Document g6kM5kQBnqRkNwxBeX9zB0N

> ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS Facts and Forecasts B E Goodrich /r BUSINESS RESEARCH MARCH 1974 i BFG23877 23113001 Comments on the Business Outlook The slowdown in economic activity previously envisioned for 1974 is being aggravated by the adverse impacts of energ conservation and sharp increases in energy costs on consumer spending. In fact, when complete economic data become available, it will undoubtedly indicate that the economy turned downward in December. Real output is expected to decline in the first half of 1974, reflecting further reductions in consumer spending and outlays for residential construction. Business spending for new plant and equipment is also expected to slow as corporate profits decline. And, net exports are forecast to decline as the result of sharply increased prices of foreign crude oil imports. A resumption in growth is anticipated in the second half of 1974, reflecting an improvement in consumer sentiment, an up turn in housing, and the effects of more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. This anticipated recovery in overall economic activity should be sufficient to offset the current decline and hold the average level of real output in 1974 approx imately fiat. Under these slack economic conditions, the immediate termination of all wage and price controls could make a substantial contribution toward moderating the rate of inflation and regaining an orderly expansion of our nation's econ omy by the end of this year. GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS 1, Gross National Product___ 2. Personal Consumption Expenditures..................... 3. Government Purchases of Goods and Services..... 4. Plant and Equipment Outlays................................... 5. Disposable Personal Income 6. FRB Index of Industrial Production............................. 7. Housing Starts (Private).... Units of Measure $ billion Year 1972 1,155.2 $ billion 726.5 $ billion 255.0 $ billion $ billion 88.4 797.0 1967=100 000 starts 115.2 2,357 Year 1973 1,288.2 805.0 277.2 100 882.6 125.4 2,042 4th Q. 1973 1,334.0 Quarterly Totals At Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates 829.0 285.8 104 918.0 127.0 1,566 MOTOR VEHICLES 8. Auto Production................... 000 vehicles 8,822 9. Truck and Bus Production.... 000 vehicles 2,476 10. Wheel-Type Tractor Shipments.............................. 000 vehicles 197 11. Auto Registrations, end of year............................. 000 vehicles 96,860 12. Truck-Bus Registrations, end of year............................. 000 vehicles 21,646 13. Autos, 2 years and older..... 000 vehicles 66,200 14. Trucks-Buses, 2 years and older.................. 000 vehicles 15,200 9,661 3,007 214 101,237 23,241 70,500 16,000 Quarterly Totals 2311300Z BFG23878 RUBBER CONSUMPTION Quarterly Totals Units of Measure Year 1972 15. U.S.A. New Rubber Consumption.................. .. 000 long tons 2,937 16. Natural.......................... ... 000 long tons 17. Synthetic....................... ... 000 long tons 18. % Synthetic... ............... ............................ Other Free World New Rubber Consumption......... 000 long tons 641 2,296 78.2 4,693 20. Natural.......................... 21. Synthetic....................... 22. % Synthetic.................. 000 long tons 000 long tone 1,840 2,853 60.8 Year 1973 3,086 685 2,401 77.8 5,000 1,950 3,050 61.0 Percent Change 4th Q. 1973 780 174 605 77.6 1,250 495 755 60.4 INDUSTRY SALES FOR MAJOR B.F.GOODRICH PRODUCT LINES 23. Total Pneumatic Tires -- Shipments.............................. mil. tires Passenger Car Tire Shipments 24. Original Equipment....... mil. tires 25. Replacement................... mil. tires Truck>Bus Tire Shipments 26. Original Equipment....... 27. Mobile Home O.E_____ 28. Replacement................... mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires Farm Tire Shipments* 29. Original Equipment....... 30. Replacement................... 31. Industrial Rubber Hose Dollar Shipments Index ..... 32. Industrial Rubber Belting Dollar Shipments Index___ 33. PVC Resin -- Sales of Domestic Production........... mil. tires mil. tires 1967-100 1967-100 mil. lbs. Excludes garden tractor tire shipments. 242.4 51.3 141.3 9.3 3.2 20.1 1.6 3.0 127 118 4,337 Quarterly Totals 23113003 BFG23879 FIVE-YEAR HISTORY Units of Measure General Business Indicators 1. Gross National Product................................................. 2. Personal Consumption Expenditures...................... 3. Government Purchases of Goods and Services. . . 4. Plant and Equipment Outlays...................................... 5. Disposable Personal Income........................................ 6. FRB Index of Industrial Production........................... 7. Housing Starts (Private)............................................... Motor Vehicles 8. Auto Production.............................................................. 9. Truck and Bus Production............................................ 10. Wheel-Type Tractor Shipments................................... 11. Auto Registrations, end of year................................... 12. Truck-Bus Registrations, end of year........................ 13. Autos, 2 years and older............................................... 14. Trucks-Buses, 2 years and older................................. Rubber Consumption 15. U.S.A. New Rubber Consumption............................... 16. Natural....................................................................... 17. Synthetic.................................................................... 18. % Synthetic.............................................. ................ 19. Other Free World New Rubber Consumption........... 20. Natural....................................................................... 21. Synthetic.................................................................... 22. % Synthetic.............................................................. Industry Sales 23. Total Pneumatic Tires -- Shipments.......................... Passenger Car Tire Shipments 24. Original Equipment.................................................. 26. Replacement............................................................. Truck-Bus Tire Shipments 26. Original Equipment ............................................... 27. Mobile Home O.E. ................................................ 28. Replacement ........................................................ Farm Tire Shipments* 29. Original Equipment.................................... ........... 30. Replacement............................................................ 31. Industrial Rubber Hose Dollar Shipments Index........................................................ 32. Industrial Rubber Belting Dollar Shipments Index........................................................ 33. PVC Resin -- Sales of Domestic Production............ $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion 1967 = 100 000 starts 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires 1967-100 1967 -100 mil. lbs. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 793.9 492.1 180.1 65.5 546.3 100 1,292 864.2 536.2 199.6 67.8 591.0 106 1.50B 930.3 579.5 210.0 75.6 634.4 111 1,467 977.1 617.6 219.5 79.7 691.7 107 1,434 1,055.5 667.2 234.3 81.2 746.0 107 2,052 7,407 1,585 241 80,415 16,531 55,324 12,162 8,843 1,951 212 63,693 17,346 5B,287 12,800 8,219 1,963 194 86,861 18,235 60,861 13,330 6,546 1,717 175 89,280 19,127 63,629 13,825 8,578 2,071 165 92,800 20,200 66,200 14,440 2,117 489 1,628 76.9 3,087 1,406 1,681 54.5 2,478 582 1,896 76.5 3,469 1,519 1,950 56.2 2,622 598 2,024 77.2 3,856 1,614 2,242 58.1 2,477 559 1,918 77.4 4,238 1,722 2,516 59.4 2,683 578 2,105 78.5 4,524 1,799 2,725 60.2 185.4 212.8 219.2 207.8 40.8 108.5 49.9 121.1 46.2 129.1 37.5 129.6 5.7 6.8 7.2 6.2 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 14.4 16.3 17.3 16.7 2.6 3.1 100 100 2,078 2.8 3.1 106 113 2,560 1.3 3.0 119 114 2,819 1.4 2.6 107 111 2,965 228.0 48.6 135.0 7.4 2.8 18.4 1.3 2.9 112 116 3,452 Totals may not add doe to rounding. *Excludes garden tractor tire shipments. LfTHO. IK U.S.A. 23113004 BFG23880