Document v1nbJYwwORYxDxnmrY4Vmwz89

i,wffB.iL1 mi ^ni w.uiyiy -`Pj * njpjtyy LlA2l9g^. "  gpn rmh i. m.,... n.m.fpPMi. U&21985 .> . ; THE araw LEU) SITUATION* Byi Robert Llndley Ziegfeld, Secretary Lead Industries Association Mew fork, I. I. . Sines I had the pleasure of appearing hers bsfors you Just shout s j year ego, a lot of things bars happened In the lead industry. At that tins we i bad Just completed a yecr of record lead consumption, Marly 1,200,000 tons, of which about 375,000 tons were supplied by the sines of this country, 150,000 tons were produced froa scrap, 21$,000 tons were imported, end acce 100,000 tons wars drawn froa stocks of saelte.'*, manufacturer* and the Government. We i had cone through a year that was essentially free of strikes. The price of lead was 1S< a pound as eoepared with a celling prevailing throughout test of the war of 6.5# pound. That was Just a year ago. Now we can look back on another year Just coapleted. It tree once wore a yerr of unprecedented denand but smelters, manufacturers and the Oevernasat bad no stocks of lead on which to drew. The whole burden of sup-lying industry fell on current production Siich was severely disrupted by extended strikes both in Ulssouri and in tterieo. Nevertheless, e Address delivered before the Colorado 1'lning Association, Denver, Colorado, January 31, 191?* r S Twr.1' 'mi -1 wwi >;snn ge ima'..tJ<M Jl. w N 1905.01 P,-ULi.UWPP T'T myr s p h w w * tm '-"w 1 . -- 'i-..-- a^yy* LIA21986 r"- fliltn iifrfit ^jWateiitow-ninMiiiPi'Wifviii rfdttettiririftrigflifri - *- and dsapite the tact that the demand aa nowhere nearly satisfied, 1 think lead producers can be proud of the record they sale, line production In this country reached 380,000 ton* although some 30,000 tone were lort doe to strikes, Production froa ecrap ctayed near Ita alltlss record and approximated LTO,000 tons. Inports soared to 305,000 tons, despite strikes In Mexico and of longshoremen on both coi't* of this country. So i that even without the 100,000 tons drier, froa stocks In 1917 ths lead Industry supplied alnost as auch laid in 19liS ss it did a year earlier, X call that a truly reaarkable record, seooepliahad against ths handicaps of labor shortages st wost properties and strikes, There can be no doubt that price had lta effect, Froa %5i a pound a year ago lead rose by eteady Increases to 2li< where It has been since Sow, 1 In practically every state except ?ti*sourl, where production was disrupted by strikes, production showed substantial increases. Right here in Colorado In the first tan aonths of 19l3 lead production Increased about 1,0 per cent orer ths saas period a year earlier, th largest Increase of any Important lead, producing state, lhe figure for Colorado for the first ten aonths of 19!i is 20,179 tons, asking Colorado the fifth biggest lead producer, only slightly out of fourth place. In fact, the Increase in production for the twelwe western lead-producing states in ths first ten aonths of 19WJ was 15 per cent over the ssae period of 1947* This was eccoapllsbed with an everago labor shortage In ths sines of about 10 par cent throughout the year, despite the handicap of heavy taxation, and without the aid of artificial incentives. : Certainly this record Indicates that the lead mining Industry of this country Is far froa dormant, that w, are far froa boIn; a have-not nation with respect to lead, It shows that after 15 years of depression and war, eondltlona i 1 .uswwi p.iiijiupwuaii im JWJ'y"swirsej'W'w. J.saiganr'-^w'.r.i. inwginw. I 'iJPJ J *', -" <M 4 JJ**W*WI* piiauiW^ppnHp^r LIA21987 mkflK* ajfwr**. ' -> Tr-'W- 3- ' hav* at last reached a point where the/ eneeurge exploration and derelopceot work. 1 fair price la not only encouraging the eearch for new ore bodiee tat it the strongest poaalble Incentive to naxlmo production in the noat eooaoelcal and efficient way* Those who have pinned their faith on a free marfcwt and free enterprlae have been rewarded with a record breaking price for lead* We would all like to knew how long such condition* will continue to exiet. In other worda* what can we expect fro* here on lnT Our beet bet le to - xanlne all the factors which have brought about today`a condition* and which bear on the future and each cne of ua can draw hi* own coneluainoa* Let'a taka a look at the five principal lead constating industries - storage batteries* cable, construction, petroleum and paint in that order at the present time. These now account for nearly three-quarters of all lead con sumption. And we have a sixth Important buyer cf lead we curt also discuss the Oovarnment* First, storage batteries use roughly one-third of all available lead supplies. To fill the eaqiy pipe-lines left by the war and keep up with the large new car production and rapidly increasing eutoaoblle regietrail one, the battery Industry has been running at record rotes until about a aonth ago* However, there are now definite signs that pipe-lines are filled and dealers wall stocked with batteries, although new car production will probably rensln at high level*, Replacanent batteries will alao have to be supplied for i aevaral million ajv autoacbll.es than pre-war* The daoand of the cable Industry does not seem yet to bar* been sat isfied* Hone substitute* for lead cable sheathing are being used, but Z think . largely to piece rut cable raker* lead supplies* This Industry apparently still - has not antlrely caught up on power and telephone system artenslons delayed by w y wca>fsj iwiiu.u. mew jpw^pi-yifjii.Mi i>.i j ii ufini^y. svnjwmin *u i upfrip,iDi|ij ,ip ij _^p ------* LI A21988 maw r,*. rfMttrfmaas - t. - 3 th* war, although th# pressure la not so great as It was a year >T> Under construction I Include Industrial equipment as wall as bulldin* construction* In the former category ahere lead la used so extensively in chamicd. plants, there appears definitely to have been sooo slackening in general lad sons 1 resistance to the high price of lead. In boas construction, too, the price Is leading to substitution, For example, here la Denver lead has long been the principal Baterial eeployad for water distribution and plashing. Right now there is a concerted effort to substitute less durable natcriala, using pries as the reason, without ary consideration to th# relative long-tiaa cost of lead and Its substitutes. The outlook for lead as an anlt-knock Ingredient In gasoline aeons *o Indicate further increased usage. Present gasoline* do not have the witiknock ratings of pro-war gasolines and modern high conpre.-slon engines call for even higher antiknock ratings. Also nore automobiles Med more gasoline. Consequently manufacturers of tetraethyl laad arc planning expanded production facilities, but no effect of this expansion will probably be fait before late this yoar. In paid, which was once a much more It portent consumer of lead than i it la today, tbs outlook is not so bright, lhc price of lead has caused paint manufacturers to use as little load as possible in their paints, since lead Is even normally their moat expensive ingredient. This is don* at the risk of n sacrificing quality, but it la nevertheless going on to tbe extent that aomt paint makers hsva eliminated lead entirely fhon their fonrulaa. This may not c o b Important now but there will doubtless b* a day when the loss of this market. If permanent, will be sorely regretted ly the load mlnnr, Tn an attcapt to cut coat* and oaks lead #up;J.lc* go farther, a paint plgoent ha* boon developed IWP bgwpiJ* a k"/a.w'g.s>rml imreiuLiua* w? >ai mj > w, " s u iw u imu - Ll*2l989 D -S- In rtilch rich partida hu fillet eon with t surface coating of lend tillcite and sulphate to preserve the chemical reactivity of lead plpaents with paint oils. It is too so n to estimate the lnportance of this development and its effort on tbs lead market. Anon* the smaller usee of lead, nrlcee and shortages have node aome in < roads* Load Insecticides and collapsible tubes* for example, took such lesa lead in 191*6 than In other recent yeara. But at the same tins* newer uses have helped i to ccnpeneate for this* For Instance, ateetle fiction requires lead shielding to protect humans against dai^croue r*y, although at yut this can not ba reckoned aa a major nee of lead* Also (lass television tubes contain as tuch as 30 per cent lead In the fom of lead oxide. While this '.I by no nvana a use that In dicates p*eat contraption of lead aid also Is a use ehlch competes with netsl television tubes, it Is an interesting new application for an old metal like lead* The Government *i plans for stockpiling and rearmanent fcarr an Important bearing on lead*. As you know, 70,COO tors of lead are going into the military stockpllo during the current fiscal yoar ending June 33 next. So far as wo know the GoVermont would like to have t lot sore In its stockpile than that* Mo doubt before long the Inanition* Board will again want to rscet with the sellers of lead to establish its purchasing program beyond Juno 33* t(y on personal opinion la that stockpile requirements for the next fiscal year will be at least as largo as they were this year, probably larger If the lead supply end demand picture permits* j As to the rearsmaent program, it will dotbtleae have some effect on the demand for lead but wo must remonbor that load do*a not go diroctly Into military application# to the same extent at soma other metals* Another factor it E.CJL* X understand that K.C.A* oountrlos would like assistance In getting more load than LCJ, Is granting from oountrloa whloh supply ' iywtj*1- jij-,' ' . yLw.w>fJ- n-if.nj. mf"  ^ J.M^I-1^: '.IHWMLq t'V^gJ'lTOWU^irppyiiWii H -a. mUbt Ticrtttsir I'm '.V HlfclK We LIA21990 0 -6- us u well u Europe* Should there be sore lead available than we need here, there la always the possibility of E.CJL. Increasing It* aaalatanee In setting lead for European oovntrles with the result that leas laports wuld be available to ua( On the supply aide of the picture, X look far continued gradually > Increasing nine production providing the labor supply continues to Itprove end there Is relative freedan froo strikes, Also the huge supply of scrap that has been built up by the treaendous lead conavcptlon of recent yearn, particularly In storage batterlee. Indicates large secondary production, although perb^pe not equalling the last two years* There Is every reason to expect 1"porta to continue heavy. The suspension ^ of the tariff on lead which passed Congre*s last year, expires .Vne 30, but unless therv la sooe drastlr change In the load situation it appears likely to be extended for another year, Hi percurent change in the load tariff is con templated aa it la not listed for cotiiid-retlon In any of the reciprocal trade agree*ent negotiations that have been announced* Producers of course only have snail stocks of lead, ao saall that little -* or none cm be drawn froa then this year. Also nanufecturers' Inventories of lead are low. Those are the facta of the lead situation as I sea than today and I ' going to leave the subject there* X don't want to be like the little girl *>o cane to Sunday school ona day and told her teacher that now she knew where God lived* The teacher said that was fine, where did ha live. She replied, *In our bathroca,* *How do you know that?* asked the teached* "Well,* said the little girl, ^ Every corning ny father goes to tha bathroou door, r-.tU.ea the knob, and says, Xy Ood, are you still In there I" Tou see, you have to use groat cart In drawing conclusions froa u t j given Set of facts*