Document MJ8no2KO6w2nrNzYN6rvqyZgj

FILE NAME: Exxon (EXX) DATE: 1968 Oct DOC#: EXX045 DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION: Journal Article - Air Pollution: The Industrial Viewpoint - Journal of Occupational Medicine Air Pollution--The Industrial Viewpoint R. E. ECKARDT, M.D., Ph.D. it. I w ould like to say th a t industry oes recognize a ir pollution as a problem , that may not seem like a very profound state -!. b u t if w e go b a c k in h isto ry 10 or 15 y ears i not sure, w ere I on this podium then, that aid m ake such a statem ent. Of course, Donora, . th e fam o u s 1952 L o n d o n sm og, h a d o c c u rre d it was the general belief by people in indus that these were unusual and isolated events, c a n 't h a p p en h e r e " seem ed to b e th e p re v a il . attitude. The A m erican Petroleum Institute a a Sm oke and F um es C om m ittee, later to . called the A ir and W ater Conservation Com;tee. Initially this Com m ittee, w as alm ost ex liv e ly concerned w ith the control of pollution . ` m a refinery. It com piled m any useful encyclo, cctic-like volum es w hich offered d etailed inu ructions to the refinery operator on the control ' air and w ater pollution from his refinery. O ther trade associations had sim ilar com m ittees. In dividual plants m ay have had a person or a comn.utee w hose task it w as to see th a t a specific Plant did not so b a d ly p o llu te its im m e d ia te su r- Dr. E ck a rd t is D ire c to r, Medical R esearch D i v i sion, Esso Research and Engineering C o m p a n y , L i n den. New Jersey. Presented at the 53rd Annual Meeting of the In dustrial Medical Association, San Francisco, Calif . A p r il 22- 25, 1968. Journal of Occupational Medicine roundings as to result in com plaints from the local com m unity or communities. T hat general air pollution was the result of the use by hundreds of millions of people of the products of industry never entered the thoughts of such industry air pollution people. P erhaps this w as because every tim e air pollution becam e bad some official w ould appear on their doorstep dem anding th at the plant do som ething about its pollution of the air. We knew about fluoride pollution by sm elters, the g rit and grim e of pow er plants, the sm ell of re fineries, and the smoke of steel mills. This we thought and w ere told by air pollution control people was our problem . On this we concentrated. Today, things have changed. We are becoming m ore know ledgeable (Table 1). We know, for in TABLE 1 TO TA L U S A iR PO LLUTION BY S O U R C E -- 1966' 0/a/ Source Industry Power Plants Motor Vehicles Space Heating Refuse Disposal Tons/Yr 23,000,00 20,000,00 86 000 O O 8,000 OO 5,000 003 142,000,003 or Toial 16.2 14.1 60 6 5 o 3 S * T h e S ou rce s o* A i r Pollution and T h e ir C o n i ' : ! , Pub lic H e a th S e r v i c e P u b lic a tio n No. 154 8 ( 1 9 6 6 ' 577 A* Industrial Viewpoint--Air Pollution stance, that about 70% of the pollution is coming from the activities of you and me. Another 16% comes from industry, exclusive of power plants, and the remaining 14% comes from power plants. The American Petroleum Institute (API) now has a Committee on Air and Water Conservation which concerns itself almost exclusively with the problems which result from automobiles, power plants, and heating. A research effort amounting to about $2,000,000 per year has been mounted. Through the Coordinating Research Council (CRC), a joint effort of the API, the Automotive Manufacturers Association (AMA), and the Na tional Center for Air Pollution Control (NCAPC) of the Department of Health, Education, and Wel fare, another research effort amounting to $10, 000,000 over the next three years is being mount ed. The National Coal Association, in partnership with the Edison Electric Institute, has mounted a $2,500,000 research effort. The Manufacturing Chemists Association (MCA) has an Environ mental Health Committee. Many of the major oil and automotive companies today are making large research expenditures on their own (mine spends over $4,000,000 per year) and have a full time coordinator of air and water conservation. I am sure many other groups exist with which I am not familiar. I intend to slight no one, but rather do not mention them by name only out of ignorance and lack of time. The point is, however, that industry today is very aware of the nature of air pollution. I have heard it said on several occasions, "Why does industry spend so much on air pollution re search? Why don't they just use that money to control air pollution?" The quite simple answer to those questions is that industry is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to control its own air pollutants, but no one today is sure just how far it is necessary to control general air pollution, or how best to control it economically. Hence the research expenditures. It should be obvious to anyone that if humans are to continue to in habit this earth we can't have absolutely clean air. The problem, therefore, is to determine at what level, between zero air pollution on the one hand and the present-day air pollution on the other, air pollution needs to be controlled and how to control it. Many of you may have read alarmist articles in the popular press m aintaining th at our cities are becoming uninhabitable because of air pol lution. We in industry just do not quite believe that things are all that bad. Our reasoning partly 578 TABLE II CHICAGO SULFUR DIOXIDE LEVELS--ppm* Annual Month Day (Aver.) ( Max.) (Max.) Hour (Max.) 1962 1963 1964 1965 Average .1 1 .24 .40 .89 .15 .35 .79 1.36 .17 .34 .68 1.09 .13 .27 .55 1.14 .14 .30 .61 1.12 ` Regulation of Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Federal Facilities. U.S. Public Health Service, November 1966. TABLE III PHILADELPHIA SULFUR DIOXIDE Annual Month (Aver.) ( Max.) LEVELS-- ppm* Day Hour (Max.) ( Max.) 1962 1963 1964 1965 Average .09 .13 .35 1.03 .06 .15 .46 .85 .08 .15 .43 .69 .08 .13 .36 .94 .08 .14 .40 .88 *Regulation of Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Federal Facilities. U.S. Public Health Service, November 1966. resides in data published by the U.S. Public Health Service. Table II shows the SO2 data for Chicago from 1962-1965. I personally see no over all worsening trend in these data. Table III gives comparable data for Philadelphia. Again, if a worsening trend is present, it is not obvious to me. Table IV shows SO2 data for New York City from 1957-1965. Again, I can detect no consistent worsening trend over this nine-year interval. As a matter of fact' the 26 million tons total of SO2 emitted in the U.S. in 1966 is exactly the same as in 1945 due to sulfur reductions in gasoline, diesel fuel, and home heating oil, and the switch from coal to heating oil in private homes. Despite the alarmist predictions of doom, therefore, we in industry do not believe we are facing a crisis which demands precipitous action. We believe there is time to take a reasoned, rational course in air pollution control consistent with our tech nology and with ecomonics. Particularly do we think this is true since Dr. Austin Heller, Air Pollution Commissioner of New York City, was reported in The New York Times of November 29, 1967, as saying th a t th e su lfu r dioxide con centrations in New York City have decreased by as much as 50%. -fit There is much in the literature which purports October 1968 Volume 10 No. 10 TABLE IV NEW YORK SULFUR DIOXIDE LEVELS-- ppm* Annual Month Day (Aver.) (Max.) (Max.) Hour (Max.) .2 0 Not .55 2.0 Available .16 .58 1.3 .17 .64 1.2 .18 .91 1.4 .16 .69 1.4 .19 .71 1.9 .20 .85 1.5 .24 .71 1.9 .21 .68 2.3 .19 .70 1.7 julation of Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Fdral Facilities. zjblic Health Service, November 1966. ow the health effects of air pollution. I have this literature rather assiduously over the several years and must admit that I, as well any other capable people, remain far from zinced, with the exception of one aspect. I am zinced that the acute air pollution episode ; have an effect on health. Thus Donora, the use Valley, and London in 1952 and 1962 rather rly have established the fact that when a large ss of stagnant air sits over a city under an ersion layer for several days, excess deaths occur. The American Petroleum Institute ognized this fact several years ago and pro sed a plan to avert such episodes. Surprisingly s plan was pooh-poohed openly as a stalling tic, and no serious consideration was given to at that time.1 Even more surprisingly, this ; a n today, with some very minor modifications, is being or has been adopted by several cities, as if it were their own original idea. Now as far as the API is concerned, it really does not care whether or not it receives any credit for propos ing such a plan. But it would like to believe that when it proposes something, others would accept the fact that these propositions are serious and examine them carefully. When we begin to examine the data that have been put forth concerning the health effects of nonepisodic air pollution, we honestly state that we remain unconvinced. As an example, I would like to refer to a study of air pollution and urban morbidity reported by Sterling et al. in 1966.2 In this study 29,922 hospital admissions were studied in relation to air pollution. One comparison was made between numbers of patients with certain diseases admitted to the hospital and SO2 levels. Thus, they compared admission rates to the hos pital for the one-third of the days with the lowest Journal of Occupational Medicine Eckardt SO2 averages, with admission rates to the hospi tal for the one-third of the days with the highest SO2 averages. In looking over their table the authors were ". . . struck with the fact that the three high positive per cent differences in rates are for disease groupings of infectious diseases, acute uper respiratory infections, and bronchitis. None of the negative per cent differences reached anywhere near that level." I read that paper rather carefully and, at the suggestion of one of my engineering friends, I calculated the number of admissions for the one-third of the days with the middle SO2 levels. Figures 1, 2 and 3 represent ! cmLOWEST I 3 SO , CAYS ; I I "jviO O LC 1 3 SO , DAvS i 1 la y in g mcHEST 1 3 s o ? cays ' o 1200 - 1100 < < 1000 - 0 900 - Z 800" 1 700 - oL 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 - f 100 0 l T . D. Sterling a l. Arch. Environ. Health 158-170 Fig. 1. Hospital admissions by three disease groupings for days with lowest, middle and highest one-third SO, aver ages. Source: 68-10389 U'ban Morbidity and Air Pollution. (Aug. 1966). T . D. Sterling, et a l. Arch. Environ. Health 13: 158-170 Fig. 2. Hospital admissions by eight disease groupings for days with lowest, middle and highest one-third SO-, aver ages. 579 Industrial Viewpoint--Air Pollution 68-10388 Fig. 3. Hospital admissions by nine disease groupings for days with lowest, middle and highest one-third S 02 aver ages. the number of hospital admissions for each of 21 disease categories discussed by the authors. Each of these charts show that for the middle onethird SO2 days the number of admissions to hos pital for every single one of the disease categories mentioned by Sterling et al.2 exceeds the number of hospital admissions for either the lowest or the highest one-third SO2 days. In some cases this excess is quite large and far greater than the differences between high and low SO2 days. It is quite possible that health effects are produced by nonepisodic air pollution, but it is not clear from data of this type that this has been conclusively demonstrated, or that we can learn from such data, at what level such effects may occur and, therefore, to what level we need to control air pollution. I would like to turn next to the famous Nash ville studies; these have been reported.3'5 Basi cally what these studies show is that mortality is severely affected by socio-economic status, but inconclusivly affected, if at all, by air pollution. Figure 4 shows the relationship between selected respiratory diseases and socio-economic status. The consistency of the pattern, with the exception of lung cancer is, to me, overwhelming. The lower the socio-economic status, the higher the mortality from disease. Conversely, the situation when socio-economic class is held constant and air pollution is varied is far less convincing (Fig. 5). Thus, in many cases the mortality from a disease went up when the air pollution was lowered. Look at the situation with 24-hour SO2 levels and total respiratory disease mortality. In addition, although not significantly different, the mortality 580 TOTAL RESPIRATORY i J i I i t i l : SOj SOILING OUSTFALL 24HR. SOj INFLUENZA and PNEUMONIA m UPPER (O C3 WOOLS LOWER JV CLASS SELECTED RESPIRATORY T5- r i. SOj r i . r i . r i . SOILING OUSTFALL 24HR.SO] BRONCHITIS and EMPHYSEMA u j J . S O j SOILING OUSTFALL 24HR, SO] LUNG and BRONCHIAL CANCER M SO j SOILING OUSTFALL TUBERCULOSIS 24 HR.SO] U h SOj SOILING H U DUSTFAU. 24HR.S0] : JJU 11 SO j SOILING OUSTFALL SO] Fig. 4. Adjusted death rates!1000,000 for respiratory dis eases by socio-economic class. (Source: Zeidberg, L. D. et al.: Arch Environ Health, 15:214-224, August 1967.) TOTAL RESPIRATORV tS O j uSOILING iOUSTFALL 24HR.SO] INFLUENZA and PNEUMONIA I HIGH ____ a J CEO MODERATE t POLLUTION low SELECTEO RESPIRATORY |k f|c f|cLU SOs SOILING OUSTFALL 24 HR.SO] BRONCHITIS and EMPHYSEMA k k k k SO ] SOILING OUSTFALL 24HR.SO] LUNG and BRONCHIAL CANCER K k k k SO] SOIL!NO OUSTFALL 24 HR SO] TUBERCULOSIS ^ T T r M M . SOj SOILING OUSTFALL 24 H R SO] lb t k i t SOj SOILING OUSTFALL 24HR SO] Fig. 5. Adjusted death rates!1000,000 for respiratory dis eases among middle class population. (Source: Zeidberg, L. D. et al.: Arch Environ Health, 15:214-224, August, 1967.) from bronchitis and emphysema, for all four measures of air pollution, was higher in the low pollution zone than in the moderate pollution zone. Figure 6 shows that comparable data also exist for cardiovascular disease. With the excep tion of arteriosclerotic heart disease, the inverse relationship between all types of cardiovascular disease and socio-economic status is quite con sistent. When socio-economic status is held con stant (Fig. 6) the relationship between cardio vascular disease and air pollution is far less October 1968 Volume 10 No. 10 Eckardt which might bear further investigation. The data for air pollution also are not particularly con sistent. This is a conclusion also reached by the authors who presented these data. By now, you are probably convinced that I am opposed to air pollution control. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, if my management were sitting beside me today you would have seen a smile pass over their faces because I am always prodding them to do more in the air pollution data for other cancers in Nashville in relation to socio-economic status and air pollution. The data control field. But I do not believe there is a crisis at hand, and I do believe that consistent steady progress in control is being made. Figure 10 shows the sulfur oxide emissions on a per cent of 1965 emissions basis for the New CM O tO M SCULM DISEASES * R + GENERAL ARTERIOSCLEROSIS UPPER CLASS CCB MIOOLE CLA SS C D l o w e r c l a s s I . 6. Adjusted death rates/100,000 for cardiovascular dis i s by socio-economic class. (Source: Zeidberg, L. D. et 0 Arch Environ Health, 15:225-236, August 1967.) ci nvincing because, in many cases as measures of air pollution decrease, cardiovascular diseases in crease. For cancer, the situation seems considerably more confused. For lung cancer, as shown in Figures 4 and 5, there seems to be no relationship between either socio-economic status or air pollu tion. This is probably due to the fact that smoking of cigarettes probably overpowers any other fac tor in the incidence of this disease. In fact, at a recent meeting of experts in epidemiology from all over the world held in New York City by the N. Y. Academy of Sciences, a statement was made that a growing body of data suggests that general air pollution is not a significant factor in the eti ology of lung cancer. The statement went uncon tested by the group. Figures 8 and 9 show the for socio-economic status show no consistent pat tern but do show some interesting variations Journal of Occupational Medicine SO , SOILING OUSTSALL SO , OTHER MYOCAROIAL DEGENERATION R * IS S O , SOILING OUSTSAU SO, POLLUTION Fig. 7. Adjusted death rates/100,000 for cardiovascular dis eases among middle class population. (Source: Zeidberg, L. D. et al.: Arch Environ Health, 15:225-236, August 1697.) 581 Industrial Viewpoint--Air Pollution A L L CANCER n- n STOMACH CANCER n SO S04UNG o u sm u . 24HRSO ESOPHAGUS CANCER SO SOILING o u sm u 24HR90 LARGE INTESTINE CANCER SO SOILING OUSTNUI 24HRSO PROSTATE CANCER SO SOILING o u sm u 24NRSO OLAOOER CANCER _ mS] incidences. It has recognized the health effe of acute episodes and proposed a method of o r cumventing these episodes. This method, or mo fications of it, is now being adopted by cer cities and regions and should ensure the el tion or minimizing of such episodes in the futu After all, even though we do not understan fully exactly what happened in Donora, th has never been a second episode in Donora. Industry does believe that where effects oth. than health are involved, such as plant damage eye irritation, odors, poor visibility, corrosion, etc targets should be set which recognize the tech nologic ability to achieve them, the costs involve to achieve them, and the benefits to be desire Thus, to reduce sulfur in heavy fuel oil to one per cent will cost huge sums in refinery capit investment. Further, to plan, design, construe and put into operation the new refining facilities! to accomplish this will require a lag time of three , to four years. To require one per cent sulfurj SO SOIUNC OUSTFAU. 24HR.90 UPPER CLASS MIOOLE CLASS [ I LOWER CLASS SO SOILING OUSTVAU 24NR90 A LL CANCER STOMACH CANCER .. Fig. 8. .Adjusted death rates/lOOflOO for cancer by socio economic class. (Source; Hagstrom, R. M. et al.: Arch En viron Health, 15:237-248August 1697.) SO , SOILING OUSTFAU 2 . HASO, SO , SOILING OUSTFAU MtNfc V. York City area. The dotted lines represent the ESOPHAGUS CANCER LARGE INTESTINE CANCER over-all U.S. projections for sulfur oxides by the U.S. Public Health Service. New York has been used, since it represents one of the worst areas s*~ in the U.S. for sulfur dioxide pollution. I think this Figure shows that far greater progress is anticipated than the most optimistic predictions of the U.S. Public Health Service. This degree of SO , SOILING OUSTFAU. H U SO , SO , SONJNS OUSTFAU * ** * *>'**' "4 progress is most heartening. Similar progress is . it,.*. being made in the automotive field. PROSTATE CANCER B L A M E R CANCER If I were to attempt to summarize what my position, and presumably my industry's position, is on air pollution control, it would be somewhat n as follows: If health effects are produced by air pollution, industry would go along with the con cept that more vigorous efforts and higher ex SO , SOILING OUSTFAU MHRSO, SO , SOILING OUSTFAU H * * 1 penditures for air pollution control are warranted. To date, however, based on evidence similar to that presented to you in this paper, industry is not convinced that air pollution, other than dur ing an acute episode, has a significant deleterious effect on general health or on specific disease Fig. 9. Adjusted death rates/100,000 far cancer among die class population. (Source: Hagstrom, R. M. et al.: " rc Environ Health, 15:237-248, August 1967.) ' 582 October 1968 Volume 10 No. I i 4 I 05 o Metropolican New York SOt emissions compared 'SPHS predictions. i lext month would be impossible, except in ; ' limited areas. If the requirement were for i 1971, this target could probably be met. In i my parent company has just recently an1 ced that it is investing over $100,000,000 in 1 refinery to bring the New York area the low s r fuel it desires in 1970-1971. A few years 0 this would not have been possible because tl technology was just not available. Making 0- sulfur oil in this plant is possible but it is mado more expensive than to make one per cent. Further, coal could probably not meet the 0.3% suifur limitation, and as yet no demonstrably satisfactory stack gas desulfurization process has developed beyond the pilot plant stage. Even if a satisfactory stack gas desulfurization process were available, it would take time to build such plants and put them into operation. Do we really need 0.3% sulfur fuel or its equivalent in stack gas desulfurization, or will the one per cent level be adequate? Industry believes we should control stepwise, measuring the benefits as we go along. Adequate cost-benefit analyses could then be made to see if the non-health benefits obtained are worth the costs that will be required. If you estimate the cost of control devices on automobiles at $20.00 per car, then they will have cost the American public over $200,000,000 by the end of 1968, and an equivalent amount each year thereafter. Thus in ten years, when it is estimated Journal of Occupational Medicine Eckardt that all cars driven will have such devices, the cost will have been over $2,000,000,000. Additional controls which will lower levels of exhaust emis sions even more may cost four-five times this amount, the total estimates over ten years amount ing at the present time to $8,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 more. The necessity for such addi tional devices should be evaluated as we go. If we do not really need them, should the public be asked to put them on their cars anyway? The public might prefer to spend these billions of dollars--if not really needed--in other ways-- perhaps education or urban improvement. Industry believes that realistic targets should be established which take into account these costs and technologic feasibility. As our technology advances, these costs may be further reduced and we may feel we can afford more controls. To es tablish goals or targets today that are excessively costly or technologically not feasible does not appear to be a sound objective. Since there does not appear to be any clear-cut crisis, as I have tried to show, it appears that a reasoned rational course in air pollution control should be adopted. Such a course would take cognizance of the state of technology available at the time, the economics of achieving the air quality we all desire, and the lead time necessary to achieve this. Such an approach will bring us closer and more quickly to our desired goals in air quality than will an ir rational or emotional crash program. Let us continue to move, but move together toward reasonable goals. Post Office Box 45 Linden, New Jersey 07036 References 1. M ouber, Sy: API Proposal--Is It a Stall? Air Con ditioning, Heating, and Ventilating, 63:18-31, February 1966. 2. S terling, T. D.; P hair, J . J .; P ollock, S. V .; S chumsky, D. A. and DeGroot, I.: Urban Morbidity and Air Pol lution. Arch Env Health, 13:158-170, August 1966. 3. Zeidberg, L. D.; H orton, R. J. M. and L andau, E.: The Nashville Air Pollution Study V. Mortality From Dis eases of the Respiratory System in Relation to Air Pol lution. Arch Env Health, 15:214-224, August 1967. 4. Z eidberg, L . D.; H orton, R. J . M. and L andau, E .: The Nashville Air Pollution Study VI. Cardiovascular Dis ease Mortality in Relation to Air Pollution. Arch Env Health, 15:225-236, August 1967. 5. H agstrom, R. M.; S prague, H. A. and L andau, E.: The Nashville Air Pollution Study VII. Mortality from Can cer in Relation to Air Pollution. Arch Env Health, 15:237-248, August 1967. 583