Document 4ajQyDyJ5wrL4eG8Db5q4vB5p
CXWIDENTM,
WOW Wo
TM#
Bo io m mm m n mw *$?,, k .
FABRICS FINISHES JSPARDDir
RESEARCH DIVISION
t o mb s ENsimm s o u p
DUPONT
MARSHALL LABORATORY
U8RMW
RlflllHa COPY
||0| k b QBCULAHON
jmic um (man * mmm PAims 0'tovabr 1951 Forecast)
By: Co Bo Patrick
Bat Issued: .Saptatfoer 30, IBS
Project: 41-8S20, ite-TechMcal Assistance to 'Psxsduetioii
ABSTRACT
aa^Bf--wnwh b miwin *
Acrylic UbK forecast
for the years I860 through 19?2 wi analyzed
to detem&is the asamjfactssrlng and storage facilities respited, tbe tlatfog for'
additional facilities, and their most eoraonical focatioii. !tamndatim mm
atMtfied for additional storage facilities at Utax-eansuafog plants and for
Mmmxsim
mmj c mm tmmm - aigiiR p a in t s
M the sfastoup of the Fort f4adi$on latex plant it was realised, that it ms only
a natter of tim before additional facilities would b needed either to increase annual output to store latex &r peak period usage ox bath. When In the second
cpsrtor of i?s shortterm demand exceeded Fort Jfediwi9s ability to supply efforts mm sited at increasing output and this study w initiated css future mpi-maeatSo
0B3EGSTOS
. VMyrfiTOWW.V
The objectives of this study were:
l,o To deteralps future requifts for acrylic latexes sod usaas for supplying these requirwmts In the most economical nsmner*
a. To detemfee whim additional facilities would be r@pir@d.
ba To detendse whit additional facilities should be sullied.
Co To deteraim store additional facilities Should to located*
SMIW MD OBCUBaWMS
The study was based m sales forecasts fox the years 1967 through 1972 and seasonality factors- based on Trade Sales Faint masmsfectam in 1966.
Fro these data if was concluded that:
1. 1968 requirwnts could be handled by existing suacturlsig facilities- at Fort Madison and Philadelphia Process Engineering if all available storage mm Ml at the togirndag of the peak denaad.
2, 1869 xeqpitMMits could to handled by existing wrnimmim facilities if. 240*000 gallons of storage were added and full at the twining of
&30 Sm.6
X 1970
exeeed to onl S^day capacity of the Bnrt Madison
plant sad nddlttassl sMmfectsrlng facilities will be required.
location of the proposed facility ms based on m etonsxaic valuation of -
either (1) adding a reactor and necessary auxiliaries at Fort Madison; (2) installing a complete nreacto? plant at Philadelphia or (5) installing to necessary additional quipnent to go with excess facilities waiiabl at Niagara Falls. This m&tmtim shwad that the cost of latex deluding freight and distributed overhead fraa toe three alternates ms essentially equal. Out^poclsst costs bower, pointed to locating to 'facilities at FhiladslpMa,
DUP030002421
KBOQWMtfXIONS
Based on the conclusions of this study it was recommended that:
1 Storage facilities be added at the consuming plants as shown in Table II following page 5.
2. Single reactor manufacturing facilities be constructed at Philadelphia with auxiliaries sired to handle two reactors to penult farther expansion at a later date,
ACTION TAKEN
The results of this study and the above reconttendations were presented verbally to Research) Production) and Sales Management on May 31, 1968. These recommendstions were confirmed to R. J. Knake by letters of Jvm 6, 1968 on storage capacity and June 7, 1968 on manufacturing capacity (Appendixes A and B).
CBP:IL
PREPARED BY: APPROVED BY
2
DUP030002422
DISCUSSION
Soon after the start-up of the Fort Madison latex facilities it m determined that approximately 50,000 gallons of latex could be produced per five-day w@k. It ms expected that, as personnel became user experienced, the production rate would increase* It was also expected that as sales of late based paints increased, a tine would arrive when increased output would be exceeded by increased demand. The first evidence of inadequate supply occurred in the secend quarter of 1967. At that tim efforts aimed at increasing Sort Madison's output were initiated which have resulted thus far in increasing capacity to ^qjroadsately 64,090 gallons per week. At the same time this study was initiated to deterain the timing and best location for additional facilities.
Requirements for latex for I960 through 1972 were taken from & compilation by R. B, Holmes in mmSmr 1967 with minor later aodiftetions by P. J. Gcuawald of Cmmm&r Products Marketing. Monthly requirements were thm calculated fins the annual requirements based on consumer paint production la 1966. A summary of monthly forecast recpirmmts is shown an Table I (pleas ibid out following page). Also .shown are 1967 actual and forecast requirements from an earlier forecast. The wife variation in monthly requirements, running from about 206 to 1756 of avenge should be noted became of its effect m manmactuxing and storage requirements.
After tha work m increasing capacity at Port Madison, their monthly capacity was considered to b 280,000 gallons on a five-day week and 308,000 gallons on & six-day week, Seven-day-per-weok operation gives limited additional capacity (possibly an additional .20,000 gallons per month) because of kettle dealing requirements. Kettle cleaning is normally carried out on weekends when no production is scheduled. The pilot scale (1,600-gallon batch) equip* amt .available in the Process Engineering semi-works can fee used to provide an additional 40,000 gallons per month on a S-dsy basis and 48,000 gallons per month on a 6-day basis. Use of Process Eiginoering facilities is less efficient since they were ml designed for regular production operations. In addition their use interfete with regular Process Engineering dsvelogtwt work. Bear courses of action appear possible.
1. Further increase capacity with present Fort Madison equipment. Rarthet significant inansases in capacity with present Port Madison equipment are sot considered likely. Two sources are considered possible: (1) reduced cycle time and (2) increased solids' level. Capacity increases of more thm about 101 from each source are not considered likely within extrapolation of present processing taewiedge.
2, Purchase late reqpirmsmts above capacity. There are no hmrni latexes on the market which match our latexes in terns of exposition and properties. Further, it is believed by Ida Davolopasat laboratory that the paints made from our latexes are superior to those which we can make from purchased late. There are also problems involved with labeling, inventories, etc. if we were to make two formulas of paint for the same end use.
--3--
DUP030002423
67
(AcSnl)
January Mmmxy
109
iio
March
132
21$
Msy 323
3vm
257
J?aly
togust Septmbgr
275 329
m
0ct]b2r timw&m
173
60
Bacsafes?
100mti 2304-
67
(AcSal)
Housa Paint 1558
Mali Paint
into Trim
Ext* Trim
629
127 .
'O
Hoo? Paint
Gloss Sfcuse Pt, <P
2304
TABLE I
K&BGAST IKOi REQpIRMNXS ______JW08S
67
288 213 250 240 344 323 217 23S 200 225 35 120 2380 m6a7i i
1485
869 26
rt
a
i* .
2380
68
247 249 324 309 436 372
275
299 260 254
48
255 3028
68
1752 945 268
63 <
o
3028
69
269
262
357 342
488
417 309 335 288 270
52
268 '3356
69
1884 975 282
.66 55
94
3356
70 n 72
293 176 395
382
552 471 349
.378 320
189
55 283
3742
70
1955 ' 996 296
a
67 359 3742
314 ,, 188
334 200
426 4SS
423 442
' 599
641
522 548
380 - . 407
412 440
346 369
204 227
58 62
196 308
4047
4322
71 y7rw2ijii
2105
1035 312 .
73
' 75 448
4047
2296 2039 327
77 87 546
4322
DUP030002424
So Provide additional storage capacity to handle peaks., the question of bow such* where and When is m objective of this study,
4, Provide additional roawfacteiag facilities* Gb the basis that sufficient sramsfacturii^ capacity should be provided to handle average requirements on a five-day week, additional edacity is necessary to set 1970 forecast represents* As with storage capacity the question becomes where and how much.
Latex Storage
Storage facilities provided as a mmm for bridging the gap between short^terp ramufacturing capacity m& a variable tend should be of sufficient site to provide a reasonable "safety supply85 should dad mm& forecast m supply fail to meet expectations.
Chart #1 (pleas fold out next page) shows the latex stock situation which would exist in 1969. if presently forecast demands, supplies and storage facilities are available and if recommended storage facilities become available. From the chart it can be seen that with the existing effective storage capacity of $06*000 gallons Sail at the end of February, the fore* cast -peek demands would reduce stocks to about 65,000 gallons by the end of June and keep them below 100,000 gallons until September, It seems obvious that this is an untenable situation when one considers that this would be; split among .a minimum of three latexes at six plant locations.
At the recommended additional storage level which would bring effective storage capacity to 540,000 gallons, full tanks at the end of February would result in stocks, of about 240,000 gallons at the end of June, Such a level seems much more reasonable.
,, 44
DUP030002425
': Mfffl, &i*%s&&' ." . .. w
igm aim BmMgMn
sffiOEjAsjs mmm
--........ . ..... Kesssgaeatel gfes*ag 0^pe4ty
v,,,,^ ___________________ \
-J ' "........-s.
\
am i j
r` Mating Storage
(Bajptof'fcy
%
n
----------- :
W/e$;4$8^*S
3p=6 :fiajfi FM6 6yt
pme-45
-mn
Aj*\
/
!
/:
'/
:>4
V
3m' Fel), Mgufe $ps% Mjr
:
Jw
Jtt2y
'
-Aug.
; ______________________~.....................................
Sept. 0fc. I.
DUP030002426
the reawsended additions (please fold out Table XI on the next page) are based on having available storage equal to 751 of the requiresneats for tbs. reaxiimsn month of 1972, the location of the reconended additions wre also based on having the storage available at the cen suring plant rather than at son other point.
$
DUP030002427
satav. tMm'smm'
^ics^Y.'/ . liw -^aaa/2Soa4
;i^5ii/2giL4/
' 10OI V. : tost,' too : Max. Mo. .
M& . * '* '
5
. 20 : "12;.
-70 ; 2$
IS
'
v;6i, . "40 . '
: :1S. . , as-,.
.. 10 .' 2$
' 22 ySS.
:
r:W .' , e> *
52--'.; ' V.20:'/ - 10 y' ' - 'IS
;,? : i?;.;...-" V., ' il : ; . ia
' ' .'alwMr'--'-.1':--. 1 v
SOOIB'^ F#OS' 2l00S: ;.;; :
y-.;i|008
TO -%liofoasfer iy . ' ' VU012/11024. ;
' ;2$ ,
y/0 'ft'-''. . ;' ' 24'
:.iS.y
04 : A '
$40 M: |sy ' -:.r
-
: liev
:' -12-
>' . :V . .
'
$
: ^si;
':fy
.I : ' M IS' . .
-
2$: 0` :
3S,;:'
- ir . - #$ ,, ; - is "
' :'
y
: immim
--v-aaf-v si;-. .
' 74 : 4>.
*'m.tcfe ta^&ge now wad fer 11MS and l008
DUP030002428
C3Tt #2 (pleas fold cut next page) shore the stcclc situation which would b expected inl970 if the recommended storage is mads arcilab a nraufacturiag facilities are provided. ft can lb .seen tha additional storage does not provide sufficient ^flywheel' to maintain a
d-
DUP030002429
1G0SGG0 Gallons
DUP03000243Q
Chart #3 Maas fold out next page) shows the expected stock situation
ha 1972 is both the tecoawnded storage and additional nmufactming
facilities are provided,, It is apparent that the additional storage Is necessary even if additional manufacturing facilities are provided*
DUP030002431
: lASIX S10CKS ' 1972 '
OMT S
100,000 Gallons
DUP030002432
Marofeeiaging Facilities
If it is asswd that sufficient mwwfactztrwg facilities should he provided to produce the average yequirassmts in a five-day work week, additional
facilities are required in 1970* 1970 avenge tecpinewents are 311,800
gallons per month and opacity at Fort Madison is 200,000 gallons per month*
U capacity of she reactors in the Fort Madison latex plant is nominally 3,000 gallons. With the original agitator speeds, 2,600 gallons appears to he the maximum reasonable hatch site. Variable speed agitators rdiicfe would permit slower speeds during parts of the cycle offer the possibility of increased batch sites, there also appear to be possibilities for minor redactions in cycle time. It is estimated that the additional capacity available from sources such .as these is on the order of 101 of present
capacity,
the Marshall Development .Laboratory is also working on studies which should lead to effective additional capacity through increases in the solids content of the latex. If the increase in solids can be achieved, an
additional capacity increase on the order of lot is available,
Evan if both of these increases in capacity mm to fruition in time
(336,000 gallons per month), Fort Madison would, still be hard pressed to st$ply the 1070 forecast. the addition of one 3,000-galion reactor would increase Divisional capacity by SOI and stolid provide sufficient capacity to meet forecasts through 1972.
Other considerations not directly concerned with economics also affect the decision as to the site of additional facilities,.
Since our only commercial scale facilities for acrylic latex at Fort Wbdiscn, expansion of these fecilities would increase
_ on one site, fertbermore, the latex fecilities are located adjacent to the ''Budiura" facilities with the fatoyfe associated with tie hwridHwg <yf frntadl'Bflff.t'
While the addition of one reactor can be achieved with ainiwaa investment because of the use of supporting facilities presently installed, further eaman>jon would reouir Edition of many other suDoortins fecilities. such
as refrigeration, feed tanks, etc. Space fer locating these fecilities would be a problem.
FhiladeliMa the facilities available for latex manufacture at Philadelphia iBaKTad consist essentially of building space and one raw material
storage tmk* however, the installation f a one-reactor* nlant with services
(steam, rater, electric, .and refrigeration) sised to handle two' reactors '
would permit addition of one sore reactor at a very low cost. Construction at WdlaMiMa also rovides a second manufacturing site.
Niagara Falls Manufectae of acrylic 'latexes at Niagara fMla&lphia1,1 achieve a dispersion of raamifacturing facili attendant to transfers between departments rauld be present,
,,as,afc'
Ji proDisns
^COSwSBlXlC
provided a,lmaa/3
cost only
of Edition**! fecilities and freight costs were and Fort Madison and by
:_____-- _____ _____ riw_ etc,) were considered,
g
DUP030002433
New Investment
TABLE III
ommmm urn c o s t s
~--ironrogs--*
Fbrt Madism
160
Fort Madison . - Plus MaMphia Niagara Falls
065 S6S
Inaredients Oper Cost (less New Deprec,) tow Depreciation Latex FraightTank Car Rant
Ingredients pper. Cost, (Less New Pepsee.). -M&w BanMeia^iosi
Lstek Pi&$t
Tank Car Rent
2904 551 16 264 31
3766
2904 673 40 170
--1& ..
3805 -
5388 629
.m16 .
M 4376
1672
3389 784 40 . - 197' 20 '
4430
' 2900 662 .45 216 m. 3852
3383
7m50
' 25iv ;, m
4461
DUP030002434
lugirediffiaSs Operating Ckjst ia&sx VtQteM Tank ..Car Bent
Ingredients Operating Cast la&ex Freight" Tank Car Bant
mm xv
(mmrm mm costs
QVWMOCMK
FOTStedisson
2904 . 218 264 ___31 341?
1970
Port MsMsoa ' 'Hus
SttlSSSSS^L'-." S&HffiSLJStfiB.
2904 240 170 ... It
33$a
2001 &$.
3388.W-Ww 25S 30?
,, 36
' 3986
im,
33m89 m
26 3881
an ., 32
382?.
DUP030002435
APPENDIX A CCl J* S# ALLEN * WIM* F3P
r * j . knake
f . % f * mmsmtr
uwamm
Philadelphia Plant , June 6, 1063.
AOTJCIAH30BS
STOSASE CAPACITir
pivisiom gaocESs b ^in ebr in g g r o up
`
' '
As discussed with you wo attach a table listing the present storage capacity */
for acrylic latexes and the recccmaaded additional storage capacity believed necessary to provide adequate stocks for reasonable operation in 1969 and beyond* The levels recaanended should provide adequate stocks as shown on the attached Chart for 1969, These levels will also provide a three-week supply during the peak month forecast for 1972* We understand you will arrange for the plants to submit the necessary projects* A detailed report on this study will follow*
Since metal salts are detrimental to latex, we recoisnaxid corrosion-resistant
tanks, pipes, and pimps. Stainless steel is a first choice. While we have no
production experience with our latexes in plastic pipe and tanks, such equip
ment has been used successfully by others with other latexes* Our laboratory
tests of A, 0* Smith glass fiber reinforced plastic pipe and Owens Coming
glass fiber reinforced plastic tank material have shown no bad effects after
approximately two months exposure* Carbon steel tanks pointed on the inside
with 'Ttorlar" have been in use for about three months with no apparent diffi
culty, Carbon steel tanks coated with latex have been used with no known
difficulties, but we consider the possible
nnd rusting to be
risky# ; ''
Tank sites should be selected considering that delivering tank cars will be
mainly 12,OC0*gaUon site with fowr cars having two 6,000-gallon conpirimeata
available* Fast turnaround of tank cars IS essential* Manifolding of tanks
should also bo
so that tanks can be shifted from an# latex to
another as seasonal demands Change*
If we can be of further help to you or the plants, please call on us*
DIVISIONAL PROCESS E^INEfiltlNG GROUP If# H. H3SASDS, DIVISIONAL SUPERVISOR
CBPsIL Att.
* Table II - Chart 1
DUP030002436
kv/'-v
w-"
!
,V '> * . APPENDIX B
cci j* s, mm * mm. m .,
V V:'-; ; .
yy''> ' y y ''.'i.'-.y;-
r. j. It* $ F,
yifflN&SGfflDN
Philadelphia Went"-.
JUne 7* !$$$ '
. < ACRILICLATEXES
y. . .AiBiTicm
v'
DIVISIONAL PROCESS M&NEERING OTP V
.
^y
' In our discussion we reported toyqu the results of our economic studios
y> to determine where additional latex"maiiufacturing facilities, should bo
. located* The results of these studios are shown in the attached tables* *
, Since the results on a Ml cost basis show essentially a standoff, and
: slight advantage for Philadelphia (because of freight) on an out-of-pocket
basis, we recommend that you have Pliiladelphia submit a project for a
one reactor plant. While the investment for facilities at Philadelphia
i .-
is much higher thsri at Fort Madison, the advantages of having facilities at two locations are '
If w can supply
f
V:
, pleas# call m w*
f"
;
r V r DIVISIONAL PROCESS ENGINEERING GROUP
; . S % H. EDWARDS* DIVISIONAL,SUPERVISOR
.--l
yy.;/,:-
^A
rtr-vy^yyi-' v
. (t ..*
Tv. .
lyi 4. B* Patrick
CBPiXL
Att, v ? IL: i-
r F ;`r
v;> r'
Tables III IV
'< '.y, ./fT'': '' V. j :
DU P030002437
wmmx c
GC: F, Co OWN WHM, P, | %
Ro <1. KNAt (3)
Fo 6 F. W WOM3WGJCN
l^iladslphia Process Engineer!** October 25, 106$
M3D0JC WEXBS RACITT
OTOSIm PROCESS ENSINEBRIHG GROOP
Cbnfimlng our discussion la your office m October 21, 1968 w sdose copies of the charts shown*
T&bl I shows tbs latex requirements based on the latest Consumer Faint forecast coe^ared to the forecast on which our previous work ms based. Assvms&g that it is desired to provide manufacturing facilities to b able to produce annual requisewnts oa a 5-day week basis, Fort Madison's present capacity f 280,000 gallons per month or 3,360,000 gallons per year is adequate through 1971, 1972 could be handled m a six-day basis.
Table II stows the acmthly rquimsmts based on a monthly distribution caloii&ted fro I960 aansumer paint production. Separate distributions war used far interior and exterior products. From these data it can be calculated that about 2/3 of th latex is requited in a six-month period and that h o t latex is required than can be mmi&ctumd in about half of the months.
Table III shows the situation with regard to storage facilities which could serve as a ''flywheel" to provide material during peak consumption months. We pointed out that South San Francisco and lacker probably could justify the installation of storage .tanks m the savings available from tank car shipments as conpared to drum sMpmsnts, The other suggested additions would add to the present "flywheer' Sot use in 1970, 1971, and 1972 as shown in the Latex Stocks charts,
the Latex Stock charts stow the forecast total stock position for th Division, Th figures in the tody of th chart show the perosatag of tbs following months mpiremmts at critical times (Sot example at the end of te I960 stocks will equal 728 of July requirements), Obviously either additional storage or additional marsiifacturiog capacity must to available in 1971,
From these data and discussion it was decided that*
1. Fort Madison should to able to handle latex requixraents in I960.
2, You will advise South Bm Francisco and Tucker to consider the swings available te tank storage of R>32014 m opposed to receipt in dmm0
DUP030002438
-a-
3. The used tot additional storage for #ayw3$eeCLf* purposes md additional nwwfacturiag facilities will he reassessed about MmM of X99 wtea m S~yaar forecasts will feacosae available.
4, Process Bsgiaseriisg will study the economics of additional mamfecturing facilities versus additional storage as raeans of providing capacity to mot peals retpiinnaits in the period 1970 through 1972.
if m can supply further inforaiaticm please call on us.
CSPilL
Att0
c* b. PAiraa
DUP030002439
TAHUB I
w mm c p BORBCftsr Lirac mmmmm
Old Forecast - S0 B,, Holmes, How 7, 1067 Wm Forecast - Ma U Manley, Oct* 4, 196$
IC-llOOS
I860
sasrta
"Incite?5 toss Wat1,7# i 521
"ttxm-JfoUf* House Paint
27
Miscellaneous
84
Other Hlsco
24
U ga
Total 1B-U0O8
1,883 1,620
'%ucitw Hall Paint "now-tottf* Wall Paint Miscellaneous
934 773 40 13
2
Total
876 786
B041014
Interior Bmml
Exterior Qjaal Floor Paint Gloss House Faint
282 343
66 .68
S3
m
55 83
Total
497 549
M Gallons
1970
1971
KTTtai
QldTMfa
1972
1,813 1,579 31 19
84 92 25
1,953 1,690
1,957 1,619 31 26 84 100 31
2,103 1,745
2,045
32 m , 78
1,665 45
HI
n.
2,239 1,821
9S4 793
39 17
2 O'
m 824 1,049 85S
. 327
21
37 28
2
m 810 1,93s S4S 1,088 S83
2% 370
69 78
67 63 359 88
791 m
m 396 nm
75 71
447 94
326 422 76 104 86 83
546 ...104
90$ 649 1,034 713
iatesc Total
3,336 2,955 ,739 3,098 4,043 3,239 ' 4,361 3,417
DUP030002440
* V
MW MQBHHDT UffiEX HBQU1RBTS M'GMlflB
3mmr$ Wbfuasy Msrdi April May Jure July August Septate? Ctetotaw Kowraber December
Total
1969
187
238 249
MS ISO
315 ' sox .
330 316
m 4S0
366 314
271 284
294 309
233 266
IS 157
46 48
149 156
2,955 3,099
1971 261 IS? 345 330 470 401 296
323
278
165 SO
163 3,239
1972 275
166 364 MB 496 423 313 340 29$ 174
53
172
3,417
DUP030002441
mm mmm h mmm
Chicago
IIOOS
1X008 11014
Bverott
11005
11008
11014
IMladeipfoia
11005 11008 . 11014
So San Francisco
11005
11088 11814
Tucker
11005
11008 ' 11814
fort Madison'
11005 '
11008
11014
nmmt
Capacity
ms 0 Month 1972
40 SI 8 16 22 16
IS 21 16 6 86
20* 53
25* 16 S 16
10* .2S
3 ** 9
22. .
22 o
30 9 9'
76 51
78 16 40 18
Soggwsted
Mdlticm
10 10
49
0 .* *9
30 **
18
25 10
10
* v
Total
50
IS
22
18 16 8
5S 20
20
31 10 10
22 22 10
76'
78 40
DUP030002442
&{T----- ----------
tM& s t o c k s 15:69
?
S4i ......... - " 87*
3 ..
- 5 Days
-- 6 Bays
\
1
Jr
.
a*4,
200tGOG Gallons
QU~-~------ --------
JAB, FEBc MAS. SPR, mi OTOE 0102 MS* SEPIo CT K02. BEG.,
DUP030002443
MEW SMB 1970
100.000 Oi
-
' ^--v93Jf \
//
z
/~".......
/
! /
,V i :/
1 1
i/ I ! /
85*
5 Bsspis
ewMHra* ^
'
1 ----------------------------------------------------------------
jMo mn Mo
mi*
mi mm mm j m.
s k s ?,
ocr.
io?=
w
DUP030002444
umc sms
am
100.000 SaXlesss
................. \
...... ............................. Nasi
i ijt
>
/
.... .if. -
/
.f
....... ....'
...- 5 Beys
w \
!
f
Ml N Ml
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Mo WBp i<. jam. mm j o bs ms ad o . q bf v . oof* sw, mo *
DUP030002445
1972
'T
& 3
oooHA
4$
DUP030002446