Document ppNNzZazJDJGKZgRykBBRnY9j
FILE NAME Keene KNE
DATE 1970
DOC KNE045
DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION 1970 Excerpt from Published Article MF regarding Asbestos Use in Construction
MF 1970
ASBESTOS
859
tween 1940 and 1950. The total increase was 200
percent above the 1940 level half of it occurring
during the war years and half in the following 5 years Merely maintaining this level for an im-
ported material in the face of increasing competition from low cost synthetic products would be
TABLE
Contingency forecasts of demand by end use year 2000
for asbestos
End use
Thousand short tons
Esti- US
mated forecast
demand base
1968
2000
Demand in year 2000
United States Rest of the world
-
Low High
Low
High
difficult but asbestos demand since 1950 has
Construction
de- gained es
about 1 percent per year The 1968
Asbestos cement
projected mand for each end use was
to the year
products
Floor tile
566
82
2.949
983 1,475
NA
Lome growth appropriate 2000 at the forecast
rates for
Paper products
57
Paints & caulking 16
NA
NA
economic indicators to arrive at a forecast base
Transportation
.
25
16
60
50
100
NA
56
56
60
NA
N NA
Textiles
.
The quantity of asbestos indicated by this projection method for each end use was modified to
obtain a demand range contingent on the occur-
Plastics Other
Total
. oo
8 47
817
28 165
28 165
30 200
NA
NA
1,2821,282 1.865 1.865 5,400 10,000 Median 1,573.5 Median 7,700
rence of technologic or other changes in the consuming industries About 88 percent of the
NA Not available
asbestos demand in the U.S. during 1968 was
consumed in new construction but this percent-
2000
age use is not expected to persist throughout the
1865
forecast period
The U.S. demand for asbestos in 2000 is ex-
pected to be nearly 2 times that of 1968. The
world demand should show a greater
growth since the developing countries have a much greater new construction potential The
demand could increase at the same rate as gross
product but it is not likely to exceed this rate therefore the high of the forecast range for the
rest of the world is established at 10.0 million
tons for the year 2000. This represents an aver-
age annual growth rate of 4.2 percent Should the rest of the world be so beset with problems
1500-
TONS TONS TONS
TONS
SHORT SHORT
SHORT
SHORT
THOUSAND
THOUSANDTHOUSAND 1000 r
THOUSAND
THOUSAND
Demand
.
Forecast
.
Forecast
5,
~
, -1574
?]
- 1282
Lost year 817
trend
Lost 20
trend _ - 1925
year
~
Last may
year
=~ year trend wn
~
me as to prevent an increase in general living stand-
ards then the expanded consumption of asbes-
500 The last year and year trends
566
+
tos would be directly related to population
for domestic production projected to the
with an average annual growth rate estimated at
2.2 percent Under these conditions the demand would be 5.4 million tons which is taken as the
year 2000 indicate 266,000 and 241,000
tons respectivaly
Production
121 sew?
ratio-
Constant ratio- ratio-
Constant
275 199
low of the range The following tabulation sum-
0
}
marizes the forecast ranges for both the United
1949
1968
2000
States and the rest of the world
Figure Comparison of Trend Projections and Forecasts
for Asbestos Demand and Production
United States
High
Median
Rest the world
Median
* Estimate
Forecast range of demand for asbestos thousand short tons
1968
2000
} 817
1,865
( 1,282
1,574
7,700
Construction
Demand for asbestos for use in construction
products is considered to be related to the forecast growth rate of 4.5 percent of total new construction In accord with that presumed correla
tion a forecast base of 2,949,000 tons for 2000
was established However the historical growth
rate has been at a significantly lower rate than
total new construction a factor that must be
taken into account Also substitution is possible
in many of the end uses and particularly in the asbestos cement products where a variety of alternate ceramic and new plastic materials are available and in paints and caulking where as-
bestos competes with a number of materials
The most apparent opportunity for an increase above the forecast base is paradoxically in
the asbestos cement products which compete with lumber and other building products many
of which are increasing rapidly in price However even barring large price increases for asbestos which are not anticipated the growth rate
for asbestos cement products is not expected to