Document 2x995113zjwp93OeZV9bbZ9R

mm L IA16200 vf LEAD INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION 4tO CCXIUCTOM AVCNUt MSW TOW* 7, M. V. 8T0tU.SE BATraiESs mo t f o r nsuana C. w. Oraea, Purchasing Agent The Use trie Storage Battery Ca^eigr Q lou will recall that Mr. Herrwy spoke oo ttaa ewtlook tor storage batterler at last year's panel diacujrion, I would lUe to pay raapact to Mr Harvey's forecasting ability. Be estlaatad that the rep'laceaoot battery business for I9ii9 would aaoent to 19 alllion units. Ihe actaal total, revised last weak, was I6,3b2,000 unite. My abroach to tha subject will be alone a snaiahat different line. Statistical inforaatlon will be offered and an effort aada to darelop cco daslone froa historical patterns. Sane of this Inforwetlen may be saw to you and a tool will be devised wtasreby yon sty analyse treaataat conditions and do yroor own forecasting. than * apeak of lead us* la tbs Horace battery Industry, we aoraally think la terns of the nuUber of automotive battery units that will be shipped la a given period. Moat of you re associated with the alulae, predtctloa and eele of l*d as a coMsodity, and X believe you would be surprised to leara tha tonnages of lead which are la service la Industrial types of storage batteries. Each class ef service will be reviewed alphabetically rather than la tha order of also or leportanet, isaiTts rum s^neg At one tl.e fare lighting was an Important applleatlon for storage batteries which were ueually inrtailed la sets of 16 cells, each call eat--bled In glass jar cootalnlng 11 or 13 plstot. this aervlcs Is repdily falling la voluws because of extensive projects for rural electrification financed largely by our (fcVermont, three years ago a report was published that showed about 250.000 Isolated plants still In existence. If we discount this figure te 200.000 as of today, tha lead tonnage would total about 31,500 tons *dsM would ordinarily be replaced an an average of every five years. MPTim para smnex Xa this class of service tha storage battery la used prlaarlly for propulsion purposes. It Includes electric alas and Industrial locomotives eo4 material* handling equipment. Tha aprllcatlon of batteries to seal! electris hand trucks hea from trewendously (hiring the past seven yean. Tha lead oootant of notlva power batteries totals about 3b,000 tons with an average Ufa cycle of about flvs y*are. Presented at the 22nd Annual Meeting, load industrlae Association. Apirll 13-ll, 1950, Chicago, Xlllaols# at the Panel Discussion of Load mama re. L IA16201 -ifr swiiii * I *- I i3 KUPUT OUUSTTIHj kXt XP-COiOTHOUDO 8BfTICE Practically all of th* passenger and mail car* operated by our rail road! hev# an elac trie generating arataa that la eupportod by a storage battary which furnleb** tha power whan tha car la not oving or aerlng at a alow speed. 3 'fhen passenger ear* were alr-eondltloaed, beginning la 1933, It *aa necessary to increase the elae of the battery at woeh aa 3 to 1 tlaMO the alae seed for eerligfetlng alone. Kejy of today'* aU-coodltlnned cara bar* rtoragt batterlea that contain a too of lead. The total le*d content of storage batterlea la tMa eerrlce events to about 15,600 tone which la turned owar an average of once la flew year*. M i l iiiiiiU m i m. i n ii- r titm d .i wArn-m mirti W a l'd caugpc smnet ia gffgi l o o warm In the early thirties, the railroads experimented with lightweight rail care powered by large alee truck and boa tyre gas engine*. the future In this field waa bright enough to encourage progmaelee developseat to dleeal engine loconetires. Engine aisea grew fro* TOO B.P. to 600 H.P., later to 1000 and 1500 H.P. Moat of the flret installations wade were locowotleea for switching serrlce. The application spread to wain line passenger and freight eerrlce where flexibility of drawbar capacity la obtained by connecting mltlplee of cab unite together. Each of these cab anile contains a storage battery weed to crank the engine. Dleeal locoootires now prorlde 25.Of of the total trectlre effort in eerrlce on all railroad*. Pleas* refer to Pig. 1 and not* th* growth in lead towage of batteries applied to this ewrrlc*. It the end of 19ti9 the lead totaled 8750 tons, Mtlch Mount la mbject to an arerage turnover of once In fire year** That le equivalent to about 115 torn per Booth. Another 115 tone per Math goes into the nee locMotlree cerrentiy bell* belli. sogmitiic sntnci Xt 1* estimated that storage batterlea used In D. 8. euteerlne Mreloe contain 29,950 ton* of lead with an evere-e Ilf* cycle of about fire years. TTXCTPIC TOTTCt lhe storage battery 1* an Integral pert of the power pi Wit required In all telephone central ofrices, private branch exchai***, and for --tl- laneoue application* related to telethons service. X do net believe ! actual count has over been wade of all th* storage batteries In this eerrlce. Westers Electric Co. have aad* an eetlwete of tha lead tonnage Involved and set this figure at P9,000 tone. Th* estimate was arrived at by their knowledge of pscurssent CT~ * n^~r of year* and tbs fact that the "weightod* average life In this eerrics approximates thirteen year*. \ H f c iM r t f iif M il ri t Tun in lih in ........... .ig.. jpg iciinwyi"'jis.sj'|iiiyww(ywM^ywra*s!ewwMLi-|iL^u|ie.jJ||ia.^e.iiiagssaii!*wiuwtaip.wi!Wl4^ijitiagiJ^ltWSS1^' -M LIA 16 20 2 ''liftiTwiiiiii r 'ii Triiimii -i'iirm'nriTii.nii.i > -..... Vio'y^en-mrinuBmiisa'ih - tinsii r - n - 3- KE3CQXMWWB PTOSTlgAI. ggtTtCg So* to insufficient data on installations In soms other classes of service, It le Impossible to venture an satlret* on load tonnages for ooeh oonrleo. Hero are mm of the fields to mhlch e refer* 1. Hallway signal power supply. 2. OsTerrment. Aboard marine craft a* well ae shore lusts11 Utloea. 3. Svitcfagear control lay electric utility eoopanioa, ^ It. Marina 'ortln* class beet* and pleasure craft. 5. Bssrgsncy lighting syst--. X believe It uould he conservative to aay that apprexljaetely 50,000 tons of lead mould be involved t<r the above five classes of serrioa. id tu. x x l d a program, amatf Amjcirnw Vs can noe stsMarlas the foregoing ecrvlssa m foil urns 1 load Tonnage Isolated neat Votive tomr Railway Carlighting Diesel Locomotives Submarine Telephone Miscellaneous 31,500 31,000 19,600 6,750 26,950 24,000 18,200 Tbtal 200,000 kVT*tonJi mncK sane* turnover 5 years 5 ysars 5 years 5 years 5 years 13 years T This class of service unqoestlonably involves the greatest tonnages of lead not only for Initial battery Installation bat for yearly replacement. Practically all of the batteries sre of 6 or 12 volt else, assofcled la rubber or composition containers. Too will often hear this type of battery called an "SU* battery, having reference to the principal (titles of startup, lighting and Ignition, for the sake of brevity, 1 (hall hereafter refer to those batteries ss *SU* types, as distinguished frtm Industrial types. Pit- 2 shoes the breakdown of lead usage In the storage battery Industry into Industrial and 5LX batteries. Dividing the latter figure by tbs total SLX battery production, as reported by A^-B.lt., er obtain tbs average lead content of all &L1 batteries for each year. The higher averages for th# ar years are explained by the fact that high percent**** of production sere of Army ordnance and truck type* that are such heavier than the *y predominant pasaenger car types. fhs chart in Pig. 3 shoes the lead tonnage contained in all highly vehicles sines 1930. At th# end of 119 the total tomag* vas over one half million. The authority for vehicle statistics le the March 15 Issue of lsto> ctlve Xft&istrloe eagatlne. The lead tonnage ess computed hy using ths svarsge unit *elght anova la Pig. 2. ay jyu mf.UHBm.isat.iie 1pa311gB.il. Iff.JU-,WLT1' mm' WWUIPWW1BP LIA1620 3 l f lU M i, ili i V IIIl liaUMlIllIM arfiiiMtaieO lie H hi i am n e * l*Wim aMai-- W-- *>a>MwaidiBdaadte*ni - fa - mops saner. SU type* of batterfe* arc ue*d on tractor* but the aarrica la segregated herein because It* growth 1* t*>rthy of special sentten. Included In thla service art wheel and track-type trwetora used In agricultural a* sail J) aa oonatnactlon equipment. fairly reliable figure* are available on tractor production but not oo arsenal aereppage and machines In active eervicei Re know the epproxiaat* percentages in the early forties that ware bettery-equippd plus the fact that better than 95% of the production in I9fa7, I9fa8 and 19fa9 ware battery equipped^ If we asauaa a uniform rata of increaee in the intervening years, the growth of thla Indiatry ee expressed in battery lead usage can be shown graphically aa la Fig. k. lie *etw of twela (Iw iiwee in v years; wmpaiea quite nine*IJ Wixa the increase In oonataptlon of lead la the tetrs-etiyl field. rcemisTno bt sngsncs Fig. 5 la introduced to graphically portray the influence of average SU battery life on the rate of betUry replaeaaent. The avers*e life aiiriaart for calculating purposes will vary with Individuals, but X do it believe it will be far firm 23 nonths. The coaputatlon for the 1950 vehicle battery erfcet would be aa fallowei Tehlele reglatrations 12-H-i9 U,77fa,000 Plus ertli-ated Puhlic-owned vehiclee not registered 550,000 1. Ulnae new registration* for 19li9 Uni estimated ecrappage for 1950 5, 000J 00 - 2,800,000 Total vehiclee - 19i*fl and older ir.m.Tx Tlaea replsenent rate (23.1 north*' life) * .520 SU replacement* - ? yeir and older care 3375753 Plus 20? of new registration* 19u9 (Jan. 19fa9 cere will be 23 months* old in ttov. 1950) total Highw^ Vehicle liarket - 1950 1,160,100 157736,1 In like nanner, the tractor battery anrket -wuld bo computed Ml feactore in aarrica 191*6 Battery equipped - 66-2/JSC Fima aatlaated acrappage battery-equipped tractor* Tractor* - 2 yaarv and older Tim** replacement rate - 20 nonths* life Flu* 351 of 191*9 production fetal feector Battery Market 3,110,000 2,073,300 lUi.ooo ~I?'S9,3SS .600 T,157,6 170.200 t t St t Jb E r n'lngiiiiii.u. wn* ms9 ew 99 w m iPMPMMiPli mmm wm tlMfc2A ifc.. 1 r- iinMifarilni erwiwwia ri-1 I I ] 8 i j i 8 -5 The Birin* battery market, at l*art that portion valng SU type bottorl** mould bo eompwtwd mi 0, 8, Cout Ouard registration 19i9 pic* notor boat* on inland water* LL5,000 * 115,000 Time* repine emant rat* - 20 month** Ilf* Estimated Karin* K*pl*e*nont Market x .600 551,030 SU batteries 1U b* need In a rerirty of other mpFli0*tlon*| ntetlonary dleel and fai engine aerrica, portabl* t*lar'.on* and radio eerrlon, laboratory equipment, *tc A ennaarritlT* **tlja*t wild plao* this reqrl ramut at 500,000 unit*. lb* total r^lacmaent battery market for 1950 oaa nr* b* ranarlMd Ml .. .. t Table1* battery warket Tractor battery market Marin* battery narkat Kleeell*neon* Total replacement battery market Bqulralent to load tonnage at 19,736,LOO 1,327,600 351,000 5^,000 51,91b,?o0 2L9,900 Tbtal production of SU batterle* 1* aqual to th* abort rrplacunt boalnea* plua dooertlc new car aala* plua export bualnass. Tie foreign currency altuatlon la euch that wu cannot bop* for cocitlmatlea ofth* 600,000 anniel export rat*. Therefore, I would estimate th* total SU battery burlnaa* a* follow*i Colt* Replacement mmrket Mew car market Srport market Tbtal 22,ono,ooo 5,5x,ooo Lon.ooo 77,^'OflC PPrffEAtTDC BT SKATE L**d Tbanage 250,600 62,700 _L,500 5X8,006 Mg. 6 shew* th* rehlcle registrations, replacement battery sblpawt* and total SU battery prediction for th* last 70 year*. Bi* "daab* 11mi ar* rarace lino* aboalnc the ererar* rate of growth. The present rat* of new car production plot future aehedola* ar* *och that th* total reglatratlon p-aph aust cnntliai* upward This can only bar* a poaltlrc Influent* on th* two loaar eurwaa which will band both of tbM ajarard. Th* Hrerare* Urn* dacolr* y^ar eyes. They arc not parall>1. If th* orange Un* of graph C va* reconetnieted parallel to th* enrage Un* for graph A, It would pa*a through 22 nlUlon units at th* and of 1950. Thi* figure, I bailer*, would ba * eonaenratlr* Mtlwate of the 1950 replecMe* --- " ----------^ -- -- , -- ... mi v mjwmMwwwmtwmawmamawmwawmaamwamrwpmamwaaawmwwwmiamaim aan i $ I bualnett, which aaaount rapraaenta rata lneraaaa no fr**\*r thm tha mrtgu riU f lneraaaa In total reticle refiatrationa. Th artIrate for total battarp production In 1950 la not ao aaap to chart Graphically. It aould aaam a* though tha dotted lino ahcnld pai throttjh 11 alllion toUl, were It net for the ^nilllih* InfWnee of new car production. For tha lottar raeeon, It waa drawn parallel to tba total racletre- tlon sraph projection, Flaaaa note boo eloaaly thla purelp Graphical analprla and prodiction eolnddaa with tha lone mathematical calculation flran hafora. f c r *e is t iic 8t fermu Bara la tha formula intandad aa a tool whereby pou may caii^ilata tha load toflMG* to ba oonwmad bp tha aahlela flald of tha battarp lndurtrpi C - I (13.6a B a $.93 8) wbara C la tha eoneumptlon * 1000 tout B la tba naw car roGietretion la allllnM 0 la tha number of uaad cara. 1 paere and oldar, expraeeed la allllona K la a conetent, .9 aatlsfpU* tha condition for Mgr paar axeapt a aar poor or aa abnormal paar of hoardlac* If it aar# poatlbla for tha tractor lnduatrp to obtain raliabla atatlatlca on aerappaG# aad paar-aad Inatallatlona, particularly thoaa which ara battarp equipped, aa mlcht than aaa thla formula to caleulata tha load conxa^lWM C:i (15.39 B 6.61 V) Soma explanation of tha way to calculate C la In ordar. Flaaaa rafar acaln to Flc. 3. 0 for 19lS would ba tha total raclatratlona 12-31-46 adma tha or* car raclatratlona for 19hB, mliva tha acrappaGa for 19fa9. It map alao ba takmn aa tha total raclatratlon flfura for tha aaeond paar praeadlng the D In quaitlon, mlau tha aerappaG* of tha two aoecaadlnG peera. SOJnWU. 7SSKZB Flf. 7 ahowa tha aaaaonml trend which mxlatad In the raplaeamant battarp market In 1939, which we believe la the pattern to which me ara acaia raturnlnc aa a normal condition. Tha lead eoneumptlon curva mlfht ba takan aa tha lnduatrp pattern advanced by 30 dapa. Let ua maaaura our 19$0 cuaatimata acalnat tha lnduatrp pattern. 1939 Fittarn Applied to 11 Million 1950 Actual SMjmante haaip Fabruarp March 6.5$ 5.0$ it. 7$ 1,L30,000 1,100,000 l031t,0(O 1,1*67,000 1,159,000 n w *a i wap ^v" u'a.jqgm- tpijajwn. aw,!ww!..' 1 iiiiiiiiiiii^p^aMmpi LIA16206 4 ! 4 1 0 t lafrvr infi.i ftitte -t - lb the boot of our knowlodf*, export 8LX UtiMU end ladutrlal battery baalnoti or* not sui-Ject to argr aoasonal pottoro of variation. ProteettoB of saw oar* may ipta rotara to k m in mik I pattern oo tba apply ororUkoo the demand. torn l e a d yon i<>5o s c r a p e b a t t o b % eoo now wirtto all of the forofolag dtaooeiloa by wttMtlm tbo total lead requirements for atora{e battorloa as folloooi Seplacwent SLI battorlM So* ear SLI bottorloo Export SLI battorlM Intkiatrlal bottorloo fetal fSO.SoO too* 62, TOO too l,500 tone ys.oeo too* .... 3R5W5*oo - ,t- .^ iij^ .p U ^ 1tt?.f r jjf n ....... - .a ...-^ null" . jmiWIJIlPBMPJjl.JlI.JI J^pppiJIjgj i.ptjf;.U^IPWJ|,t^|i.ll|a^i HI ._! II J*i*WgjijlJUyff!jppWt feiaUifc <7 mW LI A16207 - iffafa-ia'ii.iriv 'ja&^dManinimMihh ,ni- >i bs&dUm +mQ . t Ljjuuupi*_lP- ^HBp^ippwpwmPPPIw^lWl^^ mum ' mwh mj mmu wiW 1* -f*! s mm ainiywiijjijw? LI A16208 fl ' V. fi'' ^ f4r^ HIT o. Total T. X 1000 <\TKD BSr CT LX'J ]N SE>R.\0I BimDUX* - ------ Laad To mv mt* x 1000 Induil. Xr.3. UlU. 6LI Batta. % Total Batta. Total 8LI Prod. X millon lw* Pound* par Dolt 1930 1931 1932 1933 1931* 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 I960 A7*U 091*2 191*3 191*1* 191*5 191*6 191*7 191*8 191*9 iW) 163 157 138 11.7 166 175 191 192 167 198 220.2 253 216 257 307 295 260 380 373.3 286.5 211* 25.0 17.0 13.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18*5 18.0 13.0 16.0 20.0 *** 37.0 1*2.0 14.5 1*0.0 23.0 32.0 35.0 23.5 20.0 15.L 10.8 9.1* 10.2 9.6 9.7 9.7 94* 7.8 8.1 9.1 i^U 17.1 164* 15.1 13.6 8.9 8.1* 9*1* 8*2 9.L 138 11*0 125 132 150 158 173.5 17b 15b 182 200.2 (** 179 215 260.5 255 237 31*8 338.3 26) 19b 12,6 11.6 10*0 10.9 12.7 16.0 15.25 15.6 lb.2 17.0 18.8 16.2 17.7 19.9 18.3 20.6 29.3 29.2 25.0 17.1 9 \v*r*c* for 15 year* aaittlig 19LI-191*5 laclultw. n.s 2L.2 25.0 26.2 23.7 22.5 22.7 22.3 a.7 214* 21.3 9A t 224 26.3 26.2 27.8 23.0 23.8 23.2 21.0 22.8 n. 3 TOTlJ. ITS n HTIWT TOTCLO (Statiatlcii axprvtavd la tbauaanOa) Tt*r Hew f*h. feflatrat* Scrappafe Dee. )let Seglatrat. Deel 31t Pub. Vah. La ad Tartar* 1930 1931 1932 1933 1931* 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 191*0 191*1 191*2 191*3 191*1* 191*5 191*6 191*7 191*8 191*9 1950* 3036i7 2222*0 1276.8 173917 2292.1* 3251*.6 1*016.1 1*102.0 2256.1* 3160.1 397S.1 1*371.9 382.1 265.3 187.0 1*22.8 21*1*0.1* 1*01*6.1* 1*526.1 5800.3 5500.0 3007.2 2760.1 2928.9 2231.6 126019 1977*3 206311 25U*il* 2357.7 200.5 2695.8 211*3.3 2109.7 219L.O 775.5 - 90.6 -828.9 503.5 1260.3 2528.1* 2800.0 26,532.0 25*993.9 2b,31*1.6 23,81*9.9 2b,681.5 26,158.7 28,00.7 29.6L9.3 29,50.0 30,666.6 31,923.9 3**,1524* 32,1*2L.6 30,1*99.1 29,910.6 30,b2L.l 33,693.L 37,236.3 10,502.1 63,776.0 l*6,b7b.O T t T T T T T 336U 36712 39o8 1*27.5 381.8 1*23.7 385.5 393-1 397.0 b27.2 1*81.0 529.1 550.0. 575.0 302.5 296.3 277.5 271.9 283.6 298.2 320.2 30.8 30.0 353 .8 368.8 393.7 3 71*.5 352.1 31*5.5 3514* 369.0 L30.0 1*67.8 505.) 536.b latlaaWd. ^WPiiifP m M*W IJ,|!U'J!*U JlM-HUin i k.->afe --.s.-a* - -. &,.:> ,^.1-. - -ij - wmmrnmm- wjw.wm.inii L IA16209 . . -gr`i pnRippiMp JHI III.UM.IMJIM'P'WI jmrnmmmmmrnm - < 111'lln nlWi'Hlt ipw,HjPPWPJ LIA16210 AULLtON imii.uw-tnm.wnaj u j iii"m1"" ummuway 'v