Document MGjxvGon49QNmgvvZgvNGxrgy

LIA15944 FREE WORLD LEAD AND ZINC DEMAND PRESENT AND FORECAST BY A- OLAF WOLFF Vic* President, Research and Corporate Development The Consolidated Mining A Smelting Company of Canada Limited Presented ati JOINT SESSION LEAD INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION & AMERICAN ZINC INSTITUTE ANNUAL MEETING ; CHICAGO, ILLINOIS 3 April 26-30, 1965 Printed In Csnsds e wmwiwpjeiwmiw^B^RwegMijmii n.m nw.mtu !' < sei^'i, i iwn''1* ^ j u -- u p" i- A iiiirt ip 111 wfiirtnSs.Br. s.V ;nrnu mi w;iHi.i.!ymjr^.jiWii!Bi 1 LIA15965 -naa.vffil Mate* Sll. -- li I- in A. Olaf Wolff nil wotu LEAP AMD tine DPIAHP - nttSDTC AKD F0KECA5T A* hu already been mU o d several occos loos, 1964 ssUlllsM record levels of contraption for both lead and sloe with as tel prices at their highest for a number of years, rsfleet log an extraordinary tight supply situation. This is an ideal cine, while still flushed with the euphoria of the current astal prosperity and before we again slide lacs the slough of despondency called oversupply, to exaains the structure of the world's demand for these products - all the better to prepare us for Che future. Perhaps the aost significant Indicator of how closely the industry has allied in the past few years is the fact that here we are this aornlng consiaers and producers together - rationally discussing the present supply and deaand situation and venturing to peer into the future. To ay knowledge this is the first tiae that such an leportent eegnent of the industry has openly and foTthrightly endeavoured to examine the overall picture. We aay find that thle will becoam a regular feature of these Trade Association eatings. before describing the current situation in detail and certainly before we dare to look into the future, you Bay be interested in the sta tist leal background information framing our present position. One of the interesting things that has happened since World War II Is the apparent acceleration in the rate of consunptlon of lead and sine. During the decade of the fifties, free world consumption of load - with its ups amd downs Increased at an annual average rate of about 21. However, mow - la the first half of the 1960`s - this consumption is increasing at tbs rata of about 61, while in 1966 Itself lead demand rose 61 above the previous year. (Chart l.) This acceleration is due in part to the fact that we have had eustatned annual incTsassa In fre* world consumption from 195S uninterrupted by the type of slackening in demand that occurred in 1932 and again in 1938 itself. In the overall 14-yaar period lead consrmrptlon has risen from two million tons in 1930 to 2.9 million tons In 1966. I should point out that all lead statistics throughout this paper will In clude secondary materials and. In accordance with Worth American practice, weights are in short tom*. The tine picture (Chart 2.) shows a similar patten of accelerat ing demand although perhaps somewhat mors dramatically than does that for load. On the average, consumption rose (n titr 1930'* by about 31 annually; for the first half of the 1960's by 61, then in 1966 Itself by 91. Ac can be seen, total free world sine consumption Increased from 2 million tons In 1930 the same level as lead to ever 3.3 millloo tons la 1966. Please note in particular the exponential uplift of thia consumption curve sines tha iat* 1930'*, uccalsratlag sharply in the last two year*. , r S b nWr-rtr.' 'I'm LIA159A6 - 2- A. 01*1 Wolff If o m were to Nki quick projection fra th#** figures, so* could properly conclude thst for the pretent decode, the 1960'i, total free world lead conttraptlon should Increase at the rate of around 41 par year, while tine should Increase at the rate of around 31, but v* will coat to that In greater detail later on. In the meantime, what I *m try Ing to do here Is to shake us loos* fraw the traditional thinking about the Tata at uhleb demand for theta two metals It increasing. So many of us In the industry are used to thinking in the 21 to 31 annual growth rata range - the long term projection - that w* have difficulty accepting the fact that markets for our atodgy old product* have lncraaeed at a wary respectable pace within recent hlatory. Let'* pause for Just a moment to relate percentage growth rates to actual .on*'--ptlons. The old rule-of-thumb says that If you divide the figure ?w by the annual compounded growth rat* you will determine the otmber of year* In which consumption Is doubled. Thus, at a compound Incrcaa* of 61 par year, metal consumption is doubled over 12 years, and at 91 over 8 years - that Is what could happen to lead and sine respec tively If the 1964 Increase were sustained. Lest we become too complacent, however, U 1* salutary to its whst Is happening elsewhere. In Chart 3 are shown remarkable increases In the usee of aluminum and plastics as coetpsred to our own metals. Slmca I960, aluminiB hss grown at the rste of 101 annually and plattlct at the rate of almost 131 per year - this latter representing a doubling of dmisnd every 3 years! While both aliaalmas and plastics do conpet* with many other sraterials, there It little need to remind this audience of the sharp Impact of these products - individually and in combination on lead and sine. For a while we were nearly overcome by the surge of events depleted by this Chart, but it la Interesting to note how we teemed to have gained strength In the past six years - as we have learned to capitalise on the distinctive characteristics of our metala. (everting hack to lead and sine, we come to the question of where tba recent growth In consumption hat taken piece. For lead (Chart 4.), It has taken place In every pert of the world but th# United States. Host noticeably hat Europe became a very large user of lead and Its dmaand ha* increased by something over half a million tone In th* fourteen year* slxsca 1930. About th* tame rate of Increase ha* been taking place la most of the world other than Japan. This particular regional breakdown was chosen because It Illus trates seversl stages of metals use. Th* United states, well deserving of the title of th* leading lead and sine conswing nation In th* world, hat a per capita demand of 11 lbs. of lead and 12^ lb*, of tine, 301 greater than any other region. Tet, despite Its larg* annual require ment of each metal, lta demand appear* to be etatlc. It spawned th* sophisticated usee of thete metala several decades ago adapting them to th* automotive and appliance economy to which It gave leadership. A. Olaf Wolff 9 Wow the United States la holat with lea own technology pa lord. The aaca chat vara born yesterday of an advanced technology, Ala today by tha earn* mean*. It nay tbus hava raachad a demand platmau - a saturation laval. Until quite recently, Europe'* load and line demand foot* waa hlatorlcal - on thosa uaaa which wars provan by tradition. This la raflactad In land and line roof a, an application unique to Europe. However, now Europe la moving rapidly toward tbs automotive - and appllaaca aconony of tha United States, and so long as traditional uaaa do not fads fatter than the aedern uaaa arias, tha natal a ai oiiimj of this area should ran aIn dynanlc. Japan la tha upstart. follmlng World War II It had virtually no established pattern of lead/ilac consumption. Starting alaoat iron scratch, its only dimension In aratal uaa waa what products it could sail either at banc ot abroad. And as both Its domestic and axport acononlaa spurted forward, ao did Its lead and line demand. As can ha seen. It now ranks anong tha leading consuming nations of tha world - fifth In lead, aacood la sine. Tha view for sine (Chart S.) again la fairly self-explanatory except for tha surprising magnitude of tha Increase in tha area desig nated "other world". Also surprising la tha fact that of the over half aillllon tons of sloe usad In this grouping of countries la 196* la excess of (01 of It waa uaed by only four countries - Australia, Canada, India and Brasil. Significantly, tha first three together with Mexico taka up tha same percentage of "othar world" laad. let ua turn now to a sort detailed examination of tha Individual demand trend* In each of thea* market araaa. With over on* million ton* of annual consunptloQ of each metal, United State* represents a market for wall over one-third of the total world production. In thl* country, aa la wall known, both lead and tine ar* tlad to tha automoblla. for simple easy-to-remanbar relationships you can aiaimt that about one-helf of tha laad and about one-third of tha sine sold bera and up la motor vehicle*. first for a look at lead. The dominant position occupied by load for bacteria* and laad In anti-knock compounds la evident from Chart t. Together they take 640,000 tone, or about tvo-thlrda of total D.S. laad. In an attapt to determine If ther* la any relationship between than* coma imp dona and motor vehicle registration* wt drew Chart 7. Aa can b* seen, tha correlation ha* not been too bad since about 1938, both curvaa rising at about tha same slop*. However, prior to that tins tha offset of upgrad ing gaaolln* by tha platforming process and tha Impact of tha 12-volt battery on laad -onstmptlons distorted tha alignment. W* should rsmambar that ther* are betCsrlta and anti-knock co*q>ounds made for othar than motor vehicle*, and that there la a 10X exportation of anti-knock production from the United States, al' of &*ch mask o perfect graphical correlation. Comorally speaking, however, with the rlal-g car population a favourable out look la indicated for lood requirement*. ....... mm .Mmmrnfmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmvmmmmfmmm LIA15946 a-;.:: afc,.-.;v......: i>SiLx^k- tflrii) llifi Uli'nimaaatdi iO A. OUf Wolff Pros Chart 6 we taw that 198,000 Con* of lead were uaed for alloy*. It ahould be pointed out that the automotive Industry taka* roughly one-third of this for body and radiator solder* - and that complete* the story on automotive lead use*. In the Industrial construction field, lead ha* a variety of applications. Including caulking, trap* and bend*, waterproof nambranea and, more recently, sound Insulation. An Increasing awareness of sound control 1* cresting a rather promising new market for thin sheet load. In Canada, where we are diligently trying to promote lacd for sound Insulation, we can see an ultimate potential of about 3,000 tons a year In the office movable partition field, assuming that all movable parti tions were to contain lead. If this Is factored by tan, it suggests a consumption of around SO,000 tons a year In thl* one use alone la tha United States. Of course this rate of penetration will not be achlevnd and the near term prospect might be for a use of 10,000, or even 20,000, tons a yesr. Thl* also suggests that market development is a long, arduous task and, while no one will deny the long-term hop* for lead la sound.attenuatlon, auny year* of hard work lie ahead of us before this application represents a market equivalent to some of the current major use* - such a* present sml-flnlshed or plguent uses, both of which emceed 100,000 tons per year. tccently the National Sport* Shooting Foundation has been promoting the Ides of hunting preserves. In addition, the gun and smmr.ltIon manufacturers have been promoting franchlsad gun clubs for skeet and trap shooting. Their efforts are reflected la the consmep i tloa Increase of lead In smunltlon from a 50,000 tons In 1963 to 56,500 tons In 1964, a surprising 131 increase. Turning to sine in th* United States (Chart 6.), at you know dls casting It th* largest single outlet, accounting for over 601 of th* United States' us*. Of the nearly half a million tons used in 1966, about 751 went Into the automotive Industry. This la illustrated la Chart 8, which Indicates th* steady Increase In sine tons consumed and pounds per passenger car since 1960, which coincides with tbs Intro duction of the compact car. Tou may also recall that la the late 1950'a difficulties with the performance of platings on tine die castings tMporarlly steered designers away from tine, but Intensive research, originally sponsored by the American Zinc Institute and later HOiO, produced superior plating systems. These plating difficulties, com : bined with a shift In public deawnd for compact cars In 1959, resulted la the sharp dedlna In 1960, but since then the trend has been steadily upward. Another Interesting consumption area 1* tha field of galvanised these for th* auto Industry. In 1964 this industry constated 650,000 toms of sheet - 151 of th* total galvanised sheet production In tha United States. Chart 9 shows how tbs market hat grown rapidly from some 90,000 A : .i-'npgmi Jmm LIA15949 3 ---------* >. ffn',,1 yririfr A. Oiaf Wolff tons Id 1955 to Its present sUs. Ones egsls this Is typical exponentlsl growth curvt sod represents a bright spot fu the Industry. It la 1 estimated that In this present year aboat ome-third of all American car production will haws unltlsed body construct Us. dosplta tha return la scow aodels to the traditional body and fraoo constrwctloa. Looking ?a ahead wa caa expect Increased tine cssaaftlst by tha automotive Industry In this area, particularly If tha Industry adopts eat side coatli^s. Incldeetslly. the factor normally used la converting tons of galvaniaad U*t ta tana af alee la about 61, or one-Severntoemth. The e*aJ laigast sine narket in the On1tad States la galeaalsia (sea CVa*I .), cooeimlng cloe to 401 of tha total consumption, f thick aneel gslvnaltlng accounts l'or over one-haIf of this again. Tha coat Hi .V. I galvanising line has played a large part in the develop ment af galvoettvd sheet applications. There are presently 33 lines la eperetlaa and 3 m<ir construction compared with only two at the end of World wot II. hn--lag at about 4-1/3 million tons, animal mill shipments of galvoaiood ameal are mote than double those of the late 1940's. Even tha hoi dip gel veal sera, who ware hard hit by tha early Impact of con tinuous sheet 1 lees. are beginning to bounce back with a vengeance. It was plessaat sees, ladiad, to read recently that the "hot dippers'* aspect a 501 tasreaee la slat uee over tha next 4-year period - and at that they nay ha isawinilw If sees of the prospects for galvanised structurals and at 11 tty iee eats should catch on. Let's direct oar attention for a few moments to tha European scene. as we have seen previously (Charts 4 and 5.), Europe la now the largest teewiig area for both lead and sine. In one respect, Europe and tha Pal ted Hates have really changed places. In 1950, tha United States ceae--4 half tha free world's laad and sine and Europe, recoverlag from the war, took about one-third Those ratios are now nearly teve reed with the Onltad States dropping to one- third and Europe rising to 401. The potter* of end-uee consiaptlon In Europe appears to ba alowly novl^ toward llwt of tha United States, in large measure, of course, due to the growing motor vehicle production. Tha most significant fact to ba considered In forecasting demands Is tha anticipated doubling of motor vehicle registrations la the United Kingdom, France, West Cermany aad Italy between 19b) end 1970 to over 60 allllon vehicles. A correspond ing doubling In battery lead constseptloa by 1970 has been sstlsmtad by others lor these four countries alone and. of course, matching Increases La aatl-knock compound aad sine dla casting coesiaeptloae. ha these demands are fait, we caa expect some shifts ta pro duction as Is now taking place in anti-knock compounds. Germany, which has heretofore Imported all its anti-knock materials from England, will soon be producing Its own and It will become a lead-consuming market for this use. Creeca is following a similar pattern. .. ' u j #' yic - 3 i Is hull (Chart 10), lead (or cable li still thi ltl|ii( outlet for load la Europe, accounting for nearly 301 of the total coastxaptloa. This application Ui hold op veil la coatraot to the situation la the United States, where, during the early lMO'a, high prices, abort supplies sad a changing technology resulted la sub stitutes . In Europe, despite tone inroads by plastics, lead la still regarded as an excellent sheathing Mterlal, particularly Acre tba highest standards arc required, as la the cross-channel power cable between the United Kingdom end Prance. A radical change It unlikely within tba next few years. While batteries are now in second place, la view of the expected rise la autoaoblle population there la little doubt that batteries will be established as the largest outlet by 1970. Lead sheet and pipe are still used to an appreciable extent la Europe, accounting for something like 131 of the total eoastaptloa, but this consvaption has not been keeping pace with tba rata of Increase la construction, in part, due to difficulty la securing properly trained personnel. Methods designed to reduce the Mount of field work are re quired such as would occoapony nore intensive nethoda of prefabrication. On the tine aide (Chart 10.), the largest outlet fox tine la still brass, consuning about one-third of total coasteeptloo. Galvaniz ing le right behind It but, unlike the United States, European auto manufacturers have not yet been convinced of the merits of galvanised sheet. Increasing use of salt on European highways, coupled with hatter corrosion resistance requirements for exports to North America, are feetore which could Influence the European auto makers to use more galva nised sheet. The growing number of continuous gslvenlslng lines and the trend to prtfsbrteat Lon in the construction industry era favourable signs which could make galvanizing the largest outlet for zinc in the future. As most of you know, rolled sine le Europe's third largest sine outlet but, af in the case of lead in construction, skilled workers are getting scarce and this traditional usa may not keep pace with ether applications, such as dls castings, which era rising quickly in thalr popularity in Europe. Again, with growing automobile registrations, we can expect Increased consumption In the Continental Countries. Tbs die casting sterket in the United Kingdon and Europe, perhaps more then any other, is the one that expressed concern over the recant Instability and high level of sine prices. JAPAN The remarkable thing about Japan la not Its present constasptloa levels of lead end sine, which era about 61 and 111 respectively of world consumptions, but the dramatic rata at which these consumption* era grow ing. In only five years, since 1939, lead coesustptlon has more them doubled end mow ranks fifth among individual countries in the world, Xa tha same time zinc constasptloa also doubled, end Japan now ranks ti the second largest individual consurn log country behind tha United Stats*. AS wa have noted with plastics, a doubling of consumption In that period of tlsw represents roughly 131 rate of increase each year. jipniu wm. 9k . f J -- *} ilitialiillly1)iWl~llA*-i 8iiil'Wii^llill~#rtM'lll rililln e-sassy^e.*. ipi *<1|H1UK. fP1 LIA15951 Btta* MMUkMhiSSiMhW iWfkfk in id Jftiii * asdiWsam - 7- A. Olef Wolff Expanding auto production hot boon a major contributing factor. In tha lata 1950'a, tba Japanese auto oarkat began to bloaaco and alnea 1960 export 00x1(010 havo baan developed. Chart 11 shows tha rapid rlaa la production of cart, truck* and buaaa. Increasing Iron a llttla under ooa-half nllllon units In 1960 to alaoat too nllllon la 1*64, making Japan now the fifth lergtet notor vehicle Manufacturer la tha uorld. The recant rlaa of exports la aery Incarnating - Japaaeoo core are bo s s appear* tag La North doer lea aa well aa Southeast Asia. Aa expactad, than, for lead tha largest growth haa boon la etoraga batteries, and Japan now conmmes about 37,000 tons for this and use (Chert 12.). Potential uaa La atlll large, aa the ratio of replace* ant to now batteries la only now about one to one, coopered to the throo or four to one of tha wore nature automobile sconce las of tha Dnltad gtatas and Suropa. 1963 notor vehicle registrations were about 3% allltou and Indications are that by 1970 they will be at 6 nillloa. lead for cabin sheathing la tha second largest uaa la Japan and la tha peat flaw years this coasuuptloa haa also doubled. 1stlastsa Indi cate that Japan will bacons tha largest user of lead for cable sheathing by 1970. A considerable anount of aaw lead extrusion equipment haa bean Installed la aacaat years and production of all types of cable la iacreae* lag. A radical change la unlikely within the aaxt few yams. Per alec (chart 12), galvanizing la by far the largest outlet, accounting for about 601 of total aloe consumption. Aa ws shall see later, this la tha largest Individual proportional uaa for clac for any of tha areas w are exaolnlng. Centmption now stands at a wary respectable 233,000 tone a year, which accounts for a per capita zinc demand aa high as Europe's. Japanese galvanising la concentrated la the fields of sheet sad atrip, which reflects the uany applications for sheet In tha coaatructioa Industry. Strangely, Japan exports approximately one-third of its galvanised sheet production to other Asiatic countries and even to the United States: tluc die casting and brass Manufacture run vary poor seconds la alec dsaiand In Japan, but tha forssr, la particular. Is a rapidly growing ssarkat and with tha potential for further Incressea due to the expanding automobile and appliance Industrial. You nay have noticed recently that Japan Ola Casting Export Company will ha formed (presumably with govara* ant support) to promote exports of Japanese die castings, particularly to EEC countries. With characteristic Japanese enthusiasm end thorough ness, wa can expect this activity to reflect a much larger sine coneiaptloa a few yaara hence, the growing significance of labour and cost savings to tha Japanaaa secondary Industry should not be overlooked la forecestlqg metal d-naodt, particularly clac la die castings. All la all, with Japan's expanding economy and sons experts claim It will be tbs second lergest to Ihe United States In tha early 1970'e and with foundations for a large motor vehicle Industry already laid, ossa would have to say that the outlook for further Increases la both aw tele 1a Japan la. Indeed, favourable. wf wu mwaMW!** *h w "arm -1 r r H I i'O t )fc. r - JJ > jMJ JPPJ insanfcAUBiiMah LI ^2595^ A. Olaf Wolff I This la as appropriate tlaa Co ub mention of the niter radfcal change in the Japanese situation within the pait faw awifb. Por tba flrat ti-- la decade, Japan la now an exporter of stae. TUa la primarily a supply actuation with Japaneae aloe prodactlon haring Increased by 15t over the peat 12-month period alone. The compound effect of thla greatly Increased production and a temporary levelling off of consumption led to the aurpiaa petition. The fact that alac natal price* wera highly attractive la other aarkata, each aa tha United States, nads poaaihle tha economics of thla bo --area. i % WOULD tio-pa PATTOK So far we have talked about the Individual area rtmem*ptt-- pattern#, not lat'a put thaw ell together and eee whet kind ef a picture we get. Tha flrat (Chart 13), above the difference la con Mnptlooa la tha three najor areaa for land for a recant alagle year, hare wa aae alnllarltlea le end-uea pattern* between turepa end Jap-- ea contrasted to tha United States. Tha proportion of load seed la cabla naau/actura and la aanl-fIcishad product*, such aa ahaat and pipe, are the n la tha flrat *aud area*, la the Deltad State* we not* ageIn tha praaonlnasca of hcttarla* and anti-knock conpounda and la son* alloy*, all af which contribute Co tha --to--tins field. t- S> Taking the uorld a* a whole, there have bane aa-- significant shift* In lead use* In only the paat 29 >Jb*. Pt Io t to World War Q the najor outlet for lead world wld# wa* Xla sheathing, followed la order hy sheet end pipe, pig--nts, end fUally better lee. Today bat teries are well out le front, teeing 301 of the total lead tmaf tlaa throughout the world, with cable In se^SDd place at 201. It ta later al ting to note the significant plac* lead anti-knock confound* now hold a use developed only forty year* ago and vhich now conauaaa abowt 101 of the free world leed. The conpereble tine chert 14 la rather interesting because all three areas have slightly different consunptlon pattern*. A* discussed, die casting la predominant In the United States with galv--lalng the second Important najor uae. In Europe galvanizing and brass are tha hay uses, and In Japan, aa previously noted, galvanizing Is away out la ft--t of the other nearest uses bras* and dla casting. : Once again It la worth noting the change* that have taken place In world-wide conavzeptlons of zinc In the peat twenty year* or so. Before World war II the major outlet was bra**, followed by zinc sheet for build ing, a use largely confined to Europe, and then galvanizing. Today galva nizing la strongly In first rank and accounts for about 401 of tha total world consumption and with bras* and die casting each at about half that amount. As with lead In anti-knock compounds, we have in zinc for die castlng an application attaining co--erclal significance only in recent decades. It now utilize* a substantial proportion of tbs world's zinc. Zinc sheet only accounts for about 10Z of world cons--ptioa and la mow fourth In Importance In --rid usa. Luapyqpwpwgggywu m `* ft. ..j iij p .....up" ' i WLBBBSWUL1J*1 /^s,-mSs=an^i ^ m wnift'iiLu ..^. ~ . pm m i mmmmmrmrnmmmm LIA15953 ........................................................................... A. OUf Wolff NEW TkPOS CT COKSUHTTIOWS JMti bo w of mm of the transitions that art taking plan, Dot only la tha Magnitude of Markets but In and uaaa themselves. wa night taka a look at aona of tha lataat developnents to ready ouraalwaa for foracaatlng poaalblc danand In tha years ahead. lot's atart with laad. Whlla tha Motor vahlcla lnduitry centimes about three-quarters of all hattary laad, thara la roan for conaldarabla expanaIon for appllcatlona auch aa battery operated lift trucka, lawn ahwera, port* able T.V.'e, etc. It la Intereating to note that tha proportion of lift trucka in tha United Stataa that are battery operated haa la* created not t algnlf lcantly a Inca 1960 - acne estimates clala fron 181 to 301. Io tha United Kingdom 30,000 battery-operated lawn Mowere have been told aInca their Introduction only four yeara ago, and It la expected that by tha and of the decade their production will exceed that of tha gaa-drlven typea. Portable T.V. acta cane onto the 0.8. market only In 1962, but now there are over 20,000 of than la uaa, and, not to neglect our American frlenda. In tha United Stataa about 60,000 battery-operated golf carta are now being uaed! Ho one will claim that theae battery appllcatlona, tdilch presently account for a null percentage of lead demand, are ever going to equal In volime atorage battarlaa In the automotive field. None the leaa, they do indicate the diversity of producta Into which betterlee are now being placed and the hope for future growth. The cone true t loti of public bulldlnga la a large and rapidly axpandlag Industry and here we are finding none new poselbllltlee for lead aleo. Already Mentioned ere thoae appllcatlona In eound control wbare lead le taking advantage of new building techniques and Is being uaed la thin, lightweight office part it Iona which ara factory amde. It la aleo finding wider application for blankets or baffles for sus pended ceilings la offices, end, aa we ell know, it la also being used la conjunction with gyproc and plywood to fsbrlcata different kinds of partitions for public and residential buildings. In North America, school design la Moving toward a flexible concept, using reoovable walla to divide claaarooMS. In Canada, the first laad-llned removable wall will be Installed la euch a claeerooo later this year. With a growing general awareness of no lee and tha need for Individual and group privacy, it would eeea that there ere opportunities la tha build ing fteli lor greatly expanded uses of lead, where, because of Its ness and llagaeaa. It la Ideally suited aa a sowed attenuating aaterial. The trend af laad use la anti-knock ceapoundt la obvious. Thara ara going to oa more lead tetraethyl and tatranethyl pleats eracted throughout tha world, and theae products will be used la increating quantities. Wa know of new plants being erected is erases, Ceraany, Canada and Japan to 11 lustrata this tread. S' * '*p*"*3l msmmw mrnmmmmmmmm m* Mama sasamitatdfciU FiTdfii'idi'iiil UEk. LIA15954 V*hA. ***** iiisttVtr . A. OUf Wolff - 10 - o At labour cost* rlta, char* It a deflate# tread to produce low-malntcnance product* and here xlnc-coatcd steals, for loatanea, arc being widely accepted for total protection la both Industrial and commercial applications. This Is shown In tht growing nee of galvanlsed highway guard rails, bridge rails and More recently bridges, sdilch are expected to save millions of nalntenonce dollars. At prea ent, painting and hot dip galvanising are roughly comparable la cost for Initial application. However, the service life expectancy of galvanising Is In the order of four or five tlacs that of paint, which explains why wany highway departments art dropping paint la favour of galvanising. In 1963, the flret conventional all-galvanlsad bridge in the Western Hemisphere was completed by the Quebec Department of Highways. The bridge Is protected by some 2fc * 3 oxs. of sine per square foot of surface. It Is expected to provide conplete protection without any maintenance whatsoever for at least thirty years In the known environ ment , compared to repainting about every seven years If galvanising had not been used. The galvanising cost was only $10,000 more than It would have been to have It originally painted - 31 of the total coat and 51 of the structural steel cost. Since that particular bridge was completed In 1963, the Quebec Highway Department has slated two more bridges for galvanising. If you wish to be truly visionary, you might imagine future steel mills which will, as a routine swtter, produce la-line galvanlead structural* Just as they'now do with sheet. These will be fabricated and, after final assembly, retouched with sine-rich paint eo exposad steel aurfacet. A large potential market Is In residential aiding where sine has given steel Its protective cleddlng In the battle with alum!mm elding. Another market Is prefabricated building. In both app11cations prepainted or polyvlnylfluorlde coated galvanised sheet can be used for any years of maintenance-free service. In the construction of the new Forth Road bridge in Scotland, extensive use of galvanised wire wet made. The suspension cables, mada up of 11,618 separately galvanised wire strands, (Miinsd 1,500 tom* of sine and will protect the steel .cable during the service life of the bridge. In addition, all structural steel was metallised srltn 500 torn* of sine and painted, affording long-term protection with mlnlmua mainte nance . Turning to die casting, this past year vw witnessed Intensive promotional campaigns by members of the plastics Industry on a reported technical breakthrough, permitting the Injection moulding and electro plating of certain type* of plastics so as to compete with sine dla castings. Vhlla the acceptance of these competitive materials baa bean limited to date, we cannot lessen our effort* to Improve tlac'f position In the die catting fltld. The global Importance of this ust of (Inc haa already been Indicated. In the United States ths American Zinc Industry'* survey of new model cere predict* an SX Increase In ths us* of (lac by jjiuiiMmw*. 2 PI .- e - * - * * - - - * - --..^ .-----------------------------------------.. - - --- mmmmmmigmimm mmmmmmrnmmmmmm9 LIA15955 iiifcd<laaaaMttaiimJsidimasmfcraMiwahma>ramdM i.'iaini iwmta sraAra^rthrahuaiA ...... iHinM - 11 - A. Olef Wolff the automobile Industry during the currant year. While the IMS models expect to uaa a substantial 2.S Billion sine grills, compared to 1.6 Billion In 1964 modal*, we are already bearing ruBbllngs of eevaral additional car aodcle which say Bake the iaae ewltch c"it yaar. laprowed tine alloya la rolled atrip or extruded fora are being acrutlnlxad with great Interest by several of tba large asto irakars In the Waited States for msjot trla uses. Tbasa bo w appli cations could open up areas for substantially Increased sine comtiapllos. FORECAST LEAP COHSUHPTIOH Out of this coaposlte of statistical trends, end-use cooeuasptlon patterns, new technology, laproved uses. Individual aarkat foibles and econoalea, and plain, old-fashioned Judgments, ve have tried to Bake a prediction of free world consumption of aetale for the next four years, 1965 to 1968 Inclusive. The statistical detail for lead will be found In Table 1. Looking to 1968, we anticipate a total increase In free world contraption of load of about 380,000 tons, or an annual rata of Increase of 31. This projection does anticipate a little slowing down of the present rate of consumption, particularly after tha current year. By region, we anticipate the raalleet growth la the United States at about 70,000 ton* compared to 120,000 toe* for Europe, 65,000 toot for Japan and 100,000 tons for tha >"> of tha free world. By 1968, total daaand will be 3fc million tons. FORECAST EPIC COHSUMPTIOR It seems aaalar to be allghtly more bullish about forecast slac contraptions (Table II) than It does ab.-nit lead, but, on the other hand, we do feel that the heat generated by the steeply rising of the past few years cannot be long aalntalned and so, as cowardly as It nay sera, we have eseraed that tha contraption curve will bend downward slightly during the next four years. We are forecasting an Increase la sine consumption of about 500,000 tons, bringing consumption by 1968 to slightly over four allllon tons, or an average rate of increase of 3%T. Bare again, because of the accelerating automobile bora In Europe, we are predicting most of this licreass to be there - some 160,000 teas la tha four years. All three other areas, Onlted States, Japan and "other scrld", will each have Increased within the range of 90,000 to 125,000 tons by 1968. Having Bads these predictions, I would like now to gualliy What does sera evident Is that they are not specific annual forecasts but rsthsr "trend" predictions. What we are saying Is that on the way to such and such a trend contraption, by 1970 or 1975, It seems llhely that world load demand In 1968 will be about 3fc Billion teas and sine demand around 4 allllon tons. It la always easier and safer to predict I' liUUU Jill- PW^WPjMglWWHlJl .411 oD ' ' ' r LI A15956 .' i' * * F A. Olaf Wolff 12 i r l t loi% Mn trend* than to be pinned dove to aoa*thing definite kick you *i|kt recollect e year or tee hence. I for tb* morbidly cur lout, e do feel that actual IMS lead i coo*caption aheuld be very cloa* to the trend line but that tine could be aoaovhat higher by aa ouch aa 75,000 to 100,000 ton* - aay Co 2-3/4 nllllon tone, but va are *l*o Baying that any bulllshnee* dlaplayed In the early year* of the forecast nay veil be tempered by bearlahne** or even a decline In coneuaption In the yeara Juat prior to INI, And finally, let u* look Into the cryttal ball for the laat time. Tha Image 1* dla; the picture obacure; the future vague, out of focu*. But alovly aom#thing *mb i to be taking ehape which look* llh* thlai forewarned Beamnd ! (millloo* of tone) t 1970 1975 i i Bafined Lead 3.4 4U Slab tine 4.3 3.3 cowqgstow On* fan thought occurred to all of ua at Co bIbc o who had a hand In preparing thl* paper. And In concluding I would Ilka to pa** It on to you: Thar* 1* really no *uch thing aa an laolated lead or line Bar ker any note national deaand* cannot be aegregated froa like damanda In other countrlea. Hatal conaumptioa* In Creece, or South Africa, or Japan are dependent upon the technologic* of the United Klngdoa, or Prance, or Auetrail*. The proaperlty of the total laad/tlnc taduetry of the United state*, equally aa veil a* that of Peru, depend* upoa vhat 1* happening In the reet of the world. It la tin* now that we gave full recognition to thl* Interdepend ence that v* accept our eutual International reaponelbllltlee. What ere *o b* of the** International reaponelbllltleaT Thinking only of atlauletlqg or euitalnlag the dyneolc* of damand, there ere eeveral that c o b* to alad. Plret There le the teak of creating fretb deaand a, freah aarkat* In nevly-anerglng nation*. Coapetltlv* material* are already getting a handhold In Africa, South Aatrlca and Southeaat A*la * v* b u *c do the aan*. I would auggaat that the laad/tlnc trade aaaoclatlons of the mrld (tdiara aenlor officer* are now Beat ing on e fairly regular beala) consider the formation of a central aarkat development fund for uae la area* not now covered by Individual budget*. HJJJipi Ml* ll||Jl IIIV PUJUpLIWJU.l^l^'hipiWIWI >' HIWLl"TS"'*1 IjMMh l-fH! I Ull Haas Iirnsiibrill*mil o*snt) s? pipmm LIA15957 itrihBMIiilii --Wnii'i fin ak ; fiiTit>Wiiai'ateMaiii -o u A. Olaf Wolff Sieond - Thor* 1* the uttl to glvv now vitality, a mv upsurge to the deamnd for load and cine In the United ttataa. Not primarily bacauta the demand haa been level for a decade and a half, but becauee the woxla looha to thla country for leadership In no* uses, la technological and Barker breakthroughs which will generate new coosunpt loo trends. To thla task, the U.S. Industry Importer, producer and consumer - moat bring increasing vigour, talent and aaoney. Third - The entire Industry - throughout tha world - facee the challenge of matching tbs performance of competing meter1st, and the challenge of reaching beyond tha present rising demand rate for lead and aloe. One of the mechanisms by which new waves of demand could bo generated would be the massive international exchange of technical and market data. Should we not encourage our trade associations to arrange exchanges of load and sine Industrial "trade missions" with other lends? - go that a person-to-person interchange of views on meaofacturlng techniques, product development, market pro motion, and distributions can occur. This, coupled with store Intensive exchange between Individuals and corpora tions, should ensure that the marit* of these metals are presented to the widest possible consumer gro^. 2 J 1 i f l 1 t ri pwiyppwpyi^lippp^ mmm"* > f ijtnijujmwipp B8^ ni',i itf iritiimi '" "5? ' ' ppppppiBP*^* ~U mm A. Olat Itolff FREE WORLD REFINED LEAD CONSUMPTION PRIMARY AND DCCONOARY / / AV*. ANNUAL INCREAK BO-IOSt* l. ItOO-IOM 4.1 % Chart 1 FREE WORLD SLAB ZINC CONSUMPTION 1 1 iifti lAliM lM ttlM lM flM M iii L4. WJ WPUJjJ. CU..1 jp'MBBE IW' Wg 0 *0 i mm W'.PJWPBK A *F 'w f|!* ' U'f [in. ,.*x mm* 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- -M *! w* - - - i" m * LIA15959 A. OUf (to Iff INDEX or FNEE WORLD CONSUMPTION ICAO, ZINC. ALUMINUM AND ELASTICS INDEX: lSO*IOO o-l-----1--- I PLASTICS M ALUMINUM M* Chart ) I *10 M ZINC LEAD Ii I 1 I i I 1 T 100 ****** WW vS mm i iMnirm - > LIA15960 daiiftteiaiiikSw mm A. but Wolff ID80-ID44 COMPARISON OF FREE WORLD REFINED LEAD CONIUMFTION BY MAJOR AREAS (PRIMARY AND SECONDARY I 1*80-1*44 IPSO OTHER WORLD 1004 JAPAN ST4 EUROPE U.S.A. Chart 4 1*80-1*64 COMPARISON OF FREE WORLD SLAS ZINC CONSUMPTION BY MAJOR AREAS (PRIMARY AMP SECONDARY) tOO IM IM *M *OC MO IN M PM ISM UPS IDB0-ISS4 IDE % BDI * * rww-T CharI S IT* UU'J. J i jijiuMjpn um w.i jpmj|jpi!ip_.w iwww ** Jm "u K^jp ,j &" . MKAarttatairiM .. _ -- > -'.--A.-,, awwp.yiP LIA15961 j|^ff||- 1^..-- wr ..... ^ Oiaf Mblff L ? U S A. 19 <4 LEAD AND ZINC CONSUMPTION BY END USE I s Chart A Chart 7 CSw <h it o j iiiiimiiiiij ,i. JTB . gAiiiyiJMWuBSBSw^^SI^Sijg^jBippaWp LIA15962 ' A. OUf Itolff U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY; CONSUMPTION OF ZINC DIE CASTINGS ZINC OIC CASTIN8S POUNDS PER CAR Chart U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY; CONSUMPTION OF GALVANIZED SHEET Chart 9 mf "WBP 9&- Wk. HRIHilJJRI^BBPPIPi1' ' ..IJRSllJJi i  tfiniriia LIA15963 A. OUf Wolff N i *r f i ? & V l t % tk EUROPE 1964 LEAD AND ZINC CONSUMPTION BY END USE MCriMCO LCAO' LAI IIAC* Chart 10 *7" > III! II l <| mi |iwN!^i,T^|fPWP*WNPNPRW^P^WPWfPPB--11nI|' umi iWllpip * PI III I -III nil IIW i l l upwjp iiLi u l u wmitifmmmmmimm* LIA15964 aiisumkmmlim mijOSimM A. OUf toll! JAPANi KOTO* VEHICLES 'PRODUCTION ANO EXPORTS' i t>CTI Chart 11 jsHHl no * **M ttH *H IM M *H M W M SI MS 1 JAPAN 1964 LEAD ANO ZINC CONSUMPTION 8Y END USE i REPINED LEAO* SLAS ZINC* " ; i mm wm* m V LIA15965 _jjaiNaaa*hi<flNftByttii6NaN*A<fliaa;iiia'i S^iiififciaaSfe^iiiiiiMiniaii^ i. iin i rr fiiMfatetoiatefimte. A. OUf Wolff i * ICAO tND-USC CONSUMPTION PATTtANS itSI NCL*t*PltO UNlTCO STATCt i * i w i TT T1 KHI-fWlM* PM*UCT l p*"~ ' aia'A ^ ! exit j "j . 4 -i J > uir.s MTlVtraOCR WSOUMBI T - \ aTTtaita | gggggggl H It M M Chart 13 CUAOPC t * P* " i :< j - --* 3 i- V1 J! t- * !; i -: . _ mmu II CIT JAPAN NM ukr -------- ---------.................., ZINC END * USC CONSUMPTION PATTCAN ISSS UNlTCO STATCS tUAOPC * It JAPAN Kites MUII IIRC * AtVABUlSt if-CAST!** Chert 14 Ml CUT xwzr *mmppwppip mmmsmmm wmmmm* LIA15966 tMumnUi iifiaUhMUH Unltad Stataa Europe Japan Other TOTAL Free World Refined Lead Conauapt^yq Fcrecaat by Major Areas .965 to 1968 (Thousands of abort tons) 1960 892 1.172 103 270 2,439 1*1 917 1,176 136 297 2,526 1962 993 1,201 126 310 2,630 (Frail*.) 1963 1964 1,037 1,220 137 346 2,740 1,064 1,279 182 375 2,900 1965 1,090 1,335 185 405 3,015 Forecast 1966 1967 1,105 1,360 205 425 3,095 1,120 1,380 225 450 3,175 1968 1.133 1,400 245 475 3,255 Rote: Riacorleal data based oo 0.1. Statistics TA8LZ II 1960 Free Uorld Slab line Conauoptloo 1961 Foracaat by Major Areas 1965 to 1968 (Thousands of abort tooa) 1962 (Frallo.) 1963 1964 ___________ Foracaat 1965 1966 1967 1968 United States Europe Japan Other TOTAL 920 1,242 208 353 2,733 .... - 985 1,277 268 382 2,912 1,051 1,265 268 423 3,007 ' ' 1,146 1,282 330 503 3,261 1,217 1,390 394 554 3,535 BBSB9B 1,250 1,450 400 590 3,690 ssss 1,275 1,485 440 615 3,815 aesas 1,290 1,520 480 645 3,935 as 1.310 1,550 520 680 4,060 wmmm Rota: Historical data baaad on O.R. Statlatlca except United Stataa which tnclodaa estlawte of apnarent unraportad eonava^tlon. i o S \