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IMPERIAL CANCER RESEARCH FUND
QMrEpUcdklo0iDd Clinical Trials Unit
UN1VBU1TY OB OXFORD
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iUm- Mmhti noruioi m neu mu, bju Ck*4 IfiUj} 5374] * ul
yfebbllMd Oxford oxl jQo
10 October 1970
Mr. K. Sykes TBA Industrial Pro^cto Ltd.
P.O. Bos 40
Bochdale Lancs OL19 7K)
Dear Beg,
The 'Hew Scientist ' trtlefc on "A scale for^Basurlng risks seesis fairly sensible, altowgh the InitialBcotation from
Richard Doll, tbat envlronsj^tal agents "-*i e the aajority
of all cancers. Is, as usualRused extri
isleadingly.
By "environmental", be meant Everything
ed by life-style
in the widest sense, lndudlnBsex, whi; causes cervical
cancer, having a first baby afRar the
of 30. which
increases the risk pf breast clctr,
a Hesters diet, which
seems to be correlated with tbeviak cancer. Doll wodld also say t^t
breast and colo-rectal than S% of cancers
are caused by industrial exposui
1 have presented the results of
ie of my predictions in
terms of "percentage dying as a, Lult of asbestos exposure"
because this is always asked fq
The original B.O.H.S.
report was necessarily -~r*--y 1 his way, because erepltations are not fatal, and th^T.C.A articularly asked me to
cite percentages wbo would gm cance following various periods
of exposure at various fibiwlevels,
t 1% getting asbestos-
induced cancer sounds much^nrse than loss of expected life
of less than 3 months, wbjpn Is what 1factually means.
Incidentally, you can gelpa rough idea mf the "percentages killed" corresponding tatbe table of lAa of expected life in
the New Scientist by d^Kding by IS year^k Thus, for example*,
if a coal-miner enter^H the Industry at fta 20 loess on
average 155 days of ^Bected life, about 3^(1.e. 155/(365x15) )
of life-long miners mm killed by mining.
I have always thoiw that risks of the orde: .of 1% or 3% ars
quite acceptable,^it many people (including
Allardice)
strongly dlsagrejV and it is after all a matt of personal
Judgement. Th^Rrouble is that you could hari 1 point of view,Because your motives would recei
than what youBctually said. It is, to say the
present such a mors attention
t, a can of
worn.
Touraa/.ncerely,
Julian Psto irAhiHi llli Umlrt la nee, UUa veu Xs
Dr. i.T. Allaidlee