Document NeznaqXX8VV8Jaxm5gy0nNrnb

MCP-6 mineral commodity profiles PLAINTIFF'S EXHIBIT ASBESTOS-1977 BUREAU OF MINES UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SEPTEMBER 1977 CTD007132 ASBESTOS MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES MCP-6, September 1977 This current report on asbestos has been prepared by the Bureau ot Mines, U.S. Department ol the Interior to: 1. Provide the latest available data and information on asbestos. 2. Invite comment, revisions, or additional inlormation on the subject. Please direct communications to the author: Robert A. Clifton Bureau of Mines 2401 E. St. NW. Washington, D.C. 20241 Telephone number (202) 634-1206 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTEROR A single copy of this publication is available without charge from: Publications Distribution Branch, Bureau of Mines, 4800 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, Pa. 15213 CTD007133 This publication has been cataloged as follows: Clifton, Robert A. Asbestos-1977/by Robert A. Clifton. [Washington]: U.S. Dept, of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, 1977. 17 p.; diagrams: 27 cm. (Mineral Commodity Profiles; 6) Bibliography: p. I. Asbestos. 2. Asbestos industry. I. United Slates. Bureau of Mines. II. Title, ill. Series. TNI.A2 U5 no. 6 622.06173 cm#"* ASBESTOS By Robert A. Clifton' The United Slates may no longer be the world's largest consumer of asbestos, since the U.S.S.R. probably consumes as much or more (figure 4). The domestic construction industry presently uses the majority of asbestos fibers in products such as asbestos-cement pipe and sheet, roofing products, flooring products, paints, and caulking, and should remain the largest user. U.S. mines produced 17 percent of our consumption needs in 1976. Canada is the leading supplier of asbestos imports (about 95 percent), with the Republic of South Africa second. South Africa supplies all of the U.S. demand for crocidolite and amosite, and the majority of imports from there are these fibers. The rate of growth in the use of asbestos continues higher in the developing countries. Asbestos reserves could well be in danger of depletion by the year 2000, at the forecast rates of consumption, if the "find" rate of new sources does not increase. Canada could remain the world's leading producer, in spite of the rise of production in the U.S.S.R., as activity in exploration, evalua tion, and development of asbestos deposits remains high. U.S. demand shows some signs of abatement; however, this decline may be attributed to the temporary effects of the economic recession. There are several new inorganic fibers available, but they pose no present serious threat to the major asbestos markets. The present, and possibly chronic, world shortage, coupled with a growing de mand-reserve ratio, suggest the need for re search to find adequate substitutes. The health hazards associated with asbestos are undergoing close scrutiny by the Federal and local governments, unions, industry orga nizations, and concerned environmentalists. Al though prolonged controversy seems probable, efforts to minimize the hazard may permit the continuance of important uses of asbestos in the economy. 1 Physical scientist. Dnmon ol Nonmetallic Minerals INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Canada, with major activity in the Province of Quebec, leads the world in both total quan tity produced and the size of individual mines and mills. The U.S.S.R. is also a major world asbestos producer. The Republic of South Af rica, the People's Republic of China, Italy, and the United States mine substantial tonnages and, in combination with Canada and the U.S.S.R., produce over 90 percent of the world's supply. Chrysolite is the variety wanted by over 95 percent of the world's consumers. Most of the data in this report relate to chrysotile, and hereafter the term "asbestos" will mean chrysotile unless otherwise desig nated. Total world production in 1975 was an estimated 4.5 million tons of all grades and varieties (table I). Canada's share, because of a prolonged strike, was just 25 percent; the U.S.S.R produced an estimated 46 percent; the Republic of South Africa, 9 percent; the People's Republic of China, 4 percent; Italy, 4 percent; and the United States, 2 percent. Recent published data on world production do not credit U.S.S.R. production with the lower grades that are not used as fibers. Geographic Distribution In 1963, there was only one major asbestosproducing mine in the United States, GAF's Lowell mine in Vermont. During that year, another mine of similar size and output, and three lesser mines began operating in Califor nia. In 1974, all of the major producers oper ated, but in California, the largest mine and a lesser one closed during the year. In 1976, the largest California mine reopened under new ownership. Major domestic production is lim ited to Vermont and California. An area roughly 75 miles long and 5 to 6 miles wide, beginning 80 miles east of Mon treal, Canada, and continuing eastward con- 1 CTD007135 2 MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES Tab* 1.--World production, 1975, and capacity, tin and 1M0 (Thounnd thort ion| 1978 1978 1980 Canad* Tom ... South Anuria: Tom . Eurapo: SBuElovTto : uSs'Pil YitpOOH^i Otur ... Tom . 1.140 99 1,239 1 72 73 24 3 182 2X190 14 . &298 2,000 128 2,125 1 75 78 28 0 173 2JO0 19 4 2,421 2,800 80 130 2,780 1 90 91 30 0 180 2.800 40 5 2,888 190 180 200 SdvoouztotmAMd a_._W_ip.u..tt.e..d.. 182 41 90 100 48 86 Oi>or ............................... 1 11 Total ........................... 384 319 388 CMu. Peoples Rouble ot1 Sff*..::::::::::: Kona. Aaputftc d Tfwi ................. Turin?..................... 188 38 23 5 4 2 17 Total ................ 281 40 Wortd dwyaotta Mai .. puk Souto Afrtoa. Rapudto d 4,280 .........1.4.9 149 90 190 36 25 28 7 4 18 298 73 5,310 184 21 215 120 200 40 30 28 7 4 25 331 100 6,513 200 21 221 130 ' 1978 production. w*h too --oapttow d Canada and too LMtod Sanaa, was at tains not only the world's largest mine and mill, but, in toto, the largest concentration of known deposits in the world. Mergers and closings have reduced the number of operating companies to live in this "Eastern Townships" region, stretching from Danville to East Broughton, Quebec. Four of the companies are either totally or partially owned by U.S. corporations, most of which manufacture as bestos-containing products. New Canadian mines continue to be opened. The Asbestos Hill mini of the Asbestos Corp., located in northern Quebec on the Ungava Peninsula, opened in 1973 and continued production, while the even newer United Asbestos Corp. mine in Ontatio closed in 1977 because of financial problems. Canadian production in 1976 totaled 1,707,000 short tons; that of the United States totaled 114,842 short tons. Most Soviet asbestos is used domestically or in other countries that have centrally controlled economies. The large mine and mill complexes in the Bajenova district of the Urals, the Dzhetygara mine in Kazakhstan, and Ak-Dovurak in Tuva are to be joined by the Kiembay combine under construction in Orenburg Ob last and the planned development of the Molodezhnoye and N'chirsk deposits at Buryat. A new combine in Kazakhstan is to be a joint venture with several centrally controlled econ omy (COMECON) nations as partners. Rhodesian chrysolite deposits retain impor tance in the world market. The generally tight supply would assure this, but the chronic worldwide shortage of spinning grade libers accentuates it. Although presently available, domestic and Canadian production of these long fibers has not satisfied U.S. demand dur ing most of the past decade. Imports of the low-iron spinning-grade fibers needed in the electrical-insulation and textile segments of the industry are no longer entering due to the 1977 repeal of the "Bryd Amendment," which exempted strategic materials from United Na tions sanctions against Rhodesia. Swaziland and the Republic of South Africa are also major producers of chrysotile. South Africa is pres ently the sole producer of amosite and crocidolite, which are in diminishing demand. "In continent" use of African asbestos is increasing, but the large majority is still sold on the world market. Five mine and mill operations were run by as many companies to produce asbestos in the United States in 1976. Three of the operations were in California and one each in Arizona, Vermont, and perhaps North Carolina. The California companies are Atlas Mineral Corp., Calaveras Asbestos Ltd., and Union Carbide Corp. Jaquays Mining Corp. operates in Ari zona, and Vermont Asbestos Group, Inc., in Vermont. There was some anthophyilite pro duced domestically in 1976, reported to have come from North Carolina. Total employment in the five firms was 397. The fully integrated Johns-Manville Corp. is the largest asbestos producer in Canada, and is a major supplier to the world market. JohnsManville's many manufacturing plants in the United States use large quantities of asbestos as a raw material. Turner 8c Newell, Ltd., based in Manchester, England, is another fully integrated company with worldwide operations. Its mines are in Rhodesia, the Republic of South Africa, and Canada. Its Canadian subsidiary, Bell Asbestos Mines, Ltd., has a mine at Thetford, Quebec, and a large minority holding in Cassiar Asbes tos Corp., which has mines in British Columbia CTD007136 ASBESTOS MAJOR INTERNATIONAL ASBESTOS MINING GROUPS]/ - REV MAJOR GROUP COMMIT (MAJOR SHAREHOUXR AID PUCilTASE) It COMPAIT {MMOR SHAREHOLDER AM PCICEITAOE) H/A MT AVAUAIli y MOST MAJOR DROOPS HAVE MARUFACTUMK UTERESTS 2/ PRODUCTOR MMARDOWI (APPROWMATEfc CROODOUTE Ml AMOSITE 30*. CHRYWTttE ZM % PRttMMir HAVE TtRMTMMUL MAIOfACTURMH* WTEMSTJ y OTHER SHARCMOIOCRI MKlUOf AMET CORP IRC. It* PAIAC MC. 7\ IRTERASSESTOS IK. 7% - AU. U S COMPARES. SOURCE MIRERAl DEVELOPMENT SECTOR: OEPARTMERT OF ENERGY. MMES ARO RESOURCE! OTTAWA. CAIADA. Figure 1.--Major international asbestos mining groups. Figures above arrows indicate percent ownership of company shares. and the Yukon. Bell acts as selling agent for Cassiar. Much of the world market for asbestos from the Republic of South Africa is met by the Cape Asbestos Co., Ltd., London. This fully integrated company developed the mines there to feed its asbestos-product plants in Europe and North America. The larger international asbestos groups and their affiliations are depicted in figure 1 (20)*. CTD007137 4 MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES Definitions and Grades Asbestos is a name applied to a number of naturally fibrous minerals. The principal vari ety is chrysolite from the serpentine group, a hydrous magnesium silicate with the theoretical formula Mg^ijOufOH),. Other commercial va rieties (all amphiboles) are amosite, a trade name tor a complex iron-magnesium silicate (mostly cummingtonite-grunerite), (Mg,Fe+*), Si80,j(0H),; and crocidolite, a sodium-iron hydrous silicate variety of riebeckite, Na,Fe3+I Fe,+3 SisOj,(OH,F)r Of minor importance are tremolite asbestos, Ca,(Mg,Fe+,)s SijOj^OH.F),, and anthophyllite asbestos, (Mg.Fe**), SisOjjfOH.F), (1,3). Chrysotile, the principal variety of com merce, is graded and grouped according to fiber length. Most of the groups are divided into several subgroups to comprise the com mercial specifications. One producer alone of fers its customers 420 grades of fibers in 1,320 dif ferent forms (16). For some uses, the chem ical composition is important. Thus, for electric insulation, an upper limit for the iron content may be specified. The methods of classification used in the principal producing countries are discussed in detail in another Bureau of Mines publication (5). USES All uses of asbestos are as processed fiber. The processed chrysotile fibers are placed into the following groupings, which are based upon length of fiber: Groups I, 2, and 3.--These groups are com posed of the longest fibers; the major end-use products include textiles, clothing, theatre cur tains, different types of packings, fireproof textile products, woven brake linings, clutch facings, electrical insulation materials, and high-pressure and marine insulation. Group 4.--Its major use is in asbestos-cement pipe, which is used mainly in transporting water, such as in municipal waterworks, irriga tion, and conservation projects. Group 5.--This group is used in asbestoscement sheets, flat and corrugated sheets, lowpressure asbestos-cement pipes, and molded products. It is also used in some paper prod ucts such as pipe insulation, wrappings, and other products, including brake linings and gaskets. Group 6.--The main consumption for this group is in asbestos-cement products, gaskets, brake linings, vinyl sheet backings, and millboard. * lulici/td numhcn in parentheses refer io items in the list of references at ihe end of this report Group 7.--The group is used in molded brake linings and clutch facings, as a filler in vinyl and asphalt floor tile, and in asphalt compounds, joint and insulation cements, roof coatings, plastics, and caulking compounds. Asbestos-product plants are located in 16 States, principally in the eastern, southern and West Coast areas. Asbestos is adaptable to more than 2,000 uses. Because of its high strength-to-weight ratio and resistance to searing temperatures, it is used in rockets and missiles. Amosite is used for felted insulation in blanket form for hightemperature service up to 900 F. A loosely compacted form is applied as a covering for marine turbines, jet engines, and similar appli cations. Amosite is also used as a constituent of 85-percent-magnesia insulation and light weight, fire-resistant marine partition board. Long-fiber crocidolite ("blue asbestos") is woven into fabrics for locomotive-boiler lag ging (in Great Britain) and for acid-resistant packings and gaskets. The principal use of the shorter crocidolite fibers is in making asbestoscement pipe. Tremolite asbestos and antho phyllite asbestos are used for chemical-resistant filters, as welding-rod coatings, and as tillers in various products. World end-use patterns are not discernible from available data, and projections of U.S. patterns to the rest of the world- cannot be justified. In 1970, 70 percent of the world's asbestos was reportedly connected with prod ucts used in the construction industry (12). This still seems reasonable and can be used for planning purposes. The remaining 30 per cent is divided among a myriad of uses. RESERVES- RESO U RCES Whether the U.S. asbestos reserves shown in table 2 will become resources is debatable. Presently, the economic pressures of remaining competitive while making large capital expend itures to meet environmental regulations are being easily overcome by a buoyant world market in which demand exceeds supply. The strong demand is expected to continue but there is a real anxiety in the industry about proposed regulations that would exceed the technological capability to meet at any cost. The possible million tons of asbestos fiber at the Copperopolis, Calif., deposit are, under present environmental regulations, economic. The future of the millions of tons of short fibers available in the Coalinga, Calif., area is doubtful, because of low demand and environ mental costs. CTD007138 ASBESTOS 5 The world reserve picture seems better than the domestic one. in 1973 demand outstripped capacity to produce for the first time in recent years. Johns-Manville's Jeffrey mine, the world's largest, had sold its total annual pro duction by August. In 1974, there was a slight reduction in American consumption and Ca nadian production. In 1975, the landslide at Jeffrey mine and the 7-month strike at the mines around Thetford Mines reduced Cana dian production to 63 percent of that in 1974. During the strike, 55 percent of the normal supply for U.S. consumption was disrupted. This heightened the world demand which, even without this aberration, gave indications that it could seriously threaten world reserves by the year 2000. Geology Most chrysotile asbestos deposits, including those of Vermont and California in the United States, Canada, Southern Rhodesia, Swaziland, and Republic of South Africa, and the U.S.S.R., consist of irregular cross-fiber veins (closely packed fibers set at a right angle to the faces of the rock fractures) or slip-fiber zones (shear planes in rock, filled with fiber matted together parallel to the seam) in mas sive serpentine. Such deposits commonly ex tend to unknown depths. Those of Arizona, however, consist of more or less horizontal asbestos-bearing serpentine zones in thin-bedded limestone. Such deposits are generally less extensive and less persistent than those in massive serpentine. Amosite and crocidolite of the Republic of South Africa occur in banded ironstones that are so folded and contorted that the veins are very irregular. TECHNOLOGY Exploration and Development Exploration and development are apparently increasing throughout the world because of the increasing demand for asbestos fiber and lack of production capacity to meet that de mand. At least one major company is still actively exploring possible sites in the contig uous 48 States. Recently announced asbestos showings in the Eagle Quadrant in Alaska seem to be subeconomic. Exploration in Canada remains quite active. Some large metal-mining firms are joining the asbestos firms in the search for new asbestos deposits. TaM* 2. MwtlWsd work! aabaatoa raaourcas (MMon short tons) North Amertc: Uraied States......... Othor .................... ToM.................... South Amenc* ............. Europe............................ Africa ............................ Am............................... Oceania........................ Wortd total......... Reserves 1 9l Mf 65 5 52 22 7 9 160 Other resources 65 65 4 20 14 6 4 115 Tote) 130 130 9 72 36 15 13 275 ' Based on sverags U.S. phot of Mftsstos m 1975 of *144 psr ton. Mining in Vermont and in the Copperopolis district in California, the fiber-bearing rock is removed from an open pit. In the Coalinga district of California, the highly sheared ore is simply "plowed" and allowed to air-dry, and the coarse fraction is then screened dut from the mill feed. In Arizona, a heading is driven beneath the liber zone; the zone is later blasted down and milled. The Canadian mines generally are open pits. The chrysotile of Southern Rhode sia, the Republic of South Africa, and Swazi land is obtained from underground mines. Amosite is obtained chiefly from large under ground workings, and blue asbestos (crocido lite), from small open pits and shallow mines. The Soviet deposits are worked both in open pits and underground. Cyprus has large open pit workings. The data (17) analyzed by least squares regression analysis and depicted in figure 2 tell a very interesting story about asbestos recovery from established mines over a period of time. In 1951, in the Quebec asbestos mines, 75 percent of the rock mined was milled, and 9.9 percent of that milled was recovered as fibers. About 20 years later (1970), only 32.2 percent of the rock mined was milled, and it yielded 6.1 percent fibers. Trend projection to the year 2000 indicates that only 24.4 percent of the mined rock will be milled, and 2.9 percent of the milled material will be fibers. Many variables preclude prediction of the point when these trends would produce sube conomic resources, but they certainly portend escalating mining problems and costs. Processing Asbestos milling is a complex operation in volving primarily the separation of fiber from rock and classification of liber by length. There has been little change in the basic methods CTD007139 fltC IN I 6 MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES described in a previous Bureau of Mines pub lication (4). Special milling techniques have been devel oped for the matted short-fiber chrysotile of the Coalinga district of California, including grinding and wet-milling. In Copperopolis, Calif., Vermont, and Can ada, the mills are large and complex. The fiber is classified in many grades, such as spinning, cement stock, and paper stock. In many mills, asbestos fiber is packed under pressure in five-ply paper and/or woven vinyl bags. Each pressure-packed bag contains 100 pounds of asbestos and occupies about 2 cubic feet. With this pressure-packing, the asbestos measures 45 cubic feet per short ton. Asbestos-producer research and develop ment programs are engaged primarily in low ering mining costs and refining processes. For example, at Johns-Manville's Jeffrey mine in Quebec, 200-ton-capacity trucks are used to haul waste, pit rock, and overburden (18). Trucks of 100-ton capacity are used to feed the ore to a primary crusher, which can accept such a truckload from each of two sides simul taneously. Process refinement research and develop ment has paid dividends in two ways. Tech niques have been developed that successfully recover short fibers from waste tailing piles by reprocessing. These also reduce dust levels in the mills, aiding in worker protection. Automation and computer control of the asbestos milling circuits are not only under study (7) but also in operation. The new No. 6 mill at Jeffrey mice is a crusher-dryer-concen trator complex that is fully computer con trolled (18). Current Research The largest area of research concerned with asbestos for the last few years has been in connection with the controversial health aspects of the fibers. The National Institute of Envi ronmental Health Sciences, for example, started a multiyear animj-feeding study in 1976 to determine the health effects of in gested asbestos and asbestos-related minerals. In late 1976, the Bureau of Mines established the Particulate Mineralogy Unit at College Park, Md., to help clarify the present confusion in particulate mineralogy, especially in regard to asbestos, and to develop a solid scientific basis for research into particle-related pollution problems and for the process of decisionmak ing by regulatory bodies. The Bureau of Mines no longer has a research program aimed at l*M> 19*0 WO 19*0 1900 3000 rurcau o< nuras III DffARTMfNT Of THf INTERIOR Figure 2.--Quebec production trends, trom analysis of 1951-70 data. either synthesizing analogs of the natural fibers or finding substitutes. There are several synthetic inorganic fibers available commercially and more are becoming available each year. Most efforts seem to be aimed at thermal insulation, which constitutes only a small portion of the asbestos market. The most desirable characteristic of asbestos, its tensile strength, is compared with other fibers in table 3. Glass-reinforced cement, now available com mercially in the United States and Europe, could affect the f uture of the asbestos industry. The glass used is a high-zirconia, alkali-resistant fiber developed by the United Kingdom's Building Research Station. However, several drawbacks have been reported (14): The glass fibers have inferior drainage characteristics; they are formed by a costly spray-suction proc ess; their strength gradually fails with time; and they cost about four times as much as the equivalent asbestos. The exotic and very expensive inorganic whiskers, such as sapphire (Alj03), are the only synthetic fibers that equal or surpass the strength of asbestos. Even the very newest inorganic fibers available commercially (//) are not as strong as glass and cannot be considered seriously competitive with asbestos. The present shortages and projected de mands indicate serious depletion of present reserves by the end of the century. Accelerated research is necessary to find substitute fibers that will have at least some of the attractive asbestos characteristics of strength, chemical inertness, heat resistance, and econony. CTD007140 CroddoM ......... ChfyMdto ......... Qian ............ Alumnum ......... SM 5137......... ASBF.STOS Kgtem* 35.000 21.000 25.000 15.500 1J00 3.700 TaM* 3.--Characteristic* of tonw flbora (6) Tondls drwgft Lb/In* * 10* 500 300 400 250 25.6 526 Young's modulus Kg/cm* Utfn* 172.2 x 10 153.3 x 10 155.4 x 10- 73.0 x 10* 70.0 x 10* 190.0 x 1C' 24.6 x 10* 21.9 x 10* 222 x 10 8.5 x 10* 9.9 x 10* 27.0 x 10 / Spocdc pavrty 3.2 3.1 24 4.6 2.7 78 SUPPLY-DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS Components of Supply During the entire history of the asbestos industry in the United States, domestic sources have been able to meet only a small percentage of U.S. requirements. Vermont and the Copperopolis district of California have been the only consistent U.S. sources of Quebec-type asbestos. Both are predominantly producers of short liber, but the Vermont asbestos mines produce about 500 to 700 tons per year of spinning-length liber. Most of it is applied to nonspinning uses. Canada furnished 96 percent of all the asbes tos tonnage imported by the United States (1971-75), but only a small portion (2 percent) was spinning-grade libers. The comparatively small quantities received from Africa, particu larly those formerly received from Rhodesia, are more important than would appear on a tonnage basis because they consist largely of special kinds and qualities unobtainable else where. Under emergency conditions, imports of spinning libers are of primary importance. Imports of spinning fibers from Canada aver age about 15,000 tons pier year. The longer fibers of chrysotile suitable for spinning repre sent a small traction of the total production. Shortages of spinning-grade fibers have previ ously occurred and seem to be becoming chronic. Imports of amosite into the United States trom 1971 to 1975 averaged about 8,000 tons per year. During the first year of this period, the United States was purchasing for the na tional stockpile, and imported over 14,000 tons. Government purchasing stopped, and the imports totals were halved for 1972 and 1975. In October 1976, the Federal Preparedness Agency announced a stockpile goal for amosite to be 26,291 short tons. (See "Strategic Consid erations.") Imports of crocidolite advanced Irom 12,000 tons in 1954 to 24,000 tons in 1966, but averaged only about 10,000 tons pier year trom 1971 to 1975. U.S. and World Production In 1973, U.S. production of asbestos fiber was at an alltime high; however, production in 1974 and 1975 did not reach that level owing to the early 1974 closing of two California mines that represented about 40 percent of the 1973 production. The reopening of the Copperopolis, Calif., mine in 1976 by Calav eras Asbestos Ltd. brought domestic produc tion up to 81 piercent of the 1973 record high. Canadian asbestos production continued to increase until 1974, when there was a small decline in production, followed by an addi tional 37-p>ercent decrease in 1975. New pro duction capacity will repiortedly reach 520,000 short tons by 1980 (9). A total of 1.15 million tons pier year of new capacity is expected to become available in world markets during 1973-80 (9). This in cludes 300,000 tons of Soviet exports and production from mines in Australia, Colombia, Greece, New Zealand, Mexico, and Brazil. A mill tire, landslide, and protracted strike combined to reduce Canada's 1975 production to only 1.14 million tons--61 percent of its 1973 high--and prematurely widened the expiected gap between supply and demand. Canadian production (all chrysotile) was 1.69 million tons in 1972, 1.97 million tons in 1974, 1.14 million tons in 1975, and 1.71 million tons in 1976. The spinning grades of chrysotile asbestos produced in Southern Rhodesia were of great impiortance during World War II and the early postwar years because they constituted the principal source of low-iron chrysotile suitable lor shipboard electric-cable construction. They were of renewed impiortance each time a spin ning-grade shortage appeared. The only new source of asbestos with substantive amounts of spinning-grade fiber that has become available in the postwar years is the low-iron deposit ol chrysotile that was opened in 1953 in British Columbia. Production of amosite in the Republic of South Africa, which increased from an average of 20,000 tons per year during the I940's to 100,000 tons in 1973, dropped to 88,000 tons in 1975. CTD007141 8 WORLD PRODUCTION I______ _ USSJI 2 090 tows MfUWC Of CNMA its itAir tea IHRTIDnSTATES SHOSUWTHRUACTOKA niGCSLAVM 14 mah n SWA21UM 41 CYPRUS )S JAPAM S MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES ASBESTOS SUPPLY-DEMAND MUTTONSHIFS-147 5 THOUSAND SHORT TONS ASRCSTOS A SU U US SOPPIV mi US DtMANO SOS KIT SCt EERTATAMBAATHIO RUSTHJU OASSnCATHM IU0NM nooucn U Ufa -sunmtnsi cmerr nr sc ms SC HOT SHUT SHEET u an TACURC ARO BASIETS "SHE MSAATOH I M Ml PAPER TOCOUCTS SC WOT tertree um OTHER WORLD TOTAL 4. SO* BUREAU OP TNNES U S. DRPARTMENT OP THI INTERIOR Figure 3.--Supply-demand relationship lor asbestos, 1975. 10,000 tons during the 1940's to 165,000 tons in 1975. U.S. and World Consumption Figure 4 --Apparent national asbestos consumption trends. Crocidolite is mined only in the Republic of South Africa. Af rican production of crocidolite has increased from an annual average of In 1972, the Bureau of Mines began collect ing data on domestic asbestos consumption on a greatly revised canvass form that negates efforts at comparison with previous years. In dustry cooperation has resulted in more com plete data, and further revisions of the form are planned. The data in table 5 have been adjusted to reflect 100 percent of the apparent consumption. The 11 major uses in 1976 were as follows: Roofing products (34 percent), as bestos-cement pipe (19 percent), flooring prod ucts (15 percent), friction products (8 percent), paper (4 percent), asbestos-cement sheet (3 percent), plastics (2 percent), packing and gas kets (2 percent), coatings and compounds (2 percent), insulation (1 percent), and textiles (1 percent). World consumption of asbestos is increasing at a much faster rate than that in the United States (fig. 4). Maintaining the 4.5-percent predicted growth rate may not be possible within the limits of production capacity. The recent economic recession had no apparent effect on world asbestos demand, because the Canadian production troubles in 1975 have masked trend developments. CTD007142 ASBESTOS TaM* 4. Agb--tot uppty-dmnd raMionalilpa, 1987-78 (Tbouaand ihort tons) 1987 1988 1989 1970 1971 1972 1973 wonommaaraoucaan. Uritatf mi.................. ............... ............... Tam............................. ........... . 123 3,084 3407 121 3,170 3,291 126 4,042 4,168 125 3,672 3.797 131 3416 3,947 132 44)50 4,182 150 4,446 4,598 Corngonanw of U.S. cpfy: ________ 123 121 128 125 131 ` 132 150 SMpronu of Govammant atocfcpda 1 1 5 11 6 16 7 ............... 618 709 MS 626 680 724 771 ............... 15 14 11 9 7 5 13 ............... 13 20 15 14 15 7 6 induaRy meta, Jan. i... ............... 19 17 18 23 21 30 96 ToW U.S. maetf ........ ........... 799 876 644 909 842 914 1,045 fulfil aion of U S- unto: Qovammart aequifton . 1 7 MoiyiM. 0*c 31... ............... 20 18 24 20 29 48 103 ............... 47 41 36 47 54 59 66 m 817 784 734 759 806 876 U.S. damand pwlam: Hoofing products ..... . ............... 179 204 198 184 191 202 218 ............... 134 15$ 148 139 144 154 168 Booing product ............ ............... 71 92 79 73 76 81 67 Frtcaon products ............ .......... 86 74 71 66 69 73 79 51 $7 56 51 S3 57 84 Pactung and gaada.w............... ............... .......... Papar products............... ............... TaiMaa ............... 22 22 14 14 28 26 16 16 24 24 16 16 22 2IS2 15 23 23 15 15 24 24 16 16 26 26 16 19 Ottar ............................. ............... 145 183 154 147 151 188 174 Total U.S. damand ... ............... 721 817 784 734 759 609 876 1974 113 4.423 4,536 113 29 74? 11 6 108 1,011 103 62 846 153 222 78 80 96 29 14 63 2940 946 9 1975 99 4,410 4,509 99 7 523 12 4 108 740 104 39 608 138 193 46 68 44 17 6 66 9 68 600 1978 115 4,665 5,000 123 2 646 10 2 104 887 115 47 726 113 140 293 64 23 20 9 31 7 66 726 Tabte 5.--U.8. m Nition by and um, grwte, and typa, 1*78 (Short lorn) ChryaoMa tom AfiwaMa i Or. 4 Or. 5 Or. 6 Or. 7 Or. chjjo- If Hoofing products......................... ........ 1500 inaiiaflon, alaewoal............. ........ Frtedon produce ........... .................... Caatry and compounda ______ 200 Otisr ......................... Total............................... ............. 1,700 600 1500 1,100 1,800 100 2400 200 6400 100 300 14,800 88400 2,100 5400 800 1400 300 2400 300 1400 800 102,400 26400 3400 6400 400 6400 200 100 21.100 300 100 3400 72400 3,100 9400 900 1.900 700 1400 200 9400 100 1400 200 6400 104400 261400 3400 - 3,000 1400 31,000 19400 1S.400 22400 4.400 3,600 14,700 52400 454.000 200 .... 200 116400 22/400 113400 aannniwoi anna 2400 63.400 19400 19,700 7400 30.700 22,700 999.900 ai.im 100 700 300 .... 21.400 2400 200 100 100 1400 4400 100 _ 300 _1,100 .... 1400 140400 22,700 113400 an non 20,100 6400 2400 . 63400 19400 21400 7.400 31400 33500 729400 World Trade It one were to remove from consideration the asbestos produced in the People's Republic of China (nearly all is used domestically) and that produced in the U.S.S.R. (most of which is used domestically or in other COMECON countries), a truer picture of Canadian promi nence emerges. In the rest of the world, Canada had 67 percent of the market in 1973; the Republic of South Africa, 12 percent; Italy, 6 percent; and the United States, 5 percent. In 1975 (Canada's low year), Canada had 51 percent of this market; the Republic of South Africa, 17 percent; Italy, 7 percent; and the United States, 4 percent. Canada's main markets are the United States and Europe, but there is a considerable trade in the Far East. South Africa sells most of-its asbestos to European and African companies. The market for Italian asbestos is mainly in Europe. Recycling Asbestos fibers cannot be recycled in their common role of reinforcing a host matrix because removal from the matrix would de stroy the libers. There are few asbestos uses (mainly textile) that have uncombined fibers in the end prod uct. When these products are no longer useful, neither is the asbestos because of the physical and/or chemical changes that have made it a different mineral with less strength or shorter fibers of less value than reclamation costs. CTD007143 10 MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES Tab!* 6.--Current stockpile goal* and Oovammant invsntoriss aa of Oocambar 31 (Short tons) Stockgoads Tout tnvantonti 1975 1976 Sana or **1976** Amoarta................. Chrysoto#............. Croddofto............. 26291 Non* Non* Total.......................... 45.293 10.956 2.478 56.727 42.623 ' 10.965 '2.474 56.052 2.670 2.670 ' Ad|ustad ftgur*. Fadarai Praparamaat Aganey. Thus, asbestos is a nonrenewable natural re source with substitutes in only a lew of its many uses. STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS Tatota 7.--'Tbm-pric* ralattonahlp for aabaata Ymr Avaragt annual poor, doton par anon ton Actual pnoa Constant 1975 doton 1966 1957 1966 1966 1980 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1989 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 99.76 86.09 90.50 91 17 94 62 95.60 94.65 92.44 96.70 97.92 100.63 101.91 96.93 110.09 115.64 117.54 116.63 122.22 122.27 144.14 206.31 161.63 172.36 174.34 171.63 175.35 175.61 171.09 16431 172.73 167.67 166.62 164.11 152.46 161.46 161.06 155.76 149.42 147.01 133.66 144.14 197.56 During World War II, controls were in effect to restrict exports of asbestos needed in the military program. These controls were re moved by executive order on September 10, 1945. During the Korean war, the supply situation again became acute, and in 1950 and 1951 controls were invoked that required licen ses for export of all grades of asbestos. The license requirement was removed for the non spinning grades in 1953 and for spinning libers in 1954; however, export licenses are still required for shipments to nations that have centrally controlled economies. The United States joined the United Nations embargo of Rhodesian products in 1967. By 1969 all Rhodesian asbestos except occasional small lots released from bonded warehouses or the government stockpile had disappeared from the U.S. market. In 1971 an exception to the sanctions for strategic materials, including asbestos, was enacted by Congress. Significant amounts of Rhodesian asbestos were appearing at U.S. ports by the time the sanctions were reimposed early in 1977. Chrysotile and amosite are the only types of asbestos remaining on strategic stockpile lists, but the present goal for chrysotile has been reduced to zero, although a moratorium on acquisitions and disposals went into effect in February 1977, and there was some chrysotile on hand. The status of the asbestos in the stockpile as of December 31, 1976, is shown in table 6. The United States is historically dependent upon foreign sources for about 90 percent ol its requirements for all grades and types of asbestos. The principal sources of low-iron, spinning-grade chrysotile asbestos are British Columbia in Canada and previously Rhodesia. A small amount of low-iron, long-liber chryso tile is available from Arizona. The only source ol commercial grades and quantities of amosite is a limited area in the Transvaal, Republic ol South Africa. The United States is completely dependent on foreign sources for crocidolite. Although the United States is an asbestos-im porting country, there is some export trade, because domestic chrysotile producers have significant markets in Japan and Latin Amer ica. There are some reexports of foreign libers. The Asbestos Corp.'s bulk shipments of con centrate (30 percent libers) from its Asbestos Hill mine in Canada to its new mill in Nordenham, West Germany, was novel. The operation, started in 1972, may portend other changes in the world market, since it has been singularly successful. ECONOMIC FACTORS AND PROBLEMS Prices and Costs Prices for Canadian asbestos continued to climb, with a 14-percent increase in 1977. Quebec chrysotile fiber prices in 1977, f.o.b. mine, ranged from Can$85 per short ton for 7T, which is the shortest of the regular grades generally produced, to Can$ 1,700 for the long est of the milled fibers. Crude No. I was quoted at Can$4,000 per ton. British Columbia (Cassiar) sold for Can$268 for CZ to Can$3,621 per ton for Crude No. I. Vermont chrysotile, produced in grades sim ilar to those in Canada, ranged in price in 1977 from $82 for Group 7 to $477 for Group 4, f.o.b. mine. Arizona libers ranged in price from $100 for Group 7 to $3,000 per ton for No. 1 crude, t.o.b. Globe, Ariz. The average price for amosite, l.o.b. U.S. ports in 1976, was $561 per short ton; lor crocidolite, prices averaged $579 per short ton. The total value for the 114,842 tons ol asbestos produced in the United States during CTD007144 ASBESTOS 1I 1976 was $23,693,000, averaging $206.31 per ton l o b. mine site. The imports of asbestos for consumption were valued at $153 million. Least-square-regression analysis of a 10-year period of Canadian asbestos production (fig. 5) is taken from the 1972 Minerals Yearbook. The marked divergence of the value and pro duction lines shows graphically the inflationary trends. The upward slope of the production and export lines is indicative of the expanding world market. The slight divergence between the production and export lines illustrates that Canada's consumption growth rate exceeds that of production and that an increasing amount of Canadian asbestos is consumed do mestically. Reasons for production cost in creases (decline in grade of ore) are apparent in figure 2, although table 7, with the exception of 1976 data, indicates a steady decrease in unit value in constant dollars. Taxes and Tariffs There are no special taxes on the asbestos industry. Producers are granted a depletion allowance of 22 percent on domestic produc tion and 10 percent on foreign production. Domestic asbestos producers have no tariff protection. Transportation The Quebec and Vermont deposits are within easy rail haul to most of the plants manufacturing asbestos products in the indus trial areas of the Eastern United States. The African deposits are remote from the principal markets and have high transportation ex penses, although African markets are increas ing. Transportation from British Columbia, Canada, to any market area is costly. The Arizona producer also has transportation prob lems. The mines are in the vicinity of Globe, the nearest railhead, with an average haul to the railroad of about 50 miles, compounded by the distance to the major consumption centers in the northeast. Consumption of asbestos is also growing along the west coast of the United States and other areas where fiber from California would be competitive, in terms of freight rates, with that from Quebec. Packing tor ocean transport, either way, is changing to containerization. South African shippers have developed packaging techniques that conform to our container requirements. Western U.S. producers package their export asbestos in intermodal containers. Rail ship ments handle about 80 percent of asbestos Figure 5.--Trends in Canadian asbestos production, exports, and production value, 1961-7!. shipments, but these are not yet being contain erized. Energy Requirements The Bureau of Mines conducted a compre hensive study of the energy used in the asbes tos-mining industry in 1973. The survey cov ered all producers in Arizona, California, North Carolina, and Vermont. On a tonnage basis, energy used per ton of usable asbestos was equivalent to 1,500 kilo watt-hours. Estimated cost was $1.7 million, or $11.55 per ton. The ease of mining the Coalinga, Calif., deposit kept these data low. In contrast to the Bureau of Mines study are the data in table 9, extracted from a University of Illinois study (15). They demon strate the energy costs of a large mine and mill with higher extraction energy require ments than the average U.S. producer. Their energy requirements per ton are equivalent to 2,823 kilowatt-hours. These data compare fa vorably with a report from Battelle Columbus Laboratories (2), which found the energy used per ton of asbestos produced to be 2,492 kilowatt-hours. The following table (#) demonstrates the need for asbestos by the energy-producing industries during the period 1975-90: Ensrgy industry Gaotvmai powptinU..................................................... Nuctaar faaion powarptanta .............................................. OH and Qta ralnariaa, port facittaa, Kquid natural gas, pipalnaa.......................................................................... FoaaH fuai poaarpianto ..................................................... Coal mmss and franaport ............... Uranium mining and prooaaang ...................................... ftoconvaraton ................................................................... Total ....................................................................... 98,532 53,393 49,449 305 97 $5 i 161362 CTD007145 12 MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES TaMa 8.--Enargy uaad by ttw U.S. aabaatoa mining Induatiy, 1973 Soura raid und Hbbvy tool ol ...................................... fnuund aalona QKMft ...................................fMUMndldeMflhoun.. liqudpototoumgm .............................................'do___ fl-tlno................. ................................................. do.... Tom mrsy. Iwuoond uMM horn........................ Oood m mining 852 2,841 412 14 52 59,192 Uaadn mMng 1.345 44.974 133 188 12 168.994 ToW UMd 2.197 188 47.815 545 182 64 226.186 ToW (thousand (atoms how) 96,356 50.736 47.615 22,147 6.967 2343 226.166 OPERATING FACTORS AND PROBLEMS In 1970, Congress enacted "The Clean Air Act." Among the provisions ol' that act was that the Administrator ol' the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could designate sub stances as "hazardous air pollutants." One of three substances named to the first list on March 31, 1971, was asbestos. This was the first Federal agency to address the growing controversy about the effects of asbestos dust upon the health of humans. There is insufficient space to document the conflicting reports, and insufficient data to evaluate the validity of each. The few areas of consensus are as follows: 1. Prolonged occupational exposure to heavy concentrations of asbestos dust, in the absence of personal protective devices, can measurably increase the chances of a person contracting the type of pneumoconiosis called asbestosis. 2. Exposure to asbestos may increase the chances of contracting the very rare type of cancer called mesothelioma. 3. Asbestos workers exposed to heavy con centrations of dust without respiratory protec tion, and who are also heavy smokers, have increased chances of contracting lung cancer. 4. The evidence concerning the possible hazard from ingestion of asbestos particles is contradictory and inconclusive (10). There is no consenus about a threshold limit value (an acceptable concentration that would minimize danger from exposure), or even a method of measuring it. EPA says there is no acceptable way to measure asbestos in the ambient air. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) of the Labor Department uses a membrane filter and mi croscopy method with a present standard of two fibers greater than 5 micrometers in length per milliliter of air. The method used by the Mining Enforcement and Safety Administra tion (MESA) approaches the OSHA method; one MESA group uses the two fiber level and another uses a five-fiber level, but is currently moving to the two-fiber limit. The controversial aspects of the matter ap- TaMa 9. Enargy conaumad In tha production of 1 ton or onnn no 91VQN cnryooioo monm typo of to* IMm:1 nictoc Otoooffuofa*................. BW*r6Coi................... Kraom........................... Goadno............................ ToW .............................. Pnmray cnjorangiBoctoc .... Sooondray oruBhtnQ: Etoctoc 38 Itowi hours . 10.09 fl 1.32fl 0.04 { 0.4 euiooWMiom... 88 HtooWMtoure . Equivatoni toouoond Btu 498 1.680 245 7 70 2.501 79 No^feoioi* ............. BunWrflCott*.................. Propono* ........................ 38 Htooratt how . 0.48aoHon........... 13.97gtobm........ 0.11 f 490 82 2.593 12 ToW ............................... ng ran ynonp- dmvv .. 226*kitowo8-how 3.188 2.986 Grand toW....................... 9.624 'MnMW t yajra ogrqanwiWd Iwwi fn InpoM salon (Imp gal) ID U.S. galon uomg 1 mp I on a larga Ouabac nana Mb a Wo-i ora Mo. of ora. and 2S to 90 inaiaa o> mna praclpaalon par .par Basad on eMric vafua of 1S4.04SK33. Saaad on aoarasa oaforio Mia of M2&000 Bki par banal d on ararasa oatortc vafua of 3343.000 Btu par barrat. bar par ton pear to be of the long lasting variety with no early solutions in sight. An example of litigation in the controversy is the Reserve Mining Co. case, in which the company was sued by the Federal Government primarily for polluting Lake Superior with asbestos-bearing tailings, and secondarily for air pollution with asbestos fibers. The judg ment rendered said there was no indication of harm from ingested asbestos, but that both the water and air pollution must be abated in a reasonable time. The controversy had no ef fect in the market place in 1973 and 1974, in which years there were record high consumption and production. Any effects in 1975 and 1976 were masked by the shortages attendant to the Canadian pro duction troubles and were not discernible. Much research was funded by Congress to answer environmental questions. Some of these questions are as follows: 1. Is asbestos by and of itself a true carcino gen? 2. Are there significant differences, under the same conditions of exposure, between the toxicities of different types of asbestos? 3. What is the dose-response relationship to CTD007146 ASBESTOS 13 asbestos dust exposure, or what exactly is a safe level of exposure? 4. Are there any physiological effects from the asbestos in the ambient air? 5. Is there a valid correlation between meas urements of asbestos dust by the various meth ods? 6. Is there any physiological effect from asbestos ingested with food or water? 7. Are there valid correlations between the health effects of conditions of 30 years ago and those of today, or between occupational and incidental exposure to asbestos? The health problems allegedly connected with exposure to asbestos dust continue to make headlines. Stories about the dangers of asbestos dust from air ducts, brake linings, road abrasion, and the erection and demolition of buildings are just a few of the late ones. These stories, whether valid or not, keep pres sure on the regulatory agencies and may be a causative factor in OSHA's late 1975 proposal to reduce the safe exposure level to asbestos from 5 fibers greater than 5 micrometers in length per cubic centimeter to 0.5 fiber per' cubic centimeter and the proposal a year later by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to reduce the level even further to 0.1 fiber per cubit centimeter. As of July 1, 1976, OSHA's permissible-exposure level dropped to 2.0 libers per cubic centime ter. As late as June 1977, no hearings had been held on the 0.5-fiber-per-cubic-centimeter proposal. OUTLOOK Demand Domestic demand for asbestos is expected to increase slowly to between 1,026,000 and 2,000,000 short tons in the year 2000. The low of the range indicates an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent; the high indicates 3.8 percent. The forecast was derived by contingency forecasting of the major end use demands, considering possible shifts caused by either changing technology or dwindling resources during the forecast period (table 11). Much higher than normal growth in demand was experienced by asbestos in the decade between 1940 and 1950. The total increase for that period was 200 percent above the 1940 level, one-half of it occurring during the war years and one-half in the following 5 years. Estimated annual growth rates of between 0.54 and 2.73 percent were obtained by correlation analysis between asbestos demand for the last 20 years and appropriate economic indicators. The quantity of asbestos indicated by this projection method for each end use was modi fied to obtain a demand range contingent on technologic or other changes in the consuming industries. About two-thirds of the asbestos demand in the United States during 1975 was consumed by the construction industry, and this ratio is expected to persist throughout the forecast period. The U.S. probable demand for asbestos in 2000 is expected to be about 1.3 times that of the 20-year trend point for'1975. The rest-ofworld demand should show a greater growth since the developing countries have a much greater new construction potential. Demand is likely to be limited by capacity to produce. This growth rate is estimated at 4.5 percent. Lf problems prevent an increase in general living standards in the rest of the world, the con sumption of asbestos would represent an an nual average growth rate estimated at 3.4 percent. The low of the range would be 8.6 million tons under these conditions. Table 10 summarizes forecast ranges for United States and the rest of the world. Figure 6 shows historical demand in the last 20 years and 10and 20-year trend projections to the year 2000. Demand for asbestos for use in the construc tion industry was projected to the year 2000 at an average annual gr.owth rate of 0.3 to 0.5 percent on the basis of total new construction modified by the 20-year trend. The figures for the year 2000 are believed to be near the minimum that could normally be expected. However, substitution is possible in many of the end uses, particularly in asbestos-cement products, where a variety of alternative ceramic and new plastic materials are available, and in paints and caulking, where asbestos has a wide range of substitutes. The low end of the range for asbestos construction products was obtained by assuming a continuation of the 20-year trend. On the high side of the demand range, the most apparent opportunities for increases above the forecast base appear to be asbestoscement products, which compete with lumber and other building products, many of which are increasing rapidly in price. The growth rate for asbestos-cement products could aver age 4 percent per year and approach the anticipated growth rate for total new construc tion by the year 2000. Use of asbestos in floor tile has been increasing in recent years because of shortages and highei prices for some com peting materials. Paper products are used in electrical appliances as well as in construction, r- CTD007147 14 MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES Tabt* 10.--Summary of forecast* of US. and reat-of-woild aabaatoa damand, 1975-2000 (Thousand short tonal Unitod Staiaa Total....................... Cumulate*1 ......... Rost ot world1 Total........................ Cumuiatrv#2 ......... World' Total....................... Cumutatfv* ............. 1975 609 3.904 4.512 2000 Forscast rang* Low High 1.026 22.600 6.576 147.000 9.604 169,600 2.000 33.300 14,177 200.000 16.177 233.300 Probabt* 1985 2000 660 8,400 5.740 47,500 6.620 55.900 1,036 22.900 11.040 172.000 12.078 194,900 ProbBblS av*rags annual 975-2000. par00m 1.1 4.5 40 ' Calculator* from a 20-yoar U.S. damand trand of 791 for 1975. 2 Calculatad from a 10-yaar raat-of-wodd damand rand of 3.996 for 1975. U.S. ASBESTOS DEMAND, 1055 - 2000 (THOUSAND SHORT TONS) U.S. ASBESTOS PRODUCTION, 1055 - 2000 (THOUSAND SHORT TONS) Figure 6.--U.S. asbestos production, demand, and projected trends to 2000. and although the quantity tor such use is relatively small, it is expected to grow more than I percent per year. Asbestos demand for friction products was projected to the year 2000 at an annual rate ol 1.5 percent. This figure was based on a for mula derived from analysis of total asbestos demand modified by the estimated growth in the automobile industry and economic indica tors, which showed the best correlation. Asbestos is an important part of many types of friction materials for use in automobiles, trucks, and other transportation equipment. Modern industry could scarcely function with out asbestos friction materials. In addition to using asbestos in brake linings, automobiles equipped with automatic transmissions get their drive Irom metal transmission disks, which are covered with a super-tough paper containing crocidolite asbestos. The average automobile with power shift contains from eight to twelve of the paper-lined disks. Al though the quantity of asbestos in each trans mission is small, the output of more than 8 million automatic transmissions annually re quires disk-paper production of hundreds of tons. A new composition disk-brakeshoe unit con taining asbestos has been designed to meet the critical braking requirements for the new 150mile-per-hour passenger train systems pro jected for U.S. use. Based on an estimated forecast of the num ber of motor vehicles produced in the year 2000, and on the assumption that the use of asbestos per vehicle will remain at present levels, the forecast for asbestos demand in user-operated vehicles is projected to 118,000 tons. An increased number of transportation vehicles and equipment using parts made of asbestos or maintaining the present quantity used pier vehicle could result in a demand as high as 189,000 tons. Demand for asbestos in textiles was projected to 24,000 tons in year 2000 by formula derived from analysis modified by the 20-year trend. Asbestos textiles are used in the manufacture of yarn and cloth, which is used in products such as safety clothing, packings, brake linings, and filters. Carded liber filters are 100 pecent asbestos and are used for the clarification of oils and chemicals, and in some countries, tor wine and beer. Asbestos lap is a felted form of carded asbestos fiber made for the electric wire and cable industry, as insulation for heater CTD00714S ASBESTOS 15 Tabto 11.--Protection* and forecasts for U.S. eebeetoe demand by and use. 1975 and 2000 (Thousand thort tons) 2000 1075 ConHnQancpt i toe Unitad $Wa WaUMMaiw ......... Aooing product .................... Frtttonproduce ............ Pm ...................................... 09m ....................................... Tom............................... -n 153 iS*^ f 17 66 6 66 6 66 606 66W1 244 9$ 323 129 39 124 39 26 29 296 Low 270 IIS 167 92 39 97 17 76 24 113 1.026 High 527 224 364 180 66 169 33 149 47 219 2.000 274 116 199 93 3$ 96 77 24 IIS 1.099 o o * HV . TVS' 1 Tha loraeaat baaa for Mcion produce it darfcad from laMtlpf antfya* on data for 1960-75. AM ofhar 2000 forooaai baoa fguro* ara baaad on data for 1990-73. cords, fixture wires, and other electrical con ductors. Asbestos rovings are used by the electric wire industry to serve as insulation for heater cords, cables, and electrical heating ele ments. The projected growth of asbestos de mand in electrical appliances coupled with design improvements that increase asbestos use could result in increased asbestos demand. On the other hand, there are other materials used as insulation that could replace asbestos for some purposes. Because of its inherent incombustibility and thermal stability, asbestos cloth is extensively used whenever these properties are essential in a fabric. Many Government specifications requiring pipe insulation to be protected by an outside jacket of asbestos doth are being re vised for alleged health reasons. Many mari time specifications and industrial and utility powerplant specifications required asbestos cloth to hold the insulation in place and to serve as a permanent protection and fireproof jacket over pipe and boiler insulation. These are also being revised. Specially processed lintfree asbestos cloths serve as protective shields in nonradioactive areas adjacent to nuclear reactors. Competition from other substitute material is not likely to be important, and no competi tive factor is considered. Production of asbestos textile yarn, cord; and thread in 1963 was 19.7 million pounds and is assumed to be nearly the same now. Output of asbestos cloth in 1963 was 9.4 million pounds and 11.5 million pounds in 1968. Data for the last 5-year period (1968-73) are not available. Assuming that there will be some increased use of asbestos for such items as electrical appliances and fire fighting equipment, the high projected de mand could be 47,000 tons in the year 2000. With low-cost, short-fiber asbestos available from domestic sources in large quantities, there should be a significant impact on the mineral filler market for a wide range of end products, particularly in products that must withstand high temperatures or corrosive conditions. Supply Domestic resources of chryostile are found mostly in California, Vermont, and Arizona. Although deposits are known to exist also in Montana, Oregon, Wyoming, and a few other States, production from these has been negli gible. California has the greatest potential of becoming a substantial producer of short-fiber asbestos. In addition, anthophyllite asbestos is produced in North Carolina. Nine of the major asbestos-product-manufac turing firms have captive fiber sources through U.S. and Canadian mines, either wholly or partially owned, (19). The total present pro duction capacity of these mines exceeds 2 million short tons per year. The United States has been dependent on foreign supplies of asbestos for certain essential and strategic grades. Canada supplies most ot our requirements for chrysotile, with South Africa supplying amosite and crocidolite. The increasing world demand coupled with the forecasted shortfall in foreign supplies should encourage development of domestic resources. Such development of domestic asbestos depos its, if feasible under environmental regulations and coupled with advancing technology in the use of substitutes, could shift our position from heavy reliance on foreign supplies for this mineral. United States and Canadian chrysotile re sources are more than ample to meet the high of the forecast domestic demand for 2000, but could affect Canadian capability for supplying a major part of the demand in the rest of the world. The relationship between Quebec pro ducers and U.S. consumers could be altered if the Provincial Government carries through on CTD007149 16 MINERAL COMMODITY PROFILES its announced interest in nationalizing the as bestos industry {13). The relatively small requirements lor amosite will continue to come from the Republic of South Africa unless deposits of a similar asbestos are discovered in other countries, or unless adequate substitutes become available at competitive prices, thereby providing accepta ble options to the consumers. Crocidolite asbes tos will also be obtained from the Republic ol South Africa, and perhaps from Australia or Bolivia, so long as it remains competitive with chrysolite, but substitution is practicable in end uses, and continuation of crocidolite supply is not particularly signilicant. Demand for asbestos in the United States for domestic consumption in 1976 was 725,000 tons, about 17 percent of which came from domestic sources; most of the balance was obtained from Canada and the Republic of South Africa. Annual requirements for asbes tos in the year 2000 are not expected to exceed 2 million tons, the high of the forecast range (table I I). If the 1976 ratio of domestic pro duction to demand prevails in the year 2000, the domestic production component required to meet the maximum expected demand would be 340,000 tons. This production could be accomplished from known resources only by much more extensive use of the low-cost, veryshort-fiber Coalinga, Calif., material. Historical and projected domestic production and de mand for asbestos are shown in table 12 and figure 6. The trend projections for demand are low compared with the forecast range, which is caused mainly by the time periods chosen for the trend projections. The demand growth for asbestos has averaged about 1.0 percent per year from 1954 to 1973 and about 0.4 percent per year from 1956 to 1975. Possible Technological Progress Although asbestos was synthesized in the late I920's, and much work has been done since that time, an economical method of syn thesis has not yet been announced. Technology must come up with competitive synthetic asbes tos or asbesliform products and make them available in significant quantities before the end ol the century for world demand to be met. The mineral raw materials needed for production of synthetic asbestos and other inorganic fibers are abundant. Among the factors that should tend to in crease asbestos demand within the next decade is the newly developed potential for large-scale production of low-priced asbestos from domes tic deposits, which should in time spur research into new uses and into new ways to substitute Tabte 12.--Cotnparteon of domaatic aatiaatoa production and demand 1964-78, and po|acMd production In 2000 baaad upon historical trends (Thousand short tons) Y-, u.s. daman) Oamasftc producer 1964 1986 1986 1967 I960 1969 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1966 1966 1967 1966 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 724 762 729 724 665 754 709 666 726 724 613 796 606 721 617 764 734 759 609 976 949 606 729 46 45 42 43 44 46 45 S3 53 66 101 116 126 123 121 126 125 131 132 150 113 99 115 1966 2000 1 660 1.069 >216 *190 >310 *200 *fnmalsd. * Piobtfi torwMts fiom HMi 10. *20-yaarmL short-liber asbestos for the longer, more ex pensive types. The 1975 shortages drove some manufacturers to try such substitution with a degree of success. The domestic product is being used in asbestos-cement pipe and un doubtedly can be used in other products by adapting the production processes. Work is underway which is aimed at devel oping large-scale asbestos uses, even in the face of the shortages. Foremost among these is the potential for use in asphalt paving mate rials, which must bear up under various diffi cult conditions. Examples are airport runways and hangar areas, which are subjected to hightemperature, corrosive effects of jet exhausts; street curbing, which must be able to absorb shock and forces from the wheels of motor vehicles: and resurfacing of old roads. Resur facing requires about 35 tons of asbestos pet mile of 40-foot pavement and probably has the greatest potential for large-volume asbestos use. Technological changes in roadbuilding methods could result in capping new highways with asbestos-rich asphalt. Medical problems connected with asbestos have been under intense study in recent years and undoubtedly will continue to warrant in creasing attention in the future. In addition to study and medical treatment ol the effects of asbestos on the respiratory system, work should be aimed at improved methods lor protecting workers in mines, mills, and fabricating plants. Among the possibilities for solving the prob lems (in addition to medical study and treat ment) are much greater use ol automation where feasible, remote control ol fabrication CTD007150 ASBESTOS 17 processes, improved protective equipment and respiratory devices, and development and strict enforcement of safety procedures. Remaining Problems One of the most serious problems confront ing the domestic consuming industry is our dependence for the greater part of our supply of asbestos on foreign sources. About 85 per cent of the supply of chrysotile and all of the amosite and crocidolite comes from foreign countries. Complete dependence upon foreign supply lor strategic grades can be minimized by adequate stockpiles. Adequate information on the methods of mining and processing asbestos and develop ment of equipment is available, but cost data are lacking. Information is available on the principal end products in which asbestos is utilized: however, there is no information on the wastage that takes place in the manufactur ing of the end item. The number of materials that are economi cally competitive with asbestos is limited. Al though much research has been directed to synthesizing fibers that have properties similar to asbestos, it has met with only limited success. The development of practical technologic ad vances in this broad area would substantially improve the supply outlook. Health hazards are present in the whole sequence of mining, processing, and utilizing asbestos, and the expanding use of this mate rial demands continued attention to the prob lem. Asbestos is not an energy-intensive mineral; on the contrary, it has a long association with energy-conservation products. Nonetheless, en ergy-conservation practices need further devel opment in all phases of the mining, milling, and utilization of asbestos. Interior. Washington, D.C.: and Irom National Technical Information Service, Springtiled, Va , PB 261 151/AS. 3. Bowles, O. The Asbestos Industry. BuMines Bull. 552, 1955, 122 pp. 4. Burmeister, H L., and I. E. Matthews. Mining and Milling Methods and Costs. Vermont Asbestos Mines, Ruberoid Co.. Hyde Park, Vt. BuMines 1C 8068, 1962, 43 pp. 5. Campbell. W. J., R. L. Blake. L. L. Brown, E. E. Calher and J. J Sjoberg. Selected Silicate Minerals and Their Ashestilorm Varieties: Mineralogical Defini tions and Identification-Characterization. BuMines 1C 8751, 1977. 56 pp. 6. Cape Insulation & Asbestos Products Ltd. (London). Noramite: A New Concept in Plastics Reinforce ment. P. 7. 7. Cossette, M. Automation ol Asbestos Milling Circuits. Can. Min. and Met. Bull., v. 64, No. 608, April 1971, pp. 25-33. 8. Dayton, S. The Greatest Challenge: Growing in New America. Eng. Min. J., v. 177, No. 6, June 1976, pp. 92-98d. 9. Farrell, E. A. Asbestos. Min. Eng., v. 26, No. 2, February 1974, pp. 101-102. 10. Federal Register. V. 40, No. 51, Mar. 14, 1975, p. 11866. 11. Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd. (London). Sallil Fibres. P. 2. 12. Industrial Minerals (London) Asbestos. No. 28, January 1970, p. 12. 13. _____ Quebec to Assume Asbestos Control? No. 113, February 1977, p. 9. 14. Asbestos Alternatives. No. 109, October 1976, pp. 45-47. 15. Penner, P , and J. K. Spek., Stockpile Optimization: Energy and Versatility Considerations lor Strategic Materials. University ol Illinois, May 1976, 97 pp. 16. Quebec Asbestos Mining Association. Asbestos Pro ducer, June-July 1974, p. 15. 17. Tiphane, M. Asbestos in Quebec. Ministire des Richesses Natu relies du QuebEc. E.S.-I4, 1973, pp. 22-23. 18. Trauffer, W. E. Canadian Johns-Manville's Jeffrey Mine at Asbestos. Que. Pit and Quarry, v. 66, No. 9, March 1974, pp. 59-66. 19. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Economic Analysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines: The As bestos Products Manufacturing Industry. EPA-230/ 1-73-001, September 1973, 120 pp. 20. Vagt, G. O. Asbestos. Department of Energy, Mines, and Resources, Ottawa, Canada, Mineral Policy Se ries MR 155, July 1976, 26 pp. REFERENCES 1. Ampian, S. Asbestos Minerals and their Nonasbestos Analogs. Pres, at Microlibers Symp., Pennsylvania Slate University, University Park, Pa., Aug. 23-25, 1976, 11 pp; available Irom W. J. Campbell, Bureau ol Mines. College Park, Md. 2. Battelle Columbus Laboratories. Energy Use Patterns in Metallurgical and Nonmetallic Mineral Processing (Phase 7--Summary ol the Results ol Phases 4, 5, and 6). BuMines Open File Kept. 117(2)--76, 1976, 31 pp. Available lor reference at Bureau ol Mines libraries in Tuscaloosa. Ala., College Park, Md., Twin Cities, Minn., Rolla, Mo., Boulder City, Nev., Reno, Nev., Albany, Oreg.. Salt Lake City, Utah, and at the Central Library, U.S. Department ol the SOURCES OF CURRENT INFORMATION U.S. Bureai\ of Mines publications: Asbestos. Ch. in Commodity Data Summaries, 1977. Asbestos. Ch. in Minerals Yearbook,*1975. Asbestos. Annual Preliminary, Mineral Industry Surveys, 1976. Other sources: Company annual reports, 1976. Industrial Minerals, No. 93, June 1975. Engineering and Mining Journal. World Mining. INT.-eu.OF MINES,POH.,PA. 2ZSA6 CTD007151