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REVIEW OF THE NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS FOR LEAD
ASSESSMENT OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION
DRAFT OAQPS STAFF PAPER BRIEFING FOR CASAC
MARCH 11, 1986
N 31045
TEH 0413108
PURPOSE 0 Re v ie w r e v is io n s t o f ir s t d r a f t s t a f f p a p e r 0 Re v ie w s t a f f f in d in g s a n d r e c o mme n d a t io n s 0 Dis c u s s imp l ic a t io n s o f r e c e n t a d u l t d a t a o n b l o o d
pr essur e
0 Re v ie w e x p o s u r e /r is k a s s e s s me n t me t h o d o l o g y
TEH 0413109
DUP050454164
AIR STANDARD MULTI-DIMENSIONAL
Co n c e n t r a t io n Le v e l
Av e r a g in g Time
Fo r m Al l In t e r a c t t o De t e r min e Le v e l o f Pr o t e c t io n
Cu r r e n t St a n d a r d Se t in 1978
- Pr ima r y
1.5 u g /m5, q u a r t e r l y me a n
- Se c o n d a r y
1*5 u g /m5, q u a r t e r l y me a n
TEH 0413110
DUP050454165
MAJOR REVISIONS TO FIRST DRAFT STAFF PAPER
New s e c t io n o n e x p o s u r e t o l e a d -b a s e d p a in t - Be t w e e n 6-2 a n d 13-6 mil l io n c h il d r e n u n d e r 7 l iv e d
in l e a d -b a s e d p a in t e d h o u s in g in 1980 - 235-842 t h o u s a n d in h o me s w it h d e t e r io r a t in g c o n d it io n s - Emp h a s iz e s t h a t h ig h e x p o s u r e t o l e a d in p a in t w il l n o t
BE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY CHANGES IN AIR LEAD EMISSIONS - NO ATTEMPT TO ESTIMATE EXPOSURES OF CHILDREN WITH IDENTIFIED EXPOSURES TO PAINT LEAD Re c e n t l y a v a il a b l e h e a l t h s t u d ie s - Ne u r o l o g ic a l e f f e c t s (e -g -, a l t e r e d a u d it o r y f u n c t io n , SMALL IQ DEFICITS) ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD POSSIBLY BELOW 25-30 u g /d l - Da t a o n c a r d io v a s c u l a r a n d g r o w t h e f f e c t s n o t y e t INCORPORATED AS A KEY CONSIDERATION In c o r p o r a t e d CASAC'S r e c o mme n d e d r a n g e f o r ma x imu m ACCEPTABLE PbB LEVEL FOR INDIVIDUAL CHILD OF 15~20 UG/DL Re s u l t s o f e n c o d in g e x p e r t j u d g me n t o n l e a d -in d u c e d HEMOGLOBIN AND IQ DEFICITS Ex p a n d e d d is c u s s io n a n d r a t io n a l e f o r mo n t h l y a v e r a g e , STATISTICAL FORM, AND SAMPLING FREQUENCY CONSIDERATIONS Qu a n t it a t iv e p r e d ic t io n s o f l o n g -t e r m l e a d d e p o s it io n IN RURAL AREAS
TEH 0413111
DUP050454166
STEPS IN ESTABLISHING PRIMARY STANDARD LEVEL 0 Se l e c t "ma x imu m a c c e p t a b l e " Pb B f o r s e n s it iv e p o p u l a t io n 0 Ch o o s e "mo d e l " o r mo d e l s f o r e s t ima t in g p o p u l a t io n me a n
BLOOD LEAD UNDER ALTERNATIVE AIR LEAD LEVELS 0 Se l e c t p e r c e n t a g e o f c h il d r e n t o p r o t e c t f r o m e x c e e d in g
"ma x imu m a c c e p t a b l e " Pb B 0 Ca l c u l a t e p o p u l a t io n me a n b l o o d l e a d r e q u ir e d t o p r e v e n t
A GIVEN PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN FROM EXCEEDING "MAXIMUM a c c e p t a b l e " Pb B 0 Ev a l u a t e ma r g in o f s a f e t y c o n s id e r a t io n s - RANGE OF BIOLOGICAL SENSITIVITIES (E*G., DEFICIENCIES IN
NUTRITION,; CAREGIVING) - WIDE VARIABILITY IN EXPOSURES FROM NON-AIR SOURCES, ESPECIALLY
PAINT LEAD
TEH 0413112
DUP050454167
RISK ASSESSMENT: EXPERT JUDGMENTS ON IQ AND HEMOGLOBIN DOSE-RESPONSE
0 In g e n e r a l , j u d g me n t s t e n d t o s u p p o r t r a n g e o f 15-20 u g /d l AS APPROPRIATE FOR DECISION ON MAXIMUM ACCEPTABLE PbB
0 Me t h o d o l o g y , p r o t o c o l d e v e l o p me n t s , e x p e r t s c o n s u l t e d , WILL DISCUSS TOMORROW
0 He a l t h e n d p o in t s a s s e s s e d n o t n e c e s s a r il y in d iv id u a l EFFECTS MOST CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING MAXIMUM ACCEPTABLE Pb B
0 Ju d g me n t s o f s o me e x p e r t s s u g g e s t s ma l l p r o b a b il it y OF EFFECTS ON IQ AND HEMOGLOBIN < 15 UG/DL
TEH 0413113
DUP050454168
APPROACHES TO ESTIMATE Pb B LEVELS UNDER ALTERNATIVE AIR LEAD LEVELS
In t e g r a t e d Le a d Up t a k e /Bio k in e t ic Mo d e l - Es t ima t e s o f d a il y u p t a k e f r o m d if f e r e n t e x p o s u r e me d ia
(e .g *, a ir , d u s t , d ie t ) - NYU b io k in e t ic c o mp a r t me n t a l mo d e l Ag g r e g a t e Mo d e l - Re l a t io n s h ip s b e t w e e n b l o o d l e a d a n d "t o t a l a t mo s p h e r ic "
l ead
- Ad d n o n -a ir "b a c k g r o u n d " Pb B c o n t r ib u t io n CD Dis a g g r e g a t e Mo d e l - Re l a t io n s h ip s b e t w e e n b l o o d l e a d a n d in d iv id u a l e x p o s u r e
MEDIA (E.G., INHALATION, DUST, SOIL, FOOD INGESTION) - Co mb in e in p u t s , a d d t o b a c k g r o u n d Pb B
TEH 0413114
DUP050454169
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED BLOOD LEAD LEVELS UNDER DIFFERENT AIR LEAD LEVELS USING THREE MODELLING APPROACHESA
TEH 0413115
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DUP050454170
Blood Lead (ug/dl)
/
TEH 0413116
DUP050454171
IMPLICATIONS OF NEW DATA ON CARDIOVASCULAR EFFECTS 0 LOW LEVEL EFFECTS ON ADULT MALE BLOOD PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH Pb B POSSIBLY BELOW CHILDREN'S MAXIMUM ACCEPTABLE PbB RANGE
0 Ne e d t o e x a min e imp a c t s o f d if f e r e n t a ir l e a d l e v e l s ON TOTAL LEAD EXPOSURE IN ADULT MALES
Two MODELING APPROACHES USED TO ESTIMATE ADULT MALE Pb B l e v e l s - Mo d if ie d in t e g r a t e d u p t a k e /b io k in e t ic mo d e l - Es t ima t e s f o r n o n -s mo k e r s a n d s mo k e r s - Bl o o d /a ir l e a d "s l o p e " mo d e l
TEH 0413117
DUP050454172
SUMMARY OF EXPOSURE CALCULATIONS FOR ADULT MALE NON-SMOKERS AND ESTIMATED RANGES OF BLOOD LEAD LEVELS THAT 99.5% OF ADULT MALE NON-SMOKERS WOULD BE BELOW GIVEN DIFFERENT CONSTANT AIR LEAD LEVELS AND ESTIMATED POPULATION MEAN PbB LEVELS1
TEH 0413118
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DUP050454173
PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF ADULT MALE EXPOSURE PREDICTIONS 0 Co n s e r v a t iv e e s t ima t e is t h a t c o n s t a n t a ir l e a d o f
1.5 u g /m^ c o u l d r e s u l t in p o p u l a t io n me a n Pb B l e v e l s ABOVE 7 UG/DL AMONG NON-SMOKERS, WITH 99*5 PERCENTILE AT 15 - 20 u g /d l 0 At CONSTANT AIR LEAD OF 0-25 UG/M3, POPULATION MEAN AMONG NON-SMOKERS NO HIGHER THAN 2 UG/DL WITH 99-5 PERCENTILE NO HIGHER THAN 5 UG/DL 0 Ap p e a r s t h a t if a d u l t ma l e s a r e in c l u d e d in s e n s it iv e POPULATION, AIR LEAD LEVEL THAT WOULD PROTECT CHILDREN f r o m Pb B > 15-20 u g /d l w o u l d b e s u f f ic ie n t t o p r o v id e SUBSTANTIAL PROTECTION FOR ADULTS
TEH 0413119
DUP050454174
Av e r a g in g Time
Ba c k g r o u n d
- Or ig in a l l y p r o p o s e d 30-d a y a v e r a g e in 1977
- Ag e n c y d e c id e d t h a t q u a r t e r l y w o u l d imp r o v e v a l id it y o f DATA WITHOUT REDUCING HEALTH PROTECTION
Mo n t h l y a v e r a g in g p e r io d mo r e p r o t e c t iv e t h a n c u r r e n t QUARTERLY AVERAGE
- Sig n if ic a n t s h o r t -t e r m e x c u r s io n s e s p e c ia l l y n e a r p o in t SOURCES
- Ac u t e e x p o s u r e s t o h ig h c o n c e n t r a t io n s (i .e ., p a in t ., w o r k p l a c e ) r e s u l t in in c r e a s e d s t e a d y s t a t e Pb B l e v e l s AND MOBILE LEAD IN BODY, ALTERED HEME SYNTHESIS
- Ch il d r e n 's Pb B l e v e l s r e s p o n s iv e t o mo n t h l y c h a n g e s
in a ir l e a d e mis s io n s
Mo n t h l y s t a n d a r d w o u l d r e q u ir e mo r e f r e q u e n t s a mp l in g THAN CURRENT SCHEDULE - AT LEAST EVERY OTHER DAY DEPENDING ON FORM OF STANDARD
If n o t p r a c t ic a l , q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e c o u l d p r o v id e r o u g h l y EQUIVALENT HEALTH PROTECTION BY ADJUSTING LEVEL TO MINIMIZE PROBABILITY OF SHORT-TERM PEAKS
EQUIVALENT AIR LEAD CONCENTRATIONS USING DIFFERENT AVERAGING TIMES NEAR POINT SOURCES (1980-1984)
Qu a r t e r l y Av e r a g e (u g /m*)
Ma x imu m Me a n
Mo n t h l y Av e r a g e (u g /m5)
90% o f Dis t r ib u t io n <
1.5 2*1
2.7
1.1 1.5
0.82
Wit h l o w e r a mb ie n t l e v e l s in f u t u r e , t h e s e RELATIONSHIPS MAY PROVE TO be CONSERVATIVE
TEH 0413120
DUP050454175
Fo r m 0 St a t is t ic a l f o r m u s e s mu l t ip l e y e a r s o f d a t a , d e t e r min is t ic
USES ONE YEAR OF DATA - Mo r e s t a b l e t a r g e t f o r c o n t r o l p r o g r a ms - Le s s s e n s it iv e t o r a n d o m me t e o r o l o g y - Ac h ie v e s b e t t e r p r e c is io n a n d a l l o w s l e s s f r e q u e n t
s a mp l in g
St a n d a r d b a s e d o n e x p e c t e d h ig h e s t 3 mo n t h s (o r q u a r t e r s )
o v e r t h r e e y e a r s a p p e a r s mo s t a p p r o p r ia t e
- So me c o n t r o l o v e r 2n d o r 3r d h ig h mo n t h s (q u a r t e r s ) IF THEY OCCUR IN SAME YEAR
TEH 0413121
DUP050454176
Air Le a d Sa mp l in g 0 Cu r r e n t s a mp l in g s c h e d u l e d o e s n o t p r o v id e d e s ir e d
PRECISION - MUST INCREASE SAMPLING FREQUENCY TO AT LEAST ONCE EVERY 3 DAYS FOR 10X PRECISION 0 If a v e r a g in g TIME r e v is e d TO mo n t h l y , f u r t h e r in c r e a s e
in s a mp l in g f r e q u e n c y t o a t l e a s t e v e r y o t h e r d a y
0 Sit e t y p e a n d f o r m o f s t a n d a r d in f l u e n c e f r e q u e n c y REQUIREMENTS, EG, MONTHLY STANDARD MAY REQUIRE EVERY DAY SAMPLING NEAR POINT SOURCES
0 Wit h l o w e r a mb ie n t l e a d , f u t u r e s a mp l in g r e q u ir e me n t s COULD BE LESS INTENSIVE
0 "Lo w -v o l u me " s a mp l e r o p e r a t e s c o n t in u o u s l y f o r 1 mo n t h - Ap p r o v e d f o r Co n n e c t ic u t - Sit e -s p e c if ic t e s t in g n e e d e d , e s p e c ia l l y f o r p o in t
so ur c e ar eas
TEH 0413122
DUP050454177
STAFF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Pr ima r y St a n d a r d Re v is e "ma x imu m a c c e p t a b l e " Pb B l e v e l t o b e t w e e n
15 - 20 u g /d l 0 Re v is e s t a n d a r d l e v e l t o r e f l e c t n ew "ma x imu m a c c e p t a b l e "
Pb B l e v e l 0 Ad o p t mo n t h l y a v e r a g in g p e r io d o r q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e
eq u iv al en t
Ad o p t s t a t is t ic a l r a t h e r t h a n c u r r e n t d e t e r min is t ic f o r m
TEH 0413123
DUP050454178
SECONDARY STANDARD 0 Limit e d q u a n t it a t iv e d a t a s u g g e s t s ig n if ic a n t e f f e c t s
OF LEAD ON VEGETATION., FISH, MICROBIAL/DECOMPOSER COMMUNITIES 0 Co n c e r n a b o u t l o n g -t e r m a c c u mu l a t io n o f l e a d in s o il 0 St a n d a r d in f o r m o f d e p o s it io n r a t e ma y b e mo r e APPROPRIATE BUT DIFFICULT TO SET TARGET AND MEASURE 0 Le v e l s l ik e l y c o n s id e r e d f o r p r ima r y s t a n d a r d c o u p l e d WITH GASOLINE LEAD PHASEDOWN SHOULD MINIMIZE RISKS OF ECOSYSTEM EFFECTS IN SHORT"TERM 0 If JUDGED NECESSARY TO RETAIN SECONDARY STANDARD, SET EQUAL TO PRIMARY STANDARD
TEH 0413124
DUP050454179
LEAD NAAGS EXPOSURE/RISK ASSESSMENT
BRIEFING FOR CASAC
MARCH 11, 1986
N 31045.01
TBH 0413125
DUP050454180
PURPOSE 0 Re v ie w l e a d NAAQS e x p o s u r e mo d el me t h o d o l o g y 0 Pr e s e n t p r e l imin a r y r e s u l t s
TEH 0413126
DUP050454181
LEAD NAAQS EXPOSURE/RISK ASSESSMENT
TEH 0413127
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DUP050454182
OVERVIEW
0 Ex p o s u r e a n a l y s is f o c u s e s o n p o in t s o u r c e a r e a s
0 Th r e e a ir l e a d s c e n a r io s mo d e l e d
- Ba s e l in e (1974-80)
- Pr e c o n t r o l (1983-89)
- Po s t c o n t r o l (1990-96)
,
NAAQS 0-25, 0-5, 0-75, 1.0 an d 1.5 u s /m^
- Dis c u s s io n w il l f o c u s o n b a s e l in e a n d p o s t c o n t r o l
s c en ar io s
0 In d u s t r ia l s o u r c e c o mp l e x s h o r t -t e r m (ISC-ST) mo d e l u s e d
f o r a ir q u a l it y d is p e r s io n mo d e l in g
0 Fiv e l e a d p o in t s o u r c es mo d e l e d - Dis c u s s io n w il l f o c u s o n r e s u l t s f o r o n e s o u r c e
0 Ex p o s u r e e s t ima t e s o n a c e n s u s t r a c t b a s is
0 Po p u l a t io n mo d e l e d
- Se v e n a g e -s p e c if ic c o h o r t s o f c h il d r e n (b ir t h -6 y e a r s )
- Dis c u s s io n w il l f o c u s o n 84 mo n t h c o h o r t
- Ex c l u d e d c h il d r e n e x p o s e d t o l e a d -b a s e d p a in t o r t o o c c u p a t io n a l s o u r c e s o f l e a d (in d ir e c t l y )
TEH 0413128
DU P050454183
AIR LEAD SCENARIOS MODELED WITH 84 MONTH COHORTS
Ba s e l in e
1980 6
5
4
3 ..
2 ..
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COHORT BORN 1974
Sc e n a r io s
Pr e c o n t r o l 1989
Po s t c o n t r o l 1996
1 84 MONTH COHORT BORN
1983
1 84 MONTH COHORT BORN
1990
TEH 0413129
DUP050454184
ESTIMATING LEAD UPTAKE 3 Mo d e l s t o e s t ima t e b l o o d l e a d l e v e l s u n d e r a l t e r n a t iv e AIR LEAD LEVELS PRESENTED IN STAFF PAPER - Re v ie w e d b y CASAC l a s t May - Ex p o s u r e mo d e l u s e s in t e g r a t e d l e a d u p t a k e /b io k in e t ic
mo d e l t o r e l a t e a mb ie n t l e a d c o n c e n t r a t io n t o b l o o d l e a d
Le a d u p t a k e mo d e l - Mo d if ie d f r o m s t a f f p a p e r t o in c l u d e a g e -s p e c if ic p a r a me t e r s
FOR 7 COHORTS (e .g ., f r a c t io n o f d ie t a r y l e a d a b s o r b e d in GI TRACT, HOURS OUTDOOR) - Le a d u p t a k e is t h e t o t a l a mo u n t o f l e a d a b s o r b e d (u g /d a y ) FROM ALL ROUTES OF EXPOSURE Cl -E-RESPIRATORY TRACT, GI TRACT) - Ye a r -s p e c if ic e s t ima t e s o f t h e c o n t r ib u t io n t o t o t a l l e a d EXPOSURE FROM ALL EXPOSURE PATHWAYS (e -G*, FOOD, WATER) - Us e s g e n e r a l iz e d r e l a t io n s h ip s p r e s e n t e d in s t a f f p a p e r BETWEEN AIR LEAD CONCENTRATION AND SOIL/DUST LEAD CONCENTRATION - Av e r a g e d a il y l e a d u p t a k e e s t ima t e s - Lo w e r a n d u p p e r b o u n d e s t ima t e s
TEH 0413130
DUP050454185
ESTIMATING BLOOD LEAD LEVELS FROM AVERAGE DAILY LEAD UPTAKE
NYU Bio k in e t ic Co mp a r t me n t a l Mo d e l - Ag e s p e c if ic e n d o f mo n t h b l o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s - Lo w e r a n d u p p e r b o u n d e s t ima t e s Bl o o d Le a d Es t ima t e s Do No t Re p r e s e n t Ex p o s u r e s - To l e a d -b a s e d p a in t h a z a r d s - To o c c u p a t io n a l s o u r c e s o f l e a d (in d ir e c t l y ) - Of c h il d r e n w it h PICA Bl o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s a r e p o p u l a t io n me a n s
TEH 0413131
DUP050454186
ANALYSES RELATED TO BASELINE SCENARIO (1974-80)
0 Bl o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s b a s e d o n mo d e l e d l e a d a ir q u a l it y AT GEOGRAPHIC CENTROIDS OF CENSUS TRACTS
0 Ra d ia l g r id /b l o c k g r o u p a n a l y s is Se n s it iv it y a n a l y s is 0 Mo d e l v a l id a t io n
TEH 0413132
DUP050454187
EXPOSURE ESTIMATES BASED ON MODELED AIR QUALITY AT GEOGRAPHIC CENTROIDS OF CENSUS TRACTS
TEH 0413133
DUP050454188
BASELINE SCENARIO (1974-80) MODELED AIR QUALITY AT
GEOGRAPHIC CENTROIDS AND ESTIMATED BLOOD LEAD
LEVELS FOR SOURCE 2
.
Ra n g e in Mo n t h l y Air Le a d Co n c e n t r a t io n *
u g /ew
Ge o me t r ic Me a n Bl o o d Le a d Le v e l s
__ (UG/DL) FOR 84 MONTH COHORT8__
0-3 YEARS 4-6 YEARS 0-6 YEARS 36t h Mo n t h
Lo w er Bo u n d
19.4 14-3 17.2 19-2
Up p e r Bo u n d
27-0 21-2 24.5 . 27-1
*POI NT SOURCE AND MOBILE SOURCE IMPACT b BL0QD LEAD ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGES ACROSS ALL CENSUS TRACTS
TEH 0413134
DUP050454189
GRID POINT/BLOCK GROUP ANALYSIS FOR SOURCE 2 Pu r p o s e t o p r e d ic t b l o o d l e a d l e v e l s f o r mo s t h ig h l y EXPOSED CHILDREN LIVING IN CENSUS TRACTS CLOSEST TO SOURCE AIR LEAD CONCENTRATIONS AT GRID RECEPTOR SITES AT 200, 300, 500, 700 AND 1000 METERS Bl o c k s w it h in a c e n s u s t r a c t w e r e a g g r e g a t e d a n d a s s ig n e d t o NEAREST GRID POINT Lo w e r a n d u p p e r b o u n d b l o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s f o r b l o c k g r o u p s a s s o c ia t e d w it h e a c h g r id POINT
TEH 0413135
DUP050454190
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tEH 0413136
DUP05045419-)
GRID POINT/BLOCK GROUP ANALYSIS FOR 2 CENSUS TRACTS CLOSEST TO SOURCE 2
DUP050454192
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DUP050454193
COMPARISON OF RESULTS OF GRID POINT/BLOCK GROUP ANALYSIS TO GEOGRAPHIC CENTROID ANALYSIS
0 Bl o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s a r e s ig n if ic a n t l y in c r e a s e d f o r HIGHLY EXPOSED CHILDREN LIVING WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED METERS OF SOURCE
0 Po p u l a t io n o f c h il d r e n in h ig h imp a c t a r e a s is s ma l l 0 Bl o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s b a s e d o n a ir q u a l it y a t g e o g r a p h ic
CENTROIDS DO NOT REPRESENT EXPOSURES OF CHILDREN LIVING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOURCE 0 Av e r a g in g a c r o s s a l l c e n s u s t r a c t s t o e s t ima t e a s o u r c e -w id e AVERAGE BLOOD LEVEL FURTHER UNDERESTIMATES THE EXPOSURES OF MOST HIGHLY IMPACTED POPULATIONS
X
TEH 0413139
DUP050454194
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Se n s it iv it y o f b l o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s t o s e v e r a l p a r a me t e r s WAS EVALUATED Pa r a me t e r s t h a t s ig n if ic a n t l y in c r e a s e d e x p o s u r e e s t ima t e s - Av e r a g e d a il y d ir t in g e s t io n r a t e - In d o o r d u s t l e a d c o n c e n t r a t io n a n d o u t d o o r s o il /d u s t
LEAD CONCENTRATION - Ca n n e d f o o d l e a d c o n t r ib u t io n t o d ie t a r y in t a k e
TEH 0413140
DUF050454195
EXPOSURE MOFEL VALIDATION OF "BASELINE SCENARIO" USING DALLAS AREA LEAD ASSESSMENT SURVEY
Da l l a s Le a d St u d y c o n d u c t e d s u mme r 1982 Se v e r a l e n v ir o n me n t a l me a s u r e me n t s Po p u l a t io n Sa mp l e d - Pr e s c h o o l a g e c h il d r e n (< 5 y e a r s ) - La r g e s a mp l e s iz e - Su r v e y a r e a in c l u d e d t w o l e a d p o in t s o u r c e s a n d o n e
REFERENCE AREA Co mp a r is o n o f Da l l a s Le a d St u d y b l o o d l e a d me a s u r e me n t s t o EXPOSURE MODEL PREDICTIONS - CENSUS TRACT SPECIFIC GM BLOOD LEAD ESTIMATES FOR 1982 - Bl o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s f o r c h il d r e n a g e 0-5 y e a r s - Ex c l u d e c h il d r e n e x p o s e d t o l e a d -b a s e d p a in t o r t o
o c c u p a t io n a l s o u r c e s o f l e a d (in d ir e c t l y )
TEH 0413141
DUP050454196
SURVEY AREA FOR DALLAS LEAD STUDY USED FOR MODEL VALIDATION
DUP050454197
Pi.ox
COMPARISON OF EXPOSURE MODEL BLOOP LEAP PREPICTIONS TO PALLAS LEAD STUPY MEASUREMENTS
Bl o o d Le a d Le v e l u g d l/
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TEH 0413143
DUP050454198
RESULTS OF MODEL VALIDATION Up p e r b o u n d mo d e l p r e d ic t io n s , in g e n e r a l , mo r e c l o s e l y APPROXIMATE ACTUAL EXPOSURES OF CHILDREN LIVING WITHIN ONE MILE OF PALLAS LEAD POINT SOURCES Cl o s e r a g r e e me n t b e t w e e n mo d e l p r e d ic t io n s a n d a c t u a l BLOOD LEAD MEASUREMENTS IN REFERENCE AREA Co n s id e r a t io n s f o r v a l id a t io n - Ex p o s u r e mo d e l p r e d ic t io n s b a s e d o n a ir q u a l it y a t
g eo g r aph ic c en t r o id s
- Da l l a s Le a d St u d y s a mp l e d c h il d r e n in h ig h imp a c t AREAS
- Ma j o r it y o f c h il d r e n in Da l l a s Le a d St u d y w e r e b l a c k - Sa mp l e s c o l l e c t e d in Da l l a s d u r in g s u mme r mo n t h s
TEH 0413144
DUP050454199
POSTCONTROL SCENARIO (1990-96) ANALYSES Bl o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s b a s e d o n mo d e l e d l e a d a ir q u a l it y a t GEOGRAPHIC CENTROIDS Ra d ia l g r id /b l o c k g r o u p a n a l y s is
TEH 0413145
DUP050454200
EXPOSURE ESTIMATES BASED ON MODELED AIR QUALITY AT GEOGRAPHIC CENTROIDS OF CENSUS TRACTS
AIR LEAD CONCENTRATION (u g /m3) AT GEOGRAPHIC CENTROIDS (x) TEH 0413146
DUP050454201
POSTCONTROL SCFNARIO (1990-96) MODELED AIR DUALITY
AT GEOGRAPHIC CENTRO 11$ AND ESTIMATED BLOOP LEAD LEVELS FOR SOURCE 2
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u g /m^
0.01 - 0.13
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*P0INT SOURCE AND MOBILE SOURCE IMPACT BBLOOD LEAD ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGES ACROSS ALL CENSUS TRACTS
TEH 0413147
DUP050454202
GRID POINT/BLOCK GROUP ANALYSIS FOR POST-CONTROL SCENARIO (1990-96) FOR SOURCE 2
TEH 0413148
DUP050454203
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DUP050454204
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DUP050454206
RESULTS OF GRID POINT/BLOCK GROUP ANALYSIS FOR POSTCONTROL SCENARIO (1990-96)
Es t ima t e d b l o o d l e a d l e v e l s a r e s ig n if ic a n t l y in c r e a s e d FOR CHILDREN LIVING WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED METERS OF SOURCE COMPARED TO ESTIMATES FOR GEOGRAPHIC CENTROIDS Po p u l a t io n o f c h il d r e n in h ig h imp a c t a r e a s is s ma l l Bl o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s a n d t h e n u mb e r o f c h il d r e n w it h HIGHER BLOOD LEAD LEVELS INCREASE WITH INCREASING NAAQS LEVELS
TEH 0413152
DUP050454207
RESULTS OF EXPOSURE MODEL ANALYSES 0 Se n s it iv it y a n a l y s is r e s u l t s s u g g e s t t h a t b l o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s
ARE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO CERTAIN PARAMETER VALUES 0 Da l l a s v a l id a t io n s h o w s mo d e l e d b l o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s r o u g h l y
APPROXIMATE MEASURED BLOOD LEAD LEVELS "Ex p o s u r e e s t ima t e s b a s e d o n a ir q u a l it y a t g e o g r a p h ic
CENTROIDS UNDERESTIMATE EXPOSURES OF HIGHLY IMPACTED CHILDREN 0 Sma l l p o p u l a t io n o f h ig h l y imp a c t e d c h il d r e n in p o in t SOURCE AREAS 0 Ra d ia l g r id /b l o c k g r o u p a n a l y s is me a n b l o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s BETTER REPRESENT EXPOSURES OF CHILDREN IN HIGHEST IMPACT AREAS COMPARED TO ESTIMATES FOR GEOGRAPHIC CENTROID ANALYSIS Da l l a s v a l id a t io n s t u d y s u p p o r t s
TEH 0413153
DUP050454208
OUTPUT OF EXPOSURE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT So u r c e -s p e c if ic g e o me t r ic me a n b l o o d l e a d e s t ima t e s f o r 84 mo n t h c o h o r t Ap p l y GSD (1.42) t o p o p u l a t io n me a n b l o o d l e a d t o o b t a in DISTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL BLOOD LEADS Bl o o d l e a d d is t r ib u t io n f r o m e x p o s u r e mo d e l u s e d f o r PRELIMINARY SOURCE-SPECIFIC RISK ESTIMATES FOR 3 HEALTH ENDPOINTS
TEH 0413154
DUP050454209