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UCC 003813
E X A M P L E O F RISK A N A LY S IS FO R A S P E C IF IC S TR A TE G Y
RISK SOURCE
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DEGREE OF EXPOSURE OVERALL
E n viro n m e n ta l, h e a lth and 60% - e. g. ,
safety regulations m o re j w o rkin g le v e l
c o s tly than P la n
I reduced to 1 .0
$ 1 .0 0 /lb of production
| |
D e p le tio n allow ance is reduced
25%. A re d u ctio n Based on re d u ctio n to
| is proposed e ve ry |
year
| and ze ro in 1983
|
Land use re g u la tio n s a re
50%. E n viro n m e n - E xp lo ra tio n costs in -
m ore re s tric tiv e than P lan 1ta l p re s s u re w ill | crease 25% s ta rtin g in
c o n tin u e
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|
GSA dum ps sto ckp ile
10%. W ould be
ille g a l under
[present la w
S e llin g p ric e w ould be 90% of P la n in la s t 5
ye a rs of P lan
| adopted
50% - based on
! Ruppe b ill
Canada and A u s tra lia g o v- 20% - C u rre n t | e rn m e n ts p e r m it lo w s a le s p1 o lic y p re c lu d e s | v a lu e o f t h e ir p ro d u c tio n t1 h is
R o ya lty increased by | 12-|% o f o re v a lu e
i
S elling p ric e decreases | by 20% a fte r 1985
Severance ta x in cre a se
70% - B ased on
cu rre n t trend
T a x in c re a s e s 5% o f o re | va lu e , s ta rtin g in 1982
(l)
A M A X opens la rg e m ines
1 m uch e a rlie r than now
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50% - A M A X has P la n share in cre a se | does not m a te ria liz e
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UCC sales reduced bv
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1 5% in la s t 3 y e a rs o f
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(1) F in a n c ia l C o n tro l w ill ca lcu la te , baaed on lik e lilio o d and degree o f exposure data
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E X A M P L E O F RISK A N A LY S IS FO R A S P E C IF IC S TR A TE G Y
CATEGORY
RISK SOURCE
LIK E LIH O O D DEG REE O F EXPOSURE O V E R A LL
as M
m 3 03
T echnology in cre a se s
15% N o b re a k -
at
a o
supply fro m lo w grade o re |
d e p o s its
]
44 X W a iHSS
No p ric e in cre a se in la s t ye a r of P lan
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Sales va lu e s a re lo w e r than p la n
20% - B e lie v e th a t S ales va lu e s a re 10%
j P la n sales values | leas than P lan in la s t a re co n se rva tive | h a lf o f P lan
| I
In te rn a l
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12. P ro d u c t costs a re h ig h e r
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than P la n
m1 a t e r ia l c o s ts
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10% o v e r P la n
C a p ita l costs h ig h e r than P lan
E x p lo ra tio n fin d s only less than plan re se rve s
30%. N ew plants B ased on c a p ita l co st of
; a re lo ca te d in v e ry h o stile
new p la n ts A and B being 25% above P la n
e n viro n m e n t
50%
|
B ase on fin d in g 80% o f
P lan new re se rve s
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E xp lo ra tio n coats a re g re a te r than P la n
1
B ase on costs being 25%
1 above P la n in la s t 5
| ye a rs of P la n
TOTAL
cMni tj* iMni UCC 003814
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(1) F in a n c ia l C o n tro l w ill c a lc u la te , baaed on lik e lih o o d and degree o f exposure data