Document J1X45XjE4eyKOkQyp7DKyjyB

u---- | American j Tlie Application of Computer Science to Industrial Hygiene J. E. PETERSON, H. R. HOYLE, mi E. J. SCHNEIDER The Biochemical Research Laboratory, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan ^ Automatic sampling and analysis of environmental atmosphere* can result in voluminous amounts of data describing exposures to chemicals. The use of a digital computer to process such data and the advantages and disadvantages of the technique are presented. introduction A UTOMATIC AIR monitoring equipment is expensive. Nevertheless, if it is used to signal the need for action by operating per sonnel to eliminate leaks and to effect needed repairs of equipment, its cost can easily be justified in terms of reduced exposures, re duced hazards, and reduced loss of process material. Furthermore, if sample locations are properly chosen, it provides data on the concentrations of air contaminants to which men are exposed. That information, handled properly, can be used to show long-term trends of exposure which, correlated with plant operations, can result in still lower ex posures. In addition, such data can be used to determine the exposures of workmen in what is, in effect, a continuing industrial hygiene survey. These data, in turn, could be correlated with medical information on effects of the exposures to confirm or deny present standards or to suggest new ones. At The Dow Chemical Company, auto matic air sampling and analysis were first used in 1950 to monitor air concentrations of carbon tetrachloride in a production plant. At that time no method wai available for handling the mass of data generated by the air monitoring equipment Even-though the instrument was successfully employed by plant Pretested At tbt Annual MeetSnr of the American Confer eMnacey o29f6G5.ovcrunenUl Industrial Hygienists, Houston, Texas, supervision to control exposures, full mr the data to estimate the average conccnu.ition lo which men were exposed was t.< feasible. To illustrate: The instrument .. orded air concentrations at the rate of m. every six seconds; this is 432,000 times p month. Because the first continuous air monit. was a success at day-to-day control. otl.--> were installed in several plants during i. 1950's. As each monitor was put into n* even more information on workmen-' < . posures was "going to waste" simply lvt .v. there was too much of it. The admit . digital computers suggested a solution. '1 > ing advantage of the fact that the Comp;- tions Research Laboratory had a Biinovi." B220 computer, the Environmental Rw-.v. Laboratory in 1961 acquired a roachiiii- l-' translating air concentration data fmiu recorder to punched paper tape. Coni in " air concentration data could then l>r bined with computer analysis to yield a tv mare complete description of Inhalation r' posures than had heretofore been posuhlr This paper recounts some of the prohl-: ' involved, from the installation of air tu toring equipment to the interpretation oi' data as summarized by the computer. Art i data are used, but only for illustrati'r poses, so plant, process, and even tlir ait taminant are immaterial. This is not a rrl* " <)f an environmental survey; it is a pt.ii ' the application of computer srirnf >'* trial hygiene. 180 Obtaining A An auton he sensitive - of signifies! range from - mediately h; or no signL* pealed expo selective; it rial(s) of i should be t major) van; vibration, ar. must be cap; ! relatively lor. tion by the c . an instrumen meet testing > operation. Ft ord of air cc concentration corded. Any these specific, hive used ot struments an spectrometers able for comj Single-poin plant is selc analyzer is po the plant, ant tinuously to i Tubing used l with, or sorb. Preparing Dat< There is no reading results point chart f means that a tizc" the data minimum, the analog data (t on the slide wi til form (for e handled by thi Because dat: Minimize progi includes a digit i AP00001043 American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal 181 Obtaining Air Sample* An automatic air monitoring system must be sensitive enough to detect concentration* of significance to health. Sensitivity must range from concentrations that may be im mediately hazardous to those that have little er no significance even for prolonged, re peated exposures. The instrument should be selective; it must respond only to the mate rial^} of interest. It must be stable; it should be unaffected by minor (or even major) variations of temperature, humidity, vibration, and line voltage. The instrument must be capable of operating unattended for relatively long periods of time. Daily atten tion by the operator, minor service weekly by an instrument man, and occasional perform ance testing should be adequate to keep it in operation. Finally, because a permanent rec ord of air concentrations can be important, concentration data must be automatically re corded. Any continuous analyzer that satisfies these specifications can be used. So far we have used only combustion-conductivity in struments and long-path gas cell infrared spectrometers; both types produce data suit able for computer analysis. Single-point monitoring in a production plant is seldom economical. Usually the analyzer is positioned at a central location in the plant, and air samples are brought con tinuously to it through probes of some sort. Tubing used for these probes must not react with, or sorb, the air contaminant of interest. Preparing Data for Analysis There is no method presently available for reading results automatically from multiplepoint chart paper into a computer. This means that a device must be used to "digi tize" the data as they are obtained. At the minimum, the digitizer must translate the analog data (usually the position of a wiper on the slide wire of a potentiometer) to digi tal form (for example, numbers) that can be handled by the computer. Because data on the time of exposure can minimize programing difficulties, the digitizer includes a digital dock with an output of the day number, hour, and. minute. A twitch selects a "type of data" digit (from 0 to 9) which is incorporated into the digitizer out put. An extra "type of data" (for example, from an infrared spectrometer or from a com bustion-conductivity analyzer) digit can allow the computer to reject data that obviously do not belong with that being processed. To minimize costs, punched paper tape is used to transfer data from the digitizer to the computer. For each datum the digitizer punches two "words" on the tape. The first "word" con tains the day number, hour, and minute, as well as the "type of data" identification num ber. The second "word" contains the probe number and the actual datum which, in this case, is a number from 0 to 999, propor tional to the concentration of the air con taminant This information is obtained at a rate that may vary from two times a minute to once in 2.5 minutes. Because collecting each datum generated is not always neces sary, the digitizer can be programed to skip the collection of some data. In every case, once data from probe No. 1 are punched onto the tape, data from the other probes are obtained in serial order, but the digitizer can ignore all but every' second, fifth, or tenth sets of analyses. Programing fha Computer We decided that the minimum time in the data summary should be an eight-hour shift For this period the Dow Computations Re search Laboratory programed the computer to calculate the mean concentration at each location, the standard deviation of these data, the percentage of time that the concentration was above several preselected levels, and the appropriate time-weighted averages. Computers are versatile. For instance, if one probe is located to sample air outside the building, the computer can be programed to correct automatically for deviations in the "background." It can take into account peculiarities in the calibration curve of the instrument used for air analysis and can re cognize several kinds of errors in the data and use only "good" data for calculations. ,8 I L r f t I t i i J AP00001044 182 March-April, 7966 Computer Output The basic computer output consists of the mean concentration, standard deviation, num ber of analyses recorded, and percentage of time the concentration was above preselected levels, all at each location for each shift dur ing the survey. Shift or daily averages can also be obtained over any selected time inter val such as a week or a month. These data, further identified as to department, air con taminant, etc., are permanently stored on magnetic tape. The computer has been programed to re ject poor data such as that caused by a stick ing punch or by a faulty encoder. If poor data are being obtained, this fact is often signaled first by an unexplained decrease in Furthermore, assume that, over the time period of interest, concentrations at thcvdata locations behaved in this manner: % of Time Concentration Exceeds Selected Values at Specified Locations Concentration Data Location Number greater than 1 7 4 12 25 ppm 50 100 250 500 26.63% 28.68% 93.44% 31.55% 16.39 22.13 20.08 23.77 6.55 10.65 17.62 11.47 1.63 2.04 16.39 3.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 The time-weighted percentage of time spent by operators in concentrations above 25 ppm will then be: (tSJ> (26.63) + (SI.S) (28.68) + (18.8) (93.44) + (2J.0) (S1J5) + (12.4) (0) --- 38.92 the number of analyses used by the computer to obtain the shift averages. This has become the normal signal for nonroutine maintenance of the digitizing equipment. In addition to the basic output, the com puter calculates time-weighted averages of two kinds. The first kind is the "usual" time- weighted average concentration to which men are exposed. It is obtained by combining the air analysis data with "job analysis" infor mation on the percentage of time spent by men in the vicinity of specific analyzer probes. Job analysis information is also combined with the data on the percentage of time dur ing which concentrations exceed the prese lected levels. This results in a second kind of average which is the "time-weighted percen tage of time" exposures exceeded the prese lected levels. An example of how the time-weighted per centage of time is calculated is given below. Assume that the following information is true for an operator in a plant: Data Location Percentage of Time Spent Number at That Location 1 12.5 7 31.3 4 18.8 12 25.0 Unexposed 12.4 100.0 This means that on the average, during the time period of interest, men in the opera tors classification encountered concentrationabove 25 ppm 38.92% of the time. Similar calculations show that these mm encountered concentrations above 50 ppm 28.24% of the time: above 100 ppm 10.95''; of the time: above 250 ppm 4.00% of tintime; and above 500 ppm 0.00% of the time Data Analysis Automatic air monitoring reveals that in an industrial situation the variation of con centration with time can be large despite thuse of a rather large time base. Figure 1 is plot of daily time-weighted average concen trations to which operators were exposed on each shift over one week. Each point on tingraph is the mean of several hundred deter minations spaced equally over an eight-how period. These are actual plant data. On the second shift there was little varia tion during the first four days, but over tlm last three djys of this period the shift averne varied by a factor of almost four. If tl>r threshold limit value (TLV) for this mate rial were 50 ppm, an industrial hygienist tak ing air samples during the first three days on the second shift would probably have de clared that the hazard to health was low or nonexistent. On the other hand, if he had American Industrial 170 r-- 160 TIME-WEIG CONCENT 130 120 110 too 90 SO -- 70 -- 60 -- so r 40 -- 30 -- 20 -- 1 Figure 1 30 to Febr ppm. sampled on the last < second shift) he . strong inclination to Variation of con' can also be striking, parison of the thir second shifts during , Figure 2 places F 1 text. Data, for Figur , average concentrat: were exposed. The shown in Figure 1 ft can be repeated for The information c based upon hundrt vidual air samples. Average concent! average eoncentrati summaries providet age concentrations standard deviation standard deviation ; are two different th Vet know how to t ciently. AP00001045 i - African Industrial Hygiene Association Journal *> r ttn ifi 183 \ :! 'j DATE Figure 1. Daily time-weighted average exposure* {or each shift from January SO to February 5. Time-weighted average for the week (all shifts) was 82.32 ppm. sampled on the last day of this period (on the second shift) he could have experienced a strong inclination to "push the panic button." Variation of concentration between shifts can also be striking;, as illustrated by a com parison of the third shift with the first or second shifts during the first three days. Figure 2 places Figure 1 in a broader con text. Data for Figure 2 are also time-weighted average concentrations to which operators were exposed. The rather extreme variation shown in Figure 1 for a time basis of one shift can be repeated for a time basis of one week. The information contained in Figure 2 is based upon hundreds of thousands of indi vidual air samples. Average concentrations and time-weighted average concentrations are not the only data summaries provided by the computer; aver age concentrations are accompanied by the standard deviation of the data. Having the standard deviation and using it quantitatively are two different things, however. We do not yet know how to use such information effi ciently. On the other hand, the spread or varia bility of the data is indicated in a more mean ingful manner by the percentage of time the concentration exceeded certain levels. Figure 3 is a plot of the time-weighted percentage of time above these levels on log-probability paper. The interval during which data were gathered and the operational classification are identical to those in Figure 2. This graph shows that the median concentration to which men on all shifts in this classification were exposed was 40 ppm and that they were exposed to 500 ppm or higher 2<yo of the time. The conventional plot (Figure 2) shows a maximum concentration of about 135 ppm, but it is one of seven-day averages, whereas Figure 3 is a summation of instantaneous values. Both kinds of graph have advantages. A conventional plot illustrates better how ex posures vary with time, and any trends be come readily apparent. With this kind of graph, however, the only usable index of exposure is the time-weighted average, a num ber of limited utility because it cannot reflect ?* r' r* * *; I i APOOOOf046 184 March-April, 1966 American Industrial H * the time. They exceed 50 ppm only about 14f, out any further knowlot: h resented by this curve judged nonhazardous b gien'wts, provided that concentrations were iro distributed, of short dtu no consequence in them The data in Figure 4 same plant, for the san by the analyzer using tl as for Figure 3. Durin when the information tamed, the air analyze ignored by operating p- i On the other hand, the obtained when the co by the air analyzer wen rective action. Ex'en pi; ber of leaks and spills c potentially hazardous si without hazard by usi analyzer as an operate concentration variations. A log-probability plot such as that shown in Figure 3 is not very useful as a trend indi cator, but the fact that time-weighted expos ure data plot as a straight line on this graph straight line is a complete summary of ex posure information, including measures both of the average concentration and of the con centration variability.1 The data in Figure 3 were obtained by a way an automatic air n> it will not justify its t used. < t Advantages of the Tack paper offers exciting possibilities. In our survey using the equipment described. Hw The advantages of . limited experience all time-weighted percent are these data to be interpreted? If we sti!'. coupled with a compui age of time data have been best fitted by a assume a TLV of 50 ppm, is the exposin' are many. First, air n straight line on log-probability paper. That represented by Figure 3 a hazardous one t picture of the manner i not? These data are among the most com tions of the contamii plete ever gathered for men industrially ex Coupled xvith a good : posed to a potentially hazardous vapor; wlut ; age of time men spen i kind of animal experiments should be . ducted to interpret these exposures? We can j tions, this technique c \ mate presently obtain; not yet answer these questions, but we know posures encountered. : that they must be answered eventually. j enables a correlation Despite this void in our knowledge, thr { with varying plant a< data from this type of survey have several ! correlation can point oi uses. Any information about the intensity <*l exposures helps to interpret medical findinc Even without complete interpretation. Min readily-and, when uso ! dramatic reduction of t i men are exposed and ing of exposures is possible. From graph* ! tion in materials lost, such as Figure 3 one can judge if thr ex i monitoring is the onl; posure is obviously hazardous or nonha/.y- vised that truly show* Fiouke S. Data for the period of time shown in Figure 2 (all shifts). The air monitor was not being used by operating personnel to assist in the control of 1exits. r. dous. For instance, in Figure 4 concentrations to which the men were ex posed are shown to exceed 15 ppm 50(1 ** variation between sliif 4 pling is done only on | afternoon and midn i AP00001047 i y of t-\. ires bitii the conned by j ed. Him f we stili exposuns one ci lost comiriatly cx. por; what i be con' We canwe know lily. ledge, tin.ve several ntensity of d findings, tion, ranli>m graph* if the exnonhazare 4 the i were ex* >m 505e of UrJ<VcPh, Industrial Hygiene Association Journal 185 - fa. time. They exceed the assumed TLV of | jq ppm only about 14^ of the time. With- I w, any further knowledge, the exposure rep- v Ktented by this curve would probably be jodged nonhazardous by most industrial hy gienists, provided that contacts with high ^ concentrations were more or less randomly * distributed, of short duration, and of little or no consequence in themselves. i The data in Figure 4 were obtained in the I same plant, for the same group of men, and by the analyzer using the same sample points 1 as for Figure 3. During the period of time. 1 when the information in Figure 2 was ob tained, the air analyzer was being virtually ignored by operating personnel in the plant. ' On the other hand, the data in Figure 4 were * obtained when the concentrations recorded by the air analyzer were used to prompt cor rective action. Even plants with a large num ber of leaks and spills can be brought from a potentially hazardous situation to one that is without hazard by using the automatic air analyzer as an operational tool. This is the way an automatic air monitor should be used; it will not justify its expense unless it is so used. Advantages of the Technique The advantages of automatic air analysis coupled with a computer analysis of the data are many. First, air monitoring gives a true picture of the manner in which air concentra tions of the contaminant vary with time. Coupled with a good analysis of the percent age of time men spend in the various loca tions, this technique can give the best esti mate presently obtainable of the actual ex posures encountered. Second, this technique enables a correlation of air concentrations i with varying plant activities. This type of | correlation can point out "trouble spots" quite readily and, when used properly, can lead to j dramatic reduction of concentrations to which men are exposed and a corresponding reduc < tion in materials lost. Third, automatic air ' monitoring is the only technique so far de ] vised that truly shows the air concentration f variation between shifts. Too often, air sam j pling is done only on the day shift, and the afternoon and midnight shifts are either Fiouai 4. Exposures for the same people sti shown in Figures 2 and 3, but for the period Jan uary 5 to June 18 when the air monitor was used to signal the need for maintenance. The rimeweighted average concentration for this period was 28.83 ppm. ignored or assumed to be similar to the day shift. Finally, the records obtained can be stored on magnetic tape for indefinite per iods of time in a minimum of storage space. Access to records on magnetic tape is simple and easy. These are important considera tions, because proof of past accomplishments can be of considerable value. Conclusions Use of automatic air sampling and analysis equipment, coupled with a computer analysis of the data so obtained, can be an extremely potent weapon in the fight of industrial hy gienists against inhalation hazards. Mere installation of an air monitor, however, does not end the battle. Data obtained by the monitor must be used by operating personnel in much the same way that monitors of other operating variables are used, namely, to assure control. Computer analysis of the data obtained by an air monitor can give the best estimate presently obtainable of the con centrations of air contaminants to which men are exposed. In fact, the environmental an alysis is so thorough that it poses a challenge to toxicologists to devise animal experiments that will provide a better basis for judgment than does the present threshold limit value. References 1, LtrcHHELD, J. T-, Jr., tnd F. Woooxon: A Simplified Method of Eviliutinf Dose*Efic<t Experiment!. J. Exjil. Tktrtp. 96: 99 (1949). t i' W .$ `i t/ ft W n 8 4 AP0000/048 A a*ut C6e*Mca& INTEROFFICE MEMORANDUM Date 10/18/74 Subject --------------------------------------- To From A. R. Adams P. G. Demskie (Location, Organization, or Department) (Location, Organization, or Department) cc: A. H. Kaplan D. W. Pierce J. A. Dyrkacz *** COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL *** Attached are four schedules that have been developed for the review of costs involved in a shutdown of the PVC business. The first schedule (Phase I) Is a summary of the Initial costs involved in such a shutdown and lists the items involved by type o'f expense. Schedule two (Phase II) shows the incremental Impact on APCI over and above the costs outlined under Phase I. Items not included under this table are noted at the bottom. Schedule three (Phase III) is an outline of on-going expenses that APCI would absorb. The percent of expense that Is on-going is noted to the right of the dollar amount. Also attached is a letter written by J. Dyrkacz outlining the contract obliga tions both outstanding and pending in the PVC area. Other important information relative to this analysis is the amount of capital, spending and operating rates that can be expected in light of the OSHA regula tions. This will be provided by J. Barr. The effect of Project Mogul on this analysis is also Important and should be Included. The other major outstanding liability that is not Identified here but becomes more important because of timing is the capital commitments for the PACE expansion. I hope this information is helpful and that the parties receiving this memo can meet this morning to discuss this evaluation. Attachments APOOOOf049 PVC SHUTDOWN CASE 1^'L <r/>c/sL PHASE I -- INITIAL COSTS Items Involved 1) Doubtful Accounts Receivable 2) Direct Assets - Write Off 3) Termination Costs 4) Lease Liabilities a) Calvert City Lease Interest b) Rail Car Lease Liabilities 5) WIP 6) Plant Shutdown Costs 7) Inventory Write-Off Valuation by Item 1) Doubtful Accounts Receivable 2) Direct Assets Write-Off 3) Termination Costs Personnel 4) Lease Liabilities a) Calvert Lease Interest b) Rail Car Lease Obligations for remaining Lease term - 1,000-1,500 Total Obligation 5) WIP Range in $0001s Basis $ 500-1,000 10 to 20 percent of out standing receivable balance as of 9/30/74 $3,200-3,700 $1,000-1,300 Estimated net book value of all PVC assets as of 9/30/74 t^^ $3.4HM of are these assets about directly used in PVC production or R&D 4- Calculated for all locations based upon 25% of salaries *****&<*(&+ -tt/ 500- 600 Based upon Airco lease valuation 225- 450 Assumes rail cars cannot be used in other industries due to surplus for 1 or 2 years 500-1,000 AP00001050 continued... Valuation by Item 6) PI ant Shutdown Costs 7) Inventory Write-Off TOTAL COST PHASE I Range in $000's $ 400- 500 $1,000-1,500 $7.325-$10.0S0 Basis Estimates done by J. Barr in June, 1974 Primarily compound raw materials PGD/df 10/17/74 AP00001051 ($000) Sales Distribution Net Sales Cost of Sales Raw Materials VCM Adjustment Processing Cost Ex. Depreciation Depreciation Other Items Net Margin Selling Divisional G&A Corporate Services Total Sell. G&A Operating Profit R&D Other (Income) Profit Before Allocations Corp. Fee Interest Profit Before Tax Taxes Net Income Ptf/teC HE PLASTICS PAL 1975 . Budget P&L IV6 , $ 61,650 -- 4,368 $ 57,282 $ 39,273 (1 ,957) 5,989 6591 1,1793 (27) $45,116 1,6 SB J,63 12,166 1,535 ' 763 233 . $ 2,531 9,635 m 256 . 116 ft) . Zzn 6> 1,112 -- - $ 8,523 1,434 838 $ 6,251 $ 3,151 $ 3,100 1434 Coo rv/^s Last BitmCS* Oo ClKo* t *<y206> PGD/df 10/17/74 sjjfP i V* AP00001052 PHASE III ON-GOING COSTS Items Involved Amt. of Continuing Expense $000's Processing Costs Maintenance PVC Chemical Cleaning Support Function & Utilities Laboratory Taxes & Insurance Plant & Valley Forge OH Other Items $ 319 155 286 131 193 523 28 $1.635 2) Selling G&A Field Sales Order Dept. Market Development Technical Services Executive Staff Group Services Corporate Services 23 23 73 23 233 116 T~t5T 3) R&D Costs 4) Interest $ 342 $ Coo. 5) Corporate Fee TOTAL EFFECT BEFORE TAX TAX BENEFIT NET INCOME EFFECT $(4502) $(^296) IBM Percent of Total Expense f.-fi* odjti 17% 37 15 25 100 50 3% 8 25 8 50 50 31% 7Z% 100% PGD/df 10/17/74 APOOOOI053