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Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/5/2017 3:16:28 PM cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov; rochelle. corneiro (rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov) [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov]; Christine Diaz (Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com) [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com]; Todd Smith - Georgia DC Gov Rep (todd@totalspectrumsga.com) [todd@totalspectrumsga.com] Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary [Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma #26
Please see latest update for Hurricane Irma. Bob
Robert Nadeau, CEM Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division FEMA Office of External Affairs SOO C St. SW Washington D.C. 20472 Desk 202-212-5193
L_______E_X_.__6_______]i
Robert. Nadeau(S)fema.dhs.gov
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From: Green, Matthew Sent: Tuesday, September 05, 2017 10:59 AM To: Hersey, Tiffany <tiffany.hersey@fema.dhs.gov>; HLT <HLT@fema.dhs.gov> Subject: Hurricane Irma #26
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... At 11am AST, Hurricane Irma was located 225 miles east of Antigua with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph and a minimum central pressure of 931 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
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Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 Hurricane during the next couple of days.
The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of the impacts.
Hurricane Warning * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
Storm Surge - Heights above ground * U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix - 7 to 11 ft * Northern coast of Puerto Rico - 3 to 5 ft * Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix - 1 to 2 ft
Rainfall Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
Miami, FL
16%
Key West, FL
23%
Naples, FL
12%
Ponce, PR
12%
Aguadilla, PR
23%
San Juan, PR
41%
Vieques, PR
37%
Saint Thomas, VI 66%
Saint Croix, VI
20%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Orlando, FL
23%
Miami, FL
57%
Key West, FL
57%
Naples, FL
49%
Tampa, FL
27%
Ponce, PR
69%
Aguadilla, PR
78%
San Juan, PR
91%
Vieques, PR
91%
Saint Thomas, VI 98%
Saint Croix, VI
85%
Hurricane Irma Graphics
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Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
SON
25N
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8 AM Sun
2N
8 AM-Sat ` B AM Fri'
1SN
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Hurricane Irma
Tuesday September 05, 2017 11 AM AST Advisory 28
NWS National Hurricane Center
75 VV
70 W
65V/
Current information: x
Center location 18,8 N 58.4 W Maximum sustained wind 180 mph
Movement W at 14 mph
- SOW
55W
SOW
Forecast pcrsifio n s:
Tropical Cyclone O Post/Potentai TC Sustained winds : D < 39 mph
S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph Ml > 110 mph
Potential track area:
W atches:
C's vD ay 1-3
Day 4-5
Hurricane
Tmp Stm
W arnings: IHurricane ^Tron Sim
C u r rent wind extent: l l l l i fumcarw TropStm
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Hurricane irma Tue. Sep. 5, 2017 11 am A ST
Advisory 26
-Il
W--mjm
Ail Times AST ;
Storm Location & Five-day chance of receiving sustained 34+knot (38+roph) winds
Wind Speed (knots)
Q3# 34-63 %* M
5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 SO 90 100 %
l@fema.dhs
IATCPATl ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH... 22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 M B ...27.50 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-stormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, long itude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) , and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track , the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over porti ons of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life- threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water 1evels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hur ricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Nea r the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. ..
British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix.. .1 to 2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immedi ate coas t in are as of onshore winds, where the surge will be accomp anied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the rela five timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your are a, pleas e see products issued by your local National Weathe r Servie e foreca st office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix. This rainfall
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may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma wi 11 affect the northern Le eward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S . and British Virgin Isla nds during the next several days. The se swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip cur rent conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Brown
NNNN
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