Document q3jQ3nO4mZkdQrmzk4NBLr8Qk

FILE NAME: Eternit (ETER) DATE: 1978 Nov 27 DOC#: ETER111 DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION: Meeting Minutes - Asbestos Fibre 27 U> N o v e m b e r 1 0 7 S ,, :n c , f i >:-:t i .u . A s b n t n ,t T' t lire K'< I o ; i " i ! ` ' -r t i il ~ til . ; t! :1 r . ; Pte. , - Phn I - -i- M i U s on : i i n w c i o h o r 10 <? P r o s e n t ; D r . M. G m r , E t e r n i t ( E v i c s c r l a n d ) M r . E , do IVrviyn, S l o f - n l t ( B o l g l u m )' M r . P . A u d o t i i r t , h. 1r.r"n;i t [ r V o n c e ) Mr. It. H o r n e r, Erei-r.i l ( S v ltv v o r la n d ) Mr. J . Hcnartl, S t . Sotnijn-Pont-a-M ousson M r . C , K , K f t v t o i l , TAM, Mr . A. U e l s o i i , TM Mr, J . D. F r o c g a t t , T & i A p l o f j i c s w e r e r e c e i v e d f r o m Mir. J . C u v e l i - c r (.jvtcrni t , F r a n c o ) and M r. P. Sire I fe n s t,en ( S t . G o b a i n - P o n t --n - M o u s s o n ) who w i r e U n a b l e t o a t t e n d , f / m t . The A s b e -ttp s M a r k e t i n 1978 I t vas reported th a t, g e n e r a lly ., the e x c e s s iv e sto c k s o f a s b e s t o s f i b r e a c c u m u l a t e d d u r i n g 1977 a nd t h e e a r l y p a r t o f 1978 wore d e c l i n i n g somewhat., C u t t h e y v e r o s t i l l l i t t l e c h a n g e d i n t e r m s o f i.ibn-Eli-, 5 ' u s a g e . T h i s r e f l e c t e d b a s i c a l l y s la c k demand f o r a s b e s to s p r o d u c t s . Demand f o r f i b r e i n t,ho USA i s c u r r e n t l y a t a r e a s o n a b l e l e v e l . In Europe-, However, it remains p o o r . I t h as been f u f t h r d e p r e s s e d b y the= v e a k r . e.-ss o f e x p o r t s o f a s b e s t o s ' c e m e n t f r o m c o u n t r i e s s u c h -as. I l i l y a n d - S p a i n ( a n d t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m ) to- tire M i d d l e , E:R* t , N o r t h A f r i c a a n d N i g e r i a , o v i 11 g to s l a c k e n i n g d e m a n d and t h o d e v e l o p m e n t o f l o c a l p r d u c t on . The f a r Hast; ( c * c 1 tjd.ing' Ja p a ii) h a s b e e n the b e s t r e g i o n f o r f i b r e demand, i n 197 & , w h i l e S o u t h a n d C e n t r a l Amerric n h a v e a l s o b e e n f a i r i n r e l a t i v e t e r m s . S a l e s o f t e x t i l e f i b r e h a v e betf>n e s p e c i a l l y d e p r e s s e d , and m i n e p r o f i t s o n t l i . e s a- g r a d e s baive b e e n p o o r . T h i s h a s m e a n t o' c r e a t e r r e l u c t a n c e by t h e minies to g i v e d i s c o u n t s on t i i o i r p r i c e s f o r Group h anti 5 F ib ro m , For w hich demand h as been l e s s d e p r e s s e d . A d e m a n d f o r jpremluai G r o u p It f i b r e s i s now d e v e l o p i n g i n E a s t E u ro p e a n ca^rk-ols w h ich t h e USSR has been u n ab le to s a t i s f y , p a r t l y becatiuo o f m i l l c l o s u r e s . ThLs h a s had the e f f e c t o f b o l s t c r i i n g the l y o l o f w o rld demand f o r p r e m i u m a s b e s t o o --c e m e n t F i b ' j ' osi f r o m w e s t e r n s o u r c e s . I 1 { - 2- 7i i r pattern of QAHA !*liipmon Ii- o l` fibre in 197y i,:`s orriille. It linn -linen nffc:ti-d by ntrike.'i at both QAMA aird nnn-i'AMA minus, ;uiti nine by i<poal.il f'acinr.i nrisinc nt ; 111<J1v lihm 1 iiiincfi. It wan a b o thoughc tlmt- stocks linii tu'cn brought (tiw.'i from Ihft high level ii oxisl Lii." fit tile bcjilntJnf; of llio year, Tnc-rc linn lif'Pi) heavy fliscotin ting at times durln;; 197<3 - for example, by Lake and A.`ben Los Curponiion, 2 , A slio-iin-: Kibje Proihiot ofi Oiillmdi j ------------ ------------- *"----------- I It was acrbctl tli.it the detailed fl/nircs jirepnrcd by Mr. Lbr-mr on n inino-by-mine basin /;av'ii n r.rinl-ra 1ly Line indicn tlsni of the present find likely future fibre pro-due tioii ituatian.. Currently, the closure of tho Clinton mine in an inpor'aujt fact r,r, th.c; future of Ko.qds n o o p s Austral inn nine [thith id stlJl .-.upp)y lr,/.;) is looking very unccrl ,iin; but this is rot important in terms of Croup b fibre. A n o t h e r s h o r t - t e r m u n c e r t a i n t y c o n c e r n s A C L * p A s b e s t o s SI 111 / Nordeiiham operation s.. I t seemed p o s s i b l e the ACL n ig h t co t r o - o p c - h th e A s b e s t o s I f i l l n i n e a f t e r fcjje c i i f r c n t w i n t e r i h u t - d ov n. The d e c i s i o n c o u ld h in g e on w h e th e r A C L ' s pro po sed [ i c e p r c i n j u;:i o n G r o u p s M anti 5" h o l d s ; i f i ' t d o e s n o t - , t h e x- --t p c u i n g o f A s b e s t o s H i l l m i g h t n o t bo j u s t i f i e d . X e a m f l i U c , fi'Airo fr o m Hordcnham i s r o g ii r d e d a s v e r y e x p e n s i v e , even i n V<est G e r m a n y i t s e l f . I t was. s a i d t h a t i t c o s t s a i m o s t a s nn-rk to ship- f i b r e to o t h e r E u r o p e a n p o r t s from Nordenham as fr-on . Canada. In tlic longer term the main question marks over fibre reduction concerned supplies from Rhodesia and the prospects for Slew mines in Canada and elsewhere. Mr. Dorner's projections; envisaged a doubling of output - to 220,000 short tons per annum - at tho Rhodesian -Shabani mine by 1930. But wbaxiUrr this increase in supply would ever become generally available Would probably depend critically upon political factors- a.bouc which no firm prediction could be made.. The- gcho-ral view was that the opening of now mines in Eaumdn was unlikely. However, the Quebec govurnrnen t is shovizwg interest in the Abitibi prospect, and there could be a 2>0i? chance that -a mine would be developed, although there i.a thought to bo little Croup b fibre involved. Elsewhere, tho ZIdani development in Cr.oeco, for whieb ia ",nl" projection is made in Mr, Dorner's figures, no looks gulto likely Lo coino c6 fruition. 1'". n. thu C 5A, onvirofratestil considerations could bo an xfiiprirtan t fao cor restricting rven X-hc small expansion qf output (all in the lover grades) indicated by Mr. Dorner's figures. China was mentioned as a pos.si.klo future source of fibro, but this enu only bo regarded s a Very long shot at tho moment. Tiie Fibre Suppiv/Pnmnnri flnlnnco The meeting referred to the figures prepared by the VeTlkiivg Turly anil,in particular, tho summary. of the projected balance be'wcon production and consumption prepared by Hr. Horner. This is shown on pngn 3 . ('000 abort tona.) P r o d u c tio n ( e x c i, C h i n a . & . l 0 3 .- o w n u s e ) 1976 i? a o I . 4 5 6 7/ B T o ta l 4 5 6 7/0 , T o t a l i 4 i i i 997 77 920 800 $,490 1* 141* 742 1,250 932 4,065 1, 153* C o n r u x p tla n ( e s c i u --= :i a n a U h l u. D a l ano a t .R P t i \ , 1 . 0 ) m tu ) 955 51 S i . 5 ! 1,094 o ,j 27) 37 a 759 1 , 0 1 6 . 6 6 3 3 , 5 5 ? ; 1,270 ( 17) 1 ,J * J W j 1 ,533 ; U H ) A r s u r e s r .o e x p o r t i r o n U S S R o f C r o u p 4 i i b r f i t o E n a t e r n E u r o p e o r e l s e - - '.% - r c . 19*3 5 6 733 1,346 047 .1,130 ( 34) 210 7 >S 1 7 1 c . l r . i -- ........ 936 4,?30 613- 5,066 -- 1H 1 I Sj 1 i J - 1 - I t v;ia :'u l t U i a t , i r a n y t h i n g , the cdnnwmutioi; ^ J e e t i n h s m i g h t be Loo h l f . l t . H o w e v e r , Uifj name nit f l i t he: nbou t . Uiu jvrodu c L I on e s t i m a t e s . The prptluc L io n ris.Li-s rvgnrcl In;' ltlioo'c-:. i n ittid A o L c i t l o s H i l l , :ind t h o c a l l i c r s j i ' b i t C h a n c e r. O f r.-injor l i e u m i n e o p e n i n g s ( n c o s e c t i o n 2 nhbv. e) c t l a n s c na gge r. l eel ue'-d to r . l l o v f o r . v n f u l y m a r g i n , . rr nr I- i.cu I y ill rc |) o ct t,r (iro n p h and 5 f i b r e s . H e a r i n g t-l-i Ln m ind, i t was con r.J tlernil H i n t t ho sunp) y/rletnririd b a l astc? i f t ov n i n the ta b le oh page 3 fitVc an opproxima t u ly e n w e t if id ie n t i o n o f ttio l L k o l y f u t u r e p o s i t i o n . I t was p o i n t e d oti fc t h a t t h o f i g u r e s - r i l a t i c i g : t-o b o t h s u p p l y anil con su m p ti o n - c o u l d bo q u i t e ..Ighi.rf:. an c l y a f f e c t e d b y t h e a s s u m p t i o n s rand a a b o u t e x p o r t - * f rum t h e O ' 511 and c o n s u m p t i o n b y L a s t e r n Ctiropc-nn c o u n L r i e s -eiJi/j.r chan the USSR, Gonr.iderablo uncertainty- surrounds the ijs-suMptiens irtUdo. I t was t h e r e f o r e , d e c i d e # t h a C t h e Wor-fris/i P a r t y s h o u l d t r y to c o l l e c t i n f o r m a t i o n tin i m p o r t s o f U S 2S ; b r o i n t o i.s many c o u n t r i e s as p o s s i b l e . S i n c o the- meetiicjir. J ! r . Q orn or hns i n s t i g a t e d t h i s r e s e a r c h , in c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h \ flie r members o f the fo r k in g P arty. . Anhcisfco.i F i b r e I?ri c-es With the m ar k et s t r e n g t h e n i n g o n l y s l o w l y f rom i t s vook s t a t e i n 1977 and 1 9 7 8 , (VAMA p ro d uc e r s m i g h t f i n d i*s r i i i f f i c u l t i n 1979 to. a c h i e v e t ho g o a l o f p h a s i n g o u t d i s o i i e a c s and r e t u r n i n g more g e n e r a l l y to l i s t p r i c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y aas t h e l a t t e r a r c b e i n g r a i s e d b y more than market c o n d i t i o n s f i r s t appeared to w a r r a n t . L i s t p r i c e s a r c duo to b o r a i s e d from 1s t J a n ua r y g. 1979 by 6 f/t i n t h e c a s e o f J o h n s - M a n v i l l o (whin g i v o a l^s d i s c o u n t f o r cash y i t ' h i h 3 0 d a y s) and b y 7? i n the c a s e o f Lajio and H e l l , across a ll grades o f fibre. . ACL a r e , however^ g o i n g f o r l a r g e r I n c r e a s e s -- on h-T, 9"f- on ID, k K , SD and 5# and 6j on t e x t i l e and Orofjp 6 f i b r e s . I t was r e c o g n i s e d t h a t t h e r e arp- s p e c i a l r s a s e n s f o p ACL` s higher p r ic e r i s e s , including the n o g o i t i a t i w i t h the Quebec g ov e rn m e n t , tho d e c i s i o n t h a t i s f ac t ed e v e r who tiler A s b e s t o s H i l l should, bo f a - o p e n e d a f t e r t h e >--Sri*af c l o s u r e (soo- s e c t i o n 2 a b o v e ) , and the n.eocl t o rBcossp d e c l i n i n g s a l e s , r e v e n u e s on t e x t i l e gra de f i b r e . J i o v e r t h a l e i s . ACL would need to have regard to th e ir com p etitiven ess. It was felt that, oven without continued dls-rcon t ing, the in cre a s e s in l i s t p ric e s proposed b y moss producers w ill bo i n s u f f i c i e n t Co c o v e r e x p e c t e d c o s t I n c r e m s I n 197.9* C o s t s ar e l i k e l y t o r i s o by moro. t h a n 6/i, Wisju " iiw-Lron-.Gni a l "' c o s t s a d d i n g t o tho g e n e r a l r a t a o f i h T l a t l s w . w h i c h lias boc-n boosted i n Canada by d o lla r d e p r e c ia t io n . - I n 1980 t h a p r o d u c e r s a r c l i k e l y t o f o a l th ast t l l c r o Ln some " c a t c h i n g up" to bo done on the g e n e r a l r a t e e-f i n f l - n t l o i i , h u t w h e t h e r t h e y w i l l bo a b l e t o do t h i s d c*p'ca.d ? b a s i c a l l y upon m arket t r e n d s i n tho l a t t e r h a l f o f 1 a m i e a r l y lu.SO. `1 A L l h p u g h ;! 1 i i1 t a 1 s i t i i n t i o n v i s - - v i s tlio a s b e s t o j m lU ;U:-y : ..m :1,-s i-f.innini.-U v c r y u n c o r t n i n r.nd G o v e r n m e n t jIni crj'i : > - m , n - l k c l v lo c o n t i m i , t h n e o t i n / : f o l i i-cn:um.-.M y . ' :: !`,llc abol l p r i.puc t r. t h e r o . Tt w /j: Tri " .a r ilio Q u e b e c g o v n n w i e n t n e-g n t i a t io n s o v e r AGI. v m i 'i- 11:., lv io l.d p r trite L e d . A C L appesir lo v a n i lo tirar o.u i (!< iicy/i li a t i o n s i n th. h o p e t h p c Die p o l i t i c a i j.inpevur- ci i' : ; P a r t i u elio e o i s v i l i h e d e c l i n i n e b y Die c i m e ilio ili',-:., li.v. ioivs cnio to a h e a d . 7j io m e-eli:.. ordr.iiisniii" a levy n *'c l ; t i m i a /;verniseli l- spn-r o r od asbesto.* r e s t a ??. almos.l cerfcai'ii t,o b o o s t a b i isii e d , iivolvin;; ducei* o f l?a o f iialos r o v e n t c s . ). Asbesto* ant d o r 1rh The nicotine, f e l t D in t p u b l i c and o f f i c i a l p r e s s u r e on t h i s ` issue w ill t.'.uo. I t !. a l r e a d y become v e r y much a ilp ub l ic11 i,tij(S in Europe and the U'S-A-, and it is poy follovin^ a similar ir/nd in certain developing countries - for example, Colombia ajii- possibly Mexico ail'd lirajsil. It yas To 1 1 'lint tn independent International Medical Panel was now r o e m f e d . International eo-ordina ti on of public relations i r . u i advice (to producers and users of asbestos products) v*>i\d also be desirable. 7 * Asbcslos arrt! VlC'search . It was thjit there vas no cine substitute for asbestos. Alternative^, j.n the textiles area would obviously be different few those i n plastics rainforcorsant and cement rein fore cmtn.il\ had, within each of these areas, there could bo different pn'tvst itutds ticcorditjc to the final uses of the various product. It was rcpcc-iid that work was p ro ce ed in g on alternative, no n asbestos c 6ui**nt r e i n f o r ce m en ts , hu.b that fully satisfactory solutions ah the problems involved ha d yet to be found. This was particrE.-avly so with pipe Where a solution seemed unlikely tp be founc 70 the short torn. One possibility might be the substituticML?f a proportion of thp asbestos normally used in an a-c ; i:;po furnish. Meanwhile, a-c pipe furnishes have boon clicnpwiid following r esearch and development work to this end. - Another meihii of m a in ta ini ng tho marlcot for a-c products was felt to be hhe development of on-alte precautions - for exa mp le, 11d-uv?iiii> down" tcclmif|Mod i n sawing, Out these precaution, iould involvo cost advantages against non-asbestos rubsiriuie and it was vital now to keep tlie installed cos L of u-c 'ionvpc Li live. F i n a l l y , it v n s p o i n t e d o u t L h a t J.b< u r g e n c y o f s e e k i n g s u b s t i t u t e s lvas bceii r c d u c d o v e r Uo pnrrL 2 -- J y e a r s in t h e s e n s e t h a t tl:o ferir o f a c t u a l e n d p r o s p e c t i v e a s b e s t o s F i b r e sliert;if.es h a s r e c e d e d . Ilo-.-irv>rf ) n'np-tcri.i d e m a n d t r e n d s , c o m b i not! w i t h the nshontst. h o a i L l i i s s u e , suf.puscod a n e e d to k e e p u p noin en tin on the Oo v e 1 o p i n m t o f s u b s t i t u t e . Fri t u r e Chi I 1 aborriti o ri- I t was confirm ed u n an im o u sly th a t o c c a s i o n a l m o c tin c a l i k e th e p r e s e n t one., b a c k e d by the srradios made b y the f o r k i n g P a r t y , s e r v e d a u s e f u l p u r p o s e , eVx-n i. f no. s p e c i f i c a c t i o n o r d e c is io n s flow ed d i r e c t l y fr o s Diem, I t was agreed l-hat tlio Working P a r ty s h o u ld C o n tin u to r e v i e w and u p - d t e i t s f i b r e ponsT.imp fci o n a n d p r o d u c t i o n d a t a and p r o j e c t i o n s . I t s h o u ld , in th e s h o r t term, a tte m p t to c o l l e c t , more d ata pp iiyp.orcs o f H ussiart f i b r e ( s a c s e c t i o n 3 a b o v e ) . F o r f u t u r e " s u m m it " - n o e t i n f f s , tjao Vbrking Party should prepare b r ie f a n a ly s e s o f the economic background to th c u r r e n t and s h o r t - term fu t u r e market fo r a sb esto s in the m ajor markets -- Europoan c o u n tr ie s in particular- The n e x t "summit" m e o t i n s was t e a t . & t i v e l y e r r a n c e d f o r 2 9 th October 1979 in B r u s s e ls o r P a r i s .