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EFFECT OF THE FOURTH MILLILETER ON GASOLINE TEL CONCENTRATIONS Introduction Petroleum refiners currently are licensed to use up to 3.0 miilileters of tetra ethyllead per gallon in automotive gasolines * Under this condition premium and regular gasolines contain 2 >53 and 1.93 ml TEL per gallon, respectively. These are the national average TEL figures estimated for 1958. The "super-premium" gasolines average about 2.85 ml TEL per gallon, but they represent only 2 to 5 per cent of all gasoline sold. Presented in this report is an estimate of what will happen to average TEL con centrations during the next five years if refiners are licensed to use up to 4 ml TEL per gallon. Five geographical regions, as well as the average United States situation, are treated separately in the analysis. Summary Gasoline TEL concentrations have been predicted through 1963 for two conditions 3.0 ml TEL per gallon maximum and 4.0 ml TEL per gallon maximum. Estimates for the total United States are summarised in the following table: Total Gasoline (Pool) 3.0 max. 4.9 max. 58 2.12 2.21 Annual Average TEL, ml/ gallon 59 60 6.1 63 2,35 2,42 2.46 2,63 2.60 2.80 2.74 2,99 63 2.78 3.17 On a total gasoline, or pool basis, some variation in concentration occurs among the five geographical refining regions. However, these inter-regional differences are small. Introducing the 4th millileter of TEL will have the following effects on current and five year Elook ahead3 TEL levels: I. Current (1958) -1. U.S. total pool gasoline would increase 0.09 ml -- 4% .higher than current predictions for 1958. 2, The regional gasoline pool increases would range between 0.24 ml (10%) for the Western region and 0.03 ml (2%) for the Gulf Coast. n. Five Year 5Look Ahead8 (1963) -1. U.S. total pool gasoline would increase 0,39 ml 14% higher than that predicted for 1963 under 3 ml TEL restrictions. 2. The regional gasoline pool increases would range between 0,65 ml (22%) for the Eastern region-, and 0,18 ml (6%) for the Gulf Coast, -2These conclusions are summarised for the total U.S. gasoline pool and the indi vidual regional pools in Figures 1 and 2 respectively. "Super-premium" gasolines which constitute 2 to 5% of total gasoline currently average about 2.35 ml TEL per gallon. They will probably be blended to a con centration approaching 4.0 ml TEL per gallon if the fourth millileter is allowed. HIr 0008397 i i t iI HE 008933$ h < flGOO. ?. u!S>i 0 < . O - -> f \ .. v H 2 4 0 O J ? a. i' 4: ,o to k j c* Vau oQ j? va J f e *0 U w U ^ -J U*U. Vs. a v3 4 <2 v> 5 f'O v$ 0) co Ch X j?9\/gn njjj- /V/ . y V o,v/ K 0009399 Discussion - Basis The documentation o the approach employed in this evaluation am be logically divided into throe distinct stepsi 1. Per Cent of Gasoline at Maximum TEL - By our definition,, that percentage of gasoline that lias greater than 2.5 ml TSl, per gallon constitutes maximum TEL. The average TEL contest of Ms gaso line would be between 2.7 to 2. G ml TEL per gallon. Figure % depicts this relationship and is based on Gasoline Testing Laboratory data. We have assumed that if the 4tfo millileter were available to the industry,, it would be employed only by that segment that ia currently at the maximum TEL, limit. 2. Gasoline Pool Octane Improvgaaent Processing Costa -- Shown in Figure 4 are the estimated puol processing costs on a regional basis for 1953 and for 1963. A straight interpolation between these points gives the values for intermediate years. Basically, these costs warederived from computing cfcaue improvement costs for catalytic re forming heavy thermal aapfeiia (19SB costs'? and isomcriaatioa (1963 costs) for each of the vegicas. These processes were chosen because they can be considered almost independent o regional crude and hydrocarbon effects* Taey depend almost exclusively upon relative refinery costs (steam and fuel) and product costs (gasoline and butane). The 195-3 octane improvement costs considered variable operating costs only (excluies labor, depreciation, labor burden and maintenance). For 1963 the octane improvement costs wore a a total operating cost basic. Both the 1933 and 1963 costs were on a 0 % investment return bvsia. 3. Gasoline Pool Octane Improvement Costs For T.E.L Increase From 3 to 4 ml per gallon - Shown in Table 4 are She regional mean TEL, costs for octane improvement between 3 and 4 m3. TEL per gallon. These are given for Loth premium and regular gasolinea. They are based upon 1957 Eefinery Fall Survey Data. Distribution curves of TEL coevs verauo ptr cent of regional gasoline were plotted for both premium and regular gasolines. A regional sample cf 10 refineries was employed for ehch. distribution curve. .Tor the sake of brevity these distribution curves have not been included in this memorandum. Discussion - Description For a given region the pool processing costs' were allocated to costs for premium and regular gasoline. Employing the corresponding regional distribution curve for 3 <0 4 ml TEL (average cost), ii was determined viih&t par cent of refiners would Kfi' 0009400 employ the 4th ml over processing based upon relative economics only. With the value and that corresponding to the per cent of gasoline at maximum TEL. the amount of the 4th ml that is economically attractive urns determined for each regional premium and regular gasoline. These values were combined in the ratio of premium to regular sales for a given region to give the regional pool value. The regional peel values were combined in proportion to regional refinery production to give the corresponding total U.S. values. The regional and total U.S. premium, regular and pool TEL levels based on limits of 3 and 4 ml are shown in Tables I, 2, and 3. These include values for 1958 and 1963. The effect of the 4th ml as a per cent over currently projected TEL levels for both 1953 and 1963 is also given. These values, except for cor* rection of a `typo5 (Western Region Pool), and She figures for the Rocky Mountain region (excluded in teletype) are as given in our teletype of June 18 to Mr. Turner and Dr. Kirby. As mentioned, our 4th milliliter analysis is based on TEL response data obtained on Fall 1957 refinery samples by regions. Yet, we have attempted to adjust base TEL levels {by regions) to the U.S. pool concentrations now anticipated for average 1958. This leads to some questions about some of the regional effects we are indicating, particularly the Gulf Coast. However, an the time available we cannot take a more rigorous approach to the analysis by regions. kf 0009401 TABLE 1 PREMIUM ONLY - 1958 INCREASE IN USE OF TEL WITH 4TH ML East Midwest Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky Mt. TEL Concentration Present Estimate 2.61 2.65 2.38 2.66 2.20 0o0 e Delta ml For 4th ml .55 .15 .47 .10 % Increase Due to 4th ml 21 6 3 18 5 All U.S. 2.53 .23 9.1 PREMIUM ONLY - 1963 East Midwest Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky Mt. TEL Concentration Present Estimate For 1963 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 Delta ml For 4th ml .92 .92 .34 .92 .92 % Increase Over Present- Estimate For 1963 Due to 4th ml 32 32 12 \ 32 32 All U.S. 2.90 .70 24 0008402 TABUS 2 REGULAR ONLY - 1958 INCREASE IN USE OS' TEL WITH 4TH Ml. East Midwest Gull Coast West Coast Rock1/ Mt. TEL Concentration Present Estimate 2.12 1.92 1.84 1.84 1.74 Beifa ml For 4th ml .35 .04 ' .01 .1 .02 % Increase Due to 4th ml 2.1 f 0.5 9.3 1.1 All UoS. 1.93 .03 REGULAR. ONLY -1963 1.6 * East Midwest Gall Coast West Coast Rocky Mt. TEL Coaeesatratioa Present Estimate For 1963 2.90 2.31 2.63 2.63 2.50 X*c)ILt3& SHEll Po s t 4th ml .53 .28 .11 .21 .29 % Increase Orer Present Estimate For 1963 Due to 4th m2 18 20 4 12 All U.S. 2.72 o 24 9 K 0009403 TABLE 3 POOL - 1958 INCREASE m USE OF TEL WITH 4TH ML East Midwest Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky Mt. TEL Concentration Present Estimate 2.26 2.13 2.01 2.25 1.83 Delta ml For 4th ml .21 .07 .03 .24 .04 % Increase Due to 4th ml 9 3 2 10 2 All U.S. 2.22 .09 4 POOL - 1963 East Midwest Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky Mt. TEL Concentration Present Estimate For 1963 2.90 2.33 2.72 2.77 2.62 Delta ml For 4th ml .65 .46 .18 .56 .48 % Increase Over Present Estimate For 1963 Due to 4th ml 22 16 6 20 18 MU.S. 2.78 .39 14 tfE" 0009404 TABLE 4 AVERAGE COST DATA - 3.0 to 4,0ad TEW Gallon FALL SURVEY DATA - 1957 Premium Regular East Midwest Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky Mt. Total U.S. 12.5 12.7 14.0 12.0 13.6 13.0 3.3 8.0 7.6 6.3 6.7 7.6 0009405 ii i i I 0 v-> y\ F i g o t< t: 3 % GAS4L!fJ G^Lf'MK 'TiiKH lE TCU A___ _ TEL "ft-t-- At r T-O / Ic t -2- f<E 0009406 1 * .b Z fe "7"Ci.- - Ml 4a t. Jo iO K A To KE 0003407