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Study on R&l opportunities to
strengthen EU clean energy security
now and looking to 2050
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Overview of presentation
Study objectives and approach Task 1: Scenario development Task 2: Energy security assessment of clean energy
value chains Task 3: Developing and R&I action plan to
strengthen energy security Task 4: Validation workshop Results: R&I action plan
2
Studyy objobjectives
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European clean energy technology value
chains now and looking to 2030 and 2050
+ Identify research and innovation
opportunities and challenges for clean energy technology value chains to
maintain, boost or mitigate risks to European
energy security
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10 years
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Study scope
Energy security "The uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price" (International Energy Agency) which for clean energy technologies includes more than the source of energy but the whole value chain.
Clean energy technologies in scope:
Advanced Biofuels, Bioenergy, Concentrated Solar Energy, Geothermal Energy,
Hydropower, Ocean Energy, Photovoltaics, Wind Energy, Renewable and Solar Fuels,
Carbon capture Utilisation and Storage, Electricity and Heat Storage, including Batteries,
Hydrogen and Intermediate Energy Carriers, Heat Pumps, Smart Energy Grid
Technologies, Energy Building and District Technologies, Off-Grid Energy Systems, Energy
OTraunt osmf siscsoiopneand Distribution Technologies, Smart Cities.
Physical impact/vulnerabilities of individual clean energy technology facilities to
natural events and malicious threats (noting that climate adaptation and
cybersecurity is in scope)
Nuclear power
R&I interventions outside of the influence of/implementation by the European
4
Commission
Study conceptualisation and operationalisation
Task 1: methodology development and scenarios Task 2: assessment of energy security of technology value chains Task 3: development of the R&I action plan Task 4: validation workshop
5
Study assumptions
Value chains are considered more secure if they are located in the EU.
EU policy trends and decarbonisation ambitions are maintained or increase.
Energy needed to deploy clean energy technologies is also clean
This is Engineering
Study limitations
Energy security is a system characteristic, however this study is focused at the value chain level.
The technology categories are broad and analysis may not be applicable to all value chains in the technology category.
The granularity of assessment is at the level of the main value chain elements (e.g. `advanced electronics' and not the type of chip) and the main aspects of the energy security indicators (e.g. `biodiversity risks' not particular species)
The energy security assessment should be considered a mapping exercise of main risks, not a detailed technological assessment of value chains.
This is Engineering
Task 1: Scenarios development
Aims
Identify key frends, drivers of change and uncertainty that may affect EU
energy security of clean energy technology value chains
Develop scenario narratives for use throughout the study, bringing in wider
socio-economic and geopolitical context into the technical assessment of
clean energy value chains
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+ Complement the scenario narratives with modelling of the energy technology
market, EU import dependencies and R&D investment.
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Scenarios for future EU energy security
`A scenario is a generally intelligible description of a possible situation in
the future, based on a complex network of influence factors. (Gausemeier et al, 1998)
Purpose of the scenarios
=> Process to explore how political, social, economic, environmental, technological and
legislative frends may influence EU clean energy security. = Three plausible future scenarios that provide challenge to future EU clean energy security.
SPcroMcIesSscenarios Development
Identify your
system
hii
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Identity
projections
Develop
narratives
witchocmoprleesmpeonndtiendg menaecrrgoyescyosntoemmsic and
(GEM-E3) modeling
PESTLE findings and drivers of change
PESTLE analysis takes into account relevant political, economic, social, technological, legislative and environmental trends identified in the literature and expert interviews.
Political
Economic
Social
Technological Legislative
Environmental
Conflict
Future
Public
Circular
EU
Critical
and
economic
perception
economy
legislation
materials
geopolitica
environme
s (energy Emerging Critical
Climate
l
nt
security,
technologi
Raw
change
uncertainty Global
clean
es
Materials Environmen
EU member
trade
energy
Increasing
Act
tal impact
states'
Global
technologi
digitalisatio Circular
of clean
policies
energy
es, climate
n
Economy
energy
Industrial
market and
change) Clean
Action Plan
technologi
policy and
investment EU skills and
energy
Internation
es
globalisatio Cost of
workforce
technology
al
n
energy
Just
innovation
legislation
Internation
transition Semicondu
al relations
Demograp
ctors
Politics of
hic trends Low-
the global
and
carbon
clean
mobility
transport
energy
transition
transition
10
Scenarios for future EU energy security
Scenarios are not predictions.
The scenarios present a plausible future with challengefos EU energy security fo provide a
`mechanism and future context for siress-testing of the energy security of clean energy technology value chains. The scenarios do not define the future energy mix.
Scenario 1 The EU decarbonises
alone, amidst global
challenges
Scenari2o Adigital EU meets Net
Zero with global |
collaboration
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Task 1 outcomes: Scenarios RAG rating overview
Energy security indicator
The EU's pursuit of Net Zero amidst global challenges
2030
2050
A digital EU meets Net Zero with global collaboration
2030
2050
Global conflict overshadows decabonisation priorities
2030
2050
Geopolitical availability (CRM)
Abundance (CRM)
Circularity
Supply chain complexity
Supply chain location
Digital vulnerability
Physical vulnerability
Broader sustainability
Affordability
Skills 12
GEM-E3 model
SEM-iEs3a recursive dynamic large scale applied CGEmodelthat covers the wi
orid linked throughendogenous bilateral trade transactions.
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+ Public R&Dhas uniform costimplications globally.
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> Use in this study + Estimate fhe market size in different scenarios (global and EU) ++ IEnsdtiicmaattee fRh&eDdeexppeennddietnucreesofforEUEUonpotiemnptoiratleddetveeclhonpolmoegnitesof domestic
capacity
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GEM-E3 model
Overview of the results from the GEM-E3 model - Global market size & EU clean energy production
The demand for clean energy technologies peaks in scenario 2 (~69 trillion USD - cumulative over the period 2020-2050). A concerted action towards GHG emission reduction provides a steady signal to investors that accelerate investments and R&D expenditures.
EU achieves its highest average market share in scenario 3B (high EU ambition) , reaching 28%. For EU, scenario 3B (high EU ambition) stands out in terms of clean energy production, significant impact that trade policies can
have on the EU's domestic clean energy production levels, highlighting the importance of trade dynamics in shaping the outcomes of the clean energy sector. The dominant technology in terms of market size across all scenarios is electric vehicles
14
GEM-E3 model
Overview of the results from the GEM-E3 model - Clean energy technologies market shares
In scenarios 3 and 3B (high EU ambition) , where trade restrictions are implemented, the EU experiences an increase in market shares for PV equipment and batteries
Scenario 3B (high EU ambition) , EU have highest market share compared to other scenarios. This is attributed to the EU's ambitious climate targets and a strategic emphasis on self-sufficiency in clean energy technologies, contributing to its leading market position.
Scenario 2 exhibits the lowest market share for the EU, driven by the global effort to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, resulting in a substantial increase in clean energy production in non-EU countries and diminishing the EU's relative market share.
15
GEM-E3 model
Overview of the results from the GEM-E3 model - EU dependency on imports by location
Scenarios 3 and 3B (high EU ambition) , there is a low dependency on imports In scenario 1 and 2, PV equipment is primarily imported from China, showcasing a concentrated import dependency The import dependency for batteries is more diversified, with imports sourced from various countries
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Task 2: Energy security assessment of clean energy
value chains
Aims.
+ Assess potential energy security risks in a harmonised way across all
technology value chains in scope + Using a broad, comprehensive understanding of energy security, including both technical and non-technical aspects + Assessing the risk levels relative to other value chains
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Develop a list of key criticalities for energy security of clean energy
technology value chains, to serve as a basis for the identification of R&I
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Energy security assessment of clean energy value
chains
RCA
Identification of representative value chains for each technology category 1-4 value chains per technology. 48 value chains otal
Definition of a comprehensive setofrelevant energy security indicators BCFA 10 energy security indicators
BCEEN
Assessment of energy security indicators for each value chain + Harmonised approach for each energy security indicator
Relative energy security risk scored: 1 = low risk, 2 = moderate, 3 = high
SICEES]
Long-list of energy security crificalities for 2030 and 2050 + Atthe value chain level
+ Making useofthe scenarios as a stress test for the indicators over time
.
BUCER
Short-list of key energy security crificalifies + Atthe technology category level
+ Based on multicriteria analysis including number of scenarios through which the criticality was shortlisted, development in time, expected scale,
comparison across technologies, etc.
validation by workshop participants.
Energy security assessment of clean energy value chains
List of energy technology value chains
Wind energy (4) Wind turbine - onshore Wind turbine - offshore Airborne wind system Downwind rotor
Hydropower (1) Hydropower plant for electricity
generation
Photovoltaics (4) Silicon-based PV Copper indium gallium selenide
PV Cadmium Telluride PV Perovskite cells Geothermal energy (1) Geothermal plant for heat and
electricity generation
Smart energy grid tech (3) EV smart charging Advanced meter infrastructure Home energy management
systems
Energy building and district tech (3) Advanced control technologies Thermal energy storage Combined heat and power
Bioenergy (2) Primary crop-based
and forest-based bioenergy
Other energy storage (2) Compressed air
storage RFNF BOs (1) Synthetic kerosene
CCUS (1) Carbon capture and
storage infrastructure
Heat pumps (2) Industrial heat pumps Domestic heat pumps
Smart city (1) Autonomous driving
Off-grid energy (3) Biogas tank Pellet stove Thermal collector
Direct solar fuels (2) Photochemical or
photobiological routes thermochemical routes
Advanced Biofuels (3) Algae-based advanced biofuels Primary crop-based advanced biofuels Waste-based advanced biofuels
Batteries (4) Batteries containing several critical raw
materials Batteries without critical raw materials Redox flow batteries Molten salt batteries
Ocean energy (4) Tidal energy technologies Wave energy technologies Ocean thermal energy conversion Salinity gradient energy technology
Concentrated solar energy (1) Concentrated solar energy plant for
heat and electricity generation
Hydrogen (4) Alkalyne electrolysis Polymer exchange membrane
electrolysis Solid oxide electrolysis
Energy transmission and distribution tech (2) Hydrogen storage and distribution High voltage direct current transmission
Energy security assessment of clean energy value chains
Energy security indicators The energy security assessment of each value chain was carried out with ten energy security indicators. Each indicator was assigned a score from 1-3 (1: low risk, 3: high risk) for the intrinsic risk carried by the technology value chain.
List of energy security indicators 1. Geopolitical availability of Critical Raw Materials 2. Abundance of Critical Raw Materials or biomass 3. Circularity 4. Supply chain complexity 5. Supply chain location 6. Digital vulnerability 7. Physical vulnerability 8. Broader sustainability 9. Affordability 10. Skills
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Energy security assessment of clean energy value chains
Stress-testing future energy security with the scenarios to compile the long-list Each energy security indicator was given a Red-Amber-Green rating for 2030 and 2050 based on how much the energy security indicator would be stressed compared to now. For example, a scenario with rapid decarbonisation would stress the skills indicator to amber or red depending on the pace of decarbonisation. The RAG rating was used to provide a futures element to the energy security assessment, determining which elements of the value chains should be included on the long list of criticalities based on the matrix below.
Scenario RAG
Energy
rating
security indicator
score
1
Green
Not included on the long-list
Amber
Not included on the long-list
Red
For discussion to include on the longlist
Not included on the For discussion to
2
long-list
include on the long- Long-listed
list
3
Long-listed
Long-listed
Long-listed
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Energy security assessment of clean energy value chains
Going from the long-list to the shortlist of key energy security criticalities
Qualitative assessment based on expert judgement for the following criteria
Number of scenarios triggering the longlisting of the criticality (1-3)
Development over time (2030, 2050, both). Risking delay or disruption?
Consideration of the nature of the criticality. E.g. single risk or accumulation of various risks in the same category?
Expected scale of the technology and role in the energy system
Comparison across technologies (harmonisation of repeat criticalities) Critical Raw Materials-related criticalities were automatically included in the shortlist All technologies that rely on large amounts of renewable electricity for production or operation, the vulnerability of the electric grid was considered key.
22
Energy security assessment of clean energy value chains
Key results of energy security assessment (1/2)
Geopolitical availability and abundance of Critical Raw Materials (CRM), digital vulnerability and skills came out as key energy security risks In several cases, digital vulnerability and skills were originally not shortlisted but validation workshop participants viewed them as important risks
Risks identified in supply chain location & complexity, as well as broader sustainability, often were related to CRMs
For the majority of technologies, the listed CRMs are "generic" ones, like Copper and Aluminium. Therefore, the related supply risks should be considered as a systemic vulnerability instead of related to specific value chains
23
Energy security assessment of clean energy value chains
Key results of energy security assessment (2/2)
In addition to advanced electronics for "smart" technologies, validation workshop participants pointed at the importance of "standard", low technology electronics as well
Digital vulnerabilities were mainly identified for "smart" technologies and technologies where cyberattacks may cause significant physical damage. Workshop participants added to this the vulnerabilities arising from interconnectivity among several devices (which is a systemic vulnerability)
For skills, it was noted that there is a general shortage of installation skills, arising from competition among clean energy technologies. On the other hand, the current situation does not necessarily pre-empt skills availability in the long term
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Task 3: Developing a R&I action plan to strengthen energy security
Aims
+ Define R&I challenges fo address the key energy security criticalities
+ Assess what relevant R&l is already taking place in the EU and the EU's ability to address the R&I challenges (R&I ecosystem strength and
weaknesses, external threats and opportunities)
ky HE Link + Develop feasible, impactful and futureproofed Ral interventions fo include
gw inan action plan (fo be delivered by 2030)
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Developing a R&I action plan to strengthen energy security
Ral landscape analysis
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+ Identification of opportunities to address more than one criticality with one R&I
intervention.
+ Considerations for successful implementation including future trends or opportunities for
early action that is required across more than one future scenario.
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Task 4: Validation workshop
AiVmaslidate the methodology and findings so far, in particular on energy security criicalifies.
Refine the R&I action plan with consideration of feasibility, potential impact and futureproofing.
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Workshop structure and participation
Morning session (9:30-12:00 CET) - study methodology and activities to validate the energy security assessment of clean energy value chains.
Afternoon session (13:30-17:00 CET) - activities refining and validating R&I interventions.
50 participants total, 41 online, from research organisations (12%), academia (18%), trade bodies (26%) or think tanks (4%), industry (16%, nominated by ETIPs), and the European Commission were also present (24%, from DG RTD, DG ENER and JRC).
Participants brought expertise in 16 technologies and expertise on CRM, sustainability, international trade, energy policy and climate adaptation.
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Activity 1
Objective of the activity: Validate and feedback on the shortiist of key energy security criticalities 3 Discussion to assess the severity/priorifisation of key energy security criicalifies > Discussion of possible future scenarios and implications for energy security
crificalities
Risk-Preparedness Matrix
In groups, participants
EU Preparedness:
Howready and equippedis the
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otchicsurirskeidf i?t
_-- Level of risk: how likely and impactful is the criticality for EU energy security?
placed a
selection of criticaliies on
the matrix and
discussed any
gaps, nuance, key
considerations
.
Activity 2
Objectiveofthe activity: + Develop and refine R&! interventions to address the energy security criticalities
> Discussion to assess whether R&l interventions are the most effective approach
= Discussion of impact, feasibility and futureproofing for R&! interventions:
Feasibility
Lowfeasibity
Low impact
_--ms$m------------------ Potential impact
In groups,
participants placed a selection of
R&I
interventions
on the matrix
and discussed what would be better
alternatives
Validation workshop: outcomes
Input from participants was collated into a workshop summary, included in the final study report. Mural board from Break Out Group 1 with participant input
Participants identified criticalities that weren't shortlisted across technologies, and alternative or missing R&I actions. The workshop input fed directly into the finalised set of key criticalities, R&I challenges and informed the selection of R&I actions included in
the action plan.
33
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Results: R&I action plan
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Defining R&I interventions: types of intervention
R&I intervention
Relevance
Collaborative industry R&I programmes
- medium to high TRL - develop technology towards commercialisation, support to initial new supply chains and skills in industry and academia
Research programmes - low TRL - resolve uncertainty, increase understanding, proof of concept
Missions
- signal strategic interest and demand for solutions - multidisciplinary challenge and/or market failure
Support for start-ups and scale-ups
- enable new innovative companies to develop innovative products and commercialise
Networks for knowledge exchange and community building
Regulation and standards
International collaboration
Public procurement
- ecosystem support to build connections, collaborations, shared knowledge and engagement with policymakers and regulators
- driver for innovation setting out desirable outcome/certainty - shared challenges and complementary strengths/weaknesses - create and support demand for innovation
Incentives and support - create and support demand for innovation and deployment
for innovation
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R&I action plan: Priority group 1 (W-T)
Supply chain location & complexity
Batteries
Horizon Europe programme focused on improving the energy efficiency
of battery manufacturing and recycling.
PV
A Horizon Europe collaborative industry programme to support initial new supply chains focused on increasing the efficiency of solar
photovoltaic manufacturing processes in the EU.
Hydrogen
Horizon programme with an open call for solutions to increase the resilience of hydrogen value chains.
CRM abundance & availability
Energy Transmission & Distribution
R&I programme to increase recycling and re-use in energy transmission and distribution and develop the
sustainable production of aluminium and other alternatives.
Geothermal Energy
Open Horizon Europe call with the aim of implementing a "design to
recycling" scheme, including reducing and reusing critical raw materials in geothermal energy.
Smart Cities; Buildings & District Tech; Grids
R&I programmes to increase circular economy processes, recycling and re-use of electronics for smart energy technologies.
CRM
Research and public engagement on mining of critical raw materials.
Other Energy Storage (CAES) Research programme with the aim to develop a better understanding of
the potential locations for underground CAES.
Sustainability & other environmental impacts
Smart grids
Ongoing R&I programmes to address cybersecurity risks, ensuring
cybersecurity can be maintained for legacy systems and understanding of
the evolution of threats informs regulation and standards.
Digital vulnerability 36
R&I action plan: remaining 21 actions
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R&I action plan: additional actions
Discovery research programmes Four technology groups had no currently known solution for the question "how can the
use of critical raw materials be reduced?" A discovery research programme is proposed this carries high risk and is likely to take
a number of years before a solution is developed to application not included in the action plan due to uncertainty of their potential impact. Relevant technology groups: Other storage (flywheels & CAES); Off-grid energy tech; Solar fuels; Smart energy grid technologies, smart cities, energy building and district technologies, energy transmission and distribution.
Energy systems An additional action is proposed, to address the common criticalities and start to
address the interconnectedness of the energy system and co-dependencies of different technologies. Action: Mission for the future resilient and secure EU clean energy system, to address skills questions, critical raw materials needs for energy technologies, cybersecurity and other challenges such as permitting or management of the smart distributed energy 39