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ky L Craaa, The Electric Storage Itttirjr Co., Philadelphia, Pa,
Before talk about 1963, perhaps va ihouK briefly mlai what happened in 1962, and reatnlaca by rrvtrilni the laat taa digits and rnnpara 1926 with today. Bara la m tha aallant atatlatlea night ba coaperedl
Prlnary atccka at baglnalng Production Inporta, roflaad Pb
- , antlnooial Pb Total Supply tana -- Export* Stock* at and
Panoatlc deliveries
1926 ll)73 tooa 31211 10017
3496 1)464? '
71933 2*693
21lTTI"ton* *13297 157133
7418 I44)4i '
39*3 134990
* Ineludaa about 33000 ton* of bartered laad to O.S. Stockpile.
0*a of laad In tha D.S.t Storaga lattarlaa Cabla Covering White Laad Tatra-athyl Laad
190.000 ton* (21.01) 185.000 - (20.5L)
120.000 (13.31) 7
466,900 ton* (loot)
400.000 too* (371)
55,000-
(3.11)
7,000
(.651)
170.000 (13.61)
1060,700 ton* (1001)
Price* would conparat
Average Raw York matin.
8.417;
Wholcial* coeaodlty price lode*
for other than food 4 tarn
product*
100.
9.631c (*14.41) 178.5
In 36 year*, the conplaalon of the lnduitry ha* changed comldcrably. W* carry 9 tit* the average atocka to produce half a* ouch lead doaestlcally. Va Inport 20 tinea aa auch and export only 1/12 what we did In 1926. Wa conaiaaa only 201 acre than wa did In 1926 at a price only 14.41 higher, when tha price of all coneodltle* other than food and fare product* Increased 78.31. The ahlft la claaalficatlon of aajor uaaa la quit* obvlou* fro* tha above coalerlaon.
In retrospect, tha laad lnduitry In 1962 had Ita good and bad feature*. Tha atorag* battery Industry had It* hlghaat laad uaag* In history with over 400 thousand ton* which waa 371 of tha total consuaptloet. Total consuaptlou (prallalnary - 1060 thousand tons) wa* 2.31 higher than the preceding 3>yaar average consumption, Tha aatal atocka of prlaery welter* and raflnara dropped 56332 ton*, but a large part of thla (40000 ton*) wa* Indirectly dua to the fact that our largest laad aiaing coapany lost 3 aonths of production In 1962 because of a atrika.
* Presented at the 33th Annual Masting, Laad Industrie* Association, Chicago, 111., April 29*30, 1963.
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Price was something else (in. It reached a low of 9.3c officially and subject to a hoat of discounts which produced an unatabla market. To equal that we must go back 16 years to 1946 when we were Juat recovering frow war and the average price waa 8.109c. But why ahould thla be? Rare are aowe intereating statistical
i
Salae
Consumption
Katie
K.T.
Tons x 1000
Tons 1000
*/C
Price
1962 1961 1960 1969 1968 1967 1966
1966
641.0
614.4 519.9 645.8 662.8 781.8
797.1 859.9
1080 1027
1021 1091 986.4 1168.1
1210.0
1212.6
59.351 59.821 50.921 59.191 67.19 68.69 65.88
70.91
9.63g 10.87c
11.95c 12.21C
12.11c 14.66c
16.01C 1S.14C
Any cowrit la conjectural. Inport quotas were lnpoaed la October 1968. The aalee ratio dropped alnoat 101. In wy oplnloo. the aecondary awe 1 ter* who normally have flrat call on the market aatuwed an lncreaaing role in feeding the oft lead market by decreasing their aatlaonlal lead production. The primary producers' stocks rose alarmingly and the price war began In the battle to liquidate inventories, but did that aell more lead! Obviously, no. Please observe that the same volume of sales in earlier yeara supported prices of 11c and lie. A continuation of such a condition can only wean liquidation of the swell producer or support by govammental subsidy, and decreased exploratory development by large producers because there are better profits or returns elsewhere.
Wy n
inist rat Ions - Total and hew
According to preceding formulas the author ahould now bring the statistics on registration, new vehicle registration and original equipment selea up to data. Associate these figures with vehicle storage batteries for replacement of vom-out batteries, those required for new vehicle production, and those expected to be exported. Then, as If by magic, he guessed the total number of units to be shipped, multiplied by the average pounds of lead per unit and, presto, there was the tonnage used by the Industry. If the guest was close, the author bragged about It; other wise everyone proceeded to forget about it. In I955f your present author guessed a 400,000 ton year which was expected to be a record -- something was wrong because total battery lead usage was 380,000 tons.
This year we are going to continue using those same facts and f1gures; guess at the batteries that will be built end the tons of lead required; but intro duce an additional study on tjrend^. The latter might furnish a clue to a better forecasting in the future.
You will recall the enigma that existed when we plotted registrations which were steadily rising, storage battery shipments which were rising at a such lower rete, but lead usage actually dropping off seat of the yeara. We blamed that on building better quality batteries that averaged longer life and tha advent of cowpact cars with smaller engines and lower cranking requirements, but this couldn't go on ad infinitum. Back in 1968 thla author exprsaaed the thought that technological progress would not continue at Its earlier rate and that the replace ment battery curve would again bend upward, better to ewteh the growth rate of
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vehicle registrations, Perhaps we have seen that turning point In 1961 nod thin In what has lent encouragement to tha Introduction of trend linos.
The ft rat appended page llata the related etatletlcel data referred to earlier In thia paper. Study It if you like, but pleaee let us aklp ewer 1963 for the tlae being,
how turn to the aecond appendage. On eaei-logartthwlc paper are plotted (A) total vehicle reglatratlona, (8) total automotive battery ahlpaenta, (c) replacement battery ehipmenta and (D) lead conaumptton by the battery Induatry, The apread between (B) end (C) reflect! largely the original equipment aalee plua relatively email exporta of 6V end 12V betterlec. Line* (A) and (C) have a clone relationship as do llnea (B) and (0). Semi-log paper permit! ua to plot curvea of widely varying valuea on the same sheet plus the added convenience of observing relative growth rates (the seme slope represents equal percentage changes of growth or decline). The graphs begin with the year 1933 and continue to date. The tread study begins In 1948 for reasons explained below.
It Is timely to Introduce some historical references. World War II began in 1939 but we became involved late In 1941. Promptly, we shut off production of vehicles for four years but continued replacement battery production under dose control. This la reflected In curvet (8) 4 (C). War activity ceased In 1943 and a few vehicles were built the latter part of 1943. The real ruth begen l" 1947 when the combined^demand for replacement and origins! equipment batteries cotild not be met by tbc*battery manufacturers.
Battery dealers and distributors were not going to be caught abort In supply two years In a row to they ordered heavily for the aecond half of 1948. Sales were "borrowed" from the future and when the pipeline was refilled. It resulted In a big drop In shipment* for 1949. Therefore 1947 is a poor choice to begin a study In trends. The oversupply In 1948 wss countcr-bslanced by stock carryover and shorter demand In 1949. This la the reason my trend study begins In 19a.
In n logarithmic seals, the length of each dlvleion shortens as you approach 10 or o multiple thereof. Consequently, the shape of curve (A) seems to bend downward. This Is on optical Illusion. To avoid It we shall deal with each curve separately by replotting It on a linear scale.
Trend of Total Vehicle BejUtraMoM
Look at the third attached sheet showing total registrations alone. ota that by visual Inspection It Is apparent that the average trend line la a straight line. Problem Is to find the elope of that trend line and write a formula for It,
Raving assuswd a straight line trend, the formula will he!
(1) T - a b X
The principle of least squares aids In determining the line that beat deseribas the trend of tha data, and It le a line vhote um of the squares of the deviations from actual valusa will ba a minimum. Only one line will qualify.
li|H II. jllg lllU 9 ^ a W W W R P I B |H W P 9 W IW ^ ^
Th* faraula nil be lumj up for all point*. Tbl* raaults la (2)3L (V) X** bi(I)
In which X* I* th* number of point* (yean In tbl* ca*) tlM* th* constant or Xa Ha, or rewriting (2)X(Y) la bt(l)
Th* coefficient of th* aecood unknown (b) la X. aquation (1) by X w obtain
XT a X b X* Tbl* auaa op to
(3) <XT> - a i(X) b X(X*)
Multiplying
U* nut now determine th* values of a and b In th* abova oquatloaa by substituting th* various known value* obtained fro* existing data.
1968 1969 1930 1931 1952 1953 1934 1933 1936 1957 1938 1959 1960 1961 1962
9*13
Tear* Froa
Start
(X)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 16
vahicl*
(million*) (Y)
40.556 44.160 48.872 51.386 33.110 36.260 58.765 62.760 65.270 67.470 66.740 71.668 73.967 76.330 79.200
(XY>
0. 64.160 97.744 136.758 212.640 281.600 352.590 439.460 322.160 607.230 687.400 788.368 887.364 992.550 1108.800
(X*)
0 1 4 9 16 25 36 49 64 81 100 121 164 169 196
l(X) 103
X<Y> 918.736
.ixr) - Xfx*) 7176.384 1013
(2)
- 916.7J4 - 15a
103b
(3) - 7176.384 103* 1015b
(2) X 7 - (4) - 6431.138 - 105a
733b
(3) - (4)
- 745.246
280b
b - 2.661393
trend
Curve
(T)
42.618 45.279 47.961 30.603 33.264 33.926 38.587 61.249 63.911 66.372 69.236 71.893 74.357 77.219 79.880 ^2.342 85.203 87.863 90.327 93.188 95.830 96.311 101.173
1968 1969 1930
1951 1952 1953 1936 1953 1936 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967
1968 1969 1970
(2) - 918.734 - 13a 279.4673 13a 639.2667 a - 42.6171
Formal* for trend curve beginning In 1966 la
T - 42.6176 v 2.6616 X
where unit* are In oilllona. The trend value* for varlou* value* of X (year*) are computed In th* righthand Coluort. A*aum!ng th* continuation of th* * am* trend, w* can compute th* value* for succeeding year* which ha* b**n don* In th* right-hand column.
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Trend of Replacement Battery Ship--nt
Flaps* rafar to tha last attached sheet. Bar* we have --plotted
replace--nt battery ship--nta to a linear scale and obaerr* that by visual
inspection the trend is not a stralsht line bet actually bands upward. This
is good. It --ans that tha rat* of increase Is approaching tha registration
trend, in fact, in tha last two years It ha* increased at a higher rat*, gut
tha foraula for such a bending line is the reciprocal of a straight line and
would be written!
11
(1) i t, m or "T" "
Bow we can treat this foraula the aa-- as we did before,
(2) (T*) - Ra b .() O) (XT') - a U) b 2LCX*)
and a tabla like this on* below develop* the known value*.
1948 1949 1930 1931 1932 1953 1934 1933 1956 1937 1938 1939 1960 1961 1962
13
Years from start
(JO
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
u_
00 103 1
Replace--nt Batteries (millions) (Y)
25.075 19.383 24.442 22.219 22.453 23.614 23.771 25.826 25.014 25.943 25.270 27.493 26.329 26.311 30.486
SL(Y) -
375.633
1 I
|
Reciprocal of Y
(Y'>
.03988 .05139
.04091
.04301
.04454
.04235 .04207
.03872 .03998
.03833 .03957
.03637
.03798
.03532 .03280
1
*.(y *) .60564 1
Trend Curve
(XT*)
(X*>
00
.05159
1
.06182
4
.13503
9
.17816
16
.21175
23
.23242
36
.27104
49
.31984
64
.34695
81
.39370 100
.40007
121
.45576
144
.45916
169
.45920 _ 196
l
*(XY*W (X*>-
4.01849 1015
Y
21.783 22.165 22.560 22.970 23.395 23.833 24.293 24.770 25.260 25.775 26.310 26.870 27.450 28.060 28.695 29.360 30.035 30.785
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1934 1933 1956 1957 1938 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1963
(2) - .60364 (2) X 7 - (4) - 4.23948
(3) - 4.01849
(4) - (3) - .22099 b
(2) .80364
13a a
> 13a 103b 103a 733b 103a 4 1013b -- 280b -- .000789
13a -- .06287 > .68831 > .0439
Trend curve la T
'-"wuJOT
for replacement battery ship--nt* In which the values era expressed in Billions. The right-hand column shows th* computation of Y for various values of S.
mm.
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The Trend of Lead Consumption by Storage Batterj Industry
Let u* not burden tht itctlon with worn table* and fowl**, except to say that by (lnllar derivation, the trend line beginning In 1946 nay be expressed aat
T * 3)2.962) 1.2333 X
in which the unit* are thouiaada of tona of lead. Thla It not a very encouraging rat* of lncraaa* and night be expressed a* only 1233.3 toot a year.
Tutal lead uaed by the battery Induatry la divided between that portion uaed for autonotlva type* end that portion uaed for Induetrial type*. Let na hope that there will be no nor* "skinning" of lead content In autonotlv* betterlat and that we can later prove our trend curve for lead consumption In auccending year* actually band* upward like that for replacement batteriaa.
* 196) Torecaat
How let u* return to the flrat attached aheet ahow log ttatlatlca. Original equipment aale* valuta are the reflection of several public utterance* by tha "expert*" in the automotive field discounted to some extent by the expected public optinian of a aalea manager.
taplaceaint battery shipments represent the largest usage of lead. Look again at the trend curve. Xemember that last year's cold weather extended until March of 1963. Many of the "weakllnga" were knocked out by the cold weather sooner than they might have failed normally. As of thl* writing, replacement sales are pretty tour but given a normal weather return, I would expect this yaar's replace* went volume to return to the trend line or slightly below. Thet la why 1 chose the figure 29,000,000 unite for 196),
A word of caution against too close en assoc 1st 1on of replacement battery sale* with total vehicle registrations. Two years ago I made a study of storaga battery volume at uaed to crank marine outboard motors. Hera is a market which has grown rapidly since 1933 and at of Jan. 1960, it was estimated that there were over 600,000 automotive batteries uaed In marine service. Fractlcally all of these ware bought through eutomotlve battery dealer*. Du* to winter atoragt and probable lack of care, th* average life I* estimated to be only about 18 aonths. So don't aake the ntatake of matching replacement volume directly with car registrations without making dua allowance for perhaps 300,000 units going Into marina same*. Th* tana is true for any computation* on average life.
Some minor adjustaents were mad* to tha estimate* of load used to maimifacture industrial batteries in earlier year*. To repast a remark mad* a number af times in th* past ~ "you will not be far amiss If you estimate 101 to 121 of total battery industry conauaption as going to tha production of Industrial batteriaa."
In yaars prior to 1963, we uaa th* industry consult 1 on figure given ua by th* Bureau of Hlnaa, subtract tha estimate of tonnag* for Industrial batteriaa, and tha remainder la divided by tht total unit shipments to gat an average lead weight par battery. In th* cas* of 196), 1 have assumed th* same average lead weight par battery as occurred In 1962 end th* sane Industrial battery tonnag* to arrive at tha total estimated requirement of 390,000 tona which la 3fcl below what 1 aspect tha final 1962 consumption figure will be.
A/12/63.
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C.S. AUTO VEHICLE 4 STORACI BATTERY STATISTICS Compiled For LtW Industries Aimt, lne.( April IMI ---------
(Unit* x 1000)
VEHICLE) Rrglatrat Ions, Total 0.9., Jon. 1 2. RrglatratIons, Now - 12 Mo. J. Scrappagt, btlaotod 4. Raglatrstions, Total 0.8. Doe. )1
196)* 1962
1961
1960
1939
19)8
19)7
1936
193)
1934
(a) 79200 76))0 7)947 71668 68740 67470 63270 62780 3876) >6280
(b)
7900
8008
677)
7320 6981
)381
6840
6830 8127
636)
<e> 6000 )000* )000* 4927 3211 4179 4264 4948 4392 4)3)
(a) 82000 79200 763)0 73947 71668 68740 67470 63270 62780 3876)
0*1 CDIAL COOIFMEMT SALES1
Fatsengfr Cor -
). O.S. Factory Solo* 6. Inporto
.7 Total Fasaangar Cor
Truck 6 ba -
a. O.S. Factor? Salo*
9. Imports
10. Total Truck 6 Bus
Total Original Iqalpaart
11. O.S. Factory Solos 12. Inporta
1). Total O.S. Solos
(d) 68)0 69)) 3)43 667) 3391 42)8 611) )816 7920 3339
(*> jas 384 2aa 471 697 444 264 109 38 33
72)3
7)17
38)2
7146
6288
4702
6)77
)92)
7978
3)94
<d> 118) 1240 11)4 1194 11)7
(*) 13 12
9 24 22
1200
12)2
1143
1218
11)9
877 13
892
1107 8
111)
1104 >
1107
1249 1.3
1230
1042 .3
1042
(d> 80)3 817) 6677
7869 6729
)133
7221
6921
9169 6601
(a) 400 396 298 49) 719 439 27) 112 60 36
84)3
a)69
6973
8364
7448
3394
7494
70)3
9229
6637
A CTO. STORACE BATTEXT HARXXTt
5. O.t. Faaaongor Car
a. O.C. - Truck k Bus
14. O.S. - Tractor 1). O.C. - Total 16. Baplacroant 17. Cxporta - 6V 4 129
ia. TOTAL ACTO BATTERIES
68)0
69))
3)43
667)
3391
4238
611)
3816
7920
3)39
118)
1240
11)4
1194
11)7
877 1107 1104 1249 1042
(f) 2)0 222 202 187 289 268 274 277 377 28)
826)
8)9)
6879
8036
7017
340)
7494
7197
9346
Wk
(> 29000 30486 28)11 26)29 27493 23270 23943 23014 238 28 2 J771
(*) 2)3 2)4 2)9 180 217 219 271
361 429 409
)7)00 3913) 3)429 34)6) 34729 30892 3)706 32572 3580) 31066
TCWS Of LEAD USED PI BATTOT HANUfACTCmMCl
19. A Htl (Crld*9 posts)
<h) 202 210 186 173 187 160 186 192 196
20. Aa Out Can
(h) 188 193 182 178 19) 13) 173 179 184
21. Total for oil battori os
390
403*
368
)5)
381
313
341
371
380
22. Loos Industrial battorloo
() 47 47 40 41 39 30 40 42 40
23. Load used Auto. Typos 24. Ararat* Found* par Auto. Battory
34) 18.3d
338 18.)d
328 18.3d
312 18.Id
342 19.7d
283 18.3d
321 19.0d
329 20. 2d
340 19.Od
oforonca* (a) Autoontlv* Industries Count (b) k. L. Folk 6 Co. (c) Auto. Hfgr. Assoc. to 1960
(d) Auto. Mfgr. Assoc . (c) D*pt. of CoNwrcc (f) hr. of Census
(S> A.A.B.M. (h) Bur. of Mines () bt. by C.W.Cross
Koto - Atuka A Rowat t Raft at rat tona Includad batttmlni 19)9.
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32 303 19.6#
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