Document J1x208BgZd922rJZbyNGogZB

USCA Case #24-1190 Document #2062093 Filed: 06/27/2024 Page 66 of 92 Over a billion dollars in economic output, generally defined as gross receipts of business and nonbusiness organizations. The loss of revenue from sales is felt by every industry in the economy, from health care to retail sales. $102.8 million in selected tax and non-tax revenues to Montana state government in 2028, due not only to the reduction in the size of the overall economy, but also to the loss of specific tax revenue from coal and utility operations in the wake of closures at the Colstrip SES and the Rosebud Mine. 1,305 people in 2028, growing to more than 4,100 people in year 2040, who leave the state due to the loss of economic opportunity due to MATS rulemaking-induced closures in Colstrip. Table 1 The Economic Implications of MATS Rulemaking in Montana Impacts Summary Impacts by Year Category Units 2028 2035 2040 Total Employment Jobs -3,262 -3 020 -2,890 Personal Income $ Millions -240.3 -284.8 -310.0 Disposable Personal Income $ Millions* -2034 -244 9 -268 h Selected State Revenues $ Millions* -102.8 -120.4 -126.8 Output $ Millions* 1.011.4 1.006.3 1.016.8 Population . ...... ......... .......... ...... .......... ...... ........ ... .......... People -1.305 -3,647 -4.106 , All dollar amounts are inflation-corrected expressed in terms of 7024 dollars Each of these specific impacts represent the difference in economic activity between a status quo, no closure economy and the economy that is expected to emerge after the closure of the Colstrip SES and the Rosebud Mine. As shown in Table 1, the impacts of MATS rulcmaking arc expected to evolve over time over the next 15 years. These changes over time are the product of several different forces. Productivity gains over time slightly reduce the expected employment losses but result in income losses that are larger. The outmigration of Montanans who leave for other states (or those who would move here except for the closures) rises over time, with deleterious effects on everything from income to tax revenues. The evolution of these impacts is shown graphically in Figure 2 for employment impacts. With the closures assumed to take place at the midpoint of year 2027, the first year with ceased operations at the mine and the generation station is 2028. Employment impacts grow in absolute value beyond that year as industries like construction suffer from the oversupply of structures. The low point is the year 2030, when employment impacts arc 3.486 jobs. 3 Sierra Club FOIA 2025-EPA-04883 ED_018388_00000309-00066 SC_EVERSPLIT0006229