Document ykb769Y36YzGYbRvJ0wZM3nB3

Nature Vol. 289 15 January 1981 115 Explosive reaction from sources which I consider discreditable. There are many misunderstandings, Sir -- Lovins'1 review "Nuclear weapons and . oversimplifications and omissions in 1. Lovim. A.B. Hmwrr 2*2. S17-S23 (ISSO): trratuia Mwir 2X4, 190119002. 2. Po.*r p.J2 (Nowmbir 1977): Butt tiom. Sani. M. 62: 59 (1971); 25. SO. 57 (I979n PV* Tod,, p.S4. power-reactor plutonium" lacks mention of prior rebuttals to his position2-1. Moreover, in following the transition of this article with a widely circulated draft (personal ''Lovins' treatment of near-critical fissile masses: the difference between reactivity and excess reactivity; the role of synergistic effects; and his inability to distinguish between (December I97S): p.13 IInly 1979). 2. De Volpi, A. Prefi/iwm, Piotoontm, ,d Poite,: littiuviioml nd 7er6*oio|/ Imprtimnts lo SVrUtr Wropon Onpmfno* (Pcrtamon, Oilsrd. 1979). 4. Sehilt, S. Nomn 1X7. 571 (I960). communication, 20 March 1978), one senses a laboratory and field developments. 1 have post hoe justification for his testimony at the Windscale nuclear-fuel reprocessing hearings. The conclusions drawn by Lovins are unsupported by the analysis. He implies that "power reactors are not an implausible but are identified and studied eight phenomena that can adversely affect the yield of an explosive configuration: critical mass dilution, metallurgical phase change, radial compression, subcritical multiplication, Role for ESF? Sir -- One aspeci of its work that ihe European Science Foundation (ESF) could substantially expand (Nature 20 November rather potentially a peculiarly convenient type predetonation, generation time, reactivity limit 1980, pages 202, 204) is the sponsoring of of large-scale Pu production reactor". If and surface leakage. Lovins ignores most of scientific conferences and schools, especially power reactors were such practical sources, them. in interdisciplinary areas. nuclear-weapons states would not be operating The interpretation that "the least The association of NATO Advanced Study special-purpose military plutonium production favourable moment cannot get any less Institutes and NATO Summer Schools with reactors -- they would be buying up favourable" for an explosive yield is the NATO military pact is a matter of j reactor-grade plutonium for their weapons contradicted by Poisson statistics -- a continuing shame to the academic community. programmes, instead of storing it in pools. Reactor-grade plutonium is a dangerous substance, able to sustain a nuclear explosion. predetonation contour that Lovins notes but fails to apply. His repeated conception that the "worst case, minimum, `fizzle' yield is still-- Scientific organizations should be pressing the national governments to agree to the ESF taking over NATO's role in conference But Lovins fails to quantify its military value. `militarily useful' ", is inconsistent with sponsorship and funding in Europe. The US For governments that contemplate probability theory. side could presumably be accommodated via ___ becoming nuclear-weapons stales, the Examination of the citations taken by bilateral NSF-ESF arrangements. accessibility of plutonium is only one factor others are the quality of material, the Lovins from Wohlsietter and Gttinsky indicates the origin of his circular arguments Let's end the shameful military link with scholarship forthwith! availability of facilities, and the possibility of regarding plutonium denaturing. Of the M.K. Wallis nuclear-explosive testing. There are numerous limited official information generally University College, disincentives too. available, most current reviews depend heavily Cardiff, UK ' For "amateurs", there are hurdles not mentioned by Lovins. In general, plutonium generated in power reactors is not suited for on R.W. Selden's unpublished conclusions, which are self-contradictory. it is incorrect to state "categorically that Theories of cancer military applications, and unauthorized access bombs from reactor-grade or deliberately Sir -- In reviewing my book The Polities of has been severely restricted by physical `denatured' Pu are less effective, less powerful Cancer*, Peto2 charged that one table (Table safeguards. His superficial treatment does not or less reliable than those made from weapons- 6.4) selectively and deliberately omitted data help our common goal of minimizing the grade Pu". On the other hand, using a term that would otherwise have questioned the propagation of nuclear weapons. from Lovins, it is "disingenuous" to deny that conclusion that low dietary doses of saccharin There are some specific technical objections: those attributes may be applied to the average (0.01 per cent) are carcinogenic in rats. This His introductory paragraphs are not justified properties of denatured plutonium. I estimate statement is incorrectly based on comparison by the subsequent analysis. He applies such that plutonium can be isotopically denatured of Table 6.4 with data in an appendix to the terms as "unsuitable", "usable", "inferior", as effectively as a5U or U3U at a given fissile report of the Office of Technology and "less than optimal", to power-reactor Pu. fraction. All reactor fuels and reactor types Assessment2. However, the caption of Table He generates a list of "assumptions" that pose comparable levels of difficulty regarding 6.4 clearly states that it is based on another represent selected extremes, later to render weapons application, given corresponding table, prepared by Melvin Reuber for use in them "false". Although he says "We must safeguards and fissile fractions. Weaknesses of the congressional testimony on saccharin by know exactly what `less than optimal' (Pu for one or the other should be identified and the Health Research Croup on 21 March bomb-making] means", he does not define it. remedied. However, the relative reactor 19774. Peto persisted in publishing this serious Lovins eventually admits that there is usability and supply of isotopically denatured allegation in spite of two warnings. "somewhat greater technical difficulty in plutonium is another matter. Peto also appears unfamiliar with the using power-reactor Pu for effective military The point that the "marginal time and content of the Office of Technology bombs." money required to use civil reactors for Assessment's report, which he cites as the His "conservativeassumption" that military production are orders of magnitude basis for his charges on saccharin. This report arbitrarily high even-isotope content will not ' less than those needed for dedicated military explicitly discusses Reuber's low-dose data and affect his arguments has been challenged, facilities," has an element of truth mixed in his conclusion that "the increased incidence of although Lovins does not mention the with carefree terminology. One must lymphosarcoma of the thorax in rats at the contradiction. On that assumption, Lovins differentiate between base power reactors and .0.01 per cent... are highly significant in the proposes that "Pu discharged from power small research reactors. Research reacton do saccharin study"5. Reuber also emphasizes reacton will... have major military indeed provide a hedge, a "civilian cover" for that the carcinogenic effects of saccharin in potential". His Table 2 does not reach high tome weapons-grade plutonium production; various studies were not always dose-related. concentrations of the even-plutonium however, power reactors are self-protected and Contrary to Peso's impressions, inversions isotopes, thereby preventing the reader from inaccessible under an appropriate safeguards in dose-response data are not uncommon in making independent judgements on the regime. both experimental and epidemiological efficacy of isotopic denaturing at higher even- Institutional and technological safeguards carcinogenicity studies. Reasons for sudt isotope concentrations. Independent estimates can minimize diversion and proliferation. As inversions include competing risks, of dramatic reductions in explosive yield that our respective nations expand their arsenals of heterogeneity in tested populations, and accompany isotopic dilution1-* are not destructive weapons, such misplaced concern statistical fluctuation, particularly when dose- included in Table 2. only adds to irresolution. One can transcend response curves are shallow. Peto also fails to He categorizes his choice of parameters as some of the dispute by noting that inter recognize that saccharin has produced "realistic", thereby dismissing the deleterious national safeguards and a ban on all testing tumours in experimental animals at low as well effects of other forms of denaturing. Lovins of nuclear weapons are the most promi as at relatively high doses. claims that my "analysis of weapons physics nent and effective steps that should be taken. Contrary to Peso's impression (hat "it is not seems deeply flawed". That is the entire support he gives to the charge. Yet, his own A. De Volpi surprising that so many chemicals (such as saccharin) at such (high) doses can cause "weapons physics" is sparse, lacking any Argonne National Laboratory. cancer in animals", there is an overwhelming equations, and sustained mainly with citations Argonne, Illinois consensus in the qualified, independent f * 116 Nature V6L 289 ' IS January 1981 scientific community that high-dose testing does not produce false positive results; and that this is necessary to reduce the insensitivity of carcinogenicity tests, reflecting the small number of animals tested compared with large human populations at presumptive risk*. It is also well recognized that carcinogenicity testing in excess of maximally tolerated doses (MTD) can produce false negatives due to competing toxicity. Peto's charge of selective omission of the saccharin data is not his only misrepresentation. After his circulation of . drafts of his review to various US experts in the autumn of 1979, Schneidcrman, then Associate Director for Science Policy of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and co-author of the government report on the importance of occupational carcinogens', explained in a letter to Peto that breast oncer correlates as well with Cross National Product as fat, that occupation had been ignored in studies exclusively associating lung oncer with smoking, that there have been major recent increases in lung cancer among noo-emokers and that there have been "big and frightening" recent increases in cancer incidence which cannot be accounted for by smoking or other lifestyle factors. Similarly, Upton, then Director of NCI and a co-author of the report7, challenged the erroneous charge that a "4-5" multiplication factor was used to inflate the 197S government estimates of oncer anticipated from occupational exposures. .. This simply is not true..." Repeatedly, Peto dismisses as personal views statements in The Polities ofCancer to which he takes exception, rather than recognizing that they are based on fully referenced primary sources and without attempting to challenge these sources directly. For instance, he disparages the conclusion "that the cure rates for major cancers have not been improving much over recent years" without noting that this reflects cited NCI data. Peto refers to the "claims that cancer costs the US economy over S2S billion per year" without recognizing that such figures are derived from NCI sources. Similarly, Peto criticizes as "misleading or unbalanced" references to the term "medical-industrial complex" without attribution to its source, referenced and identified in the text (p.77), as the caption of an editorial in The Lancet. Peto charges that the book denigrates the value of short-term carcinogenicity tests, which he asserts is a "most inexplicable error of scientific judgement". While problems of . such tests, particularly the limited associations between carcinogenicity and Ames test data for compounds from a wide range of structural classes*-10 are recognized, the book concludes (p.68) that there is a "range of useful applications" for them tests, particularly when incorporated into battery protocols. - Peto accepts that industries "delay or dbstnict any hygienic measures which will cost money.... (and) that the scientific literature is not immune from distortion by financial interests". Peto apparently also accepts file wide range of case studies in The Politics of Cance-. which document a common pattern of constraints, including manipulation, distortion and destruction, in health, safety and economic data generated or interpreted by industry and its consultants. Yet he seems willing to accept studies sponsored or endorsed by industry as authority for the nearly exclusive lifestyle theory of cancer, causation. Moreover, he is opposed to further regulatory controls on grounds of costs, professed "inactive conservatism", and because "for - most toxic chemicals, we now have both qualitative and quantitative uncertainty about the health benefits of restriction". This teems a questionable basis for prudent public health policy. Samuel S. Epstein School ofPublic Health, University ofIllinois at the Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois t 1. Eevtim.s.5 TMPd&jxi4/Crtr(SwraClubkooks, Swi PimdMS ISTC. mnMd tnd opuM < Anchor/ IMMil, Non York, ISTS, ro which owuiiom rrfn). 2. Pm.E.NWw*SS.ZS7.M>(IStO). 1. G--cw Tmimt 7~f*mWoe> nd SwrQnwn US. CoojTt. Wuhirision. D.C- Jinw I. ISTT. 4. Wotfc. S.M. Jnhiooo. A. CitaemHmht Mmmrtk Growl Tumour apWv, SotesoMUMr oo NaoM, Moor Coipmow CoonoWoo Mminy on SorrOorOi, Mvtbxt, ten. 5. aookw. M-P. EnWr. HU* Pompon IS. ITS CISTS). t. k*on 10 tho Sorfooo GmotoL USPHS. tmheHm vf gink--iwitiCkwimfWtilCWsrC--ilm--lkr . gtMooiioo ol too ton* of ioiimro null Ckiicpl CorOom--, April a. irO). 7. Mdbord. K. oral JfcMONOrtTrtrAuction erConcorln JW UUuesmmUtlHte nOavqvmalFvmn(NO. Nodoool Inodnoo of Enyvowoonol Makk SeWncrn. m4 Nataol Inoonuc for Ocroporionol Softly oa4 Hank*. IS Snewakor. ISTS). S. Lows,A. 1110(19711. t. awtoA SJ. a Losmot. M-S. CnncrrMro. M. J2S*ll*tn , 10. /nwrootionofProffwn/or OWEnoWohon WSAorr rrm rmo/OrCornooicnnroNiuonolTooicolosy Ptostwn. IWacotHaakkoaS MhmoZwWw AprO, ISSO. The article "fallacies of lifestyle cancer theories" by S.S. Epstein andJ.B. Swartz begins on page 127 ofthis issue. Spanish science \. Six -- The publication (feature 23'October 1990, p.674) of the Manifesto oh the status of science in Spain issued by leading academics and scientists of universities and research institutes is a major event. I wouldlike-io" * make a few comments from the viewpoint of a scientist who has been working closely for over icn yean with coDeagus at Spanish universities. This is a time of great expectations both; nationally and internationally for Spanish' science and engineering. Democratic changes . and heightened national expectations have' opened the door for a major strengthening'of scientific, engineering and technological work. The largely dormant past in universities and the undeveloped governmental infrastructure for science are living way to a healthy stirring throughout the'whoie system. A recent visit to Madrid confirms a vigorous self-examination of the structure of research and teaching with significant organizational changes proposed. There is, of course, no unique set of circumstances that will guarantee motivation of faculty and students, but there generally appear to be three essential elements. Scientists must be assured ofgovernment respect for scientific work without political interference; there must be reasonable.finahcial support and Job opportunities for researchers and graduate students; and'there must be adequate and respected links between government, universities and public andprivate research institutions. Only the first element is now firmly in place. Difficulty in providing the'Vl second dement is not unique to Spain, but occurs in many industrial countries ofmoderate size where the number of research positions is limited. At the moment, for this; reason, some of the best Spanish science and engineering graduates see their future abroad. * Academia might themselves develop research institutes within,the universities ' directed to national needs such as high technology, enginetrini services, mitigation of, earthquake and other natural hazards, and .' . agricultural improvements.'Although such effortsare exhausting and time-consuming, entrepreneurship to draw in industry, provintial'gqycrnments and private funds b an essential part of scientific vigour. The Manifesto appears to address largely the central government. No doubt, realistically at this stage, the-major funding forrcsearch must come from Madrid. but. in thelong run; aV, diversity of support would appear tobe the / most'fniitful. .1 The third element shoiild be easier to' achieve since it does not in itself entail much . expenditure. Theneedto examinecritically scientific goals and infrastructure related to national needs tub in other countries led to the establishment of something like a Royal Commission with independent powen to probed report and recommend. Strengthening and linking govemmettt instituia undertaking research; similar to the higher effective scientific and industrial research organizations of Australia. New Zealand and elsewhere might be coiuideted. Thereappeari to be a need to integrate government scientific ] -. msiitutestnorecloselywithuniversities,given the new social dimate in Spain in which ' , protection from debilitating political agitation b not required. From myown experience, itb crucial for scientists and engineers in Spaimoorganize/ ' themselves systematically to that their -: professional societio and academia are '' ; representative and respected. The work of such associations can clearly demonstrate to the bodypoliiic(ofal) parties) that among the ' many competing interests in a modem state,' ' science should have a high priority on both economic and cultural grounds. Rather than an emphasis on "rights", continual M demonstration b heeded of the way that \ scientific enquiry really mainuim itself in a . free society. Againi frden my own experience..:. it b important to cultivate those members of t fib COnes who are scientists, engineers, technologists and economists. If they are to accept the respqnsibOiiy of spcalcing for the Spanbh scientific community they must have the necessary contaas and realistic proposals that can be argued effectively. ' -v' . Finally, as a sympathetic outsider, l am ' - struck bytherole that Spanish science and ' technology might play in the developing world. Much of Coitml and South America 1 lics open. ofte would suppose, to the ; / - establishment of dose tics with Spanish scientists and instituttorit. The valuc of ; ' . common languageand other heritaga cannot be overemphasizad. Although some cultural and scientific lies have been forged, there are . exciting possibilities for sin expansion of' ~ teaching, scientific exchanges, bjlaterid r scientific and technological agreements. , `Through such channels, the idealism and- abilities of many Spanish science graduates : could .find a natttral place that serves not only national self-interest but also the global -I responsibility of all soenrists. Might we hoc / 1 . look forward to a vigorous Spanish science that belongs not only to Europe but abo^to the Americas? Fan of the answer lbs in the force = of the Manifesto itself. :'v~K .`J "' i``' University of California, Berkeley, California ; Bauct A. Bolt,