Document 6w1krr8GRx1nrrMXX0dw48XY1

i LEAD INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION eae ic u n o t o n a v in u k MKW VOMK 17. M. V. TH5 U10 CCSS'MrrtCW OVTUXt trrr.Trr-JL'Z Robert L. Sauerrlile, President Ibe Asaooiatiou of American Battery Manufacturer* Chalraaa Welch, ember* of the Load Industrie* Aeeodetion, tad paste* the rril tbit ma do Uses after thee* -- end io it goes tor cfer predict tiooo also. ftHrlng thde, *f oal7 aiagiTlnf la accepting another ton a* President of Tho Association of American Battery Manufacturers TO the fur tbit, la fx thought ful, gracious way, you night iirrite ao again to appear before your group for tbo 1953 prediction rod, it tbo w tine, chick up on iy previous, 1952, estimate. Will, X did o good bit of worrying about tbo situation until Dee* Sonnenmiar of our Ccnpany told bo that there wi to ba quite a varlaaea la tho poor and sta tistics of your industry. Bara t o w j chaaoo for a way out] 9 X understand tho Buraau of Mtaa* hat* published a prillat nary flgur* of ' 351,686 tom aa tba estimated storage battary consumption in 1952. On tho othor hand, c m of tho airy ahla leader* of your lndaatry, itr. Inci, aatlaataa la tha annual odltian of tho tally Metal Reporter, 186,000 tom for 1952. If X coopsre ny laat year's prediction with the Bureau of Enas' figure, I wis in error lOf. If I use Ur, laca'a figure, tho error wa# only 1/2 of IS. I will taka k h etatlstieal license, therefore, and aa glad to accapt Ur, Inca*a figure alnce X narar aspect to ao anothor preditioc of aim hitting a target with aa aocuracy of 1/2 of 11, Seriously, It'* a distinct rrirllage that you afford a la tha storage battery industry to appear before you and Jirm you our beat thinking on the outlook for 1953. be appreciate tho opportunity aad la tho presentation of our data X shall endaaror to keop down tha statistical detail aad be aa brief as X knew your chelruen dosiroo. The storage battery buslneat, you *111 reoall frou our dlacusaleu of last year, divides Its*If into two major categorise - industrial (capital goods) aad astoaotlTO (eonomer goods). In tho industrial category * hare grouped not only storage batteries for railroads, marine, public utilities, material handling, telephones, and Many other industrial applications, but also certain classifications of Ocremnant business, c m# of which cannot ba mntlcoed for security reason*. Opinions 7177 among tha Industrial battery produeora ao to tho total amount of 0 load to be used this year aa coups red with laat but they vary within a Tory close rang* and we have finalised an a 1953 eetiaate equal to tbo calculated ecneiavtico Presented at the 25th Annual Meeting, lead Industries Association, April 9*10, 1953, White Sulphur Springs, at tha Panel Maousri.cn of load Coosuuaro. puuuwwwuopumiue-upijiiii'iijffwuwi.iaitsiJ .MiwwmjgpwwaiaPWPsmHW^wp^iyyim^^igy `i ansritf* LI A16A36 Tb* lead Consxaaption Outlook In Tb* Stormy* Batlarj Indsatry Retort L, iwiTllli la 1952 of approximately 67,800 tone. Sams categoric* of the industrial buslnaa* oro running behind loot year but"otKar* or* wU ahead tad w* fool tb# estimate la cone* restive. Ths outosotlTO category involves four major marketing division* - Oovsrrmwnt, Original Equipoant, Export Roplicsmsnt, oad Dcmastio Bsplacemwnt. Oovenmsnt requirement* of automotive typo bottorloo oro well knoon to til bettery manufacturers and wo setlnet* thia bualnota will Involve 9300 too* of load la 1953 - o ollgbt increase of l,6f orsr th* 1952 requirement*. Tho Original Equipment field, which tktncu passenger cars, truck*, aff-theblghvsy equipment, trootoro, otc., will, la our opinion, require approximately 83,060 ton* of lead thl* year, contrasted with 65,678 last - an Increase of 26.5X. This figure la determined trcm wahlcl* production estimate* of recognised authorities which Indicate that tho passenger vehicle production will bo spprcalaately 5,750,000 unit* | truck* 1,300,000 unit* and tractor* 162,000 unit*. That* figure* aro extrema1;- conservative sine* passenger car and truck total*, you will nets, equal 7,050,000 vehicles, while ww know that currwntly tho industry 1* running at an annual rato of 0 ailllon vehicles, tb* first quarter of thl* year hawing been th* aeccod beat la the satire history of tb* autcmofail* aanufacturlng business. Bowower, hoot of th* statistical authorities in th* vehicle productlca field do not feel that an 6 aillloo wahlcl* year will be realised, and aoot aspect that It probably will end closer to 7 alllion. However, even tb* 7 alllion figure la about a alllion and a half over 1952 production of 5,555,000 - a very formidable Increase of 27E. lb* 12-volt battery, using JOE to iaOC wore lead than Its predecessor, will also contribute la son* degree to th* Increased lead requirement* in the original equipment flail. 2a tha other hand, alight offsets to this will ooeur la th* tractor field and In eor* close design tolerances. Tor the Export Replacement battery buainssa w* estimate th* lead requlreaaot* to be 5.150 ton*. This Is th* consolidated opinion of quit* fa* expert* la thl* field and indicate* that an Increase of about over actual 1952 figure* la expected. Row, let'* take * lock ct th* fourth oo^onent of th* automotive aarkst---the Domestic Replacement field. This category la the largest consumer of l*d In tb* storage bettery industry. A. A. 3. M. reports of domestic shipment* last year were 22.653.000 batteries. At our Association convention in Chicago last Rovsmbar, It was sstiaated by an expert firm of Industrial sconcmlata that th* 1953 domestic shipments would be between 23,700,000 end 26,000,000. More recent work doo* by market research group intimately associated with my own organisation result* la figure of 23,600,000. A very recent poll I have *md* of th* major battery manufacturers la tha United State* produced estimates between 21,000,000 on th* peassisdctle side sad 26.900.000 on th* high aid*. Th* average, which Z am perfectly glad to accept amd to fiw you as our best thinking, Is 23,670,000 Domestic Automotive Replacement unit* for 1953. Translated Into tonaag* ,A0 Cfr' *"" nt 1*"4 will be required for this (rodaction, - an Increase of 6.5< Th* total automotive requirement* than beoom* 367.600 tons. f I | mm mrnmmmmmmm LIA16437 Tba laad Consunptloa Outlook In Tba Storaga Battery Industry . -3 Bofcort L, 3nmrvUl sg Adding this to tbs industrial tonnage of L7.800, wa h*r tha total oanhlnsd tomaga for Industrial and autonotira storaga taiiarloa of LIS. MO tons* To sun ggt - la 1553i Tha Industrial business Is axpaetad to ba atxwt area with last /aar - 47, Autaaotira Qors rrnsnt buslnass slightly up, 1.6$ arsr 1552............... .. - 9, Original Equipaant buainsas, 26.5$ orar 1552............ <* 83, Xxport Raplacaaaat bualnass, 5.0$ up.................... - 5, OesMstio Baplacaasnt buslnsss, 4.5$ orar 1952...................... -269, Total coafajnad Industrial and Autoaotlva busiaass.................. -415, Or 7.5$ orar 1952. Thank you, gantlaaaa, for your tlas. It is a plaasurs to again peasant, as wa did in 1952, a slightly optlwistis raperfc. r i 9 l [ ^ ISH ,> I ACT: