Document jZyM8N834mNZpY7vRG4GxRMk

CC: W. F Wagner D Snee December 7, 1983 TO: FROM: D. W. MARQUARDT 3. M. MINOR 3. M. LUCAS W. H. FELLNER C. A. FUNG S. P. BAILEY R. K. HENDERSON CT. AJ C. G. PFEIFER BLOOD LEAD/GASOLINE LEAD DRAFT REPORT In an informal seminar in September, I discussed our analyses of blood lead data from a four-year national survey (NHANES II). Our goal is to quantify the portion of a reported decline of 5-6 ug/dl in blood lead levels attributable to survey design and exposure to gasoline lead. Attached is a partial draft of a report that was recently sent to Dr, Ralph Bradley for reyiew prior to a Dec. 15, 1983 meeting with him. Ron and I would welcome any comments you may have on this draft by the end of the year. The deadline for submission to EPA is 3anuary 15, 1984, Also attached is a copy of a Petroleum Laboratory report based on earlier results that will provide a quick overview of the problem. Sections of the draft report are: II. NHANES II and the Reported Blood Lead Decline III. Effect of Survey Design on Reported Blood Lead Decline IV. Gasoline Lead Exposure V, Effect of Exposure to Gasoline Lead on Reported Blood Lead Decline Also included are Appendices referenced in Sections III and V, CGP:mai Atch TEH 0532551 MTB > >STOP *** MINITAB *** STATISTICS DEPT * PENN STATE UNIV. * RELEASE 82.1 * STORAGE USED 3000 STORAGE AVAILABLE 100000 MTB > >CORR CIS Cl6 Cl? C30 / XI PRIME < X2 PRIME I M2 T2X1 PRIMEX2 PRIME '-.899... -.679 .62~0 -.980 .917' .776 MTB > >REGRESS C30 ON 3 PRED Cl6 Cl7 CIS THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS M2 = 10.2 + 2.26 XI PRIME + 3.19 X2 PRIME COLUMN XI PRIME X2 PRIME T2 COEFFICIENT 10.204 2.2642 3.1863 -4.8362 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 2.932 0.7696 0 .5545 0.4429 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. 3.48 2.94 5.75 -10.92 S = 4.672 y.,xsT2. & -0.31 - L io R-SQUARED * 98.9 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 98.7 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 3 16 19 SS 32553 349 32902 MS=SS/DF 10851 22 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 3 32553 XI PRIME 1 27644 X2 PRIME 1 2307 T2 1 2602 ROW XI PRIME 15 -8 .0 Y M2 -121 .02 PRED. Y VALUE -112.32 ST.DEV. PRED. Y RESIDUAL 2.04 -8.70 R DENOTES AN OBS. WITH A LARGE ST, RES. ST.RES. -2.Q7R DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC =1.25 MTB > >REGRESS C30 ON 2 PRED Cl6 Cl 7 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS M2 - 18.6 + 9.24 X:L PRIME + 5.33 X2 PRIME COLUMN XI PRIME X2 PRIME COEFFICIENT 18.561 9.242 5.331 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 7.982 1.209 1.463 T-RATIO i COEF/S.D 2.33 7.64 3.64 TEH 0532552 f DUP050033821 R-SQUARED 91.0 PERCENT R-SQUARED 90.0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FDR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 2 17 19 SS 29950 2952 32902 MS=SS/DF 14975 174 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 2 29950 XI PRIME 1 27644 X2 PRIME 1 2307 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.70 MTB > >REGRESS C30 ON 2 PRED Cl6 Cl7 C31 C32 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS M2 = 18.6 + 9.24 XI PRIME + 5.33 X2 PRIME COLUMN XI PRIME X2 PRIME COEFFICIENT 18.561 9.242 5.331 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 7.982 1.209 1.463 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. 2.33 7.64 3.64 S * 13.18 R-SQUARED = 91.0 PERCENT R-SQUARED =90.0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 2 17 19 SS 29950 2952 32902 MS=SS/DF 14975 174 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 2 29950 XI PRIME 1 27644 X2 PRIME 1 2307 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC * 1.70 MTB > >NAME C31 'STRES M2',C32 'PRED M2' MTB > >LET C33=C30-C32 MTB > >NAME C3S 'M2 RES' MTB > >REGRESS C33 ON 1 PRED CIS THE REGRESS 10N-EATI M2 RES = 8.50 is: 0.809 T2 TEH 0532553 DUP050033822 COLUMN T2 COEFFICIENT 8.496 -0.8091 ST. DEM. OF COEF, 5.492 0.4585 T-RATIO - COEF/S.D. 1.55 -1.76 S = 11.82 R-SQUARED = 14,8 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 10.0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 435.4 2516.2 2951.6 MS=SS/DF 435.4 139.8 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.59 MTB > >REGRESS C30 ON 2 PRED C26 C27 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS M2 - 74.9 - 3.1 X1P RES + 6.7 SRES X2P COLUMN X1P RES SRES X2P COEFFICIENT -74.935 -3.11 6.72 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 9.669 18.20 10.46 T-RATIO COEF/S.D. -7.75 -0.17 0.64 S = 43,24 R-SQUARED R-SQUARED 3.4 PERCENT .0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL To t a l DF 2 17 19 SS 1117 31785 32902 MS*SS/DF 558 1870 DUP050033823 >MINITAB*MINITAB.MINITAB IF YOU NEED THE 81.1 VERSION OF MINITAB, IT IS IN *OLD*MINITAB.MINITAB". MINITAB RELEASE 82.1 *** COPYRIGHT - PENN STATE UNIV. 1982 FEB, 9, 1984 *** UNIV. OF WISCONSIN - m&ISON -- MACC VERSION 82.1-UW2.1 STORAGE AVAILABLE 100000 MTB > >RETR 'CAKRDS*TESTS, MTB > >INFO COLUMN NAME Cl T C2 XI C3 X2 C4 E cs M C6 Y RESID C7 ST RESID C8 PRED Y C9 ST XI CIO PRED XI Cll ST X2 Cl 2 PRED X2 Cl 3 XI RESID C14 X2 RESID CIS T2 CIS Xl PRIME Cl 7 X2 PRIME Cl 8 M PRIME Cl 9 El C20 M+El C21 STRES MP CONTINUE? > C22 PRED MP C23 RESID MP C24 SRES XIP C25 PRE XIP C26 XIP RES C27 SRES X2P 28 PRE X2P C29 X2P RES C30 M2 C31 STRES M2 C32 PRED M2 C33 M2 RES COUNT 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CONSTANTS USED: K1 K49 MTB > >REGRESS CIS ON 1 PRED CIS C34 C35 THE REGRESSION EQUATTt XI PRIME - 1.52 tO,484, TEH 0532555 DUP050033824 COLUMN T2 COEFFI'CI'ENT -1.5158 -0.48421 OF COEF. 0.6650 0.05551 COEF/S.D. -2.28 -8.72 S = 1.431 R-SQUARED = 80.9 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 79.8 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 155.92 36.88 192.80 MS-SS/DF 155.92 2.05 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC =1.74 MTB X XNAME C34 ' STRESXlP'',C35 'PRED X1P' MTB > XLET C36=C16-C35 MTB > XNAME C36 "X1P RES2" MTB X XREGRESS Cl7 ON 1 PRED Cl5 C37 C38 THE REGRESSION EQUl X2 PRIME - 2,93 COLUMN T2 COEFFIC l ENT -2.9263 -0.30226 ST. DEV, OF COEF. 0.9229 0.07704 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D, -3.17 -3.92 S = 1.987 R--SQUARED =46.1 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 43.1 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 IS 19 60.711 71.047 131,800 MS=SS/DF 60.753 3.947 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 2.95 MTB X XNAME C37 STRESX2P',C38 'PRED X2P' MTB X XLET C39=C17~C38 MTB X XNAME C39 'X2P RES2" MTB X XCORR CIS C36 C39 C30 f [ XIP RES2 i X2P RES2 ^___ M2 T2X1P RES2X2P RES2 .000 .000 .029 -.980 .080 ,150 I j MTB X XREGRESS C30 ON 3 PRED C36 C39 CIS THE REGRESSION--EQU&f I ON IS M2 - 2,55 -4^2.26 J1P RES2 2P RES; ST. DEV. T-RATIO = rirti-r* xn TIH 0532556 DUP050033825 X1P RES2 X2P RES2 T2 -2.552 2.2642 3.1863 -6.8957 2.170 0.7696 0.5545 0.1812 -1.18 2.94 5.75 -38.06 S = 4.672 R-SOUARED =98.9 PERCENT R-SQUARED 98.7 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. DIALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 3 16 19 SS 32553 349 32902 MS =SS/DF 10851 22 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 3 32553 XIP RES2 1 211 X2P RES2 1 721 T2 1 31621 ROW X1P RES2 15 0. 78 Y M2 -121.02 PRED. Y VALUE -112.32 ST.DEV. PRED. Y RESIDUAL 2.04 -8.70 ST.RES. -2.Q7R R DENOTES AN OBS. WITH A LARGE ST. RES. DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.25 MTB > >SAVE 'CAKRDS*TESTS.' MTB > >ST0P *** MINITAB *** STATISTICS DEPT * PENN STATE UNIV. * RELEASE 82.1 * STORAGE USED 3000 STORAGE AVAILABLE 100000 TEH 0532557 DUP050033826 MTB > >STQP *** MINITAB *** STATISTICS DEPT * PEW STATE UNIV. * RELEASE 82.1 * STORAGE USED 3000 STORAGE AVAILABLE 100000 MTB > >REGRESS CIS ON 3 PRED Cl6 Cl7 Cl THE REGRESSION M PRIME =7.17 PRIME PRIME 6:..23Tf COLUMN XI PRIME X2 PRIME T COEFFICIENT 7.166 -0.058 2.8012 -6.230 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 3.670 1.897 0.5729 1.092 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. 1.95 -0.03 4.89 -5.71 S = 4.516 R-SQUARED = 99.0 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 98.9 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE -0,/ 6 7.os DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DP 3 16 19 SS 3357? 326 33903 MS=SS/DF 11192-\ CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 3 33577 XI PRIME 1 31353 X2 PRIME 1 1560 T 1 664 ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN \i w > DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.34 MTB > >CORR Cl6 Cl7 Cl CIS XI PRIMEX2 PRIME X2 PRIME .620>7 / T -.383/ -.679/ M PRIME V.I62*) (3^-764 MTB > >REGRESS CIS ON 2 PRED CIS Cl7 Cl9 C20 THE REGRESSION M PRIME = 21.1 PRIME +14.38 !2 PRIME COLUMN XI PRIME X2 PRIME COEFFICIENT 21.122 10.5057 4.3838 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 4.623 0.7004 0.8472 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. 4.57 15.00 5.17 S " 7.633 R-SQUARED = 97.1 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 96.7 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ^ 11 , TEH 0532558 DUP050033827 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 2 17 IS SS 32913 SSO 33903 MS-SS/DF 16456 58 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO OF SS REGRESSION 2 32913 XI PRIME 1 31353 X2 PRIME 1 1560 ROW XI PRIME 14 -8,0 15 -8,0 Y M PRIME -96.28 -121.02 PRED. Y VALUE -80.46 -106.76 ST.DEV. PRED. Y 3.03 3.28 RESIDUAL -15.83 -14.26 ST.RES, -2.26R -2.Q7R R DENOTES AN OBS. WITH A LARGE ST. RES, DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC 1.64 MTB > >NAME CIS "ST M PR',C20 'PRE M PR" HTB > >INFO COLUMN Cl C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 09 CIO Cll Cl 2 Cl 3 C14 CIS Cl 6 Cl? Cl 8 CIS C20 NAME T XI X2 E M Y RESID ST RESID PRED Y ST XI PRED XI ST X2 PRED X2 XI RESID X2 RESID T2 XI PRIME X2 PRIME M PRIME ST M PR PRE M PR COUNT 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CONTINUE? > CONSTANTS USED: K1 K49 MTB > >LET C21=C18--C20 MTB > >NAME C21 'M PR RES" MTB > >REGRESS C21 ON 1 PRD Cl THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS AM PR RES 1.68 0.160 T c o l u mn T COEFFICIENT 1. (583 -0.1603 S - 7.353 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 3.416 0.2831 T-RATIO COEF/S.D, 0.49 -0.56 TEH 0532559 DUP050033828 R-SqUARED * 1.7 PERCENT R-SOUARED - .0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 17,08 973.26 990.34 MS'-SS/DF 17.08 54.07 CONTINUE? > ROW T 14 14 .0 Y M PR RES -15.83 PRED. Y VALUE -0.56 ST.DEV. PRED. Y RES1DUAL 1.92 -15.26 R DENOTES AN OBS. WITH A LARGE ST. RES, DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC * 1.67 MTB > >INFO COLUMN NAME Cl T C2 XI C3 X2 C4 E C5 M C6 Y RESID C7 ST RESID C8 PRED Y C9 ST XI CIO PRED XI Cll ST X2 Cl 2 PRED X2 Cl 3 XI RESID Cl 4 X2 RESID Cl 5 T2 CIS XI PRIME Cl 7 X2 PRIME Cl 8 M PRIME C19 ST M PR C20 PRE M PR C21 M PR RES CONTINUE? > COUNT 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CONSTANTS USED; K1 K49 MTB > >REGRESS CIS ON 1 PRED Cl C22 C23 THE REGRESSION EOUATION IS XI PRIME - 1.04 - 0.529 T COLUMN T COEFFICIENT -1,0421 -0.52932 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 0.2787 0.02326 T-RATIO * eOEF/S.D. -3.74 -22.75 S = 0.5999 R-SOUARED * 96.6 PERCENT R-SQUARED *96.5 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO DF SS A rtrt MS=SS/DF A AA TEH 0532560 DUP050033829 RESIDUAL TOTAL 18 19 6.48 132.80 0.38 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC =2.27 MTB > >REGRESS Cl7 ON 1 PREP Cl C24 C25 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS X2 PRIME = - 2.33 - 0.302 T COLUMN T COEFFICIENT -2.9263 -0.30226 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 0.9229 0.07704 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. -3.17 -3.92 S = 1.387 R-SQUARED =46.1 PERCENT R-SQUARED 43.1 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 60.753 71.047 131.800 MS=SS7DF 60.753 3.947 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 2.88 MTB > MTB > MTB > MTB > MTB > >NAME C22 '.ST X1PR',C23 >LET C26=C16-C23 >LET C27=C17-C25 >NAME C26 'XIP RES',C27 >INFO 'PRED XIP 'X2P RES' ,C24 'ST X2PR',C25 'PRED X2P' COLUMN NAME Cl T C2 XI C3 X2 C4 E C5 M C6 Y RESID C7 ST RESID C8 PRED Y C9 ST XI CIO PRED XI cii ST X2 Cl 2 PRED X2 Cl 3 XI RESID Cl 4 X2 RESID CIS T2 -^C16 XI PRIME --9>C17 X2 PRIME CIS M PRIME Cl 9 ST M PR C20 PRE M PR 21 M PR RES CONTINUE? > C22 ST XI PR C23 PRED X1P C24 ST X2PR COUNT 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 TEH 0532561 DUP050033830 C26 C27 XIP RES X2P RES 20 20 CONSTANTS USEDi K1 K49 K50 NTS > >REGRESS CIS ON 3 PRED C26 C27 Cl THE REGRESSION EQ! IS M PRIME = - 0,97 O.OSiXlP RES + 2.80 X2P RES -jl 7.051 T COLUMN X1P RES X2P RES T COEFFICIENT -0.971 -0.058 2.8012 -7,0462 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 2.098 1.897 0.5729 0.1751 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. -0.46 -0.03 4.89 -40.23 S = 4.516 R-SOUARED - 99.0 PERCENT R-SQUARED f 98.9 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 3 16 19 SS 33577 326 33903 MS=SS/DF 11192 20 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 3 33577 X1P RES 1 72 X2P RES 1 488 T 1 33017 WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC * 1.34 TEH 0532562 DUP050033831 /wc (5 .ooosu^t .oaomio non% 11.%% TEH 0532563 DUP050033832 DUP050033833 DUP050033834 TEH 0532566 DUP050033835 MTB > >PLOT 02 CIS XI 12.00+ -- ** * ** 8.00+ -- * ** * * * ** 4.00+ *** * *** 00+ +----------- -------I--------------------( ------------------ )-------------------- I------------------- KT2 .00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 MTB > >PLOT 0.3 CIS X2 12.50+ 9.00+ * k it * ** ** 5.50+ ** kk k *k k k 2.00+ * .00 * 5.00 * 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 MTB > >PLOT C5 CIS M 180.00+ 120.00+ kk k k ** *k * ** k SO.00+ k * kk .00+ +------- --------+-------------- -+------------------- b--------------- -+--------~-------+T2 .00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 TEH 0532567 DUP050033836 MTB > >PLOT C3 C2 X2 12.50+ 'J 9.00+ *** *** * * -* * 5.50+ ** -* * * * O m 2.00+ * +------- 2.00 * 4.00 * 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 MTB > >C0RR CIS C2 C3 C5 in XI X2 #M T2 .899 .679 .930 XI . 620 .969 X2 .764 m 9 MTB > >REGRESS C5 ON 3 PRED C2 C3 Cl5 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS M * 0.63 + 8.85 XI + 3.67 X2 + 1.11 T2 <i ST. DEV. T-RATIO = COLUMN COEFFICIENT OF COEF. COEF/S.D. 0.632 3.266 0.19 XI 8.8536 0.8572 10.33 X2 3.6658 0,6177 5.94 i T2 1.1063 0.4934 2.24 ^ *5 ii 0 S * 5.204 R-SQUARED * 98.7 PERCENT R-SQUARED =98.4 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE i DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL OF 3 16 19 SS 32049 433 32482 MS=SS/DF 10683 27 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 3 32049 XI 1 30511 X2 1 1402 T2 1 136 0 ROW 4n xAi Y PRED. Y ST.DEV. M VALUE PRED. Y RESIDUAL AA AA AA ft ST.RES. A ftAD TEH 0532568 DUP050033837 R DENOTES AN 08S. WITH A LARGE ST. RES DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC * 1.17 HTB > >SAVE 'CAKRDS*TESTS.' TEH 0532569 DUP050033838 \ u cl TEH 0532570 DUP050033839 TEH 0532572 DUP050033840 MTB > > REGRESS C5 ON 3 PRfi.D C2 C3 Cl TEH 0532573 DUP050033841 THE JREGRfSSJIJMJiQUAT, M =K.17\+(4.0yXl -I 3.77 COLUMN XI X2 T COEFFICIENT 7.166 4.058 3.1988 3,770 ST. OF COEF. 3.670 1.897 0.5729 1.092 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D, 1.95 2.14 5.58 3.45 S 4.516 R-SQUARED = 99.0 PERCENT R-SQUARED 98.8 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL OF 3 16 19 SS 32156 326 32482 MSSS/DF CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 3 32156 XI 1 30511 X2 1 1402 T 1 243 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC =1.34 MTB > >REGRESS CS CN 2 PRED C2 C3 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS M = - 1.28 + 10.4 XI + 4.16 X2 ) COLUMN XI X2 COEFFICIENT -1.279 10.4498 4.1564 ST. DEV, OF COEF. 3.506 0.5312 0.6424 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. -0.36 19.67 6.47 S = 5.788 R-SQUARED = 98.2 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 98.0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 2 17 19 SS 31913 569 32482 MS=SS/DF 15956 33 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 2 31913 XI 1 30511 X2 1 1402 TEH 0532574 DUP050033842 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC m 1.81 MTB > >REGRESS C5 ON 2 PRED C2 C3 C7 C8 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS M = - 1.28 + 10.4 XI + 4.16 X2 COLUMN XI X2 COEFFICIENT -1.279 10.4498 4.1564 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 3.506 0.5312 0.6424 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. -0,36 19.67 6.47 S * 5.788 R-SQUARED = 98.2 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 98.0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 2 17 19 SS 31313 569 32482 MS=SS/DF 15956 33 CONTINUE? > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 2 31913 XI 1 30511 X2 1 1402 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC * 1.81 MTB > >LET C6=C5-C8 MTB > >NAME C6 'Y RESID' MTB > >REGRESS C6 ON 1 PRED Cl THE REGRESSION EQUA1________ Y RES ID =?= - 1,02 +Co To 97 T i i rmin'iiii i --^ COLUMN T COEFFICIENT -1.018 0,0970 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 2.598 0.2169 T-RATIO = COEF/S.D. -0.39 0.45 S = 5.594 R-SQUARED * 1.1 PERCENT R-SQUARED - .0 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 6.25 563.22 569.48 MS-SS/DF 6.25 31.23 p u n%rs til t tA>r< v p ml < at A _ 41 AA TEH 0532575 DUP050033843 MTB > >NAME C7 "ST RESID' ,C8 'PEED Y' MTB > >PRINT C1-C8 ROW T XI X2 E M Y RESID ST RESID 11 22 3 3 4 5 5fl 6 7h 8 jf *8. 9 9 "SL 10 7 IrO 11 11 12 12 13 16 "*a. 14 14 15 15 18 17 17 18 2 *a 19 19 20 IS'SO 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 12 12 2 -0.7534 4 -7.4820 8 -1.3071 4 1.4994 8 -2.9768 2 2.5257 8 3.5950 4 -1.7794 2 3.5611 8 4.1898 6 -0.2868 8 3.2994 8 4.1078 4 -8.2845 10 -10.0171 8 -5.3341 8 -3.7320 10 -0.3987 8 2.6184 10 -2.1740 24.247 28.518 45.693 51.493 58.023 56.526 80.595 72.221 76.561 100.190 94.713 113.299 113.108 99.715 120.983 122.666 135.268 149.601 155,618 161.826 -3,68651 -7.72786 1.13428 -5.64616 -7.43510 7.69290 6.82393 -5.82468 6.82856 5.51902 8.35525 -2.27098 5.85014 0.77053 -2.90030 -5.49145 -1,20207 4.81847 -1.75138 -3.85658 -0,71087 -1.45731 0.22226 -1.02394 -1.35695 1,46730 1.32969 -1,05581 1.34372 1.01186 1.48297 -0,40850 1.04722 0.14508 -0.55506 -1.03019 -0.22019 0.91234 -0.34056 -0.75305 MTB > >PLOT C2 Cl XI 12.00+ ** *** PRED Y 27,933 36.246 44.559 57.146 65.458 48.833 73.771 78,045 69.733 94.671 86.358 115.570 107.258 98.945 123.883 128,157 136.470 144.783 157.370 165.683 8.00+ **** *k** 4.00+ * * * kkk .00+ .00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 MTB > >PLOT C3 Cl X2 12.50+ 9.00+ 5.50+ k kk * ** kk *k kk k kk k k TEH 0532576 DUP050033844 --------FT .00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 MTB > >PLOT 05 Cl M 180.00+ ** 120.00+ * ** ** ** * 60.00+ ** ** ** ** .00+ +------ ------------+-------- --------- +---------- ----+------ Oo or l . 00 5.00 15.00 --t--20.00 25.00 >PLOT C3 C2 X2 12.50+ - 9.00+ *** * * k * * ifl - * * * * * 5.50+ -* * * * 2.00+ * k +------ -------- 2.00 4.00 * ----h----- 6.00 -------- h----- --- 8.00 10.00 ---+X1 12.00 MTB > >CORR Cl C2 C3 C5 T XI X2 XI .983 X2 .679 . 620 M .935 .969 .764 MTB > >SAVE *CAKRD8*TESTS.' MTB > >STOP *** MINITAB *** STATISTICS DEPT * PENN STATE UNIV. * RELEASE 82.1 * STORAGE USED 3000 STORAGE AVAILABLE 100000 TEH 0532577 # # # # # # Cl DUP050033845 1! RUNID: CAK ACCTs 156015 CAK FIN TIME! TOTAL: 00:00:13.061 CPU: 00:00:01.206 CC/ER: CO:00:05.698 PROJECT: Q*Q*Q* CBSUPSi 004956066 I/O: 00:00:06.155 WAIT: 00:17:02.879 SIMS USED: 257 SUAS REMAINING: 99995983 IMAGES READ: 40 PAGES: 9 START: 11:09:37 FEB 08,1984 FIN: 11:26:53 FEB 08,1984 ^TERMINAL INACTIVE* >MINITAB*MINITAB.MINITAB *WAIT-LAST INPUT IGNORED* IF YOU NEED THE 81.1 VERSION OF MINITAB, IT IS IN "0LD*MINITAB.MINITAB". MINITAB RELEASE 82.1 *** COPYRIGHT - PENN STATE UNIV. 1982 FEB. 8, 1984 *** UNIV. OF WISCONSIN - MADISON -- MACC VERSION 82.1-UW2.1 STORAGE AVAILABLE 100000 MTB > >RETR ' CAKRDS*TESTS. * MTB > >INFO COLUMN Cl C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 NAME T XI X2 E M Y RESID ST RESID PRED Y COUNT 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CONSTANTS USED: K49 K50 MTB > >REGRESS C2 ON 1 PRED Cl C9 CIO o THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS XI =* 1.04 + 0.529 T COLUW T COEFFICIENT 1.0421 0.52932 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 0.2787 0.02326 T-RATIO COEF/S.D. 3.74 22.75 S = 0.5999 R-SQUARED * 96.6 PERCENT R-SQUARED 96.5 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 186.32 6.48 192.80 MS*SS/DF 186.32 0.36 0 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC - 2.27 '0 MTB > > uxn v v k iAur e*n s a t n / rshriN / TEH 0532578 DUP050033846 MTB > >REGRESS C2 ON 1 PRED Cl Cll C12 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS XI = 1.04 + 0.529 T COLUMN T COEFFICIENT 1.0421 0.52932 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 0.2787 0.02326 T-RATIO COEF/S.D 3.74 22.75 S 0.5999 R-SQUARED =96.6 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 96.5 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 186.32 6.48 192.80 MS=SS/DF 186.32 0.36 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 2.27 MTB > >REGRESS C3 ON 1 PRED Cl Cll C12 THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS X2 " 2.93 *+!#>** 0.302 T COLUMN T COEFFICIENT 2.9263 0.30226 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 0.9229 0.07704 T-RATIO < COEF/S.D 3.17 3.92 S 1.987 R-SQUARED * 46.1 PERCENT R-SQUARED = 43.1 PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 1 18 19 SS 60.753 71,047 131.800 MS=SS/DF 60.753 3.947 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 2,88 MTB > >NAME Cll 'ST X2',C12 'PRED X2' MTB > > INFO COLUMN Cl C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 NAME T XI X2 E M Y RESID ST RESID PRED Y ST XI COUNT 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 I,of l.% M3 3 i "2 Ay f TEH 0532579 DUP050033847 CU Cl 2 ST X2 PRED X2 20 20 CONSTANTS USED! K4S K50 MTB > MTB > MTB > MTB > ROW >1_ET 013=02-010 >LET 014=03-012 >NAME Cl3 'XI RESID >PRINT Cl3 Cl 4 XI RESID X2 RESID 1 0.428571 -1.22857 2 -0.100752 0.46917 3 -0.630075 2.16692 4 0.840602 -0.13534 5 D.311278 1.56241 6 -0.218045 -2.73985 7 -0.747368 2.95789 8 0.723308 -1.34436 9 0.193985 -3.64662 10 -0.335338 2.05113 11 -0.864662 -0.25113 12 0.606015 1.44662 13 0.076692 -0.85564 14 -G.452631 -3.15789 15 -0.981955 2.53985 16 0.488722 -1.76241 17 -0.040601 -0.06466 18 -0.569925 1.63308 19 0.900752 -0.66917 20 0.371429 1.02857 MTB > >REGRESS 05 ON 3 PRED 013 C14 Cl THE s REEGGRKEESSS16N~QUATI ON M =1 20.8 f (4.061:1 RESID 4(3.20 1X2 RESID +\6.83 COLUMN XI RESID X2 RESID T COEFFICIENT 20.755 4.058 3.1988 6.8846 ST. DEV. OF COEF. 2.098 1.897 0.5729 0.1751 T-RATIO * COEF/S.D. 9.89 2.14 5.58 39.31 S = 4.516 R-SQUARED m 99.0 PERCENT R-SQUARED 98.8 PERCENT, ADJUSTED 1 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DUE TO REGRESSION RESIDUAL TOTAL DF 3 16 19 SS 32156 326 32482 MS< 107, CONTINUED > FURTHER ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SS EXPLAINED BY EACH VARIABLE WHEN ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN DUE TO DF SS REGRESSION 3 32156 XI RESID 1 1 X2 RESID 1 636 T 1 31520 TEH 0532580 DUP050033848 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC =1.34 # o-SSSk > *111 g'l 5 TEH 0532581 DUP050033849 N 3 3 8 2 8 .0 2 TEH 0532582 DUP050033850 DUP050033851 K Prafh Outline. ib\r Pei Lab PspartL f-tg' 0 T;He: Oredl is *P fieejhikii B>h>txd Lead. Leue-fs flur/y AJ/HSmBSK -Pbjoie' PdaHonsSuip to Vn< LszOuiS xpp$ur, , Hs A, Bockj round c h / Use ot A?Bmv&s 2 sp/uaty rrsu/Ls Proposed ^asHh*x Jbu-dL de^t^daSUado B. JQndicdvnonb op @&sdo*u Lnadl ea tiayrv* Cfrh'hribuLvr to Deo)the P dlpeoP-dead? dUods C. Purpose, oP report' -- Litwi4nJl*K OK, pYtVtQUS dMaLyses re laM hj yUfidl dUaA -l-o U*t JUaJL erpQsa*& " fiJoJioruJL <jSSoli*\j ie,od) 6*TMsu*+ph'r*e ** failure, to propul^ account toe le^koeeto si'4e U4V^itf>vi ___ AJuL*4t**S> d&e*, u b?oH%S rjt^-<j SaZ*^ -adt -4-j P ' JE. /Vhhwss Jt Study L). Study desiyAr ^ PopuU&h'&K* op interest /demofr*pkScS " Samples Selected /use eP feed OjeijhH ~ J. bherertj / sites visited? . Purpose* of s4ud^ " CvoSSSfdfo^d) Snapshot , Observed dectinc. during Pour t/eaas study period * " Pot nci<D*~d taifXj dec/o*Cs u%, A/sXcr^<D ^aarttlo *&+<P e&mt*upt/n* TEH 0532584 DUP050033852 Z23JZ* A, Lt'tdl S/pastwL' a&$th'ne. 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AUed fpr a* fuJc> <tpy>raa.C'k> *fl0e &\rr0ir -kfnv U* bdAwxdl cfofa. a*ij c o m 'T; bt, Aasuct/edP 3, " " ^ S$S j&ifahv pfc a c (^'u s }y w >*z " Art. /Wi'< j MmU4* / fct&ouAS <s d/fe~ a^dyiUd /h44(&iJl ~~ $e&\dUui& HHwvt Su^jJL^a "* Pltf OpKMYlbvStX-*** ** Mt#ye&c tyktj -h'mp, fey-tn. fo-h j)*J- fn, Mjdk# Pre^uadbuks ep <daA*~ A> CoVdriaf-es 4$ OPvdjcJdir- -- Trifle he&etUif bu Sfbf fh'h /to heft w Table tf $iJ<s, * XPf4 6oiflw Vu v v v n 44 <U>Wa 4* dcrv^^e XCtonHs ^ ~" VaUt^i co\)&riA^s, '- X1*4-*y pr C.-f^lcHc V+<. Vtt/rf^KO U>rhu 6fb ^ P$U JZbr><~ -- (Act o (- C'^vi^pW-W \ftC'<&Z /cfiunhc of fecercfe xclud*<& ~~~ 5*j2Ae&fi'&*\, C P CoOOrio-bcs for ~ fJswJk> erf Qouartod-e.* Ui-edt (im*c ^ JTp ykr- refer****} *" L&&4 urf, ** v CQUariode ** TEH 0532586 DUP050033854 JZ&i At S'4e LvMticj<u23 \U?, 2^ 2-tJ C^-vw^frO^? ~ P u|Vu>s-Vic o Atfij. $y4< / k.v'wif w?'t-H^ iv^Vac^O-H-S t vvuiAdL Zu) VM jSZ<tW? Si-j-t! iH&tt4w THwto 4- v'aw cJe'ystts 8, G^foJ^u/ Si4-. Hoc2ifi C^S\cfiJU40 / . ; * ^ x/> U4**& '"*' *v Hbsttvwt-a ^C^sC^rt^-cf* " j& Rj- Ai^tjdh (\Mt*> ^ j^V " 5 ta<< 4*Afc|M<3 ^5k/ - ViU^tUMu. //fte&J? /? ^ tJ&L 'S' les-V- &>r 0*jjf h ^ /VHaeUg A Qs, E^Mv ao MM UsmtflAjUv ac P Ttwws. "TfxW? a^L &&& L&*<& C**dvihuCb* " AJfl+6 Is-H'W. Cedt(tn<6^j fct&A/.*e*v' ^2J> /^ ^ *"' fypfsUX- S/^_, sf- ~T7p*j C* *"' o*fi bM.&*&<**$ fey** '"* (^6-vvd^<4X^wio V WtftsA" ^ i-Wtvt. D > Sc^VA/VVLdA^ - fc^-v* wudi.es -F ><- %& ,r i - 0 44, C'tat-of 0*f vd-fcjf' 2 'StemXJz f*b ^ O-rdLj lls taAjdh r^St^% wUm. g -ix &j ^ tfrHSidjtscuP, "" Sl^* 4y *^ /UwuttVd <^j1(jli ^(H. t. t-T TEH 0532587 DUP050033855 / l/f^i 4. OGJL- \)*AAa~<4 tfisyu* 3. n*dUt C, 7~ts*hf 7*0*4 D. \fcuio>fOL />*g, (.U4>f~ "faciei 4 / if (Z* &*jp 0-*\ sif*. -*ff**& & A^cth si+ut&X, 2A * as .CU^q L&is. o ^a SL Cd^V^pM^M^K. A"f* (?<?,tt<& /), JXtP^iCj" ^LiXCxZaiJ du\oJU^40 vK P*ctctf" fi. 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HA UAU^hiy -^t***S h\gast%4, UK 7JT f y* J x&cs y 6#-t /U^7~; 7C ) 6~/<*%7Sj &l**j 37S f~ d <3&s O^ryy^udje^ t - Ajof-c C~&c 0t*J7S* jiAjutAr tf-*v 170 6 r-ce&dlst li/i/lu^ (- 7500 4h** tfPdt Aec*u&a '3s - fA d-) 0jfki tAcJtudUy X 6*J & / (to 9* X ACjC' /Kodt} TEH DUP050033860 t f\i*h TEH 0532593 DUP050033861 ; . : - /X~r f l o\ p'roues ; 0 TivrMi. W'j&vxd? yekteM4H~ in, e&Uc st-fc ts wiVlu Y)0.jrjd>\*P 4y "v !<^ 0 &Cur~f fr<n*s suT(/-4j UJfiXs jYJUy<4x is fn<&wtd**d /te**xL h<vhfX6v*J? iS H<rj~ a* a^propridtlr surlro^a/c /or S^eU'fjc, 9iho 0A.f>*Jur < "%~ StuudJ (JbujuLsCop <Zmo c > u<uX^ i~7 * OfiMs &M/U/n (ex.o/, A/*jc> *ths 3 A//f?W&C% TEH 0532594 (rCtfr 75~ </ fy if & (xCur If v j l yJaj-ijaS fh iff tn BfJ> en if n y* s. ,*{*Hf C p - ooo3?) r - ,wt (f-< ooo\) r- ~.\ou ( p s.^) Y''** -, to& ( f~ ><* *) r= mr (f - / <>c>)) DUP050033862 $cs\dU*i4ie (jJ itVU* 5VU C e) eij L&+4L W)Vi4e ^ EUc-k O-Wv^u KMole UfWk^ (_ RumJ?C ^ ^ * Gu^kJl A^hGUJ'ttJfCtkj (4 /W *CVuU C5^<S> X* Tgj^ (& ~Hys) PM #* U>tO C ^\0jt-cc) CIfyW >{0)00$} 9*+ ? u**wc RgacH, ~*Ss><4is j^-lOfsir Curr-^ct La^ d. wiowfW' lij> vAfl^ivH^ Loj 2 vyvoAlftt* ^ ae>W* i^c-lu.<Uci )iv analyses, of covaria^^c* (f) L.4AefL a,\$o <h a. />|\'4` Qu U&y " (z} 3^/- WifKAv a*"rf Si-Vfi. &+*&hjSS all 4u j o ufcu^ -*- p \)ttr<Mt* ea<jep4 CW_Tn ) f vert- \v\ciuJLeX flxvvfrvij TEH 0532595 DUP050033863 fypfiuA Iyhc AI' 7ish fir ffe* (/J'rfaxv* Srka- -* ' V /iHS Mt4uL / " " Z* " Zk) ; ' v' VJ.W8 V ; 27. 3<5fS * /06$9*7 >o IfijstAJ? 6rJ \Z 2 -' . 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