Document wKzRX1j0vmEdByRam7OJNE9KB

LIA1&348 Wi^-jXSWi- rmQ i^l^`f'':^TJt-,*r>TiKil>itfiy LEAD INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION 4S0 CXXIWOTOH AVXNUC n k w row* 17. h . r. THg STCKltg BATT2ST OCTLOOK raft !??? R. L. Sccnorville, President Ths Association of American Battery Manuftcturmrs, Inc* Fhilsdei;fcia, fi. Tour Pru*ldcr.t, Mr. eraser, aorly this Doming indicated that hs preferred that all talks end discussions ba brief. Ba action* at tbs annual bualnot* mooting of your Association oftor luncheon todiy proved that ha meaob hat ha said. Let c m hast to assure you, garrtlooen, that your apoaker for tho Storage Battery industry will not toko 32 par cant of your tine today hacausa that industry consunes 32 per cent of your lead, bo will endeavor to eonform with Chairman Ruth's request that w talk only five minutes* Tha Storage Battery Industry is dividod Into two funeral classifica tions! the Antoaotiwa (or oonauaar foods) field nod the Industrial (or capital foods) field* In tha Industrial estofory sro batteries for railroadsj marlnoi **ltd>far| material handling and, with a nod to Ur. Stover of lostern Electric, tele phones - and eery other applications, so-xj of which cannot be mentioned for security masons. The Industrial battery field la highly competitive and Dost business placed on ono battery suppliar la well known as lost business to all others. It has aeon quite carefully estimated that tha Industrial battery business in 1951 oonyud about 10 pur oent of tho total lead used In storeys battery manufacturlnf Although tharo is still e slsoahlo haritlnf of Industrial battery orders and shipments ere currently running about equal to last year, it is estimated from the rcto at which orders are being placed that 10 percent loss load vill be required in this field in 1952 than In 1951 - reduction in load conjunction from 37,359 tons to 33,623 tens. This, howevjr, because Inckcstriol batteries have a 10 percent relation to the total, affect# the ootiro industry consumption edvorsoly by only one per oent. Tbs Automotive (or oonaumor foods) field Involves four major marketing divisions! fovamnont - origin.-!, equipment - roplacement export - and re placement doaostic. Oovamaent requirements of Autonotivo typo batteries arm well known to all aenufacturors In tho business* Practically all of the buelnoss la placed as a result of opus bidding and a considerable amount of com petition exists for whiteror business is lot. In this field it is quite care fully estimated that the emount of leod required in 1952 will bo $0 pur oent above 1951 requirements. The 1951 roqulraacnts were, as doe# as ** can estimate, 6,101 tens* ftw ly>2 requiromeote will, thoraTore, be In tbs neighborhood at 9,152 tons* Presented at the 21th Armsi Meeting, Lead Industries Association, April 14-19# ui^ijmpmgiiji n au..w,uii "pmi iij immb . ' liwjwntpw.i .;iw,)fig.>itwi!iiipi,jp ,tg."||.wjiiiap!fpi|?igl"u mwinpw^i V I s , f ! t i r, r ; LI Al63^g nSf * K. L. 5 urn rill> -t- The original equipment field (paaganger ears, trucks, off-tbo-highw^r ayffmont, tractors, etc.) will, in our opinion, tnko about 16.8i loss load In 1952 then 1951j a reduction from 83,276 ten* to 69,285 tons, This eatinnto l* bejed on on expucted doeratio in production of passenger ears and truck* of 18.21 os reported by Motor magatlns this w>k, and a reasonable assnsption that tractor production will not ba curtailjd. Bow lot's take a look at tbo third oocpo.nont of tho .Sitometlwe group export ropl.'-conont business, Lcetyoor roplaceocnt batteries export id accounted for 7,662 tons nf load. Estimates by some reliable euthorltlos in this special* sod flold that I howo boon fortunate to hc*o contacted, oxpwct en approximate 10 per cent reduction In automotive bcttcrlos exported this year. On this basis wo can, thoruforo, only expect 6,896 tons to bo consumed. Mow lot's toko a look et the fourth component of the /atomotive merkwt tho domestic replacement field, the largest oonsuaer of load in tho storage battery Industry. Lest year tbo a. i. B. )L reports made for us by Dun k Bradrtroot lndlcatod that approximately 21,025,000 storage batteries wri shipped into this market. It our association convention hors In Chicago Iasi BoTcwbor it wns os Lin.',tod 17 sono wary astute marketers in tho business that 1952 doaostlc shipments would bo botwoon 25 and 26 million. Some work dens bp a market rosoarch group intimately associated with g)r own organisation results in a f Iguro of 25,821,,000. Floaso rcaaabcr that as hod a 2ti,Uhl,000 market la 19h7> 23,725,000 in 191,8 and 23,128,000 in 1950. So that 25 or 26 mil lion would not bs unreasonable nor ovor-optiiilstlo ortlmating. Currontly - moaning sines tho beginning of this yoar - tho domostls replacement battery aarkot would soon to bo doprossod if you oosperu shipments for January and Fuburaiy of 1952 with tho seo period in 1951 or 1950. But lot mo cssuro you, gentleasn, that this apparent depression Is not a *slough of despond*. Ihero is no posaisrtam in tbo replacement storage battery business# Tho ganoral consensus of cpirlor. acorns to bo that 1952 business will follow Its historic ninthly s~los flow pattern. This of course barring Interactional or national crises of ono sort or anothor. Other largo wolumj items in tho outs* motive businosa, like tiros for oxomplo, also soon to bo falling back into thoir historic oonthly saloa flow pattern. On the assumption that the business will follow its norm'll historic pattern, you can projoct 1952 January end Fobur-ry s hipoints and you will arrlwo again at an approximate woluno of 25-1/2 million storage bcttorlse# Row, knowing that 2 was to apposr boforo you, X hswu in tho past fsm d^*a conferred with a largo number of men la our business, who probably rw- prosontod tho bulk of tho Industry. They woro man ^v j , like ayself, bore speed 11 of their business llwos in it) who here soon its upe and dowisj and here oollactiToly thuir sensitive marketing *feelorsa in orary nook and eornor of tho Onltod States. I am pleasod to toll you that Z found no pessimism among ery of th.se guntlomon but I did find doslro to be prudent end oooeorratlwe in tbs e*tinning we would do for you. Practically to a man tho flguro of 23-1/2 million storage bettoriee was estimated and I think it is s wary reasonable flguro on ettloh some of your doterminations should bo made. Twohty-threo and a half million replacement storage batteries in the domestie market mill require 269,091 tone of laad * t m m m ,ii%ii f i p p wif Mi;''iw ii >w w w w ^ nfgw11 111 mmm iiWMMidtfiiii'iilWraTrteiMiMii Mfcaawrtl PMpPPMf LIA16350 mam iiav,'*Plk***c*v K* L. Siii n rt71s :jr o eoopp*(l lth 239,19? ton* laat ysar - an lncroaaa of 12-1^ par eant And undoubtedly tftia 1* good now* to you In rise of *oao of tbs ctbar segsont* of our taiilncss having boon ostimr.tad with dscronao*. Now to *un up. Load consumption Is tho Industrial flald *7 bo down a* aueh ai 10 pur cont. In tho -utemotiTo flold, govermont buslnos* mef bo about 50 pur cont up; original oqulpeont down 16.8 pur contj export roplncoooat dcr.m 10 per cont) doaoetio rcplacoaor.t up about 12.5 por cont - all of which Indicates that load consumption in 1952 will bo abwit U pur cost ahead of th* 1951 figure* - 348,0W ton* against 373,590 ton* roportod laat year. I thank you gantlaaac, far your tins. It ho* boon a pleasure to bring thl* aonort to you* ^s t h o t s s sruua airraer uu> c o k s mo t io m (a t o ms ) 1951 -1952 --t far To t 1951 Industrial..*.. Jotcaotlr* Oovt.................................. 0rlg. Equlpocrrt................... Koplacoaonti Expert.......... 7,66C Doaostlc............... 239,192 Total Boplaceeoet 6,104 43,276 266,456 37,359 Total Autoaotlve........ ................................ 336,231 Industrial and IntoaotlT* Total.......... 373,590 for Taar 1952 Industrial..................... ........................... iatcaottn Oov't....................................... 9,152 Orlg. Equlpnont............ 69,266 Rsplaocmti Export........ 6,896 Dcaostlc........... 269,091 Total foplsoonant............... . 275,94? 33,623 Total Outaaotlva.................................. - 22ukl Industrial and ^utonotlwo Total......... 346,068 fercoot Increase 50.0 - 16,4 > UM> 12.5 11~4 5*61 3.4? amm "MSinil'J'wjuiBiillUji