Document dY2zBy6Y619yvpNb4ygYbRZB0

mmmmmm IIP11 mm. L IA 15802 aMa*aMPAHii:i1 Iiiwfit.^iiitrt nn irrintr* Pt ml n .V * LEAD INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION, INC. NXW VOMC l, N. V. 3. L. Sabina Anti-Knock 4 Filming I. I. du Pont do Emouro 4 Cqg>snT,__Ih6a igAP umnoa ccre*mat zn ms to kklp* Z mb honored to bo Invited to talk to 70a this nortdng on tbo subject of load antiknocks and Z bop# that Z shall bo able to glvo you an ldoa bow wo 000 tbo future for tbla industry. Z should llks to rrriw for you tbo dmortlo picture and aloe in a nor* gonoral Mannar, tbo forel^i situstlon. Flrot lot m rorlow tbo historical background. Table 1 abowo tbo total load antiknock dmand an 0.3. producers in toma of Metallic load, which Z bbUrto la your profarrod rraenrl atnro. HSA1 Irr*in Bf *""** 1953 313 6 306 5 329 6 369 7 336 195* 9 1960 1 2 300 312 316 316 336 Ton will note that after reaching a low point In 1955, caused principally by tbo Installation of high octane producing refinery squipoent, and a alew-dow la octane nunber growth, the trend ha* bean Modestly upward until 1962. Zn tbo year 1962 the total pounds of lead antiknocks Increased 6.3? fra* 1961. This woo duo largely to an Increase of 21 In the gasoline deoand on U.S. refiners and to an In crease of about 62 In laid antiknock dosage in Motor gasoline. This represents tbo first annual gain In dosage doc* 1956. Although octane nuaber* failed to tfww Much upward trend In 1962, tbs heelthy gain In gasoline Volvo* plus tbs relatively lower proportion of high octane gasoline eccpooects blended Into gasoline, are be lieved to bo responsible for tbo gain in dosage. Table 2 shows our thinking on tbo rtmm rats on domestic psefuoors to* leed anti knocks for tbs next tan year*. Presented at tbo 35th amual Mooting of tbo Load Industries Association, Inc., Drake Hotel, Chicago, HI., April 29-May 1, 1963 i p im p 3578 LIA15803 . -------4, JL gabina-------- MSS Mil* ifaieiWBii AW.* -iiitei Lead Antiknock flamufttwln the freo World X&31 ftwrecaat of Rt+HH 1*94 ?" tU171fff of TvmOa 1963 196k 1963 1966 1967 339 367 367 366 367 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 352 359 367 376 386 9w Iwasdist* filter* la not wit encouraging since It la not until 1964 that th* tread is definitely up again. X should Ilka to dwell for a fov ulraTtoa on the factor* behind thla forecast since these figure* are important to us lc preparing for the future and to you also, because of the effect eo lead purebaaoa by antiknock industry. Gasoline daaand la perhaps the nost lapoitast itew Is thla forecaat and over the ten year parlod we are ertinatlng that growth will be at tb* average rate of 2.3? per year, hiotor gasoline, the Boat algr-iflcant sepvsnt., Is la at 2.3?, but the continued decrease 1a daaand for aviation gasoline reduces th* overall to 2-3&> In developing these figures w* have Bade the following aswaytlan*. 1. Wo aajor war. 2. A continuing upward growth in th* ganaral eonrvwy. 3. Wo wide spread application of such developnsnts as gas turbinea, foal calls or any other torhnnlnglcal accnryl 1 ahwant a Miich would altar significantly the currant fuel pattern. A. Snail ear* will continue to exert a restraining inflasne* on gasoline ooosirptloc because of their greater econcoy. SewaMiar* in range of 30-35* of each year's ear sales are expected to be in the for* of aaall or ccnpact cars. This figure Is reduced fren the thinking of two years ago which was closer to ACW. 5. Diesel vehicle* will continue to grew in nuuber at a faster rate that gasoline vehicles, but overall, the total effect la *0*11 6. Jet aircraft will Increase In ntaber Mil ch will cause the avlstics p**1'** trend to contlms downward. Another laportant variable influencing antiknock voluao is dosage. After reaching a peak of 2.28 cc/gallon In 1956, dosage started a doteward trend Mdah terminated in 1961 with an average of 1.68 cc/gallon. We are aaeixlng th* gals to 1.96 cc in 1962 la significant and, because w* believe that octane otabere will rise about 0.3 to 0.1 rusher* per year through th* next five or tlx year*, aw are forecasting that average laad dosage will increase to at least 2.10 ec/gallon during th* forecast period. Two other factor* vfclch will restrict th* continued growth of tb* laad anti knock business during th* next five years are th* Increasing use of load alibis other than tetraethyl lead, and a reduction in exports. Aa you know, in th* Spring of I960 tetraaethyl lead was introduced eowurclally, and later the nixed load aliyla, both in th* reacted fora and phyaioal nlxtures, were also offered as altar natas to TO., The reasons for theaa antiknock nodifications have bees fully dis cussed at nestings and in th* literature, ao Z shall not cover this phase of th* mm y 'i wuMPpwwipip^^ .i L IA1580A fP i * * ttmtuwiiin-mim J. %. Beblm 3- load Antiknock Censoqptlaa la tha Free World KJ*ct. Of interest la the present diecuseloo la their affaot on the total volas# of load uaad, Booauaa of th higher uee efficiency par unit of mtallle load the total load used la reduced aa the toline of B2. aad Mixed alkyls la lacraaaad. Sea net affect haa bean and will continue to be a reduction la total load aaad oner the iint which alght have been ueed aa TEL, until the uee ratio of tho verloua eoo pounds beoooes etabilltad. Ulurtretire of thla affect la a reduction of 1.3? la tho total Mtallie lead ueed la 1962 due to the uee of approximately 10(C la fozaa other than TEL. Built Into our forecast la the recognition that tho uae of alxad alkyls will continue to grow orar tho next few years, but the extent of thla growth is quite apeculetlTa sdace the balance of tho warloua alkyls la quite sensitive to tho relative pricing of theee product#. j The aocond reatrlctlag factor oa tho deaand oo domestic producer# la the re duction la exports due to the construction of lead antiknock plants abroad and the aggressive pricing tactic# of foreign oc^etltore. X shall f court. oa theee foretpi ' plants later. Before leaving the dmastic ecene, X should went!on air pollutloci frea antouoblle aodiaust which la one of the naw problvs facing the Industry. Xacreealng attention at both the Federal and State levels la being given to exhaust aa a source of air pollution. Particulate lead ccepounds are under scrutiny for two reasons. The possible affect on catalysts in Mifflers presently under developMOt to reduce unburred hydrocarbons; and the allegation that air borne leed nay bo datrdjeental to public health. Although it is believed unlikely that Halting air standards will be enacted by states such as California, tha possibility ranalaa that auch actions could hava an adverse affect on tha lead aarket. Mora information is needed In this field, and it la for this reason that cooperative research work oo tha nature of particulate natter in the eteosphere and In exhaust gas la cur rently underway. This verk is being eupported by ycrnr Association In tha work alt the Kettering Laboratory in Cincinnati and in California. We, in the antiknock industry, are very appreciative of this support you are giving us, not only for tha funds you are contributing, but also for increasing the breadth and stature of the endeavour. > \ ^ Wills tha dcoestlc petrolew and lead antiknock outlook la for oodest growth over the next ten years, tha foreign xarket show* sore vigor. Tho rate of growth varies free area to area but in all countries for <diich we have statistics, tha rate of growth haa been above oura. Table 3 details our gasoline forecast for tha out five and ten year* for various areas of tha free world. r j * ri I - ;. R. hWm -4- Lead Antiknock Oonsaaptlan la the Free World TABU 3 0--olino OonsaptloB Average Kate of Change_______ 1957-1962 1962-1962 WFESB&r] ftt^i 4.3* + 4. + 3.M Mexico + 5.5 + 5.8 + 5.9 Cactral America 4 Caribbean + 4.9 5.2 5.0 South Amerl na 4.7 6.5 4.5 Western Europe + 10.1 8.0 6.5 United ringrVaa 5.9 + 4.6 3.7 Kiddle East 8.4 7.2 + 7.0 Africa 2.2 5.0 + 5.0 : South Asia, Far East Oceania, Australia 8.7 + 7.6 6.9 t Total - 7.3 + 6.6 5-9 U. 8. 2.6 2.3 2-4 Grand Total + 4.0 3.8 + 3.8 eolaee Increases will bo t reduced rate mr the next ton yeer# but It la still an optimistic plcturo. Antiknock dosage *hleh mapA 1.55 **/ plfm is 1962 la tbs free world, exclusive of U.3., Mexico and Canada, la erpertod to Increese to about 1.7 oe or about 105 by 1972. Using gasoline growth and dosage change wo can caleulato tbo demand Cor load antiknocks, wtdch after all la the Item of greatest lntarost to yw and oursalvas. While wo have already oororod the dosand on U.S. producers, wo are including tha danand of tha U.S. par so in tha free world figures so that they may be ooapered directly. This Infemetine la show In Table A. *1 legwapBi^wr mm n !  *r-r~ r P.- -';"-^W mmmmmmmmmmmmm I- '.' ian** k LI A 15 806 m J. . Sabine l&BULk Lead Antiknock Ccwftiaa la the Free World lead Alkyl Daaand Motor and Aviation KUliotvs of Founds of Fb mL 1962 mL im forth ABeriea U. 3. Cantda m^ioo 317 297 330 370 IS 21 25 30 _ 02 JL2 Total 339 326 367 US Caot.Aaera Carib. 2 3 3 k South Jaarica 10 18 26 37 Meetera Europe 23 38 59 82 0. I. 10 13 17 21 Middle last 3k 6 9 Africa 6 7 8 10 Anmal Average Bate of Change 1957-'62 1962-'67 194?-' - 1.3 3.3 tit,2 - 0.8 8a 12.5 + 10.6 5.4 5.9 3a aa sa -Lk 2a 0 7.6 + 9.2 5.5 + 8a 2.7 2.3 3a SJ 2.5 5.9 7.3 6.8 6.3 8a 4.6 South Asia, Far Keet 0 Oraenie Australia Japan Other Total 4 3 _i 14 6 8U 9 16 26 Jfi -12 23 34 A9 ea 12.5 9.9 10.4 5.9 12.2 4.6 sa 6.6 10.2 t 3.7 7.6 Total A07 02 5 627 1.2 3.8 3.8 Total (fecd.0.S.) 90 135 190 257 ea 7a 6.2 Total (Exd.f.A.) 68 106 153 212 9.3 7.6 6.7 Table A five* Bstallle lead flguree tkdeh we eonputed on tba basia of TB- doubtedly TX, and Bora particularly tha dzad alkyls, will incraaaa oven Bora rapidly abroad than in tha U.S. bacauaa of tha highly arcoatie natura of their , lines. A racant export price reduction In TXL and aixad alkyls will add lspetus to this shift, but it is still too early to evaluate tba full significance of this chaise. Tba increase in foreign daaand as wall as tha trend abroad to build up national industries has lad to increased tienufacturlng facilities and plana for new plants. In Europe, plant additions have bean built in ftvgland, Frenoe and Italy. A new plant in Italy brings the isobar of nanufacturere in that oountry to four for a total capacity of 35 ad11ion pounds of setallic lead. This added to the other Euro* pean production capacity totals about 125 Billion pounds. A new plant is currently "UPPWWKWMiiiwmMii i u a wp:w inisw iiio m m iBi strife . ,mj, t iBpi^PiijWl|ppgwaHWBipi mm- BPWSI rngmmmm LIA 158C7 iL IHM 1, X, IhWw Lead Antiknock Ccoauaptim la the fm World under oonatruction la Mnri oo pdeh ahcnld be Mulcted t /mt Rau are under* ue7 to build a plant In Japan and there la of a plant la Breail. Since a large portion of tide eoluae la currently eupplled fren the U.S., tM. eolaaa will be loot to ua and la reflected la the lerelling off la the 0.3. ------- ourre. Xn euenary, X ahould like to point out that the projection# *deh X have Juat outlined for you indicate that lddle the lead antiknock buelaeaa doea not appear to hare a apectacular future growth. It la la a good aounl poeltlan both la tMa country and abroad and we can look forward to oontlnued ooneanrutlee ujpuultB. "IUPHT ..miiimjiijHWIMapuuupat 'aumi iSPP wjpui