Document rx6nnk8O6N5kwkEejjz6dv8gJ

jMWJP ipm I'U' iW,Uli.W]JaiWiP<)PH^L>WipplRilWWW^P^ L^Z _ -- 'i*lfctffitVvA' ,^ ^-,,, -,AfiHiV-iir' mtfi nrtifiTiifaiiritfMf mi i `Titfi m, vm*iuvgm>mi 'Wll. y.pgMP.'l>.h j i,w Jiifpi Mmm1 m-.m.i'fiII ' w ' ' tl*z^878 0 for Release June IS, lt? - AM Lead Industries is soelation t?0 Lexington Avenue New York 17, U. I. The Shifting Scene In Lead* Byi Robert Lindley Ziegfeld, Secretary Lead Industries Association New York, N. Y. After two years of record-breaking lead prices, we have Just passed through three months of the most precipitous price drop In history. Looking back, the forces which caused these movements are always easy to understand. The end of the war left the country with a terrific demand for load products Since the piblic had been unable to buy many of tho things they needed and wanted. Huge consuaption of lead in the years following the war finally caught up with this backlog all along the line and when dealers* and manufacturers' shelves were filled with lead products ultimate consumption dropped back to normal and buying of the raw material, pig lead, virtually stopped. As these inventories of lead products are worked off, lead manufacturers are bound to * Address before Idaho Lining Association, Sun Valley, IdaJo, June It, 1910. 'j i wni.we i 'mw Ie ih mh i in iuw!i".-n! .mu ' h i iw is w mii ii iij.iLjniijai.j j i pyw i|'* ' vegmww^wfwvgwmoe N 1781 ^ Iff 10jljLlMJW.il. ! **a -' -1------ - ftl--,!^" - - -^- -*~- eT *aH&iiwaimkiMis%it . } reenter the narket, but probably with More iwwl buying than we hare had In the last three year*. For the first tine In several nonth* manufacturers' stocks of pig lead showed a rather substantial drop on May 1, according to Lead Industries Association statistics* That is encouraging* Post-Mar Trend First, the abnornal demand coupled with the low production rate immediately following the war which resulted from postponed development work and a shortage of labor, caused the price to swing upward at an unprecedentedly rapid rate* Nhen lead reached its high of aid per lb., its price index, based on 1986 as 100, stood at 255.3* At the same tine tho Bureau of Labor Statistics price Index of all commodities only reached a high of 165 and even * farm products only reached 188, Obviously such a price for lead could not bold for long* It stimulated production and curtailed consumption* Now that the sky-rocket has core down and lead is back to 12# per lb., it price index is 188.5, while the index for all coresodltles is still at 156.5 and for farm products at 178.5* Just as the price on the upswing went to an extreme. It alio appears that on the downswing the sane thing has happened* As a matter of fact the price today is net much different froa shat it was at the end of the war if premiums paid at that time arc taken into consideration, 8toraeo Battori os Now, what st"*s do wo find in the wind today to ho.p u? guoss at the fhturv course of your l'ad outlctat There are some optfT Lt'e factors. In the first four months of this year only r. little over 3,000,000 roplacomant msmnp fi-urpr da 7Z<" -- "*---~ll - v---'^- L IA24880 W - ---------'-- -- ^------ - -----r ' - T " ' \ U 1 i '' i o i -3- storage batteries were manufactured, That was leas than half of the production of tho corresponding period last year* Tct battery maker* who hold their annual convention just a few weeks ago still expect to produce sono 17,000,000 or 18,000,000 batteries this year as against about ZL,000,000 last year and their optimism nay bo warranted frost the fact that there arc over ti0,000,000 cars on the road. The average life of a battery is less than two years, thus, if tho battery industry is right it will have to produce in the last six aontha of this year soate 18,000,000 battorlos, which would closely approximate last year's rato. In passir^ it is interesting to note that the weight of lead per battery has been increasing in the last few yoars and has risen frow 22 or 23 lb, to about 27 3b* Tetraethyl lead Another optlr.iStic note is supplied by the tetraethyl lead industry which has grown from nothing a little over 2D years ago to a lead consunptloa of about 80,000 tons last year. Two things are contributing to its further growth, wore cars and higher compression engines. Several of the oil coapard.es have stepped up their octane ratings in recent norths and the autonobile nanofaeturera are just waiting for better gasoline further to increase the power of their engines. That Mane nore tetraethyl lead. Also, there a~e soee 10,000,000 oore cars on tho road today than at tho end of the war. That weans wore gasoline and wore lend. So tho indications aro for continuing increases in thu use of lead for tetraethyl lead, Tbward that end the tetr'ethyl load industry is increasing its productive capacity. So.v' of the k u capacity will bo in operation as early as Au ust or Septrebur of this y r r:. 1 >vc next year, Estiaotos hnvo bocn undo by ths best inforood peopl* that uss o'* l jf Mlhyl lead nay nore than doubla in the next five years. 1 'HVim !>wwit urn ! WWWWSpil www^WWWIIJUW.lWI.SCTWWWiWWWe^fWOO^WWiai I-WM M, v` ' 7"  u^mM^f fie wmp>"* awe**---- LIA 2 A 88 1 if*" :/'; ` Wur^-**-r'-i- -; -- '*--'"i. *- - ~`- -- ---- - *-~-:-- --^--w liifjWW, .m**- ...... . -LLesd Sheathed Cabin In mother big vie of lead there Is a further ray of tunahlne* The cable Industry, while It Is not using load at quite the rate It did lest year, la likely to continue on a fairly even keel* There la even some possibility of improvement. Curing the severe lead shortage and period of high prices a substantial amount of cable sheathed with sub stitutes for lead was manufactured, The lower lead price may Influence some swing back to lead as these substitutes are (till generally considered to have certain drawbacks In comparison with lead for cable sheathing. Paint In the paint and construction fields, two other Important outlets for lead, the outlook is sore clouded. In paint the consumption of lead has probably suffered more as - result of the high price and shortage than In any other lead consuming product cr Industry, Tho paint business is highly competitive end even rt Dorsal prices load is the most expensive common pipaent used by print manufreturere. So quality has been sacrificed by reducing the load content of house prints ns auch as possible. Lower lead prices ay stop this trend or evm reverse it in view of the recognised inprovcBont in quality that load provides, but it Is too soon to tell Just what the net result will be* In the c-.se of red load prints fer iron and stool the pieturo is Boro cheerful. Substitute plpsents became quite well entrenched durlr^ the wax in cortrln quarters. There are now definite indications of n lack of cociplcto satisfaction with the substitutes. At ths same tino new rod load formulations have boon developed to moot tho apodal requirements exacted of today's industrial paints, and red lead Is Baking a stmng bid to rug-in substantial lost narkpts. I am proud that ruch of this is . jiw mw r* .jt- *`4f 'ifm iifgain mm'imiff Jim. LIA24 88 2 >._*-..v_ t m^:.,- -------------- \) ----- - --.W-- -' *-- '-"* --- * -- o'1- sttrlbutabls to the research and educational work of the Rod lead Technical Cconittee of the Lead Industries Association* Construction In building construction where load is used snlnly for water distribution and plus&ing, the rocent high prices gare great impetus to efforts of producers of coopctitlTo natorials to substitute their natcrlals for lead* They here r-idc soac progress, but again through the efforts of the Le*d Industries Association in large treasure, we hare nannged to hold on to rest of our business* Hew nuch longer we c-uld hare held out against these high prices is problematical but the lower lead prices should rdlcrc the pressure to sane extent* Bowerer, t-nodiatc trends in lead consumption N In building construction rill depend Tory largaly on the trend of construction itself, which is expected to be senevhat lower than 1-st year's record, but ncrcrthclcss at a relatively high rate* In chesdc.al construction, where lead is employed to fabricate eorrosian resistant cquipntsrt, there is no d-ubt that considerable ernstructlrn is being held in abeyance until costs *nd business generally shew signs : f st-tillring. Lrwer price* far lead should help to sone extent conpetitirrly* Tho foregoing uses of lead an which 1 hare consented in scoo detail *ee-aint for Sb*ut three-quarters cf *11 lead censunptinn# Cn then, to a. largo extent, depends the lead narkct* There arc, of course, nany things otrut the narkets for these products over which wo hare 1 lttlo control and general business conditions hare a profound influcneo on than* Tot there is *lso nuch th*t c~n bo dine to stlmlate the use of lead products* Sme of this we arc doing and h>wo boon if'ing for ye*rs* There is still ich nore that con 'rvd should be dene* ** ii ...i jin' i <i ygpa-'jgja* i>m w' Mpw.uw.im gin J4JHJMHtW|iWg w* w iu m' uimijf jpl fr h w mw w> m *i.' *p m "j! a&3 a 1^ odAU&^iCdf i mramniMM i irr 0 4 To stirulato the nnrkct for lead products la only part of tho battle for prosperous lndiatry, although it la night/ lnportant port. Z have elaborated on the principal uaoa of lend becroao that phnao la acre rerrte free yu na producers of tho raw nstorinl* Stoelcplllng OoTemnont stockpiling In tho post /oar baa taken a plaeo of prardncncc In the load picture th't nakca It comparable with none of the nJ->r uses of load* F->r Instance In the current fiscal year which ends this nr nth, the GoVermont has stockpiled an anour.t rf lead roughly equal to the e wisunptlcn of load In tetraethyl* It has, therefore, boerne aonething of n.aj-r liaprrtanco to you* Last week lead producers net with tho Uunltlons Board on the stockpile question, Thilc to ry knrwlodgc no Indication was given of the anount to be purchased In the new fiscal year starting Ally 1, I an Confident that purchases will bo slsoablc and will be well In excess of this year's purchases* Taxation Thcr: are eth'-r angles uhich rust bo pursued but they ere fTilll.ar ta y >u and need no repetition on ray part, there is Just ooc I w-uld like ta emphasise because Its aceonpllshncnt requires the education of the (Werment and the public to the peculiar pr-bl-ns of the nlnlng Industry* It Is taxation* We rust all waric together for n nir- realistic attitude toward taxation* The Investment of risk capit'l In r.lnlng rust be encouraged by n'klng It possible to realise r -turns errv naur-t- with the risk. It nust also be recognised that the risk in r.lnlng V day, r.s n- at surface deposits have b*sn discovered end wrked cut. Is greater endthat exploration and develop* wen costs are higher, which calls for a wore sympathetic attitude toward taxation than has ever been accorded the wining Industry* ay1 jw1. i .iirniu 'i ieo