Document 6bgkwMwopR9BmV98v978bopqo

EFFEC T OF THE FOURTH MILLIMETER ON GASOLINE T EL CONCENTRATIONS Introduction Petroleum refin ers currently a re licensed to use up to 3.0 m iilileters of te tra ethyllead per gallon in autom otive g asolines. Under this condition prem ium and regular gasolines contain 2*53 and 1.93 m l TEL per gallon, respectively. These a re the national average TEL figures estim ated for 1958. The "super-prem ium " gasolines average about 2.85 m l TEL p er gallon, but they rep re se n t only 2 to 5 p er cent of all gasoline sold. P resented in this rep o rt is an estim ate of what will happen to average TEL con centrations during the next five y ears if refin ers a re licensed to use up to 4 m l TEL per gallon. Five geographical regions, as well a s the average United States situation, a re treated separately in the an alysis. Sum m ary Gasoline TEL concentrations have been p red icted through 1963 fo r two conditions 3.0 m l TEL p er gallon maximum and 4.8 m l TEL per gallon m axim um . E stim ates for the total U nited States a re sum m arised in the following table: Total Gasoline (Pool) 3,0 m ax. 4.0 max. 38 2 .1 2 2.21 Annual Average TEL, m l/ gallon 59 60 61 62 2.35 2,42 2.46 2,63 2.60 2.80 2 .7 4 2,99 63 2 .7 8 3.17 Ga a total gasoline, or pool basis some variation in concentration occurs among the five geographical refining regions. However, these inter-regional differences are sm all. * Introducing the 4th m illile te r of TEL w ill have the following effects on c u rre n t and five y e a r 5look a h e a d 3 T E L le v e ls : I . C u rre n t {1958$ -- 1. U .S . to ta l pool g aso lin e w ould in c r e a s e 0 .0 9 m l - - 4% h ig h e r than current predictions for 1958. 2 . The regional gasoline pool in c re a se s would range between 0 .2 4 m l {10%) fo r the W este rn re g io n a n d 0 .0 3 m l (2%) fo r th e Guli C o ast, n . F iv e Y e a r 5L ook A head8 {1963) -- 1. U .S , to ta l pool gaso lin e w ould in c re a s e 0 ,3 9 m l 14% h ig h er than th a t p red icted for 1963 under 3 m l T E L r e s tr ic tio n s . 2 . The regional gasoline pool in creases would range between 0,65 ml {22%) fo r the E a s te r n region-, and 0 ,1 8 m l (6%) fo r the Gulf C o a st, z These conclusiona a re sum m arised for the total U .S. gasoline pool and the indi vidual re g io n a l pools in F ig u re s 1 and 2 re s p e c tiv e ly . "S u p e r-p re m iu m " g a so lin e s w hich c o n stitu te 2 to 5% of to ta l g a so lin e c u rre n tly av erag e about Z . 85 m l T EL p er gallon. They w ill probably be blended to a con centration approaching 4.0 m l TEL per gallon if the fourth m illileter is allowed. H e 0009397 r VI l. <I-' 'J *2 ~w ? \jVo.i. o< 5 K J uoo `i ...."' ...... . ' ,yV -v - l a b o r a t o r i e s a t .. I . \> r i < ' GG o- >:, i" M V i i . o *J . T 4: .o i*) V. J J^ c oQ \0 0 U w U ^ -J . 0 \5 rUv) 1 3D ^ fO O) co Co 0\ f / GO fi. <?. Oz v~ V- 0 . *? 3 y Ifvwe9i <2u ^ 5 lu 9 o I g VS ^ (V I j i o 3 \J Q o o \~ 3 AU p j w n ~~>3 J- /V/ ?;v?vow % D iscussion - B asis T h e d o cu m en t atio n ox th e a p p ro a ch e m p lo y e d in t h is e v a lu a t io n ca n be lo g ic a lly d iv id e d in t o t h re e d ist in c t ste p si 1. P e r Ce n t o f G a so lin e a t M asd m ara T E D B y o u r d efin itio n # t h a t p ercen tag e o f g a so lin e th at h as g r e a t e r th an Z .B m l T E D p e r g a llo n co n st it u t e s rn sx im u m T E D . T h e av erag e T EX. co n ten t o f t h is g aso lin e w o u ld b e b etw een 2 .7 t o S.t f m l T E D p e r g a llo n F ig u r e 3 d e p ict s t h is r e la t io n sh ip an d is b ased on G a so lin e T e st in g L a b o t a io t y data. We h ave assu m ed th at i f the 4tb m illilit e r w ere a v a ila b le to the in d u st r y # i t would b e em p lo y ee, o n ly b y t h a t se g m e n t t h a t is c u r r e n t ly a t t h e i i a x i a im TEL l im i t . Z . G a s o lin e P o o l O ct a n e I m p r o v gaaen t P r o c e s s in g C o s t s -- Sh o w n in Fig u r e 4 a r e the e stim a t e d p oo l p ro ce ssin g co st s on a r e g io n a l b a sis f o r 1953 an d f o r 1963 A cfcrrig h t in fcsr pol& fcion betw een t h e se p o in t s g iv e s the v a lu e s fo r in t e rm e d ia t e y e a r s. B a sica lly th e se co st s w ered e r iv e d f r o m co m p u t in g cteue im p r o v e m e n t c o s t s f o r c a t a ly t ic r e - T f o r m in g h e a v y t h e r m a l a a p h f ia (1958 costs'? an d iso m e r f isa t io a (1963 co st s) f o r each o f the v e g io a s. T h ese p r o ce sse s w ere ch osen b e ca u se t h e y ca n b e essasidex-ed a lm o s t in d e p e n d e n t o f r e g io n a l c r u d e an d h y d r o c a r b o n e f f e c t s , T r.ey depend a lm o s t e x c lu s iv e ly u pon r e la t iv e r e f in e r y c o st s ( steam an d f u e l! an d p ro d u ct co st s ( g a so lin e an d b u tan e). Th e 1953 octane im p ro v e m e n t co st a co n sid e re d v a r ia b le o p e r a t in g c o st s o n ly ( e x c lu ie s la b o r d ep re ciatio n # la b o r b u rd e n an d m a in te n a n ce ) . F o r 1963 the octan e im p ro v e m e n t co st s v/ ere a a t o t a l o p e r a t in g c o s t basic? B o t h t h e 1938 a n d 1963 c o s t s w e r e o n & 0 % in v e st m e n t r e t u r n fevsia. 3 . G a s o lin e P o o l O ct a n e 1-n p r a v a m e a S C o st s F o r T .ED I n c r e a se F r o m 3 t o 4 m l p e r g a llo n - < Shown in T a b le 4 a r e She r e g io n a l m e a n T E L . co st s f o r o ctsu e im p ro v e m en t betw een 3 an d 4 m l T E D p e r g a llo n . T h e se a r e g iv e n f o r Loth p r e m iu m an d r e g u la r g a so lin e s. T h e y a r e b ased upon 1957 R e fin e ry F a ll Su rv e y D ata. D ist r ib u t io n cu rv e s o f T EL. co st s v e r3 u o p er ce n t o f r e g io n a l g a so lin e w e re p lo t t e d f o r b oth p re m iu m an d r e g u la r g a so lin e s. A r e g io n a l sa m p le c f 10 r e f in e r ie s w as e / .ip lo y cd f o r each d is t r ib u t io n c u r v e . .Tor th e sak e o f b r e v it y thee* d ist r ib u t io n cu rv e s h ave n o t b een in clu d e d in t h is m em o ran d u m . Discussic-a - De s crip tio n F o r a g iv e n r e g io n th e p o o l p r o ce ssin g co st s' w e re a llo c a t e d to co st s f o r p re m iu m an d reg u lar* g a s o lin e . Em p lo y in g t h e c o r r e sp o n d in g r e g io n a l d is t r ib u t io n c u r v e f o r 3 <s> 4 m l T E D { a v e r a g e cost)# i t w a s d e t e r m in e d w is& t p e r ce n t o f r e f in e r s w o u ld K& 0009400 em ploy the 4th m l o ver p ro cessin g b a sed upon re la tiv e econom ics only. With the value and th at corresponding to the p e r cent of gasoline a t m axim um TEL. the am ount of the 4th m l that is econom ically attractiv e was determ ined for each regional prem ium and regular gasoline. These values w ere combined in tiie ratio of prem ium to reg u lar sa le s fo r a given region to give the regional pool v alu e. The regional peed values w ere com bined in proportion to regional refin ery production to give the corresponding total U .S . values. The regional and total U .S . prem ium , regular and pool TEL levels based on lim its of 3 an d 4 m l a r e show n in T ab le s 1 2, a n d 3 . T h ese include v a lu e s fo r 1958 and 1963. The effect of fee 4th m l a s a p er cent over cu rren tly projected T EL lev e ls fo r both 1953 and 1963 is a lso given. T hese v alu es, except fo r c o r re c tio n of a 'typo* {W estern R egion Pool), a n d fee fig u re s fo r fee Rocky M ountain re g io n (excluded in telety p e) a r e a s given in o u r telety p e of Ju n e 18 to M r. T u rn e r and D r. K irby. As m entioned, our 4th m illilite r analysis is based on TEL response data obtained on F a ll 1957 refin e ry sam ples by reg io n s. Y et, we have attem p ted to ad ju st base T E L le v e ls {by reg io n s) to the U .S . pool c o n c e n tra tio n s now a n tic ip a te d fo r a v e ra g e 1958. This leads to some questions about some of the regional effects we a re indicating, p articu larly fee Gulf C oast. However, in fee tim e available we cannot take a m ore rigorous approach to fee analysis by regions. kf 000.9401 TABLE 1 PREMIUM ONLY - 1958 INCREASE IN USE O F T E L WITH 4TH ML East M idw est Gulf C oast West Coast Rocky Mt. TEL Concentration P resent Estim ate 2.61 2.65 - 2.38 2.66 2.20 D elta m l F o r 4th m l .55 .15 .08 .47 .10 % Increase Due to 4th m l 21 6 3 18 5 All U .S. 2.53 .23 9.1 PREMIUM ONLY - 1963 East M idw est Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky M t. TEL Concentration P resent Estim ate F o r 1963 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 D elta m l F o r 4th m l .92 .92 .34 .92 .92 % Increase Over P resen t Estim ate F o r 1963 Due to 4th m l 32 32 12 32 32 All U.S 2.90 70 24 K 0008402 TABUS 2 REGULAR. ONLY - 1958 INCREASE IN USE OF T E L WITH 4TH ML East M idw est Gull Coast West Coast Rock1/ M t. TEL Coaceatratiozi P resent Estim ate 2.12 1.92 1.84 1.84 1.74 D elta m l F o r 4th m l % Increase Dae to 4th m l .35 . #4 .04 ' .02 2.1 ( 0 .5 .1 0 .5 .02 1.1 A ll UoS. 1.93 .03 REGULAR. ONLY 1963 1.6 ' .* East M idw est Gulf Coast 7/est Coast Rsk?/ M t. TEL Coneesatratioa P reseat Estim ate F o r 1963 2.90 2.31 2 .6 3 2 .6 3 2.50 Fosr 4th xz& .53 28 .11 .21 .29 % IsicreasQ G re r P r e great E stim a te F o r 1963 Dae to 4th m l 18 10 4 3 12 All U .S. 2.72 o*4 9 K 0008403 TABLE 3 POOl. - 1958 INCREASE IN USE O F TEL, WITH 4TH ML East M idw est Gulf Coast West Coast Rocky M t. TEL Concentration P resent Estim ate 2.26 2 .IS 2.01 2.25 1.83 D elta m l F o r 4th m l .21 .07 .0 3 .2 4 .0 4 % Increase Due to 4th m l 9 3 2 10 2 AU U.S. 2.12 .09 4 POOL - 1963 East M idwest Gul C oast West Coast Rocky Mt TEL Concentration P resen t Estim ate F o r 1963 2.90 2 .3 3 2.72 2.77 2.62 D elta m l F or 4th m l .65 .46 .18 .56 .4 8 % Increase Over P re se n t Estimt F o r 1963 Due to 4th m l 22 16 6 20 18 M H .S. 2.78 .3 9 14 #< 0003404 TABLE 4 AVERAGE COST DATA - 3 .0 to 4 ,0 aal T E L /G allon FA LL SURVEY DATA - 195? R e g io n East M idw est Gulf Const W est Coast Rocky M t. Total B .S . Prem ium 12.5 12.7 14.0 12.0 1 3 .6 13.0 R e g u la r 8.3 8 .0 7 .6 6.3 6 .7 7 .6 0009405 F i GU|V(. % Gasgl iUB Gf.1Arili 'TilAH E TC U *s, Av, ka .^ T EL V> A Ga l o w Ni . A T M A X I M U M 7 't - t -- r l :/ ic ! o ' ............ - _ U i * ,fe 7- L . . - " ,, t i! I jIi HA TOH! S AT..