Document x5dN2b0kxG9ZBonZr7oBLXpNy

mm ~~V ir i ~nnnirti > huwtiAaMSdkt LI A16179 > 3 i 4 t j i For nlMM llguat k, 19kT lead Industries Assoclstlen L20 loxlngtcn Arenas *ew Zork 17, K. Z. ' ^. - Address before Kitting Association of *"-*-- : Butt*, Montana August k, 19k? ns f p t o z o f mo By lcbrt Llndlay Zlsgfsld Acting Secretary lead Industrial Association ew Zork City * Z& speaking of tha future of load Z want to talk about lta loot tine future and not what la Just aroood the corner,* Za ao doing Z an te>rlr.g thr risk of sarin* aany this** that art eld atorlaa to wining eon, but Z think thaa* things boar repeating often, and particularly new, last they ba forgotten. There art aooe oho say that aa a nation we art rating oat of load and that its future la questionable, Z beliert that the** ealsadty healer* do a groat deal to hurt the load lndaatry. When cowtaars of lead are told repeatedly that o here lead re- oerroa auffleiant to last only 10 or 15 years sore, they natnrally intensify their eearoh for substitute*. When there la also a tem porary shortage end e high price, as tbara has bean reoently, ecn- eunir* naturally giro mo t s credence to what the pesaladata aay tha they otherwise would. But Z cannot go along with those who aay that wo are auffoi* lng fro* a lack of lead rcaarroa. Z an therefore deeply concerned ]}ua .'.I'liniii.t jgi ij.ui. iiei'iia t.i;pi... iiii.ij ii i j u iu !ig.,a.miui.i. LIA16180 f -7that, ualaas -- attenpt to sat the record straight, we will flat *c-- of our pat sensu--rs f--ding in other pastures whan tba tins c o m# a* It inevitably will, that laad production exasad* rt--anili . Mo doubt you hara seen Inmaerabla reports In the laat faw 7ara on tha laad reserves of thia oc--try, In general, thaaa 1 purport to abew that la tan or fifteen yeere wa will km no nor* laad la tha Halted State*. Sadly enough It la possible to taka figures which art socad fren aa snginaariag and nathanatleal wlan* polat and pro-- that, walaaa you're trying to proa* It to an--ana who knows `Such figure* ha-- to b* interpreted by alidm --a, not lags* nan* Iwyoca bar* knew* of nlnoa that 15 or 20 poors ago wnr* aatinatad to ha-- only a faw nor* yaara of Ilf* laft la than* to* day no*t of thaaa aa-- adaoa arw producing as t hay --r* 15 or 20 y*ars age with still yaara of Ufa ahaad, ter ex--pie, la Daoanbar 51, 1937, thr-- big laad prod-era la tha Mortlarwat roportad caahined or* re*err-- of 1,026,000 tana* Bttwaan that ti-- and Decoder 31, 1915, la a period of nlaa yaara, thon aa-- three nlaa* extracted --re than 6,000,000 tons of ore, let on Deeoaber 31, 1916, the aa-- thr-- nlass reported er* raaareoa of 3,750,000 tons, or aaarly the a--a figure thay roportad nine yaara before. In other word* bar* is tha balanoa ah--t for tboa* thr-- big >i Rowr--a, toe, 31 19)7 Production, p--. Jl, 1937 to Dec. 31, 1916 Apparent Deficit Retcrrea, Dee, 31* 1916 Actual Ore found to Doc. 31, 1916 beyond aatl--ted roaenroa Dec, 31, 1937 1.026.000 toes 6.000.000 tons 1.971.000 ten* 3.750.000 tens 5,721,000 tona eaan^HlW--y----WWW------v i miuiu jiwrn ij _ j .ii jaimeuejnin. h i H I; LI li.m' j m"i I  raiaMMh LI A16181 tf the txut mthanatlcal reeeenint of io m of th* wnulltd ojg>erte,* thoee adnei ehomld hero boon axhauetod ewrortl J>urt aye aad by the mm* r*eeoning they ebould here only fir* aore jam te (o, Set Im aura that no o m bora would bat on their emanation 1b fir* year*. And the*# art ulnae that har* baas producing aoa tlnuoualy for aa ouch aa 50 y*ara. Shat tbo format la that ttaaaa adnaa haaa aaat tonnage* of ora that aren't yat In tight. tha aaaa thing appllee to tha natioc'o total raaarvM of load. Who know* but that 15 or 20 yaar* fren now tha eaon axperta U1 proclaim that aa haaa but a 10 or 15 yaar oupply of load, jat aa thay proclaim today. Othar factora not takaa Into account la aaeb aotlaotoo ot raaarraa ara changing ecooaedc and technelogio eondltiona. If higher prlooa prorail in tha future than at tha time ootlaatao are made, naturally the raaarraa My ba greatly laeraaaad* Moat raoaatly publicised astiiutea war* mada a*r*r*l yoara ago when laad waa 6.51 par lb. Km it ia about 2} tlMa that figure. Alae flotation *atMpad tha ^>erU* tgr making coMarcial or* out of any depoeite not prorlouily workable at a profit. So m paopla nay any that rwoorery la now eo hdgh thet technologic daralo^aasU can hare little affect In the future. Perhapt reeorery comet ba greatly Increatad but technologic derelopmente may raduoa aoata to permit profitable recorary frtai lomor (rnda or*#. Another way in wtdeh eetiaaU# of raaarraa for tha country aa a whole fail to ba raaliatic ia that thay are arerugea. The total rwaenraa are eatiautad and dlTided either by annual produo- tlon or ocnauapUon to **t the nmber of y*ara left la our land Inae. hut production and oonaiasptlon rary. If we uaad the pro* m*m mmmm* m mm. 1m LIA16182 &* \ l *A i i .1 >i i * . < \ ' daetleo or eenainptloc of tha 30a, wad pt anoh loogar llfa than IX w* uaad that of tha JO'a or *!/)#. Tihe an toll accurately at what rot* wa*ll operate enr the ant IS or 20 year*. But having doe* this arlthaatlo, w# aaraly boro an averaga for the whale oovntzy. If ooeh property ca tbo othor bond were figured eeparately, h m would ahov aueh longer Ufa tboa othare. Tboa even If the reeervea of ac m alnoo were exhaaated before tbo average tor tha oountry u a whole, otbara would loot longer thao the average ud aa'd atill have aoaa production, even if at a raduoad rata. But new develcpaaote generally replace tha eaheswted r*wmi, ao tha original eatiaaVaa go oat tha window and tha whole average la Increased. 1 trip threap tha load producing dletrlete of tha Eorttaroat to aaa tha nrw actirltlaa there, ahould ba oonvindug of thla. Vhat it all holla dom to la that nobody cats alt doan and aaka a rtudjr of our load roaouroaa and eay that we have Jtmt ao moaj jraara of load nypliat laft in thla country. fhara ara too any tMaga that aoeh a poraon can't aaa. Thara la uadleeovered ora, unknown technique, unpredictable prleaa and eeata. duet aa an axaapia of ho./ rldieulcma aueh attaepta ara, I recently raoalTad a latter freo tha editor of a popular, largo circulation atgatlne. Bo aald that ha vaa preparing an article oo tha wincral reaouroaa of tha Unitad Stataa. Anong other thlnga ba waatad our aatloata of tha load rwoervea of thla country at tha tla Aaarlca waa die* oovered. That would ba poor anauer to that queeticnT fhara la cnly one poatitle anavar and that la that ear load raaarraa war* nil at that tlM. Bobody had found any load here up to than. Bat that <afa^pappjj||t.^iaiii4tuBLJ-JEM" umat ,wniMiiaawn ---in aaaiwBapwr^|w-nrwiM<iaMm',wwn .-.nittfcwMi tenet L I A 16183 iM --> ,`n^ .. doeantt mu that there oaafcU any lead, millone of torn hava boon Blood tinea and uUlloas of tons will atlll bo tlnart. Tot tbo *jg>orto* would hoy* hod to 0*7 that m bad oaro yean of load tu^ly when tbo country oat dtooovorod, instead of tho non thoa bOO yean of rasarvea that wtva alroady proved o had* So Z oay that such Botbooutlcal ootloatoa of oor load ro> , ' eerrao ooroo no aaaful purpose, bet ratbar ol tlaart tho odaforood to ecnclude that wo aro a nation without adequate load reserves, ^ . Tblo loadt thoa to eeeooet various ^iw mm to oka out our aMillad Had.tod reserve*, whoa a fraoZy opantlag, onhaaporad Blaine 1 ruins- try la the only really effective way to apply tha dooand for aatal. That hot boon proved 1b tha past tqr tha derelopoont of tha greatest <"<"! laduotT7 la tha world through tha Initiative of Abo ri oaa MU Today and for tha paet for yuan wa haaa baao ahla to toll ovary pound of load that oaa ha produoed or i^ortod* Ta ooatt oa- paet that altuatloo to last forever. ~u aaod go book only a fow yaara to a tljaa whoa wo hod to acretoh to get rid of evoa o greatly redwood production. Per lnatanoa, tha available ttqiply of load froa all eouroea thli yaar la tha 0. S. ebould ba oleaa ta 1,100.000 toot, whleh should about equal conauaptioc, but Juat fifteen yoara ago, la 1932, conaueptioo was only a little Bora than bOO,000 tone. Kina production alone la 19b7, or secondary production alone la 1917, aoold just about have takas oars of ttttt, without aay balp frea iaporta, Tat juat thrao yaara bafora 1932, la 1929, ooneunptloa waa alaoet 1,000,000 tena, I hara hart a table showing the oonauiytlcn la tha United State* for tha yoara 1920 through 19b6, It clearly ahowa bow ocnauaptloa fluotuataa and hw rapidly tha change* oeeur. --, -^ ^- 1liiiariii#rwir^i"*i;Wi ArirtirrrTf ~ ''rr - ..i air" - * LIA1618A - -.. 6..*,____ HAD COKSOtmOB XI IKE DS (AMrloaa Bureau of Petal 1 (In Short Tuna) 1920 1921 1922 1923 1926 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 606,800 520,550 683,150 768,000 812,150 856,500 900,900 814,950 930,600 972,300 768,600 567,700 116,700 669,500 1936 1935 1936 1937 1938 ^ 1939 1914 1961 1962 1963 1966 1965 1966 686,000 536,900 633,550 678,700 &6,000 667.000 782.000 1,069,900 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,090,000 1,000,000 925.000 ** whet la tha effect of all thla talk about depleted re* i, eaablned with t*cpor*xy ibart^n, oc your aurtceere, tla ----- -- --- 1.^4 X ac that it la aarlooa. A neater of really large 7r1 eoeeueere hara aakad oa to el*a the* tha trua facta about tha alt^ atloo boeauaa they wanted to knew whether they oouU oontlaaa to plaa on tha uaa of lead la their product*, laterally If a oooaimr thlaka ha won't ha abla to bay laad tan or flftaaa years tenaa, he*a tolac to look far a aubatltuta and If ba flnda one, ha may ^ka tha ehaaca froa load araa though ha doaan't hara to. la ether worda, aialeadlng raporta of our laad raaarraa siaply eerre to apur the aaareh for substitutes, particularly whan ewUnad with taajsorery hostages and hlch prloaa, . 6 whaa wa taka a look at the future of lead, we have *i*e to eonaldar eenrapUon. >*t will tha let* tla* trend be? Already wartiae reatrlotloee and high prloaa hate retailed la a draatlo out la tha uaa of laad for foil aanafaotore whloh haa ...... -- p iw p h ipm. i mmmm i I * 9 1 . i V r 9 2 aadiaia#*ii*ii*ia mltsuiis i VII -aaiMMa&y,iii<ftH liBfc LIA 1618 5 , MW. -:,*,.. drcppad frt* about 1*5,000 ton* la 19U. to laas than k,000 la 1&6# Thar# ha* bate astir* rsssaroh to subatituts for laad la paint*, eabl* oorarin**, gaaollna, ohaslcal oquipnaut, and alasubsru. What fcappansd la th* oaa* of foil la alao happening la tbs aatt of annual hi* tuba*# So X think It la laportast that aanufaetorara of ruoh prod* act* tew# that they will b* abl* to eoctlau* for nan? yuan to (at th# laad thay naad. Tbajr should raaliaa that recant aborts*** of load ara 1 aafiorary la natura and not th* rasult of (kindling *+" areas, aad that currant eenawptloa la probably vail aboaa nonsl. Thay should kaoa that aw* 30,000 tooa of load, or nearly 10 par aaot of dceaatlo ala* production laat yaar, aa prodoead fro# proparti** that *r* not producing prior to 19U2, aoat of tha# not producing until 19Ui and that new production will probably ccnpaaaata for any loat production, They should know that la a fa* yaar thara dll probably bo aluhla new producUoo froa several African propartlaa, fro# Canada, Australia, and parties elsewhere, a* wall aa fro# Idaho, Uoetana, California aid otbar parta of tha tkdtad States. Thay should raalla* that deneatic ainaa gra atlll short sons 20 par oant of a full labor supply, that raoont ahartagsa My b* largely attributable to that and to ahnoraal l-nanf, Md not to depletion. Two thousand additional nan oould bring produo* tion up eloaa to that of tha poak war jraar, 1SC2. jhay should raalla* that davelopaant vaa *gl*et*d during th* war and tlwt It takaa' a Uttla tin* to oatoh up on that. On tha othar hand just aa I hae* said that oonaunara should raallsa that In tha lorjar future thara should be a^la land to go wwaa>iu, _,yiyi ib.w j l 'j j l w mmmmm LIA 1616 6 *rt- f.'*nHi. mm. -idUMaL^.---------- A ........................... ...... .. wtwfwwwwrwu iw ' I'ttw o a a o i "mmm -4aroundj producer* duet realise that toe* Tha tint will whan supply will Bade than equal danand, Thoa* who heva lud to mU ean never afford to relax offorta to protact airicatf ad to look for now c o m. It faaa boos Mid that tha tlaa to proparc for war la la tlaa at peace* Whan tha ooncuaiag pipe> line* that vara draiaad by tha war art again fillad and tha fall Inpact of oonpatitlon with new aatarlala la fait, eonauaara Boat knew what tha load mo do for than and that tha mining industry ean supply tha load thoy11 need* Tha tlaa to tall than in now, nil tha tlaa* lot's Just. aTarim quickly a ft* of tha competitive proto laaa load flow. 2'*a already aantionad foil and oolltptibia tohaa but bar* ara tone otharai ` yiaatiea far eahla ahatthing* Special prooaaaat lnatoad of tetraethyl load to produas high octant gaanHnt* Titaalaa dioxide, tine oxide and tine chrenata la paint* Steal, lrcn, copper, brut and plastiea la p'l~M"g, Rubber, etranlca, gltat, ttalalaaa atoal, nontl artel and plaatiea in chenical aquipaaet* DDT and other compounds in intactleidoa, dollar baaringa inataad of babbitted brtriage, Concrwta in x-ray and nuclear protection, Thara art others* Scot of laad'a aarkata inevitably wilt be lost* Sana new aarkata, like tha eisable tonaagoa of lead ato raadr being uaad in connection with atcoie fiation, will natural*ly develop, But there it tha eenatant battle for aarkata* Xvae in tha now atcoie field there era other aatarlala vying fog thin aarkat* w fdc*MU.j<o^hU * a '&*Ud4 'Mrt<t*. WWWWWMHMW. nil Mill*' ' lo .." wi*itaaw^ rm.-rf ,T.wi^i,rfiii-1|||||. L IA 1618 7 A > * ------------------------------------------- -*m------------------ ----------------- '*- -- I*d Ilk* to *nd with a f*w rathar gmaral ccoclwclcas* Thar* will *ooii b* *iuh load produced In th* Belted state* and *l**wh*r> to balaac* ecn*iaa*r* naad* and to mora than balano* th avaetaally* Oar r*Mrve* af lead will oontlaa* to Mm tkl* o c x mXt j for ma ? jrwam i* o o m, no on* e*n s*y haw long* Th*** ' will h beat dlaoa"r*r*d and d*v*lsp*d ty a wlnia* induatry fr*a af bur*auerstlc control* and artificial iao*stlvwe Tbar* will ha h m chan***, air**djr etertod, la th* pattern of la*d oona^xtlco, c m* **rlou* lo*a of wark*t* and ic m Important am appllastlona* But by and large, Id Ilk* to osyhMl** that no on* will do our work for ua, Ita op to th* load alnlnf Industry to find th*4ad to a*t dwaanda, which ar* ourrwntly abor* nonaal, a*d to *upljr Industry for jruri to c o m. lad it'a qp to tho load tht'^ industry to protact"*ad to darelop tho aarkata for lta product* that will k*ap th* wLa* buajr prodocinf at a profit and that will prorldo a ftaolM and Dot an artificial imastl** for ajplorwtloa and drralopwast* r ' l t 1 i *w 'Twwpawiwa-,umj.mmgiaumpw l ah nW'i.r*mr- rni*r?