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Mr. J. W. RawIlogs
March 25, 1974
A Vary Preliminary Look at Union Carbide's 1980 Asbestos Business
Growth of Union Carbide's asbestos business will be determined by -
0) Normal expansion (or contraction) of sales In existing markets;
(2) Ability to capture an Increased share of existing markets;
(3) Development of new markets for CaHekla fiber.
Perspective on existing and future markets and Union Carbide's share thereof Is presented tol lable I. The biggest single market for short fiber asbestos Is floor tile but here the growth rate Is likely to be no more than 35/year. With the probable demise of the Coal Inga Asbestos Company, we should about double our sales by 1980, given the advantages of our pelletized product, reduced TIOj requirement, etc. A countervailing consideration Is the extent to which Group I efforts on NAT will be successful.
The drilling mud market Is expected to grow at about 7% per year between now and 1980
spurred by the search for new dl. We should be able to capture an Increasing shoo of this market to competition with Canadian Johns-Manvllle products.
Elastomers represent an untapped market of significant potential. 10) work (already to progress on a limited basis with Dan Berry at Tarrytown and H&C to England) in addition to extensive market development will be needed to obtain significant business to this area.
The market for paints, textured coatings, adhesives, caulks and sealants Is highly fragmented and, therefore, difficult to quantify. Figures to Table I are only guesstimates. With our highly liberated products such as RG-144 and HPO, we should be able to capture some ad ditional business to this area over the next several years.
Reinforced thermoplastics are the proposed outlet for RG-600. 1980 rales are predicated upon capturing, through aggressive market development, 25% of the business available to fiberglass. Given the obvious Industry bias against evaluating new asbe stos-contolnlng products, this Is no minor task.
UCC 000049
Mr. J. W. Rawlings
.2.
March 25, T974
W Hava boon vary successful In tha last two yaan In Increasing our share of tha market for re&-mtx varlaty of tope Joint compounds. However, this aroo ft under Incraasing pressure from the likes of Dr. SeltkofF primarily bacausa of tha dust generated during sanding of tape Joints. If the occupational health question eon be managed, we should enjoy Increased sales In this group.
The celling Hie market Is mostly Japanese. Our one U. S. customer (Conwed) Is located In Minnesota where the psychological effects of the Reserve Mining Co. suit could Muse this business to disappear. This market Is relatively static.
In the thlxotrope market we should be able to Increase sales of RG-244 to 2,500 tons by 1980 based upon normal growth of this market and price and performance advantages as compared to fumed si Ilea.
On a brooder scale It Is InteresHng, though not particularly relevant, to note that JohnsManvllie expects warld-wtde consumption of asbestos fibers to grow at a rate of 3-4% but that their business will grow at a 5% rate. In Canada and Hie U. S. Johns-ManvUle pro(ects a growth rote for their asbestos business of 10%, which In significant part represents * Increased market share rather than market growth.
WCTies Attachment
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Table I Short Fiber Asbestos Consumption - Tons
Floor Tile Drilling Mud Elastomers Adhesive, caulks & sealants Paints and coatings Reinforced thermoplastics Filled Phenolics Tape Joint Compounds Ceiling Tile Paper Thixotropes (RG-244)
1973
Total
UCC
95,000
13,500
9,000
3,100
00
4,000
1,700
1,000
700
00
6,000
0
9,000
4,000
5,000
5,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
132,000
31,000
1980
Total ~cc
117,000 28,000
16,000
7,000
7,000
3,000
5,000
3,000
1,000
500
15,000 15,000
7,500
2,000
11,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
.2,000
2,000
2,500
2,500
189,000 73,000
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