Document Brojj3JXwVOabbgGJ84ENNGw

t Fiom the desk of IKAVAiiD S. MhGEN 7/23/75 T. 1. Gossagc A. J. Koenig W. B. Papageorge W. R. Richard - T3A J. R. Savage 5 I HONS 058529 I PCB CONTINGENCY PLAN July 22. 1975 ASSUME: Case I Government ban effective l/i/76. Case (I - Government compliance plan with effective ban l/i/78. FINANCIAL CASES - PREMISES: 1. Monsanto non-PCB products will be acceptable (favor 1238). 2. Monsanto non-PCBs - not acceptable. HOHS 058530 PCS CONTINGENCY PLAN Plan to Consider - HSB - I. Compliance with government dlfectlon. TLG - 2. - Monsanto acknowledge plan to government and submit Itflt/lf plan for phase out. - Need for continuing worker surveillance. Continued plant effluent surveillance. (NIOSH demand) pc*1 Concern for Customers. - Notify customers of government ban/handling contract customers. - Monsanto plans to help you. - Supply allocation product plan. - Incineration plan - return goods policy. - Status and price availability of Monsanto non-PCB for ongoing conversion program. - Our customers' customers. Transformer top-up plan. - Outside standards - ASTM, OECD, EIA, CIGRE selling product acceptability of new products and getting data for product acceptance and monitoring of new product effluent. 3. Continuity C Economics of our Continuing business. - Premise case. - Risk case. ' 7/22/75 HONS 058531 PCB CONTINGENCY PLAN Other Factors to Consider HSB - 1. Outsider reaction. - Law suits. ^ ' ' ' ' - PR releases, etc. , /p//6flS r- r! .. ., WRR - 2. Replacement product hazards. - Toxicity. - Biodegradation. - Carcinogen. - Functionality, life, reliability, safety - Underwriter's Lab/CPSC. - "Implied warranty" of use - must be stated carefully. AJK - 3. Reserves for Write-offs. JRS - k. HCl supply CS - effect on chlorine cell house operation. TLC - 5. Ex-USA market - U.S. export) TLG - 6. Task Force to Implement. JRS - 7. Hardware and plant site and tank car decontamination. JRS - 8. Plant dismantling. TLG - 9. Returnlnq/d1sposltIon of warehouse stocks - worldwide basis. JRS - 10. Effect on raw material suppliers. HSB - 11. ReassIqnment of personnel - Mkt/Res/PIt. TLG - 12. Other co-supplier (paper/TCB, etc. to electrical Industry). Hooker. 7/22/75 HOMS 058532 S^CC/ALTy "^OSINIFU C^couf "T*tyj>Mgt/3t- fWl >J Qp ir&Ofcl.Vt^ ........ / ?j; /;. _19lk' "1 s rr r1 .-....-.. . Kfn !! -im. Iii'loi'. fl.Hi PiNMrfrt Hr <Ui) /. n HONS 058533 o r' Cam,* It**,---. II o ft-yp-1- ^*`"' "c Genii' 3--tjagy'lW.Tl a-Tr-^ |*"*-' -r CU.il* A-: Nxxr 2/r > > PCB c& jj^(lw.<Msy ' 7<" ........ . 77 a; //.< 7vv_ rir/l/ * ' {r r. :. >/75 ir" '/ O fci ( 7hf ____ /S-o. _. /YV./?V?............../iT [0.0_______ - .vS.j_......_ .?.?_____ ________ .6,0. Tt.fau'*w #/<V ...... . ..._ /I tr,t/?t/f......... ..........._........ 2-.Q ..........--________________ --_____________________________ //_________.?1_____________-7........;_________ ___ _/<? _jj& r./%____ ____z_c____rr. MONS 058538 PCP CONTIHCEKCY PT.AW CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS 1. Oct. 1/ 1975, U. S. Government ban the manufacture, importation and use of PCD effective January 1, 1976 with further Bppcul precluded. 2. TXS is available at 00 M lbs. per month rate within 2 weeks TXS toll production at 150-200 M lbs. per month can be brought on stream by March '1, 1976. 3. Adequate toxicological data, has been generated by Oct. 1, 1975, to support full scale use of MCS 1500 or MCS 1230 4. We differentially price 1238 to favor its use vs. 1500 or state that 1580 will only be available for a limited 6 month period. End use qualifications of MCS 1230 capacitor designs can bo finalized within 6 months. 6. Overseas suppliers Bayer/Prodelec will continue to produce for 3-5 years. .0^,7. Blending equipment installed prior to Oct. 1, 1976 ($25M). WA V> FORECAST SALES OF MONSANTO PC8 REPLACEMENTS . A. Domestic Capacitor Industry vt/.'/A/* *."/r *17K*/f M Lbs /$M (Includes Canada) 47'4 AXx V7 /,, L'/t 47/."// 155*/lb.) MnvCoS 1ji5v8iiu8 . MCS 12230. Total 76* 2.5/$l^Q7r5j 2.5/$lJ375 5.0/2/750 77 I 7.8/4.M< 7.8/4/J9 78 B.5/4\&T 8. 5/47 79 80 8.5/4. f/ 7.5^4l<2 8.5/2^7 7.5/^22 85 S.S/j.p' 5.S/3<t>2 1`II'W 1 UfeV T))is represents 3754 of marker in 1976,}$oprox. 47% by 1980. ^ L7fi , m.c , _ fa ^ B. Export Capacitors i'W* m76 0/0 o/o tAr 1 0/.55 2.0/1.1 C? Transformer Fluids x ' 'Vsr/yS /'V We will not have capability to supply a replacement fluid before 1977/70 at earliest. Given assumption 1, it would be un- realistic to forecast any sale in this sector. M0NS 058539 V 9.4A /& **.,nA&'tr'''*vJ **-/ Q37V,, r-t/f 5.1*7; A--V 7irc '2 IS o Ae/xic-t fjjw *'*.'* 7-0 l \ HONS 056540 j I I ! I I ! ! I I I i I i ! ! i I I I 1.1 h i i I 1,1 ! X J~lXD If/i/esTMt-AjT tuft! re /I/UO DtxnfWTUAig. :!!' : i. |. I i VtQuynHMicH Plavt] 1 fJeU/POlCT PLftfuj TW) ~ W I 690 iI -Ii . ! ! i .1. j . .1 ! ! .! ! ! .' I ! ! 1 >Ii: i1 : 1.1 JC becQurnmiA/AT/oM A*jo Re-/lss/G/w>An'r 4 f ?c&T<is !!!! 1i 1/00 | ' ! I' : fob' II iI TOTAL ] -I ...u i. |/5.C> i1 1 UfoSO I..1.1. TSL PLAN7 F/S AbPlSTAWUTED 71 Resr or Purt/u 7- . ... .... J ! , _ KBUMhrAfc/Y j i 300 .1J AjewPo&T: . /oo '-f- 1 n.l jm i ; -f I..J . ` - I -! jJZl _,Bus/ajes$ (saovP Loss 0^ SfiosfPfinF/r I. _i._j ... ' --J I 11 pevwi enofr? 4-1 User j ivii)1 87fcS ; :fzsc> 700/S ; ' i/977. 952?T '//90 707/5" ! ! 1/979 : 7/30 ! IZ5Q 8380 ^ urn. .9..f.70, i.... : /3f0, ,108/0 1 I jsn !f/fOO' fIfl.,:/hJ flT: V(J?-EiS.iA.JSCHI* mAR!K.CJT-/Ml..6.k-j.iU)(LL. #t?-Ass/CAj&0 F/)orw ' f?6ir op BoiM/tis Gkoop To .MftKfp,/VlftaMv)SsInT/o*J PHopl PC-6 7b 4/tin - P?& "frfrrfi-rji-i-i-i-j-l-l |-i i-M !!! i i M H-l- ' ym JASK' g&ji' iB'MASe'aoT Aift tiir/tx rfi/cs ''! - .! i ..1. -i i | ..j J ' -i. ..i i ! Poflr&iT/c. 'f- USfSxPoKT ffP : .1 ..!... I 1 7S , j ] X2.S ''IIl 0^ a*" 0ISCUSSION OF CASE I This case Is the worst and most unlikely to occur for the following reasons: . 1. Industry does not have thoroughly tested and approved replacement products in the capacitor Industry. At least 18 months more time Is needed. 2. Industry does not have a fire-resistant liquid transformer fluid tested or approved. At least 2 years more time Is needed. 3. The consumer would be exposed to dramatically different and Inferior performance standards of capacitors and transformers which will affect his safety and energy costs and avallabl11ty. A. The U.S. government Is leaning towards a three-year compliance program'for the toxic pollutant products. Compliance may be possible in that time frame. 5- The alleged carcinogenic properties are not proven. (. There will be law suits against the U.S. government. 7. The odds of success are the lowest from the standpoint of technical and commercial viewpoints. This case Is the worst economically for Monsanto and Industry. There Is very little chance of our successfully developing a transformer replacement product In this case. It would be dlfflcut to successfully Introduce non-PCB products to other world areas outside of Canada as long as those governments allowed PCBs to be used. MONS 058543 DISCUSSION OF CASE 11 This case, which represents ahother "worse case" type situation, Is more apt to occur and other related variations of It are more likely to occur for the following reasons: 1. The USA government wants a toxic substances law that Is workable and accepted by Congress, the population and Industry. An outright PCB ban with severe time parameter which create other risks to society are not conducive to positive legislative steps. Many court cases will result. The U.S. government Is more apt to go along with any one or a combination of the following: . a) a ban to be effective In a long enough time frame . to permit Industry to change over to something else with less total risk; b) a ban on certain PCBs -- like W42 and higher Monologues -- but allow continued production and use of MCS 1043 and 1016 which are considerably more biodegradable and which do not accumulate In body fat to the extent of higher homologues; c) a "controlled" and monitored production and use of certain PCBs -- with effluent standards tightly controlled. ' 2. There are too many other alleged carcinogens with greater production and distribution for the U.S. government to single out PCBs. HONS 058544 Page 2 3. Monsanto and Industry will propose to the U.S. government -- prior to a "total" ban on PCBs -- various programs which will dramatically reduce production and use of the higher homologue (less biodegradable) PCBs with only minimum risk from all other aspects. This case would entail Monsanto offering only Aroclors 1016 and 1043 for transformers and capacitors and reduclng'the production of the "non-biodegradable" 1254 by 10-12 M pounds/year. There are certain other risks here but these possibly could be resolved with only slightly higher costs and fire safety risks. 4. The total Industry Is more apt to accept It because It gives the time necessary for an "all-out" emergency changeover situation. The Industry really wants three years -- but could live with two. The Industry Is not prepared for a 90-day ban. 5. The odds of success are considerably better than Case I. This case Imposes a "tight" but more possible time frame for Monsanto and Industry. It represents considerably better economics to Monsanto and gives us a 50t chance of developing a transformer replacement product. It would be easier to Introduce and gain acceptance of non-PCB products in other world areas. . 7/28/75 MONS 058545 /4