Document LoawObvVMQ85xe2GG64EOBKgw

ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS Facts and Forecasts 1 rB.EGoodrich BUSINESS RESEARCH MARCH 1974 BFG23877 23113001 Comments on the Business Outlook The slowdown in economic activity previously envisioned for 1974 is being aggravated by the adverse impacts of energ conservation and sharp increases in energy costs on consumer spending. In fact, when complete economic data become available, it will undoubtedly indicate that the economy turned downward in December. Real output is expected to decline in the first half of 1974, reflecting further reductions in consumer spending and outlays for residential construction. Business spending for new plant and equipment is also expected to slow as corporate profits decline. And, net exports are forecast to decline as the result of sharply increased prices of foreign crude oil imports. A resumption in growth is anticipated in the second half of 1974, reflecting an improvement in consumer sentiment, an up turn in housing, and the effects of more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. This anticipated recovery in overall economic activity should be sufficient to offset the current decline and hold the average level of real output in 1974 approx imately flat. Under these slack economic conditions, the immediate termination of all wage and price controls could make a substantial contribution toward moderating the rate of inflation and regaining an orderly expansion of our nation's econ omy by the end of this year. 1. Gross National Product....... 2. Personal Consumption Expenditures.................... 3. Government Purchases of Goods and Services.. . 4. Plant and Equipment Outlays.................................. 5. Disposable Personal Income 6. FRB Index of Industrial Production........ 7. Housing Starts (Private).... Units of Measure $ billion GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS Year 1972 1,155.2 Year 1973 1,288.2 Percent Change 4th Q. 1973 1,334.0 $ billion 726.5 805.0 + 10.8 829.0 $ billion 255.0 277.2 + 3.7 285.8 $ billion $ billion 88.4 797.0 100 882.6 +12.7 +10.7 104 918.0 1967=100 000 starts 115.2 2,357 125.4 2,042 + 8.9 127.0 M~13-4 1,566 Quarterly Totals At Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates lI m -u I .......... MOTOR VEHICLES 8. Auto Production................... 9. Truck and Bus Production.... 10. Wheel-Type Tractor Shipments .................... 11. Auto Registrations, end of year... .................... 12. Truck-Bus Registrations, end of year.__....................... 13. Autos, 2 years and older..... 14. Trucks-Buses, 2 years and older ............. 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 8,822 2,476 197 96,860 21,646 68,200 15,200 9,661 3,007 214 101,237 23,241 70,500 16,000 Quarterly Totals 23113002 BFG23878 RUBBER CONSUMPTION Units of Measure Year 1972 15. U.S.A. New Rubber Consumption.................... .. 000 long tons 16. Natural......................... ... 000 long tons 17. Synthetic..................... ... 00Q long tons 18. % SyntheticTM.............. Other Free World New Rubber Consumption......... 000 long tons 20. Natural......................... ... 000 long tons 21. Synthetic_______ ____ 000 long tons 22. % Synthetic................. 2,937 641 2,296 78.2 4,693 1,840 2,853 60.8 Quarterly Totals INDUSTRY SALES FOR MAJOR B.F.GOODRICH PRODUCT LINES 23. Total Pneumatic Tires -- Shipments............................. mil. tires Passenger Car Tire Shipments 24. Original Equipment....... mil. tires 25. Replacement................... mil. tires Truck-Bus Tire Shipments 26. Original Equipment....... 27. Mobile Home O.E......... 28. Replacement.................. mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires Farm Tire Shipments* 29. Original Equipment....... 30. Replacement.................. 31. Industrial Rubber Hose Dollar Shipments Index...... 32. Industrial Rubber Belting Dollar Shipments Index...... 33. PVC Resin -- Sales of Domestic Production........... mil. tires mil. tires 1967=100 1967 = 100 mil. lbs. Excludes garden tractor tire shipments. 242.4 51.3 141.3 9.3 3.2 20.1 1.6 3.0 127 118 4,337 Quarterly Totals 23113003 BFG23879 FIVE-YEAR HISTORY Units of Measure General Business Indicators 1. Gross National Product............................................... 2. Personal Consumption Expenditures..................... 3. Government Purchases of Goods and Services... 4. Plant and Equipment Outlays..................................... 5. Disposable Personal Income....................................... 6. FRB Index of Industrial Production.......................... 7. Housing Starts (Private)............................................. Motor Vehicles 8. Auto Production............................................................ 9. Truck and Bus Production.......................................... 10. Wheel-Type Tractor Shipments................................. 11. Auto Registrations, end of year.................................. 12. Truck-Bus Registrations, end of year........................ 13. Autos, 2 years and older.............................................. 14. Trucks-Buses, 2 years and older................................ Rubber Consumption 15. U.S.A. New Rubber Consumption.............................. 16. Natural.................................................................... 17. Synthetic................................................................. IB. % Synthetic............................................................ 19. Other Free World New Rubber Consumption.......... 20. Natural.................................................................... 21. Synthetic................................................................. 22. % Synthetic............................................................ Industry Sales 23. Total Pneumatic Tires -- Shipments......................... Passenger Car Tire Shipments 24. Original Equipment................................................ 25. Replacement........................................................... Truck-Bus Tire Shipments 26. Original Equipment ............................................. 27. Mobile Home O.E................................................. 28. Replacement ...................................................... Farm Tire Shipments* 29. Original Equipment............................................... 30. Replacement.......................................................... 31. Industrial Rubber Hose Dollar Shipments Index...................................................... 32. Industrial Rubber Belting Dollar Shipments Index...................................................... 33. PVC Resin -- Sales of Domestic Production........... $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion 1967 = 100 000 starts 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 vehicles 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons 000 long tons mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires mil. tires 1967-100 1967=100 mil. lbs. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 793.9 492.1 180.1 65.5 546.3 100 1,292 864.2 536.2 199.6 67.B 591.0 106 1,508 930.3 579.5 210.0 75.6 634.4 111 1,467 977.1 617.6 219.5 79.7 691.7 107 1,434 1,055.5 667.2 234.3 81.2 746.0 107 2,052 7,407 1,585 241 80,415 16,531 55,324 12,162 8,843 1,951 212 83,693 17,346 58,287 12,800 8,219 1,963 194 86,861 18,235 60,861 13,330 6,546 1,717 175 89,280 19,127 63,629 13,825 8,578 2,071 165 92,800 20,200 66,200 14,440 2,117 489 1,628 76.9 3,087 1,406 1,681 54.5 2,478 582 1,896 76.5 3,469 1,519 1,950 56.2 2,622 598 2,024 77.2 3,856 1,614 2,242 58.1 2,477 559 1,918 77.4 4,238 1,722 2,516 59.4 2,683 578 2,105 78.5 4,524 1,799 2,725 60.2 185.4 212.8 219.2 207.8 40.8 108.5 49.9 121.1 46.2 129.1 37.5 129.6 5.7 6.8 7.2 6.2 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 14.4 16.3 17.3 16.7 2.6 3.1 100 100 2,078 2.8 3.1 106 113 2,550 1.3 3.0 119 114 2,819 1.4 2.6 107 111 2,905 228.0 48.6 135.0 7.4 2.8 18.4 1.3 2.9 112 118 3,452 Totals may not add due to rounding. `Excludes garden tractor tire shipments. UTHO. IK U.S.A. 23113004 BFG23880