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Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/5/2017 12:26:46 PM cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov; rochelle. corneiro (rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov) [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov]; Christine Diaz (Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com) [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com] Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary [Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma Special #25
Please see latest update on Irma. Upgraded to eat 5.
Bob
Robert Nadeau, CEM Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division FEMA Office of External Affairs 500 C St. SW Washington D.C. 20472. Desk 202-212-5193
Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov
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From: Hersey, Tiffany Sent: Tuesday, September 05, 2017 8:17 AM To: Green, Matthew <Matthew.Green@fema.dhs.gov>; HLT <HLT@fema.dhs.gov> Subject: Hurricane Irma Special #25
...IRMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... At 8am AST, Hurricane Irma was located 270 miles east of Antigua with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and a minimum central pressure of 929 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight.
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Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 Hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane Warning * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
Storm Surge - Heights above ground * U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix - 7 to 11 ft * Northern coast of Puerto Rico - 2 to 4 ft * Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix - 1 to 2 ft
Rainfall Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
W Palm Beach, FL 8%
Miami, FL
14%
Key West, FL
21%
Ft Myers, FL
8%
Ponce, PR
13%
Aguadilla, PR
22%
San Juan, PR
35%
Vieques, PR
33%
Saint Thomas, VI 57%
Saint Croix, VI
20%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Orlando, FL
19%
Cocoa Beach, FL 20%
W Palm Beach, FL 41%
Miami, FL
53%
Key West, FL
52%
Ft Myers, FL
39%
Tampa, FL
22%
Ponce, PR
64%
Aguadilla, PR
73%
San Juan, PR
86%
Vieques, PR
87%
Saint Thomas, VI 95%
Saint Croix, VI
81%
Hurricane Irma Graphics
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SSI
Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
30N
2SN
P
2 AM Frl
D
;2 AM Thu
20 H
2 AM Sun
O
2PM Wed
2 AM Sat'
I5N
SOW
85W
SOW
Hurricane Irma
Tuesday September 05, 2017 8 AM AST Advisory* 25 NWS National Hurricane Center
75W
70W
65W
Current information: x
Center location 16.7 N 57.7 W Maximum sustained wind 175 mph Movement W at 14 mph
60W
55W
SOW
Forecast pcsillons:
Tropical Cyei pne O Post/Potectiai TC Sustained winds : D <39 mph $ 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph Ml > 110 mph
P o te n tia l tra ck area:
Watches:
* 3
Pay 4 5
M l meant;
Imp itro
W a rn in g s:
H u r -
IB Son Sim
C u r re n t wind extent:
ifurrican TropStm
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_____
Hurricane Irma
Tue. Sep. 5,2017 Sam AST
Advisory 25
i
___
Storm Location & Wind Speed (knots)
0*34 34-63
FIve-dey chance of receiving sustained 34+ knot (38+ mph) winds 5 10 20 30 40 50 m 70 00 90 100 %
ffro@ fem a.dhs.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 051159 TCPAT1
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Special Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
...IRMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION...16.7N 51.1W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH... 22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ... 929 M B ...27.44 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti and a Tropical Storm Watch from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-stormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, along with Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the distinct eye center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds
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have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The latest estimated minimum central pressure from aircraft data is 929 mb (27.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a danger ous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shor eline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the sur ge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-rel ated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For informa tion specific to your area, please see products issued by your loca 1 National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic by early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Brown
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