Document rerQp3qO9KVGxj0JJjyj8pGq7

-*- U*4U arc..? j U-p UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY V*. WASHINGTON, D.C. S04S0 m i bbj MEMORANDUM SUBJECT: Analysis of NHANES XI Data to Determine The Relationship Between Gasoline Lead and Blood Lead FROM: Joel Schwarts Office of Policy Analysis TO: David Weil ECAO This paper discusses our attempts to quantify the relationship between gasoline lead and blood lead. That this relationship exists has been settled by the lead isotope experiment in Italy, which indicates that about 8ug/dl of blood lead is due to gasoline in the Turin area. We have attempted to use statistical tech niques to investigate this relationship in the United States both because we needed such knowledge to assess the gasoline lead regu lations (they were recently tightened), and to assess the approxi mate magnitude of the contribution of air lead emissions to blood lead via secondary pathways. Preliminary assessments were made by regressing local SMSA gasoline lead usuage in Chicago, New York, and Louisville against the results of the lead screening program in those locations. While 450,000 children were screened in New York, 880,000 in Chicago, and over 10,000 in Louisville, these children were not a random sample of the population. Although the sampling rates of 20% per year for black preschool children indicates the bias is TEH 0533080 N33870 -2- not great, industry hits objected to the drawing of any inferences from this data. Therefore, we began to analyze the NHANES II data as Soon as a public tape became available. ^ Hypothesis Testing Since we had evidence that gasoline lead is a major causal variable, we engaged in hypothesis testing to determine if inclu sion of other factors could lead us to reject that hypothesis. NCHS had already published material suggesting what demographic data was significant. In addition, we gathered data from FDA on food lead, and discussed in the December 1982 ICF report our reasons for rejecting paint lead as a source of misspeciffeation error. We used monthly lead in gasoline sales as an independent variable and individual blood lead as the dependent variable. It is important to note that since NHANES stands were usually in a given location during two months, this formulation allows us to look at variations in blood lead with time at a single site, as well as between sites. We first examined a large model with all major demographic variables, some of their interactions among themselves, some of their interactions with gasoline lead, and gasoline. After eliminating some insignificant variables (eg. kid x gas, inside center city x gas, etc.), we arrived at the models 1 and 2 from our December report. In both models gasoline lead explained a large share of blood lead. TEH 0533081 DUP050034351 -3As we have noted, before, it is important to realise that time is not a causal determinant of blood lead. Unlike processes such as aging, cardiovascular disease, etc., time has no direcV relation ship to blood lead through Inherent entropic processes. Indeed, if we focus on the same age group over time, the only relationship between blood lead and time can be through a direct causal vari able. The only known causal variable that decreased significantly over this four year period was gasoline lead. Therefore, time is included not as an explanatory variable, but as a further test to make sure gasoline lead had a strong enough relationship that it would remain significant even if time was a competing variable. in Table 3 and 4, the insignificant variables are dropped. The gasoline lead coefficient is stable, and its significance increases. Table 4a is a similar run, but has only one month lagged gasoline. It is included to facilitate comparison with other runs we include in this paper that used only one gasoline variable to test hypotheses. Note that even after surregr accounts for the design effect, the F statistic on gasoline when only one gasoline coefficient is included is 116.1. Without including time, mean NHANES gasoline lead accounted for 57% of mean NHANES blood lead, or 8 ug/dl. With time included, gasoline lead still accounted for 43% of blood lead, or 6 ug/dl. The Ethyl Corporation suggested that we test the individual cities where the sampling was performed to see if characteristics of these sites caused the down trend in blood lead, rather than gasoline. Table $ shows the results with dummy variables for all the sites with population over 100,000, and one for the remaining TEH 0533082 DUP050034352 TABLE RESULTS FROM SURREGR: WHITES Hypothesis Testing Results Mode) Number 1 Dependent Variable; Lead 32 Denominator Degrees of Freedom Independent Effect Coefficient F Value Degrees of Freedom Probability INTERCEPT TEEN TEENMALE KID ADLTMALE MALE RURAL SMALL INCOME! INC0ME2 VINTER SPRING FALL NGASPB NGASPB(-1) 6.55 -1.06 -.65 1.51 3.06 4.34 .67 -1.29 -.80 1.14 .54 -.18 -.44 -.07 136 4.92 8.47 19.79 92.58 177.66 5.17 12.08 5.94 14.89 .13.15 . (fo.13 T H 1,64 1 ffn.n? |j>. 1.18 5.34 1 0.0337 1 0.0065 1 0.0001 1 0.0000 1 0.0000 1 0.0299 1 1 0.0015 1 0.0205 1 0.0005 1 0.0010 1 0.7167 1 0.2100 1 0.8765 1 0.2850 1 0.0274 TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL 101.36 15 Mode) Number 2 Dependent Variable: Lead 32 Denominator Degrees of Freedom 0.0000 Independent Effect Coefficient F Value Degrees of Freedom Probability INTERCEPT ITIMEI 't e eIt TEENMALE KID ADULTMALE MALE RURAL SMALL INCOME1 INCOME2 NGASPB NGASPB(-1) 5.73 -.88 -.64 1.52 3.07 4.34 .66 -1.30 -.85 1.12 .54 f1.12 '^ TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL 4.40 8.29 18.69 94.28 173.69 4.92 11.56 6.52 13.76 12.98 1.14 7.22 130.97 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 0.0438 0.0070 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0338 0.0018 0.0157 0.0008 0.0011 0.2941 0.0113 -0.0000 TEH 0533083 ICF Incorporated DUP050034353 -*9*m*> vC.ir#**'.'*. r.*jarti*3hex-r -33\ TABLE 5 (Continued) Model Number 3 Dependent Variable: Lead 32 Denominator Degrees of Freedom Independent Effect Coefficient F Value Degrees of Freedc-r Probability INTERCEPT TIME TEEN TEENMALE KID KIDTIME ADLTMALE MALE RURAL SMALL INCOME1 INC0ME2 NGASPB NGASPB(-l) 5.74 -.85 -.64 1.52 3.06 -.71 4.35 .66 -1.30 -.65 1.12 .54 .39" 1.12 1 TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL u< 4.04 8.25 18. SB 112.29 2.74 176.94 5.02 11.63 6.55 13.69 12.96 1.13 * 128.82 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 Mode) Number 4 Dependent Variable: Lead 32 Denominator Degrees of Freedom Independent Effect Coefficient F Value Degrees of Freedom 0.0530 0.0072 0.0001 0,0000 0.1076 0.0000 f .0322 0.0018 C.0154 C.0008 0.0011 0.2949 0.0115 0.0000 Probability INTERCEPT TEEN TEENMALE KID a d l t ma l e MALE RURAL SMALL INCOME1 INCOME! NGASPB NGASPB(-1) TEST FOR OVERAL MODEL 3.74 -.63 1.54 3.11 4.35 .66 -1.45 -1.00 1.21 .59 .74 1.25 1.71 8.04 19.20 93.94 169.23 4.74 14.91 7.74 16,50 16.14 4.54 9,17 168.26 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 0.0079 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0369 0.0005 0.0090 0.0003 0.0003 0.04)0 0.0046 0.0000 TEH 0533084 DUP050034354 Tat/c. t}j 0 % KNOWHATORIIWEES OF FKEEDW CCEPENDEK7 EFFECT F VALUE 8EGREE3 OF FREDQK PROBABILITY LEAD TEST FOR OVERALL HKS. 135.80 OlNDEFEtCCNT EFFECTS i. 10 0.9000 7EEK TEESttLE 7.82 18.25 KID 93.63 ADLTMfllE MALE 163.23 4.75 RURAL 15.13 SHALL 7.13 MCSHEJ 16.72 INCOE2 17.14 FS! ih s p c w e ms t es t is 116.10 r es u l t j5 Y&EL Hi?SSR 1 &E7A WU FCR CErECEtf EFFECT 1 0.0087 1 0.0002 1 0.0000 1 0.0050 1 0.0363 1 0.0005 1 0.0111 1 o.oosc 1 0.0052 1 0.0500 LEAD IKTER'R'T TEE!.' TEEtfttLE HI AH.TMALE RALE -KLS4AL WALL ncssi JKC0HS2 m 3.923? -.621134 J.S28S7 3.152S4 4.34755 0.47276? -IMPS -.937531 1.23522 0.60163c: i. OS'c R-L K 88UAREI883R3 u* IKTERCt T T5K TEEKMA-E *JS AItTRALE H% RURAL STALL JCCtEi IKT^ST Fr-i 0.45;5*2 -,0ri4Ci ,C49m$ *,128?. -.C04&14 0.127971 -. 12*95? . <>369?3B .Oil 3359 0. m& -.1HC18 .5H74SE- ,CE?436 .0610231 0.115753 ,o?rr7" >oc?s5e. -.oases v s s il -.c^ -.o*?24: mx?< ,eo?3356 ..oa&s?: -.0123 0.1*2: -.S2c.?:s *<.0252.0129101 -.0:1573 .mm -.?wi5j (-.mat "?.0;C2 i.s-54 o.o^277 .mo w ** .0:25374 c.fE-r-i .cs; .o ;t ;?:a -.MCI* .viCs262 4.3E-04 7.1E-04 .&&& -.00173? -.015233 -.01167* ,53649:* ,*C14c5 .011444? .0204145 .621476? .0181765 .$TC5 '.012?' 7 >.0120?: -.05**4$ .{?KV^ .CSSXt? TEH 053308$ DUP050034355 .e * *''*'*** W*<s.* SSE 3672474623 r BFE 8543 USE 453252.1 > PAKMOER IF ESTIMATE STANDARD ERROR *r<-- i ib wati i In r< * an F RATIO rsts>F R-SOUWE 59.92 0.0001 0.2820 T RATIO PR0B7JTI 1 3.497781 1 3.007016 1 -0.669035 1 1.454332 i 4.270143 l -0.5S5S55 i 0.716765 i 1.270774 i 0.675544 l 1.825827 i -1.601776 i -0.156853 i -0.510507 i 2.756296 l 2.369833 j -0.046137 i -1.421702 i -0.846575 i -0.391943 i -1.114003 i 0.474797 i -0.799606. i 1.245355 l 0.173703 i -1.32025J l 1.266737 l 1.11143? i -2.265575 l 1.365.123 l -0.493153 i -0.197637 i 0.941245 i 0.579361 i -1.212687 j 3.715663 i 3.035599' i 0.520650 i 1.478956 i 0.577957 i 0.551663 i 0.651660 i -0.885652 i -0.256055 i -0.503421 i 0.819735 i 0.53205? i -0.6.52441 l 2.665472 l 0,032455 i 0.4X105 i 2.571917 i -0.970167 l -0.125262 l 0.505905 i 0.727573 l -1.253702 0.452936 . 7.7225 0.357316 8.6355 0.186336 0.535376 0.496467 -3.5514 2.7165 1.5666 0.139134 0.482469 0.174542 -4.2107 1.4856 7.2641 0.116256 0.104924 0.377478 5.8451 17.4014 -4,2434 0.510952 -0.3070 0.479102 0.466005 -1,0656 5,6855 0.465357 0.475736 0.466453 4,8824 -0,0962 -3,0479 0.466606 0.448185 0.456-567 -1.7319 -0,8745 -2,4377 0.356*447 1,3548 0.437764 0.448538 -1,8266 2.7854 0.515417 0.454-K4 0.475574 0.3370 -2.9080 2.7057 0,402666 0.425742 0.436417 2.7585 -5.36-84 3.1735 0.396467 0.433556 0.41757J -1.2564 -0.4083 2.2541 0.564443 0.553122 0.450766 1.0273 -2.1524 6.2434 0.56069? 0.436601 5.5019 1.06-56 0.466766 0.506578 3.0383 1.1410 0.430572 0.483606 2.3031 1.4156 0.434387 0.435258 0.435511 -2.0X7 -0.5884 -1.1434 0.427724 1.5165 0.518510 0.497691 1.7576 -1.3109 0.456-551 0.46-7020 0.872022 5.6333 0.1766 0.4844 0.417332 0.413336 0.451646 6.1628 -2.3469 -0.2543 0.445511 0.378829 0.443310 1.1255 1.9074 -2.6280 0.0001 0.0001 0.0004 0.0066 0.0001 0.0001 0.1374 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.7589 0.2867 0.0001 0.0001 0.9234 0.0023 0.0833 0.3819 0.0148 0.1755 0.0678 0.0054 0.7361 0,0036 0,0068 0.0053 0.6001 0.0015 0.2090 0.6830 0.0242 0.3043 0.0284 0.0001 0.0001 0.2643 0.0024 0.2539 0.0213 0.1569 0.0415 0,5563 0.2521 0.0553 0.0723 0.1899 0.0001 0.8598 0.6-231 0.0001 0,0150 0.7989 0.2604 0.056-5 0.0047 , rr, t t m ar* - ;*-* Wiites, with city tunnies % Mean Blood lead Bcolained fcr' Gasoline 7.30 ug/dl y dual nt of r- 31 tphic ing. Iiy as * St be TEH 053308 DUP050034356  'HOKl : ' HODEl OI HEIGHTS WEIGHT SEP WR: LEAD :.A.j ... ---------fjfag~~ SFE 1543 BSE 453674.7 Sra^ivl^iC^SMJ PRfflOF JH50UARE 59.74 0.0001 0.2814 . VIABLE PARAMETER STANDARD OF ESTIMATE ERROR T RATIO pr o b>:t s INTERCEPT KID TEEK TEEWKLE ADL7MAIE RURAL HALE Dcoei BC0E2 FBNATl GCITY2 bc it ys GCITY4 CCITY5 0C-ITY6 BCITY7 6CITD cm*? OCJTYIC k it y ii iscnvir BCITY1S CCJTV15 8CJTY14 ccim? KJ?Y18 CCITVi? k :t v :o CCI7Y21 . &ITY22 DCITY23 GCITV24 g c it y^ -CC3TVS& GCITY27 KITY2S KTTY2? KITY30 ccnvsj .c c it y s s c c it yss DC27Y34 KTTV35 COTY36CCI7YS7 (KITy s s KITY39 K1TV40 GCI7V4J 5C7TV42 CCITV43 GC1TV44 DCI7V45 K3TY46 CC1TY47 GCJTV48 KITY45 t 3.566139 0.450296 I 3.037335 0.357438 1 -0.670635 0.188478 1 1.459524 0.535568 1 4.273781 0.498674 1 -0.626727 0.139019 1 0.715666 0.482690 1 1.254777 0.17498? 1 0.673179 0.116286 1 1.825911 0.105147 1 -0.00437672 0.0009907555 1 -0.00C54402 0.00127390? 1 -0.00114548 0.0009497383 i 0.005164469 0.0009456107 1 0.004474451 0.000950)301 I -0.000286966 0,001246523 1 "0.00386706 0.001218957 1 -0.00172173 0.0009251465 I HD. 00051*606 0.0009570653 I -0.00262243 0.000974829 I 0.0009318327 0,0007557367 1 -0.0C169102 0.0008631215 1 0.002953844 0.001164361 1 0.0002347331 0.001341235 1 -0.0033675 0.00111651 1 0.002c!2646 0.001277136. 1 0.00271887 0.001076825 1 -0.00533411 0.001062012 i 0.0030756.77 0.001018465 i -0.00108302 0.000765444! 1 -0.0004S9SI3 0.0009218497 1 0.001798618 0.0008434144 1 0,000350422? 0.00123065 1 -0.00239-352 0.001246198 1 0.007583cS7 0.0009433331 1 0.006811544 0.061259608 1 0.0009576675 0.001030911 1 0.003225387 0.001108293 1 0.000974132 0.0009788356 1 0.002249129 0.00103011 1 0.(<01174707 0.00106.2621 1 -0.00188936. 0.0006765461 1 -0.00C72278 0.06)09842864 1 -0.0025:761 0.002016537 1 0.002257229 0.001265641 1 0.00203223? 0.001217475 1 -O.WJiSM (1,001039576 1. 0.004*35593 0.000874944? 1 .00007215277 0.001117145 1 0.001523407 0.003762857 1 0.006023215 0.001010315 1 -0.W76.56 0.067075392 1 -0.000357673 0.001139936 1 0.00116391 0.001672823 1 0.001857821 0.001061702 1 -0.00340895 0.001173403 1 0.003267762 0.001187023 .. 7-9195 *' 1.6374 -3.9582 2.7258 0.5703 -4.5082 1.4827 7.1706 S.7890 17.3653 -4.4176 -0.4270 -1.2061 5.4615 4.7093 -0.2301 -3.1724 -1.8610 -1.0288 -2.6901 1,2992 -1.9592 2.5369 0.2123 -3.0161 2.2023 2.5249 -5.4934 3.0199 -1.414? -0.5313 2.1325 0.6910 -2.3222 6.0395 5.4077 0.9290 2.9102 0.9951 2.1834 1.1055 -2.1555 -0.7343 -1.2832 1.7850 1.6692 -1.5633 5.6982 0.06-46 0.404? 5.9716 -2.4698 -0.3155 1.0998 1.749? -2.9052 2.752? 0.0001 0.0001 0.0004 0.0064 0.0001 0.0001 0.1382 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.6694 0.2278 0.0001 0.0001 0.8180 0.0015 0.0628 0.3036 0,0072 0.1939 0.0601 0.0112 0.8319 0.0026 0.0277 0.0116 0.0001 0.0025 0.1571 0.5952 0.0330 0.4896 0.0202 0.0001 0.0001 0.3529 0.00360.3197 0.0290 0.2690 0.0312 0.46-26: 8.1995 0.0743 0.0953 0.1163 0.0001 0.9465 0.6-856 . 0.0001 0.0)35 0,7524 0.2714 0.0802 0.0037 0.005? thites, with city fay gas interactions % Mean Blood lead Explained fay Gasoline * 7.30 ug/dl TEH 0533087 DUP050034357 *+ - -5- Since the current month's gasoline lead would have on average only 15 days to affect blo&d lead levels* one would expect it* to have a significant contribution* but a smaller one. by contrast* the previous month's gasoline lead represents emissions an average 15-45 days prior to examination. We would expect this to be more significant* with a noticeably higher coefficient* One would expect gasoline sold* on average 45-75 days previously (i.e. two month lagged gasoline) to be less significant and of lower magni tude than current month gasoline. By contrast* if gasoline sales were merely a proxy for time* all three months should be about equally good* since t* t-1* and t-2 (where t is the month since commencing the survey) equally represent the passage of time. In fact* the results shown on Table 7 agree with our intui tion based on the physical mechanisms. It does not appear to be consistent with the view that the gasoline coefficient is mostly due to some inexplicable time trend. Our use of the Department of Energy's monthly sales data for leaded and unleaded gasoline allows us to examine this lag struc ture. The predominant cause of monthly changes in gasoline lead emissions is changes in sales volume. Our data captures both this effect and changes in the leaded-unleaded mix. The only factor that we do not have monthly is the lead content of gaso line* which refiners report quarterly. As Table 8 indicates* however* this changed little over most of the period. Thus our gasoline variable does represent, as best as possible* the current month's emissions of gasoline lead* TEH 0533088 DU P050034358 Whites - Unconstrained lag Structure without line MODEL NUMBER 4 OBc Th v al u es f o r d epen d en t ef f ec t . LEAD INiERCFT TEEN 7EEMHLE KID ASLDttX HALE WL WLL UC8IC1 INC9C2 PBNAT ttl 3.29218 -.434539 1.531 3.09298 4.35144 0.468183 -1.39423 -.909059 1.21175 0.586395 0.768547 0.87 2 0.440603 In.TDTncSIS TESTING RESULTS CKGIEL IMEER 4 C 32 DENOMINATOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM vSErDuSkT EFFECT F VALUE LEAD TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL OIKDeFENDENT EFFECTS 157.09 TEEN TEEfflALE MV ADL7XALE KALE KSFffAiu.Li. INCC4E1 iieae FBMAT FBI Ffi 8.10 19.17 91.83 167.81 4.76 13.94 6.60 16.63 15.96 4.94 4.78 2.04 DEGREES OF FREEDOM PROBABILITY 12 0.0000 1 0.0077 1 0.0001 1 0.0000 1 0.0000 1 0.0365 1 0.0007 1 0.0150 1 O.CCC3 1 0.0004 1 0.0334 1 0.0362 1 0.1634A Ffean Blood lead Explained By Gasoline * 8.33 ug/dl TEH 0533089 DUP050034359 "vel 7ni7*Ce**' ** * <`l-- Wfl* I JM wiv* - Whites " Bkxxaristrained lag structure with Time X lGfi.UffiER 9 (SETA VALUES FOR SEFDSEN7 EFFECT LEAD WTII* TEB TEEMttLEWD WLTMSLE HfiLE RURAL WU IKOC1 IMCCC2 FBNAT FBI F32 5.3iSi -.848538 -.644657 1.31085 S.0604o 4.34317 0.665563 2.26267 -.785147 1.2247? 0.538707 0.423638 0,848557 0.322934 Itf.TCTncSiS 7ESTIW RESULTS OMKcL NL.TBEK 3 X DEWMMSTOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM 0Ic?EvEV7 EFFECT F VALUE DEGREES OF FREEDOM LEAD TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL 227.5? OIwtriJCENT EFFECTS 13 TIME tci.fi TEBffttLE KID ATL7HALE MALE RURAL STALL :ucsgi IRCCME2 r&mi res FEE 4.29 8.32 18.75 ?3.05 172.33 4.72 21.22 5.63 13,75 12,85 1.37 4.82 2.07 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 i I i 0.0000 0.0514 0.0070 0,0092 0.0000 0.0009 0.0337 0.0021 0.0239 0.0007 0.0011 vi4w 0.0356 0,3070; Mean Blood lead explained by Gasoline - 6.38 ug/dl TEH 0533090 DUP050034360 talcing Into account the "pipeline" effect mentioned by Dupont* To the extent that the use of quarterly grains per gallon distorts the data* it should tend to obscure the lag structure* The fact that the lag structure remains apparent even when noise is injected into the explanatory variable is reassuring. This examination of the lag structure and our understanding of the residence time of lead in the blood suggests that a distri buted lag best explains the relationship between gasoline lead and blood lead* We have chosen a distributed lag model in which the current month's gasoline lead variable has an unconstrained estimated coefficient, a weighted average lagged gasoline lead variable was created using the weighting PBLAG .571PB1 4 .286PB2 4 .143PB3 where the weights go down by one half each month and sum to unity to allow comparison with other gasoline lead estimated coefficients* Decay rates other than 1/2 could have been chosen* but 1/2 was used because (as mentioned above) the half-life of lead in the blood could be about one month* and because when we tested 3 free gasoline lead coefficients PB2 was approximately 1/2 of PB1. The results of using this lagged gasoline exposure variable are shown in tables 10 and 11* Once again gasoline lead is very significant* and accounts for 60 % of blood lead* or 8.46 ug/dl* Subgroup Analysis in addition to our attempts to control for changes in demo graphic subgroup representation during the NHANES period by using dummy variables and interaction terms, we have also done separate TEH 0533091 DUP050034361 Year 1976 I Quarter 1976 II Quarter 1976 III Quarter 1976 IV Quarter 1977 I Quarter 1977 II Quarter 1977 III Quarter 1977 IV Quarter 1978 I Quarter 1978 II Quarter 1978 III Quarter 1978 IV Quarter 1979 I Quarter 1979 II Quarter 1979 III Quarter 1979 IV Quarter 1980 I Quarter Table 8 Grams Per leaded Gallon 2.01 2.18 2.22 1.92 1.92 2.17 2.23 1.91 1.72. 1.96 2.24 2.09 2.07 2.08 2.23 1.40 1.33 TH 0533092 DUP050034362 tfoites - Distributed! lag without H*** SX5EL KUKEER 2 08E7A VALUES FOR SEFOCENT EFFECT LEAD INTER#I SEEN 7EEM1ALE KID fl&LTMALE HALE RURAL MU 1MXKE1 INCOC2 HUBER ffMNQ FAU. 0A3LAG 2.492S4 -0.43553 1.4972 3.05422 4.33234 0.480992-1.34423-.841703 1.16971 0.573274 0.385193 0.168108 -.099651 1.44537 F8NAT - Mean Blood Lead Explained by Gasoline * 8.97 ug/dl iMC'lEL KUfiSER 4 vSETA VALUES FOR SEFEiCENT EFFECT LEAD INTER#! TEEM 7EES1U KID AU-TKAtf MALE RURAL SHALL WCKEi UK*2 GA3LAG FEXA7 3.1Kil -.435701 1.52914 3.0588$ 4.35609 0.444348 -1.39545 -.900924 1.20722 0.584708 1.75494 0.859432 Mean Blood lead Explained By Gasoline = 8.46 ug/dl TEH 0533093 DUP050034363 OKOOEL KiMeER 2 0 32 SENSftiATOR DEGREES CF FREEDOM OKFEKENT EFFECT. F WLUE DEGREES OF FREEDOM PROBABILITY LEAL TEST FDR OVERALL MODEL 111.49 G!hjcrcKuT EFFECTS 14 0.0000 TEES TEEWiALE KID ADLTMALE twi RURAL SMALL INCOME! INCOMES WINTER SFRING FmI UHXJftU'** FBNAT 8.21 19.46 92.03 171.40 5.15 11.92 4.13 16.49 15.73 0.62 0.16 0.04 6.41 3.35 1 0.0073 1 0.0001 1 0.0000 1 0.0000 1 0.0302 1 0.0016 1 0.0166 1 0.0003 1 0.0004 1 0.3714 1 0.6705 1 0.6360 1 0.0164 1 0.0765 lHVFDTHcSIS TESTING RESULTS MODEL WIHSE?: 4 0 32 DENOMINATOR DEGREES GF FREEDOM CKFEKDEWT EFFECT F VALUE DEGREES OF FREEDOM PROBABILITY LEAD " . -TEST FDR OVERALL MODEL 156.31 r.:,Mt?r4iK7 ef f ec t s TEEN IEEW1ALE KID AKJKALE MALE JS.RAL SMALL INOatl ISC0ME2 UnJLFV FcKAT 8.14 19.49 92.69 166.67 4.76 13.79 6.19 16.62 16.13 8.36 7.95 m^__ 11 0.0000 1 0.0075 1 0.0001 1 0.0000 1 0.0000 1 0.056? 1 0.0008 1 1 MC* .iv0my1VvSlAd3 1 0.0003 1 0.0066 1 0,0123 TEH 0533094 DUP050034364  -- *-* y'fc " r.va Whites- Distributed Lag with Zina *.* * . < IH05S. ttfCES 1 0EE7A VALUES FOR DEPENDENT EFFECT LEAD ISTSCfT TIME TEEN TEEWl E KID 0CL7HALE HALE %KL SHALL JK3C1 IMCCS2 WKTER SPEINS FALL 4,50704 -.747375 -.550935 1.51012 3.0457$ 4.3439 0.570203 -1.27173 -.77237$ 1.1352 0.537423 -.214554 -.354305 -0.19357 GASLA5 FStf.7 0.353971 0.513474 Mean Blood Lead Explained By Gasoline * 5.90 ug/dl iHS&fcSSEv 3 OrETA VALUES FOP DErENTENT EFFECT LEAS DTERCPT life TEEN TEritflALE KID AH7HALE HALE RURAL SHALL 1MK961 INC32 GASLAG FSNAT 5.1SJ51 -.3:5239 -.543225 1.50917 3.05505 4.3477 0.55255 -1.25455 -0.77495 1.12132 0.537475 1.034*$'0.553*4 Mean Blood lead Explained by Gasoline = 6.55 ug/dl TEH 0533095 DUP050034365  .. . ... IHrFOTffSIS 713TZND RESULTS 6H5DEL KJKScR 1 0 32 DENOMINATOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM C5EFESCEW7 EFFECT F MM KCREES 6F FREEDOM FR086IL1TV LEAD TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL OliCCFfNDB.7 EFFECTS 96.2? 13 0.6000 Tiff TEEN 7EEW1LE KID ADLTKALE 4.44 3.46 20.30 92.27 177.87 6.6430 6.6966 C.OOG1 6.0000 6.0000 MALE RURAL 5.18 11.32 S3ALL 5.47 io s i 14.61 :.vtoff2 13.18 jnTsR 8.18 SrF.ZNG 6.84 FALL 6.17 GASLAG FSSAT 3.15 1.17 lmFOTKESIS TE37TH3 RESULTS J 6.0297 I 6.0020 1 0.6257 1 8.6066 0.6616 1 0.6726 1 0.3636 1 0.6796 6.6655 1 6.2S32 IKVrCTrCSIS TESTING RESULTS CMOD& HUGER 3 0 32 XNGilllttTOR SEwEES OF FREES* OCErEKDEKT EFFECT f VALff DEGREES OF FREEST FROBASILITY LEAD TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL 124.91 OlrCEFEaiT EFFECTS Tiff TEEN TEEiOWl CIS AILTWiE KALE RURAL SKI INCuffl INC3ff2 GASLAG FENAT 3.83 8.32 19.66 93.28 173.11 4.91 11.07 5.33 13.91 12.94 8.06 2.38 12 6.0000 0.0592 6.0676 6.6601 6.0900 6.6090 0.033? 0.9022 0.9276 0.0007 6.0011 6.0194 0.1327 TEH 0533096 DUP050034366 regression Analyses on several subgroups* The Decembe%9r.*1982 ICF report contains separate runs for blacks and whites. In addition. Table 12 shows the results for urban groupings* Table 13 shows the regression results for males* Tables 14 shows the results for children* Running separate regressions for children and adults should avoid any bias due to changes in the number of children. Similarly, changes in urban representation and black representation will not bias the results. These are major groups about whose representa tion the Ethyl Corporation expressed concern* All of these show strong, similar relationships between gasoline lead and blood lead* These results are presented using SURREGR, so the estimated F statistics take account of the Survey design effect* The stability of the gasoline lead coefficient in all of these regres sions suggests a relationship that is large and strong enough to shine through any difficulties introduced by the NHANES survey. It specifically addresses Ethyl's concern that the changing proportion of children and urban residents biased the results. Dr. Firkle of CDC performed similar analyses using quar terly gasoline lead data (gas 1) and two different 6 monthly gas lead variables (gas 2 and gas 3). These results, in slightly dif ferent units, are included in Appendix II. They should ease Dr. Bradley's concern about controlling for subgroups as well* All of these regressions were run in SURREGR, In addition Appendix K of Dr. Pirkle's report to you shows similar regressions with time TEH 0533097 DUP050034367 "RESULTS FROM SLRKEGR: URBAN DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LEW 32 DENOMINATOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM 2KEPENDEBT VARTA&E c o ef f ic ient F VALLE DEGREES OF Fr eed o m FfiOSWIl! INTERCEPT TEEN TEEW1ALE KID ADLlWLE ivsi bl ack BCOE! INCOME; FSKA71 3.9558 -.*815 1.8243 4.3863 4.259S .67699 1,5389 1.33277 ,707861.8227 TEST FOR OVERALL MODEL 6.63 10.89 144.04 80.41 2.40 19.90 11.04 20.68 43.39 204.08 i 0.0061 l 0.0024 i 0.0000 i 0.0000 i 0.1312 l 0.0001 i 0.0022 l 0.0001 i 0.0000 9 0.0000 MMJ BLOCD IEMO EXPJ/INED BY GRSOLINC * 7, 29 ug/fll TEH 0533098 DUP050034368 RESULTS FROM SURREGR* HALE DEPENDENT VARIABLES LEW 32 DENOMINATOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM iMEEPENDEUrr VARIABLE COEFFICIENT F VALUE DEGREES OF 'FREEDOM FRC8ABJL1TY INTERCEPT TEEN KID SLACK RURAL SMALL INCQIEI INCOMES PBNATl 7.847 -3.41 -.7077 2.3801 -l.ew -.4587 1,808? .98425 2.6888 TEST FDR OVERALL MODEL 148.75 7.14 34.72 7.72 3.79 15.59 24.24 113.49 164.97 1 6.6000 t 6.0116 1 6.0000 t 6.0083 1 6.0545 1 6.0004 1 6.0000 1 0.0000 8 6.0000 V /**'-":&: `y*J -* ; MEAN BLOCK) IEAD EXPLAINED BY GASOLINE * 8.35 ug/dl TEH 0533099 DUP050034369 RESULTS FROM SURREGfi: CHILDREN EFENDENT VARIABLES LEAD 32 KKWNATOR JEGREES OF FREEZDl 1NDEFEHZEKT VARIABLE COEFFICIENT F VALLE KGREES OF ''FREEfeJK (PROBABILITY RiTEfiCEFT HALE sl acf : RURAL SHALL WC0HE1 INC0ME2 PBtiATl 4.2484 .57282 3.8099 -2.378 -.9318 3.8793 1.2882 1.8813 TEST FOR OVERALL BOOEL 2.96 36.35 8.93 1.19 34.57 16.45 19.30 40.83 1 0.0949 1 0.0090 i 0.0054 l 0.2832 i 0.0000 i 0.0003 i 0.0001 7 0.0000 HERN BIDCO LEAD EXPIAINEP BY a EOLINE m 7.52 ua/dl TEH 0533100 DUP050034370 *(, as veil as gasoline lead. -9* Gasoline lead is still highly signi ficant in these runs they are in Appendix 111 to the back of this paper. One or Two Stage Regression One major issue the panel faces in comparing our analysis with Ethyl's is the question of whether a onex stage or a two stage regression is appropriate. As Or. Draper has pointed out. when the first stage and second stage variables are orthogonal, the results will be the same. Since in this case the first and second stage variables are clearly not orthogonal the question of which approach to follow remains. A two stage regression procedure biases against significance in the second stage variables by over attributing variance to their collinear first stage variables. For this reason we have adopted a single stage multiple regression approach. Dr. Bradley indicates that he would have performed a single stage regression, and the use of main effects and interac tion terms, which is what we used in our analysis. Both Drs. Draper and Bradley remark that they would have preferred that the gasoline lead variable be regressed against the individual resid uals for the 10.000 people (as in our one-stage and two-stage regressions) rather than against 55 site average residuals as Ethyl used, the reduction of a 10,000 person sample to 55 data points significantly limits the analysis. We find several other difficulties with Ethyl's regression. The most important is their failure to use gasoline lead as a TEH 0533101 DUP050034371 10- variable in the second stage. Instead, they use population density and annual state-wide gasoline lead divided by^the area of the state. While in a world with constant gasoline usuage pop ulation density nay be a partial proxy for gasoline lead. one would be hard put to find cities where the 50% reduction in gaso line lead usuage over 1976-80 was matched by a SOI drop in popula tion density. This variable is inherently incapable of picking up either changes in unleaded gasoline share (18% to 47% over the period). or the regulatory induced drop in the concentration of lead in leaded gasoline (2.01 g/gal to 1.33 g/gal) over the period. As for annual gasoline lead per state divided by its area, the diversity in the size of states makes this a poor proxy as well. The areas of Arizona and Rhode Island do not adequately represent the relative exposure in Tuscon and Providence. More over. by using annual state lead emissions the Ethyl analysis automatically precludes an analysis relating monthly or seasonal changes in gasoline lead emissions to monthly or seasonal changes in blood lead, predudes any ability of gasoline lead to explain differences in blood lead between two sampling sites in the same state during the same year, and generally deadens the sensitivity of the analysis. Again, since the Ethly analysis also collapsed the residuals into a single value for each site, they eliminated the possibility of explaining month to month blood lead variation at a single site. Moreover, the Ethyl Corporation*s analysis only controls for age. race. sex. and income plus city identifiers. TEH 0533102 DUP050034372  -x .? r^jr*4'.'"'Vr &~/ 11 Our models also control for degree of urbanization, and cantor city or suburban residence in an SMSA. Finally, Ethyl.'does not indicate which of their 99 variables are insignificant. Based on our analysis of interaction terms and city dummies, many of the 99 variables they used in their first stage are insignificant. Leaving them in the first stage anyway downwardly biases the estimated coefficients in the second stage. To test our reasoning that these variables were inapt, we per formed a similar two stage regression. In the first stage we used the dummy variables previously shown to be significant, and the 49 site identifiers. This is almost exactly the approach of Ethyl's first stage. We then regressed gasoline lead against the resid uals in the second stage, using monthly national gasoline lead as our independent variable as before. The result is shown in Table 18. Even in the second stage regressions, gasoline lead has a t statistic of 13.4. The bias inherent in this two stage approach is illustrated in Table 19, where gasoline lead is in the first stage and the city variables in the second stage. Thus even the 2 stage approach, which can most accurately be viewed as a worst case torture test for the explanatory variable, demonstrates the strong relationship between gasoline lead and blood lead. We believe that the single stage multiple regression is the best approach to quantify that relationship. Bias Due to Subgroup Definitions Dr, Smith at the last meeting suggested that he Knows how one can manipulate analyses by choice of dummy variables to produce TEH 0533103 DUP050034373 4BH5 rL'ifcLyi T*V% IT m UEf- VAM LEAH use U paf aaet ep WAP1ARE VAFJ.AKE F fSTIAwTE LAI EL ,* 1H3EFCFF7 TfcE H 11 A*Lfc Ai-WAALE frUf-AL VAAlL 1HC-DPB J INCL^Ec' CITY* C.3IV si " cnv4 C1TY5 C l TVt cmr cms C l T vClTVIV cn - u UTVlc CUM 7 cmi* lIT VI5 ClTvlt C1TV17 CITY 13 L IT VI 9 L1T >3 0 C IT Vi J ClTVcc UlVci L J 7 *i c 4 WIVE* L1TVv U7\c? LIT ,rr l IT Vi L 11 * 3 v* , 11 1 10.9*L?18 1 o. i 33300 1 3. 03E341 1 1.107513 1 ' 3. t.-4fcfc-8 1 -1.31888-9 1 -0.595118 1 1.93*3799 i 0.98-4383 i *1.94599 l -0.83L3.83 i 1.3574*3:-: i 4 . 13*900 i 4,70t:;7y J u, 898180 i -1.887998 i 8, 187743 i 1 . 083048 I t*. 184333 i 3.8-89403 i 1 778e-4 l i. 98*4 377 l 0.c?935 1 y.i*44?7i i -0.8-8888 0 t -0.044 4*4 l 1.81 SC-47 i -3. 188 17 ( i 1.55-4890 l 0.40788-7 l 1.50718* l 3. 55855 i 1,8*78848 l -0. 8-58 8-5c* l 4.8--J 3?9 l 3. 844984 J 1.345391 l 3.003335 * > s s i-s .t i -- * ' ' ,iSxr%iisc.~. ""Sial 85.18439 STAHDAFIi tetu A-3PUA9E EfPD* 1 PAT ID 0.418*790 0.1&989t 0.173570 0.174335 0. 884*98 U. 3955c 8 0.4158 05 0.158973 O.lc1*58 U.4t 898* 0.711087 0.8-51*31 y. 598 *57 u.e-7tf*y4 0.488018 U.4*13*4 0.538844 y. 5-**o* 3 y.43fr5c4 0,34*419 y. 4;-c.4 (iC U.489305 V. 8 194 if 0.513851 I.I.44V047 U.fe-4-*7y 0.58-5*55 0.44378.f y.e-373 03 0.5 4 i-9I-3 0.58331c y. 3-7f9.r 0.8-74 0.8-894 19 0.8-43035 y.'.4 37M 0. 8-91 08-80.51443*. 88.8440 0.7011 18.9583 t. 35t-4 J t-. 3997 -3.0751 --1. 4C-8-7 11.55187,9111 " 3 . 8-138-0. 3c4e c.Ofeltf fc-. --4 ff` 7.oylc 0.8-145 --3.53084.1391 1.8*181 U.C&43 7.5903 4.0585 t-. 8*313 0.4510 0.4719 -1.5149 -- 0. Vt "c 3.3151 -4.89T9 c.4549 t.7539 8*. 5-t re- 8.1887 1.8935" -0.9335 7.3103 4. 38 3c 1.3081 5.548 * o?uu?<! U.3335 o, owi 0.4fc?>: M. OOol 0. 0001 y. u i.m.1 o.u&ii 0.1480 0, Ofitjl v.i'W'i u.0003 J.745 u. v:--4 0. vH`l o.uovi 0.5389 0. l>v99 y,yvoi u. 0*94 .-.? 5& y.oooi y, vo. i y. l y. c-5c y o. * 17 ij 0. 139r 0. r-4: y. y-:i 3 y. i-ovi U. U14 1 IJ.4 *1*. y. o. uovi y.v5*5 y. 3558 y . y-O'.'l 0. OOvl y. '.-"it y . . f - > 3 TEH 0533104 DUP050034374 _. 1___ _. .r^\'***.wrv**.^-*r*Fr*?s>**> 7- ' CITY33 1 1. 376343 VI LVlI^Z4/*.i 0.e66636 ;> T'. V* f-t '**. 7>., ' V# VVVi 7.7633 0.0730 6.1656 0.0666 cnv34 C1TY35 I 1.431563 0.46X6X1 X 0.344661 0.43414c. 3.3655 1.6456 0.0007 0.0517 ci me I -3.667*16 0.4304 54 -e.5E6 0. 0001 cms? cm;-& 1 - 0. 043473 1 X666764 U. 5t*6fce4 U.t6**45 --0, 07 63 6.7of4 0.636c 0. 0 Uc b tm36 cnr4f 1 6. J6707 0. 56 34c 1 1 5. Itte61 t'.4fV-: 3.7144 10. *37 3 0 . OoOc 0.0001 1 4Y%1 m 0. 16* 31 FFlI'bV. 5 HT 1 Met > 61 4* 1 *> 3 7/ 1 t n. . V K h*L ^ $1 0 F-ftFflMElEV &1J4WUAF1. VHt-JPHb wBieufc LHfEL IF E'iT|M67fc fcFFCF 1 6*7 ID.9 FFCrj ?7 J 117 Y41 I 0. 670636 V, 5c *5'6i.* l.*46c 0. o--1 cnv4c t J 7V4 U1V4J cnv4*j CJT.4r I -3.105637 X 6,466313 1 -1,04746 I 0.763167 1 1.4736 36 X.05*636 0.465705 0.3? 6706 0.4665"6 0.5 05 54? -6.6433 5.3t-45 -c.bc"f 1. c63V c'.i-ye" 0. 00r3 0. uu l 0. U0"c 0. Or 1.5 0. OU'-f *_ 1 7 Y4: t!7V4$. 1 0,565656 1 --1.516 Oft 0,3*0-50 0. 366365' 1.34 35 --3. tfe 33 0.1761 0, 0001 117^4* 1 iY- 7r 1 .1.46K5 16*31 FFII'F.* V. 44746b 3.6663 n m 1 $ 7 1 C ht 4, 166; 0.ool0 6 lifiL 0 oMDl-H : PLlfcLOl Sit 614331.7 F F61JD 160.60 Ffc 6:563 F*Di >F 0. utol Z'Ef ' Vf-: flE*I HiE 64.66603" f'-ifOHrfc 0. 0.6 Ot FfcillUH. V* V VH? 1 f-11 fc F6FfirE7EF 37 ]_i * ! *-'3 L fc 1*F ESIIHME fcf'Ft* 7 W1U F'F'.0.i - : 7 : - Lt-J-Ei i`-15t0 = f7 ! . Lim--* i 1 -4.11461c 1 0, 6^15^4 0. ;-l 0-4 5 0, O'" 6,63 c -13.64-: 13,44** 0. O', vl 0 . 0 >I TEH 0533105 DUP050034375 -_w- ~i ij. % tonne Ti/e /? o UMOI'EL* WDI'ELOl I'EF Vh F * V VHF198U VHf-lftlLE LftiEL L$m> I'F SSE .. &FE MSE pftFFiMETEfi ESTIMATE tto7;*s4.fc ess-o 5.696*96 878N1<HFI- EFPOF F 887 ID FFOI >F 8-SK'6Pfc 68t. 11 0.OM 01 0.68*9 7 F871D% F'F'Dt > j 7 * lfVTEFCEFT TEEH Kit MftLE ffl-L TUPLE F'UF'PL 3MH.L IHCDME 1 INCOME8 FENHT J I V87 t 0 H 1 3,367719 0, 3*1470 10.5893 X 0.13686c' 0. .188558 0.78 0 1 8.98650& 0.177073 lfc.6t.59 1 i.iec44i 0,174068 6, 6-781 1 3.649667 0.fc443? 16.614 I -i.?eioo3 0. 149416 -11.7859 1 -0.89t.78t. 0.149334 -fc.O05 1 1.718374 0.168616 10.5670 1 0.813933 0. 10U68- 6.7790 1 1.851864 0.074595 86.1635 S T Ft T I 3 r i L 16*35 FFIjDKr, M^CH 4. UMDI-EL* MDI'ELOl HEF Vfir: HEMF'fc S11'URiL S SSE I'FE M&E 8094*1.6 8551 4,49*068 F F8T1D Ff-Dt>F F-SC'UAFE M F-8F8MFTEF 379NI'FFH 0.OUOl 0.4703 0.OOOl 0.00nl 0.0001 0.OOOl 0. 0001 0.00Cl 0.UOOl 0.0001 ft N H L 9.5*6 0.OOol 0.0509 VmMh ELE l KIEL IiF E37IW67E EFR-CF T F-81JD F-FD1* < T } IHTEPCEF7 ClIYcenvy ClVy'4 cm*?. C1TY6 CITY?' urn cm* CMYIO C1TYII tlTY.lt CITY13 C11Y14 CITVI5 C1TY16 C1TY1? C17V18 C1TYI9 ... C1TY80 tnvci envee C1TYS3 tllYe'4 C1TY85 ClTYc* ClTYt? C17Y& C1TY89 1 -0.834663 1 -1,306009 i -0. 503803 l -0,990689 i . 145704 1 .19155 I 0.568504 i -0,873100 i -0.893115 I -0,530559 I -1.083718 I 1,473669 1 -0.307339 1 4.886388 1 0.4 01354 1 0.54*450 1 -0.693848 I 0, 316166 1 8.815456 1 -8. 084.353 i U. 749930 i -8.104753 I -1.886951 I 1.495760 1 -0.1345*37 f -1.663936 1 .833795 f 8.060655 1 -0,487930 0.091100 0. 44581 3 0.598570 0.581377 0, 544540 0.538513 0.459093 0.478444 0.500364 U.438751 0.431081 0.338875 0.416933 0.451937 0.5*3513 0.493889 0.488187 0.505738 0.485.839 0. 489596 0.49*1 39 0.445813 0.481081 0. 385 Oi 9 0.636448 0.554.138 0,49388 9 0.616034 0.554138 -3. 1803 --8.9334 -0.6417 -1.9005 3.94 04 4.1673 1.8333 -1.8480 -0.5338 -1.13t5 -8.4815 4.4841 -0,7371 9.3505 0.7537 1.10** -1.6198 0.685>8' 5.8099 -4.8519 1,5115 -4.7875 -6.*148 3.8648 -0,6513 -3,0087 5.7384 3.3450 -- 0. 8S Oft- _ 0.0016 0.0034 0.4 t.vi 0. 05` 4 0. 0001 0. 0001 0.8156 0. 064* 0,5598 0,6355 o, 0151 0.OoOl 0.4ft U 0.0001 0.4511 0. 6t 85 0, 1 054 0.5819 I', .JIH J 0. 00**1 0. 18*.; 0. O'-01 0. 0 0 8 0, OC'O! O.S'.'lt0.008* 0.OOOl 0.000c 0. ::"'86- DUP050034376 TEH 0533106 % cnvsf cnvjc it y :-4 C1TY35 C17Y36 CJ1V3? cnv38 CITY;-:?* cimo L.-JTY4J CI1V45 CJTY42 C1TY44 C1TV45 C1TY46 C1TY47 nn th u VWlfRE VHfc'lPTLE LL C1TY45 1 0.578653 0.541454 1 0576 0.360? 1 -0.101136 1 -0. 353643 0,505738 0.405384 -U.cOOO -0.8783 0,8*15 o. ;? 5 o 1 0.076454 0,416833 0.1834 0.6545 1 0.050066 0,418558 1 0.681311 0.464670 0.1187 3.1116 *>, 61.47 0. 0?4' 1 1,036330 0.564888 1.830? 0.05-6 1 0.711363 0.5*64885* 1.3607 0.4 07** 1 .851535 0.46-8506 6.0665 0. owl 1 0.567834 0.510751 1.1707 0.8436 1 -0.330836 0,85t803 -0. 4406 0.608*- 1 8,370867 0.443568 5.1133 0,uool 1 -0.608061 0,373084 -1.6111 o. l o' 8 1 0.3706 36 0,451857 0.85 0V V.4Jce 1 1. Ot.6330 0.481555 3.1754 0. 1.`Z 86 I 1.458018 0, 378308 viooo 0,uOv! 5.1.H 1 I ST 1 C 8 L - 6 H t- L V S I 7 16*35. f r iw ., I"j h * c h 4, i9t *. :< P8F *ME7ER S78Hl'HFI> DF ESTIMATE ERF OR 7 88110 FFDt - n: TEH 0533107 1 -0.867378 II. `-"i I'.tlfl? ^, , <, ' I.. IK-35 DUP050034377 -12- the effects one wants. Dr. Bradley expressed concern that our use of a limited number of statistically significant dummy variables undercontrolled for demographic representation compared.to Ethyl's analysis. % We haver as noted above , performed analyses Including site dummies and site Interactions and time, and performed separate analysis on different subgroups, to address some of these issues. Dr. Pirkle's 144 variable model (Table 20) with all first order interactions also addresses Dr. Bradley's concerns. Dr. Pirkle has also run this expanded model separately for several age and race subgroups. They are also in Appendix IV of this document. To further address Dr. Smith's concerns, we have performed another regression with changed definitions for some of the demo* graphic variables. We have redefined our age groups as 0-8, 8-21, and 21 and over. Degree of urbanization has been redefined as well, with Big representing cities over 250,000, Small representing urban areas between 10,000 and 250,000 in population or Rural representing cities under 10,000 and rural areas. We have considered but rejected the idea of changing the defini tion of sex and race,* These results (Table 21), as expected, agree with the previous analyses, with gasoline explaining 7.6 gu/dl of mean blood lead. We have also rerun our base model, which includes all vari ables that were statistically significant in s u r r e g r , other than time, with the natural log of individual's blood lead as the dependent variables. These results are on Table 22. The mean 1. In some states, the interaction of sex and race was illegal until recently TEH 0533108 DUP050034378 7*/e o>o Appendix C Multiple Regression Results for the Caroline Lead Variably' Caroline lead vas entered as a linear tern (CAS1), since previous analysis he shown this to provide generally a better fit to the data than the squared ter. (2). the dependent variable is the natural log of blood lead. Variables which represented less than 30 samples have been excluded. Standard errors are included for completeness but they do not incorporate the effects of the complex survey design, degression results are given for Slacks A Whitts, Blacks, Whites, Whites .5-5 yrs, Whites 6-17 yrs and Whites 16-74 yr*. CROUP; BLACK t WRITE SEP VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OF SOURCE MOSEL SF LOB SQUARES 9392684 ERROR 9596 19755540 C TOTAL 9704 29148225 ROOT MSE 45.373192 SEP MEAN 2.556008 C.V. 1775.158 ---- PARAMETER VARIABLE DF ESTIMATE 1NTERCEP 1 GAS1 1 MALE 1 SMALL 1 RURAL 1 MALESMAL 1 kal er ur l 1 MALECHILD 1 KALETEEN 1 CEMEP. 1 1EENRURL 1 MALECEK 1 i'.'LLCEN 1 CillLTJ 1 2EEN 1 1 2 ELKE.'JAL 1 CHlLSRURAL 1 CHILDCEN 1 t eenc en 1 INCOME1 1 IKCOME2 1 MALE1NCI 1 KALEINC2 1 Clll LSI NCI 1 1.931798 1.408876 0.261253 -0.144321 -0.200562 0.038549 0.106573 -0.232952 -0.121727 0.10223? 0.064181 -0.010045 0.C26566 0.162753 -0.013349 0.024662 -0.036664 0.047401 0.064344 0.061796 -0.052702 -0.026729 0.006370338 0.059071 0.254724 MEAN SQUARE 86969.299 2056.727 F VALUE 42.244 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ 0.3222 0.3146 e STANDARD T FOR BO: ERROR PARAMETERS 0.064307 0.063564 0.028768 0.051890 0.050244 0.020667 0.022732 0.070949 0.035557 0.037963 0.038687 0.017274 0.020493 0.073243 0.039076 0.074914 0.036911 0.074918 0.040478 0.021822 0.048486 0.030642 0.02683$ 0.017306 0.109362 30.040 22.158 9.061 -2.781 -3.992 1.865 4.688 -3.283 -3.423 2.693 1.659 -0.582 1.297 2.222 -0.3*2 0.329 -i.v.: D.t-33 2. Of4 3.746 * -1.087 -0.672 0.237 3.413 2.329 PROB. 0.0001 .tf PROBABILITY 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0054 0.0001 0.0622 0.0001 0.0010 0.0006 0.0071 0.0971 0.5609 0.1945 O.C2G3 0.7.326 0.741E 0.1107 0.5269 0.0372 0.0002 0.277K 0.3831 0.8124 0.-0D06 0.0199 TEH 0533109 DUP050034379 CH1LDIHC2 1 0.165470 TEENINC1 1 0.166734 TEEKIKC2 1 0.064511 SMALLIN1 I 0.045261 EHAILZK2 1 RURALIN1 1 -0.031361 0.145481 RURAL1N2 1 0.0351X0 INC1CEN IKC2CEN 1 1 0.125199 0.044674 KORTHEST 1 0.031087 MIDWEST 1 0.012956 SOUTH 1 -0.074607 WINTER 1 0.005362109 SPRING 1 -0.050764 SUMMER 1 -0.043379 NORTSUMM 1 -0.145331 MALENORT 1 0.034003 CENTNORT 1 -0.X20196 CK1LDNORT 1 -0.018204 TEENNORT 1 -0.068657 SKALNORT 1 0.017722 RURLNORT 1 -0.0091163 INC1NORT 1 -0.094198 1NC2NORT X 0.003014538 M1DWSPRI 1 -0,00984422 M1DVSUKM 1 -0.139198 KALEMIDW 1 0.020501 CEKTK1DW 1 0.031273 CH1LDM1DW X -0.052516 TEEKM1 DW 1 -0.114099 SMAIMIDW 1 -0.075110 RURLMIDW 1 0.038214 IKC1KIDW 1 -0.04165$ 1KC2MIDW 1 0.007096011 SOUTWINT 1 0.001092343 SOUTSPRI 1 -0.074399 KALESOUT X 0.045872 CENTSOUT X 0.01216? CUIIDSOUT 1 0.034920 7ELNSUUT X -0.106646 FKALSOUT X 0.055756 LUKLSOUT 1 C. 019-274 j i:;is o u t IKC2SOUT 1 X 0.M2E72 0.03V469 KALEW1NT X 0.024077 CENTWJKT 1 CH1LDWINT 1 -0-149661 -0.041283 1EENWINT i -0.053129 SMALWINT i -0.024507 RURLWJNT X -0.062305 JNC1KIKT 1 IKC2W1NT 1 -0.047007 0.013719 0.074143 0.072013 0.038407 0.034346 0.022X93 0.040148 0.024304 0.028874 0.0X8726 0.058552 0.0632X2 0.061220 0.060565 0.031231 0.070044 0.063938 0.023630 0.032389 0.053444 0.029052 0.052380 0.05X708 0.04X525 0.025573 0.062461 0.066452 0.023408 0.033190 0.052298 0.028941 0,051475 0.051627 0.038907 0.025408 0.058629 0.059121 0.020554 0.028922 0.045564 0.025010 0.03760t 0.03f$10 0.0337E3 0.022129 0.023619 0.036016 0.052496 0.029133 0.044663 0.041719 0.037463 0.025886 ? 5 -. 3 1 ' ' 0 0 d , 6K* . -3 r.: -l. . -O.iH -2.P/3 1 .*: -3.713 -0.341 -2.H3 0.3: f -0.17.' -2.268 0.116 -0.158 -2.095 0.676 0.942 -1.004 -3.942 -1.459 0,737 -1.071 0.279 0.019 -1.258 2.232 0.421 0.766 -4.272 1.4 3 0.497 0.381 ;.;-3 1.011 -4.155 -0.766 -1.624 -0.549 -1.493 -1.254 0,530 0.0124 t.ojo;. 0.0631 0.1876 '*,157/ 0.0003 0.1486 0.0001 0.0171 0.5955 0.6576 0.2230 0.9295 0.1041 0.5357 0.0230 0,1502 0.0002 0.7334 0.0181 0.7351 0.8601 0.0233 0.9062 0.8748 0.0362 0.3812 0.3461 0.3153 0.0001 0.1446 0.4609 0.2843 0.7B00 0.9851 0.2063 0,0256 0.6735 0.4437 0,0001 0,13*: 0.61`i 0.703. o.op: 0.3111 0.0601 0.4316 0.0682 0.5832 0.1354 0.305? o.w: HALESFR1 CEKTSPRI CHILDSPRI TEEKSPRI SKALSPRI RURLSPRI 1NC1SPR1 ZKC25PRI HALESUMH CEKTSUMM CHILDSUMH TEEKSUMM SMALSUMM RlIRLSUMM ZNC1SUMM INC2SUMH HA CH SK h a *"c h "r u Ha "t e"s ?: h a"t CR1, HA~CRK1 HA"CH"K2 ma "t e "k i HA"TE"K2 k i"s m"Kl Kl"fK2 K1~RU~Kl Kl"RU"K2 t e~s *TN1 TE"SJ"K2 TE RU"Kl TE"RU"K2 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 J 1 1 ) ) 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .; i?pi3 * C-.020503 .042646 '11036 .'266Vu 35864 .16346 ;'~V66?4 .102016 .7584174 ..013983 * .180571 (.063120 t>. 115469 0.011841 .064467 -i.. 143693 C.011600 -0. 113820 -0.029082 -0.076251 0.027675 -0.087877 -S-0-.016B76 -0.066304 -0.038820 -0.106637 0.018089 0.049850 -0.020203 0.018974 0.021448 0.029749 0.051109 0.026198 0.057075 0.056282 0.035972 0.023434 0.021847 0.030693 0.052543 0.026401 0.029939 0.030785 0.042031 0.023412 0.079356 0.082312 0.041895 0.043089 0.103766 0.067275 0.061898 0.035489 0.121718 0.085933 0.140410 0.087755 0.077408 0.044152 0.081335 0.045417 1.005 -3.768 -0.401 -1.628 1.420 0.513 -0.997 0.698 0.043 -3.324 0.144 -0.530 6.031 2.050 2.747 0.506 -0.812 -1.746 0,277 -2.642 -0.280 -1.133 0.447 -2.476 -0.139 -0.772 -0.276 -1,215 0.234 1.129 -0.248 0.418 0.3151 0.000? 0.6863 0.1036 0.1557 0.6077 0.3168 0.4855 0.9653 0.0009 0.8852 0.5964 0.0001 0.0404 0.0060 0.6130 0.4166 0.0809 0.7619 0.0083 0.7793 0,2571 0.6548 0.0133 0.8897 0.4404 0.7822 0.2243 0.6152 0.2589 0.8038 0.6761 TEH 0533111 DUP050034381 **'**" .. * ---*** wiiV'ne FhWtftjNt' WKNtiii Gstu *. u 3H0T& SAS INSTITUTE INC. sas c ir c l e _ ,. \*bt c 0m.1m M BOX 8000 CttV, N.C. 27511-8000 1 SAS I533EL NUNcER I o t n c r aj :-: or n is 11 k it h seco o bs er v at io n s in t s an al y s is OTff CHECKS CN THE X'X INVERSE RESULTED IN A RAXIHJtl RELATIVE DEVIATION OF C.359SS619D-07 THIS OCOREI IN ROW 8 ARC* IN COLUTM 7. IK TOLERANCE USED HAS 0.10000000B-05 0 mo d el n ic e r 1 OEETA VALUES FOR ICPEICfKT EFFECT LEAD 11:00 THURSDAY, HARCn 1NTERCFT TEEN 7EEMHALE KID MLTHALE KALE RURAL SHALL INCS1 ltCX2 FBI 4.23792 -1.39374 2.6S9S6 2.1496 4.4675 0.541922 -1.4604 -1.43S97 1.43571 0.6351S 1.3*575 OCLS v ar ian c es o f e t a s 0 INTERCP7 1EEK TEEMKALE KID AliLTfttLE HALE RURAL SHALL 1NCCK1 1NC0KC FBI 0.114494 -.006922 .0340359 ~2.tr.~CA -.025633 0.175445 -.006235 .00*2512 0.065161 .0734212 -.003523 .00*3076 0.124494 .07341530.141602 -7.1E-05 -6.3E-05 -.124406 -.065154-.124462 0.12441 -.014379- -S.6E-04 -3.4E-C4 -9.4E-04-9.1E-04 4.2E-04 , 0150959 -.012559 -0.0011 2.4E-04 -6.1E-04-4.SE-04 5.0E-04 .0080373,0225558 -.006921 .0013573 9.4E-04 .0019102.002620? -6.4E-04 -.001351 -.001S71 .0297477 -.0045:6 .0010062 4.9E-04 8.6E-05.0010551 -2.7E-04 -.0C1062 -9.2E-04 .0060605 .0134SS4 -.022375 -S.(-04 1.8E-05 -3.9E-04 3.9E-06 3.4E-06 .0017699 .0013079 1.7E-04 -3.CE-04 .0051454 Uvff-OTtfSIS TESTING RESULTS OMODEL KJKBER 1 0 E5S? DE&MINATGR DECREES OF FREEDOM ODEFENTEN! EFFECT F VALUE DEGREES OF FREEDOM FRCSABILITV LEAK TEST FOR OVERALL KCEL OIKKEFEKLENT EFFECTS TEEN TEENHALE KID ABLTHALE HALE RURAL SHALL JNC0KE1 1NCCC2 FBI mjmm - - ^ P-- 300.29 57.4* 42.24 62.94 140.95 2.36 141.23 97.50 49.29 25.91 693.46 10 1.0000 1 1.0000 1 1.0000 1 1.0000 1 1.0000 1 0.S756 1 1.0000 1 i.oooo 1 1.0000 1 1.0000 1 1.0000 TEH 0533112 DUP050034382 ' fT EFFECT mi KiD AOLTKALE HSLE RURAL SHALL IHMtl tKO& FSl *986 2.1496 4.4*75 0.541732 -1.4604 -1.48397 1.43571 C.6S13 I.S9575 !f{S * * ttiiKIG ADLTHALE HSU RURAL SHALL INCOMES INC0HE2 PB1 8447 308 0.120693 SS7 .0441775 0.121808 712 -.031547 -.098979 0.101073 373 ,0020623 0.031742 -.010751 .0949942 519 -.012666 0.021133 -.004345 ,0550044 .0866767 024 -0,00768 0.0234 -0.01435 .0487348 .0178403 0.092333 165 0.010375 ,0134333 -.011044 -.003652 .0055439 .0033433 .0210324 036 .0232442 .0044443 -7.9E-04 0.002166 .0079036 -.007856 0.002253 .0332675 -TS ETSES OF Ffmm f VALLE DECREES OF FREEDOM PROBABILITY 141.83 IP 0.0000 45.38 33.96 36,47 163.85 2.91 22.45 25.41 22.32 13,18 108.03 LATEIi THAT 1 0.0000 1 0.0000 1 0,6030 1 0.0000 1 0.0980 1 0.0000 1 0.0000 1 0.0000 1 0.0001 1 0.0006 25K KA: NEEEEI; FOR ARRAY STORAGE . 10*15 w h o m. ** u, i9r. * I TEH 0533113 DUP050034383 *.- *.*-04 1C-M Mt-M * 4.S-0* -I.OME >*.7E-0I -I.3E-04 -4.2-M 4.8-04 -2.K-0* -2.1M5 0.OM5 1.8-05 1.8*04 -1.8*04 l.g-04 2.4E-64 -l.X-M 1.8-05-i.8-05 I.X-05 -2.8-Ot 4.7E-01 7.8-04 7.5E-E 4.8-05 -4.5E-8 4.8-06 2.8-66 -2.8- 1.8-04 l.g-05 0.8-04 ' *0.8-05 7.K-W -2.8-05 F.2E-W-5.IE-8 ].lC-05 -4.2-05 -i.2-05 J.K-05 *.u- *S.t- 6.8-06 1.8-06 l.U-04 .*- -7.8-<5 -4.2-C5 -1.8-04 -4.8-06 2.8-05 2.1E-04 . *IthTSTtfiJS TRTltt 8JU.JE OHuXi NURBS I 0 S KWiJWTK BBSS IF FKHCn OOOCOilffmT F WLIE 8BEES 9 FRZXK KMfclUlY U2W ... t es t m OKuta urea 132.36 01CFCPX ef f ec t s M fcC FK 4.4] 1HWKUF nr KLTH^I 2E.il 121.04 IK. IS r u 3.61 KM. 16.32 SWj. ho c : IKHK 6.22 12.47 14.31 f ?: IW.3E 0NCTE- THE fRXZZK. ML.CU.fiTE- TKT ttmsw? 1 0.0146 1 0.0000 1 $.m> 1 0.0000 1 0.0216 1 O.0KC 1 0.0073 1 0.0013 1 0.0004 1 0.0600 UK JCE2ES FEE 4KV tTOFwC TEH 0533114 DUP050034384 -11- gasoline usage during the NHANES period explains the mean blood lead in this model* Again# the agreement and consistency of the amount of blood lead due to gasoline among all of these models is striking# and* ve believe* supports the conclusion that air lead sources contributed two to three times the 3 ug/dl to blood lead that was estimated in 1977-78 during the previous EPA stand ard setting. Further support for the hypothesis that this phenomenon is not an artifact of the choice of subgroups are the enclosed graphs from Dr. Billich's analyses* Figure 1 shows the geometric mean blood lead levels for black children screened in New York, Chicago# and X^uisville during the 1970s* the mean NHANES blood lead (which was all that was released when Dr* Blllich did his analysis) for black children in shown for comparison* This indi cates a consistent trend in three cities* based on several hundred thousand blood lead screens* Figure 2 shows the same data for the percent of children over 30 ug/dl. Again* the trend is clear* Figure 3 shows the results of several hundred thousand black and Hispanic blood lead tests# and gasoline lead in New York City* Figures 4* 5* 6* and 7 show these results broken down into age 0-1# 1-2# 2-3# and over 6# demonstrating a consistency across ages. Finally, I have updated the graphs of the national and Providence screening results that were in my previous paper to show two additional quarters of data. They indicate downward shifts of blood lead due to the two regulatory changes. All of these provide secondary reassurance that the relationship between gasoline lead and blood lead is not an artifact of sampling* TEH 0633115 DUP050034385 T IM E DEPENDENCt^OF BLOOD LEAD YEAR S O LID CHICAGO DOT NEW YORK DASH L O U IS V IL L E FIGURE 1 A L L C IT IE S B LA C K S ,2 4 - 3 5 MONTHS TEH 0533116 DUP050034386 T IM E DEPENDENCE OF BLOOD LEAD YEAR S O LID CHICAGO DOT NEW YORK DASH L O U IS V IL L E FIGURE a. A L L C IT IE S B LA C K S ,2 4 - 3 5 MONTHS DUP050034387 r % 9 I m i 9 F3 4 ^ TEH 0533118 DUP050034388 GASOLINE LEAD {Qiliiuii of .. .. J . fJr rs? I : ] m. - *iW-- * * "***< ***w *'** *W* ;i W.- * s MW " w Vp W . m r** co u> r* < ^( r*: > S r> * c i h C \:i .2=5 ;;.r." ii ili - :5 ;1 .; _.j :j r : o r* TEH 0533119 DUP050034389 i. .* v **. : zLzd ;.-3 ='! : i 1 .; k js:!;-?? si %i :: i m A j.-...=s X I; -= . . #5 rij ':J "3 -2 .iw- ..... z.-:. % .. TEH 0533120 DUP050034390 r i m r t T r n i v c a m m i T k ir \ r A T C NYC BLOOD AND ENVIRONMENTAL LEAD V S . T IM E AGE 2 5 - 3 6 MONTHS TEH 0533121 QUARTERLY SAMPLING DATE -...i. 'an*) 0V31 00013 uo I TEH 0533122 DUP050034392 NYC BLOOD AND ENVIRONMENTAL LEAD V S . T IM E AGE 7 2 + MONTHS O U A R T F P I V 55A.MP1 T M f? D A T F '.f?VJ DUP050034393 Response to Other Comments -14- Dr. Bradley and others have made several comments about our analysis. 1 would like to respond to them briefly. We had \ already examined time as an explanatory variable by the time we received Dr. Bradley's comments. Be obviously received only an earlier draft of our analysis. Dr. Bradley remarked that we had not used individual data in our regression, which biased results. We regret that lack of clarity in our paper lead him to this conclusion. In fact, all of our regressions were on individual data. Again, he states that we dismissed lead in food as a causal variable by remarking that it could not have changed enough to produce the effect. Dr. Bradley appears to have missed the section in our report where we tabulated food in the diet for three age groups in the 1970s. As we pointed out in that section, food lead appears to have increased slightly over the period, despite the reduction in lead solder in canned food noted by Ethyl. In our original report, we used regressions for New fork, Chicago, and Louisville to verify that season was not statistically significant when gasoline was included. Our December report also includes SURREGR runs on the NHANES data showing season is insig nificant in that analysis as well. We regret any imprecision in our statement in the October report. We believe that the lack of significance in 6 single city regressions (3 cities separately for two races) and in the NHANES regressions were reason enough to drop these variables. Obviously more detailed analysis can be done, but we believe our approach was reasonable. Ethyl does not appear to have investigated season in their report at all. TEH 0533125 DUP050034395 *;*)**' -IS- Conclusion The issue for the EPA Criteria Document is to assess how much blood lead may be due to air emissions# counting direct and indirect pathways. We believe the regressions presented here and in or December 19B2 report are sufficient to conclude that during 1976-80, 6-8 ug/dl of blood lead in the average American was due to air emissions (gasoline lead is about 90% of air emissions). TEH 0533126 DUP050034396 APPENDIX I % Expanded regressions using city dummies and city by gas interactions. TEH 0533127 DUP050034397 Whites .with city duntnies and tine, expanded model with small city, kid x gas and rural x $as interactions neat nmol man: man KP WR: UN) WE W50532018 CFE 1637 WE 450734.8 WRINUE Mttfra * ESTIMATE fMMRD SOU) WIWOT rit TEEN 1GEMMUE XLTWLE NUVK. am. IWI IWKl ucac MMLGAS MESAS TIRE 98NAH M7V2 cim cim fins cim CITW mre cm CITV1C cirm cim? cmis cm time HIW cum mm eimo C1TC1 C1TB2 CITY23 C1TO4 C1TC5 CITY26 CITK27 turn cm CITY30 CITY3J cws? tines mrsti elms cum cim7 Cf cim? cimo CjTMt erne mr mm mv CITY46 cm7 time cim? catwo? s 4.11*827 1.573065 i 3.36*178 1.37636? 1 4.706361 1 i.texK amen 0.5340M 1 4.264116 4.477170 1 4.6X727 4.707054 1 4.17*871 4.342357 i 4.712338 4.461250 i 1.233564 4.174614 i 4.692144 4.116109 i 4.267054 4.166037 i 4.000630 0.312666 i -1.676502 0.244721 i 1.260827 0.165944 s -4.706849 0.39065? 0.601767 4.587206 i 4.657102 4.566113 i 2.021306 . 4.507553 1.570678 4.566276 i 4.634672 4.495790 i -0.603261 -1.626316 i 4.191667 4.467762 4.5061X 4.526693 1.060867 4.457907 -0.777763 4.374941 i 0.750625 4.446356 i 1.667346 4.507006 i 1.067661 4.531213 -2.266233 4.474276 t 0.764261 4.573309 0.622126 4.497514 i -1.062907 4.456929 i 4.373427 0.576070 i -1.211571 0.476599 i -4.777523 4.567169 > 1.06076? 4.419024 4.036262 4.646049 -1.743736 4.63755? i 3.275904 0.549384 i 3.610662 4.647635 i 4.071675 4.576469 i 2.164445 i -0.272448 i 1.506223 4.496345 4.531030 4.463327 i 0.476372 t -4.772618 0.567422 0.436902 i 4.245035 0.461365 i 4.317767 i 4.207367 t 4.63516? 0.443595 0.504316 4.648121 i -1.817713 1.670S? 4.326126 t. 476854 4.722756 0.475:32 i o.fSTSsi' 0.969786 i 2.763754 4.418206 i 4.050044 4.436771 i -1.060403 4.509153 i -0.344215 4.466036 i 0.474921 4.3*4620 tI -0,563675 1.026707 4.453303 0.476366 ratrto am? HUME 1743 atool awu TWTI0 7.0663 S.4474 -3.7674 2.7670 6.5764 asm -4.5609 1.4802 7.4645 3.6166 -1.7063 4.2579 4.0507 4.7807 -2.1214 1.0246 -1.1443 3.9668 2.4791 1.4836 0.0246 -2.8179 4.1625 -2.3168 -1.974? -1.4737 3.2926 2.0613 4.7763 1.0432 1.2505 -2.3596 4.4460 -2.5421 -1,4966 2.5792 -4.4592 -3.0490 3.962? 5.5751 0.123? 4.4011 4.5507 3.1144 0.6395 -1.7664 0.5552 4.7215 4.4152 1.2866 -3.4549 3.9367 1.5209 0.7046 6.6564 4.0666 -2.0857 -4.7381 1.2341 -1.2435 2.1553 soon: aoooi a0144 aocw aom aoooi am? axis a 1389 aoooi am 4.0876 4.7965 aoooi aoooi aom ams 0.2444 aoooi 0.0074 4.0924 4.4064 a4048 C7170 aosos 4.0463 4.0942 aooio a0403 aoooi a 1728 0.2112 ao3 asios aoito aoo4 a0099 0.9528 a0023 aoooi aoooi awn aoooi C.X18 0.0016 a4012 a0770 0.57S3 0.4707 a6780 0.1976 0.0006 0.0001 ai263 0.48)1 0.0001 0.9452 0.0373 0.4602 0.2172 4.2137 4.0312 TEH 0533128 DUP050034398 MODEL: MOBELOl NEIGKT: NEIGHT JDEF WK: LEAD SSI 3852093221 DFE 1542 USE 450959.2 f RATIO PRCOf R-S8UARE 59.97 0.0001 0.2858 VARIABLE Par amet er DF ESTIHATE STANDARD ERROR T RATIO p k >:t ; INTERCEPT KID 1EEN TEEWWLE ADLTNALE MURAL MALI 1NCWEI 1HC0ME2 TINE PBKAT1 CITY2 CITY3 CITYA CITY5 CITY6 CITY7 CITVS CITY? cimo CITY11 CITY12 CITY13 cmi5 emit CITYJ7 CltYlS CITY1? CITOC emu CITY22 CITY23 CITY24 C1TY25 CITY26 CITY# CI7Y23 CITY29 cm3o C1TY31 C1TY32 CITY33 CITY34 cnyss C17Y36 CITV37 C1TY33 tms? CITY40 C1TY41 CITY42 cims CITV44 CITY45 CJ7Y46 CITY47 C1TY43 J 4.75519? 0,662472 V 10. mo 1 8.023615 0.356520 1.4809 1 -0.707892 0.187992 -3.7656 i 1.489997 . 0,534025 1 4.261738 0,497184 2,7901 8.5718 1 -0.557536 0.138840 -4.0157 t 0.712454 0.481246 1 1.231567 0.174589 1.4804 7.0541 1 0.650258 1 -1.639302 1 1.080540 0.116041 0.243918 0.152454 5.6037 0.7228 7.0376 1 -1.002569 0.386912 -2.5912 1 -0.454674 1 -0.330465 0.511597 0.478617 -0.8387 0.6995 1 2.229714 0.473325 1 1.945790 0.488241 1 0.772670 0.493757 4.7107 3.9853 1.5649 1 0.434616 0.485683 -0.9978 I -1.239942 1 0.410913 0.491047 0.462711 -2.5251 0.8831 ' I -1.010621 0.456069 -2.215? 1 -0.704331 1 -0.611927 0.391081 0.437527 -1.8010 -1.3986 I 1.759403 0.45376? 3.8773 1 0.991930 I -2.264497 0.528300 0.474117 1.8776 -4.7762 1 0.883337 1 0.713600 1 -1.12S294 0.478119 0.406163 0.453211 1.8486 1.7569 -2.4624 1 -0.141832 0.490987 -0.288? I -0.899356. 0.399943 -2.2437 1 -0.596378 0.486379 -1,2262 1 1.134119 i 0.230618 1 -1.699204 0.417432 0.565381 0.556423 2.7166 0.4079 -3.0538 1 3.579365 0.450065 J 3.83)496 0,570333 1 0.366493 0.436038 7.9530 6.717? 0.7540 1 2.169393 0.496256 4,3715 I -0.096560 1 1.611493 0.515139 0.439248 -0.1874 3.6688 1 0.72574? 1 -0.707942 1 0.257575 0.487374 0.434074 0.440309 1.4891 -1.6309 0.5843 J *0.429192 1 0.252237 1 -0.601341 0.433513 0.434393 0.565238 -0.9787 0.5800 -1.0639 i -1.703433 0.520667 -3.2812 i 2.010427 0.465682 i 0.69-9232 0.474764 4.3172 1.4728 i 0.509339 i 2.755307 i -0.016727 0.689797 0.41714? 0.436030 0.5725 6.6051 -0.0384 i -1.043818 i -0.335901 i 0.37834? 0.509058 0.465510 0.381296 -2.0505 -0.7216 0.9936 i -0.58342? 0.453106 -1.2987 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0053 0.0001 0.0001 0.1388 0.0001 0.0001 0.000! 0.0001 0.0096 0.3742 0.439? 0.000! 0.0001 0.1176 0.3184 0.0116 0.3745 0.0267 0.0717 0.1620 0.0001 0.0605 0.0001 0.0646 0.0790 0.0138 0.7727 0.0246 0.2202 0.0066 0.6834 0.0023 0.000! 0.000! 0.4509 0.000! 0.8513 0.0002 0.1365 0.102? 0.5590 0.3277 0.5619 0.2874 0.0010 0.0001 0.1408 0.5670 0.0001 0.9694 6.0403 0.4706 0.3205 0.1941 ttiites, with Time and City Dunnies \ Mean Blood lead Explained by Gasoline * 4.32 ug/dl TEH 0533129 DUP050034399 MOI&! wraaoi m4EIGNT: IE1GHT OF LEAD SSE J854638S57 m 1542 MST 451257.2 r RATIO PR0E7F R-SWWE VARIABLE INTERCEPT KID TEEN TEEWSLE ABtTWLE RURAL KALE JKflCJ IO2 THE F8WT1 CC1TY2 CCITY3 KITY4 Bern's KITO CC1TY7 CCITVS 6C.ITY9 CCITiTO KI7Y11 K17YJ2 CCITY1S CCITYIS KITTlo CCITY17 semis CeiTYJ? K17Y2G BCITY21 6C11V22 KITY23 KITY24 K17Y25 (C1TO6 KITY27 6CJTY28 Sana KITV30 eriTYsi KJTY32 K1TY33 KITYS4 BCITYS5 KITYS6 KITY'S? KITV38 Kin's? CC3TY40 8C1TY41 CCITY42 Kims SC1TY44 Kims K1TY46 KITY47 K1TV4S WWAMETER STANDARD IF ESTIMATE ERROR T RATIO 1 4.818219 1 3.022838 I -0,708600 * 0.654OS3 \ 10.4240 0.35660? (.4766 0,168057 -3.7680 1 1.491112 . 0.534179 1 4.262821 0.497346 2,7914 8.5711 1 -0.560746 0.138811 1 0.712947 0.481402 -4.1837 1.4810 1 1.220160 0.174595 } 0.644238 0.116052 6.9885 5.5513 1 -1.654434 0.241933 -6.8386 1 1.075765 0.151755 7.0888 1 -0.00271681 0.001017416 -2.6723 1 -0.00122895 0.001274452 -0.9643 1 -0.000737195 0.0009490541 -0.7767 1 0.004176695 0.0009540849 4.3777 1 0.003697683 0.0009543766 1 0.001928389 0.001285097 3.8744 1.5006 1 -0.00133411 0.001270876 -1.0498 1 -0.00242743 0.000928431 -2.6146 1 0.0007972192 0.0009894348 0.8557 1 -0.0023124 0.0009732846 -2.3759 1 -0.00151624 0.0003376225 1 -0.00127118 0.0008630C52 -1.8102 -1,4730 1 0.00438098 0.001179857 8.7131 1 0,002505086 0.001376496 1.819? 1 -0.00563931 0.001162029 -4.8530 1 0.001889655 0.001280859 1.4753 1 0.001810591 0.001082134 1.6732 1 -0.00287085 0.001144386- -2.5086 1 -0.000457616 0.001139614 -0.4017 1 -0.00181864 0,0007709432 -2.3590 1 -0.00120747 0.0009253553 -1.304? 1 0.002228141 0.0008435059 2.6415 1 0.0001878955 0.001231184 0.1526 1 -0.00388966 0.OC1251373 -3.1083 I 0.007352426 0.000941425 7.8099 1 0,00856465 0.001282137 6.6800 1 0.0006837457 0.001028941 0,66*45 1 0.00485551 0.001130752 4.2941 1 *0.000287765 0.0009935596 1 0.003799185 0.001052068 -0.2896 3.6112 1 0.00136.3788 O.O01O6O147 1.2864 1 -0.00148862 0.000876169$ -1.6990 1 0.0005020447 0.0009978655 0.5031 1 -0.0021054 0.002012392 -1.0462 1 0.000637683 0,001284343 1 -0.00153649 0.001321616 0,4965 -1.1626 1 -0.0P378407 0,001083577 -3.4922 1 0.003762433 0.00089(7528 4.2239 1 0.0016-10906 0.0011366-58 1.4172 1 0.001980073 0.003753412 0.5275 1 0.00655331 O.0O1O1O486 6,4353 1 -0.000102557 0.001135659 -0.0903 I -0.00246974 0.001178021 -2.0965 1 -0.OOO761742 0.001096939 -0.6944 1 0.0009568542 0.001067034 0.8967 I -0.00159224 0.00120004? -1.3268 99.83 0.0001 0.2853 08>!T: 0,0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0053 0.0001 0.0001 0.1386 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0,0075 0,334? 0.4373 0.0001 0.0001 0.1335 0.2939 0.0090 0,4204 0.0175 0.0703 0.1408 0,0002 0.0688 0.0001 0.1402 0,0943 0,0121 0.6879 0.0183 0.1920 0.0083 0.8787 0.0019 0.0901 0.0001 0.5064 0.0001 0.7721 0.0003 0.1983 0.0894 0.614? 0,2955 0.6196 0.2450 0.0005 0.0001 0.1565 0.5978 0.0001 0.9280 0.0361 0.4874 0.3699 0.1846 Whites, with Tine and city by gas interactions % * Mean Blood Lead Explained b; Gasoline 4.30 ug/dl TEH 0533130 DUP050034400 APPENDIX II Dr. Pirkle's regressions for ell races# Blacks# whites# white children# white teenagers# and white adults. Using three different gasoline lead # variables. TEH 0533131 DUP050034401 .TXJ* _,s_JpT :.~ *u -* w." . ' Tabic 2 V. IfM* in the Piet (micrograas/day) Teenage Mala 1976 1:*77 1978 1979 1980 71.1 79.3 95*1 81.7 82.9 6 %. % No downward trend ia present. suggesting 1 explanation oi the decrease in blood lead NHANES XI survey* Leed in gasoline / * . T- from leaded gtroline. The amount of lead used in gasoline production across the nation is available from the quarterly refiner's report* to EFA. During a 3-month period, the NHANES IX caravans on-the-average sampled A different sites in the USA and over a 6-month period they sampled on-the-average 8 sites* Three gas variables were tested to cover both the 3-month and 6-month breakdown of gasoline lead data: . ` v. , . .* * , .*v * ,-r.**.?: *^V. . * (1) Casl - amount of lead used in gasoline for each of the quarters of the year during the NHANES 11 survey <2) cas2 * amount of lead used in gaaoline for the January-June and July-December 6-month periods during the NHANES XI survey (3) Gas3 amount of lead used in gasoline for the Apr i 1-September and October-March 6-month periods during the NHANES XX survey *. I* .*. The regression procedure included the demographic variables itemised in Appendix A and was performed separately for each of these gas variables* A "gas-squared" term vas also permitted to enter each model to account for a curvilinear relation* The regression results by race and selected age groups are given in Appendix A* The amount of downward trend attributable to gasoline lead i6 tabulated by race and selected age groups in Table 3 and the gas variable with the generally most conservative results (Gasl) is shown in Figure 1. AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES, THE GASOLINE LEAD VARIABLE (G/.S1, CAS2 OR CAS3) VAS ALWAYS HIGHLY STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT <p .0001) AND ALONE COULD ACCOUNT FOR THE DOWNWARD TREND IN LEAD VALUES OVER TIME SEEN IN THE NHANES II SURVEY. * . t . * ** . . m . v.y sp>* Y * *'* %:> * . . TEH 0533132 DUP050034402 )( regression on the le>d in Gasoline Variables laeb of the gas variables is in units of 1000 tons of lead divided by 100 to reduce Che magnitude of the variable to approximately that of the 0-1 indicator variables. As with the tine regressions, some of the ffpcl models contain interaction terns without the corresponding pain offsets. *A11 of the main effects were reintroduced to these final models and the retresaion rerun to insure that their omission did not significantly alter the **jts" coefficients or the percent decrease in blood lead levels accounted for by lead in gasoline. The "gee* coefficients changes leas than 3.51 and the percent decrease in blood lead levels accounted for by gasoline Iced changed leas then 1.1Z Ce.g. 34.41 to 33.31). The final models resulted from a manual backward elimination procsdurs (decribed on page 3) performed sepsrstelv for each of the three gas variables. In each regression the denominator degrees of freedom (df) is 32. Results are given below for each race and selected age groups of whites. The "gasn variable (Gael, Cas2, or Cas3) is consistently significant. teed in Gasoline Variable* Gael Croup: Blech A White Variable KALE KALECHILD CHILD KALETEEH CAS1 HALERURL SHALLDUT TEEN0DT RALEOUT INTERCEPT F Stat; 928.2 327.6 200.4 128.5 89.6 13.6 5.6 4.4 4.0 DF 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Overall Kodel 256.2 9 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0247 0.0434 0.0541 Coeff; 0.37584 -0.33918 0.27565 -0.19898 1.42693 -0.08638 -0.05091 -0.07768 0.05167 1.78655 0.0000 . Variance 0.0001500 0.0003500 0.0003800 0.0003100 0.0227163 0.0005400 0.0004700 0.0013639 0.0006700 0.0044702 n C: r.uv; Hack Variable KALE CHILD CAS1 KA LECH 114) KALETEEH TEEN TEENOUT HALEOUT INTERCEPT F St at.. 196.3 145.3 91.2 68.2 16.5 6.4 3.0 2.5 DF 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Overall Kodel 110.2 6 Proh. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0168 0.0919 0.1288 0.0000 Ce-rff. 0.39318 0.48829 0.99997 -0.44610 -0.23137 0.07328 -0.17989 0.08737 2.06451 Vlc.Tr*i iawa.. 0.0i V'/ j.'J1 0.0016415 0.0109703 0.0029167 0.0028991 0.000S400 0.0107213 0.0030057 O.OOCfiC'O TEH 0533133 DUP050034403 C . c>vp : ' rilt. \ VtTieMe KALI HALECBILD CHILD CASI KALETEEN RURAL SMALL TEES MALEODT INTERCEPT F Stat. 674.9 250.3 126.9 104.2 59.1 22.3 13.3 7.7 6.1 DF 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Overall Model 160.6 9 Frob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0,0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0090 0.0193 0.0000 Coeff. 0.34352 -0.32582 0.23235 1.47503 -0.18393 -0.13970 -0.10110 -0.05611 0.04796 1.83529 Variance o.oooiToo 0.0004200 0.0004300 0.0208812 0.0005700 0.0008800 0.0007300 0.0004100 0.0003800 0.0038429 1? Croup: White *5-5 vrs Variable MALE CASI RURAL SMALL MALEOUT INTERCEPT F Stat. 570.9 92.3 23.8 14.1 5.9 DP 1 1 1 1 1 Overall Model 257.0 5 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0007 0.0209 0.0000 Coeff* 0.29737 1.44410 -0.14286 -0.10304 0.05095 1.83879 Variance 0.0001500 0.0225929 0.0008600 0.0007500 0.0004400 0.0041133 Croup: White 6-17 vra. Variable HALE CASI RURAL SMALL 1KTERCEFT F Stat. 1174.3 114.6 20.6 14.9 DF 1 1 1 1 0. ere 11 Model 30D.8 4 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 O.DOD0 Coeff. 0.34271 1.45531 -0.12087 -0.09452 1.84415 Variance 0.0001000 0.0187422 0.0007100 0.0006000 0.0037919 Croup: White 18-74 yrs. Variable MALE CASI RURAL INTERCEPT . F Stat. 66.6 31.8 5.1 DP "T l l Overall Model 35.5 3 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0312 0.0000 Corff. 0.15381 1.40769 -0.07161 1.79792 Variance 0.0003600 0.0622069 0.0010101 0.0111279 TEH 0533134 DUP050034404 It it. Gasoline Variable: CAS2 Group? Hacks A White* Variable MAUL KALECHILD CHILD CAS 2 MALETEEN RURAL. HALEOUT CRIIDRURAL TEEN SMALL, SHALLOW INTERCEPT F Stat. 909.4 377.9 234.0 100.9 95.8 23.8 15.1 14.9 5.4 3.8 3.6 DF "T l l 1 1 1 l 1 l l l Overall Model 200.0 11 Prob. oi.oooo 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 o.oooo 0.0005 0.0005 0.0273 0.0598 0.0657 0.0000 Coeff. 0.34076 -0.33764 0.30608 0.77418 -0.19386 -0.14514 0.06695 -0.09014 -0.03967 -0.05578 -0.06046 1.80786 Variance '0.0001300 0.0003000 0.0004000 0.0059587 , 0.0003900 0.0008900 0.0003000 0.0005500 0.0002900 0.0008200 0.0010061 0.0048407 Group: Black Variable MALE CHILD KALECHILD GAS2SQ MALETEEN MALERURL MALEOUT SMALLOUT INTERCEPT Overall Model P Stat. 166.0 136.7 56.8 36.2 21.9 6.8 5.2 4.2 DF T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 46.7 8 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0134 0.0291 0.0479 0.0000 Coeffm 0.38893 0.47271 -0.42610 0.39912 -0.20361 -0.17387 0.15268 -0.10112 2.20442 Variance 0.0009100 0.0016347 0.0031954 0.0044039 0.0018978 0.0044112 0.0044635 0.0024159 0.0026534 0-rt.up: Vf*it,c Vf rifMf HALE MALE CHILD CHILI) GAS2 MALETEEN P Stat. 746.7 262.3 129.9 83.6 64.0 DF 1 1 1 1 1 Prob. O', oboo o.oooo 0.0000 0,0000 o.oooo Coeff. 0.34426 -0.32447 0,22909 0.79861 -0.18931 Vr ricTce o.oocivc? 0.0004000 0.0004000 0.0076249 0.0005600 TEH 0533135 DUP050034405 RURAL SHALL TEEN ma l e d u t INTERCEPT Overall Model 19.5 8.7 8.2 8.8 185.4 1 1 1 1 9 0.0001 0.0059 0.0073 0.0148 0.0000 -1.1:;% -c*,ov: -0.05520 0.04425 1.77408 (.X*6V 0.0005700 0.0002900 0.0003072 \ Croup: White 5-5 era. Variable MALE CAS 2 RURAL Sma l l MALEOUT INTERCEPT r Stat. 621.8 71.9 20.3 9.0 5.7 OF 1 1 1 l Overall Model 247.8 5 Proh. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0052 0.0230 0.0000 Coeff. '0.29721 0.77009 -0.13155 -0.07902 0.04678 1.78925 Variance 0.000)400 0.0082465 0.0008500 0.0006900 0.0003800 0.0068279 * Croup: White 6*17 jn Variable MALE CAS2 RURAL SMALL INTERCEPT F Stat. 1343.7 77.0 16.2 6.6 OP 1 l 1 1 Overall Model 315.5 4 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0061 0.0000 Coeff. 0.34215 0.78245 -0.11078 -0.07120 1.79346 Variance 0.0000870 0.0079501 0.0007600 0.0005900 0.0067350 Group: 'White 18-74 yr* Variable GAS 2 KALE RURAL INTERCEPT F Stat; 66.5 62.3 5.7 OF 1 1 1 Overall Model 45.5 3 Proh. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0235 0.0000 Coeff. 0.84111 0.14637 -0.07527 1.68533 Variance 0.0106363 0.0003500 0.0010012 0.0074795 TtH 0533136 DUP050034406 t*e variable: CAS3 F Stat. 880.3 336.3 212.6 102.6 85.3 23.2 12.8 12.7 5.3 4.3 OF 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 185,9 10 Frch. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0012 0.0279 0.0*62 0.0000 Coeff, 0.3*937 -0.33742 0.30632 0.68839 -0.18984 -0.1*733 -0.06*62 -0.09603 0.04429 -0.03654 1.68479 %. t .4% *0 r`D t : 14 * .200 9300 f 600 f , 500 TOD C.f- 100 f.f *81 T Stat. 204.2 144.3 103.5 6*. 6 16,9 OF 1 1 1 1 1 167.6 5 Frob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 o.oooo 0.0003 0.0000 Coeff. 0.39472 0.47893 0.49571 -0.47215 -0.19477 2.06256 Variance 0.0007600 0.0015695 0.0023736 0.0028230 0.0022499 0.0013784 T Stat. 6*1.2 238.6 121.2 101.0 58.3 20.9 14.8 6.6 3.4 OF "I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 160.7 9 Frob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0136 0.0263 0.0000 Coeff. 0.34266 -0.32357 0.230C5 0.73855 -0.18*59 -0.135; . -0.10004 -0.05338 0.04776 1.82602 Variance 0.0001600 r.0C"..00 C`.c;-'.-vo 0. 00540?4 O.OMWP .. i * * v 0 o.oooffoo 0.0004200 0.0004200 0.0042439 %6 >T\ttiCe rccioi^oo .0003*00 .000*500 .00*61'* 1.000*200 j.0000300 ).0005600 j.0007600 0.0003700 0.0003100 0.0036081 Variance. !>.0007ttwO 0.0015895 0.0023736 0.0028230 0,0022*99 0.001378* v* ri met 0.0001600 0.000**00 c.v- '4 : > * 6 0.0iJii 0,0C0*200 0.000*000 e 0.0042*39 12 TEH 0533137 DUP050034407 APPENDIX III Dr. Pirkle's expanded regressions on subgroups including region and time. TEH 0533138 DUP050034408 of blood lead on tine, CASQ and the demographic covariatea'ke presented below Overall (all race*) and for population subgroup* defined by race, eex and age. table 1 Regression of In (blood lead) on time, gasoline lead and the demographic eovariate* Overall DEP VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OF SOURCE DF SQUARES MODEL 15 8679012 ERROR 9598 20418667 C TOTAL 9613 29097679 ROOT MSE 46.123613 DEP MEAN 2.552308 C.V. 1807,134 MEAN SQUARE 578601 2127.388 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ F VALUE 271.977 0.2983 0.2972 PR0B7F 0.0001 VARIABLE DF PARAMETER ESTIMATE STANDARD T FOR BO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 PROS > iTt INTERCEP TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN RURAL INC! RACE1 SOUTH AS1 SEX1 AS2 AR1 AH A12 RU1 1 2.095277 0.056789 1 -0.00289957 0.0005026863 1 1.014058 0.098840 i 0.358810 0.032707 l 0.011049 0.016747 l -0.085540 0,009090293 l -0.013582 0.008561066 l 0.080155 0.017059 l -0.016512 0.009873789 i -0.335250 0.031474 i 0.366128 0.008161028 i -0.176068 0.017034 l 0.118381 0.044671 l -0.167202 0.033486 l -0.085067 0.018105 l 0.068556 0.022530 36.896 -5.768 10.260 10.971 0.660 -9.410 -1.587 4.699 -1.672 -10.652 44.863 -10.336 2.650 -4.993 -4.698 3.043 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.5094 0.0001 0.1127 0.0001 0.0945 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0,0081 0.0001 0.0001 0.0023 TEH 0533139 DUP050034409 VARIABLE DF INTERCEF TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN RURAL INCI ftACEl SOUTH AS1 SEX1 AS2 ARl All AI2 RU1 l 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TOLERANCE 0.207132 0.202380 0.227*73 0.253132 0.714027 0.712524 0.416136 0.495528 0.462441 0.7239SB 0.418905 0.741449 0.340399 0.293672 0.436398 VARIANCE INFLATION 0.000000 4.827833 4.941189 4.396127 3.950506 1.400507 1.403461 2.403063 2.018050 2.162438 1.381238 2.387175 1.348710 2.937731 3.405159 2.291485 Slacks DEP VARIABLE: LEAD SOM OF SOURCE DF SQUARES MODEL 10 970585 ERROR 1260 2029465 C TOTAL 1270 3000049 ROOT MSE 40.133358 DEP MEAN 2.680228 C.V. 1497.386 MEAN SQUARE 97058.458 1610.686 R-SQUAEE ADJ R-SQ F VALUE 60.259 0.3235 0.3182 FROB>F 0.0001 VARIABLE DF PARAMETER ESTIMATE s t an d ar d T FOR BO; ERROR FARAMETER-0 FROB > iTl INTERCEP TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN INCl WINTER AS1 SEX1 AS2 All 1 2.526215 0.103983 1 -0.00500626 0.0009984329 1 0.353966 0.186508 1 0.526338 0.056123 1 0.054550 0.028944 1 -0.030271 0.020077 1 -0.116598 0.018725 1 -0.443217 0.070593 1 0.418723 0.022684 1 -0.250017 0.041580 1 -0.129830 0.072786 24.295 -5.014 1.898 9.378 1.885 -1.508 -6.227 -6.278 18.459 -6.013 -1.784 0.0001 0.0001 0.0579 0.0001 0.0597 0.1319 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0747 TEH 0533140 DUP050034410 VARIABLE DP INTERCEP TIME CASQ CHIU) TEEM INCl WINTER ASX SEX1 AS2 All .. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * TOLERANCE VARIANCE INFLATION 0.306376 0.328057 0.380611 s 0.495075 0.853977 0.929210 0.438790 0.636460 0.403807 0.621781 0.000000 3.263960 3.048253 2.627353 2.019895 1.170992 1.076183 2.278996 1.571190 2.476432 1.608284 White* DEP VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OF SOURCE MODEL DF 12 SQUARES 7343074 ERROR 8115 17625888 C TOTAL 8127 24948962 ROOT MSE 46.604863 DEP MEAN 2.534574 C.V. 1838.765 MEAN SQUARE 611923 2172.013 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ P VALUE 281.731 0.2941 0.2930 PROB>F 0.0001 VARIABLE DF PARAMETER ESTIMATE STANDARD T FOR HO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 PROB > lTt INTERCEP TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN RURAL INCI SOUTH AS1 SEX1 AS2 ATI AI2 1 1.992910 0.061852 1 -0.0021311 0.0005485945 1 1.226663 0.107695 1 0.336005 0.036347 l 0.004706979 0.019437 1 -0.095105 0.009430613 1 -0.017754 0.009301633 1 -0.010784 0.010659 1 -0.324540 0.035340 1 0.360146 0.008807009 1 -0.174523 0.016691 1 -0.156417 0.037990 l -0.087937 0.020718 32.221 -3.885 11.390 9.244 0.242 -10.085 -1.909 -1.012 -9.183 40.893 -9.337 -4.117 -4.244 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 O.OOQl 0.6087 0.0001 0.0563 0.3117 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 TEH 0533141 DUP050034411 K VARIABLE DP INTERCEP TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN RURAL INCI SOUTH A5I SEXI AS2 All A12 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i \ TOLERANCE . 0.207085 0.206078 0.232822 0.226672 0.831405 0.746841 0.501725 0.469661 0.735047 0.421654 0.306019 0.255298 VARIANCE INFLATION 0.000000 4.828940 4.852540 4.295129 4.411655 1.202783 1.338973 1.993125 2.129194 1.360458 2.371610 3.267767 3.916990 % White males DEP VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OF SOURCE DP SQUARES MODEL 8 1894294 ERROR 4029 8270834 C TOTAL 4037 10165128 ROOT MSE 45.308117 DEP MEAN C.V. 2.689992 1684.322 MEAN SQUARE 236787 2052.825 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ P VALUE 115.347 0.1864 0.1847 PROB>F 0.0001 VARIABLE DP p a r a me t e r ESTIMATE STANDARD T FOR HO: ERROR PARAMETERS) INTERCEP TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN XNC1 SOUTH All A12 1 2.460820 0.083823 1 -0.0D337228 0.0007075701 1 0.971793 0.143880 1 -0.029760 0.042495 1 -0.169140 0.025128 1 -0.046217 0.013411 1 -0.042896 0.013829 I -0.101171 0.051547 1 -0.086459 0.029153 29.357 -4.766 6.754 -0.700 -6.731 -3.446 -3.102 -1.963 -2.966 PROB > |Tl 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.4838 0.0001 0.0006 0.0019 0.0498 0.0030 VARIABLE DF TOLERANCE VARIANCE INFLATION INTERCEP TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN INC1 SOUTH All AI2 1 1 l 1 l l 1 t l 0.239792 0.225153 0.315469 0.252792 0.739640 0.577555 0.310630 0.232440 0.000000 4.170285 4.441424 3.169881 3.955827 1.352010 1.731438 3.219268 4.302188 TEH 0533142 DUP050034412 H White females CEP VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OF SOURCE DF SQUARES MODEL 9 1940211 ERROR 4080 9357293 C TOTAL 4089 11297504 ROOT USE 47.890022 DEP MEAN 2.386616 C.V,, 2006.608 MEAN SQUARE 215579 2293.454 R-SQUARE AJDJ R-SQ V VALUE 93.998 0.1717 0.1699 PROB3F ' 0.0001 VARIABLE DF PARAMETER ESTIMATE STANDARD T FOR BO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 INTERCEF TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN RURAL INCi SOUTH All A12 1 1.967295 0.089469 1 -0.00222252 0.0007992199 I 1.288704 0.156251 1 0*372557 0.046517 1 0.004172502 0.024389 1 -0.119651 0.013610 l 0.008169898 0.012932 1 -0.00521605 0.015500 1 -0.211954 0.056015 1 -0.089518 0.029476 21.989 -2.781 6.248 6.009 0.171 -8.791 0.632 -0.337 -3.784 -3.037 PROS > It ! 0.0001 0.0056 0.0001 0.0001 0.8642 0.0001 0.5276 0.7365 0.0002 0.0024 VARIABLE DF TOLERANCE VARIANCE in f l at io n INTERCEF TIME CASQ CHILD TEEN RURAL INCI SOUTH All AI2 1 l l i l i l l i l 0.202290 0.200592 0.306560 0.308914 0.824781 0.761369 0.489178 0.300735 0.280842 0.000000 4.943390 4.985256 3.262004 3.237150 1.212443 1.313424 2.044244 3.325188 3.560720 White* .5 - 5 ye*r* DEP VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OF SOURCE DF SQUARES MODEL 5 196919 ERROR 1826 791622 C TOTAL 1831 988542 ROOT MSE 20.821338 DEP MEAN 2.636024 c.v. 789.8766 MEAN SQUARE 39383.900. 433.528 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ F VALUE 90.645 0.1992 0.1970 FROB>F 0.0001 TEH 0533143 DUP050034413 VARIABLE BP PARAMETER ESTIMATE STANDARD T POR EO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 INTERCEP ""l TIME 1 CASQ 1 ZHCl 1 SOUTH 1 SEXl 1 2.432027 -0.004704X4 0.966805 -0.166021 -0.022522 0.033558 0.128205 0.001108857 0.218260 0.016629 0.020711 0.015299 18.970 -4.242 4.430 -9.984 -1.087 2.193 VARIANCE VARIABLE BP TOLERANCE INFLATION INTERCEP TIME CASQ INC1 SOUTH SEXl 1 i 1 1 1 l 0.211230 0.195514 0.979491 0.560589 0.998565 0.000000 4.734173 5.114714 1.020938 1.783837 1.001437 - PROSE ITS 0.0001 0.0001 .0.0001 ' 0.0001 0.2770 0.0284 Whites 6-17 years BEP VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OP SOURCE BF SQUARES MODEL 4 856885 ERROR 1371 3380757 C TOTAL 1375 4237672 ROOT MSE 49.658110 DEP MEAN 2.428723 C.V. 2044.618 MEAN SQUARE 214221 2465.928 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ F VALUE 86.872 0.2022 0.1999 VARIABLE BF p a r a me t e r ESTIMATE STANDARD T POR HO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 INTERCEP TIME CASQ SERI INC! 1 2.091095 0.100643 1 -0.00431879 0.0009343327 1 0.939581 0.185208 1 0.186173 0.017582 1 -0.095289 0.019846 20.777 -4,622 5,073 10.589 -4.601 VARIABLE DP TOLERANCE VARIANCE INFLATION INTERCEP TIME CASQ SEXl INC1 1 1 1 1 1 0.388770 0.388712 0.993820 0.965447 0.000000 2.572214 2.572598 1.006218' 1.014768 PROBF 0.0001 PROB > III 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 TEH 0533144 DUP050034414 K White* 18-74 years DEP VARIABLE: LEAD SOM OF SOURCE DF SQUARES MODEL 5 5831485 ERROR 5063 13951108 C TOTAL 506$ 19782593 ROOT MSE 52.492878 DEP MEAN 2.558390 c.y. 2051.794 KEAN SQUARE 1166297 2755.502 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ F VALUE 423.261 0.2948 0.2941 * FR0B7F 0.0001 VARIABLE DF p a r a me t e r ESTIMATE STANDARD T FOR HO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 INTERCEF TIME CASQ SEX1 RURAL SOUTH 1 1.986593 0.079831 1 -0.00194133 0.0007102792 1 1.210007 0.139453 1 0.359713 0.009758612 1 -0.091780 0.012077 1 -0.020356 0.013786 24.885 -2.733 8.677 36.861 -7.599 -1.477 PR0B > iTl 0.0001 0.0063 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.1399 VARIANCE VARIABLE DF TOLERANCE INFLATION INTERCEP TIME CASQ SEXl RURAL SOUTH 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.205217 0.202679 0.999462 0.831929 0.499941 0.000000 4.872901 4.933917 1.000538 1.202026 2.000236 F statistics can be obtained by squaring the T for Ho: parameter 0. the tolerances on the time and GASQ variables indicate that the coefficents estimates should be reasonably stable. Percent drop calculations vsre done as previously described except time was included in the calculation so the "adjusted" intercept includes the coefficient of time multiplied by the mean V value of time over the Survey* Results of the percent drop calculations are given in Table 2: TEH 0533145 DUP050034415 TABLE 2* % Decrease in blond lead levels over the period of MHANES.1X from regression analysis which simultaneously includes tine, GASQ and the denographic coveriates in the node! Blood Lead Levels (ug/dl) Group Beginning of The Survey End of The Survey Overall (all races) Blacks Whites White :nal.es females *5-3 years 6-17 years 18-74 years 14.20 15.26 14.18 16.10 12.36 15.18 12.33 14.51 10.53 13.75 9.87 12.08 8.45 11.41 9.34 10.15 Difference 3.67 1.51 4.31 4.01 3.91 3.77 2.98 4.35 Percent Difference 25.9 9.9 30.4 24.9 31.6 24.8 24.2 30.0 The results in this table assume that the coefficient on the tine variable is completely unrelated to gasoline lead exposure, which is incorrect* Thus, the decreases shown in the table are underestimates of the reduction in blood lead levels which can be accounted for by gasoline lead exposure* TEH 0533146 DUP050034416 APPENDIX IV Dr. Pirkle's regressions using ell demographic variables and interactions (144 variables) for several different subgroups. TEH 0533147 DUP050034417 ?LU'P: BLACK L>r VARIABLE: LEAD SUM OF SOURCE f SQUARES MODEL 99 1262926 ERROR 1236 1927611 C TOTAL 1335 3190337 ROOT MSE 39.491211 DEE MEAN 2.687374 C.V. 1469.4 VARIABLE DF PARAMETER ESTIMATE 1NTERCEP 1 1.569498 CAS1 1 1.157311 MALE 1 0.379161 SHALL 1 0.217756 RURAL 1 -0.198785 KALESMAL 1 -0.026104 MALERURL 1 -0.023820 KALECHILD 1 -0.529322 MALETEEN 1 -0.278784 CENTER 1 0.0003791363 TEENRURL 1 -0.107607 KALECEN 1 -0.064762 SMALLCEN 1 -0.010155 CHILD 1 0.488679 TEEN 1 0.093321 CHILDSMAL 1 -0.069532 TEENSMAL 1 -0.132329 CHILDRURAL 1 -0.056682 CKJLiCEN 1 0.015876 TEENCEN 1 -0.0346B1 INCOME1 1 -0.136624 1 -0.210151 MALEIKCi 1 0.026953 NALEIJ.T2 1 0.064329 ' t 'a j; T.i 1 -0.015956 Cs.iLVII-Ti } --0.010c SO VLEIUNli 1 0.24J499 i:.L*?rs rr > 0.066690 SMALLIM 2 -0.051536 SMALL!N2 1 -0.121242 KVfcALlKl 1 -0.036375 RURAL1N2 1 -0.024201 1KC1CEN 1 0.026767 1NC2CEN i 0.006628698 KOKTHEST l 0.476641 KltCEST l 0.622332 SOUTH l 0.395211 MEAN SQUARE 12756.631 1559.556 F VALUE \ 8.180 PROS. 0.0001 Jt-SQUAEE ADJ R-SQ 0.3958 0.3474 < s t an d ar d T FOR HO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 PROBABILITY 0.299517 0.213861 0.094099 0.143277 0.140849 0.054564 0.075721 0.161320 0.096586 0.111755 0.082727 0.047760 0.062648 0.184889 0.111090 0.179626 0.107858 0.138476 0.094009 0.055393 0.129920 0.113685 0.065161 0.055027 0.172539 0.156266 0.100563 0.082979 0.075756 0.064341 0.106465 0.096656 0.069133 0.060839 0.289759 0.300421 0.260618 5.240 0.0001 5.412 0.0001 4.029 0.0001 1.520 0.1288 -1.411 . 0.1584 -0.478 0.6324 -0.315 0.7531 -3.281 0.0011 -2.828 0.0046 0.003 0.9973 -1.301 0.1936 -1.356 0.1752 -0.162 0.8713 2.643 0.0083 0.840 0.4010 -0.387 0.6988 -1.227 0.2201 -0.425 0.6708 0.169 0.8659 -0.626 0.5314 -1.067 0.2862 -1.849 0.0648 0.444 1.169 0.6569 0.2426 -0.092 0.9263 -0.067 0.9462 2.392 0.804 0.016? 0.42)7 -0.666 0.4931 -1.884 0.059* -0.335 0.7375 -0.250 0.8023 0.367 0.6987 0.109 0.9133 1.645 0.1002 2.072 0.0365 1.408 0.1593 TEH 0533148 DUP050034418 VINTER SPRING SUMMER KALEKORT CERTNORT CHILDNORT TEENKORT SMALNORT 1NC1NORT 1NC2NORT MIDWSPRI MIDVSUMM MALEMIDV CENIWIDW CHILDM1DW TEENMIDW SMALMIDW RURLM1DW INClMIDW INC2MIDW SOUTWINT SOUTSPRI MALESOUT CEKTSOUT CHILDSOUT TEENSOUT SMALSOUT RURLSOUT JRCISODT 1NC2SOUT MALEVIKT CEKTW1KT CHILDWIRT TEEKVINT SMALWIKT RURLWJNT 1KC1VINT IKC2VIKT MALtSPRI (Zirnill c e il o e * iii 7ZT.l'tTl riALfrKi lRCISiu 1KC2SPRI KALESUHM CEKTSUMM CH1LDSUKM TEEKSUMM SMALSUMM INCISUMM INC2SUMM 1 0,4263415 % 0.495277 * -0.106632 1 0.043927 i 0.134453 1 0.107879 i 0.078327 l -0.301621 i 0.145367 l 0.212100 i -0.354389 i -0.203159 i -0.059755 i 0.134658 i 0.079546 i 0.069377 i -0.530841 i 0.176901 i 0.143924 i 0.117009 l -0.627481 i -0.651255 i 0.0002081519 i 0.080915 i -0.00904985 i -0.092364 i -0.051022 i 0.264165 i 0.195572 i 0.260521 i 0.138065 i -0.031127 i -0.072653 i -0.040081 i -0.028598 i -0.00370968 l 0.0B6760 i 0.166958 l 0.035246 l 0,016754 l -0.023310 l -0.00654703 l -0.021462 l -0.032211 i 0.0757E1 l 0.138250 l -0.190023 i 0.035721 i -0.073693 i 0.414412 i 0.130787 i 0.206595 0,271423 0.259124 0*117593 0.064584 0.121699 0.155403 0.092038 0.149631 0.118824 0.105624 0.251730 0.145928 0.069298 0.123409 0.152442 0.103136 0.198522 0.166526 0.126462 0.112925 0.246508 0.244963 0.070400 0.090716 0.115524 0.076602 0.119590 0.121639 0.097286 0.086594 0.062492 0.094591 0.113395 0.066923 0.101737 0.097246 0.089421 0.061205 0.054763 0.087286 0,112193 0.063000 0.115539 0,061189 0.070859 0.074115 0.112505 0.124649 0.086355 0.134850 0.109373 0.069303 1.542 1.911 -0.907 0.519 1.105 0.694 0.851 -2,016 1.223 2.008 -1.408 -1.392 -0.669 1.091 0.522 0.673 -2,674 1.062 1.136 1.036 -2,545 -2.659 0.003 0.892 -0.078 <*1.206 -0.427 2,172 2.010 3.009 2.209 -0.329 --0.641 -0.582 -0.281 -0.038 0.970 2.327 0.644 0.192 -0.208 -0,104 -0,1F6 -0.397 1.126 1.665 -1.689 . 0.267 -0.834 3.073 1.196 2.313 0.1232 0.6367 0.3647 0.6036 0.3695 0.4877 0.3949 0.0440 0.2214 0.0449 0.1594 0.1641 0.5035 0.2754 0.6019 0.5013 0.0076 0.2863 0.2553 0.3003 0.0110 0.0079 0.9976 0.3726 0.9376 0.2261 0.6697 0.0301 0.0446 0.0027 0.0273 0.7422 0.5218 0.5610 0.7767 0.9696 0.3321 0.0201 0.5199 0.8476 0.6354 6.917? ; .5 (>.i *. w` * . * 0.7745 (J.A044 0.0022 0.2320 0,0209  *SB.Ifc'.. ~jy KORTSmi KA CH $K t o Tt e's k KA~CH~K1 MACH"K2 kaj t ej u MA1EK? xi'afto KI~Tk 2 TE"SM~N1 TEJSH~K2 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 i 1 1 1 -0.964632 . 0.031669 0.103594 0.148016 0.024598 -0.061137 -0.043276 0.049462 0.024001 -0.064581 0.016651 ow .*:* 6. V42 i>.' . 75 0 . 6 c. t jLr ( V.'ti 1*. 7 Ii*t *<>ltf4cV5 5(J. ;* `/l C-. 57 o. .. /v29 -3,535 0.223 1.1I-4 0.765 0.136 -0.625 -0.375 0.245 0.131 -0.509 0.149 0.0004 0.8234 0.2365 0,4446 0.6902 0.5323 0.7077 0.8064 0.8954 0*6108 0.8816 71 9 % j \ . 1 TEH 0533150 DUP050034420 WINTER SPRINC SUMMER NORTSUMM HALENORT CENTNDRT CHILDNORT TEENNORT SMALNORT RURLNORT INC1N0RT 1NC2N0RT HIDWSPRI HIDW'SUMM MALEMIDW CENIMIDW CHILDMIDW TEEKMIDW SMALM IDW RURIMIDW 1NC1M1DW INC2MIDW SOUTWIKX S0UTSPR1 MALESOUT CENTSOUT CHILDSOUT TEENSOUT SMALSOUT RUKLSOUT 1KC1SOVT INC2SOUT HALEWIST CEKTWINT CH1LDWINT TEEKW]NT s ::a H:ii:t RURLWIKT INClWJWr i rr?nr: UA* 1 El Kl CENTS ri:l e -r i TELNii'Rl SKALS1R1 RUlvLSPRI INCISPKI 1NC2SPRI MAUSUMM CENTSUMM CHILDSUMM TF.LKSUMM 1 0.072250 1 -0.022537 1 0.026203 1 -0.206052 1 0.029474 1 -0.222028 1 -0.030272 i -0.082969 i 0.027322 l -0.00649545 l -0.202480 i -0.00344828 l -0.077494 i -0.206893 l 0.029826 l 0.009520823 i -0.089157 i -0.231807 l -0.072570 i 0.040799 l -0.069253 l 0.001081804 i -0.050861 i -0.234995 l 0.043935 l 0.010368 i 0.015354 i -0.119736 i 0.046821 l 0.038014 2 -0.049147 1 0.003978589 2 0.011383 1 -0.123214 1 -0.032429 1 -0.047732 1 -0.038583 1 -0.071203 1 -0.034122 i 0.006974754 i 0.016736 i -0.062546 l -O.OP442761 2 -0.042029 1 0.106667 1 0.062518 I * -0.018978 2 0.012914 1 -0.00626316 2 -0.070491 2 0.011562 2 -0.00958338 0.065318 0.033106 0.075889 0.069557 0.025286 O.036796 0.057640 0.031406 0.057687 0.056696 0.046004 0.027095 0.067695 0.071B82 0.024756 0.037556 0.056432 0.030828 0.056481 0.056452 0.043283 0.026716 0.064906 0.066858 0.022379 0.033579 0.051574 0.027642 0.041455 0.041971 0.041114 0.023820 0.026336 0.044191 0.059499 0.032500 0.050880 0.047211 0.044513 0.028311 0.023487 0.035383 0.057499 0.029295 0.062940 0.062415 0.043885 0.025294 0.023101 0.035070 0.058181 0.028235 1.106 0.681 0.345 -2.962 1.166 -3.045 -0.525 -2.610 0.306 -0.115 -2.135 -0.127 -1.145 -2.878 0.801 0.253 -1.580 -4.276 -1.285 0.723 -1.600 0.040 -0.784 -2.019 1.963 0.309 0.298 -4.332 1.129 0.906 -1.195 0.167 0.432 -2.788 -0.545 -1.469 -0.758 -1.50B -0.767 0.317 0,713 -2.333 -0.077 -1.435 1.727 1.002 -0.432 0.511 -0.271 -2,010 0.199 -0.339 0*2687 0.4960 0.7299 0.0031 0.2438 0.0023 0,5995 0.0091 0.7641 0.9088 0.0328 0.8987 0.2523 0.0040 0.4232 0.6001 0.1142 0.0001 0.1989 0.4699 0.1096 0.9677 0.4333 0.0435 0.0497 0.7575 0.7659 0.0001 0.2587 0.3651 0.2320 0.8674 0.6656 0.0053 0.5857 0,1420 0.4483 0.1315 0.4434 0.751? 0.4711 0.0197 0.42H 0.1: i6.0843 0.3165 0.6654 0.6097 0,7863 0.0445 0.6425 0.7345 TEH 0533151 DUP050034421 n i; k mj e AM AILL: V nr 108 8260 .1AL 8366 ROOT USE 0fcr KEAK c.v. LEAD SUM OF SQUARES 8272981 17277357 25550339 45.734995 2.538587 1801.592 TABLE nr PARAMETER ESTIMATE :k c e p 1 l 1 ;. .l l 'sAL l l J.ALESMAL l KALERURL l MALECHILD l KALETEEN l CENTER l TEENRURL KALECEN SMALLCEN l l i CHILD i TEEN l CKILDSMAt l TEENSMAL l CH1LDRURAL 1 CHILDCEN i TEENCEN i 1NC0KE1 l 1NC0ME2 i KALEINC1 i KALE3K02 i CKILDIKCl l CF.1LD1KC2 i TEENIKCI l TELN2LC2 l SMALL!N1 l SMALL1K2 l RURALIN1 . i RURAL!K2 l 1KC1CEK 1 IUC2CEK l KORTKEST l ief es t SOUTH i l l 1.861071 1.415455 0.255598 -0.140986 -0.203938 0.050159 0.116655 -0.194754 -0.087073 ^ 0.083449 0.084469 -0.017072 0.021446 0.138525 -0.025281 0.041534 -0.044735 0.080281 0.045143 0.089890 -0.040668 -0.014213 -0.0059357 0.057814 0.255/4? 0.154 OH -0.069260 0.013903 0.012643 -0.035603 0.154589 0.039049 0.132514 0.042917 0.096080 0.066797 -0.016933 MEAN sq uar e 76601.678 2091.690 R-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ T VALUE 36.622 0.3236 0.3149 STANDARD T FOR BO : ERROR PARAMETERS 0.068688 0.067626 0.031371 0.057663 0.055650 0.022696 0.024195 0.079448 0.039284 0.045800 0.041362 0.019437 0.023737 0.060688 0.04292D 0.082256 0.040215 0.080033 0.047220 0.025040 0.057275 0.033287 0.030045 0.016310 0.163493 0.064273 0.115670 0.043925 0.040675 0.024223 0.045325 0.025746 0.035631 0.020733 0.062628 0.067568 0.066412 27.016 20.931 8.147 -2.445 -3.665 2.210 4.621 -2.451 -2.217 1.822 2.042 -0.878 0.903 1.717 -0.589 0.505 -1.112 1.003 0.956 3.590 -0.710 -0.427 -0.198 3.157 1.552 1.828 -C.572 0.317 0.316 -1.470 3.411 1.517 3.719 2.070 1.534 1.255 -0.285 PROS. 0.0001 PROBABILITY 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0145 0.0002 0.0271 0.0001 0.0143 0.0267 0.0685 0.0412 0.3798 0.3663 0.0861 0.5559 0.6136 0.2660 0.3158 0.3391 0.0003 0.4775 0.6694 0.8434 0.0016 0.1207 0.0675 0.4403 0.7516 0.7522 0.1417 0.0007 0.1294 0.0002 0.0385 0.1250 0.2095 0.7756 * TEH 0533152 OUP050034422 SMALSUMM RURLSUMM 1NC1SUMM 1KC2SUKH MA CH SM KA~CH~RU k a "t e ~s h MA"TE~RU KA~CH~N1 MAJttJfc HA~7E~HI MA TE~N2 Kl"SM~Nl Kl"*6M~K2 KJrRV~HI KfRU_N2 t e afii TE~SM~N2 TE~RU~Hi t e ""r iTh 2 1 0.173757 1 0.059308 I 0.129693 1 0.0002637513 1 -0..096733 1 -0.181780 1 -0.023007 1 -0.150470 1 0.0002409143 1 -0.076664 1 0.151758 1 -0.086023 1 -0.029524 1 --0.035226 1 -0.106785 1 -0.079677 1 C.225812 1 0.097939 1 0.190020 1 0.066925 V 0.032145 0.031926 0.047648 0.024663 0.092325 0.092464 0.047173 0.047573 0.134585 0.072863 0.079634 0.038365 0.168984 0.096984 0.176376 0.096792 0.117036 0.049672 0.117180 0.049796 5. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1 --(. -3. I -1.' l.: -2.:* - -0.3U -0.605 -0.623 1.9;; l.9v: 1.62: 1.344 ti t .cti: ( . ' C .irifiU 0.254! 0.0493 0.6250 0.0016 0.9986 0.2928 0.0567 0.0250 0.8613 0.7165 0.5449 0.4104 0.0537 0.0487 0.1049 0.1790 TEH 0533153 DUP050034423 . .rt'P: WHITE .5-5 VJ. ;EP VARIABLE: LEAD t: SOURCE OF BQ MODEL 66 ; r "*i ERROR 1808 vo C TOTAL 1874 6* *:i ROOT MSE 20. It ! ; * DEP MEAN 2,c <; C.V. 76.* . : ' t* VARIABLE DF PAKA-V" TLi EEii:;/;r. INTERCEP CAS1 MALE SMALL RURAL MALESMAL MALERURL CENTER MALECEN SMALLCEN INCOME1 XKCOME2 MALEINCI MALEIKC2 SMALLIN1 SKALLIK2 RURALXNl RURALIN2 INC1CEN IKC2CEN NORTHEST MIDWEST SOUTH WINTER FLINT- SUMMER NORlSlLI'i MALEKQLT CEKTKOKT SMALK0S7 RUPvLNORT IKC.1KORT 1NC2UORT mwsvn MIDUSUMM KALENIDr? CENI>;iDW 1 2.150-15 1 1.7/)^- 1 0*011-411 1 -0.21i0i 1 -0.417819 1 -0.08Pff>6 1 -0.044241 1 0.073248 1 0.058127 1 ,,0.015919 1 0.349739 1 0.217058 1 -0.043733 l -0.027133 1 0.00544908 1 -0.088971 1 -0.027566 1 -0.065513 l -0.013382 l 0.059640 1 -0.264813 1 -0.317344 1 -0.323845 1 -0.136515 1 -0.008868 1 -0.180035 1 0.082680 0.056975 1 -0.104848 1 0.159340 1 0.259615 1 -0.072784 1 -0.037284 1 0.079125 1 0.004819256 1 -0.039178 1 -0.0053324 4 MEAN SQUARE 3672.288 406.665 K-SQUARE ADJ R-SQ F VALUE 9.522 0.2579 0.2309 PROS. 0.0001 STANDARD T FOR HO : ERROR p a r a me t e r -o 0*284505 0.136878 0.059911 0.152564 0.140822 0.042942 0.044047 0.118362 0.041357 0.052757 0.131850 0.063971 0.059027 0.032084 0.085946 0.046066 0.098539 0.046904 0.076934 0.044589 0.279616 0.290673 0.279945 0.261380 0.086624 0.247694 0.247523 0.049665 0.677734 0.165176 0.160227 0.101995 0.053464 0.237824 0.245430 0.048723 0.081316 7.558 12.714 0.474 -1.388 -2.967 -1.883 -1.004 0.619 1.405 0.302 2.653 3.393 -0.741 -0.846 0.063 -1.931 -0.280 -1.397 -0.174 1.342 -0.947 -1.092 -1.157 -0.485 -0.793 -0.726 0.315 1.1/3 -1.:* t 0.9i5 1.620 -0.714 -0.697 0.333 0.020 -0.804 -0,066 PROBABILITY 0.0001 0.0001 0.6354 0.1652 0.0030 0.0598 0.3153 0.5361 0.1600 0.7629 0.0081 " 0.0007 0.4589 0.3978 0.9495 0.0536 0.7797 0.1627 0.8619 0.1798 0.3437 0.2751 0.2475 0.6276 0.4276 0.4678 0.7371* 0.2334 0.177< 0.354-f 0.1053 0.4756 0.4857 0,7394 0.9843 . 0.4214 0.9477 -r* 31 TEH 0533154 DUP050034424 BS/.IKIW l 0.201476 ttVFJJitW l 0.264298 tscunw l 1KC2KIPW % -0.031402 -0.023783 SOl'TWIKI l S0UI5PR1 i -0.067032 -0.061024 KALESOUT i 0.026146 CENTSOUT i -0.099703 SKALSOUT i 0.308536 RURLSOUX i 0.426829 1NC1SOUT i -0.030437 1NC2SOOT l -0.036069 KALEWINT i CENTWIKT i 0.056186 -0.214878 SMALW1NT l 0.083560 RURLWINT i 0.065455 1NC1WINX i -0.034858 INC2WINT i MALESPR1 i -0.042607 0.071176 CENTSPRI i -0.034542 SMALSPR1 i -0.035072 RURLSPRI i 0.095607 XNC1SPRI i -0.088370 2NC2SPR2 l -0.074288 KALESUMM i ^0.054334 CENTSUMM i 0.021747 SMALSUMM i 0.065194 RURLSUMM i 0.143107 XKC1SUMM i INC2SUMM i -0.092132 -0,010860 0.162814 0.159002 0.108717 0.051257 0.248405 0.248232 0.044670 0.073716 0.130419 0.129233 0.093703 0.048103 0.051362 0.109397 0.144593 0.133578 0.105963 0.055390 0.050382 0.089841 0.239052 0.236999 0.104561 0.054630 0.051224 0.084013 0.089326 0.081462 0.113091 0.055894 1.237 1.662 -0,289 -0.464 -0.270 -0.246 0.585 "1.353 2.366 3.303 -0.325 "0.750 1.094 "1.964 0.592 0.490 -0.329 -0.769 1.413 -0.384 "0.147 0.403 -0.845 -1.355 1.061 0.259 0.730 1,757 -0.815 -0.194 0.2161 0.0966 0.7727 0.6427 0.7872 0.8056 0.5584 0.1764 0.0181 0.0010 0.7454 0.4535 0.2741 0.0497 0.5541 0.6242 0.7422 0.4419 0.1579 0.7007 0.8834 0.6867 0.3981 0.1756 0.2890 0.7958 0.4656 0.0791 0.4154 0.8460 '4 TEH 05331 S3 . .1 DUP050034425 c r o u p: w h it e 6-17 YRS PEP VARIABLE: LEAP SUM OF SOURCE PF SQUARES MODEL 62 1395921 ERROR 1361 2994174 C TOTAL 1423 4390095 ROOT KSE 46.903955 PEP MEAN 2.431224 C.V, 1929.232 v a r ia b l e PF PARAMETER ESTIMATE XNTERCEP CAS1 MALE SMALL RURAL HALESMAL MALERURL CENTER MALECEN SMALLCEN INCOME1 IKCOME2 KALEINC! KALE1NC2 SKALL1K1 SMALL!K2 RURAL!N1 RURALIK2 1KC2CEK NORTHEST MIDWEST SOUTH WJKTEk S'riw .EttOEP. Uv'^stnc-: k ;.ie !s O-:t CLMNOET SKALK0K7 RURLNORT JNC2NORT K1DWSPRI M1DUSUKM MALEM1DW CENTKJDW SHALW1DW RUKLMIDW 1 1.713816 1 1.466824 l Cl. 179940 1 -0.355259 1 -0.252923 1 -0.023406 1 -0.044657 1 0.053860 1 -0.00307653 1 ^0.097307 1 -0.056082 1 -0.00561208 1 (0.169580 1 HO.022515 1 D.140008 1 0.094677 1 0.056783 1 0.144304 1 0.099926 1 0.041213 1 -0.022143 1 -0.00631478 1 0.228072 1 0.044945 1 0.359034 1 -0.437736 1 0.011491 1 -0.027269 1 0.225095 1 0.134203 1 0.050902 1 -0.335308 1 -0.524376 1 -0.027479 1 0.283439 1 0.218427 1 0.319026 MEAN Sq u a r e 22514.852 2199.981 R-SQUARE APJ R-SQ F VALUE 10.234 0.3180 0.2669 STANDARD T FOR NO: ERROR PARAMETERS 0.183622 0.153307 0.064764 0.153702 0.149201 0.047833 0.046512 0.115630 0.046380 0.061253 0.123554 0.070181 0.077316 0.035572 0.125212 0.051918 0.131841 0.051304 0.048187 0.172901 0.183430 0.178939 0.177302 0.071172 0.186216 0.176883 0.056964 0.0894Si 0.157869 0.154874 0.059107 0.169139 0.179830 0.055599 0.089030 0.153896 0.153089 9.333 9.568 2.778 -2.311 -1.695 -0.489 -0.921 0.466 -0.066 1.589 -0.454 -0,080 2.193 -0.633 1.118 1.824 0.431 2.813 2.074 0.238 -0.121 -0.035 1.286 0.632 1.628 -2.475 0.702 -0.51*5 1.426 0.667 0.661 -1.982 -2.916 -0,494 3.164 1.419 2.084 PROB. 0.0001 pr o babil it y 0.0001 0.0001 0.0055 0.0216 0.0903 0.6247 0.3575 0.6414 0.9471 0.1124 0.6500 0.9363 0.0285 0.5269 0.2637 0.0664 0.6668 0.0050 0.0383 0.8116 0,9039 0.9719 0.1985 0.5276 0.65 : c .m: : :: ( 0.154! 0.311.4 0.3853 0.0476 0.0036 0.621? 0.0015 0.156** 0.03/- . iiy-ti 1KC2M1UV SOU7V1NT SOUTSPRI MALESOUT CENTSOUT SMALSOUT RURLSOUT INCISOUT INC2SOUT NALEW2 NT CEKTWIHT SKALW1KT RURLWINT 1NC1WINT INC2K1KT HALESPR1 CENTSPRI SMALSPRI RURLSPR1 IKC2SPRI KALESUMM CENXSWH SNALSUMM RURLSUMM INC1SUMM IKC2SUMM 1 -0.031541 1 -0.327255 I -0.466160 1 -0.00154948 1 0.053009 1 0.187229 1 0.265537 1 0.213808 1 -0.040070 1 -0.032774 1 -0.077359 1 0.069341 1 -0.051038 1 -0.136775 1 -0.023983 I 0.109438 X -0.095672 X 0.240451 1 0.127647 1 -0.020210 1 0.067517 X -0.315822 1 0.136664 1 -0.058176 1 0.182444 1 -0.047203 0.0 . 0.) 0.1 > o.< o.t . 0.0. v O.v; O.t i.f ? 0.0: ` 0.1 3 0 .1-* . *. 6.1/.. ;f 0.095-'?; 0.062575 0.053*' '( 0.09;?;: 0.16^415 0.1651*S 0.055(36 0.051luf 0.090061: 0.071886 0,068578 0.113485 0.055359 -0.5*2 -1.1 n -2.(51 -o.ori 0.6' 5 1.346 1.953 2.101 -0.763 -0.553 -0.692 6.469 -0.362 -1.434 -0.386 2.048 -1.031 1.462 0.772 -0.363 1.320 -3.506 1.901 -0.848 1.608 -0.653 0.5173 0.05U 0.0066 0.5754 0.5035 0.1786 0,0510 0.0359 0.4455 0.5801 0.4893 0.6394 0,7174 0.1519 0.6997 0.0408 0.3028 0.1438 0.4400 0.7165 0.1872 0.0005 0.0575 0.3964 0.1081 0.3940 34 TEH 0533157 DUP050034427 IV I J*. 11-74 W;., A! UK: LLAD SUM OF }Y SQUARES a 66 6384795 5 or* 1322*4211 5Pf5* 19639005 M ]USE 51*47089! MEAN 2.562761 ' ,v. 2008.4 BLE DF PARAMETER ESTIMATE :tP c W / 'AL KA: . r.URL c e k :e r MALECEN SMALLCEN INCOME! IKC0ME2 M/.LE1RC1 .`JULEXRCl SKALLINl SKALLIK2 R'JRALINl RURALIN2 1KC1CEN 2KC2CEK KORTHEST MfWEST LOUTH V 2 *:t e r . * v i r v ..-:ek K.lSUKM : rrcoKT J 1NORT s ma l n o r t h. iXIiORT JKClNORT 1KC2NORT KID'wSPRI mir n s u mm l 1.910950 I 1.394463 1 0.260899 1 -0.118779 1 -0.182339 1 0.059343 1 0.118612 I 0.112532 1 -0.020366 1 .0.011462 i -0.056697 l -0.022510 i -0.00136907 l 0.061235 l 0.020275 l -0.044873 l C.187979 1 0.031516 l 0.161479 l 0.034510 l 0.075717 ! 0.067698 ! -0.067067 1 -0.00471145 1 -0.044426 1 -0.052296 1 -0.158240 1 0.030379 1 -0.143573 1 -0.013424 1 -0.031335 1 -0.082460 l -0.00955633 1 -0.020408 I -0,135636 1 0.034427 ! -0.075055 MEAN SQUARE 96739.311 2649.253 R-SQUARE AM R-SQ F VALUE 36.516 0.3251 0.3162 STANDARD T TOR HO: ERROR PARAMETER-0 0.085375 0.088466 0.039438 0.073362 0.070647 0.026003 0.028026 0.058218 0.025151 0.030324 0.069552 0.042014 0.033975 0.020676 0.046289 0.027843 0.052209 0.029877 0.043932 0.026850 0.077586 0.083979 0.083539 0.081411 0.042249 0.0V6676 0.086552 0.033260 0.047432 0.0744 77 0.073658 0.060253 0.035628 0.086241 0.091935 0.032604 0.048651 22.383 15.763 6.615 -1.619 -2.581 2.282 4.232 1.933 -0.810 0.376 -0.615 -0.536 -0.040 2.962 0.438 -1.612 3.601 1.055 3.676 1.285 0.976 0.806 -0.803 -0.056 -1,052 -0.541 -1.787 0.913 -2.027 -0.160 -0.425 -1.369 -0.267 -0.237 -1.475 1,056 -1.536 PROB. 0.0001 PROBABILITY 0.0001 o.oooi 0.0001 0.1056 0.0099 0.0225 0.0001 0.0533 0.4181 0.7055 , 0.4150 0.5921 0.9679 0.0031 0.6614 0.1071 0.0003 0.2915 0.0002 0.1968 0.3292 0.4202 0.4221 0.9539 0.2931 0.5586 0.M40 0.3-.11 0.002:5 0.t570 0.6706 0.1712 0,7897 * 0.6130 0.1402 0.2911 0,1245 TEH 0533158 DUP050034428 SKALMIDW RURimOW INC1HIDW 1NC2MIDW S0UTW1KT SOUTSPRI HALESOUT CENTSOUT SKALSOUT RURLSOUT 1KC1S0UT 3KC2SOUT HALEWINT CENTWIKT SMALWINT RURLW1KT INC1VINT INC2WXKT MALESPR1 CENTSPR1 SMALSPRI r ur l spr i INC1SPR1 INC2SPR1 MALESUMM CEKTSUMM SMALSUKM RURLEUMM XNC1SUMK INC2SUXM 1 -0.129370 1 -0.020806 1 -0.072313 X 0.017238 I 0.032042 1 -0.043608 1 0.057262 X -0.00832775 1 0.033007 1 -0.022928 1 -0.077221 l 0.015699 1 0.007393266 1 -0.122041 l -0.049176 1 -0.041811 1 -0.017195 1 0.019249 1 -0.019747 1 -0.083469 1 0.079218 1 0.041212 1 -0.024324 1 0.029570 1 *-0.033426 1 -0.013734 1 0,, 185941 1 0.085338 i 0.130681 i 0.012985 0.073235 0.073647 0.052523 0.035532 0.081392 0.083951 0.029594 0.043789 0.051390 0.052860 0.051156 0.031604 0.034845 0.056611 0.065339 0.061230 0.056281 0.037597 0.030720 0.044826 . 0.079741 0.078800 0.054527 0.033173 0.030349 0.044686 0.041740 0.042103 0.059047 0.032270 *1.767 -0.263 -1.377 0.485 0.394 *0.519 1.935 *0.190 0.642 -0.434 -1.510 0.497 0.212 -2.156 -0.753 . -0.683 -0.306 0.512 -0.643 -1.863 0.993 0.523 -0.446 0.891 -1.101 -0.307 4.455 2.027 2.213 0.402 0.0774 0.777C 0.1666 0.6276 0.6536 0.6035 0.0531 0.8492 0.5207 0.6645 0.1312 0.6194 0.8320 0.0311 0.4517 0.4947 0.7600 0.6087 0.5204 0.0626 0.3205 0.6010 0.6555 0.3728 0.2708 0.7586 0.0001 0.0427 0.0269 0.6874