Document gbxO1JmOErnDvRwKjLX81LyQ9

PJM's Evolving Resource Mix and System Reliability Natalie Tacka 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00001 Rig Productivity (mcf/rig/day) Main Driver: Natural Gas ^V' J? ^O0"^ J? J? J? C? ^o0' -^ \N ^O0' ^ V$V nV nV nV n^ ^V ? n? N53 nV nV nV nV ^` o<5` s^ \SV I"i iyn^3s\/111^5 Niobrara vnnimmmmm --Eagle Ford --Anadarko --Bakken Permian n\ N*1 n'' ^` o0' ^ V$V * Source: EIA. Drilling Productivity Report. October 2017. 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00002 Declining Electricity Demand Growth Load (MW) 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 2013 Load Forecast 2014 Load Forecast 2015 Load Forecast 2016 Load Forecast 2017 Load Forecast 120,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Year Mb I H Miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00003 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA Generation Retirements ED_001523_00006050-00004 MW 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Since 2007 2008/2009 2010/2011 Capacity Market Results t Demand Response 2012/2013 2014/2015 Delivery Year 2016/2017 2018/2019 2020/2021 includes solar & wind at nameplate, hydro and wood 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00005 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 Changing Energy Market Trends Wind Waste Hydro Oil Nuclear Natural Gas Coal * Source: Monitoring Analytics, LLC. 2016 State of the Market Report for PJM. Mar. 9, 2017. 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00006  Define resource diversity Define reliability attributes and measure capabilities of different resource types to provide these attributes Analyze resource diversity trajectory and potential impacts on reliability 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00007 Nuclear: 34.7% 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA Gas: 26.4% Variety & Balance (% Annual Energy) ED_001523_00006050-00008 Contribution of each resource type to a particular attribute 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA Essential Reliability Attributes Capabilities needed by the grid to ensure reliability Qualitative approach to describing resource attributes essential for system reliability ED_001523_00006050-00009 Specific Reliability Attributes Different resource types have different operational characteristics that aid in maintaining system reliability 1 MW w/ Attributes Resource 1 Resource 2 Resource 3 Attribute Capability Portfolio B 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00010 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA Approach ED_001523_00006050-00011 100 r ___ . __--... 80 ... ............. 111^^ .. 60 j Bgg... 40 j___ .......... ... ......... 20 mH Expected Near-Term Portfolio 0 J__ Natural Gas Replacement of Moderate Coal & Nuclear Retirements 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA Establish Portfolios )ther Renewable | Demand Response | Battery/ Storage | Hydro .Vind I >olar I Nuclear )il Natural Gas >oal Natural Sas Replacement of High Coal & Nuclear Retirements Renewable Replacement of High Coal & Nuclear Retirements ED_001523_00006050-00012 Composite Reliability Attribute CRI Reliability Index for each Operational State Reliability Attribute Ratios: Attribute 1 Capability (Portfolio A) Attribute 1 Capability (Baseline Portfolio) Quantified Reliability Attributes 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00013 Findings - Reliability Attribute Capability Frequency Response Capability ---- Expected Near Term Portfolio Natural Gas Replacement of Moderate Coal & Nuclear Retirements Illustrative - . ' Natural Gas Replacement of High Coal & Nuclear =-- Future Retirements Portfolios . Renewable Replacement of High Guai K Nuclear Retirements 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00014 % Share Unforced Capacity 100 80 60 40 20 o 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA Findings - Reliability Index 1.2 PgiHJhv". ; Other 1 `Wind Solar `Natural Gas i Nuclear 0.9 Coal 0.8 0.7 0.6 ED_001523_00006050-00015 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA Distribution of Results ... K : 4 : 11.4% t" ` i % 4-, !e 4 " - < 15.0 4 Hv47 I4;tt.ih.f44vr.' Performance Category Min Max LOLE Criterion hifejubk At-`cr Faded "r.^r Perfarmn . Ih;ri Ikwhii.Gre2-lh.i!H4-l ae D-jr ibk- 3/0 144 F.M . .. f. .... r.. .... 10 .4 f/f.' LCU 111 3.95 1.11 Mei PJM2017 ED_001523_00006050-00016 Findings - Impact of Diversity filter urrent ; /i.. less IWao&selne-- WskOnderpwfer Infeasibly . ^Desirably .. . 0.8 Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index (SW) 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006050-00017