Document qmOp9vgamxX4V7mpZL7xgxkqG

% The Consumer Looks at Lead SU Ql mk ma x a mp wnnw or m Luo iMtimti Amcuim: As rrpriirntativf of thr lewd consuming indue* try. I want to <iprt my pleasure at being invited tit appear before you. I have been asked to talk to sou shout (rad as a consumer sees It Also, It was fch by your program chairman that some comment* by a tvpkal lead consumer on the Filey Crwnrnh tm Report would be of interest .4a rttwatboc at the hroad trends la lend ooa> umpOop over tbr past twenty-five years shows a ir*Jv inane in (Usl lead dmsnd. Without tak ing mto account metal for the stockpile, domestic Wad consumption has inemm) from an average fci* under hOO.OOO tuns In thr lftXTi to over 1400,000 w the 1950*1. R While this inctvaie is substantial, its greatest dg> lin tu4 to the statistics thrmsrivta, but In thr play of nrnomic forces that accounts for them. Am commodity can find a place In our economic sv <rm only if ft has economic usefulnraa. Lead for Urmrt. lead for gasufme, lead for jnotregion agAtfift thr rlnzamts. lead M a cmstruction mate* nl-thr*r are only a few of die many applications th*t Hitr brm found fur Wad. which have demon* strsted proven economic uahlona fba MaonMf af Tafroafhyi M I do ant feel qualified to discuss in detail the *e> fulnrsa of other Uacheuosuming products, but t can trC vou a little about what trtiartfayl Wad has come lo taraa to our national economy. 1 rnmrntmmmmmmm ; LlAl6<, 3l ' la dm thirty year* since it wot war >m--s laurjs introduced, tetn*<byi lead has come to be used 'uWw over 953 of all motor and aviatioa gasolines, because of this fact tetraethyl Wad has grown to become the second largest consumer of metallic lead In the country. There was a reason for thb~a sound reason, you can be sum. Tetraethyl Wad has demnostrstad Its ccooomic usefulness in a widening orbit to the ad industry and in turn to the motoring public And by making possible gasoline* of ncctahtly higher antiknock quslity, tetnedd lead has contributed substantially to the dramatic transportation gain* of recent decade* .4s technologists to the of and automotive indue* trirs know, higher octane gasolines perm* (ha de sign of automobile engine* which wfll deliver more power foe the same fuel consumption or delta* the aame power for leas fur] consumption. Utilisation of that fundamental principle has been primarily reqamuble fur the thrilling nrtoautivc progress of the past genuatioo. Betwewi 1930 and 1950, the average power of automobile engines increased from less than 75 to almost 120 horsepower. Mdrs per gaflao increased 901 to that time. Tan mdc* per giUou, which allows for the increase to average ca^^ weight* increased 481 A Chafe llflrffa* W fnpilt Today, simply by taking the knock out of pao> hue. tetraethyl lewd sets to motion a chain unction of prugicn in which our modern automotive econ omy operates rfidraih, toe consumption of petite leum and other natural resources k conserved, and substantial eronomic benefit* accrue to thr motor ing public. A recent study of tbr ecnmaito value of trtre- etfcv 1 Wad showed that its use to 1950 reduced effec tive gasoline consumption by at least JOJ--or an estimated four bullion gallons. In other words, with the aid of tetraethyl Wad. thr American car owner and business man, fanner and trucker iff-rd * four bdlioa gallons Ins gasolme than would other* t - i wrwniawi.. % mMm saurianIW* iM be the c am. At tha prevailing Mode* i Cnccs for gax>linr, (hat rrprcnoted a saving totfaa ^wricao public of over one billioo doflan on its annual gasoline bilL Stated another wav, the use of prrhapt 105,000 tons of metallic Wad was su to save tone 12 million too* of gasoiina. THrwrtkyi J#nff /4<jr m f--parsanl ri ar MWNMilr li/a aa4 fry i! trid+ipr+md n amaanl / ease aAwrd energy rwai wwrrid. TkU stfiaf /ar nntiasfghe ifre ra> warrr adar / tfre Umd thmt la maiaaisf la fca w/marii ffc# Oioftgfrtf Nohte* W M Dwwrf 1 have mentioned these fsrti about HtmAyl Wad as an example of a uae for metallic lead that lias shown increasing economic usefutoeaa. The valise f other uses can be cimiUriy demonstrated. Indeed, the entire trend of Wad consumption in rrcrat dec ade* has been dictated primarily by the wurak usefulness of the products made from It Bach in 19^y. the fi\e Wading uses of Wad mere for <ablr cwftujg*. batteries, white Wad. building material and ammunition. But ngni&cantly, by 1950 three othrr usrs-trtnctlni lend, solder and oxide* for \*-% other than battrriea-moved into the first he, tI The compariaoos illustrate some cf thr trAnoiogij I developments that base affected lend demand. Thrv demonstrate how lead has become more sub uabW for some products, Ires valuable for others. While Wad has scored impressive gains in some cos* sumptkw) catrgorin. its has lost ground in other durctws due to the increased competition of other malmals. Titanium in paints, polyethylene plastics and aluminum in cable coverings, and aluminum in fad are mmr of the mafne competitors cf lead. N<*withstading the competition and without regard to the relative petitions cf various use* cf Wad. the fact rrmaini that for the long pull there b nm reason to believe that the use of lead will ennttoue to increase. \Mwt then k the long term outlook? Because k veprv rad dw only imupthf*v j iw uy.ii#wi^i^wgwp!UipupB effort made to lock into thr future of our commoditv and energy resources, the Pt> iidiot's Materials PuF fcy Cummiwkai Report, nanettmrs called the Films Report, has now supplanted the wril-known crystaT hall far pvugwrtkuting what is to come. Without question, the aims and purposes of the Palcy study are most budabW A factual knowledge of the U, S. raw materials position, and of production and coe* sumption trends for thr next quarter century, should prme to be cf ioestiniable value to planning national policy. In this nanretin, a great number of ks rrcommendations for legislation to give industry relief from taxes and other oppressive government regulation*, as well as aid to exploration and devnfr opmrnt work, show that the Cacnmiaaian had a real pup of the prohltma abend. It Is unfortunate, however, that some of the nsto risk projections contained to the fsky Report have been mistaken for fiat pi rlntiian to some quarters. Indeed, thr Cnmmlmou kvff. to a perfacr to ka commodity analyses, carrfuOy pointed out: "TVu propetions do not predict hmr muck of each sato rial wdl actually be available and consumed. In stead they are as estimate of what might di wmirri f relative priors cf various materials rJK mum thr mmr as to nuh 1950, which they are d mw utlilriy to da Moreover, thrnr projections asanenr no unforeseeable new uses, substitutions, or treto sckpai improvements. They are intended only as s starting point to thr amhrris of prospective supplydmvsnd rriationahtpt and give only a rough meas ure of magnitude.* It is thnr very mnnAntwn. cited to the Paler firpuri, uhich make k an difficult to attempt a longrange forecasting cf Wad demand with any degree f accuracy. A tunple rorchaaicaJ extrapolation of ranting uses dnei oat give the answer. Social changes, technological toprovetarnta, and cooap^ titim between materials wdl dictate the future for any commodity. IBuatrative f this is the projection involving stor* 4 USPtowmRpiiiPP MUifgpatojf: ,s p , i i M | . m u i in iiii ii,iiim w j m j u . im w iu ii im mui ip i ln ji i .h i riMKMMU *e batteries. Fir this ma^uc u m, tba Paley Cam- Cmiion f>n>jrct* *n increasr In lead cunmmptioo frTn 416,000 tons in 1950 to 707,000 too* fo 1975. And hi making that pn>)r<1k)a, the Cnmmiadon, in line with it* stated ohyctive, assumed the same nrrage battery life in 1973 a* in JSflflL As a practical mattrr. wbfW thr average battery's bfc right now i* only two yean, many battery marae facturm frel that thry can produce a battrry which can hr guaranteed for three vrmrs' mice. In another direction, the battery companies have achieved a marked reduction in average lead content prr battmr from year* ago, and they are confident a further substantial dKrraae will be teen in the yean ahead. Accordingly, if we assume an average battery life of 2b yean by 1973. instead id thr pri rent two yeara, and tf we taunr a reduction in average lead content per batten from 23 pound* to 20 pounds, which aha terms cmmiHif, it it possible to show a 1975 de mand for lewd in thr haitrry field that is aomr 200.000 lint lest than that luted fay the Paley fntnmisaion. Long t;*go Fomcoato fcwpinfifl Ufects oo lead raoaimptioe might be etplond ifrom a technological standpoint oa numerous other n m! products. Add to this thr important infitmr ' raw material price on end product uar. and ft fa >parrnt why a 25-year firrcut for lead drmaad cannot accurately he madr. AQ that can be door is lo indicate the grurrsl trend, whrtbrr it be for lead or anv otlier important commodity. We are therefore not greatly cuxrnird with the fact that thr Paley Commission Rrpurt furreasts a demand irf 1.350000 ton* k> 1U7S. The actual drmaud will he influenced by a number of factors, particularly of a technologies) nature, which are not tiuw apparent. Mornn rr. the pner which cormimers will be mpnrrd to pay for lead in thr future will hair a substantial branng on the vulusnr of ck-mand. fVxloctinn capacity a)o will be mBuencrd to a J much greater rxtrut than is contemplated h the Paley Report by thr price of the commuchly. There is little doubt in our minds but what the normal SPp-wwpsaBHP LI A16433 'rnitimt. satMHaaiiii economic forews will sok at all tea in tha flNKa tmn of bringing the demand and supply into balance#^ Much was said in the Paley Report about the nee^p fie planned substitutions of abundant commodities fie scarce commodities to insure ptu|xr balances hi thr future. There can be no dental of the fact that under certain circumstances this may be both nee* euary and desirable, but there if certainly no evi dence that H is needed in lead, either at ynmf or in the foreseeable future. Fvtvra Uod SvppfJoa Adaqna+i As a substantial consumer of metallic lewd, ww Hate a real and serious interest in the long term outlook f<* supplier We, of course, have no infer- mahon not generally kiaiwa in industry about future productton possibilities. but we have tried to coos* pile such information as is available io order to swurr ourarhet that there is a sufficient potmtial productive capacity to meet aoy rcwaonable increase m the demand for lead. We brlieve that thr potential at onh rants, but we are csaifidmt that adequate supplies will be forthcoming in thr future to meet all essential nerds. We have expanded our manu facturing capacity and are gearing our present op mtaira and future plan* with the full wnfidrtK^^ Hut Hus prediction will hr a nrrrit owe. Regardless of what we mav think if the long rmngHw tffrtknk for lewd, we still hair thr problems that are with us tndav. and are likely to continue In the near future. Thr recent hatan of bwd has been awr rtf muroitg det and h*gh pnav followed by long supply and tuncurrrwt low price*. Wc have son hkrd this uhutva but or have come lo be- that it H the "nature tf the beast." We con- uimm amid rather have low priced Irod than n> cevsnrh high |vaed lead, but what aouid be best he Ktb owtvumm ami pndmen would be for the Mtpply at lead tu rrmam ra balance and thr prire lo he risasabh constant at a In el where both the (UMuram and producers can make a profit We ate aril aware of the situation as it exists today, and we certainly aren't happy to find our friends on the WWPSW Pi c rmmrntmmm _4Uk ^i-mdoction ddr of thr badness ta a poaitioa whom | Vi; pmfitj /r- suhstantully rrdixt-d, tf not d o d ^J *tr*ff We muit not fwgrt, howfNfr, that busret U*h here and abruad who are out now in the market arr thr same prple wboae buying actfvibes made possible the highly profitable markets of IMS end So lung u lead maintain* its pnniit poattkm io the nxmnuc nrtrm, wp can br sure that three buy'm will be hack in the marks* again in Che near fstara UnpCKtt Eu mHo I N Coefhtvtd Growth If we agree that the general trend In lend demand n upward, and that the present darkening in the owrlrt n a trmptrary one, then It must be tdaiittrd that this cuutiin will continue to fntkw the rapetV mef d the past ameral >tta and inraia a net in* peter of lead. Oantumm must late this fact and male thru plans acrnrdmgfy. WTuir all t'. S coa* summ h*>e a full appreciation of tftse dranUilT (i krrpu*g thr Ammu mining industry strong ther osia also accept the rrsputtsibdjfY for nxua* aging and supporting thr foreign production of Vend, spa which they must nuw m pail drpod. It thmr^rr Inflows that am Ctnrmmrot artkn that d flr thr pflat of dmoumgmg unports and seducing espsmmn trf (amp nmurg pnyrrtm Is sub* from a consumer standpoint. .V an end inr of Irad. trtnrOnl lend has a potrs tul lor contiffutug growth, but that pofautal wil he rralurd unK so long as tt fHmam Its rcramnslr v alur. and usK *u lung as thrrr b su&rieot nuGallic Wad aiaiUhle to mslr pmsitdr the msmdacture af jl! tie trtrartKs 1 lr\*d nmltd bs thr pHrnlmm he du\tiy If (nf am rrsm tetraethyl insd cannot he uu:W* m Mifhomt quantities. nr if the cost Is pushed up hr*ra) rf rvMi)K bmit by thr high prxr of (hr metal (nan which ft is made, it will luar its (co iHatuc usefulness to thr industry It enn The war t an be wnd fir almost atn nd product c4 least At thr (wild of thii paper wr undertook to <nm mrot on the filrt Report. Wr attempted to point nut that, in our opinion, thr report was oMffrr opti 7 * I 41 6A34