Document zQZRD5Zrb0oZ34ony9znbaMOm

East Pittsburgh - 7L from : Distribution Systems Engrg. WN : 236-2867 M* = March 1, 1976 Siijccl: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVES TO PCB's \l au. I; J 1o : Attached Mailing List Attached is the revised draft of the report on the economic impact of various alternative strategies for removal, replacement or alteration of PCB-filled transformers and capacitors* The report has been sent to the Commerce Department under the enclosed cover letter prepared by Mr. D* M. Sauter. This report vas written in response to a Commerce Department request for a short economic story to be used to combat the latest EPA move to eliminate polychlorinated biphenyls from electrical equipment. The report focuses on the effects of industry as a whole, qot Westinghouse specifically. Our purpose vas to generate reasonable end dfendable figures for the various alternatives which arediscussed. I would like to thank John LaDronka, Leon Plaster, and John Harder for their-efforts in preparing the economic Impact story. If there should be any comments or questions concerning the contents of the report, please do not hesitate to let me know. ^ ,t . Ax D. E. Euettner ' Attachment: \ __________ / PLAINTIFF'S EX H IB IT 1/ 906124 6BRN003496 SOUTH BOSTON' SOUTH BOSTON SOUTH BOSTON SOUTH BOSTON - Hr. J. C. Aldv?orth - Hr. D. P. Keiser Hr. G. C. Wilburn - Hr. R. L. Piaster BLOOMINGTON WKS BLOOMINGTON WKS BLOOMINGTON WKS BLOOMINGTON WXS Kr. D. H. Scuter Hr. F. A. Been Hr. J. Brittain Hr. J. . Harder EAST PITTSBURGH 8L51 EAST PITTSBURGH 7L77 EAST PITTSBURGH 7L29 EAST PITTSBURGH 7L33 - Mr. R. P. Lawrence Hr. 0. L. Nickel Hr. D. E. Buettner Mr. J. A. LaDronkc PGK-GAIEWAY 2254 PGl-GATEWAY i-2252 PGH-GATEUAY 2250 PGH-GATRNAY 924 Hr. M. J. McDonough Mr. J. A. Moore Mr. M. D. Gill Kr. R. E. Wills 906125 GBRN003W97 Westinghouse Electric Corporation Power Systems Company Dtstifeuticn Apparatus DnrtsJon ta 341 Btomrnurtndra47401 012)3324421 February 25 , 1975 Mr. John B. Cox O ffice o f Environmental A ffa ir s Main Commerce U .S . Department o f 'Commerce .. 14th & C o n stitu tio n Avenue - Rm.3425 Washington, D .C. 20230 Dear Mr. Cox: Attached to th is l e t t e r i s a rep ort prepared by Messrs. Buettner and Ladronka, Con su ltin g Engineers in Westinghouse E le c t r ic 's Transmission & D istrib u tio n Systems Engineering. This report was prepared in a sh ort period o f time to giv e some sub stance to .the economic impact th a t e l e c t r i c a l power equipment using PCB's might have upon the U .S . economy i f p re cip ito u s a ctio n were i n i t i a t e d by the EPA. During the meeting c a lle d by Mr. T r a in , head o f EPA, on Ja n u a r y '1 4 , 1976, you advised me th at you would be in te r e s te d in rece iv in g any in form ation th a t Westinghouse had c o lle c te d on the economic impact o f a PCB ban fo r e l e c t r i c a l equipment. These gentlemen were able to summarize variou s Westinghouse inform ation in to th is report which m ight g iv e the Commerce Department some a d d itio n a l informa tion to evaluate environmental concerns w ith s a fe ty and commercial concerns. The E le c tr o n ic In d u strie s A ss o c ia tio n and the Edison E l e c t r i c I n s t i t u t e have also been alerted to your in t e r e s t in economic impact data in t h is a r e a . The EIA repre sents manufacturers o f ca p a cito rs other than power c a p a c ito r s . These ca p a cito r manufacturers supply t h e ir equipment fo r use in home a p p lia n c e s, TV s e t s , lig h t in g systems and e le c tr o n ic equipment. There would be another s i g n i f i c a n t impact associated with changeover on these in d u s t r ie s . Westinghouse and the ca p a c ito r in d u stry w ill continue to cooperate w ith the Federal Government to fin d s u b s titu te d i e l e c t r i c f l u i d s th a t w ill be s a fe f o r man and his. environment. In the meantime, we are req uesting the EPA to document a l l data and inform ation they have on A ro clo r 1015 (the PCB used e x c lu s iv e ly in ca p a cito rs) so th a t proper decisions can be made in the fu t u r e . At p r e se n t, I f e e l t h a t A roclo r 1016 provides a balance between p ro te ctin g the environment and p r o te c tin g the p u b lic from undue risk s o f e l e c t r i c a l f i r e s . I f you have any questions concerning t h is rep ort or l e t t e r , fe e l fr e e to c a ll or w rite .me. Sincerely yours, 906126 D. M. Sauter D iv isio n General Manager DnS/jb GBRN003M98 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCB's) have found vide acceptance in the electrical industry in the manufacture of transformers and capacitors. Since 1972, their usage in other areas has been discontinued, so that presently these two types of electrical equipment represent the only ap plication for these chemicals. The reasons for.the elimination of TCB's are related to the tonicity and long-term persistence of various FCB isomers, If they are allowed to enter the environment. Up to now the rationale for their continued acceptance in transformers and capacitors has been that these devices represent closed systems, whereby the PCB's are effectively contained, except under unusual circumstances. Recently it has been proposed that PCS mixtures be eliminated in electrical equipment as well. This paper explores various alternative measures which may be taken in this regard and examines the approximate costs involved for their implementation. * In the case of transformers, the complete replacement of all FCBfilled transformers would cost billions of dollars. Draining of these existing transformers and refilling thee with a substitute fluid could be less costly, but would leave a small amount of residual FCB i the trans formers, tk3t would be unrecoverable. The most reasonable program would involve manufacturing all new transformers with an acceptable substitute coolant where FCB would normally be used. In the case of capacitors, the elimination or discontinued usage of these devices could impose staggering costs on the economy. The simple replacement of PCB-filled cr :'citors with those using a substitute fluid could be achieved at a cost -t billions of dollars. The most reasonable approach involves manufacturing all new units with an acceptable substitute fluid, and allowing the older FCB units to be retired by normal attrition over a time span of 25-30 years. 906127 6BRN003M99 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVES TO PCB's Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB's) are used in the electrical Industry for their dielectric and heat transfer properties. Substantial quantities of PCB's ere used in the production of capacitors and transformers. A commonly used name for those PCB's vhich are usable in the electrical industry is askeral. A study of the economic impact of various programs to reduce or eliminate the usage of polychlorinated biphenyls is presented in two sections: the impact on the ultimate purchaser of the transformer, and the impact on the ultimate user of capacitors. Transformers I. Introduction end Background The majority of the power transformers used in the United States use mineral oils as Insulating end cooling mediums. However, mineral oils have one serious drawback: they are flammable. Where transformer failures may result in fires and explosions causing threats to life and property, the use of mineral oils is greatly restricted. Fire underwriters generally will not accept the use of flammable liquids for Indoor transformers, and electrical codes will net permit flammable liquid filled transformers in congested areas or buildings. As a result, non-flammable FCB filled transformers are used whenever fire protection is important or laws demand. Host PCB filled trans formers nre installed in or on buildings or at close pfoximity to buildings. Whenever fire end explosion are concerns, PCB filled transformers meet the requirements without additional containment. Several possible substitutes exist for replacing PCB usage in trans formers. There are two technically feasible alternatives to PCB's: (1) mineral 906128 1 GBRN003500 oil filled and (2) dry. A third substitute, silicone based fluids, exists, but the operating experience has been limited. Each of these substitutes has its disadvantages. ' In itself, a mineral oil filled transformer is more economical than a FCB filled transformer. Oil is substantially less expensive than FCB's. Overall, the FCB filled transformer is 30X - 50X more expensive than the oil-filled unit. As a result, in many applications, mineral oil transformers are preferred. However, a mineral oil transformer cannot directly substitute for a FCB transformer, where PC3 transformers are presently being used. Flammability is the primary consideration. With mineral oil . transformers to meet the laws, electrical codes, and fire underwriters require-j cents, significant installation costs would be Incurred by the user to make the transformers safe. These costs may result from the use of fireproof vaults in buildings, or, where land availability*permits, outdoor substations with their attendant'reconductoring requirements. The effective cost of the trrnsformer that must be paid by the utility customer could approach twice the cost of t M FCB transformer. The dry type transformer offers comparable nonflammability of a FL'B transformer. Lacking a flammable oil, it could satisfy the legal require ments. They are somewhat larger and would, therefore, require more floor space. Also, dry type units are 5-10 db. noisier. To achieve a sound level equivalent to a FCB unit of the same rating, utilities and industry must pay a price premium for a typical unit. Furthermore, dry type transformers ado not have the overload capacity of liquid (FCB or oil) filled unit.' Liquid filled units would easily survive overload conditions that would cause the failure of a dry type unit. Special ventlalatlon facilities may be required to improve dry type transformer- loadabillty. The overall premium in price required to achieve an equivalent rating for the dry type transformer would be in the range of 10X-60X, depending on the value of the floor space, if such space is available. 906129 GBRN003501 -2 An abundance of operatl&s experience Information does not exist on the silicone based fluid substitute* It is less flammable than mineral oils, but more flemmable than PCB's. It is not es good a heat transfer agent as PCB. It has a larger thermal coefficient of expansion (approximately 401 greater) which could require a larger or modified transformer tank design. It is believed to be a more environmentally acceptable fluid because it has not been shown to be toxic, but it offers no improvement in- bio degradability over FCB. It is more expensive than PCB's* Overall a price premium of approximately 201 above the PCB unit vould be required for the silicone fluid design. If a. larger or modified transformer tank were required, the price premium would increase significantly. Bearing in mind that there are disadvantages to the substitute fluids, three alternative programs have been studied to determine their economic impact on transformer users. The first alternative assumes that no new PCB filled units will be manufactured: new transformers will use one of the substitute insulating and cooling mediums. The next program assumes that existing FCB units will be drained and filled with eiths mineral oil or silicone fluids and all new transformers will use one of the substitute mediums. The final alternate program assumes that all PCB filled units will be removed from service and be replaced with transformers using substitute insulating end cooling mediums. II. Alternative Strategies A. New Transformers Use Substitute Mediums In 1974. approximately 3,500 PCB filled transformers, representing 5,000 1-JVA, were shipped by all domestic manufacturers* These units ware applied in networks, power centers, substations, and as pad mounted equipment. It is estimated that 1ST of these units were purchased by industrial, com mercial, or medical establishments or by governmental agencies*. PCB filled transformers have also found acceptance in special applications such as 906130 GBRN003502 -3- rectifier stations, railway power supplies, industrial furnace facilities, and precipitator power supplies. These special application transformers have not been included in the economic impact analysis presented here. Nearly all of these transformers were installed in, on, or near buildings .so oil would not he a viable substitute for the PCB's. Kajor alterations to building designs would be required to house the oil units, and the cost would be prohibitive. If silicone fluids were used the price of the transformers would be Increased at least 201, adding approximately 9 MILLION dollars to the purchase prices paid in 1974. \ The dry type transformer alternative would add at least 5 MILLION % dollars to the price paid for the PCS transformers in 1974. Each of these substitute mediums would require some modifications to the building design. A conservative estimate of the cost of required minor structural changes could run as high as 9 MILLION dollars. Additional construction costs of 80 11I1LI0N dollars or more would be accrued if sub stantial structural codifications are required because of the use of the substitute mediums. B. Existing FOB Units Drained and Flushed with Substitute Medium, New Transformers Use Substitute Mediums A second, more costly eltematlve, is to leave the existing askarel containing units in place, but drain the PCB material out and flush the units with some alternate fluid, then re-fill with this new alternate fluid. This has the advantage cf avoiding the high cost of direct unit replacement, but it does present some trade-offs which would have to be made. 906131 4 GBRN003503 For Che purpose of this analysis we have estimated that there are ap proximately 42,000 aekarel filled transformers currently in use In the United States, exclusive of those special applications referred to In Section A above It should also be noted that this estimate may be conservative. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there are 67,000 of these units in current operation. Type Application ESTH&TED TOTAL IKDPSTEY PCB TPAHSFORHER MARKET Transformers in Service Units GVA Network Units Fewer Centers Substations Fad Mounts Total 4,500 30,500 4,100 2,500 41,600 5.3 39.2 11.9 3.o' 59.4 An--important consideration for this alternative is that not all the ?CB could be recovered from the transformer. It is estimated that a residual of about 3-10 percent would remain imbedded in the transformer insulation if normal flush-refill procedures were used. By using more sophisticated techniques such as vapor extraction and repeated trichiorobentene washings; a 2-3 percent residual level is obtained. Additionally, while units containing PCB's can be re-filled with mineral oil, about 10 percent of the units.in service may be tank space limited if silicone fluid is the replacement medium. That is, approximately 4200 units could not be flushed and refilled with silicon fluid but would have to be replaced out right. This presupposes that the flush-refill method would work with silicones. The cost of the flush-refill method can be broken into direct labor, fluid cost and PCB disposal cost. Additionally, freight charges for the FCB disposal would appear, but this is geography dependent and is not included in the analysis. 906132 -5 G B R N 00350M The cost per average unit for flushing-refilling with mineral oil is about $2700 per unit. This Includes the labor of two sen for two days, the use of 400 gallons of mineral oil, and the disposal of eight drums of contaminant Aie total cost for all 41,600 units would then be in the neighborhood of $112 HZLLI0N. ' The cost for using a silicone fluid on the 90T of those units where this might be possible, would be about $8000 per unit, based on a 20 to 1 price differential between oil and silicone. The flush-refill of 37,500 units would thus amount to about $300 MILLION. The additional complete replacement of the remaining 10 percent of the units would be about $194 MILLION. Thus, the total cost of this alternative, with silicone fluid, would approach $490 MILLION. The additional annual cost of using substitute fluids in new transformers as'given in the proceeding section*emounts to $9 MILLION. These costs arc relatively small compared to the overall $490 MILLION flushing-refilling cost. C. Replacement of Old PCB Units and New Transformer Use Substitute Mediums If replacement of all existing units containing askarel compounds is required, the three most likely present possibilities are oil designs, dry type units, or units containing silicone fluid. Again we will use our estimate that there are approximately 41,600 askerel-containing units presently in service, with a combined capacity level of 59.4 GVA. These units are of four types: network, power center, three-phase substation and . three-phase pad mounted. The largest group of these transformers is of the power center type. Taking into account the mix of units, the relative number of each, and the differences in cost per kVA of each, the replacement cost picture far the total number of units is roughly es follows: 906133 BBRN003505 6 Replacement Unit OIL DRY SILICONE Total Cost $ 1.13 BILLION ' $ 1.56 BILLION $ 1.94 BILLION These figures ere based on the assumption that the removal and installation cost vould be about twice the unit cost. The total cost figure includes the purchase price of the new units. Oil is. of course, the least expensive substitute, but may not be acceptable from e flammability standpoint. Dry type units are more expensive, and may pose other problems associated with their volume, ventilation require* ments and noise levels, as discussed previously. Silicone cooled units are the cost expensive alternative, and cay present enough of a .flammability hazard so as not to meet present fire prevention codes for the types of locations, where they would have to be installed. Not included here is the additional economic impact of using one of these three alternatives for all new units from now on. The annual cost associated with this was discussed under Section A and is relatively small when compared to the replacement costs. III. Transformer Summary The replacement of all existing PCB filled transformers would be an extremely expensive proposition, involving between 1.13 and 1.94 BILLIONS of dollars. Eliminating the ?CB's in existing transformers already in service would cost $490 MILLION, but there will still be 2*3 percent residual remain* ing within the transformer. If it is decided to ban the use of PCB fluids, the most practical approach would be to require substitute insulating and cooling mediums only in the new transformers being manufactured. Such a progr; would reflect a 5*9 MILLION dollar annual Increase in the price of transformer: using 1974 sales figures as a base. 906134 m ,, SBRN0035Q6 Capacitors 1. Introduction (A. discussion of the usefulness end elementary design of power capacitors for utility end industrial uses). In e general sense, e power system consists of power generators, a network of lines to carry the power, end loads, or the points where the power is ultimately used. Within the network* of lines ere various pieces of equip ment that allow the paver to be distributed in the most favorable manner, taking into account such things as costs, operating constraints, safety, reli ability, and other similar considerations. Because of the physical nature of the network or load equipment, two distinct kinds of power ere required. The first is what is known as "real" power, measured in units of watts. This is the power thst is associated with performance of work at the load site, and is the power for which most consumers actually pay. The second kind of power is referred to as "reactive" power, and generally appears as the energy required to establish and maintain electric or magnetic fields in equipment, such as transformers and motors, or in the lines themselves. Reactive power is measured in units of "vars". (The term "var" is a shortening of "Volt-Acpere-Reactive".) In the most simple case, both of these types of power are generated at the source, transmitted around the network and distributed to the loads. A drawback to this type of system operation is that both types of power, while flowing through the system, create losses. Also, the generators and other pieces of equipment on the system must be rated to handle the duty imposed by carrying both types of power. This is very inefficient, particularly since the reactive power, vhile it is necessary, often docs not contribute to the utility's revenues. Industrial customers are usually billed in a manner thac reflects both real and reactive power usage, but reactive power generally does not appear as a part of the residential consumer's electric bill. 906135 -8- BBRN003507 A favorable alternative,then, would be to '"generate" this reactive power at the points where It is needed, thus reducing system losses associated with the var flows, and to allow the generators and various other equipment to have lower ratings, while actually supplying the same amount of useful load power. Ideally, these localized "reactive power generators" would also be very inexpensive coopered to the large rotating turbine-generators that supply the real power to the loads. Fortunately, such an ideal reactive generator does exist. Zt is the capacitor. A capacitor is essentially a grouping'of parallel netallic sheets separated froa one another by a small thickness of insulating material. By storing energy between the plates at one time and returning it to the system at another time, the capacitor successfully supplies the reactive power require* meats of the system, thus freeing the generators, lines, etc'., from the burden of carrying this extra lead component, and also'reducing the system losses. The system thus becomes much more efficient. Since real and reactive power are "vectc-*" quantities which do not add linearly, the degree to which the system is improved can be illustrated through the use of a "power triangle". Such a triangle is shown as Figure 1. If a right triangle is constructed with real power es the horizontal leg, and re* active power as the vertical leg, the hypotenuse represents the total power generation requirement. The ratio of the real power divided by the hypotenuse is called the "power factor" of the system. Zf this ratio is near unity, the required generation is only slightly larger chan the real load requirements. * Zf, on the other hand, the vertical leg of the triangle is very large, represent ing high reactive power requirements, the hypotenuse increases in length, end there is a large gap between the generation requirements and real load delivered The power factor thus decreases, end Che system is less efficient, since more capability is required without being able to deliver any more useful load power. 906136 6BRN003508 -O- Figure 1. Power Triangle Reduced Capability Requirement From That of Fig. 1. Capacitors Uncompensated Vars Figure 2. Power Factor Correction With Capacitors 906137 10- 6BRN003509 By applying capacitors to a system, the vertical leg of the triangle can be shortened to whatever degree is shown to be economically favorable. This is shown in Figure 2; Generally, it is not economically desirable to increase the power faetor to unity under all system conditions. This is because of the fact that as capacitors are added, each successive block of capacitors is somewhat less effective then the proceeding block, and a point of diminishing returns is reached as one nears unity power factor. The amount of correction that seems to be in effect today vill be discussed later. Suffice it to say that capacitors do an extremely effective job of shortening the reactive leg of the pov;er triangle, and they do so in a very cost effective manner. If capacitors ere compared to other pieces of electrical equipment or plant cn a dollars-per-unlt-ef-pova:* basis, capacitors ere clearly seen to be cr.e of the best bargains available. For example, they are less expensive than generating plants by e factor of 200, end less expensive than combined transmission and distribution facilities by a factor of 50, on the above basis. Thus, an inexpensive unit of capacitors cen be very effective in "releasing" the capacity of the much more expensive system elements for supplying useful, revenue-producing load. The modern power capacitor in use by electric utilities end industrial customers consists of interconnected sections composed of alternating layers of conducting foil end insuletion. The foil is much like ordinary foodwrapping aluminum foil. The insulation system consists of layers of high grade plestic film and draft paper usually saturated with an.askarel mixture. Vestinghouse uses "Aroclor 1016" one of the askarcl mixtures manufactured by Monsanto. FCB's provide the best known combination of electrical properties, heat transfer properties and fire-resistant properties known to date. For this reason, virtually all power capacitors manufactured In the U.S. today con tain PCB'e. A more detailed discussion of the properties required of a capacitor dielectric fluid vill be Included under a later discussion of substitute . fluids. -11- 906138 6B R N 003510 II. The Present Situation At present, approximately 270 GVAR of shunt capacitors are in service on power systems in the United States* 'One GVAR, or gigevar, is equal to one billion vars, or one million kilovars (kVAR). The kVAR is the most coxson unit of measure of reactive power, as the kilowatt (hi?) is the most common unit of real power. The 270 GVAR on line represent an actual installation of about 300 GVAR over the past thirty years or so, with the assumption that about 10 percent of installed units have been retired. This will tend to give conserva tive and optimistic economic lspact figures, if there are actually core capaci tors in service then has been assumed. This figure can be readily contrasted with the approximately 400 GW (Gigawatts) of reel power presently being sup plied on a nationwide basis. Thus, every 4 units of real peuer being generated require about 3 units of reactive power, from capacitors, to keep the nation wide power system operating at a reasonably efficient level. At the present rate of load growth in this country, about 25 GVAR of new capacitors are added each year. The installed cost of these capacitors is generally on the order of 4.00 per kVAR, which means a total annual capacitor investment of about $100 'KILLICU. This is very inexpensive in comparison to the installed cost of generating plants and transmission and distribution facilities (lines and substations). The total cost per kW of combined generation, transmission and distribution is on the order of $1000. Capacitors thus represent a very economical source of reactive power. The present proposal to eliminate PCB's from the environment will have a direct bearing on the usage of all capacitors* Our comments apply only to power capacitor applications* The actual economic impact varies tremendously, depending on the particular alternative requirement that must be met. There are four identifiable alternatives to the present situation: 1* Total removal of capacitors 2. Existing capacitors left in place, so new capacitors added 906139 12- 3. Replacement of existing capacitors with those having a substitute fluid. 4. Existing units left in place with only new additions using a substitute fluid. These will be analyzed as reasonably as possible in the next section. The analysis treats only "shunt" capacitors, which account for the vast majority of applications. Some capacitors are installed in large "series" banks in the Western United States, to eliminate the need to install extra very long, very high voltage transmission facilities. These scries banks are only economically justifiable if the lines in question are on the order of 100 miles long. Hence, their application is highly restricted, end their Inclusion in the foregoing analyses would not change the economic impact figures by more than about 3-5 percent. III. Alternative Strategies e A. Elimination of All Present PCB Capacitors, and Ko Installation of Kew Capacitors As stated previously, about 270 GVAR of capacitors are installed on a "nationwide power system" that is generating reel power at a peak level of about 400 GW. In order to analyze the economic impact of removing these capacitors entirely, a few assumptions have to be made about what amount. of var compensation the '270 GVAR actually represent, and about what the system would behave like in the tctel absence of these capacitors. The analysis is based on the appearance of the system during the peak generation period, since this more accurately .reflects the amount of system capability (generation, transmission, distribution) actually needed, than does .the case of average loading conditions. We have assumed that the 270 GVAR compensates for enough reactive power to bring the overall national system to about .94 power factor during peak conditions. Using the power triangle approach referred to in the intro* diction, this means that about 145 GVAR of reactive power is still being delivered 906140 13 GBRN003512 by generation facilities. The hypotenuse of this triangle, vith a horizontal leg of 400 and a vertical leg of 145, Is about 425 GVA (Gigs Volt Amperes). This represents the actual system capability that must be available to supply the 400 GW of load power and 145 GVAR of reactive power. We can further assume that approximately. 10 percent of the real power being generated is sacrificed as system losses. Thus, the 400 GW leaving the generating plants represents about 360 GW of actual load and about 40 GW of losses. These losses appear principally as line and equipment heating. To analyze what would happen to the system power triangle if we removed the capacitors, we must start vith two basic assumptions: (1) we must supply 360 GW of actual load, and (2) system losses will increase by some factor. A good assumption is that this factor is the square' of the ratio of the "uncorrected" generation requirement divided by the present, "cor rected" requirement of 425 GVA. When this new triangle is formulated, we find that the capability requirements for the uneorrected system jump from 425 GVA to 655 GVA, the real power generation jumps from 400 GW to 455 GW, and the system power factor slips from .94 to .694. The enormous increase in capability requirements, 230 GVA, is economic ally staggering. This would translate to a requirement for $230 BILLION worth of new system physical plant iraedlately, if present loads ore to be maintained. It would, of course, be impossible to increase the total amount of system capability by 54 percent overnight, but this exercise does point out the absolute absurdity of this particular alternative. In addition to the large Increase in system capability Tcquired, there is also a large increase in system losses. The new real power figure of 455 GW represents 360 GW of load and 95 GW of losses, an increase of 137 percent over 906141 G B R N D 0 3 5 13 i the present loss level o 40 GW. This could translate to an additional an nual cost of about $2 BILLION because of the extra energy lost in the nov less efficient system. This vould be unfortunate, in light of the present increased emphasis on efficient energy usage. Finally, the reduced power factor points to greater future costs, since each unit of new real power added in subsequent years vould require 1.44 units of system capability, rather than 1.06 units with the peek power factor corrected to .94. Clearly, then, this first alternative is no alternative at all, since it vould place a catastrophic economic burden on industry, in trying to add new facilities. Since these facilities could not possibly be created in a short time, the load levels of today could not be maintained,, and tht resulting effect on the national economy, in terms of los production, lost jobs, etc., vould be incalculably large. B. Existing FCB Capacitors Left in Place, l?o New Units Added as Load Grows A short-haul estimate of the effect of not adding hew capacitors to supply the reactive requireasnts of load growth can be obtained by looking at the effect over a one yeer time span, using projected load growth figures. As a starting point, ve will assume the bcsic power-factor-corrected power system of Case A. This system delivered 400 GW of real power, and required 425 GVA of system capability. Frcjeetions indicate an expected increase in real power requirements from 400 GW to a new level of 435 GW in one year. If this new 35 GW of load were corrected to .94 power factor, the new systea capability requirement vould be 462 GVA, an increase of 37 GVA. Without this correction, the requirement vould be 471 GVA, an increase of 46 GVA. Thus, in only one year, an extra 9 GVA of systea capacity vould be needed above the requirements for a corrected system* Projection for ten years indicates that this 9-10 GVA of additional capacity vould be required in each year. This -15- 906142 6BRN00351H corresponds to an extra $9-10 BILLION Investment per year, about 24 percent more than vith capacitor correction. It la interesting to note that the amount of capacitors to properly correct the power factor of the new load would cost about $100 MILLION in each of these years. Thus, these new capacitors would yield a benefit-to-cost ratio of between 90 and 100. The economic penalty for not using any more capacitors in the future is thus obvious. C. Substitution of an Alternative, Non-FCB Fluid in Capacitors This alternative can be subdivided into two distinct cases for analysis end comparison. (1) Replace Existing Capacitors vith Substitute-Fluid-Filled Units, Manufacture All New Units vith Substitute Fluid. This "replacement" philosophy involves the removal of all existing units, the purchase of never units filled vith ft substitute fluid, end the installation of these units at the location of prior units. It is estimated that the present purchase price of capacitors is in the neighborhood of $2.00 per kVAR, and the installation cost is also about $2.00 per kVAR. Present estimates seem to indicate that a substitute fluid similar to the ones that have been tried to date would result in about a twenty percent increase in unit prices. Thus, a new unit cost of $2.40 per kVAR is assumed. The total cost for replacement of old units would be: (270(106) kVAR) x ($2.00/kVAR) - $540 MILLION (takedown cost) + (270(106) kVAR) x ($2.40/kVAR) - $$48 MILLION (new unit cost) + (270(10) kVAR) X ($2.00/kVAR) - $540 MILLION (re-installation cost) $1,728 BILLION If this program were spread over the next ten years, the amount of capacitors installed in each year would be 27 CVAR plus the capacitors required to compensate for new load. As noted before, this latter figure presently is 906143 16 6BRN003515 In Che vicinity of 25 GVAR. Thus this replacement could be effected in ten years by simply doubling capacitor output and installation* This is vithin areasonable bounds and could be accomplished vith minimum of hardship. If athe replacement program were to be done in five years tripling of production vould be necessary. This would probably entcil building new manufacturing aplants which might be financial burden after the five year period has expired Thus, shortening of the program would have a cost penalty associated with it, in the form of higher unit costs* In essence, though, the replacement philosophy at least enters the realm of feasability, compared to the previous two alternatives. (2) Existing PC5 Capacitors Left in Place, Mew Units Manu factured vith Substitute Fluid. This alternative is by far the cost reasonable of those analyzed on an economic basis. As stated before, the use o^a^substitute fluid vould add abqut 20 percent to the cost of capacitor units. It vould probably have a minor, if any, affect on installation costs. Thus, the total installed cost of capacitors using r new fluid vould probably only increase by 10 percent over present levels (20 percent unit cost Increase, vith no change in instal lation costs). The industry vould thus spend about $110 MILLION per year on capacitors, as opposed to the present $100 MILLION. With the present level of yearly Installations in the 25 GVAR range, It is very easy to see that in about ten years only one half of all capacitors in the field would contain PCB's. In the 15-20 years following this first ten years, most of the old cepseitors vith PCB's vould be expected to be retired ain normal fashion. It is evident, then, that philosophy of normal attrition spread over about thirty years vould result in only a very slight effect on the budgets of the electrle utility industry. Part of the problem associated vith these last two alternatives is the actual availability of an acceptable substitute fluid. A discussion of this particular problem is Included in the next section. 906144 6BRNQ03516 17 XV. Capacitor Dielectric Fluids There are several factors which are important in considering any fluid as a capacitor dielectric medium. Some of the more prominent of these are.as follows (not necessarily in their order of importance): * (1) Hinh Dielectric Constant: The dielectric constant is a measure of the relative capacity of the material for storing electrical charge. It is basically a comparison of a given thickness of the dielectric with the same measure of open dry-air space between the plates. The dielectric constant cf air is thus 1.0; that of mineral oil is 2.25; that of PCS is 5.85. Thus, askerels represent a very effective dielectric medium, in that for a given amount of insulation and separation distance between the capacitor plates, a much higher value of capacitance can be obtained. % (2) Hich Dielectric Strength: This is the clatsi'c measure of an insulator's ability to withstand short-time overvoltages without puncturing and failing. It must be considered in conjunction with (1), because a low dielectric strength means greater thicknesses of insulation are required, which reduces capacitance and may increase the physical size of a capacitor. Askarcls are also very good from this standpoint. Insuf ficient dielectric strength can very rapidly decrease product reliability. (3) Fire Resistance: This is of obvious importance for reasons of safety, where the equipment must be installed near people or flammable buildings. Since a great many capacitors are used in industrial plants, flammability considerations of a fluid can be extremely important if fire prevention codes ere to be met properly. This is perhaps one of the most significant properties of askarels. In many cases they are the only liquids which meet existing codes. None of the presently proposed substitutes is as good as ?CB from a fire resistance standpoint. If one of these substitutes 906145 18 GBRN003517 were to be used, additional costs associated with such things as fireproofing of buildings, and increased fire insurance premiums, may be incurred, ` (4) Heat Transfer Capability; This can be of great significance in electrical equipment, since internal heat generation can cause severe design problems in meeting temperature rise and hot-spot . criteria, if this heet cannot be adequately transferred from central parts of the unit to the oiitside. Askarels make excellent coolants, as witnessed by their usage in certain transformers. (5) Compatibility Kith Other Solid Insulation: The insulation system of a capacitor consists of plastic film and fluid-impregnated kraft pape*-. A problem in examining alternate fluids is finding out whether % eny long-term degradation of the insulation system will result frem such things as slow chemical- reactions between the elements of the system. (6) Kish Temperature Stability: It is important that the characteristics of the dielectric system remain relatively constant while at elevated temperatures for long periods of time. This is important in improving long term product reliability and reducing proneness of the device to fail cr be less effective at times when it is mast needed. This area has not been extensively explored with most of the proposed sub stitute fluids. . (7) High Voltage Stability: This is somewhat related to high dielectric strength, but is Qore specifically oriented to the ability of the material to maintain its properties under long-term conditions of very high normal voltage stress. This falls under the philosophy of "working materials herder" to realize cost reductions in product designs. It 906146 19- 6BRN00351B also is significant in determining bov veil the unit vill behave in situations where normal voltages oay be increased for*periods of time* This area, too, has not been veil explored with sub stitute fluids. (8) Environmental Csmoatlbilltvi Any fluid that, is used in capacitors should, ideally, be non-harmful to the environment, should it happen to escape from the sealed capacitor units due to tank puncture, leaks, etc. The fluid should be reasonably non-flammable, non-toxic to life forms, and bio-degradable, or at least inert. tihile ECB's ere presently the best answer to the flacsisbility problem, they have been attacked for their toxicity and persistence in the environment. All presently proposed substitutes involve a tradeoff, wherein better degradability, inertness or lowered toxicity are obtained at the cost of increased flammability. Until about thirty years ego, mineral oil was the standard dielectric fluid in capacitors. These older designs were much larger, heavier, and costly, as veil as being less safe then modern designs. The introduction of askerels heralded a nev era in capacitor designs, where continuous improve ment has been taking place up to the present day. The result is that present day units are very efficient, very sophisticated designs that utilize materials in nearly the best manner possible. Manufacturers have steadily reduced losses, and lov.'ercd the price per kVAR. This is why every new fluid that has been tried so far has been found wanting. A return to oil designs would represent a gigantic step backwards in capacitor unit design. In addition to the obvious drawbacks of flammability and unit size, there is no experience in the long term stability of oil at the voltage and temperature stress levels typical of modern day designs. Even though oil is commonly used In transformers and other types of equipment, it 906147 GBRN003519 -20. is not "worked" at anywhere near the levels.lt vould be called upon to endure in capacitors due to the st&all quantities of fluid Involved and the confined nature of the product where Internal elements are literally squeezed to make them as small as possib,,le. * V. Westlnghouse's Efforts for Improvement Westlnghouse, as Just one manufacturer has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars over the past several years in trying to find a fluid that is better than FCB's for capacitor applications. *Kone has been found to date. All of the recently proposed substitutes such as butylated conochlorodlphenyl oxide fluids, or paraffin-based fluids, are basically compromise alternatives that not only do not advance the state-of-the-art in unit design, but actually represent a regression. Westlnghouse is not unwilling to mske such a compromise; if it is uecessary, it will be done. However, ve do not favor a headlong rush into mess production of less effective designs, and ve will continue to look for something better* A favorable case can be cade regarding the present usage procedures associated with FCB materials. Within the past few years, Westinghouse has revised its handling procedures at the manufacturing plants using FCB's to ensure that an absolute minimum can escape into the environment. Sever drains in FCB areas have been plugged, and FCB-eontamincted material is packaged and hauled evay for high temperature incineration. The very types of FCB's have been changed over this time span, so that now Westinghouse uses a. FCB material that has only 1 percent of the pecta- and high-chloro Isomers, vhich ere the only ones shown to be extremely persistent in the environment and vhich actual ly accumulate in animal tissues. Outside the manufacturing facility, only minute amounts of FCB can enter the environment, since the capacitor is a sealed system (voided shut) snd can only discharge the fluid if the tank is punctured or the unit fails in a violent manner, causing case rupture. Most capacitor, failures do not result in more than a bulging of the ease, if the unit is properly protected by fuses. Thus, ve feel that the environmental threat posed 906148 GBRN003520 21 by the present usage of PCB's in capacitors is negligible, and that the worth of this material in the present generation capacitor unit design is great. V. Capaeitor Summary The cepaeitor has been shown to be an extremely vital component in the efficient operation of modern power systems. If a total ban on PCS'a is declared, there are four possible-alternative progrsos which can be ef* fected. These progress and their approximate costs are: A. No capacitors at all B . K o n e w capacitors, old in place C. N e w dielectric fluid (1) replacement (2) Attrition of old 230 BILLION + $ 10 BILLION per annuo $1.7 BILLION over replacement period $10 MILLION per annus (102 penalty) Attrition is the cost attractive alternative, with replacement next in order of preference. Both of these alternatives require usage of sub* stitute fluids which would likely represent steps backward in capacitor unit development, but which cay be necessary as a cosprcaise seesure. Westinghouse feels that the benefits'of PCB's in present capacitor manufacturing and usage modes far outweigh the rather negligible risks, and that they should continue to be used until a better, or at least equal, substitute can be found. 906149 -22 GBRN003521