Document MMO7y8VnOxrqYGn8QNvZMpe4z

m u im. Ji ppqppw^pwi * mn. .t i rl! ana'-rn LIA14307 * -- LEAD INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION, INC. t MADISON AVINU N(W VONK. N.T. 10017 nunWH-AAU MM III July 10. 1967 Subjecti Ntau(KturlD9 Onleaded Gasoline To Meadoers of the Lead Industries Association, Znc. Attached hsrsto is an excellent rnunury by L. C. Reap, Jr., Texaco, Inc., Beacon, N.Y. of what ve believe to be an important paper of particular interest to the lead industry. The paper, entitled *A Look at the Economics of Manufacturing Unleaded Gasoline* was presented at the 32nd Midyear Meeting of the American Petroleum Institute's Division of Refining. Mr. Keep's eosssents include soot of the pertinent points made in a 35-page paper prepared by 8. D. Lawson, Phillips Petroleua Co., Bartlesville, Okla.. J. P. Moore, Bonner and Moore Associates, Znc., Houston, Texas and J. B. Rather, Jr., Mobil Oil Carp., Mew York. M.Y. The paper, copies of which are available upon request to LXA, is a su--ary of the complete technical and economies report, consisting of several hundred pages, subedited to the American Petroleua Institute by Bonner and Moore Associates, Znc. Sincerely yours. DMBtSO Atti David M. Borcina Secretary, Treasurer .JSt.ll " nase ewepsa^ep mm w mmmmmmm I * LI A14308 r' iii > wiitdilnriie* I n nritilffiiW'nii ifl A LOOK AT THI KCOMOKZCS OT MABUfACTURIKO UNLEADED GASOLZMt ggHKPTCMI ; L. C. Kempt, Jr. Texaco Znc., Beacon, *.Y. The paper so ably presented by Mr. Dayton Lawson la an excellent summary of the data obtained in a carefully-planned and well-executed project. This work was undertaken by the API after * a wide range of estimates of the effect of lead antiknock compound l elimination on gasoline costs by government and private groupe bad \ been published. It seamed desirable to establish a reasonably raliable figure for such cost, and it is believed that the study has accomplished this. r Zt is perhaps advisable to note at this point that while this cost study was in prograss, additional hearings have been bald on the potential hasard of lead alkyl use in gasolines. To data there is no evidence that any such hasard exists or is likely to develop in the future. To keep the study within reasonable bounds it was necessary to base it on 1966 octane levele and 1966 state of the art of process technology. These and certain other factors need to be considered in evaluating the significance of the reported information as developed in the following discussion. ] Prom the standpoint of the antiknock quality of the fuels, it should be noted that road performance predictions based on the research + motor formula while applicable to leaded gasolines stay 2 not be reliable for use with completely lead free producte. This is a subject on which additional APZ work is now in progress. Also with respect to antiknock quality there is the vary obvious point that some further increase in octane levels would normally be expected to occur in future years. Such increases would either not occur with unleaded fuels or would be accomplished at exponentially increasing costs. * Presented at the Session on Fuels and Emissions During the 32nd Midyear Meeting of the American Petroleum Institute's Division of Aefining, in the Statler Hilton Hotel, Los Angeles, Calif., May 16, 1967. lymiWBi. B.imnimaew^Mws4Miiemwnmjwm^ ik N 3507.01 mmmm ... . V. .- .ij,------ .,***. mmmm m :*. ,.----- i ... .. LIA14309 m* ~4 me&iaiMam. ............. -.....................- -a- ............................................- -- 0 Zt la certainly true that tha coat incraaaaa which would raault from going to laad-fraa gasoline would provlda powerful in- cantlvaa to tha development of mora aconomic octana improving methods. Cartainly tha axcaaalva damand for olatinum required by tha uaa of 1966 tachnology would call for urgant work on a auitabla and mora availabla raforming catalyat. Conaidarabla time would, of couraa, ba required not only in raaaarch and development but In gatting guipnant daaignad and inatallad to oparata on any nav procaaa. Takan on a 1966 baaia and without conaldaration to tha affacts of aacalation, tha aatimatad lnvaataant coat of $4.25 billion la a ataggaring figura and rapraaanta about 42.5X of tha currant groaa investment in tha D.S. rafining equipment. 0.8. rafinlng equipment capital axpandituraa hava baan running about $400 ml11loo and, in fact, tha total capacity of tha 0.8. to conatruct procaaa equipment la aatimatad to ba $2.0 to 2.5 billion/yaar. It la thua avidant that aoma tima would ba raqulrad to provlda tha procaaaing nacaaaary to convart to completaly unlaadad fuala. Zt la furthar apparent that all segments of induatry including tha amall rafinara would ba facad with extensive problems if auch a converaion became nacaaaary. Zn addition to tha investment coats, caraful note should ha made of tha operating coats to tha consumer. The approx1mta 2 cants par gallon increase in tha cost of gasoline adds up to $1.5 billion par year to tha present TJ.S. purchases of gasoline. Furthar, tha greatly Increased value of tha aromatics as blending components for gasoline will result in a corresponding substantial increase in tha coat of these products when used as basic chemicals. All of this will ultimately show up in tha costs of consumer goods. A further factor involved is the increased consumption of crude which would be required. As noted this could ba in tha order of S%. Baaed on present damand, this coews to the very substantial figura of 500,000 bbl/day. All of this la to say that tha study has accomplished what it sat out to do and has given us a good overall figure for the costs of producing unleaded fuel. Zt is apparent that much individual conaldaration on tha part of each refiner would ba required in tha event that auch a move becomes mandatory and that the econoadc and performance affects could ba profound. ifciM m fcint im i hytiiii TT f