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TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Issues in Ecobalances Ronald L. McCreedy VCM Product Steward Dow Chemical U.S.A. 2020 Dow Center Midland, Michigan 48674 CTL007210 SEPT 2-4, 1992 1 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Overview] Vision Inventory Impact VI / Chem Systems Study CTL007211 SEPT 2-4, 1992 2 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Vision of Ecobalancesj Minimize Adverse Impacts on the Environment Product Planning and Risk Management ^ Maintain and Improve Quality of Life Maintain Sustainable Business Growth CTL007212 SEPT 2-4, 1992 3 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Ecobalance Methodology! INVENTORY CTL007213 SEPT 2-4, 1992 4 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE----- Impact Assessment! INPUTS ckicor^v RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS > OUTPUTS H MFG & PROCESSING > ZH^ TRANSPORTATION USE/REUSE j. WATER AIR SOLID WASTE OTHER RELEASES USABLE PRODUCTS RECYCLE H WASTE MANAGEMENT CTL007215 SEPT 2-4, 1992 6 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Impact - Stressors] STRESSORS: Properties that may lead to adverse human or environmental conditions and can provide a linkage between inventory data and impact. O Toxicity O Ozone Depletion O Radiation O Accidents O Oxidants O Nutrients 7 O Climate Change O Acidification O Biological CTL007216 SEPT 2-4, 1992 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE = VI / CSI Packaging Ecobalancej Prepared by Chem Systems Inc. for The Vinyl Institute. PVC Applications Studied: O 32 ounce Household Cleaner Bottles (PVC, Glass HDPE) O 32 ounce Food Oil Bottles (PVC, PET) O Thermoformed Blister Paks (PVC, PETG) O Rigid Folded Cartons (PVC, Bleach Kraft Paperboard) O Flexible Film Meat Wrap (PVC, PE coated Butcher Paper) CTL007217 SEPT 2-4, 1992 8 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Data Sources Utilized Chem Systems Technology Database U.S.A. Government Energy Reports USA 1988 Toxic Release Inventory Report 1989 EPA Science Advisory Board Report CTL007218 SEPT 2-4, 1992 9 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Ecobalance Computer Modules! Natural Gas Processing Natural Gas Production Fuel Module Petroleum Refining Oxygen Utilities Ethylene Ethylene Oxide Ethylene Glycol P-Xylene Terephthalic Acid 10 Benzene Methanol Dimethyl Terephthalate Hydrogen Cyclohexane Dimethanol Chlorine PVC Plastics Fabrication HDPE LDPE PET PETG Kraft Pulp Butcher Paper SBS Paperboard Ammonia Nitric Acid Adipic Acid 2-Ethylhexanol di-octyl Adipate Cyclohexane CTL007219 SEPT 2-4, 1992 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE VI / CSI Ecobalance Conclusions! PVC generally requires less energy than the alternatives PVC creates substantially less carbon dioxide Inventory data variation makes impact assessment difficult Inventory methodology and databases need standardization Impact methodology has not been developed Use ecobalances to improve products and processes Do not use ecobalances to "micro-manage" economy CTL007220 SEPT 2-4, 1992 11 TRIPARTITE CONFERENCE Additional References! "COPPE INFO BACKGROUNDER - ISSUES IN LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT," Council on Plastics and Packaging in the Environment, September 1991 "AN LCA ON PVC PACKAGING - A NEW LOOK AT METHODOLOGY AND USE OF LCA'S," Ron Cascone, Chem Systems Inc., September 1991 "NEW LIFECYCLE STUDY SHOWS ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF VINYL," Nora Jacobs, Edward Howard & Company, May 1992 "VINYL PRODUCTS LIFECYCLE ASSESSMENT - A REPORT PREPARED FOR THE VINYL INSTITUTE," Chem Systems Inc, March 1992 CTL007221 SEPT 2-4, 1992 12 COPPE BACKGROUNDER L/ WV?- V.- V/ , ;N.--' V^.r' l/ 1! L: Life Cycle Assessment V.'nst is the Issue? Environmental professional?, policy makers, and the general public are very interested in having the means to accurately and comprehensively measure the environmental consequences of products and packages. These include the raw materials, energy and emissions related to each step of a product's hfecvcle. One devel oping procedure for doing this is termed "product life cycle analysis," "ecobalance," "cradle-to-grave" or "life cycle assessments" (LCA). Such studies can be valuable tools for evaluating the environmental consequences and opportunities for making meaningful improvements in a product, process, or activity. However, the concept can benefit from further development. Additional research will enhance our understanding of how to conduct life cycle assess ments and how to better interpret the results. Of immediate importance is how LCAs are used while the methodology is being further developed and refined. More to the point: should legislators and solid waste officials consider LCAs--as they are currently conducted--to formulate public policy? V.'het are `Life Cycle Assessments'? . LCAs are an objective, three-part process used to evaluate the environmental impact of a product, process, or activity. The first step involves an inventory of energy, resource use and emissions during each step of a product's "life," starting with the extraction of raw materials from the ground and continuing with the various processing, manufacturing, fabrication, and transportation steps, including the acts of consumption, disposal, or recovery for recycling. The second step involves measuring and assessing the environmental impact of the energy, materials use and emissions inventory'. Step three evaluates opportu nities and areas for improvement. Most LCAs conducted today focus on the inventory component only. These studies are useful sources of information on resource usage and environmental emissions, and can serve as the basis for improvement analysis. To date, LCAs have been effectively used to evaluate packaging options and thereby reduce en ergy use and solid waste. A complete life-cycle assessment consists of three separate, but interrelated components. Inventory Most attempts to develop life cycle assessments have focused on the inventory component. Consid erable research is needed to develop the impact and improvement analysis. Life Cycle Inventory. An objective, data-based process of quantifying energy and raw material requirements, air and water emissions, solid waste and other environmental releases incurred through out the life cycle of a product, process or activity. Life Cycle Impact Analysis. A technical, quantita tive, and/or qualitative process to characterize and assess the environmental effects of energv, materials and emissions identified in the life cycle inventorv. The assessment should include both environmental and human health considerations. Life Cycle Improvement Analysis. A systematic evaluation of opportunities to reduce the environ mental impact associated with energy and raw materials use and emissions throughout a prod uct's, process's or activity's entire "life." ________________________ Source 9ETAC.1991 However, such studies do not qualify all envi ronmental consequences of a product. In 1990, lead ing LCA experts meeting in a workshop sponsored by the Society of Environmental Toxicologv and Chemis try (SETAC) proposed a technical framework for meas uring each step of a life cvcle inventory (see figure?). COUNCIL ON PLASTIC? AND P.ACKACING IN THE ENVIRONMENT T M CONNECTICUT - \ - NLE N NO; O' C 2;i: CTL007222 T'^c *".'k r .'.*l cw c \ r.rc i rr !^'-r'.ViU.rwci' '} c. x ti1icut ion ?T. tr? " ? JvrT? t'or., -:' tj'c re-use nv.ir.tenence, ?> rec\ cling; and p; emission? ar.d waste management In gene; a I, each stage recedes ot materia]? and energ\ and a. *;*. J? mater;?.]? or energ\ and w asie emission?. no'a,, et or pacNagu'j; *. gm ' ** eo .; u.v_vu. re'-.. * n. nwan.:' gw iionmci'.t.'.l vopre', c"r.v:'.Ar LCA. .'c.'.'s to cor.:.rm that a gam n one col\'::c:i (e g , :vd.:ccd solid waste generated b\ a manufacturer' is no: ccmuron.used bv a ^tep backward ir. another. In ;L.:s w a\, LCAs are a valuable interna! decision-making tool for process design, product moditications and even tire m- \ enting of new products Life Cycle Inventory ii __, Raw Material* Acquisition _J IdojIs ( Ene'sy ---- Raw Materials 1 Manufacturing Processing, and Permutation D stribution and Transportation Use Re-Use Maintenance Recycle i T Waste Management i i 1 --^ Water Effluents - Airoorne Emissions -- Sclid Wastes _ Other Releases i Usa&le Products | $> stem Bounoary sptiSIT-C The largest number of LCAs performed todav are for usebv private companies to examine their own products in comparison to a modified version of the same product, or to new or pro posed products. Specifically, LCAs are valuable tools to: Provide a broad view of the trade-offs asso ciated with product modifications (such as source reduction/lightweightmg, use of recycled content and material substitution', raw material souicing (agricultural \ s fossil fuel derived', technclogv changes dr. process or materials' and different waste management options; Serve as a baseline tor comparison with future modifications, De\ elop a method to quantity and monitor product's energy consumption and emissions. In addition, LCAs can be used to develop information on a single product in an effort to identify potential resource and waste reductions associated with individual steps of the manufac turing process (raw material extraction, fabrica tion, transportation, etc.). Resources needed to construct buildings and manu facturing equipment are generally not included in LCA studies. To do so would require averaging these re sources over a very large number of items produced during the life of the equipment, and therefore would be too small to measure. Activities of plant personnel, such as space condition ing, lunchroom trash and water pollution from sanitary facilities are not included since they would occur whether the product is manufactured or not. One major result from the SETAC workshop was agreement that data from the inventor}' assessment, such as air and water emissions, have different environ mental impacts and should be reported individual!}'. Results of inventorv assessments have sometimes been added together without "weighing" the relative envi ronmental impact of these emissions. However, the comprehensive nature of LCAs makes objective, scientifically-sound "weighing" schemes difficult. A key benefit of LCAs is that thev provide compa nies a method to ensure new manufacturing processes, Beyond the life cvcle inventory, complete LCAs need to include impact and improvement analvsis. However, the inventories alone have led to significant environmental progress by uncovering opportunities to reduce energv and waste. Comparing the impact of products or processes that use different technologies is extremely difficult. For example, one process may have mostly air emissions, and another, water borne releases. Xo scientific guidelines have been established to objectively compare these results. Both the Environmental Protection Agencv (EPA) and SETAC recommend further effort in these areas. In addition, LCAs do not "weigh" the relative im portance of inputs or emissions (such as making energv consumption more important than raw material con sumption). X'or do LCAs include risk assessments of each step of the manufacturing process, since no scien tific system has been established to apply risk assess ments to LCAs or to evaluate the results. Also impor tant is a thorough understanding of all assumptions made about LCA's inputs, processes and emissions is required to quantify and judge impacts. CTL007223 Case Study: Evaluating Product Packaging Through LCA i Cue c me si Lint s'LCA? :s to p'CV.de corny: ! 07 ir.rrL.:y.`,'y .':'.*.V':5 ;70 ''luCCd 1CS1 it ill rriC0111'ig`l'.l C'li 'C'V'`C} I ,vi LCA icas ccuovctcd on varioi,s pacCrguig strategies a /y 7 `aba: co'iditic'ior yioduet Only tour ct the many J options studied O'CS'ioien here. <Fci a uniform comparison, ihc. .7 based upi on 1,000 liters c`'singole-strenOg' th fproduct ) The table indicates 'Percent dec'cases foi each energy and on; 'ion category as compared to a non-iecycled, 64 oz. bot- tie made of idiom, high-density polyethylene (HOPE). i Strategies for Packaging Improvement: 1. Incorporate 25T recycled HDPE into the virgin HDPE bottle. 2. Assume 25"c consumer recycling of the virgin HDPE bottle. Percent Decrease in Energy Usage Process Transport Feedstock 30 9 32 11 Market a concentrated (3x) product in smaller, virgin HDPE bottles. 55 53 56 Market concentrated (3x) product in 53 virgin paper carton to refill HDPE bottle 5$ 94 Percent Decrease in Emissions Solid Waterborne Airborne 0s (-4) 4 11 (-4) 5 55 54 55 91 40 62 These res: Its indicate that the s--o"urce reductio11n~s made rycssible b.v 'product-i "concentra.itii.oi n oPercd cc> reator reductions in life cycle angry requi'crnents mid emissions than cither i iccpcraticn of 25 percent recycled HOPE or a 25 percent iccycli'ig icde Product concentration vlus the reuse o`existing containers offered additional benefits. Rclatroe te the uon-rccycled virgin bottles, each c-f the `bur pacLiging options studied had reduced energy lequnernents and solid ivastc ennssiens It is important to note t'iat the emissions associated until each packaging option differ in composition, mid thus require a more detailed examination `or mcaningntl inicrpictation. This case study illustrates the merits of LCA, in. (1) providing a baseline as a reference for iruyovement; (2) guiding product'package development efforts; and <5; holding better understanding of ihe unique environmental attributes of different packaging stiategies. urcc D.li.l f. Li. rlc.-y A the Pr octet & Co":;1.7-: While the LCA concept is useful in developing in formation on resource usage and environmental emis sions, the concept requires further development. Therefore, using LCAs--as they are currently con ducted--as an instrument of public policy is premature. Yet, LCAs are currentlv beingo sugccgested as the basis for "green" labeling of products. Because LCA methodologv includes assumptions and average values, results may not be exact or apply to all situations. As such, results are best characterized as a range of values. In addition, LCA results are "snap shots" in time of processes and technology, and quantify most, but not all environmental consequences of a product. Therefore, specific comparisons between material types must be interpreted carefully and have a limited usefulness. LCAs should not be used to evalu ate products as either "good" or "bad," but rather to provide the perspective that environmental issues are not black and white. For example, LCAs can provide a basis for compar ing different products, and can illustrate that everv product consumes energy and has an environmental impact. Furthermore, LCAs are only one of the major studies required to obtain a complete and objective analysis of a product or process. Other questions, such as product protection and safetv, product/ package functionality, value, convenience, personal choice and need are more appropriated addressed bv other types of studies Recent efforts, like those of the SETAC Product LCA Advisory Group--which include's industrv, government, academia, and special interest groups-- are helping to bring more focus toward refining and improving the LCA process. The SETAC group's stated goal is to, "advance the science, practice, and application of LCAs to reduce the environmental burden and resource consumption associated with products, packaging, processes or activities." LCA practitioners in North America and Europe are moving forward to refine the LCA inventorv methodology, develop impact and improvement analysis, clarify definitions and terms, improve the emissions data base, develop a peer review process, and identifv future research needs. CTL007224 The L 5 E:w ironmc ntai Protect.on Agenc\ ha* obo formed a -.ask force to address the practice and use ot LCAs The task force includes representatn es of federal and state go\ emment agencies, industry, academia, environmental and consumer research groups The goal of the EPA task force is to "develop a method that can be used by industry and government to inform consumers about product choices, by product and packaging designers and manufacturers to produce products with fewer environmental effects, and by gov ernment policy makers to evaluate pollution prevention policy options. This project is part of an overall effort to create market-driven incentives for pollution preven tion." However, industry, environmental groups and academicians have expressed concern with the use of LCAs to address broad, public policy questions--as LCAs were not designed for this purpose. S'jtnrricry While LCAs hold great promise, the concept is relatively new and requires further development. LCA inventory methodology has been developed, and significant impro\ ements can be achieved using data from an inventory, but complete LCAs need to include impact and improvement analyses--which have not been developed. As such, until impact and improvement assessments can be incorporated, LCAs must be used very carefully when comparing different products or packages. Industry, environmental groups and academicians have expressed concern with the use of LCAs to address broad public policy questions. LCAs are ideal for evaluating specific improvements made to reduce resource and environmental effects, and for this reason are being used by industry. Products or packages may best be judged on their own merits and on improvements sought to reduce their total environmental consequences and energy/resource requirements. ' Z Z Z ,, ~ i A CYw;;"'LO'^ar ;*w ; *v :'c Pi -*.> / -- try i Tolu! Energy Ccisumynon v.e 11 5 , Franklm Associates, Ltd., Notember 1Q9d "An 0\ erview of LCA," W llham E. Franklm, Franklm Associates, Ltd , 1991. A Technical Framework for Life-Cycle Assessment, Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Janu ary 1991. Background Document on Clean Products Research and Im plementation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agencv, Office of Research and Development, October 1990. Comparative Energy and Environmental Impacts for So't Drink Delivery Systems, Franklin Associates, Ltd , March 19S9. Environmental Impacts of Polystyrene Foam and Molded Pulp Meat Trays, Midwest Research Institute, Project Xo. 3554-D, April 1972. "The Life Cvde Analysis Methodology," Jere D. Sellers, et. ah, Franklin Associates, Ltd., 1991. News Release, R. Parrish and J.Fava, Society of Environ mental Toxicology and Chemistry, August 30, 1990 and March S, 1991. "Outline of Presentation at Lifecycle Assessment: A Tool for the '90s Conference--SETAC," Bruce Vigon, Battelle Columbus, 1991. Resource and Environmental Profile Analysis of Foam Poly styrene and Bleached Paperboa<d Containers, Franklin Associates, Ltd., June 1990. Resource and Environmental Profile Analysis of Polyethylene and Unbleached Paper Grocery Sacks, Franklin Asso ciates, Ltd., June 1990. Resource & Environmental Profile Analysis of Plasties & Kon-Plastics Containers, R.G. Hunt and R.O. Welch, Midwest Research Institute, Project No. 3714-D, November 1974. SETAC Product LCA Advisory Croup Mission Statement, SETAC Foundation for Environmental Education, Inc., Pensacola, Fla., September, 1991. Written Testimony of Dr. fames A. Fava, Cham, SETAC Product LCA Advisory Croup, before the Federal Trade Commission, July 17,1991. What is COPPE? COPPE is the Council on Plastics and Packaging in the Environment, a coalition of packaging manufacturers, plastic resin producers, corporate packaging users, recvclers, consumer products companies, retailers and trade associations. It recognizes that the challenges in dealing with post consumer plastic packaging waste are both a fact of life and a societal issue that must be addressed. We hope that through sharing information on problems and solutions to them, we will help increase the foundation of knowledge upon which sound decisions will be made. For More Information: COPPE 1001 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. Suite 401 Washington. D.C. 20036 September 1991 Printed on recycled paper CTL007225 Wayne Interchange Plaza II J55 Route 46 West Wayne. NJ 07470 NEWS FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Nora C Jacobs Edward Howard &c Co. 216/781-2400 or Ronald F. Cascone Chem Systems Inc. 914/631-2828 NEW LIFECYCLE STUDY SHOWS ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF VINYL WAYNE, New jersey. May 15,1992 -- A new lifecycle assessment of vinyl packaging material shows that vinyl products require less energy and petroleum-derived raw materials in production than most comparable materials. The study, a year-long effort by Chem Systems Inc of Tarrytown, New York, also concluded that vinyl production creates substantially less carbon dioxide -- and potentially, less environmental impact -- than most other packaging materials. Carbon dioxide is a major contributor to the greenhouse effect. Comparisons in the study were made between vinyl (polyvinyl chloride or FVC) packaging and packaging made from glass, paperboard, paper and other plastics commonly used in similar packaging applications. "This lifecycle assessment strongly confirms that vinyl is an environmentally good product," said Robert Burnett, executive director of the Vinyl Institute. "Because vinyl consumes less energy than other packaging materials and is equivalent in its potential impact on the environment, society is well served by vinyl packaging." (more) The Vinyl Institute. A Division of The Society ot the Plastics Inaustry '"he ongmai coov or ooajment onritec on recvciec oaoef CTL007226 The study bv Chem Systems inc. also noted than Vinvi is the most stable and least environmentally dispersed end use for chlonne -- which "... leaves this element m a form essentially more inert than the salt from which it was made." The manufacture of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) -- from which vinyl is made -- is "a classic case of waste minimization," since virtually all material used to make VCM is recycled back into the process. A new membrane-based cell technology is being introduced into chlor-alkali manufacturing, which wiil improve energy efficiency and product quality while reducing potential environmental impact. Vinyl polymerization is a technology with "a very low discharge of VCM, since extremely strict standards were applied in the mid-1970s." The industry put the strict standards in place after studies showed that higher volume VCM discharges were linked to health problems in workers. Devices which rapidly and automatically identify and separate vinyl from other plastics in the mixed post-consumer waste stream permit vinyl to be recycled and reused. 'These conclusions, ail based on scientific fact, give public policy decision makers solid information to use as they consider the appropriate role for vinyl in our economy," Burnett said. "Clearly, the weight of evidence says vinyl deserves the support of everyone working to improve the environment." The Chem Systems study also marks an evolution in product lifecycle assessment methodology, according to Ronald F. Cascone, senior consultant for the work. He said new methodology for the study was developed based on a "critical analysis of the past and current state-of-the-art product lifecycle assessments. We recognized and attempted to overcome the many, and sometimes conflicting, criticisms of the methodology." (more; CTL007227 Lifecycle assessments attempt to catalog and analyze the total energy use and environmental emissions associated with a product from cradle to grave. Cascone said some current assessments "have obscure databases and assumptions, are out of date, are naive concerning industry, irrelevant in excess detail and not focused on the most important factors of energy use and emissions." In assessing vinyl packaging for the Vinyl Institute, Chem Systems relied on actual databases for energy and fuel use -- rather than academic models -- and on US. government emissions data from the Toxics Release Inventory (TRD. Chem Systems created a computer model for its assessment which accounts for the material and energy used and environmental releases per unit for each kind of packaging analyzed. "This model especially concentrates on materials conversions, the key energy and emission-intensive steps, such as oil refining, ethylene cracking, chlor-alkali production, glass melting, paper pulping, and monomer and polymer processes," Cascone said. He explained that the report represents a state-of-the-art lifecycle assessment which can be updated as new data is obtained. Vinyl used in packaging, the study notes, is only about 9 percent of the total domestic PVC virgin resin demand and compounded vinyl represents only about 7.5 percent of the total commodity plastics used in packaging in the U.S. Further information on the study can be obtained by contacting the Vinyl Institute, Wayne Interchange Plaza II, 155 Route 46 West, Wayne, N.J. 07470. The Vinyl Institute, a division of The Society of the Plastics Industry, Inc, is a national trade association representing the leading U.S. manufacturers of vinyl, vinyl feedstocks, additives and film and sheet products. The Vinyl Institute operates the Vinyl Environmental Resource Center (VERCE) which is a clearinghouse for information on vinyl and the environment VERCE can be reached at 1-800-969-VINYL or 969-8469. ### ctL007228 An LCA on PVC Packaging A New Look at Methodology and Use of LCAs Ron Cascone Senior Consultant September 1991 CHM SVST6MS Clam Syrians lac. 303 South Broadway Tarrytown, Naw York 10591 TdUnhnnn rQI41 K11 Tl*v 991 Baa Parclmll (Q1 4) mi.ARM ctloo7229 CHEM SVST6MS AN LCA ON PVC PACKAGING A NEW LOOK AT METHODOLOGY AND USE OF LCAs By Ronald F. Cascone Senior Consultant Chem Systems Inc. Tarrytown, NY I would like to tell you about an LCA project we have recently completed that Chem Systems believes, along with the Vinyl Institute, represents a milestone of progress in the field. Although some of Chem Systems' senior staff were among the original practitioners of energy-focused LCAs in the early 1970s, for NATO and other public and private sponsors, the company was not directly involved in the more recent spate of environmentally oriented LCAs. However, we were pursuing the related issues through many other activities of our core and environmental practices. When the Vinyl Institute asked us to perform an LCA on certain vinyl packaging products and some alternatives, we were able to make a fundamental appraisal of the whole subject, since we did not have any vested interest in the status quo. There have been for a long time some glaring flaws in LCAs, such as the tendency of presenters or users to attempt to add together the weights of emissions of vastly dissimilar materials, with or without "weighing factors", to derive glib, but meaningless "bottom lines" for comparisons. Also, seldom was the issue of data uncertainty broached. We proposed an approach that would address these and many other, sometimes divergent criticisms that have been leveled at LCAs recently. Clearly, the public is disenchanted with LCAs because of the conflicting conclusions that have been published, and because of reversals of decisions by businesses based on them. It gives people the impression that someone is "cooking the books", so that it is likely there will eventually be much resistance to prescriptions based on these studies of which materials, products or systems are best for the environment. The public generally believes that science has precise answers to concerns and problems, but they also tend to believe that industry and its scientists are barely to be trusted with their health and safety. Doonesbury (Garry Trudeau) expressed the public confusion and skepticism very well in a recent cartoon on the subject. CTL007230 2- - CHM SVSTEMS LCAs need to be made more accessible to critical review and capable of being regularly updated to reflect the rapidly changing conditions of industry and society. They should be based as much as possible on publically available data, not private communications and estimates, and should analyze the uncertainties in their data. They should provide and discuss frames of reference for understanding the relative importance of factors inventoried. It is not enough to say, "this process emits a million pounds of ammonia per yearl", without giving an understanding of what ammonia is, what it does to the environment, and what else emits it. It is widely agreed that dissimilar emissions should not be added together to achieve totals for comparisons, yet the practice continues. Pollutants are not fungible products like fuels, commodity materials, or electricity. LCAs should be performed, or at least guided, by individuals who are thoroughly expert and current in the industrial, utility, and other underlying processes used to obtain products. They should avoid facile assumptions in favor of their sponsors, or at least provide sensitivity analyses of the key assumptions. Their execution and analytical conclusions should reflect a healthy skepticism and acknowledgement of their limitations. All of these "shalts" and "shalt nots" pointed Chem Systems to the development of an automatically-solving Lotus 1,2,3 (Version 3.1) spreadsheet model with open access to assumptions and key parameters to enable changes over time or for sensitivity studies. Figure 1 illustrates the overall architecture of the model. Figure 2 indicates the structural relationships and information flows among the model's process modules and information sources. Our analysis also suggested that we reevaluate the traditional slate of inventoried pollutants to make them more responsive to the current state of knowledge and concerns. The 1990 report of the EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB), a committee of remarkably broad scientific and community representation, set global air pollutants and toxics emissions as the highest priorities that can be qualitatively inventoried. This led us to select an ordered slate of "greenhouse" and ozone-depleting gases (including C02 and methane), the bulk of materials in the federal Toxics Release Inventory (TRI), and the Criteria Air Pollutants (S02, NOx, CO, VOCs, and airborne particulates) as the priority species for our inventory. Figure 3 compares the 1988 estimated relative contributions of industrial processes and other sources of Criteria Pollutants in the U.S. -3- CHM SYSTEMS The TRI requires all significant manufacturing facilities to report annually on releases and transfers of 322 individual chemicals and groups. Figure 4 illustrates the scope of TRI releases considered in the study, as to chemical species in the TRI list, economic sectors covered, and relative magnitude of releases and transfers covered. Figure 5 indicates the complexity of the distribution of TRI chemicals among air, water, and land releases and transfers to treatment or disposal. We made our models, and exercised them on cases of PVC detergent and oil bottles, thermoformed sheet blister pack and cartons, and plasticized film meat wrap, compared to alternatives in glass, HDPE, PET, PETG, SBS paperboard, and PE-coated kraft 'butcher paper, respectively. The model showed that PVC has modest advantages among the plastics products in total energy equivalents contained and released in manufacturing. Only glass bottles, even with the current substantial amount of recycling showed, a much greater energy requirements than PVC, while SBS paperboard showed a much lower energy requirement than PVC carton material. Related to these are similar distinctions in C02 and Criteria Pollutant emissions. Chem Systems cautions against making too much of these differences, because of the substantial uncertainties of total lifecycle models, in spite of the relatively accurate knowledge of energy requirements and process stoichiometry (material balances and yields). Especially critical as "wild cards' are the energy and emissions for transportation, recycling, and disposal, which can be significant, but are poorly known. Figure 6 illustrates the wide diversity of transportation modes among various chemical commodity classifications. Compared to all the energy and by manufacturing industries in the U.S., including that imported for consumed electric power, freight transportation requires about another 22 percent. However, fuel and emissions can vary by several orders of magnitude among transportation modes on the basis of weights of various products transported. As for toxics releases and transfers, some differences are apparent among products, but there are many qualifications. The most important is that the differences among facilities tend to be greater than among products. Figure 7 illustrates this point for key toxic CTL007232 -4- CHM SVST6MS emissions from a number of U.S. ethylene plants, which are diverse in their capacities and feedstock mixes. The ranges of emissions of each pollutant cover several orders of magnitude, and are greater than the difference among the PVC, HDPE, and glass products compared. Ethylene plants are typical of the problem that not all the facilities of a type can be included in a statistical analysis because many are within complexes that report their emissions lumped together. A corollary is that the glib models that others have constructed of process emissions from various types of processes are useless at best, and misleading at worst. Further, the TRI reporting, the best possible source of emissions data, does not extend to mining, transportation or to commercial, military, public works, nuclear, or power utility facilities; it only covers manufacturing operations. Figure 8 illustrates the conceptual degradation of confidence towards the raw material supply and end use parts of the life cycle. Fortunately, the key material conversion processes are covered in the TRI. Chem Systems cautions companies and agencies that it will rarely be feasible to micromanage" the economy for the benefit of the environment by selecting one product, material, or system over another using LCA environmental comparisons. The present state of knowledge simply does not justify such actions. We urge that the TRI reporting be expanded to other sectors of the economy, which can be greater emitters of some of the species than are manufacturing operations. We also recommend that much more federal effort be spent on characterizing the energy budget of freight transportation, a significant energy and emission item with a high sensitivity to assumptions in LCA modeling. We recommend that other practitioners and the EPA consider the methodology we have created and the cautions we have stated on uses of LCAs in their efforts to evolve a new universal standard. CTL007233 Flaws of LCAs Sources and uses of data Poor quality, obscure models System definition - scope limitations Selection of effluent inventory species Presentation of results CTL007234 CHM SVST6MS Goals of Chem Systems/VI LCA Scope - Complete systems analysis; full breadth of environmental concerns Credibility - Involve peer reviewers, avoid facile assumptions Flexibility - Lotus computer model Accessibility - Discuss assumptions, disaggregate data Objectivity - Avoid weighting factors or "bottom lines" CTL007235 CHM SYSTEMS FIGURE 1 CSI LCA MODEL ARCHITECTURE OUTPUT MATRIXES FOR COMPARATORS CHM SVST6MS FIGURE 2 MODEL COMPONENT RELATIONSHIPS CHM SYSTEMS H\LBQ1\011(*PaCC NORMALIZATION QUANTITIES, NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL TOTALS NORMALIZED RESULTS CTL007237 FIGURE 3 EPA ESTIMATES OF 1988 EMISSIONS OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS BY SECTOR Total transportation Stationary fuel combustion Electric utilities Industrial Commercial/institutional/residential Industrial processes Solid waste incineration Forest fires Other miscellaneous Total of all sources SO, 1.0 Million Short Tons/Year NO. PM CO 8.9 1.5 45.3 15.0 7.8 2.3 3.4 0.8 0.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 22.8 21.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.1 7.4 2.9 5.2 0.3 1.9 0.9 5.9 0.1 0.7 7.6 67.3 VOC 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 9.4 0.7 0.8 1.9 20.5 CTL007238 Emission data from the TRI Public data base - designed for accessibility Manufacturing industries are compelled to report (fines up to $25K/day) Industry reports annually Basis constantly reviewed, updated, challenged, debated Serves as the benchmark for U.S. industrial performance Provides a consistent, credible, and relevant basis, but has some deficiencies CTL007239 CHM SVST6MS CHM SYSTEMS FIGURE A SCOPE OF TR1 RELEASES CONSIDERED IN STUDY ECONOMIC SECTORS A - MILITARY FACILITIES AND OPERATIONS -PUBLIC WORKS (WASTE DUMPS, SEWAGE TREATMENT, ETC.) -TRANSPORTATION -SERVICE INDUSTRIES, COMMERCIAL FACILITIES - AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY -NUCLEAR INDUSTRY -ELECTRIC UTILITIES h MINING BOUNDARY OF TRI COVERAGE (1) CONVERTORS, FABRICATORS PAPER GLASS -METALS - INORGANICS - PETROCHEMICALS *1 BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE TRI BOUNDA RY - NATURAL GAS PROCESSING -REFINING lO"6 10`7 I (2) 10" - MAGNITUDE (EMISSION FROM TOTl PRODUCTION, COMPA TO TOTAL INDUSTRIA1 RELEASE) 0) OTHER EMISSIONS-FROM UTILITIES AND TRANSPORTATION-ALSO CONSIDERED IN STUDY (Mother emissions-criteria pollutants, GREENHOUSE GASES, ETC-ALSO CONSIDERED IN STUDY CTL007240 FIGURE 5 ENVIRONMENTAL DISTRIBUTION OFTRI RELEASES AND TRANSFERS TRI Environmental Distribution Release to air (fugitive and point source) Release to surface waters Release to land disposal Public sewage treatment Off-site treatment or disposal Transfer to underground (deepwell) injection Total Percent 38.90 5.79 9.00 9.14 17.70 19.47 100.00 CTL007241 FIGURE 6 TRANSPORTATION VOLUMES AND MODES OF MAJOR CHEMICAL GROUPS 100 1-4,1 WATER MILUONS OF TONS, 1969 60 40 20 0 CYCLIC internedIATES INORGANIC CHEMICALS FERTILIZERS OTHER CHEMICALS NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR THE FIRST MOVEMENT FROM PRODUCTION TO CUSTOMER, WAREHOUSE, OR REDISTRIBUTION LOCATION; FOR SOME PROOUCTS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY SHIPMENT BY DISTRIBUTORS SOURCE: CAEN, REEBIE ASSOCIATES, GREENWICH, CT. CTL007242 POUNDS PER MILLION POUNDS OF PRODUCTION CHM SYSTEMS FIGURE 7 ANALYSIS OF SELECTED TRI EMISSIONS AMONG ETHYLENE PLANTS (ON A SAMPLE OF 10 OF 35) ( 1 RANGE EXTENSIONS ASSUMING OTHER 25 ETHYLENE PLANTS HAVE EMISSIONS AMONG THEM I _| 2 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LOWER AND ONE ORDER HIGHER THAN INDICATED RANGE FOR SAMPLE OF 10 + ARROWS INDICATE CASES OF ZERO (OR BELOW MINIMUM) EMISSIONS REPORTED LEGEND: AVERAGE OF 10-ETHYLENE PLANT DATA SET PVC 32-OZ HIC BOTTLE TOTAL (EX TRANSPORTATION) O HDPE 32-OZ HIC BOTTLE TOTAL (EX TRANSPORTATION) A GLASS 32-OZ HIC BOTTLE TOTAL (EX TRANSPORTATION) CTL007243 FIGURE 8 CONCEPTUAL CONFIDENCE LIMITS OF LCAs NORMALIZED DATA 10FfWIC* Conclusions PVC generally has some energy advantages over most alternatives Conclusions on environmental issues are difficult, uncertainties overwhelm differences Don't "micro-manage" economy to achieve environmental improvement Use LCAs to help improve each product or system individually LCAs are better than anecdotal approaches Need much more work on LCA methodology and data base CTL007 24 5 CHM SVST6MS Peer review feedback General approval of methodology - TRI use, computer program Past LCAs accurate and useful on energy analysis, but not on environment Differences between U.S. and European analyses - feedstocks, processes, transportation, data available CTL007246 CH6M SVST6MS