs, or employed but unconcerned whether their current employers find out they are looking for new -jobs. NECH makes no charge to employer or applicant for al is registering. CEFS, on the other hand. * BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES By DAVID M. KIEFER, Senior Editor The stake for business in looking beyond tomorrow What will our world be like in 1980? Or the year 2000? What corporations will still he in business? What products will they make? What problems must their managements cope with? Nobody really knows, of course. But interest in long-range forecasting and planning is spreading. This interest has been spawned during the past decade or so largely in several think tanks--private, independent consulting and research centers oriented toward broad studies of technological, economic, and social change. Now, however, it is increasingly spilling over into government and business. Just last month. President Nixon set up within the White House his own in-house think tank, as it were: the National Goals Research Staff. This new group has been "charged with the long perspective." Among its functions are forecasting future social developments and their consequences as far out as the year 2000 and evaluating the possible goals or choices that lie before us. A week later the President fooused on a specific but highly significant aspect of the future when tie proposed that Congress establish a Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, responsible for studying the course of demo graphic change between now and the year 2000 and how such change will affect government activities and public policy. Despite this apparent official stamp of approval, however, much of the business world remains skeptical of any such long reach into the future. And not without reason, certainly. Long-range forecasting still has a considerable aura of the imaginary, the unscientific, and the irrational about it. One man's guess might seem as good (or bad) as another's. Businessmen, to be sure, have become convinced of the worth of a carefully constructed plan looking forward two, three, or five years; this encompasses the time required to design and build a new plant or to carve out the market for a new product. Plans extending out to 10 years, too, are now increasingly common. Such plans, though, tend to be rather nebulous; the paths to such a distant goal remain obscure and ill-defined. Yet long-range forecasting and planning is being done--and will be done even more in the future. The techniques it employs admittedly are "stiff crude. Technological forecasting, although increasingly in vogue, is a discipline little more than a decade old and is as roughhewn today as economic forecasting was half a century ago. Political and sociological forecasting are at an even more primitive stage. Neverthe less, the foundations of a theory and a methodology for meaningful longrange forecasting are starting to emerge. And it would be short-sighted indeed for business organizations to ignore them or to relegate them solely to the nonprofit research organizations, the foundations, the universities, or the Federal Govern ment. Businessmen, like most of the rest of society, long were willing to treat science and technology as a bountiful cookie jar into which they could dip at will to use or reject whatever goodies they found there. Now, however, technological progress more and more is a directed effort Society asks for inventions and technological develop ments--the atomic bomb, a lunar landing, pollution control--on a madeto-order basis. Rather than accepting passively what God hath wrought it is drawing up specifications and decreeing what shall--or shall not-- Ire wrought Corporations have preferred to determine for themselves what products they should produce, and where, and how--with little thought for their relation to national goals or their technological or sociological impact on the national environment This may no longer be good enough in a changing climate. The company that continues to do so, therefore, may find itself, the day after tomorrow, technologically sophisticated, managerially astute--and prematurely obsolete. BFG36570 AUG. 4, 1969 C&EN 24943007