Document 38krwo2y5GwNwXV0Vr9MveKJ

rf October 17, 1975 THE EPPLEY INSTITUTE for RESEARCH IN CANCER Frederick R. Johannsen, Toxicologist Monsanto Company 800 N. Lindberg Blvd. St. Louis, MO 63166 Ph.D. . Dear Dr. Johannsen: I received your letter of October 10th and the enclosures on Tuesday afternoon, October 14th. I realize the urgency and therefore as per your request, I adjusted my schedule as well as my biostatistician colleague's schedule to make the project our number one priority. We have accordingly spent almost the entire portion of this week on the project. Despite this fact, we were unable to arrange for analysis of the data via computer to ensure total correctness of the findings and to complete the entire analysis. However, because of the urgency of this matter, we have arrived at a few conclusions from the analysis which we performed by hand. These analyses need to be refined and may contain unavoidable human error although we did make it a point to check on the procedures employed. .' As you know, the most appropriate statistical technique for analysis of data such as this is the analysis of the birth cohorts. This method begins with finding the number of indivi duals born during a specific period and entering the workforce at differing ages in a given enviornment. These subjects are followed up to a certain point in time. Records of their health status and whereabouts supply the information necessary to construct a life table for these individuals. We have developed such life tables for two birth cohort groups born in 1890-1909 and 1910-1919, respectively, for two events. One is the mortality from all causes of death and the other for lung cancer mortality. Such tables need to be developed for other conditions as well. The tables are for quinquennial age intervals and these need to be refined for one-year age intervals. Therefore, I must emphasize that this analysis and the conclusions must*be regarded as preliminary. {See the four attached tables.) DSW 006481 UnlvarUty of Nabraaka Madleal Cantar, 42nd and Oaway Avanua, Omaha, Nabratka Si 105 .STLCOPCB4000703 Dr. Frederick R. Johannsen Page 2 10-17-75 The main finding from this data is two-fold. First the mortality from all causes for the individuals in the two above cohort groups who worked in this particular environment is not materially different from what may be expected as judged by the presently available cross-sectioned analysis for the nation. Secondly, the lung cancer mortality for these employees, par ticularly for birth cohorts of 1890-1909, appears to be in ex cess of what one may expect it to be. To this end, one needs to give more consideration in any followup work to: 1) the smoking history of the deceased subjects, which is of great potential value; 2) the fact that the total number of employees exposed is too small and 3) the . location of a cohort analysis life table covering specific con ditions for the time intervals 1900 and on. All three of these aspects would require considerable amounts of time. Naturally, we did not have sufficient time to investigate the level of exposure and the latency period of some cases. . However, this should be done in addition to the breakdown of life tables for specific conditions according to race. A minor discrepancy came to our attention. The number of employees is 309, instead of 307, which you mentioned in your letter. Furthermore, 192 of these 309 employees were hired priot to 1950. I, as a physician, duly understand your concern for main taining the confidentiality of these records and I have not duplicated the material. If you wish to have this material returned to you, please so indicate. I regret that we could not complete this project despite my steadfast efforts to do so. Sincerely yours, E. Mahboubi, M.D., M.P.H. Professor and Head Epidemiology EM: dk DSW 006482 STLCOPCB4000704 Life table for birth cohorts of 1890-1909 All causes Age interval X -19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 + Number alive at the beginning of age interval lx Number died during age interval dx 77 77 77 76 75 1 68 65 1 63 6 54 6 '48 3 44 6 37 3 34 2 Number lost to follow up - Death race during age during age interval interval ux qx 1 1 6 0.0139 3 1 0.0155 3 0.0976 0.1111 1 0.0632 1 0.1379 0.0811 0.0588 . DSM 006483 STLCOPCB4000705 Life table for birth cohorts of 1910~lpiq All Causes Age Interval X -19 20-24 25-29 ~ 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 ' 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 + Number alive at the beginning of age interval lx Number died during age interval dx Number lost to follow up during age interval ux Death rate during age interval qx 106 106 101 96 83 78 73 70 66 60 57 14 0 "" '...... 5 ' 1 12 05 05 3 '0 40 60 21 0.0098 0.0111 0.0411 0.0571 0.0909 0.0333 OSW 006484 STLCOPCB4000706 Life table for birth cohorts of 1890-1909 Lung Cancer Age interval X -19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 . 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75. + . Number alive at the beginning of age interval lx Number died during age interval dx Number lost to follow up during age interval ux Death rate during age interval qx 77 77 * 77 1 76 1 75 6 68 3 65 1 63 1 54 1 48 0 44 2 37 , 1 3 0.0169 0 0.0194 1 0.0000 0 0.0482 0 0.0278 34 0 0.0000 . - SW 006485 iSTLCOPCB4000707 Life table for birth cohorts of igm-to^a Lung Cancer Age interval X -19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60--64 65-69 70-74 75 + Number alive at the beginning of age interval lx Number died during age interval dx 106 106 101 96 83 78 73 70 1 66 0 60 0 57 0 Number lost to follow up during age interval ux Death rate during age interval qx 4 5 12 5 5 0 0 0.0146 0 1 0 DSM 006486 i ' 'll. | ; i) I I I)' I 'I I <| STLCOPCB4000708