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ESTIMATION OF DAILY LEAD UPTAKE IN CHILDREN AND RESULTING END-OF-MONTH BLOOD LEAD LEVELS by Ted Johnson and Roy Paul PEI Associatesj Inc. 505 South Duke Street, Suite 503 Durham, North Carolina 27701-3196 Contract No. 68-02-4309 Work Assignment No. 22 PN 3659-22 Richard B. Atherton, Project Officer Jeff Cohen, Work Assignment Manager STRATEGIES AND AIR STANDARDS DIVISION U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711 February 1986 TEH 0414040 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by PEI Associates, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio, under Contract No. 68-02-4309, Work Assignment No. 22. It has been reviewed by the Strategies and Air Standards Division of the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Mention of trade names or commercial products is not intended to constitute endorse ment or recommendation for use. ii t TEH 0414041 DUP050454297 CONTENTS Figures................. '............................................ ....................................................................... iv Tables. ........................................... ......................................................................................... iv Acknowledgment........................................................................................................................... v 1. Introduction........................................................................................................... 1 2. Estimation of Lead Uptake ............................................................................. 3 Daily leaduptake from lungs ............................................................. 8 Daily leaduptake related to diet.......................................................... 10 Daily lead uptake related to dirt................. _*............................... 11 The Multiyear Lead Uptake Program................. "............................... 12 3. User Prompting and Output Format of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program. ................ .......................... 13 4. Estimation of Blood Lead Levels....................... .................................... 17 5. User Prompting and Output Format of the Biokinetics. Program................................................................................................................... 21 6. Sensitivity Analyses.............................................................................................. 25 * References............................................................................................................................... . 30 Appendices A. Estimates for selected parameter values ............................................... 32 B. Multiyear Lead Uptake Program and sample outputs....................................37 C. Biokinetics Program and sample outputs.................................. 54 iii TEH 0414042 DUP050454298 FIGURES lb Page 1 User Prompting Statements of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program.......................................................................................................... 14 2 Lead Pathways Considered in Harley-Kneip Integrated Metabolic Model.............................................................................................................. 18 3 Harley-Kneip Integrated Metabolic Model for Determining Lead Levels in Four BodyCompartments. ...................................................... 19 4 User-PromptingStatements of theBiokinetics Program.................... 22 TABLES ibi 1 Parameters in Lead Uptake Model .......................... .............................. 4 * 2 Estimates for Selected Parameters of Lead Uptake Model. . . . 5 3 Year-Specific Estimates for VEHIC, INADIET, and INMISC Parameters of Lead Uptake Model ................................................... . 6 4 Lower and Upper Bound Estimates for Lead Concentration in Street Dust and Soil and in Indoor Dust ....................................... 7 5 Parameter Values for the Biokinetics Program................................. 20 6 Initial and Alternate Parameter Values Used in Sensitivity Analyses.......................................................................................................... 25 7 Results of Sensitivity Analyses ............................................................ 28 iv TEH 0414043 DUP050454299 ACKNOWLEDGMENT This report was prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by PEI Associates, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio. Mr. Jeff Cohen was the EPA Work Assignment Manager and contributed material to Section 6 and Appendix A of this report. Mr. David Dunbar served as the PEI Project Director. Mr. Ted Johnson was the PEI Project Manager and the principal author of this report. Mr. Roy Paul wrote the computer programs which implement the lead uptake and biokinetic models. Ms. Alicia Ferdo assisted in compiling input data for the programs and in executing the programs. The authors would-like to thank Mr. Jeff Cohen and Ms. Donna Sledge for their guidance and direction on this work assignment. v TEH 0414044 DUPO 50454300 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION Under the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for establishing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS's) and for reviewing them periodically to determine their adequacies on the basis" of recent experience and research. In view of these responsi bilities, the Strategies and Air Standards Division (SASD) of the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) is currently assessing health risks associated with alternative NAAQS's for lead. A staff paper* prepared by SASD describes a model for estimating lead uptake in children based on estimates of lead concentrations in air, food, and dirt; on estimates of the quantities of air, food, and dirt consumed by children; and estimates of the absorption of lead by the lungs and gut. PEI Associates,* Inc. (PEI),* has written a computer program. Multiyear Lead Uptake, which implements the SASO lead uptake model. The program provides daily lead uptake estimates for children in user-specified census tracts which may or may not be impacted by emissions from lead point sources. Children are grouped into cohorts according to age in a user-specified base year. The lead uptake estimates are month-specific and span the period from the birth of each group through the base year. Multiyear Lead Uptake creates an output file which can be directly accessed by a second PEI program, Biokinetics, which determines end-of-the-month blood lead levels for each cohort from birth through the base year. This program 2 is based on a four-compartment metabolic model developed by Harley and Kneip which calculates lead concentrations in blood and selected organs based on daily lead uptake. Section 2 of this report provides the formulas used by the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program to estimate lead uptake. The rationale behind these formulas Is discussed in the staff paper and in Appendix A. User prompting statements and output format for this program are described in Section 3. Section 4 provides a brief description of the Biokinetics Program; Section 5 describes 1 TEH 041*045 DUP050454301 user prompting statements and program output. The results of a sensitivity analysis to determine the effects of varying input parameter values on program' output are discussed in Section 6. 2 TEH 0414046 DUP050454302 SECTION 2 ESTIMATION OF LEAD UPTAKE The lead uptake model Is Intended to be applied to a group of census tracts specified by the user. These census tracts comprise the "study area." Within the study area, the model provides estimates of the daily average lead uptake of specific population cohorts. A cohort is defined as all children with a set of user-defined characteristics that reside in a particular census tract in a specified year and fall into one of seven age groups: 0 to 0.99 year, 1 to 1.99 years, 2 to 2.99 years, 3 to 3.99 years, 4 to 4.99 years, 5 to 5.99 years, and 6 to 5.99 years. Consequently, a study area with 100 census tracts would contain 700 cohorts. The daily average lead uptake (TDLU) of each member of a particular cohort is assumed to be identical. The value of TDLU is calculated by the expression TDLU = UPLUNG + UPDIET + UPDIRT, (1) where UPLUNG is the daily average lead uptake from the lungs, UPDIET is the daily average lead uptake related to diet, and UPDIRT is the daily average lead uptake related to dirt ingestion. Sections 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3 discuss how UPLUNG, UPOIET, and UPDIRT are estimated. Table 1 lists the parameters which appear in the lead uptake model and the units in which each should be expressed. Recommended values for many of these variables are presented in Tables 2, 3, and 4 and in the text. A lower bound estimate of TDLU is determined by using only lower bound parameter values in the lead uptake model. An upper bound estimate of TDLU is determined by using only upper bound parameter values. If bounds have not been determined for a variable, a "best estimate" value is used in both cases. Estimates of TDLU are determined on a monthly basis to reflect the ambient air lead data used by the model. These data consist of 12 monthly 3 TEH 0414047 DUP050454303 BBaraasssossasssBasBss Parameter ABSDIET ABSDIRT ABSLUNG BACK CRVAL DIRTCONS DUSTIN DUSTST HOUT INADIET INAIR INDIET INDIRT INMISC IORATIO MULT OUTAQ SOURCEAQ TDLU UPDIET UPDIRT UPIUNG VEHIC VRESP WAQ WDIRT TABLE 1. PARAMETERS IN LEAD UPTAKE MODEL Units Definition a a a ug/m3 ug/m3 g/day ug/g ug/g hours/day ug/day ug/day ug/day ug/day ug/day a a ug/m ug/m3 ug/day ug/day ug/day ug/day ug/nr m3/day ug/m3 ug/g Fraction of ingested diet-related lead which is absorbed by gut Fraction of ingested dirt-related lead which is absorbed by gut Fraction of inhaled lead which is absorbed through the lungs into the bloodstream Background air lead concentration Critical outdoor air lead concentration Quantity of dirt consumed Lead concentration in indoor-dust Lead concentration in street dust and soil Time spent outdoors Lead intake related to atmospheric lead which contaminates diet Lead intake from air Lead intake related to diet Lead intake from dirt Dietary lead intake related to solder and mis cellaneous sources (see text) Ratio of indoor air lead concentration to out door air lead concentration Multiplicative factor for adjusting SOURCEAQ Outdoor air lead concentration Air lead concentration related to point sources Total daily lead uptake Lead uptake related to diet Lead uptake from dirt Lead uptake from lungs Air lead concentration related to motor vehicles Volume of air respired Time-weighted air lead concentration Time-weighted concentration of lead in dirt aDi.mensicml ess. 4 TEH 0414048 DUP050454304 TABLE 2. ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED PARAMETERS OF LEAD UPTAKE MODEL Acie, years Parameter3 Location Bound 0-0.99 1-1.99 2-2.99 3-3.99 4-4.99 5-5.99 6-6.99 ABSDIET NA Lower 0.425 0.425 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.18 Upper 0.53c Q.53c 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.24 ABSDIRT NA b 0.3C 0.3 0.3 0.3 0,3 0.3 0.3 ABSLUNG General PSd Lower Upper Lower Upper * 15c * 15c 0.15 0.15 0.30c 0.30c 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.355 0.30 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.50 0.15 0.30 0.30 0.55 0.15 0.30 0.30 0.55 0.15 0.30 0.30 0.50 DIRTCONS NA b 0.1c 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 HOUT NA Lower 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Upper 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 IORATIO General Lower - 3c 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ' 0.3 Upper o.ac 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 PS b 0.3C 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 VRESP NA Lower 2.0 3.0 4.0 4-c 5.0 5.0 6.0 Upper 3.0 5.0 5.0C 5.0C 7.0 7.0 8.0 aDefined in Table I and text. ^Best estimate. Lower and upper bounds not specified. cDerived directly from lead criteria document.3 Other values discussed in Appendix A. QPS = near point source. 5 j TEH 0414049 DUP050454305 TABLE 3. YEAR-SPECIFIC ESTIMATES FOR VEHIC, INADIET, AND INMISC PARAMETERS OF LEAD UPTAKE MODEL Year 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 VEHIC,3 ud/m3 1.28 1.24 1.20 1.15 1.04 0.86 0.53 0.48 0.42 0.37 0.27 0.18 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 INADIET,3 uC/dav 30.9 29.8 28.9 27.8 25.1 20.8 12.9 11.5 10.3 9.0 6.5 4.5 0.55 0,36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 .0.19 0.19 0.19 INMISC,3 uq/da.y 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 17.8 16.2 14.8 12.5 12.011.3 10.6 10.1 9.3 8.2 ' 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 aQefined in Table I and text. 6 TEH 0414050 DUP050454306 TABLE 4. LOWER AND UPPER BOUND ESTIMATES FOR LEAD CONCENTRATION IN STREET OUST AND SOIL AND IN INDOOR DUST OUTAQ3 Bound*5 Lead concentration, ua/q Street dust and soil (DIRTSTl Near point General source Indoor dust (DIRTIN) Near point General source 0L 5 20 U 30 300 5 20 30 100 0.2 L U 40 80 150 . 550 70 70 200 400 0.3 L 60 125 U 250 600 100 '250 250 600 0.4 L 100 200 U 350 700 200 300 300 650 0.5 L U 0.6 L U 150 350 450 800 200 450 600 1000- 250 400 300 500 450 700 550 750 0.7 L U 250 550 650 1150 350 600 600 800 0.8 L U 300 650 950 1300 450 650 700 . 900 1.0 L 500 750 u 1150 1450 525 800 875 1150 1.25 L U 600 1250 850 1600 625 1000 1050 1400 1.5 L 700 1000 U 1400 1750 750 1150 1200 1700 1.75 L U 775 1450 aX ln ' 1-1 .. ' TM"" ^ Outdoor lead concentration, yg/m . ^L = lower, U 3 upper. 1075 1950 800 1200 1350 1900 7 TEH 0414051 DUP050454307 average (January through December) air lead concentration values for each census tract. Section 2.4 describes a computer program developed by PEI that calculates TDLU values based on an input file consisting of monthly average air lead values spanning a user-specified 7-year exposure period. 2.1 DAILY LEAD UPTAKE FROM LUNGS The daily average lead uptake from the lungs, UPLUNG, is estimated by the formula UPLUNG = (INAIR)(ABSLUNG) (2) where INAIR is the average daily intake of air lead by respiration and ABSLUNG is the fraction of respired air lead which is absorbed into the blood stream. Table 2 lists lower and upper bound estimates of ABSLUNG recommended for use with the lead uptake computer program. These estimates appear in the lead staff paper1 and are based on analyses by Chan and Lippman,4 Davidson and rC Osburn, and Phalen et al. ABSLUNG Is assumed to increase near point sources where large particles are more prevalent. Consequently, the bounds for point source locations provided in Table 2 are larger than those for general urban, locations. A location is assumed to be near a point source whenever the value of SOURCEAQ exceeds a specified critical value (CRVAL). SQURCEAQ is discussed below. INAIR is estimated by the formula INAIR * (WAQ)(VRESP) (3) where WAQ is the time-weighted air lead concentration and VRESP is the air volume respired per day. Table 2 lists lower and upper bounds for VRESP for the seven age groups as determined by Ferdo, 7 ICRP, S and the Nutrition Foun- g dation. WAQ is estimated by the formula WAQ (1/24)[(H0UT)(0UTAQ) + (24 - H0UT)(I0RATIG)(0UTAQ)] (4) 8 TEH 0414052 DUP050454308 where OUTAQ is the average ambient (i.e.outdoor) air lead concentration determined for the census tract for the specified month, and HOUT is the aver- ' age number of hours spent outdoors per day. IORATIO is the ratio of indoor air lead concentration to outdoor air lead concentration. Table 2 lists val ues of HOUT by age group as determined by the lead staff* and by Pope.*^ The lower and upper bound values for IORATIO are 0.30 and 0.80, respectively, for general urban/rural locations. These are the bounds suggested for indoor microenvironments by the lead criteria document. For locations near point sources where large particles are more prevalent and infiltration into homes is lower, a single "best" estimate of 0.3 is considered appropriate for IORATIO. A location is assumed to be near a point source whenever the value of S0URCEAQ exceeds CRVAL. OUTAQ is estimated as OUTAQ = (MULT)(S0URCEAQ) + BKGD. (5) SOURCEAQ is the point-source-related component of the ambient lead concentra tion and'is taken from a user-supplied input file specific to the point source(s) being considered, the control scenario hypothesized, and the year. Within this file, SOURCEAQ values are indexed by census tract and month. MULT is a user-specified multiplicative factor by which SOURCEAQ values can be adjusted to simulate regulatory impacts on point-source emissions. MULT values are year-specific. BKGD is estimated by the expression BKGD * VEHIC + ADO. (6) VEHIC represents the year-specific contribution of motor vehicles to ambient lead concentrations. Table 3 lists recommended values for VEHIC. ADD is an additive factor which can be used to account for background air lead concen trations not associated with point sources or motor vehicles. ADD values are not year-specific. In initial applications of the lead uptake model, the value of SOURCEAQ was estimated for the geographic centroid of each census tract by the Industrial Source Complex (ISC) dispersion model using emissions data for 9 TEH 0414053 DUP050454309 lead point sources and local meteorological data- Values of SOURCEAQ were also calculated by the ISC model for receptor points on a radial grid sur rounding each point source- Use of these radial grids permitted estimates of SOURCEAQ to be made at receptor points that were closer to the sources than any of the census tract centroids. Values for MULT were determined by dividing the maximum SOURCEAQ value permitted under a given scenario by the largest "as is" or baseline SOURCEAQ value determined by the ISC. The latter value was always associated with a radial grid receptor point rather than with a geographic centroid. If, for example, the maximum SOURCEAQ value permitted after certain emission controls 3 are implemented is 0.25 ug/m and the largest baseline SOURCEAQ value deter mined by ISC is 0.40 ug/m3, then MULT = 0.25/0.40 - 0.625*- This MULT value is then multiplied by the SOURCEAQ value for each census tra'ct centroid as indicated by Equation 5. Where appropriate, the impacts on lead exposure of two or more point sources can be considered simultaneously. In these cases, source-specific MULT values can be used to adjust the baseline SOURCEAQ values associated, with each source. The resulting source-specific SOURCEAQ values c,an then be added together to yield a SOURCEAQ value for each census tract representing the combined contribution of all point sources. 2.2 DAILY LEAD UPTAKE RELATED TO DIET The formula used to estimate UP0IET, the average daily lead uptake related to diet, is UPDIET * (INDIET)(ABSDIET) (7) where INDIET is the average daily intake of lead from the diet and ABSDIET is the fraction of lead consumed which is absorbed through the gut into the bloodstream. Table 2 lists lower and upper bounds for ABSDIET by age group as estimated in the staff paper. INDIET is estimated as INDIET = INADIET + INMISC. (8) INADIET is the average daily dietary lead intake related to the deposition of atmospheric lead on food surfaces before'and during processing. INMISC is the 10 TEH 0414054 DUP050454310 average daily dietary lead intake related to solder in canned foods, to water distribution systems, to soil lead, and to undetermined sources. Table 3 lists year-specific "best estimates" for INADIET and INMISC which reflect the downward trend expected in lead levels found in food and water (Appendix A). 2.3 DAILY LEAD UPTAKE RELATED TO DIRT The average daily lead uptake related to dirt is estimated as UPDIRT - (INDIRT}(ABSDIRT) (9) where INDIRT is the average daily Intake of lead through ingestion of dirt and ABSDIRT is the fraction of ingested lead which is absorbed through the gut into the blood stream. The staff paper estimates ABSDIRT to be 0.30. INDIRT is estimated by the formula INDIRT = (W0IRT}'(0IRTC0NS) {10} m where DIRTCONS is the average quantity of dirt consumed during the period each day when a child is active. This period is assumed to have a duration of 12 hours. WDIRT is the time-weighted lead concentration of the dirt. The staff paper recommends a value of 0.1 g/day for DIRTCONS.1 WDIRT is estimated by the formula WDIRT = (1/12)[{HOUT}(DIRTST} + (12 - HOUT)(DIRTIN)]. (11) DIRTST is the lead concentration of street dust and soil. DIRTIN is the lead concentration of Indoor dust. DIRTST and DIRTIN vary with the ambient air lead concentration (OUTAQ) and reflect whether or not the census tract is considered to be significantly Impacted by a point source. Point source impact is assumed to occur if the value of SOURCEAQ exceeds CRVAL. Table 4 lists values of DIRTST and DIRTIN for both nonimpacted and Impacted census tracts according to OUTAQ value. These estimates were also obtained from the lead staff paper. Interpolation is used to determine DIRTST and DIRTIN values for OUTAQ values not appearing in the table. 11 TEH 0414055 DUP050454311 2.4 THE MULTIYEAR LEAD UPTAKE PROGRAM Sections 2.1 through 2.3 discuss how a TDLU valve is estimated for a single cohort for a given month. The Multiyear Lead Uptake Program calculates month-by-month TDLU values by cohort from birth through a user-specified last year of exposure (LYOE). A separate output table presents estimates for each individual census tract! the individual cohorts within each census tract are identified according to age at the begining of the LYOE. The number of chil dren in each cohort is also indicated. These population data are obtained from an input data file provided by the user. Section 3 discusses the user prompting statements and output format of the Multiyear Uptake Program. A second program. Biokinetics, uses the month-by-month daily lead up_take .. estimates from the Multiyear program to calculate end-of-month blood lead concentrations from birth through the LYOE for each cohort. The program implements the model described in Section 4. Section 5 discusses the user prompting statements and output format of the Biokinetics-program. Section 6 discusses the results of a sensitivity analysis which, evaluated the effects .on program output of varying program input values. 12 TEH 0414056 DUP050454312 SECTION 3 USER PROMPTING AND OUTPUT FORMAT OF THE MULTIYEAR LEAD UPTAKE PROGRAM Appendix B contains a listing of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program. Fig ure I lists the series of prompting statements by which the program elicits instructions, parameter values, and labeling information from the user. The user first enters the name of the study area or principal point source as a means of labeling the area to which the lead uptake estimates apply. Next the user enters the name of the control scenario to which the estimates apply. Responses to these two prompts are used solely to label output tables. The program next requests whether lower or upper bound estimates are to be determined. The program then asks for information as to which population subgroups are to be included in the uptake estimates. Note that the user can include children from any of six demographic subgroups defined according to presence of lead-based paint in housing (yes or no), housing condition (sound or unsound), and potential for indirect or secondary occupation lead exposure (yes or no). The program also asks if the population age groups are to be further subdivided. If the answer is yes, the user can specify what fraction of each age group should be included in the lead uptake determination. This allows the user to focus on the effects of age-related factors (e.g., pica) on lead uptake. In response to the next prompting, the user enters the name of a user-cre ated file which contains values for all input parameters other than SOURCEAQ and population. This file is referred to as the "Arrays" file. Section 2 contains recommended values for this file. The user next enters the name of a user-created file which contains popu lation data for each of the six demographic groups by age group and census tract for the study area under consideration. This file also must list 12 val ues (January through December) of SOURCEAQ for each census tract. These SOURCEAQ values are the monthly average air lead concentration from sources in 13 TEH 0414057 DUP050454313 ! COHORT MULTI-YEAR LEAD UPTAKE PROGRAM Calculates daily uptake by month over lifetime For selected children ioe 0-6 years { I 01-06-1986 Strategies and Air Standards Division gt -f- SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS* Enter name of study area or principal point source (in CAPS): 7 Enter name of control scenario to be analysed (in CAPS) ? Lower <0) or. upper (1) bound estimate? Press CShift-PrtSc) to print these specifications: Then press 'ENTER' to continue: SPECIFICATIONS CONTINUED: .* Which of the fallowina population qroups should be included in this analysis? If more than one, croup populations will be added. (Note: LPH = lead-painted house: SOE secondary occupational exposure) ChiLdren in LPHSunsound, with SOE (Y/N)? Children in LPH\unsound. no SOE (Y/N>? Children in LPHSsound. with SOE (Y/N)? Children in LPH\sound. no SOE CY/N)? Children in non-LPH, with SOE (Y/N)? Children in non-LPH, no SOE (Y/N)? Should child groups be further subdivided for this analysis(Y/N)? Press (Shift-PrtSc) to print these specifications. Then press 'ENTER' to continue: Figure 1. User prompting statements of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program, (continued) 14 TEH 0414058 DUP050454314 SPECIFICATIONS CONTINUED Enter name of incut (Arrays) -file in DOS formats Enter name of input <AQ) file in DOS formats Enter name of output file in DOS formats Enter last year of exposure (4 digits): 1980 This proaram uses , a set of 1974-1997 background values for motor vehicles. Do-you want to substitute a set of rural backqround values CY/N) ? Year 1974 ? Year 1975 7 Year 1976 7 Year 1977 ? Year 1978 7 Year 1979 7 Year. 1980 ? ' Should baekaround values be used to indicate critical values above which point source impact is assumed (Y/N) ? Enter alternate AQ critical value <ua/cu.m.) above which point source impact Should be assumed: Year 1974 ? Year. 1975 ? Year 1976 ? " Year 1977 7 Year 1978 ? Year 1979 ? Year 1980 7 Enter additive baekaround factor (other than vehicles) to adjust AQ: Enter multiplicative factors to adjust AQ by year: Year 1974 7 Year 1975 7 Year 1976 Year 1977 7 Year 1978 Year 1979 7 Year 1930 :-:"eas *Shit t-PrtSc) to print these specifications, "h en areas ' EM TE"< ' t o sc n t i n ue s Figure 1. User prompting statements of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program. 15 i TEH 0414059 DUP050454315 the study area during the base year. Paul has developed a program, MATCH-AQ, which creates this file using population data from the Bureau of Census and dispersion modeling estimates of lead air quality.** The program yields separate data sets for 1980 and for each of two future years specified by the user. The user of the lead uptake program specifies which data set to use by entering the appropriate file name in response to a request for the "input POPAQ file." The user also specifies the name of an output file which will serve as input to the Biokinetics program. The user next enters the last year of the seven-year exposure period for which the program will calculate lead uptake values. The user is then given a choice of 1) having 8KGD represent urban locations by incorporating the val ues of VEHIC listed in Table 3 or 2) specifying an alternative set of BKGD val ues which better represent rural locations. If the user chooses the latter option, the program requests a value for each year of the exposure period. The program also asks whether the critical value (CRVAL) for each year should equal the BKGD value specified for that year. If*the answer is no, the .user is asked to specify a tRVAL for each year in the exposure period. The remaining prompt ings request that the user enter a single value for the additive background factor (ADD) and seven year-specific values for MULT. 16 TEH 0414060 DUP050454316 SECTION 4 ESTIMATION OF BLOOD LEAD LEVELS Harley and Kneip have developed an Integrated metabolic model which esti mates day-by-day blood lead levels based on daily uptake of lead into the bloodstream.2 The model assumes that most (over 95%) of the lead in the body is contained in four compartments (bone, liver, kidney, and blood) and that lead moves among these compartments in a predictable manner. Figure 2 shows the various lead pathways considered in the Harley-Kneip model. Figure 3 presents the mathematical relationships which the model uses in an iterative manner to estimate the total lead content in each compartment as the body receives varying daily lead inputs. Harley and Kneip have incorporated these relationships into a computer program for estimating blood lead concentrations in children 1 to 6 years of age,12 PEI has adapted the Harley-Kneip program to accept daily lead uptake values (i.e., TDLU) as estimated for a cohort by the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program. The resulting Biokinetics Program tracks 'a cohort from birth on January I of a user-specified calendar year through the last day of a user-specified calendar year. A year is assumed to contain 12 months of 30 days. The cohort receives the same daily lead uptake for each of the 30 days in a month. This value is the TDLU value estimated for that month by the Multiyear Lead Uptake Model. The Biokinetics Program calculates the resulting blood lead concentration on a daily basis but prints out only end-of-the-month values. Thus, 360 sequential blood lead concentrations are calculated for a given year, but only the 12 end-of-the-month values are actually printed out. Table 5 lists the parameter values used by Harley and Kneip in their model.1 These have been incorporated into the 8iokinetics Program. Note that many of these values change with the age of the child. Section 5 presents typical output from the Biokinetics Program.i 17 i TEH 0414061 DUP050454317 Figure 2. Lead pathways considered in.Harley-Kneip integrated metabolic model. 18 TEH 0414062 DUP050454318 ill it * * cbs * 8 " CM * * " cfcfc * * * c*b * 3 * cl* * 1 * CH 1 { * CJ * J ' 1 1 Clj * 1 dS/dt ' cb* 3 a - flb 36 * di/dt =bl X 3 - Clb x I. dS/dt ' cbk Z a - CV(, x S tfbara ? daily iapat to blood la tag/day Cb3 blood to s'aalatoa raooval nti (days"1) Cjb afcalacoa to blood removal rata * ^bl " blood to liver removal rata " Clb liver to blood removal rata " Cblt " blood to kldaay removal rata " C^b kidney Co blood removal rata " Cbll " blood to tiriaa removal rata " Ci. liver to sasesoiatestinal trace s removal rata " F " traaeiaoal uptake froa gastrointestinal tract to blood 3,S,t.,S * total load caataae la blood, skeleton, li7ar, icidaey (03) The organ burdens ara calculated la aa iterative aaaaar usicg the expressions alt*l)"3(lj - dS/dt S(t*U-S<t) * dS/dt ate. Figure 3. Harley-Kneip integrated metabolic model for determining lead levels in four body compartments.2 19 j TEH 0414063 DUP050454319 20 DUP050454320 TABLE 5. PARAMETER VALUES FOR THE BIOKINETICS PROGRAM TE SECTION 5 USER PROMPTING AND OUTPUT FORMAT OF THE BIOKINETICS PROGRAM Appendix C contains a listing of the Biokinetics Program. Figure 4 lists the series of prompting statements by which the program elicits instructions, parameter values, and labeling information from the user. The user first enters the name of the study area or principal point source as a means of labeling the area to which the program estimates apply. Next the user enters the name of the control scenario to which`the estimates apply. Responses to the two prompts are used solely to label output tables. The program next requests the calendar year which, will be the last year of the 7-year exposure period. The user should enter the same year previously specified for the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program run which created the input data file for the Biokinetics Program. The user then enters the name of this file and indicates which estimates (lower or upper bound) the file contains. The last prompting statement asks if the user wants the geometric mean of the 12 end-of-month blood lead values calculated for each cohort's sixth year of exposure. Appendix C contains printouts for "lower bound" and "upper bound" runs of the program for the study area previously discussed in Section 3. Each printout consists of a separate table for each census tract in the study area and four tables which present results averaged across all census tracts. Values tabulated in the census tract tables are end-of-the-month blood lead concentrations from birth through the last year of the exposure period. The format is similar to that of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program in that esti mates are arranged according to the cohort's age in the last year. The last two pages of each printout contain the four summary tables. These tables pertain only to those cohorts whose seventh year of life is the last year the 7-year exposure period. (If the last year of the exposure period year is 1980, for example, these would be those children born at the beginning of 1974.) Summary Table 1 presents month-by-month geometric means of the end-ofthe-month blood lead concentrations of all cohorts born on January 1 of the 21 TEH 0414065 DUP050454321 BIOKINETICS Version 2.0 Calculates end-of-month Concentrations -for chidren blood lead age 0-6 years 01-06-19.86 Strategies and Air Standards Division SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS: Enter name of study area or principal point source (in CAPS): ? Enter name of control scenario to be analysed (in-CAPS):. n Enter last year of child exposure (4 diqits): PROGRAM ONLY FOR 1980-1997 What type of uptake estimates -- upper(l) or lower (0) bounds? Do vou want the geometric mean blood concentration for each census tract durinc the next to last year of exposure(Y/N)? Inputs ccmolete. Press (Shift-PrtSc) to print specifications. Then press "ENTER' to continue: Pause to initialise arrays of data in program... Begin calculations for each cohort within census tracts; Figure 4. User-prompting statements of the Biokinetics Program. 22 TEH 0414066 DUP0S0454322 first year listed in the left-hand column. These values are calculated as follows. Let be the end-of-the-month blood lead concentration for cohort i in the year j and month k. Then the blood lead concentration listed in Summary Table 1 for month k of calendar year j, is calculated by the expression yjk = exPt{Pf)On xljk^/spi3 (12) where p. is the number of children in cohort 1 and the summations include all cohorts in the study area which meet the stipulation stated above. Note that is a population-weighted geometric mean. Summary Table 2 presents population-weighted geometric means of annual average blood lead levels for the same cohorts considered -i'n Summary Table 1. The geometric mean for year j, y.,, is calculated as J y^ * expE2(p1)(ln m^)/^ ] (13) where is the arithmetic mean of the 12 end-of-the-month blood lead con centration values for cohort i in year j, is the number of children in cohort i, and the summations include all cohorts meeting the previously stated stipulation. The seven values listed in the right-hand column of Summary Table 3 are calculated as follows. Let be the highest end-of-the-month blood.lead concentration for cohort i in year j. Then y^, the blood lead concentration listed in the right-hand column of Summary Table 3 for calendar year j is calculated by the expression y^. * exp[s(pi)(ln h.j)/zpi ] (14) where is the number of children in cohort i and the summations include all cohorts in the study area which meet the stipulation stated above. Thus y. J is a population-weighted geometric mean of the highest end-of-month blood 1ead concentration. In developing Summary Table 4, the program first calculates a.1-, the arithmetic.mean of the x^. values for the first four years of a cohort's life, and b., the arithmetic mean of the x^. values for the-next three years of a cohort's 23 1 I TEH 0414067 DUP050454323 life. The first value listed in the right-hand Column of Summary Table 4 is calculated as wa exps(p.)(ln a.J/zp^ ; (15) the second is calculated as wb = exp(z(pf)(ln bf)/zp1-l . (16) The summations include all cohorts in the study area which meet the stated stipulation. The quantities wa and are both population,-.weighted geometric means. 24 TEH 0414068 DUP050454324 SECTION 6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSES Multiple runs of the Multiyear Lead Uptake and Biokinetics program'were made to assess the effects on blood lead estimates of varying the values assigned to selected input parameters. All runs used the same study area, a set of census tracts surrounding a secondary smelter located in a relatively densely populated area of a U.S. city. The parameters listed in Table 6 were selected for the sensitivity analyses because of their apparently large in fluence on blood lead estimates relative to that of other parameters. Listed in Table 6 is the initial value used for each parameter, an alternate value substituted for the initial value, and the scenario being analyzed'.. TABLE 6. INITIAL AND ALTERNATE PARAMETER VALUES USED IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSES Parametar{s) Initial value A1ternate value Scenario analyzed DIRTCONS 0.1 g/day 0.2 g/day Baseline exposure Lower and upper bound runs INMISC Year-specific estimates (see Table 3) See text Precontrol exposure and post-control exposure (1.0 ug/m3 standard) Lower and upper bound runs DUSTIN Lower bound estimates3 Upper bound Baseline exposure estimates3 . Lower bound run DIRTST Lower bound estimates3 Upper bound estimates3 Baseline exposure Lower bound run DUSTIN + DIRTST Lower bound estimates3 Upper bound estimates3 Baseline exposure Lower bound run DUSTIN + DIRTST Upper bound estimates3 Lower bound estimates3 Baseline exposure Upper bound run aLower and upper bound estimates used are values presented in Table 4 for "near point source." 25 TEH 0414069 DUP050454325 The selection of alternative values for the sensitivity analyses was based on the following considerations: 1. While the estimate of 0.1 g/day for the average daily consumption, of dirt in young children is generally accepted (lead staff paper* and lead criteria document3), it is based on a limited amount of data, and most likely is a conservative value. A doubled value of 0.2 g/day of dirt ingestion was arbitrarily chosen to assess how sensitive the model was to this parameter. 2. INMISC represents the dietary lead intake due to lead from solder in canned foods and water distribution systems, natural sources of lead, indirect sources (i.e., historical accumulations of deposited atmospheric lead), as well as sources of lead that have not yet been determined according to the criteria document. Estimates of INMISC are derived in the lead staff paper1 from calculations presented in the criteria document, which in turn are based on the most recent available data on mean dietary lead intake (1982-1984), and on pro jections of future trends in the lead content of canned food.and of drinking water by the criteria document and EPA's Office of Drinking Water, respectively. Because these projections involve various assumptions on the economic and technologic feasibility of future controls on lead exposure, it was-of interest to test how sensitive the model outputs were to these assumptions.. Rather than assume that the use of lead-soldered cans in the canning industry would con tinue to decline after 1983 (the most recent data of lead solder can usage), it was simply assumed that no further controls would be implemented in the canning industry. As a result, rather than a steady decline in INMISC from 12.7 in 1983 to 5.7 ug/day in 1997, there would be a decrease from 12.7 to 12.0 ug/day in 1997 (due solely to expected improvements in lead drinking water quality). 3. Estimates of the lead concentrations in indoor dust, and in street dust and soil associated with different.air lead concentrations were obtained from the lead staff paper* and were derived from various studies which measured air lead levels and dust and/or surface soil lead concentrations concurrently. Although the studies sampled a broad spectrum of homes, none of the studies in cluded data from homes with reported lead paint hazards. Given the complex variables involved in the air lead/dust soil lead rela tionship (e.g., deposition rates, chemical and physical character istics of the lead particles and soils, topographic and meteorologic conditions, frequency of street washings and precipitation, trans port of dust and soil into homes, etc.), it is not surprising that a range of soil and dust lead concentrations are estimated for any given air lead concentration. To test the impact the ranges have on the model outputs, three runs were made. The first used the upper bound value of DUSTIN and lower bound value for DIRTST; the second used the lower bound value of DUSTIN and the upper bound value for OIRST; and the third used upper bound values for both parameters. 26 TEH 0414070 DUP050454326 In general, the air quality (SQURCEAQ) throughout each census tract is assumed to equal the air quality at the geographic center of the census tract. In some cases, the geographic center may be a significant distance from the population center of a census tract. Air quality at the two points could be significantly different, with the air quality at the population center being considered the more accurate indicator of exposure for the children residing in the census tract. To determine the magnitude of the discrepancy, alternative SOURCEAQ input fi.les were developed using the ISC dispersion model and two radial grids. A series of runs were made to assess the effect of receptor point loca tion on blood lead estimates. In one run, the SOURCEAQ for each census tract was determined using the geographic centroid of the census'tract as the receptor point for the ISC model. In another run, geographic centroids were used for all but the two census tracts closest to the smelter. A radial grid receptor point 1000 m from the smelter was used for the census tract nearest the smelter; a receptor point 2000 m from the smelter was used for the other census tract. These receptor points approximated the locations of the population centroids of the two census tracts. In a third run, radial grid receptor points 500 m from .the smelter were used for both census tracts. These locations were assumed to represent residential areas experiencing air lead levels near the maximum levels expected in the two census tracts. Results of the different sensitivity analyses are given in Table 7. To illustrate the effects of the various adjustments, blood lead levels pre dicted by the model using parameter values given in Tables 2, 3, and 4 are also shown for different scenarios. As noted previously, all of the sensi tivity analyses used the same U.S. secondary lead smelter. The results pre sented in Table 7 for runs without any adjustments apply to the same smelter. Based on the results of the sensitivity analyses, the following conclu sions can be drawn. I. Doubling the estimate for the average daily dirt ingestion rate from 0.1 to 0.2 g/day significantly increased the blood lead esti mates. The marked sensitivity of the model to this parameter, which is based on a limited amount of data in relation to the other parameters, should be highlighted. Furthermore, none of the analyses completed to date were intended to model children with pica. Although no precise estimates are available, the amount of dirt ingested by children with a high degree of pica is significantly 27 TEH 0414071 DUP050454327 13 6 th m o n th 1 9 .2 2 7 .1 3 1 .9 4 5 .4 2 3 .1 2 0 .6 2 4 .5 2 1 .3 1 9 .1 2 7 .0 1 9 .2 2 7 .2 3 .6 o f th e These 3te d w ith TABLE 7. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES to V) c j VS p-- i- ns "O c j TO >> 0) to CO CM nr f-* *--1 CM TJ nr O o r-- vs ca & a; > CO i o 4-0 OS I^H rH CM l o in co in CM CO tO nT nP-4 nT >3- nr wo wo rH *--4 oo nr no CM CM to 0 eo m pH pH OO rt nr i-h "* CM co .CO CI nT rH OS KO CM CM t - CM nj- tn co nr os nr os 3m- n nr p h pH CM M" Ol CM W3 VO M CM IO LfS pH os rs -4 CM CM OS uo os CO O in 0 rH S. ,o .0 4- *" > p-- r'"p" *0 V? (/) VI VI CJ CU -P vs V) . 01 <31 a -a 3 at <e cs 4-* X C 00 a;o TO TO ra v> . vs u0 cj s e O O > CJ > 4-3 43 43 ^ 3 -0*0 VI 44 ra ns 0J VS VS L 4-2 flt? 44 ca CJ CJ 4-3 0 0 CJ CJ f > H > p-- p- CL 3 f-- p- > >i "O -0 cu 0 ns *t? T3 "O *0 VS ns 3 r- 3 t~ f- 00 T3 T3 0 Or O O' O 00 W 00 s- S- +J X V) V) CJ 40 40 CM CM m -a 2 S3 s s s TO 4-J 3 a. a O O 33 T u 5- t - Tw S. 'r-- 44 44 (0 CJ O a. VS vs VS CO 3 3 zz + * CD40 C a. OS JO a VS VI wvr 33 1-9 i-9 o o Z h- z z p-- ns v> p-- ns 00 a tj p p -- m PH *--1 <a & s- ns s~ xs -a vo tn ns ns H H X X H X *p-- cs C r- CT I-* M-4 oo 2: z VS 00 ZD => QO 00 0 =3 n h OO 00 00 03 ? a0 T5 O 4J m cj c a: s) a 0 03 CJ CS CJ OO zz EE zz co pH PH 0 1-4 00 m * pH co * VS 44 CJ s 44 VS PO X3 ns O z V7 44 e CJ s X vs n - O z cc pH os CJ **" 0 C CJ VS CO OsJ C >t- W pH nj" OpCJ vs ^ S- -l : p- VI CJ CJ -- Z Z 5- +J + O CM F"-- CO GO O h 1 44 vs 0 0. p . <0` 44" vs e O 0 ro <a CJ ro 0 0 +- -0 CJ ns <4 0 cn PH Z z PH O 1-- J-- 44 T- 44 nr V) CS LUC 0 0*^" X *p- 44 i~ m in E X CU-p* 44 Q 44 VS X CJ O CJ ^CJ U CO CJ 0 cc 5. M- >* os rtS <tPH CJ -- CJ I - >-o t. 44 1 VI N4 l a0 ns 0 0a X px X CJ to - o> l44 0 os 0 VI rH e VS I vs c P- 0 - CJ CJ > OS c* *0> . 0 O *H flfl VS <a -- O4 CJ pp O CJ Q *0 CJ O X TJ Q . OS CJ O CJ CO VS <+. > OS it X ns pH x X3 1 X P-- QJ X CO ns CO CJ CJ Cr S n: V? pH vs CJ CJ vs vs S- <31 3 ao vi 0 CJ CJ CO vs *p" VO &. 0 zi CJ nr VS *H -LJ s o% i. Va- 0 x' x< X . VS rd i] ns cj 1 *p* ;i XX jo P0 - 0 O-^ VS PH QJ X; <oh CJ CJ 0 V -O'.' : O *P"'i CM OI"- O X UJ H * X CJ IM *- >> O P" CL (O OS VS VS CJ vs CJ CJ 1-- u CJ H- P-- <0 -o X X CJ X OS ns 1- c j v. Cj CJ vs vs > f--*WP TO CJ > CJ CJ S- f-- S- CS "O CJ C TO -o -a *o -o -CJ -0 O TJ X3 -O c e o 3 3 3 *t -- o o o o O O 0 0 O O u. 43 X x x X 43 *a 3 XI X TO S- i- s~ $. s- i- &. s- & s- CJ o cu o a 0 c j as c j o j aj u 3 a 3 9- 3 s 3 a. 3 0. V) O Q. O CL 0 0 a a. O a1-- r-- 3 r-- r-- r-- 3 p-- *o l ! TO a> c j 11 <D CJ 1I CJ <V 11 r-- i--* p-- r- 1-- p-- p- p-- p-- fSW-. CJ CJ (/} V) CJ CJ C/I vs ca vi vs vs CJ OJ VS V) cc co ca co ca ca caTO TO CD 03 caTO t o <0 ns (& IB T3 "0 OO XI X &* c j a 3a 0a r-- Z5 1f CJ CJ *r-- -p1-- p-- CJ CJ v> tn cnas c0a3 TJ -O OO XX i-- CJ CJ 3a 0a 1-- !1 r- p-- 00 s- s. 44 44 00 UO CJ CJ aim. a&--. -0 -a OO XX S- L. CJ QJ S CL 0a 1-- 11 ^ p-- 00 S- s~ XX OO a;U <J at-. as.. -0 T? OO XX 00 Sm s_ p H tu --i CJ w3 D. O X. " 1-- *--* Op I* s 44 44 i--S 1 S0<*s oco U s CJ J1 44 044 O V) a vs a a0. 0 a. *0 d OO XX 0O s. i. f--4 0 1--H CJ 3->-- c O0 P" 1-- P-- OO 1 &. 1 44 44 -"** ocn O<o CJ e u E1 1^ 1 44 0 44 O VS 3 VS a 0 CL aO. VS H-r CJ C/S O p- p-- c j x cr X CJ <cLU4J< CU CJ w Z in 13 m O TO VS Q X X p- r- P- 03 p-- X S CJ <C 03 fl3 b > C CJ CJ QJ <t> VS r-- CD VS 4- 1-- 3 S- CJ T3 CJ D O > -0 TO CJ iB *p - *-- TO ^ CJ eu S- +j CJ 0) r-- CJ ns -- > QJ CL VS TO L. -a r- i- -a ai sO CJ CJ CJ a >x ca (Bi-- r* a> 1-- X r-- O TO X 0 CJ X P-- S- 1CD TO 00 ns X 28 DUP050454328 larger than for children who ingest dirt in the course of normal hand-to-mouth behavior, which is what "the estimate of 0.1 g/day is intended to represent. It is clear from this analysis that the exposure and blood lead estimates for children with a high degree of pica would be significantly greater compared to those of other children. 2. The use in the model of the upper bounds of the ranges of indoor dust lead concentrations and outdoor soil/dust lead concentrations rather than the lower bounds significantly affects the blood lead estimates of the model. The results further indicate that indoor dust lead exerts a significantly greater impact on exposure than does outdoor soil/dust lead. As Equation 11 indicates, the contribution of D1RTIN to WDIRT is greater than the contribution of DIRTST to WDIRT. It should be emphasized that none of the runs completed to date were intended to model children exposed to significant concentrations of lead in paint. For`those children living in homes with lead paint hazards, it is clear that significantly higher tead exposures and blood lead levels would be estimated due to the higher levels.of lead in indoor, and possibly, outdoor dust. 3. Using radial grfcf air quality values for receptors points at 1000 and 2000 meters that approximate the locations of the population centroids of the two closest census tracts, rather than using geo graphic centroid air quality values for those tracts, did not affect the results significantly. For oner of the census tracts {Census Tract A), the geographic centroid of the census tract was actually closer to the source than the population centroid. Assign ing radial grid air lead concentrations at 500 meters for the two closest census tracts did not significantly increase the blood lead estimates when averaged across all census tracts surrounding the point source (Table 7). The effects of altered air quality on blood lead estimates for individual census tracts was more evident. For example, an approximate 35 percent increase in blood lead estimates for Census Tract A resulted when the radial grid estimates were used for the upper bound run. For the other census tract, the use of radial grid air quality values rather than geographic centroid Values did not significantly increase air lead exposure due to the relatively closer proximity of the geographic centroid to the point source. The resulting blood lead estimates for this census tract are not significantly different. It is possible that for other lead point sources, modeling with radial grid air lead concentrations that approximate the population centroids, rather than geographic centroid values, might better represent actual exposures and result in significant differences in blood lead estimates. 4. The assumption that further reductions in canned food lead levels will not occur in the future noticeably alters the blood lead esti mates only for the post-control 1990-1996 scenario. Estimates for the precontrol 1983-1989 time period are not significantly affected. Based on projections in the criteria document, it appears most likely that further controls by can manufacturers will continue. 29 | TEH 0414074 DUP050454329 REFERENCES 1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Review of the National `Ambient Air Quality Standards for Lead: Assessment of Scientific and Technical Information. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, draft staff paper. April 1985. 2. Harley, N. H., and T. H. Kneip. An Integrated Metabolic Model for Lead in Humans of All Ages. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract No. B44899 with New York University School of Medicine, Department of Environmental Medicine. January 30, 1985. 3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Air Quality Criteria for Lead. Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. August 1984. 4. Chan, T. L., and M. Lippman. Experimental Measurements and Empirical Modeling of the Regional Deposition of Inhaled Particles in Humans. Am. Ind. Hyg. Assoc..J., 41:399-408, 1980. 5. Davidson, C. I., and J. F. Osborn. The Sizes of Airborne Trace Metal Containing Particles. In: Toxic Metals in the Air. J. 0. Nriagu and C. I. Davidson eds. New York, New York, 1984. 6. " Phalen, R. F., M. J. Oldham, C. B. Beaucage, and T. T. Crocker. Postnatal Enlargement of Human Tracheobronchial Airways and Implications for Particle Deposition. Anatomical Record. Vol. 212, 1985. 7. Ferdo, A. M. Ventilation Rates for Testing Lead NEM. Memorandum from PEI Associates, Inc., to Mr. Jeff Cohen, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. April 1985. 8. International Committee on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Report of the Task Group on Reference Man: Report No. 23. Pregamon Press, New York, 1975. 9. Nutrition Foundation, Inc. Assessment of the Safety of Lead and Lead Salts in Food: A Report of the Nutrition Foundation's Expert Advisory Committee, Washington, D.C. The Nutrition Center. 1982. 10, Pope, A. A. Development of Activity Patterns for Population Exposure to Ozone. Memorandum from PEI Associates, Inc., to Mr. Tom McCrudy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. June 1985. 30 TEH 0414075 DUP050454330 11. Paul, R. A. Demographic Data for Lead Exposure Analysis. Report from PEI Associates, Inc., to Mr. Richard Atherton, U.5. Environmental Pro tection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. January 1986. 12. Harley, N. H., and T. H. Kneip. A Metabolic Model to Calculate Blood Lead and Concentrations in Selected Organs by Month for Children Ages 1 to 6. A Report from New York University School of Medicine, Department of Environmental Medicine to the U.S. ^Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. August 1985. 31 TEH 0414076 DUP050454331 APPENDIX A ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED PARAMETER VALUES Values for parameters of the lead uptake model given In Tables 2 and 3 of the main text that are not derived directly from the lead staff paper1 are discussed in this appendix. 1. ABSDIET represents the average fraction of ingested dietary lead that is absorbed through the gastrointestinal tract into the bloodstream. Lead balance studies in infants (Alexander and Ziegler ) report GI uptake factors in the range of 42 to 53 percent based on measurements of lead in the diet and excreta. Several studies have found that adults absorb a much smaller fraction of ingested dietary lead with measurements ranging between 7 to 20 percent. For the present model," a range of 42'to 53 percent is used for infants up to their third year of life, 18 to 24 percent for children upon reaching their 7th year of life, and proportional, incremental values in intermediate ages. 2. Table 3 describes past and future trends in average daily dietary lead intake {INDIET) for 1974-1997. Year-specific estimates by Battye^ of the mobile source contribution to ambient lead concentration in urban areas, 3 VEHIC ug/m , are used to estimate INAOIET, the average daily lead intake related to atmospheric lead deposition on food surfaces before and during 1 processing. Past trends in lead solder usage in canned foods, anticipated future reductions in lead solder usage, and the anticipated impact of the expected revision of the lead drinking water standard were used to make yearspecific estimates of the contribution of these sources to average daily dietary lead intake. The contributions of soil lead and undetermined sources of lead remain constant in estimating average daily dietary lead intake be tween 1974-1997. The contribution of components of dietary lead intake, with the exception of the INADIET component, are combined to yield year-specific estimates of INMISC. 32 i TEH 0414077 DUP050454332 3. ABSLUNG represents the fraction of inhaled lead that is deposited into and subsequently absorbed through the lungs'fnto the bloodstream. In the staff paper, data on particle size distributions of airborne lead mass, collected from various urban, rural, and Industrial areas, are combined with particle respiratory deposition and absorption data to calculate the absorp tion rate of inhaled lead particles for a 2-year old child living In generalized urban/rural areas (15 to 30%) as well as near stationary lead sources (35 to 60%). Data were obtained from Landrigan et al.,^ Dorn et al.,^ Chan and Lippmanri,*1 Davidson and Osborn,^ and Phalen et al.^ Age-related differences in deposition efficiencies estimated by Phalen et al. are not large for the relatively small particle diameters that pre dominate in generalized urban/rural areas. Therefore, the range estimated for a 2-year old is applied to all ages of young children (0 to 7 years) living in those areas. Near point-sources, there is generally a greater fraction of coarse-mode particles (>2.5 urn) in the ambient air. Consequently, the fraction of particle mass that deposit in the lyngs of young children and are absorbed is estimated to be larger than that of adults. Particle deposi tion efficiencies for 5 urn particles were derived from Phalen et al. as a function of age and ventilatory state (e.g., low activity, light exertion) to calculate average daily deposition rates by age: % deposition tsi at low activity 0 80 1 75 2 70 3 65 4 60 5 60 6 55 18 35 % deposition at light exertion 65 60 55 50 45 45 40 35 Average daily deposition rate 75 70 65 60 55 55 50 35 Average respiratory deposition/absorption rates for different ages living near lead point sources were calculated using the equation [{CRD5 - ARD5) x PbPSx Q] + ARDPS 33 TEH 0414078 DUP050454333 where CRDg is the average daily deposition rate of 5 um particles for a child between 0 and 6 years (50 to 75%, from Phalen et'al.13); ARD^ is the average daily deposition rate of 5 ym particles for an 18-year old (35% from Phalen et al.); PbPS^g is the average percentage of lead particle mass collected near point sources that is comprised of particles that are larger than 1,0 urn in diameter (50 to 70%, from Landrigan et al.9 and Dorn et al.10); and ARDPS is the estimated respiratory deposition rate for adults living near lead point sources (20 to 40%, estimated in the lead staff paper1). The calculated ranges were rounded off to yield the rates listed in Table 2. It should be noted that deposition efficiencies for 5 ym particles were combined with data on the percentage of lead particles larger than 1 ym around point sources to calculate point source area respiratory deposition rates. The available data related to particle size in the published literature do not permit a more direct comparison and calculation. 4. HOUT represents the amount of time spent outdoors. Among young children, this value varies depending on their stage of development (i.e. infant, toddler, preschool), season, geographical location, and family behavior. The values for a 2-year old child In Table 2 were obtained from the lead staff paper.1 Estimates for other ages were developed" by Pope,1'* who analyzed the time spent by children indoors, outdoors, and in motor vehicles, with respect to season and day of week. 5. VRESP, the volume of air respired each day, is dependent on age, body size, lung capacity, altitude, and activity of the child. The lead staff paper1 estimates a range of 4 to 5 m3 day for 2- and 3-year old children based on various sources (ICRP,15 Nutrition Foundation,1 Phalen et al.13). Phalen et al. determined average ventilation rates for males and females, at different activity levels, from birth through age 18 from graphical fits.of published tabulated data (Altman and Ditmer1^'13). The calculations for low activity levels were used to construct the ranges of daily ventilation rates in Table 2 for children 0 to 6 years. 34 TEH 0414079 DUP050454334 REFERENCES 1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Lead: Assessment of Scientific and Technical Information. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, draft staff paper. April 1985. 2. Alexander, F. W., H. T. Delves, and 8. E. Clayton. The Uptake and Excretion by Children of Lead and Other Contaminants. In: Environmental Health Aspects of Lead Proceedings, International Symposium. D. Barth, A. Berlin, R. Engel, P. Recht, and J. Smeets, eds. Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Commission of the European Communities Center for Informa tion and Documentation. Luxemborg. October 1972. 3. Ziegler, E. E., 8. B. Edwards, R. L. Jensen, R. R. Mahaffey, and S. J. Fomon. Absorption and Retention of Lead by Infants. Pediatric Research, 12:29-34, 1978. 4. Kehoe, R. A. The Metabolism of Lead in Man in Health and Disease: The Normal Metabolism of Lead. J. R. Inst. Public Health Hyg., 24:81-97, 1961. 5. Rabinowitz, M., G. W. Wetherill, and J. D. Kopple. Lead Metabolism in the Normal Human: Stable Isotope Studies. Science, 1982:725-727, 1973. 6. Rabinowitz, M. B., J. D. Kopple, and G. W. Wetherill. Effect of Food Intake and Fasting on Gastrointestinal Lead Absorption in Humans. Am. J. Clin. Nutr., 33:1784-1788, 1980. 7. Battye, W. Predicted Mobile Source Lead Impact for 1990 and 1995. Technical Memorandum from GCA Corporation, Technical Division to Mr. John Haines and Mr. Jeff Cohen, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. April 1985. 8. Personal communication between Mr. Jeff Cohen, U.S. Environmental Pro tection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, and Mr. W. Coniglio, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Drinking Water, Washington, D.C. November 14, 1985. 9. landrigan, P, J., S. H. Geklbach, B. F. Rosenblum, J. M. Shoults, R. M. Candelaria, W. F. Sarthel, J. A. Liddle, A. L. Smrek, N. W. Staelhing, and J. F. Sanders. Epidemic Lead Absorption Near and Ore Smelter: The Role of Particulate Lead. N. Engl. J. Med., 292:123-129, 1975. 35 TEH 0414080 DUP050454335 10. Dorn, C. R., J. 0. Pierce, P. E. Phillips, and G. R. Chase. Airborne Pb, Cd, Cu Concentration by Particle Size Wear a Pb Smelter. Atmos! Environ., 10:443-446, 1976. 11. Chan, T. L., and M. Lippman. Experimental Measurements and Empirical Modeling of the Regional Deposition of Inhaled Particles in Humans. Am. Ind. Hyg. Assoc. 0., 41:399-408, 1980. 12. Davidson, C. I., and J. F. Osborn. The Sizes of Airborne Trace Metal Containing Particles. In: Toxic Metals in the Air. 0. 0. Nriagu and C. I. Davidson eds. New York, New York, 1984. 13. Phalen, R. F., M. 3. Oldham, C. B. Beaucage, and T. T. Crocker. Postnatal Enlargement of Human Tracheobronchial Airways and Implications for Particle Deposition. Anatomical Record. Vol. 212, 1985. 14. Pope, A. A. Development of Activity Patterns for Population Exposure to Ozone. Memorandum from PEI Associates, Inc.to Mr, tom McCurdy, U.'S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. June 1985. 15. International Committee on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Report of the Task Group on Reference Man: Report No* 23. Pregamon Press, New York, 1975. 16. Nutrition Foundation, Inc. Assessment of the Safety of Lead and Lead Salts in Food: A Report of the Nutrition Foundation's Expert Advisory Committee, Washington, D.C. The Nutrition Center. 1982. 17. Altman, P. L., and D. S. Dittmer, eds. Respiration and Circulation. Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology. Bethesda, Maryland. 1971. 18. Altman, P. L., and D. S. Dittmer, Eds. Biology Data Book, 2nd Edition, Volume 1. Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology. Bethesda, Maryland. 1972. 36 TEH 0414OBI DUP050454336 APPENDIX 8 MULTIYEAR LEAD UPTAKE PROGRAM AND SAMPLE OUTPUTS 37 TEH 0414082 DUP050454337 s - ' " LEr\D jF'FfiKE PROGRAM $a w-ft---- ? v; ;"EH Arra-. = accomodate aat* arouos 0--6, years erf acia 0-6, auna.-a, .. VO RES1 calendar vears 19 74-97 (0-23) , upper & Lower bounds' 0-i) . 50 RCi'i unaffected or -ffectea (0--1) by paint source of lead. 60 0I it PFRACT < 6 > , I OP.AT 10(6,1.1), HOUT (6,1) 'rC D IM VFiESP (6, 1 , ABSLUNS (6,1,1) 30 DIM A3GDIET (6.1) , INDTET<6>, INNISC (23)' ?C 0 l Cl DUST 1 (11,1, 1; , DUSTS (J.1,1 .1) , 1 NAD IET <23) ;00 DIM nIR'iii. CUTAQ(6,i2), INAIR(6). BKGD(23), CRALT(6) t1 1 DIN QIRTCONS(6.1). ABSDIRT(6,1) , INDIRT<6> 120 . M F.f>*(6) . PREG<6> . POP (6) . MONTHS (12) . MULT(6) '..'C,: TCBAY* DATE-*: Lf* = CHRS U0-) : CLS: LPRINT CWR* (12) :.:U -pair rftB(12i " i LA. "'PINT TAD (12) "I L .\: PRINT TAB 12) " ! COHORT MULTI-YEAR LEAD UFTAKE PROOF-Ail 1 f"0 PRINT TAB(12/ "I r : r.p TAB; i 2> " ! r-r ,0-4r TAB c 12) Calculates daily uptake bv month eover iliifeRre:time For selected children aao C-o vears i .? " .... I NT LT-VD < 12) ' i ' 103:30 TODA-t TAB(70; ' I" . .0 ..SO rr-iN: 10' ;-P r,r:' r,-.D(i:: LA (iA/ TAB (12) :: ' "I arranaoiss and Air' Standards Divi = . 2oO PRINT TAB (12) " +------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------- ------------ --- - -----27-:. PRINT LF**LF*s "SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS:' " 23C PRINT "Enter name af studv area or principal point source- (in CAPS/; r INPUT SRC* i-/0 "PINT "Enter name a-f control scenario to be analyzed (in CAPS): ": INPUT CTRL* (Mr . i 'uo.-s-r if>> or ucoar 1 > bound estimate? ", 3NC . . :, r -Press *Shi ; t -PrtSc; to print these saaci s ications. ' :/./ur 'Tf-rsii uross ENTER' to continue; ", C* : CLP; f< L f:. LPT; "SPEC If ICA'DIONS CONTINUED: " PTiNf i PRINT "Which of the foilowina copulation arauos should , r.c. 'u:, . :' i -1 ? /PINT "a-ur.lvsis? IT more than one, arouu populations will be a -coo v PPINT " .Note: uPh * lead-painted house; 30E = secondary occunoir. si PC INPUT Children in LPfi \unsound. with SUE (Y/N)? ", GRP* (1 > 'DO INn/r " 3 PP 11 Children in LFHYunsounc. no SCE (Y/N)? GRP*(2) Chi. I dr on in LPH\sound. with 30E (Y/N)'? 11. GRP*(3) = 0P M C'ai; dren in i_P! t\sound. no SCE (Y/N) 7 ", GRP* <4.; 4 ; : VT " Children in non-LPH. with 30E (Y/N)? ". GRP* (5; 4....0 i/ruT Children in non-LPH, no SOE (Y/N)? ", GRP*(6) 'dr INPUT -`Cnnu.1 d child or ars be further subdivided far this i-uiviis i */ c.- r s. i:; AMD POP* o It 'f" THEN SCTO 530 u r" 0 PRINT -.Enter fraction of children in each subarouo. fcv ace; ' a-tPU'f " H 0 I'-if'LT " Aae - 0,?P; n PFRACT(0) Aqe i - 1. . PPs ;; , a PFPACT ( i \" 0 .C r*-. iN/ur INPUT INPUT ::if u . upur " * " " Atie 2 - 2.99; <( PFRACT(2) Aqc- 3 - 3.99: ii a PFRACT(3) Aue 4 - 4.99; :i PFRACT(4) Acs 5 - 3. ' v: it PFRACT(5) ; i fl ~j tiz - 99; 7FR4CT-` TEH 0414083 53o PRINT LFT;LF*. "Press (Shi ft-PrcSc) to tsrint Chess soaci ficbfcior.a. u-'.C INPUT' "Then pt a*a 'ENTER' to continue: ", C* 550 LPPIN7 CiiRHIiu; CL2 ; PRINT I..P*s LP T: : !PE#$%$#&$'(! ")012345D6 '7 DUP050454338 i U' ii i i u. i u'..i i i., Maine >31 i.it'ji.. ini r ik VS/ i i i e in uui i ,m.. c , r j . i_r_ PRINT" *: iNPUT "Enter name of incut iAQ; rile in DCS format; , FILET r0 INPUT '`Enter na o+ outnUt file in DCS format: ". FTLE2# f e n FLINT L.r;;; LF't i : I :FL T "Enter ' a.st vear of exposure <4 cUci t3> : ". vE.iF. " N- .iTT l v3u IF v^r i?'v7 THEN PRINT ' Y ff,jP "APS Or EXPOSURE ENDING IN i *00 - i ~-r-7" , : '0 LOt . : 1 F '.FrR ' = .'AC: t h e n DVR =* !. ' s j, s, era*, ram uses a set of i974r*i9e/7 oackcrounfl re i... es vc.-. ur INPUT 1 Dc vOU want to substitute a set of rural background RURAL# o3.*> Tr RURAL# = "M" OR RIJRAL#= "n" THEN GOTO 600 -.*>> FOR V * 0 ! 0 j >' J . V YY = YEAR - i; -I- Ys Y2 ** YY - 1974 6-.S0 PRINT " Year ": YY: : INPUT RURALB: BKGD(Y2) = RURALB ^70 NEXT Y iPS i NT "Should backaround values be used to indicate critical val uas" ' i'-IF.'.T " : Tv'S: *= ->tove which ooint source imoact is assumed O N; . ;*>? OR CV#** "V" THEN GOTO 720 Or PRINT "Enter alternate AD critical value (uq/cu.m. ) above which " PRINT' point source i mo act should be assumed; " ror. v -- 0 0 0 . -1 v viVNR .s V v:.ii PRINT " Year " j YY: : INPUT CRALT <Y) '*;.n :-EXT v r ITT"TrTer ad.-ii t-s vs bjekaround factor (other than n aruciesi i: Otv i. t i. o i. tenths factors to adjust Air fc" veer? C F Y * C !u a v * ~ .'E.-.R - 6 + Y ..X" PRINT " Year "; YY: : INPUT hULT(Y) TPO NEXT Y "GO '-'PINT "Press <Shift-PrtSc) to print these specifications. " 7fC INPUT 'Then press 'EMTER'to continue: ", C# 300 OPEN FILES'# FOR INPUT AS #3 3*i 0 REW *** Names of months: %** f o r rirn * i t o 12 RFAC 1GWTH# IN : H; -.:!! v;;r , ' ^''V' , -NARCH" , "APRiU" , "NAY " . " JUNE 1 . yj. ' ' "..IP f.'-EER" , "NOVEMBER" . 'DECEMBER." EM ** :: Hairs/'clav sosnt outdoors *** : Nt"U T w-S F HAY#: PRINT L. F# , L F#. ARRAY S', Li~i ; 0 u o "DP "D r .) TO i. iNPUT S3,HOUT (Y,Bi)> s PRINT HEJT Y. ,,0j : ; . . i -P.1 .:* * N'-door/'outdoor ratios tc convert to indoor f'-Qs #^-s 4 .. I.-.Pur 43. ARRAY#: PRINT LF# .LF#. ARRAY#, Lr# - ! !-Y.' . j TO * ",v, FC 7 PS = `j TG 1 '00 FOR SD = 0 TO 1 ...... ? 0 INPUT #3, IGRATIO TY.PS',BD) 5 PRINT IORAT'0 ' V . PE .. ./: * NEXT 0 V : NP 1 T PG > = i?'Y T Y r.Tw x n* pS> j. eve Is from motor vehicles added tc fcackorounu * > i.'4Y INPUT it3, ARRAY#: PRINT LF#. LF# . ARRAY# . LF# I Or-..'.- F. :R T: / - 1.074 TO 1997 INPUT #3. VEHICs Y2 = CV-1974 ir RURAL#*-"N" OR RURAL#**: n" THEN BKSD <Y2) VEHIC + ADD IF R:jR-:.u#-* ` Y,: OR RURAL#-" v" THEN BKQD <Y2) iSNSDi r2) -> ADC i.......:: > 10 : ITT ; ni yef ; c - i vji; u ; 5 f :`i'; s .-'C a i, r r-?so 1 red INPUT ftE. ARiL'V. -t: PRINT T'OF, i - O ! 0 L t r . .r , LF# .ARRAY#, LF# i" .ts. v t' ' Tt-r-. v . ri/-. "i u ? TEH 0414084 DUP050454339 ' - next FT :1 x ;<-x w i . Ik . ui 'M-,s.-.roticn in lunb rfO 4 vi'-Cii,' , ! 4-sift Oi/, t iulH t VlXUUI \ . I N:P:j' r? . ARP*:*i PRINT LF#,LF*.ARRAY*.LF* . . ... .... . o : Li .. . * ; - Dr XI F":5 = .U f .,f :,u JKFu I" r CO F "i ti-i. A;.31LUN.U; -3 PS . D Q: ; PRINT A.i-Sub.-.u 1270 :`<EX I v' ' 300 RET! **-* Pb intake Pram uncstennined sources -* -* * iuiO INPUT #3. ARRAYS: PRINT LF*,LF*,ARRAYS.LF* 1320 PDF. CY = 0 TC 23 1330 INPUT #3, INMISC(CY): PRINT INMISC(CY): 1340 NEXT CY ,370 REM *** Pb dietary intake related to air *** r3: INPUT' #3. ARRAY*; PRINT LF* . LFs . ARRAY* . LF* 3 .. C' as y TO j S :: INPUT 3. INADIET(CV > s PRINT INADIETiCY) j N!0 NEX P CY ;v;;r: Ahsorction in out of lead from diet ** * iN .. INPu:' (tZ, ARRAY* ; PRINT LF*. LF*. ARRAY* . LF* ; FOR V = 0 TO o ; 4 ?0 PUR 3D - 0 TO i : *: ; .NP. iT UL-T 5:1 , AES0ITlY.3D> s PRINT A8UD IE T t V , 3, ; _ w i'. .. >. n ..5-c 3 .. t.-; a i.. .u cons moo . N. :;-:ru ' *3. ARRAY*; PRINT l .F* ,LF*.ARRAY$.LF* ' .y'y PUR V = 0 i'G 6 i5J!0 FOR P-r. 0 TO 1 i :?0 INPUT* #3 , DIRTCONS <Y,BD>s PRINT DIRTCONS ( Y,BG> : ITSO ' NEXT BD .rite NEXT V fc .i) :.20 PEN *** Absoroti on in out o-f Pb -from dirt INPUT- t T3. ARRA'r*; PRINT LF*.LF*.ARRAY*.LF* P.if ~ p TCi 6 UP 55 -- DC i *## * ; N! .'> \ #3. -U. .. :,Ex 'ID i.-'l: NEXT f NTT (v . i<f/> s PA ;.! r-tbUC PT s ' , l U i FEN ** `rwel v e discrete air Fb levels Per i ntero-u ati c. s i. INPUT S3., ARRAV^; PRINT LF- * . LF4-. ARRAN . LF f k C = i 1C i l "TC INPUT 44=3. AISKPS) s PRINT AIR;P0: ... ' i'>*T FF.- >.Ei'! il" ;v Coricentr ati on of Pb in street dust ** :.T- I|-;r JT ft3, ARRAY*; FRINT LF* . Lr * ,, ARRAY*. LF* l -P -CR PE- 0 TC il .- i;0 :. :> : -.0 1 33: r \-jr-. k3 -- U iw i FCR BD 0 TC 1 INPUT i?3. DUST 1 <PB,F3,BD1 3 NEXT BC PRINT DUST 1 I PB . "S. 90/ ; ;-.D. T PC ; UI r i,L 37 P 1; Pit/ ci: -' 1- FU'. pr"M * a--a Par.centration of- Pb in indoor dust * * r.-r._: #3, APiPAvt; p r in t l f $ , l f * . 2 r r 2 y *. u p * Fo r p g --- 0 t o :-i rgr. rs -= 0 t u 1 ret d d TD i . . 1 -rU; ' i r/ j 3FT l CD .s E2 T P 5 , I;- - : I .; -.:. . r..:: t 1 T i' i... 4 i'J '1 : ".. : f u , n e t s R3 33; 3 i'\V;r; " U ! '( ! - v:. .* TEH 0414085 DUP050454340 . .. 2030 r-.-iO Z ..'f v ... cuo I FIR; " . .Mi' ., *..j 1 I l U^tJ. %>.M. ; t. . Ulia f Ul OFEN FILE^ FOR INPUT S '#1 CC'wn wC> S.J -Z U a 5 I r* u i H . o p e n f il e *.* f o r our?t it 2 s # ?. ref: CTRACT = 1 TO <?-?9V E:>u> THEN GOTO 20.1C ELSE GC3UB 2CLO: REN Ts ae\ M--.., [ u mo - o t h e n 30$ = "uLMor" P........ :,v> ; : !-M"M ;..r.nt - i :MF-i = 0:'- -.Ye i- Y ' <- RTO:. S : >. - SO - L.Sn (TITLE*) / 2 f o r g m : l rc t l '/.j t it l e * = - " * t it l e *; n e x t b v . LPfi INI CHS*U2 s LPRINT" LPRINT" "a LPRINT TITLE* ;?R[N T Mill; BD* " BOUND ESTIMATES OF DAILY LEAD UPTAKE BY LRR fNT TAB(20) "FOP COHORTS IN CENSUS TRACT TRACTS MGn O I 2o .iTO -PRINT " A-je ..PRINT YEAR " Poo Year Daily Lead Uptake suq- .ia/i t ' Mon'.!* 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 ;J ? * C- 1 A . *' C ' w . .. ... - .. . : ' i.:/: * A - ' '300 ..:31.0 T.VTJ :3-'- + ' . -/ :*: : : "CM OM ., TO O STEP -1 L.,*:- Ipr- LPR J NT........ s LPRINT USING '### '*; AC: s l FMm FOR LiC; i i ;-53 rv = 0 -- A6 FRO V = .s TO LASTY s t e p -1 CY = VEAR - ft v V-; Lf- PINT " ': ; LPRINT "2 CUTF .. " C? - . 974. ," `,:h .Y/t = 'v" r iEN CM -:AL - V-Krt I . ,i" CVS.- = "N,; OR uv$ = FPiNP #2. .. ,,, THEN CRvAL. = 2F.ALT Y PR.INT *2., USING" 1 \ "! TRACT-* i PRINT 1*2, USING" rr##" ; AG; PRINT #2. USING"##### "} POP(AG); PRINT #2. USING"##### CY, FCR MO a 1 TO 12 IF < OUT A 3{Y,MQ > > CROAi.) THEN PH = l ELSE PS = 0 SCSUB 2560; REM #** Dust Interpolations *** i; >. .!q h a ke Ca Jcnl/itl on a <-.*1 ._FF j. : . f vSIHO " s TDL-Js .'.V fx r i 7.,: . - ~DU.H V.IX f p i:4r #2.. " = -e :.-r )& .F '"'.YTI " i_F R i NT" " ; LF01MT" . ^ UYlfu-. 'r-*=-.* r: r. )' P 1.7 " rxT`'Co."icrts in this table includes" A-- IF GRPUii = "Y;l OR SRP*< 1 > ~ "v" THEN LPRINT " uPH\ur- scar... . ,:c : v-io 2 r.., Ui Tv !.- CFO'* i 2; 1F IHFiMI; IF Or f i-' 4; I" ORP <5; "V" OR "i" OR a "Y" OR "Y" OR CRP-F12. SRF*i3! a SRF*^4> = GRFT(5) = *>" ''"HEN Mv" THEN "v" THEN "y" THEN LFRINT " LPRINT " LPRINT " LPRINT " LPH\unrou-"-e . u- . LPH SC'UP i , ;-'i -i", - . LPH\dcui'ic, Ju. i? C; ". --P : . > * !. t :.. v IP CRr-i=iL/ - "V" OR SPPiM/ = "v" THEN LPRINT " MV?-:: !*o - vu -i-I s LPRINT TP EM 63 > *'Paoe";PC3 non -LP.-L no Cv'L ' ' ) : T L'TRfiC I; PCI'- *** Er.d of cal oul as ions for census t.'vu :~ '--PRINT CHH* (12) ; s PRINT l F-Us LF^s 'Calculations rano X -s leu. '' ..32-t TOCAvT = CATE*: NCHF = TIMERS LPRINT TODAYS; *; NCwi ' Ti.Z3 CLOSE #i .#2 Yi D PHD :,-.nfO REM REM * Dust In teroel at i on sut-roi.it i ne #** F T; _ TEH 0414086 1M:MV .MO; : IF AC f. i.. S r: |JJN SOTO 262') = DUEV1 : 10.PS.BMC) + (DUST:-. : 11 ,PS .2ND) / .25 s RAM 0.23 " width af last - DU3T2(iD.PC.ND> + <EU3T2lit.PS.3ND; ? f* ~ r --cr . . . . .u 1. r ..... r - LU3TUiO.FS.DND) AO inter /ai 10 to EU5T2 < i.0 . PS . BND) DUP050454341 RETURN ? .! ; . -:Q i . r\ = o vn i.o .iira;oo)> 2 5& > *- .-to: i. : i <_ r.`: V cl A '. 2 x AifttCHk+u j t h e n 2340 .. .. .'E ; ic/- i 7.;- ; ' 2 1- r ~ . .'3 ' * . u j ST 1 \ CH/.. l :' S , CiV-; C'.e l 0 i 4 .F ;Ci !k - i ; '.IF 2;if-:; , T..v , 2 3;'ir * =. DUE :'2 (2H-.+ : . PS , B?tZ ` - 1 .2'..'.,' . :'0 , . s A j h 17 iC.HC : / \Air-:iC!::..:-:>--ArEfCv-i;.0 ) v.. i RETURN :...^yo REM ;y >g o REM *** Uctake Calc. -For Calendar Year <CY> , Year of Aoa (A3) . s': Month irU. 229.0 REM '700 IY 3i CY - 1974: REH Convert cal. year to index vear 2 710 ACS = OUTftia \ Y, MO > 2720 H = i-IC'JT ^Y.BNQ) s 10 = ICRATIO(Y,,PS,BND) 773C WAG = CM * AG i- i24-H) * IC * AQ! / 24 T-40 JfLCNS . ' vi: :FVL.r. : rM.- NPTRT 7 7 70 UPOIRT . ;"';0 1;J 2 ' ; v ' 2 I uKU VRESP (Y.E3ND) * WAG * AE3LUMG < Y, PS, DND> * ; 1NMT3C ; IY) -> INADIET (I'/> ) * AB3D1E T < Y.8N0- * CH * DiJSTST (12 - H) * DUSTIN) / 12 * DIR TCCN3CY.END) * WDIRT * ABSDIRTCV.BND) = URLUNCi <- UPDIET + UPDIRT 2300 iYEM M"M 4r-*****!Ht*^**** Census Tract Data Subroutine ? ? ** ;;**x-a-x '- ; *: * *: '.. PCM ... rr 7: rt <., t p .-c t * K '-.Ci-: i.'.c u-. peculation caca ** f OP ~ I re 2: INPUT #1. PPEG(SF) : NEXT SF: GEM ** Dp j -O*-. r RU- " LFS : "Census tract "s 2TRACT " = r uR ,-.u -- 1C g . 233.0 POP CAS) - 0 .-3 '"' > i! NFC T #1, SAME* TRACTS: " Chi id o:s, '* . 0; i..'v ?io ' 20 IF 3AME*< >TRACT* THEN PRINT LF*s SOTS 2520 FOR SP -- 1 TO 6 I Ni-'!JT #1 . GRPPOP "ERROR IN INPUT .FILE. 3 fur ' P!>S'_-";2;- IF Ck ":T . T'F) - "Y" CR SRF"*C3F ~ "v" V: tEM FOR-AC. = 7 ! 2. ' CP - .1 . f ~ .ore - r.T .]Pi - " THEN RGPiASJ = iC;: i As..- ^ "PINT OSINS "#### s PSP (AG;: -"- V. X r ilj C-M inoufc Ai * Ciueiitv Data *** ; u p riu = i re i2 Ix'u f tt.t, AC. I Ns AGIN = AGIN / 1000 L 0 REM Converi nanaoraros/cu.m. to fflicroorams/cu.m. or: inoufc FOR Y2 - S TO 0 STEP -1 YY = (YEAR-1974) -6 + Y2: REM BKGD<0~22> is -for !' ; 7 4 - : ? - .-. OUTAQ (Y2 . MC) * MUi_r<Y2> * AGIN + 3KGD < Y t ) NEAT Y2 NEXT MC nr.-"' :JRN TEH 0414087 DUP050454342 b 1-1*4 - /. D if7 T * ,2 f v' L '-? 1 v. 1 1 rr:-----f-/rr------------------ir> 1 2 /......41... 'TV 7 7 1 .-----r4?-----ry*"--**>"--"i---~?T' 157* 45 4) 45 45 45 46 45 4a 45 44 44 4 5 < / ' KJ ,. IJ - *3 ------------5-------3- i: ' 'J - -,- - 4" -f~. 6 4 0 4 2? >9 ~ : 4 4--- 4 * -- 4J ~- 51 * 2 5 i 5-7 5 7 r r 4 tZ 4 ?i iy , i"i 2>, -c't 2* ^9' 3'. 29 2v 29 -* ._i----------------? *.-----t.V^.4--,---------------------------3-------2-4-----44---------4^--------1|---------4-4.-----------4-5--------4-3-------4-1- 4 ?j -,7 7 52 52 52 5*' 52 5i 52 5c 52 --------4----------? a------1-2.?-------------------5-4--------------5-4-----S-s-----u-----5^-----U,-----5.4-----Sd- 4 7a 17 7 c 5? 56 5 7 56 5 5 *5 65 5 5c 57 Vt < V Ml*- -4 51 e: . Sm >5- 57 57 0 CX 4 4; =T * *- i - c tc 30 T -*^r* - -rr 4 r 65 4 0 4 5 4 3 44 4 4 4 ; **---5-J-- ~5-c---- rer -3V c.:v. **' 1 2 * i - 4 T i y > 9 2 7 c 4- 4 5"* "** 4 1 4 -y -* rC"" 4*4-- i-6- i"v Cr 5 3 WV --rr TEH 0414&88 DUP050454343 TEH 0414089 DUP050454344 it : L f 1 / w 0VT tr-i5---tti^jrr-e it 5 6 resTtr7a 1 -------------------c.<---------- 6 --ir"?--'~tr-----f*>--tt--f~---fr" ~r~z---~*y 45 4; 45 45 45 4 5 4 4 5 4 5 5-1--rc--5^--r=--<rz--rz--fy--*rr- ~rz 55 e 5 55 55 *5 65 6 d 53 65 $ *;1 ---- ^- 2- -- ^ ... --A- p - ** ?' s* ?; 17c ......-6-------- -r---- W-W i ? *, i y 7 -4 77p r/7 rr-^tr! 2* 2 ' * i 29 ?9 5 ., ? <* 5 - 29 2 V ?s / f / r /? 5 2 5 i 5 2 < *; ?2 C* Jz 4 7m 5 i 52 31 51 5 7 r C7 . 3w . . *J 5a 6o ?9 'c 52 5? " . 5S 57 ?7 * 7 4 ^ i r. c - / 'T--- ..^. y---y -- '--' ^,-- - ----3-; << 5 c ;. 5 4 ; 5-s------ 5-r------5-3------Sr--S:------5~r 4 5 44 ? < , 2'; 2-' 29 2'f :- *4-5~'--~-'"4-- - ir*^-- - -4A -- 6 v"'"--v 4" 4** --- -7--rv .u.-.o , `.o : : -- L'i* rr;--yr--S a------------- y ?v | TEH 0414Q90 DUP050454345 TEH 0414091 DUP050454346 *r* 7 L i) i, . T / U i. '> r * 4 ----------i f ^ '5*-- V -. 1 i < 456 7 2 1 v ~ 'u a.jy^rapyarjKvw crs----?C 1 r ?V T----- *'--'rr 2 4 1 T ? -*Ir= --Wt 62-5 1'/ 75 -H---- t Tt ----J-r 4 7 4 i 42 --r~---- y* 6 c 5? 52 rm----5-y--->r 2 7 ai 5 -i--- ------ -> r f-1------ ---- 5+ -J-V--S-i47 46 47 4 - 4 r " w---- 5-5-- yr " 2 56 5 ^ r-- ; g- t7~r ---*-T 6 T 6 7 65 67 c'i io `* 4......< 7 -- 6 y-' -7 * 7 _ 4 7 44 4 7 4 7 "7'5---- 5"" -- Tir 5 7 5 5 ' ': r 7 ^ ^.. .^4 j? - 4t'j 6? t? 0- hrQ'~'~ ~1? :? k.. r- V----- .. - *./ . 'fk . 51 7 H - "* 1 T . 51 31 3i '* 31 T - ;" Vv-74- - - -** --*4 -ty-- -*r *rr-----51 C* -- - - - 4 7- iC ' e y - 4 7 A / - i 7 4 ? 2 4 3 '3- 5 ? 53 b^ (v ^, 54 <. *i -----1- -------------- ----------- -S -1-- --W~---a-4- &tr- -- _c, J T 57 vi. - .. i. 1, ^ */ ^ . 4 : c; 3 6 1 6 i 6 . -" -tr ^ *. -V. .y_ ... -V-?"-- C -- ^4---6-5-- O-er- -67 --e>4- -- 7- 7 -- 4 44 <1 i. S'J II 50 31 31 Si 3: i----- ' ' 4 -- - - 1--y -" ? V 1 -!! -....... ' 7 ' 4 -j--- - 4"2'- * " 4 7 1 7 q ---1-- 4-7-- -4-j-.. 4 V1 -4-7-- 4 4 v 1,7c 54 si 53 54 53 54 55 53 54 1------ --c------- 7-3-1--------------------------------- Sr'l--S-fi------ 4^ .sit,----- 5-a--43----- 5-v---54- 4 4. ' i7 i 6.' ' ? 36 7 - *6 63 21 61 6- 4 2-r 1 47 44 4v 3-5--5-3 5f 5 47 -?-(i 37 -5-V ---< -- -- 4. 'r .1 -7. _. 11 -----p----------Z - * -- 47 4<j 46 47 4i 47 46 4 y 47 44 4? 4 7 t-4--"--t >i Jm.i 4 i i c'lii-.ii.--4^----551" - yy---- S'2-- fs--- ~3t -- -*-1----i-r y----H =TM -H---- -3-1 ~~C-----~v 4 7 4 6 46 4? ifi 47 46 - , 47 1 3. --rn^-r^T v~ str'-- 47 47 -%4I TEH 0414092 DUP050454347 * ! TEH 0414093 DUP050454348 G `-L * <1 : .. / CJ Ia e-^t--------- ----------------------------------------- 1 '-'v ' :n--' Y ; Aft )' it T1 ?-- trip-?7;-x---;-r-,-x- tff 3 4567 vw y^.rar *5crws w n . j " i- i ^ m + ***> Wfc-*'W -Wr"*. *> > . . re---- Hr?-- 'i 7 1 r?r- 1/ --- *4 1i 1 , ,V rr 7-*> 1-75 1* t*i J nr 4--746 * \A 1 .76 rtr 7, , jVu.----. 4 0 4- > a*--;' -.- -- a-,-*.T.......t!-.-*------- n........-.I-g. . . -Ui^-r- 4 * 4 6 4 4 4 4c 4 i hi Jn% m i C( . . 5? : 5 7 6 s- 56 5 7 117 5? 5 7 -34----S----5~" --Z~r.-----5- -5-4------ 5-9------5-5----- 3966 65 65 63 65 66 #6 6s 66 -f?--rr--rr----*r?------*rf----rr-- e-7-----irr-- &r~ -r-------' y 4 5 45 '. 7 5 a 5.11-. ..* J... 6 4 6 5 * 7 ....A?... 5 : ?> 3- T - Tv 5 . 7 2 - "t -v --4-' / ' -- --6 q - 66 --- 4*-^ 5 j 6 i 5 2 fi r j 5 i 5 3 5 3 -y~r--- ------ j-7------ * *"-- "55-- 9-7-- --3-7----- 3-r 5'? 5: 5'; : 4 57 55- 2 ~s+.---- 9-3-----r-T-------------4rD-----j~i-..... 66--- 6 d- ? . ' ? "r t. <* 4 2- 4 5- : 5 5 3 s 1. 7-- >r> *-56 2 7 5 j :. <. ^ * ^ J * ... i -j 1 V " 4. > 5 > rn `n v c- *. 5 >3 2 . 71j .5 .1 . 3 5 _ * Z ' 29 ?v tS .-_--------- --4-4.- 6-"--4^J---- ----6-5------i-5-----4-7------------ 53 5 : 53 5 i r 3 3 5 3 52 5 tf 3 4 v -j . 6 > ^ * 5 ^ t . efc 5 9 5r 5 r. , 7itr __ '4 r. 4 5> u; i 6 jy-J___ i__.---- C.S. 3i 5 s 5 0 46 s -mz/. 5 / 5? -r--c 404 c 4 C 4C 4 6 45 4; ____^ s !V. ... t ,, a i. 4 is 40 4 46 46 46 4 45 L>'*u\! '-!J - 0 ..<? '.' - rrr^t^i -5 s------- TEH 0414094 DUP050454349 1 "'r--=Trp- ~r t i> IL Y P' UF -'`iff t c TH t !'H-\ v r i 1 lT TEH 0414095 DUP050454350 G . L * / l DU 5' ' t,2/u 1 ' .i -fJ Y t Art t.~ / i: ----5~:-----*-r->------------------------Sr-1----f-r- :i-;< i .. i i . ft 7 7 : 5Y L- ' ?? 3 =- t 1 6 2 - s. . T / w ' ' } ?; ~ Ur 75 W4 71 - -T -- -fT- --*-1 - ---r-i-- --- ft i A 7 52 4 7 4 7 r; 4 4 45 -TT- i. t - . -"7M -- T t - -r-r A 4 i i 5c 57 43 5c . i. j - ?^ + i *"T?; 7 j <57 7> <57 7 -1 *\ 4 * 4 -e-y 7 c * v t r-" 71 * V = ; :4 1 } - yl - : ------- --- : 7 4. * -------- > 7 -- - ^,.7^;-------------------------- --44- *4 --*4- 71 / ( -W~ ->r- ..-i-7_ 72 > v-U **' 3/ 'f .. 4J. ... ~ ~ _ * 7 / 7- i4 *. . ** r* . . 5: !4 :. 5c ^? t rt . ...-------- r, f t ?-A---------- - -- => v-- r ----*.-- C -- N-i t . .... > / - * jr - r-t>- 4, : 7 1 ,?i , -7 V t 7 w -JL4- ----- r~=-- c <- *. V \V fto *> V .... * r,n 1 55 : -- 5r -*e---4?. ------ 7.. - 44- *' t -* - ft ? . TEH 0414096 DUP050454351 = sr v s -s t t -s t -----rr^nr L'lLV Pi: Ut'TSX; jY FONTh ------------- -j-------------- s___e--------------- *---------------?-------------- *--------------- T Q/ (' - ; , "7 * 5 1 51 11 W- 4-r 54 55 rr c M 'r v 2 1` 2# 21 3. 4-5----if3---- 6-r 53 5i 54 52 --rc--5r-- 5r 5o jj fc. 55* t'5-- rr-- tf- 6-5r if 6 c 6 V 67 7. 4-e:; 5"7~ r- 7 6c i7 C" i f ijj -%*" -5 7 :7 -"Hr- 66 65 ' 4------ =r?~--H'-Ht --------4.- < ) --'."-i -- *?-- -? & HH----------- Hr-- -3 ? 54 --6H--*v~ ----<-- ` 47 *979 43 47 ,4 ft 4? 46 5 j 45 4 5 4" 46 t-J: i --' *---------W---------------------------------r4-------H4-----5-5----6"------ra---5-7--5-5-------r-=-----5-4------5-5-----*-----rH------- - 4? 1477 5 2 5.* 5<" 57 e7 6 1 56 5o 5; 5c c7 : ----ff' -----6 ------rrr;- - --...... fc..-- ....I -- V' J-y- -- -------5-g--5 C "-- 6"? --5 r----^y-- --~ 1-------- 21 2 1 21 2 ! ,, ii 7 4 *-- "m 7..... 4 > A 7 " v j - 3.--------- ^5. - ~ 3, ,L.. --5--- 4 3 4 3 4f- T ' -24- -4 Jy -- 46 45 45 U 4c -5fr~ "V - Uc 4 7 t 3 iJ -^ * - - - ~i *4 3 C : 7 c . '7 !5 U u JV - ' t v* 1v73 3 5 C 3 it 30 ------------ i-i-i---- -4-4-3-i--------------------- -~5r-P---*-?--" yr-- .... 'r --4f-?~ 5 'j ,j i -* *7 3 3 56 :3 "7 57 1 V."1 -7 j 'j -r?- - "Z r ^7**** ;*r 6 5 64 * M ^ A 37 4 ,i. -Hi- ~CMr----- 7 -- *> 7- -- 4y- ? - TEH 0414098 DUP050454353 APPENDIX CBIOKINETICS PROGRAM AND SAMPLE OUTPUTS 54 TEH 0414099 DUP050454354 t'IZ.'i - > :v - *. B1C-K I MET I Co versiar 2 * * * * # * * . .w *~ Pa i :-u 1 &r i eau orcsn ourden . for ccntinuocs 3:-; d o sura or :oh.;rts. Ffc>i h roaram ad anted -t ram Dr. N. I iar lev, NYU School t-i Medicine. i2 65. fjIM CBuBD <34> .C3GDL <34) . SCALE (84) .FACTOR (S4) 30 DIM GU<6),CLiSuTtS; -0 DIM T&v6,S4).TCI34),TBQ<84),TL<S4),TK<S4),WT<84) 7 `.J .0Li'-'i CBLUR<84> ,WTB<84> ,WT80<84> ,81(84) ,CLIGU<84) ,WTFAC<84i SO DIM UPTAKE <6.12), HIGHS<260,6), SUM12MC6), SUMYFU6), 3UMMCK 6,12) 50 DIM CGR0UP<6>, CP0P<6), SUMHI <6> , HIGHPB<260.6>. BEGM<6> 100 DIM TRAVSQ < 6;. TRAVS6 < 6>, TRLVL36< 6) i j u TODAYS DATESs LF$ CHRS(iO)s LPRINT CHRS<12)s CL5 . JO PRINT r A3<12) j. :o PR N f TAG il2> : >. 4 j PRINT "AR : .2) BIOKINET CCS 1 SO PRINT TAB <I2'> Version 2.0 L ,= J PRINT TAS<12i Calculates and--c-f-frontn b i aoci l e-:- d i : ! PP.iNr TAB ( i 2) : 50 PRINT TAB dl; Concentrations -far cnidren acie v-6 % ears ":0 PRINT TAB;12 > V ; INI . 'iffl ' j. 2 ~ ? . PR l!: r (2 g a a "AD \ 33 / TODAYS TAB <70) ,, , .. Strateqies and Air Standards Di v = s- qri r . I i i 1 ' a 21 PRINT "AS <i21 . -:0 PR IN i i.F LPT"-; "SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS:" OSG PRINT "En ter name of study area or principal point sour*. (i :-i CAi INPUT 3RC$ 260 PRINT "Enter nname-at control scenario to be analyzed (in CAPS): INPUT CTRL# 27:.* INPUT "Enter 1 it year at child exposure <4 diaits): ". YEAR 2S0 IF YEAR<1980 C YEAR>1997 THEN PRINT "PROGRAM ONLY FOR 1780-3 r?7 : GOTO .0 o NFUT "Enter n \b at incut rile in DUS -format; ", FILET V 1: u: j I "What tv-ca of retake estimates --- ueaar < 1 > or lower <0; '-c-- i ' u. P7.1;;T ' Do ,-GU want tne aeoinetric mean blood cor.rgn:rj.,r- , :r esc m _ *. ; -.f U" "tract na the next ta last veer or exposure <'< N; Did. ; IT-n wf is 1 'r,.outs aomotate. Press iShif t-PrtSc. to print sued i ' ic r:;p:.ji 1 iter, or ; 'ENTER' to continue: ", C$ .,5. ! 2 f -XT L~-f; LF-fc; 'suss to initialize arrays of data in prop- am, . ; .. urir.arv excretion half-times Ar j ...V, V, a '/ I 9. v,u, i 0 330 FOR 1%= 0 TO as READ SCALE<r%> s NEXT 17. "30 rCR IT- i TO 84 4 PC KZ- < r/.-l) \1 2 ! , >? CBl.UR < ON- LGGi2>/ SCALE CK/O 120 NE'.a CL 4*^0 RDM bone turnover scale 440 OAT;-, 33.33,3t> ,33.38.3S. 38 -3 SO f o r IX= V TO e>; READ FACTOR < I/i) 5 NEXT 17. S- "D '* p u r IW~ 1 TO 84 + a/ 1 I 2-- 1 i \ .1.2 CbuSO a %; = . 3* FACTDR (KV. > /So -- -7 * mE.-. '!" T L --5- .. u: -v 32 ; ; y; r'! *** tor.a removal h.alf-times c'A Vi 1 ; 35. U3. 1133,1135,1135. ilSS.ii3S P2P IL 0 1 Cl 6= READ FACTOR! 17.) s NEXT IX FOP I 1 TO 84 yi-i TY.l- rv ,1 :-.X~ 1 > X I - \ 1 T LhOBt. !'/.;* LOP (2) /FACTOR <K>.j NF tr IL R Eri 01 lot -cvi fact-- rs DATA - T.. n n ir"r u T ,. 1 T rj ^ TEH 0414100 DUP050454355 ?>.J I .-f' L- i >J r. S -.L.i-MiJ J JUvi. n Jj WUiA \ i A aO'J DATA 5*3.5*55,i0. XO a 10 FOR r-i 0 TC a: READ CLISdt C j4/.i s' Mff 1% ji'LO "CP i"/.= I TO 24 ...3 i ; i l - ;. > 12 ClAdJ\L%: = CLiGUTuOL .. ' = G,j LCD .* NtN : I- ... v REM z** tJndv we; ont. wi th aqa <s30 DATA 4,5.6.6.r,7.4.3,8.5,9,9.2.9.6.10.10,4 o90 DATA 12. 12, 12,12. i 3,13.13,13,14,14,14.14 700 DATA 15,15,15,15,16.16,16,16,17,17,17,17 7iC DATA 13,18,IS,iS,18,IS,18,18,18,18,18,18 -?20 DATA 19.19,19,19.19,19.19.19,19,19,19.19 ' /3o DATA 21.21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21 -40 OATA 2 3,23,23 -23,23,23,24,24.24.24,25,25: REM Added line '70 FOR IV,- !. TO 84 DC READ *T < X*/. j "! if-,TS (; V,) -- 60 fiUT < 17,) 730 NEXT i:. yO RiijTi *--?. Use .Tiitcheli Ca data and divide bv .37 -for ash weiant 30' DATA 30.40.43.50.35,60.63.73,30.55.92.100 6Lv> DATA 105.105,110, 115,120, 122. 125,130,135,137.140 , i 43 520 DATA i50,151.155,157.160,162,165.167,170.173,175,130 PD- 0f i! A 180.182, 185.135,, 1S8.190, 190,192,195.19*,*90.200 : V OOTn 200-"03.205,206,207.,2i0,210.213.21 1,215.. 217.220 a -V, ,*A 220,221,223,325.226,230.230,231,232.735.236,240 v.. : t a .4 t .1. -Ij, -, ; , 4 r. . 4ad ,^51 ,, 234 2a3,25 7 26d . 2o.c.. 2Go; Him _ CDa*; rGi'. l ";~ ; 7u 34 rvt~-iO W i .BO * X f, ) DO in bO(I%> W"80a%)/.37 Roc n e ,'T n; 7 i 0 REM * * ** * x*#*-**-*#*#*#*******-***-************************* *#**** **+ * * 920 PRI.NT LF#: "Bscin calculations -for each cohort within census tracts; i; 930 OPEN FILES* FOR INPUT AS #1 940 FOR CTRACT - 1 TO 9999 -50 CT = CTRACT IF GiTDL) THEN GOTO i 140 7 ' T ..;R AC - 6 TO 0 STEP -1 *2J 71 IriPUT ttl, BLANK#: REM Elan;-; line precedes aqe arouo data. FOR Y = AG TO 0 STEP -1 D-dO INPUT #1, TRACT, OSROUP (AG) , CROP < AS), CYEAR lli.) *02-; TRACT# ~ STR*(TRACT) s PRINT LF#s LF# FOR i_- i TC 5: IF LEN (TRACT#) <7 THEN TRACT# - TRACT#-i D DS.-T i03. O-'K. D`D :C-T ;: PRINT LF#? TRACT#; CGROUP(AG); f OR MO = l TO 12 INPUT #1, UPTAKE ;Y, MG) PRINT LrTAKE(V,M0>; Nil XT MU CROPiAG)? CYEAR: '. i ' :DC .. i :-P INi- LF#sLF#;s S0SU8 1190; REM Cohort calc, tor aae or aura .-;G NEXT AG PRINT LF#s LF# . -.1 TiTSl.!;-: I "GOi REM r ** Cutout Tabls For 1 census tract 13l: NEXT CTRACT D -i-T 3CSUB 2590s REM *#* Output tables required 10/11/85. * ** 1150 NON# = TIME#; LPRINT CHR#(12); LF#; LF#? TODAY#; 11 4 NOW# L IraO L !. 70 . 1 SO . t 90 ".TOP END PEM REM **- .***** *#***** * Process One Cohort * ****** x * h * * v-< * . r 12.-.0 12.; i . 1240 REM ': ; initial va 1 ues for THOME ~ 200: DDCilE. ~ 0 TLI'.LR - 0; 'Dl -IVER ~ 0 TTIDNEV ~ 0: OKIDi.liY * 0 each cohort; ! TEH 0414101 ! 1 DUP050454356 i i i/tlUUU - u 2*0 '! = 1 270 G5._L I LOG (2) / (10*T) ; CLIBL - LOG < 2) / < 23 *T) 2 GO CBLKI " '--G3 7: 'i / (30 *T; i CKIBL * LOG <2) / ' 10*T) Kiot. 3 200; l'i$C ~ SOCOs NLI = 170;;; WK I 300 i"S: ** > ilao-.uUtions far eacn month of live i 2 .'.A h O". -- AG . &N0.10 - I S|0+ i ! i. 2 1-340 rOF r%= 1 TO ENDMO 1330 VEX = <17.-1; \ 12: MOT. = 17 - YR%-*12 1360 PRINT " TRACT55'' * TRACTS; " AGE GRPP=";;AAGG:; " YR=";YRX: hU=``: MOX; J. 370 13-90 INJECT UPTAKE<YRX,MOX) PRINT " INJECT""! INJECT; " BLOOD i.JPO PGR JX= l TG 30 14C-u REM *** blood *** .410 DBLGOD = INJECT + (LOG <2) /CLIuL <I7.) ) *TLIVER*SI < 17.) ; 4 20 DBLQOD * OBLOOD - CBL3CKIX;-h-TELCOQ - CELL I -s-TBLQOD - CU= I * TBl 'C'! : i GO j. 440 QBLOOB = DBLGOD + CBGBL<IX/*TBONE + CLTBL-*Tl I VER + CK16i_* IX I ,.;Ni. ' DBuGOD -* DBLGOD - CBLUfi<17.) *TBLCQD . 450 ) -OrO IBi-tlGD = rSLOOD + OBLDGD REM *** 1 i er *** i -60 ;0 Ol iv e r = c g l l i *t g l g g 0 - c l ig l *t l iv e r 71, I VER ^ TLI VER OLIVER ft PM ** - 1 /c l i g u >: i7.> *l o g < 2 * * :l 1 /er . *i'\* OH IONEY .` i ' n-. roNEv 3 EM * ; r.j UtsOiViS = !. 50;2 i 3oO VBC.1E " n e x t av. rg<AS%.ix + DBONE 100: REM Convs.rt uq/mi to uq/ai i 37 0 PRINT U3II ISOO IF IX=36 ' 1590 REM'*** l 600 IF <GMQ$= OR GMQ$=un") THEN GOTO 1640 CMOYRX = AGX - 1 [; < y RX:r>MGY/; > THEN TRSUMD = TRSUMQ T3<A6X.IK; " Ei x i. : . , -r ,r .ViC-;>6; THEN GuTG 17)0 i- 7 r Jl* WT * CP CP . Afi ; *-LC7 C TB (AGX , I % 5 ; : j j V : ~C ; li':;.. SU.-tM0-.VRX.Ma7.) = 3UMMG ' YRXMOX) f POPNT IP (1'. "36> THEN SUMM36 = SUMK3-6 PGPLT TP t fDsAGX.X'/.) > HISH6<CT.YR%> > THEN HINH6 < C r . VRX i ~ i'B ; MLX . i >., 3Li2H<YR-/.J = 3UMi2M(YRX) i TBIAGX.I/.) . } :ij MLr I:: . , 1 ; TP AVSS t AG 5 -- TRSUMQ/ 12s TRSUMQ = Os REM reset for nex fc census t.ac-t ; 720 PRINT AG: " TRAVGQ<AG)=": TRAVGG(AG) L 3'.; REM ** Qsom. means for 7-vear cohorts (AG==6) . 740 ir <soc) t h e n g o t o is s o i 75u 1 1 1 '70 i ' s : / ?c PGR ?20 ro 6 SUMHI { V2) 3UMHKY2) + CPQP < AG; *LOG (HI6H6 iCT. Y2; ) YEARAVS SUM12M<Y2)/12: SUMI2M(Y2) 0: REM Reset 3UMYR(V2) ~ SUMYRCYZ) + CPQP(AG?*LCS(YEARAVG; TRAVG6 < V 2; YEARAVG *** S.G00 NEXT YX iS.iO TOT6 TOT6 + CROP<AG) i 327. Sli>'i = 0 ; 230 FOR Y2-O TO 3s SUM * SUM + H1 Gh'6 (C'~, Y2) : NEXT Y2 2340 SUMMA = SUMl'IA t- CPGP < AG; x-LQG (SUM/4) ; REM sum/4 avc .1 330 SUM = O i. EG-.1 FOR TC 6; SUM SUM + HIGH6<CT. v2) : NEXT Y2 13 70 SUMME == jiJITIB - CPGP (AG) *U3G (3UM/3) : REM sum/3 = avo i3u RETURN ,390 REM TEH 0414102 i 7p0 P.r'f'; ff-s-s jSs'*r-.v* Outc-ut table for c nsus tract * #*#****-***-*#^-*-::-jf-* DUP050454357 i/i-U i *70 !V.>0 : .40 or*.-; , rrr > O;... L.~ J'.'tti ~ `Ji, iitH Ju - wuWtiK IF OMD l THEN BDt * "UPPER" TJI'l E# - RPC# I- " - ' + CTRL# 1L:; = 35 - LF'N ( TITLE#: / 2 cnr so * j re t it l e # * ' riT._E$s n e x t &/. ; PF L%L .p r in t iOS ; - I ; ; LFT; i.Pi; TITLE# j o #: ' s o u n d e s t m2 t e s cr e-yj-oF-rtahirH s i-c -o d L V!-:T E) "CONCENTRATIONS TCP COHORTS IN CENSUS ; PAL V ....EAu ; 'RLE i i : zzxistxsjzr.'zzxzxr/z trrtrrt . :: dr TvOO LPRINT " Aae End-af-Month Blood Lead. Concentration (u o /g A )" 2010 LPRINT YEAR; " Poo Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 S 9 10 *1l i if j- LOCO LPRINT"---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- SOTO FOR AG 6 TO O STEP -1 .:.T0 Li'-RINT LF*s s LPRINT USING"### #####"? CGROUP<AG> , CPCP (AS:s (rlL; FOP Y 0 TO AG 7 :#>0 TV = YEAR -AG + Y; LPRINT TAB(13> YY: " "s ;:0'0 FOR MG = i TO 12 '3v'. i - v*12 MO LPRINT USING "### TB(AS,I) ,* 4 120 IP YY < > YEAR THEN GOTO 2120 .7,110 IP TBfAG.I) > HIGHPB (CT, AG) THEN HIGHPB (CT.AG) * fdiAL.I) .. : . U HEX : NO 2 NE < ` . Y : LG ..FFTr.lT L..=#,; cs -r -- j. crrs-scs -r iiGv rRPCF = o Lire FOR AG 0 TO o: TRPOP = TRPGP + CPOPCAS)s NEXT AG 2150 PEN *# Dcnns Sledqe oction; 21=0 IF. '>GNa#="N'' OR GMQ#=un,`> THEN GOTO 2280 2200 TRPOPQ =* TRPOP -- CP0P(0)s REM aae 0 not barn in newt-to-last year. 2210 FOR AG i TO 6 ?22C LOGAVS - LOG(TRAVSQ(AG)) .'70 "irSUMO - WTSUMQ + CROP (AG: * :_OQAVG L; LF> T AG *.iF.GrlU = EXP'.' JTSU'.'iG. TRPOPQ) ; WT3UM0 0: REM Reset fa*" ns. ; cens-is ... - ..:2cC; ;..PPINr "Fcoulation-Weiahted Gsametric Mean Cone, durma" ; Cv E2 P- . : 2270 LPRINT USING "###.#"; GEOrtQ;: LPRINT ua/dl," 2 REi? *s-x- -Terf Cohen footnote: .V.TF:j! j.M3c--Os rr<P0P3t"0 2<00 PER KU-2 TO * -.3 ic rr:pcP3rt - t r p o p 36 + c p o p <2 g ) 2320 TRSUM36 - TRSUMS6 CPOP(AG) * LOG(TRLVL36<A8> > o r.o l s x ': 2 s :7-i-o VRGM3o EXP c TR3UM3&/TRP0P3<s> 2ZzO .'..nRINT "Pepal ation--Weiahted Geometric Mean Cone, in 3Lth -.2 o ,, * `: ~7LPT. IN '' USING "###.#"; TRGM3E; ". >' O L-'F.IWT " uq/di." .: ",Ct PEi-'i r TOP '.'2-...T TO Zi TpsUMA = TPS.JMA + LOG (TRAVG6 iY2) i : NEXT t 2 T-i'.-'T TP:.i*'A ~ EXP i ff-.-SUMA/4< : T.RSUMA = Os REM reset for next censu: tt ac~ T.Tii.- l .PF.1 NT "Seematric Mean of Annual Ava. Cones, for Che G4--ir,or tn i :ov-.nr ' 2120 LPRINT > Ourina Years"? (YEAR-6) s "-"j (YEAR-3): ,, 430 LPRINT USING "###.# '8 TRGMA? s LPRINT " ua/dl " i4C; FuR Yl>4 VO i>s .TRSUMB = TRSUMB + LOG (TRAvG6 (Y25 ) s NEXT Y2 24o-j TRjsMB = EXP * TRSU!i8/3i : TRSUMB - Os- REM reset for next census tract >447 LPRINT r i r.c Years" s (YEAR-2) s (YEAR); "a": N ; UP I NO " t-rf#. : TAGHRs i LPRL'-T * uoAU . ' "5Uf;A - ; TGctB -- Ot PEN; Rsat for next census tract L-ifiY PEN as-Jr TEH 0414103 j E-L; I...PRINT "fiiahest end-cf--month blood lead occurrinq in" s YEh P? " fav see ere.-:.;--- LT:i O FDR G -* 0 TG 4 DUP050454358 ' f # 2530 itr'K 2550 wr * `" ; .) -c: i-'-O 10 2620 2630 2640 . J-; LPi IF NEOV G i ji ~ =r. ;; :!f:i : : ,.PP I i'4T ...FT; LF$: HLTL.P;: ;r -r*.; PPM *~-*i- **** output Tables . LPR TNT LPRINT LPRINT LFRINT L PRINT TABt32> !,F-.we'; PG for All &4-Mom:h Cohorts in Study h.r-ca *< > .(: ** 2650 LPRINT 2SoO LPRINT tsrsissssssns=c n 20/ .! l p p .i n r ccso wi" t i f. r i ear Mean Blood Lead Conoentr -.ltivn tuc^d; ) 1 2345673 10 t .lo?..:- (.PRINT " -------------------------------------------------- i_fr4: s 2700 POk Y -- 0 TO 6 3/10 YY = YEAR - 6 + Ys LPRINT TAB (13) YY; 272C FOR MO * l TO 12 ^uEDMNG = EXPi3UMM0(V,M0) /T0T6) 2 10 LPRl NT USING "### GEOMMOs .. CO i-i,..H r\Q 'c: .ic : v r rt. to; .. 27S0 LPRINT LF*sLT*sLF#sLF$s LPRINT TAB (33) "Table 2.." 27 >0 LPRINT TAB (12) "GEOMETRIC MEANS OF BD$; " BOUND ESTIMATES. OF ANNUAL AVI PAGE 2300 LPRINT TAB(15) "BLOOD LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR ALL 84--MONTH COHORTS ` ":-70 l .PRINT TAB (20) " l 'iC; 1 TAB (20) '' Year Mean Blood Load " Concentration (ua/dl) 0 TO i * '*F Aft - 6 + Y; LPRINT TAB (70) YY; " G2BMVR a EXP(SUMYR(Y)/TQT6)t LPRINT USING . if": EEGi'TYR IF ! 3 THEN 3Uhl = SUM I i- GEOMYR IF v 3 THE?- SUMS * SUM2 * GECMYft .' . 'vo ' S sum / 4s MEAN2 * SUM2 / 3 2720 LPRINT uF*;LF$; TAB(20) : (YY-6) M~,: (YY-3) ; TAB(33) ;: LPf.IN: U3i;i3 " '? IT . S MEAN1 ,:430 SPRINT LF*;; TAP f 20- s (YY-2) (Y/) S TAB (33) f ? LPRINT JUImC 'HsO.rFL MEAN 2 27SO LPRINT CHE* (12) s LFT;LFS ...960 LPRINT TAB (17) `SUMMARY DATA FOR S4--MONTH COHORTS" ." 70 LPRINT TITLE#; LF4: LF& ...VCD PCF rl-0 TG 6; 3EGH(Y2> == EXP (SUMHI <Y2)/TOTS) 5 NEXT Y2 29 nO LFRINT TAB;10) " Table 3, Study Area Means (b) of Hijnest ' 310C00 iU-P"k INT TAB<(1100) " End-o-f--Montn Blood Lead Concentration bv Conor! `-.us *' *0 i 0 LPRINT TAB(1C) 30,,.0 LFRINT TAB;10) Conort I Calendar ! Blood Lead 3030) LPRINT TAB; 10) Aae (Years) i Year ! Concentration (uci/dl > 304 0 LPR INT TAB < 1*0 ) V.3C FUR V.L. * O TQ 3060 Yv = .'EAR 4.0 70 L.FRNT! TAB ..) " i !'J Y2J " ! "i YY; 3030 uPRINT UUS3ING CEOM (Y2) : : LPRINT " 3090 HEX T Y2 TEH 0414104 DUP050454359 U." j. |'-i 1 3110 LPRINT LFT;LF$ 31 20 ODJMA - EXP <3U TCT6) s SE0K3 *= EXf(i3UMK8/TaT6> ;>:30 LPRINT f h P (1; Table 4* Studv At s a Means<b) of 81 ood US--; : 1 40 wFFINT TAB (10; indicator s (c) ov Cahart Ac.e ; ; -,c l :t t;u TAB -.10? '. ~ 1: ' roe ? ;.o; i. :',.- LPRINT ; Ab * '-3 ? Cohort ! Ace<V ears > ! Gal and at" Years LJi ood is 1 i'-di atcr Concsntrati .si (us ", =;0 LPRINT TAD viO> i -- 3190 LPRINT TAB <1.0 " I 0-3 ! (YEAR-6is (YEAR-3? 3200 l PR I NT US INS "##,, tt" s SEQ.'iA; : LPRINT " 3210 LPRINT TAB(10) "! 4-6 i '; (YEAR-2i? YEAR: 3220 LPRINT US ING " ###. {*" ; GEOMB s : LPRINT " 3230 LPRINT TAE (10) " +------------------------------------------ ;------------------------------------------- 3240 LPRINT LFSj LF* 0.23G GEGH36 = EXP(SUMM36/T0T6) .7260 LPRINT TAS(IO) "Popuiation-weianted Geometric Near Concentration 32 "0 LPRINT TAB<10) "in 36th month of life ="5 3730 LPRINT USING "###. #'; GE0N36SS LPRINT " uo/dl . ' 3 2~0 LPRINT LF.S?LFSs LF*5 " FOOTNOTES! 3300 LPR1 NT " (a) Seven year (84-month) cohorts ar born Januarv 1 of chi 33 i 0 LPRINT first year and experience 7 -full years -84 moot-`3/ " 3320 LPRXi-iT of exposure prior to their 7th oirthday." 3330 LPRINT 3340 uPRfNT Table 1-4 means are popui at i on-wei ah ted aeo.-.set? ic mear of a blood lead indicator for the seven-year cron or t i. ' l FT. I NT 32 I LPHIKT 35C I NT 33?0 LPRINT 3400 RETURN Ci census tract," Table 4 b (.cod lead indicator for tr-u se r - - ;it one census tract is the arit-mieti. = ' me*r. o .-l c i month blood concentration durir.u each year 1 n -a years." : i ; s&r i3 U f TEH 0414105 DUP050454360 **. m .... .... -PO? 'f-Z! uLCOC p' Cu"C 1----------1--------- i--------- 4--------- 5---------**-*--------f--------- c--------- -- 1-1---------------------V-?~- P Cf5*f L ' T I 0'< * * si'V's'rtrc : ... --T-y -i--V _ ^ raw r:c c'c^rn ic -s 2 k c c k ;. . d u r in g tcrrt-f---5--i-r^-lrr't-I'C--***i--Wtrtrr"-T * Or - 1 *J-tL - V t i. .* *.C 3 f iH- *-- =~4 --v ------------------- 7-J ^ "* .< T ri C 1 TEH 0414106 DUP050454361 -t -rir-vv ft "i-r ' i h'W;:: i ... -t~ ---- 7: / f-|----------- -LOl.'i' L.-J CCC!'-i'-(i I\' { i -} t i )= 1i. ----------( . --) s--ra->~5 ( ; ): 'iJP: TEH 0414107 DU P050454362 Mr -j- AG.: ~r-xr-^---*-ziVr------ ~-- --y ul o o c pr co*^c ------ ;------ 1.------=- f- r IV *VI I V r JL --------T- 9i f -1 -T 44. 7 -V'f -- F C PilL ' T I GH T 0 *} :w = TrtIC ,if Ci'iC. DU'I'G 1779 = 17. y UC/Ct. -hr- --*- *n--. V~t*r/ ---------------- -- \Ci . fg' THS p4*y^.Tn I<'H''7T ^ y.-.*- *- | , ,, , ,, --^ ,,,, * _ ^ ..... . | TEH 04141o 8 DUP050454363 T I x H I t : r ---- - ... -j il -f fWW C C C "i ' {} I J ='~ }= 'C.7 by TEH 0414109 DUP050454364 ---------- --------------------- -/-t----------- -*r*-r-------------- tr^w ir--------- --'r-rvr-------------- AG ; *-~r----- H~7=---- cLOOD Pi Cs j 'IC 1------r------ i------ =------------ ?------i----- >--7"-->*-----1-r f +c---- rn- *M- -* FCP:*L * T I v'J- W i !GH T --1--HrP r7t-'~ri-*,;'7--s- r-rrrrt f- oic '.z~~: c - - vf ... -- --~ Hr-- Vrr C O'*;-"-: ?? rc ii -J'H -V . - = A`: Cv'NC . C US I AS 17'' --f*r--i *-T H--~Hr iv.'.rs. '/ T h ; " A *: 17 *? 2 us/n. -"-Try- -trS-Hf-V? C ' rf ' r * TEH 0414110 DUP050454365 - ------- '` ft h TC-H ;= .-':v )= i *.. 7 -rt- h `U'C? l.- CCC ->e 1 "G I-i i; )= 14< 5 7= *<.!> TEH 0414111 DUP050454366 frtn. ? - -3-rrt- u1 ca rrtr t ewE-: AGE 8L00D P8 --------4*---9*3>-'i-- r*-"a-r- ~^>r-A~ti--------------------1-------2--- ..i-i . r* * CONC . 4.f --,5------ 1 --9---1-5-- 44-----M--------------------- 6 36. 1974 50 41 35 32 29 27 26 25 25 ' 23 23 22 " ' C 4 *W 1 V i v " 1 1 IV t ' ' 1m W " (u 1 > 1 7 > 6 36. 1976 d Jc '1V?7 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 dd 4. im 4 23 25 23 .. ii 2 5 25 6 36. 1978 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 w 17 * f " """ " i 7 1 " n"7' ' i y 1 9 < 7 1 7 ' 0 " 4 a 4.0 1 7 20 a 36. 1980 15 14 1 4 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 V7 5 39. 1976 " _> > 7 * TTr? 5 59. 197b J ^ * --i , , / ' 5 59. 198 2 t W C v <m - 1 7 1 7 18 15 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 zn 2 j fi. 4 -> Z4 2 4 V4..... 2 4 23 2 im --' 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 i t "PTJ ' l * # y . J Ml j 7 4 ^ 1 y 17 y - 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 4 . .f 4 'fij'Q "* 45. * 48. ** 1977 1^??? 1979 l Jw 4 3 46. 1977 ? / *? 1 r*7* 3 4 3 * 1979 T j -i___ .U 4. 4. 1 gx" Jw 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 15 15 16 16 ->? -> * -r ** n7 77 tap C "b t* -r *1 14 u*41 nn 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 " * - 42 35 29 27 24 23 22 21 21 22 19 19 1 5 i_4 15 1 5 1 n . *<? ... 4 7 4 c 4 r 20 21 21 21 20 J*___f 20 20 2 ___ Ci 19 19 __2_Z___47_ 19 19 - .4 f -______ 2 41. 1978 ' 39 32 27 25 23 21 21 2 u 19 18 18 13 VT U- 1^7^ .............i *. -1 -A 17 4 1 4 *4 "T 4? 2 41 . 193 G 14 IS 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13" 13 14 i ,.,A___---4 ?-?- c41 . 198 G - 7 j -P 4 ------ 7 1 in I' *5 1 * 17 . . a -r. "9 99 99 9 9 9 9 --4 L. 99 4r 9 1 Lr 4 J,, nrr 1 srf w POPULATION -WEIGHTED GEOMETRIC V1 WW v GEOMcT.RTC --........o !>>'. &..* EAN OF ANNUAL AV 5Aas--i-;-?4-i-t-7-7-^- S A -. E AN CCNC DURING 1979 = 13. 4 UG/D1. LWhW 4 <t w u 1 t . iU 1 . N* W U j / 9 1 a CONCS . FOR THE 84 -MONTH COHORT s--trg'A-*4--------- TEH 0414112 - DUP050454367 A;' D i U tv I G 7 i, A * } 7 ii ^ 1 ? i J " 1 c . 1 UG J 1 '1 HIGHEST EMO-Of-dOMH DLOO 0 LAO OCC 'JRRI NG IN- 1930 BY AGS GROUP: l w ) " 2, Z *i. ( J -- ^.4 ( c i -- ~ . 7 '1-- < 3 ) = 14.1 < 4 J= 14.5 < 5 )= 15.0 ----- (-<- > a--- 1 t-y 7-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ :--------------- TEH 0414113 DUP050454368 G-'jLf-:--z-T+t >Tw 3T / u TM" LC 7 *3T AGE BLOOD PQ CQNC --1-98-a---PfrP- -YE-A-R---------- -------- =;------ --3------ A *# -6------ -7----8----9-t - -H--4-E-------------------- 6 64 1974 %j * ~ * 6 64 . 1976 ij H --1 J 7 7 6 64 . 1972 c (J ** i" I 7 1 7 6 64 . 1980 ; J U 17y* 5 82. 1976 * W 4. " y * r 5 62. 1972 L. L * ) j y 5 82. 153 0 4 49. 1977 t /. n 4070 $ 49. 1979 h ; 1 7 \m tot 52 -* <*< 4a4*2rw* 35 33 25 28 J> 27 26 25 24 24 23 27 27 26 27 25 2 6. 26 2a 25 24 25 25 . -r 'I' J " it -r w w 2 J' 1'Z'4"" Si 7 & J 3 24 N 22 22 22 21 22 22 22 23 22 22 22 23 w 'c J t W u n. w U & u u a 1 u 20 to, toO 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 ^ 1 ** 1 *.4. <to Sto I* * Z -* Wto. 18 IS IS 1 17 17 18 16 17 16 17 17 w J J"" Z to. i 4- V 1 lj ' 24 4i ** 2--i 2 21 21 2i 2 22 2f i*-r 2i--i 22 22 22 Lu Mw 22 22 / / 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 la 15 15 15 15 e A t* m V fi. r-.. ii W 4 4. 4 lj 17 17 17 18 16 17 17 17 16 15 16 16 r> / -7 / -7 / ..... L7-JT 1 -1 T U -4 -7-1 -i ^ 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 19 20 20 T^ -F T -* 1 J 1 J 1 toF 1 > l to 3 49. 1577 T * / * * #? 44 35 14 29 1f 27 * 24 c 24 A4 23 22 21 AC ZG 2G* 19 A .C -. AC 4 r 3 T 4 9# 1979 21 21 21 22 20 20 21 21 19 19 20 20 -T *7_____ ______a____ __3____ A * -4_i___j U____i____AT __AJ_________ 5__*1___________ 2 62 1973 i -2 i;7<7 62. 1980 * . n i 62. 15S0 41 1 ' 33 n f. 28 1 'i 24 6# 23 22 21 -7. A ... * r. 20 ^ f. 20 19 19 A t . .At 13 * T 15 15 15 16 14 15 15 15 14 13 14 14 L "1r /. id W A *' * 10 10 10 10 9 a r> 4 *? Al 9 9 10 9 9 A 99 } + 1 * 40 POPULATION -WEIGHT SB GEOMETRIC .IE AN CCNC . DURING 1979 = 18. 8 UG/01. to to to-# tot Nrf ( < 1 W -j- w ` . t ^-- ^ vt W 1 #* V % 1 U U/ M i 1 GEOME TRI C f'.EAti OF A?,.NUAL 4V G. CONCS . FOR THE 84 -MCNTn C OHTST ------------------5W-PNG--Y j'AfrS T-1-7-4--7 2-4-w 3--<*<--/ .JV-fr,,,-..,,,-............................. TEH 0414114 DUP050454369 A.1* O' J'JI*i M j V ...A i . 1 r* t~ 1 Vu * 1 1i iO ^01 1 1 HIGHEST ENO-QF-MOM'H PLOOO LEAD OCCURRING IM...1980 8T A3 E GROUP: vu)-- 2 j t "i j -- J L * I i O.j < 3 )= 14.7 ( 4 )= 15.1 ( 5 i~ 15.6 ----- (.. 6 4-5-r-Z--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !-------------- TEH DUP050454370 -rHr rhS4r- 1 ,-Z-^xi- -fc-ewi AGE BLOOD P8 CONC 444H---- fs-e-P-------------------- ----------- 1----Z----5--" ' "4" "--5----6----7----Sr--- y-.-va;'... 11-----*2--------------------- 111 6*,J 6 6 6, <*> 6 11. 17. 1] 11. i1 17. 1974 1976 1rt t 1978 Jyj 7 1 1980 54 43 37 33 31 29 27 27 28 2S 26 24 w <fa fa. l fa M 4 J r' L W * -- 44 23 27 28 22 27 27 27 23 27 29 28 2-7 4 H L * 4 ** 4 ^ 2 j 4 * 2 C " 26 22 2 7 4 6 23 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 27 25 24 4 1 4 1 4 1 4 4 U 1 Z L ' L J 2h 2Z 44 16 16 16 16 16 16 .15 16 17 18 76 15 4 1 7 - 5 22. 1976 i ^ * i y i1 i 5>* 22. 1978 4 4. ml 7 i 2V' ' ' 5 22. 1980 H 4 4 -* fa ,, J 4 w 4 V L 1 2 * cJ <. >. 1 9 18 19 19 18 IS 18 IS 19 20 19 IS i 4 4 v 4 f Z ? zo 2 U 26 2? 4 6 c 46 23 22 23 4 1 ' L. - 4 1 23 23 T3 23 l f" 4 '"" " 4 1 24 25 &w 2A 7. 4 2-- 3^ 4W 2-- 4 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 is 20 18 17 1 --33-.--t9-7-6--------- --------- 4-S-_5^_ M fab -26r- 4 r -r*- -Mr- 41 6 53* 1977 / * 1JIM 18 17 18 18 17 17 17 18 18 19 18 17 ....... 7 5 " * -> > *> / i .. -**T. -fa* JC -- f 4 ,M "4 33. 1979 20 20 21 20 20 21 20 21 22 24 23 22 / W 1 J o J .......--------- r--45--+6---hr--1-6---hr--f-y~-hi---Vf---hr--+S- 3 33. 1977 ? 7 ? - r. -y'? 46 36 31 26 26 25 23 23 24 25 23 21 ........... 1 7. 1 7- * 7 1 * 3 33. 1979 22 22 23 23 21 22 21 23 22 24 22 21 - 3-3-.-.... * i j ^ . . ...--------- 45--4-5--4-5---44---44--44--45--44---4?---44---4?----4s------------------- 2 18. 1978 -------------g---- I A3. >..... 7 ----- 2 18. 1S80 42 ---- ---4-j- 16 33 29 26 24 23 21 22 23 24 21 19 --HS---- 4->----4-----44------7-5----- 45----+6---- 4-5-- 16 1 6 16 75 16 15 16 77 IS 17 75 --- 1 1 1 f? 7*1. 18. 1980 -- -- - ~ T 4 *T 10 10 10 10 io 10 1C 11 11 12 11 10 h. 4 * .* -- i POPULATION- WEIGHT ED G B0KE Tit IC WEAN C 0NC DURING 1979 * 20. 8 UG/D1. i< iiV t GEOMETRIC F -At: 0 F ANNUAL AV 6 C0NCS . FOR THE 84 "MONTH COHORT -------------aiwiw...>s 44S.-1-9 7 A - 7 -7-7-- =--3-6-t T-W* 64--------- TEH 0414116 DUP050454371 AN 0 " D U KI N G V L A l\ -- 19 73 1 'f 3 v " 2 :I 3 by i C 1 ' HIGHEST END-OF-MONTH 5L00D LEAD OCCURRING IN. 19S0 SY AGE GROUP: ( u i -- * 3 L v - I -- 1E 3 C 1 L ' 3 = L 3 ( 3 3* 18.9 ( 4 J= 19.1 < 5 3* 19.5 ----------- ( ,6 )- T----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ;------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- TEH 0414117 DUP050454372 v Utf-5---- =~-it----------j-lTS"?--f-------------baTi'gr AGE 8L00D PS CONC -------- 1 9-3'j---W-.-Tf'ftR---------- -------- f-- z --3--t S------ - --fi------ 7 01 -M---"H---1-5-------------------- * 6 19. 1974 W J 1 7 l' J 6 1. 1976 k7 . ? < 7 6 19, 197a 0 r; 6 19 . 19SG j 20 * l 7 * J 5 23 1976 4. -< * 1 / * 5 23. 1973 bv * , i < J 5 23. I96 0 lw 4 16. A ' 16 . *V # 1977 1979 1 7W 3 16 . 1977 T .1 n t . v 3 16. 1979 _i_*______ . ?. n - 2 9 . 1978 7 n 1i 2 9. 19SQ ..................... 1 1 9 . 1980 * i ^ 52 A 1 35 32 29 27 26 25 25 23 23 23 1 TC ' IT "'1C" / 26 2 6 27 26 25 25 25 26 24 24 24 25 S 6 2 J 231 "" * 2 J 23 22 2 J 4. -n 21 21 22 il- 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 2 Wr <. w ""2 U" * Q 2 0 A. U 20 20 C2 i- >J 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 14 > - *1 w w 4 - 1 L U" i bW 2 4 . 4. ^ U 4. IS 13 is 18 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 1 CJ 2 - & w A. W 2 4 2 * 2'4 "" 'S'V" 23 Z 3 20 '24 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 2 c 22 22 22 22 k/ tt </ 2 w 'w 1 f --w 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 IS 15 15 15 15 A* 4 *. 6. * 4 A. '. r- ^L nu A 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 16 A fl n -y L -J -l ? - -F . 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 2C ]4 4 * M > ^ ] H 1 H" 1 4 1 4 ? H 0I 43 . tA 21 __________* /- 4 35 30 27 5A * 21 21 21 ___j .______ 2A 23 22 21 21 T C * c. f - ______20 20 20 2 u 19 j?/______ S_______*/___ 20 19 19 19 ____?./___ 19 4T 20 ./ "' " " 4 Q 32 2 S 25 23 22 21 20 19 19 18 18 1 f\ ........-] fy 1 11 *1 *7 .4 1........ -If /.... . .4 1. if T fT 15 1 5 15 15 1A 1 A 14 1 A 14 13 13 14 . n.-- * n * .f <5 . -v f -J wJ 9 "9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 4t 99 9 ?v 1* i 1* ' 1 . w POPULATION -WEIGHT E0 G50ME7R IC g e o me t r ic w wv- w rnc i v .4 i". OF A!' N U A L 4VG. MEAN CONC DURING 1979 =' 18. 9 UG/D1. v Wo V 1 1 0 -- i 1 u uJ/ w 1 C 0 ACS . FOR THE 4 -MONTH C OH ORT H-j-W-g-A ------------------- TEH 0414118 --- DUP050454373 -----A'.'tD ' SU-1V' ?A'fr 1 7Z 1"93 - '15 vs--c-Y-iH-------------------------------------------------HIGHEST c NO-OF-MONTH t=L00 D LEAD OCCURRING IN-..1923 BY AGE GROUP: --( j- ; g 22-, z--x--i--r=--fr-?--(..z~j ---rrn--------------------------------------------- C 3 )= 14.3 { 4 )= 14.5 t S 1 = 15.1 ---- ( .6. ) ---1-4^5------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ TEH 0414119 DUP050454374 gg-g a-j -j -j g" l . ua -- j i g a, jr^srsn-rs^v^ssg-vs a*apj"g"ac` -- ij a" 2 -- AGE BLOOD PB CGNC --ire-*- 1 T-Ot 3. --'Y-rftfi------------------- r~---- -a-- J -6------ j --a-- u '-l 2 -p.sMi~ar' . . aru-tr tarsi'.M'jfc a j j i / H-2---44-- * ^ 6 52. 1974 Jwi 6 52. 1576 * %m * 17 r 1 6 52. 1978 C r/* > 6 52. 1980 ^ f . VKr 33. 1976 UU i > n 5 33. 197S f 4 ** -* -i 5 33. 1980 4 4 1 14 j ] * 58. e 58. *L 1 ?tW 1977 . r*>c 1979 1 /w J X 58 * 1977 z g<: * * 7*5 ____3i___5g3^_._ 1979 * *' O 5 51 41 1S 35 . M 32 * 29 1J 23 .2.. 6* 24 .r 24 23 22 22 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 23 24 24 24 & & U Cm 4- C.M 2 J Z2 U J "20 2 J <m mt W 21 21 21 22 21 22 21 21 22 21 21 22 j 'y 1 i 7 1 J i > <m J 2'C i f u 19 1 ] y-- 15 14 15 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 4 'J W ** - J 4 2 "4 - 1 2't- '" 2i- 13 17 18 16 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 S. V cl -* 4 4** 4 4 .. 2^ ' 23 21 21 21 21 21 22 21 21 21 21 21 22 41 ->* t-.i. U . * 47, " 1 TT" .. IT "17 1 1 7 1 / 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 15,, '"<13 J c* W U l* km* t! <* " 6 *.-4a ..C"Vm 4. J 4. J ' 17 17 17 ">7 17 16 *hah-m* 17 16 16 ~Lt -n u 15 '15 15 -r 4 16 19 18 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 l "4 ' "" i ** 1* *H 1 74 " 43 35 29 27 24 24 22 2u 21 1_6 X-t Xt . ^ ... 15 4g ____21j-__2a 0 -_2_1__ 21___22_0Z__21___ 2C 19 19 j *i___j.___j._ 24 0A 19 IS 19 _____ 19 *g 19 4/ 2 59. 1973 -1 C (?S_ ... 0-7 ? i 59. 1980 41) ____ 32/r. 27 1 -4 25 1t - 23 U5 22 T 20 19 11 19 IS is . 14 7"* 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 e - --. ..... 1C-??- -t? *i i- ---"i-A--- ?^ -- 1? 4 . * c m * 1 59 . 1980 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 3 9 4 - W l POPULATION -WEIGHT ED GE0 = IRIC WE AN COMC . DURING 1979 = IS. 2 UG/D1, . * <4 VM I1/ Ul 1 w * U .<J - -- ! L " W W'l W M i +1--"'0 .--= i 7 *- MU7~T7T G E 04 T3IC MEAN OF A NNUU AV G . cones . FOR TH = 84 -MONTH COHORT ------&4J# I\G--Y- -ass v;-?< -4........ ? ti-e/-iH------------ TEH 0414120 -- DUP050454375 ------S--&LA* S' f-'"C --{-'Vj-'y--- 1 5% V CS /' Cl--------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHEST END-OF-HCMH 21.000 L.AO OCCURRING IN i960 BY AGE GROUP: i i j-- 9*7 ( b )* 'iij C 3 14.2 < 4 )= 14.6 < 5 )= 15.1 ---------p.6. ,Jsr...fAr7---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- :--------------- ^---------------------------- TEH 0414121 DUP050454376 1 e UL F * L u L-i U LUu 1 --w* j- AGE i i 1 6 23. 1974 tc * i 6 23 . 1976 \ w 4.3 1 7 i i ; 6 23. 1978 L 20 1 i 1/ * 6 23 . 19SQ 4 a 1 7 l - 5 57. 1976 >* 5 57. 19 78 5 57. 1980 ...... 1 BLOOD PB CONC z 3 fa fa 6 f 5 -9 7 < 1 . 1 fa. 58 47 38 35 30 30 27 25 26 24 23 25 L L fa w fa fa ' C w1" W 3 a 30 29 30 26 23 26 26 25 24 24 27 2 L CJ i_ ** 2 j 4H . -g " 2j ' fa 24 25 24 23 24 23 24 23 23 23 22 22 24 2 i Z 4 1 Z L... fa 2 4 1 ~mCC 21 2 1 22 23 ...2u~ 18 1 7 16 17 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 ii * j 1 4 0 fa fa. 7 fa 7 t- j 2w u 2 2 l *9 20 20 19 20 17 19 18 13 17 16 17 19 7 Z / 2 fafa fa fa i 1 4 * 2 J 2 A .3 24 ' u 25 2 4 2 3 24 22 23 22 25 23 22 22 34 4 4. w fa w 1 . * 4> fa 3v i. 18 13 17 17 16 17 16 16 16 15 15 17 , g'T*-""" i y re '"" J L *14!" '1 J' *1 ' ,* i 4 1# 5 0 Jj 4 u fa fa, A 21* -> 4 1977 * ^ -TO 20 20 19 19 17 18 1? 17 16 16 16 18 ' i > f 77 * r^ LJ n / nt - n- ! 4 21. 1979 22 22 21 21 20 21 20 2 0 21 19 '20 22 * ' ' 7 1 7 fa - 1 J "I'l 1 9. t v J 1 0 7 w 76 f 3 21 . 1977 ? n 3 ii. 1979 7 -? * 4 no n 52 4 1 33 30 25 26 23 -------f 7 -- 1 * 1 * 4 * * 25 24 23 24 21 22 21 _____ i_2___ *-?- _i-A___ __ ___ 3.JL.___u_ 2 1 22 20 4 .. 4 C 4 C 21 21 19 4 __ 4_g __j __ 20 21 ? 19 21 4_t_________ . 2 29* 1978 n ? rt..... 4 n n 2 39. 198 0 I 1 39. 1980 48 35 30 25 24 24 21 20 2}1 18 18 20 1 ** .. 14. . 1_& * 2 4 7 .... 4.7. . 4 t 4 7 * i 4 ? 1 9 13 17 18 15 16 15 15 15 14 14 16 n7 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 13 * 1 fa ! POPULATION -WEIGHTED GEOMETRIC PE AN C0NC. Wl W GEOciS TRIC f*.HAN OF ANNUAL AVG. COf.CS FOR -------------W* EARS--1-9-? 4-1 f'?7 ---3 5 i ?-lxg-/ "5m t DURING 1979 = 20. 0 UG/D1. rri yc~ t n--(- u --** 4. L J U<J * U 1 * THE 84-MONTH COHORT TEH 0414122 DUP050454377 ----**rb--frfrS'i , ; -Y Z'A = 1 a'/'a1--f9f--* "K'-y -trgvfri----------------------------------------- HIGHEST END-OF-MONTH cL00D LEAD OCCURRING .IM 198C SY AGS GROUP: C i J' = 2 1.1 ^ j - 1 i h ii.l-- iij? ( 3 i- 17.4 ( 4 >= 17.a ( 5 )= 18.2 ------ ( ^ 1'?v9--------------------------------------------------:-------------------------------------------------------- -r-------------------- ------------------------- ----------------------------------- i -TEH 414123 DUP050454378 ; AGE I t L .j y r f c BLOOD PS CQNC 1 2 3 ** * 6 i 6 V 1 J 7 7 1 w 6 69. 1974 . 52 42 36 32 29 29 26 25 25 24 23 23 6-------- 6-9-s------H-35------------------- 33 33--35 3=--*9-----36----- *9 *------*8------*8---- *9 6 69. 1976 27 27 27 27 25 27 25 25 25 24 24 25 5--------t9n-----t-tf-f----------------- 23 35--23 32 ZZ-----3*---- 23 33 34----- 33----- 34----3* 6 69. 1978 22 22 22 22 22 23 22 22 22 22 22 23 -t--------(r9-i----- Wf----------------- 39--35--35--35--35-----3-1---- 35--3o--33----- 33----- 33----r+ 6 69. 1980 15 15 15 15 15 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 5---------Hr-.---W5-------------------- H-- 4-1--56------ 31 39-----3=----- 35-----34----- 35----- 35 35----35- 5 39. 1976 IS 18 18 IS 17 18 17 17 17 16 17 17 5 """ y 1 rj-? ?TM........... 2 j 2 u 26' 2'U""24 26 24 2*. 24 _'-33"""'Z3----34- 5 39. 1978 22 22 22 22 22 23 22 22 22 22 22 23 5---------33s---HrH--------------------35-- 35--35----- 35--39-----31----- 15------Yi-----35----- 35 33----33 5 39. 198 Q 15 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 4----- 4-9-s------39-76------------------ 45----Ht---5-----35----36-----3-6------23-----35----33-----39-----35---- 33 4 47. 1977 17 17 18 17 16 17 16 16 16 16 16 17 4------1*,--------------------------------34---- 34--34----- 34---- 33-----34--33--33-----33-----33-----33----- 33 4 47. 1979 19 19 20 19 19 20 ' T9 19 20 19 20 20 4--------43s----- *933------------------*3-----H-----*5----- *5---- *5-----1-5----- H-----*4----- *5----- *5---- *5---- Hr x 3 i--_________________ 47 . T 47. 7 * 1977 * r* ^ * 1979 4 * O 44 36 31 27 25 25 22 1 V *' 4 . T -> 1 L i J 21 21 22 22 20 21 20 _________.____a_*_________________2_L_______L-___a_s___ 21 21 . 9 i- * tr 20 19 ____ 20 20 *e 19 19 4.J. - 9 /_ TW nJ 20 * g_____ _ . 2 39. 1975 * . 1 n ?r- - 41 33 29 25 23 23 20 19 20 19 IS 18 1 'i 1 s *? 4T 13 4 A 2 39. 198 0 15 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 1 39. 1980 10 10 10 1-2 9 10 4 -T 99 -4. . .... 99 4 9 9 r J i 4 " "'l ^ i 11 V POPULATION -WEIGHTED G SOM E TR I C 4< IV ^ U * , Olt La .v'i i. i (t G E C?15 T SI C Ns AN OF AN N UAL AV S * - - - -s u r------------------------- i n g -y--=-* ,IS-' 1-9 -r 4- 7 - -a-- MEAN c o n 'c . DURING 1979 '= 19. 1 UG/01. 1 . a r\ . t 1 4i. j i r ' <v - i _* W U V l C0NCS . FOR THE 74 -MOfc Trt COHORT flT------------------ TEH 0414124 DUP050454379 ----- ftK 0- &1J frl ?:-S' TZ--f~OQ'tt' \------------------------------------------------------ HIGHEST EN&-OF-MONTH SLOOO LEJSQ OCCURRING I-N 198C 8Y G GROUP: ( j - ^5' ic>=*i5 < 3 >= -----(-- 14.9 ( 4 )= 15.3 ( 5 )= 15.8 - 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ ------------------------------------ ----------=--------------------------------- TEH 0414125 DUP050454380 CULT | AGE 1 LJ / L t i1 j L * J L w tr u j w4 ... S LOOD PD CO NC T i. l -g 3 -Sj 6(6 1w 14 i 6 233 . 1974 "4 1 ? i'J 6 233. 1976 ' 4 444 6 233. 1978 6 4 U , j / / 7 1 1 6 233. 1980 t > i To * 1 >* 4 5 1 76 * 1976 11 <j 1 *r < i C 176 . 1978 1 i g i /1 / 5 176. 198C * - ... / 4 ' .A 175. A *7 C 175 . fw 1977 A flllO 1979 I *u - 51 41 35 31 29 27 26 24 25 24 24 22 1 J ., i| t ' ' 4. 4 4 W 4 J TJ 26 26 27 26 25 25 25 25 2A 24 25 24 2 tm 2 - 4 4 4 4 44 .... ^ .j 4 3 2 ^ ga 2** 21 21 22 21 22 21 22 21 22 22 22 22 " 9 6 U k 9 L -J l * "Z cM 4U 20 1 22 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 u 14 14 14 14 h i J U -- V 4 / 4 4 2j 2 4 1 1 ' 4 1 ' 4J 17 17 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 16 17 2 j L 4 4 4 2j 24 2 4 2 Um 2 *9 23 2- 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 il 22 22 l r i 7 i / ?"j" 1 ^ 4W 4W 4 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 15 15 15 15 4 W* 0".....4 * -4i -4r* 4 4. 1 4J 17 17 17 17 w. T 16 tfii 16 n -i 16 -Ut 4 16 ba 4* 16 16 16 -i 16 ** -- 18 1 9' 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 19 1T 1" 11H ' 1 j4 o 3 775 . 1977 T " 1 5 175. 1979 r^O *T 35 3C 27 25 23 22 2 . 21 2C 20 19 16 -....1 c__ . e . c . e- ^ r 20 21 21 j ^ ...Z' . 1 vi 20 .> 20 20 2G 20 19 19 . .. 7 . a r 19 -7 19 Af 2 198 . 1978 -f y r i 198 . 158 0 39 33 28 25 23 21 20 1 V 19 19 19 12 .... ^ ' 1 /i 1' . - /r _ A ? A T A *7 At T 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 . ^7-r i 198 . 1980 -T t- "1 1 9 10 1C f . 4-rnJ . 17 .. . u . -y 59 999 9 i0 99 9 ------- J4 i t r. 1 ! POPULATION -WEIGHT SO GEOMSTSIC MS AN CCNC . 1DURING 1979 == 18. 3 UG/01. * V. W . ,, 4 1 Of u / w 1 4 GEO*cTaiC P^S At! Of A`JNUAL AVG. CONCS . FOR THE 84 -ftONTh COHORT '-------------&Uft i-NS.. * AS-3 I ?-?* .1 3". g-UCAtH---------- TEH 0414126 -- DUP050454381 T --iwttt-stmr:31 frXii i--t .*' tfrrg.. ;1-------------------------------------------- HIGHEST c.lC-OF-.MOMH FLOOD LEAD OCCURRING Ml 19?C 9Y AGE GROUP: q j-2 2 c. ^ { I rs 7TS ( t 7~z 15 . w C 3 3- 14.4 < 4 3 = 14.7 C 5 3= 15.3 ----- 1.,6 .. u . ?---------------------- !-------------------------------------------------------------- ------ TEH 0414127 __ DUP050454382 ----------------- gb-ttry**'-'!1--T A" FC A----OO^Kr^-T";---------------------- GULF2 20/L - BUST 1,2/U (1974 - 1980) TABLE 1. CrCtteT F -tGW B 1 ShStfN P" C STfW'jrTE^-Q-P-c Ha -frf--ttftH-T-ft BLOOD' LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR ALL 34-MONTH COHORTS(A) me 2 n g l o o d l e 2 d c o n c e n t r 2 t io n s c u g /d l ) 'Ht A-S---------------- !--------- 2-------- 3--------- 4-------- 5--`--6----------7--------- 6--------- 9------- 1-3------ 1-1------- vrfa-------------- 5-1-------------55"-------32 1 5'S-------ti--------23-------25-------35-------25------- 55------25 1975 19 2t: 20 20 19 19 19 19 13 18 18 19 -4-925-------------- 25---- 25---------25------- 26--------25------ 2-5-------25--------25-------24-------24------- 24------25 1977 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 Wfl--------------25---- 25-------- 22------ 22------- 22------ 22------ 22------- 22------ 22------ 22------- 22----- zrt 1979 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 1755---------------15---- 1 '3------- 1j-------- 15-------- 55------- 15------ 14'-------- 14------- 55------- 15--------15------ 15- TA9LE 2. a-5We TH-ft-5: t A 53--O'f~Wffgfr '"'S'C O' N & E S T1 fi A1 '755-0 f"AN HU A t...A V ft'AG S' BLOOD LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR ALL 84 -MONTH- JTOHOST S ( *A J MEAN BLOOD LEAD 2-cAR---------- & Ctf*6-KT R-A-T-HHf-H1W L-> 1974 59-T5- 1976 49-Z-7- 1978 4-SJJ?,. 1930 30.1 25.2 -33. 21.8 19."8 14.3 1974 - 1 977 24.3 197S..- I'^-g-------------- M-^6- TEH..0414128 DUP050454383 -----------------pA'T-ff--p-S-x--ir* - rCTTH--C 0'M"0"S"T"S--------------------- 1------------- GULF2 3U/L - DUST 1,2/U (1-974 - 198 jJ -------- TAOtx "3 .. STUDY..A R A ------------ END-QF-MONTH BLOOD' LEAD CONCENTRATION BY COHORT AGE "I 1.................. ............................................. ............... ....... ,...... t.t I COHORT CALENDAR I BLOOD LEAD f )* +1 i 2 g 'c 'Ct ran5T i----rEws--------- j-------- c o 'n c e n ' 2 u n (u ^/'d l j i i---------- g--------- j----------------------1--- L.--------------5-frri------------------ f- I 1 t 1975 I 20.0 I 1----------z--------1--------rrra--------1----------------rsvs--:-------------r I 3l 1977 t 23.3 [ i----------------- 4------------- i-------------- W-c-------------- i--------------------------- g-2-rt------------------------------ 1- I 5I 1979 I 20.4 f t-----------e-------- S---------Wirt---------1----------------- S-TT3------------------- f- ------------TABLE 4.--S"Tftf)-*~Arft SA--frgA-NS <i ) Of SL OOa 1 LSAS-------:-- 1 * " mm INDICATORS(CJ BY COHORT AGE mm mm mmm m-mm mmrw'wrm mmm mmmm i I COHORT t CALENDAR I BLOOD LEAD INDICATOR l ). AS eifTsfi3)-|---------refts-s--------1--c-sw c e n t e2 t row c u s /o l j 1 I----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 -1------- 9-3------- I--4W-------h?-?-?- |----------------3v t 5--------------------- h I 4-6 I 1978 - 1980 l 19.2 1 JLOWW.T44-N-WSI Ha&-&gO.-4=-T-S-g...-C AN C ON C IN TP A T-ICH IN 36 TH MONTH OF LIFE 24.5 UG/DL. F'COTNCTu Si------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (A) SEVEN YEAR (84-MONTH) COHOSTS ARE BORN JANUARY 1 OF THE --------- FIRST" 'Y'It i'R--N-D--5'X'P-ES'I C '-~7-- F UL't"' Yc"A R'S" ( ii* " NOVT-rt a 3--------------------OF EXPOSURE PRIOR TO THEIR 7TH BIRTHDAY. (.g.i-TAB-fa l .1.-4. y..C A S S'--.4 > ; PCP'ULAT'SON-W'gflG'HTSO GS'frPETiV: C MEANS--------- OF A BLOOD LEAD INDICATOR FOR THE SEVEN-YEAR COHuPT IN EACH --------- C IH S'liS --TR ACT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- <C) TABLE 4 BLOOD LSAC INOICATCR FOR ThE SEVEN-YEAR COHORT IN ------- OWE -e-EfrS-US' T S ACT I"5"'"T He " ASt TH.wS TK--re-AN-frF--WJ-O'WS-a-T--5'N-&-Of MONTH SLCOO CONCENTRATION DURING EACH YEAR IN A SERIES OF ....----- IA 2 3 ............. ...... ......... ' - --- ........ ... S A S3 j A SAS 0*GULF2-30. FAC' WAS'HT'N'G-------------l-rS-YtrSj .j"trjtr USE ?,SASD*GULF2-c:I TEH 0414129 DUP050454384