Document 2jJo8Erb2B93zG56bGE6Y4EE5

<'^21*1" MAR 2 1973 L ... GAA LR PET< URL 05307 Petrochemical guide--20 Vinyl chloride has a *ngp,lc' important end-use as monomer in production of p ilyvmyl chloride (PVC) ^nd vinyl copolymers. The U.S. froduction of vii expanded at an annual rat i 604 percent 1960s, reaching a level of 4 billion'poun3s In 1970 and 1971. This increase has been accompanied by a steady fall in average F.O.B. selling price from 10 ccnts/pound to about 4.5 cents per pound in 1970 and 1971. As a result, the imputed value of production has expanded for the oride: decade at a 6 percent rate to $180 million in 1970. Polyvinyl chloride and other vinyl copolymers arc being substituted for older materials on several fronts. Through replacement of steel and iron in piping, wood in construe* where, tion and packaging, glass and paper in packaging, and N leather in clothing, polyvinyl chloride consumption will continue to expand at a rate of about 10 percent through 1975 and beyond. We expect 1975 to sec U.S. production future of 5.6 billion pounds of vinyl chloride (VCM). This monomer will be sold at an average price of 4.5 cents/pound, and production will therefore be valued at about $280 million (1971 dollars). Production of PYC in Europe is even larger, with 1970 production approxi mating 5.3 billion pounds. European growth rates have also been somewhat higher, with one enthusiastic source predicting a 1975 PVC production of 9.5 billion pounds.1 In all likelihood, European PVC consumption will grow less rapidly than in the United States because of the higher per capita consumption prevalent in some major markets in Europe, which makes growth more difficult. Manufacturing processes for VCM have changed rapidly since 1965. Several new ethylene oxychlorination processes have been employed to shut down older accty- lene-bascd production. These large, new processes now account for over 80 percent of U.S. capacity, and the same process should continue to be employed in expan sions through 1975. Recent announcement of an ethane- based process (TRANSCAT) has raised the yct-un- Here is how manufacturing methods, markets, buyers and setters and proved possibility of bypassing ethylene cracking entirely, but even a viable TRANSCAT cannot greatly influence the prc-1975 VCM business. economics affect the future of This process switch, has also resulted in large changes in the cast of players. In general, some users of VCM vinyl chloride have ceased to produce their own monomer, with pro duction undertaken by large, integrated producers of ethylene and chlorine. Dow and B. F. Goodrich are the largest producers and have produced VCM for quite a few years. However, PPG, Shell and fconoco have become David P. Keane, Robert B. Stobavgh and Phillip L Townsend, Harvard University Graduate School of Busi ness Administration, Boston, Mass. the third, fourth and fifth largest VCM producers despite not having been in the business in 1965. Wc ex|H*et this trend toward concentration of large VCM plants among feedstock producers to continue through the next several plants. The PVC business has also grown at a rapid rate else where in the world. Because of difficulty and expense of shipping, export of VCM has usually constituted a limited URL 05308 VINYL CHLORIDE market for U.S. producers, w ith exports during the 1960s accounting for only a few percent of U.S. production. In 1970 and 1971, however a lack of adequate European capacity .'caused U.S. VCM exports to increase to some 15 percent of domestic VCM production. This proportion will probably return to less than 6 percent by 1975. MANUFACTURE Most present-day vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) capacity relies on the so-called balanced oxvchlorination process to convert chlorine and ethylene to VCM. There are, nonetheless, several older process routes which arc discussed below in the approximate order of their com mercialization. There arc'instances where the first tuo steps of tin's process--chlorination of ethylene to EDO and cracking of EDC to yield VCM plus hydrochloric acid--have been applied without an acetylene unit. Ethyl Corp. has applied this technique, with byproduct HC1 used to pro duce ethyl chloride for manufacture of tetraethyl lead antiknock compounds. Most producers, however, cannot justify sufficient end uses of the HC1 byproduct. The result was the balanced cthylcnc/acetylcne complex (as employed by Union Carbide and Monsanto at Texas City, Texas). Plants were sized so that the acetylenebased production consumed most excess hydrochloric acid fom EDC cracking to produce VCM^directly. This process reduces by half the dependence upon acetylene as a feedstock, but no new examples have been con structed in the United States in the past few years. 1. Catalytic addition of hydrochloric acid to acetylene 3. Balanced oxychlorination process HC - CH + HQ Acti'fg cra,rbon T HgCl, Acetylene Hydrochloric acid CH, - CHO VCM The earliest plants of this sort employed carbidederived acetylene and hydrochloric add derived by com busting hydrogen with chlorine. The catalyst for this addition is mercuric chloride absorbed on a carrier such as activated carbon. The reaction is simple and of high yield when compared to subsequent VCM processes, thereby allowing simple product purification, no sizable waste disposal problem, and low capital and operating costs. Carbide acetylene and purposely produced hydro chloric acid were gradually replaced with less expensive . petroleum^!erived acetylene and byproduct hydrochloric acid (which also coincided with major relocations to the 1 U.S. Gulf Coast), but raw material costs remained high * ^ relative to newer processes. Some VCM is still produced with .this process, but these surviving plants are very tightly integrated with other acetylene-related units and have been gradually disappearing. 2. Balanced ethylenc/acctylene VCM production CH, - CH. + Q,--------------- * CH, Q - CHjCl Ethylene Chlorine Ethylene dichloride (EDC) ch, a - ch, a 900-950F- - - ch, - ch a + h ci EDC VCM Hydrochloric acid HG CH + H a----------- CH, - CHa Acetylene Hydrochloric acid VCM Direct chlorination CH, * CH, + a,--------------- CH,C1 - CHjCl Ethylene Chlorine EDC Oxychlorination CH, - CH, + HQ + $0, -> CH,C1 - CH,C1 + H,0 Ethylene EDC ' Water Cracking CH,C1--CH,Cl r * CH, - CHCJ + HC! EDC VCM The difference between these processes and the earlier uses of EDC cracking is the second reaction above to (1) prevent exporting a large HC1 byproduct and (2) elimihate the need for acetylene-feedstock. This reaction is essentially a variant of the Deacon process to convert HC1 to more valuable chlorine. 2 Ha + i o,---------a, -i- h,o ' j i j | | While the Deacon process has not been a commercial success because of technical problems with corrosion and product purification expense, oxychlorination has overcome these problems by immediately capturing the chlorine in situ to form EDC. The combined EDC streams are then cracked and the resultant HCl recycled to close the loop. As mentioned above, most presently employed processes--including Goodrich, Dow, Stauffer and PPG-- use some variation of balanced oxychlorination. f i s ; j C 1 FIHIVC J CHLORINE. AIR TRANSCAT SYSTEM VINYL CHLORIDE SEPARATION HCl RECYCLE DICHLOROETHANE RECYCLE CHLORINATED COMPOUNDS S TARS RECYCLE Fig-1--Vinyl chloride monomer process via ethans as olferod by Lummus/Armstrong. VCM PRODUCT * 'a< -W*'-.. v. m REACTOR OHCL PRIMARY RECOVERY OHCL SECONOARV RECOVERY j. ii f A 1 chlorination REACTOR eoc PURIFICATION cracpmo FURNACE ho COLUMN vo HHUUN Fig. 6-2--Vinyl chloride by oxychlorination by 8.F. Goodrich. 4. Single-step chlorination and xracking of ethane future, should the process prove to be commercially (TRANSCAT process) viable. CHr-CH, molten salt Ethane CH, - CH, Ethylene ch* - ch, + a*-----------> ch, a--ch, a Ethylene Chlorine EDO ch, a--ch, ci EDC ch,--CHa + Ha VCM Hydrochloric acid2 2 HC1 + J O, moltCn **h - a, + H,0 The recently announced TRANSCAT process involves the development to a pilot stage of an ethane-based route -which foregoes the separate purification of ethylene (see Pig- 6-1). Ethane, chlorine, air and excess hydrochloric arid (if desired) are fed to a molten salt bath with an extremely short residence time and a high temperature, where all of the above reactions apparently occur simul taneously. The potential licensors (Lummus/Armstrong Cork) claim above 95 percent VCM yield on chlorine and 80 percent VCM yield on ethane fed. Even more chemically revolutionary is the claim that chlorinated wastes which are produced may be partially recycled to tlie reactor to result in additional VCM. The Indicated economic advantage (see "Economics'*) of ethane as a feedstock might make this the VCM process of the Popular VCM processes. While oxychlorination has been the process route chosen for all recent VCM plants in the United States and most of the rest of the world, this has not decreased the competition among different processes and licensors. There are several competing processes which have demonstrated thrir commercial feasibility. The fol lowing three oxychlorination processes--on which signifi cant information has been published--are representative of most manufacturing facilities. 1. B. F. Goodrich oxychlorination (Badger). This process was the first successful oxychlorination process (1965), with the initial 400-million-pound/year unit in stalled at Goodrich's plant in Calvert City, Ky. There are about 8 plants which utilize this process, having an aggregate capacity of about 4 billion pounds/year.* As is true of all balanced oxychlorination processes, the over-all material balance involves feeding ethylene and chlorine and production of vinyl chloride (see Fig. 6-2). Yields are certainly in the.90 percent range (and may exceed 95 percent) on both primary feedstocks. The yield losses involve production of light and heavy ends which boil above and below EDC. These byproducts consist primarily of Ci and Ca chlorinated organics, some of which arc suitable as feedstocks for production of chlorinated solvent, (carbon tetrachloride, pcrchloroethylene), while the balance require disposal. The first of three segments of the process is direct * ' ^ '1 `VINYL CHLORIDE by Ethyl) which produces HC1 as a byproduct. The third section of the B.F. Goodrich and other oxychlorination addition of chlorine to ethylene to produce ethylene processes involves conversion of this excess HCl to EDC. diddoride (EDC). This reaction Is .essentially stoichio- Air, ethylene and IIC1 arc charged to a fluidized catalyst . metric in both reactants, with chlorine usually maintained bed at a moderately high temperature and somewhat |n a slight excess. The reaction is liquid phase with a elevated pressure. The reaction to produce EDC (given v dissolved catalyst and mildly exothermic. Reactor tem- above) yields water byproduct, which is rejected as the . perature and pressure are controlled by cooling water product vapor is condensed. The first step of condensa heat removal. Following the reactor, the EDC product is tion produces a crude EDC product, while the gases fed to a two-step purification train to remove light and (primarily diluent nitrogen) must be fed to a secondary heavy ends (the same train processes two other EDC absorber to recover a second stream of EDC by absorp streams). tion/stripping. The tail gases are vented, while crude The second major operation consists of cracking EDC EDC is fed to the common EDC finishing train. to produce vinyl chloride and anhydrous hydrochloric add. The cracking occurs at 900-1,000 F in a directfired furnace which is packed with a catalyst (pumice has been a traditional choice). Conversion of EDC is The oxidation of HCl to Cl, is'higMy exothermic and the subsequent addition of Cl, to ethylene is mildly exo thermic. As a result, the oxychlorination reactor, is cooled by generating steam, which brings the whole typically in the 50-60 percent range to optimize the process closer to self-sulficiency on steam supply. costs between coking cycle, utilities cost and yield. The hot product gases arc quenched by direct contact with a condensed-recycle stream of the same composition, prior to fractionation. In the HC1 column, anhydrous HCl is removed overhead for use in the oxychlorination unit The VCM column produces VCM as an overhead prod The net effect of this crucial section is thus the con version of HCl, ethylene and air to a VCM precursor. While the process is depicted as balanced, design and operating changes allow any individual plant to produce or accept either HCl or EDC as local conditions warrant. uct meeting finished product specifications, and produces 2. Toyo Soda oxychlorination (see Fig. 6-3). A pro a recycle EDC stream of unconverted EDC. This stream cess very similar to that of B. F. Goodrich has been is purified in the common EDC columns prior to recycl employed In several Japanese plants. The essential de ing to the cracking furnaces. The purification step is sign differences appear to be: (1) the use of a fixed bed required to prevent fouling of reaction surfaces in the reactor for oxychlorination, as opposed to the B. F. Good- cracking furnace. , rich fluid bed; (2) use of a hot oil reactor coolant and These two previous process sections offer relatively external steam generation, and (3) incorporation of a little advantage over older processes--they constitute an specific EDC dehydrator column not shown in the Br F. unbalanced EDC cracking operation (such as practiced Goodrich publications. None of these differences are URL 05310 Fehnurw .1 Q%%- major; the processes should be roughly competitive based upon published data.* 3. Stauffer Chemical oxychlorination. This is again very similar to the earlier oxychlorination processes. ' Minor Changes in the routing of streams, small diflerenccs in catalyst performance, and features of the mechanical design are all that diiTcrcntiate between the published information for this process and the previous two. It is noteworthy that Stauffer published an estimate of 3.7 billion pounds/year of vinyl chloride capacity in 17 plants utilizing this process.4 * * - 4. Monsanto oxychlorination. There are several licen sees for this similar process.* 5. Dow oxychlorination. Only Dow and foreign sub sidiaries have used the Dow VCM process, and no indi cation of a willingness by Dow to license to others has been published. 6. Union Carbide (Lummus) balanced acetylene/ ethylene process. No recent examples of this process have been constructed in the United States, but a Union Car bide venture using a Wulff process acctylene/ethylene plant in Brazil is employing this process to consume part of the production. Complete startup of this plant is planned for 1972. .i The basic flow scheme is shown in Fig. 6-4. Ethylene and chlorine produce EDC, which is cracked to yield HCI and VCM; the process is very similar in this area to the above processes. However, instead of using oxygen ' and ethylene to convert the byproduct HCI to EDC, the ; balanced process then involves the older acetylene route. The reaction is a vapor phase reaction over HgClt/carbon . catalyst with^i slight HCI excess. A circulating coolant removes reaction heat to control the reaction temperature to about400 F. Conversion is less than complete in some jdants, requiring recycle of acetylene and HCI, but the reaction yields are 95 percent or greater. Therefore, the removaTof light and heavy byproducts is simple. This . results in low capital and operating costs for the process, but the use of acetylene at current or projected U.S. prices makes this process less than competitive with balanced oxychlorination (sec "Economics"). 7. Others. Pechiney-Saint-Gobain offers combined production of chlorinated solvents and vinyl chloride in flexible proportions. A single plant at Saint Auban, France, has operated since the spring of 1970 to produce about 120,000 metric tons/year of VCM with this pro cess.* * Diamond Shamrock/dcNora offer "Dianor,*1 a process to produce and crack EDC which is aimed at developing countries'with no ethylene complexes.7 The process op erates on ethylene as low as 60 percent concentration > and produces; HCI byproduct, which would leave the process uncompetitive under any but the special circum- ' stances of small, developing chemical markets with tariff protection.* % .. K Feedstock availability. The importance of feedstock cost to VCM producers has resulted in the entry to the VCM market of large, integrated chlorine and ethylene producers (see "Individual Companies" and "Econom ics"). Future manufacturing efforts will be largely influ- --\ Fig. W--Author's Interpretation of the balanced VCM process as announced by Union Carbide (Lummus). TABU 6-1--Properties of VCM* Mel. wL................................................... .............. SpcclAe gravity..................................................... Melting point....................... ................................ Boiling point.......................................................... FUuh point...................................................... Maximum allowable eoocaatratioa (ppm by volume}............................................. Explaalvo Umiu % by vuluma 1* air................ 83.80 0.9834 -- 1S3.8* C -- 1&81* C --J06* F 800 Lower 4 Upper sa Krm c (-344.8 FJ (7,1 F) enced by trends in both of these related fields. A brief review of trends follows: Ethylene production in the United States has been drifting away from the traditional patterns. Until recently more than 80 percent has been manufactured from ethane and propane cracking and about the same proportion located in the U.S. Gulf Coast.* Some recent plants have involved movement toward the north and Puerto Rico and cracking of heavy feedstocks. With developing short ages of natural gas, a continuing erosion of the competi tive advantage of cracking Gulf Coast ethane and propane is likely, and cracking of heavier feedstocks will probably result in higher ethylene prices. With ethylene much more difficult to ship large distances than either vinyl chloride or chlorine, a tendency to locate vinyl chloride production near ethylene plants should continue. Chlorine is the other major feedstock, with VCM accounting for about 15 percent of U.S. chlorine produc tion in recent yean. Largely as a result of slumping VCM demand (which declined slightly in the first half of 1971), chlorine demand has been slack in the 1969-1971 period. However, as various chlorinated products resume their growth trends between 1971. and 1975, chlorine demand should once again require expanded capacity. Given the considerable economics of scale in chlorine/caustic pro duction, the largest and most integrated produccn will retain their competitive advantage in VCM. 'Very substantial electrical energy requirements for dilorine production will force locations to sources of lowcost power. While nuclear fuel and coal are in the running as long-term suppliers of Ipw cost power, petroleum and natural gas remain necessary until at least 1980. There fore, availability of petroleum and natural gas fuels will help determine chlorine plant locations until at least 1975. C^ ^ URL 05312 *v ,VINYL'CHLORIDE ` These trends indicate that manufacturing locations for VCM are likely to be heavily influenced by availability of inexpensive hydrocarbon feedstocks and fuels, with relative labor and construction costs, water and transport tation facilities acting as less important constraints. Physical properties. See Table 6-1. * MARKETS U.S. consumption of VCM was about 3.3 billion pounds in 1970, with 664 million pounds being exported. Con- Fig, 6-5--Per capita consumption of polyvinyl chloride.** APPAREL CONSTRUCTION 9 5 FLOORING 17 G 6 a 6 B IS a . HOME FURNISHINGS ii PACXAGM3 4 ' PIPE 6 FITTINGS 6 it 14 RECORDS S s TRANSPORTATION 7 aWIRE 6 CABLE 13 0 AU. OTHER IB 1965 17 - 197Q to, s75 Fig. 6*fi--End use markets for PVC." sumption of VCM is almost entirely for production of polyvinyl chloride resins and copolymer resins (propylene, ethylene and vinyl acetate are commonly copolymcrizcd with VCM). Domestic consumption is projected to grow about 10 percent annually from the 1970 level of 3.3 billion pounds to 5.3 billion pounds in 1975. Export markets will decline from the 16 percent of U-S. produc tion experienced in 1970 to the more usual level of 5-6 percent of production, or 300 million pounds, by 1973. End uses of PVC are characterized by more variety than most other commodity resins. Physical properties of PVC vary from the soft and flexible plasticized varieties used in dolls to the strong and rigid PVC pipe invading the construction markets. Fig. 6-5 demonstrates the rapid growth in per capita consumption whicEP has resulted from this variety of properties.10 As a result, PVC con sumption is also less vulnerable to the loss of any single end use market - The more rapidly growing markets for PVC are con struction products, packaging, pipe and fittings. These areas should exceed the 10 percent growth rate of the overall PVC market Segments which are more mature and will grow at less than 10 percent include apparel, flooring, home furnishings, phonograph records, trans portation equipment, and wire and cable coatings. An estimate of the 1965, 1970 and 1975 market share of each category is given in Fig. 6-6. While some categories will have declined relative to all PVC consumption, ac tual volume sold in 1975 is projected to increase in all categories.1* Construction uses for PVC include vinyl-coated wall coverings, and strips of PVC sheet to serve as water stops in walls and weatherstripping. The largest potential, how ever, probably belongs to PVC siding and window frames, which are rapidly growing competitors of older wooden and aluminum products. The construction market should grow in excess of 20 percent annually for the next five years. The- packaging application of PVC has been growing very rapidly in recent years. There are environmental pressures to restrict PVC content of packaging because of HC1 released when packaging is incinerated, but such restrictions will act to slow this growth area before 1975, not to reverse the trend. Packaging consumption of PVC grew at above 25 percent annually in the last five years, and should grow at 15-20 percent for the next five years. After 1975, however, look for growth to slow considerably as effective control of HC1 emissions causes other materials to replace PVC in some applications. Use of PVC pipe and fitting? has benefited from the accelerating change of U.S. building codes to allow plastic drain, waste and vent piping. A.D. Little has projected a 1975 consumption of 1 billion pounds of plastic piping, with PVC representing a Urge share.11 The PVC in this application is often blended with chlorinated polyethylene resin. Competition with acrylomtrile-butadicne-styrenc (ABS) resins and styrene-acaylonitrile (SAN) resins will be important in determining the actual growth of this PVC application, but 15 percent is a likely growth rate if PVC prices remain below those of ABS and SAN resins. Among the more mature PVC markets, use of PVC in transportation equipment should continue at a rela tively high growth rate. Further penetration of the auto mobile market is not a major hope for PVC, since scat rAmMw 107*?____ _ .HvnuocARDON Processing TABLE 6-2--Processing methods for PVC" Extrusion (wire, film, sheet and general sxtnisioa). CsWndering Molding(Alia, dxet nod canting)............................. (blow, infection, roto. da.npreaioe).... Cooling jdtp. knife, roO. spray. lamination).. Shan of market, % 40 35 10 URL 05313 \ . coven, headliner* and dashboards have all been heavily l penetrated. As a result, this end use will grow at about i the rate automobile production grows. While other trans, porlation uses will increase, look for this segment to grow at 8-9 percent over-all. Uses of PVC in apparel, flooring, home furnishings and a wire coating are mature segments. Growth of these seg ments should keep pace with real GNP growth at about 5 percent annually through 1975. Another possible categorization of PVC uses is by the processing methods being used to meet the above markets. - Table 6*2 presents a breakdown by processing methods, again reflecting the diversity of PVC markets. Polymer producers. One reason for the varied properties of PVC resin is the diversity of polymerization methods employed and another is the large number of PVC pro ducers, each with a slightly different product line. While "65 percent df VCM was polymerized captively in I960, ' this percentage declined rapidly as older acetylenc-based I plants were replaced with larger ethylene-based plants. * Today companies such as Dow and Shell are exclusively merchant sellers of VCM, while PVC producers such as Monsatato and Union Carbide have discontinued VCM manufacture. As a result, only about 40 percent of VCM was captively consumed in 1970, and the percentage will probably be closer to 30 percent in 1975. The 21 com panies currently producing PVC are listed in Table 6-3, together with capacity by region. Of these 21 companies, 7 also produce VCM (see Table 6-5). A final characterization of PVC production is the type of polymerization employed. Suspension homopohmer resins have been an increasing fraction of PVC production in receni yean, mostly at the expense of copolymer resins, - while dispersion resins have maintained a relatively con stant share. Fig. 6-7 presents a breakdown of PVC by method of polymerization. World markets. During the 1960s, exports of VCM averaged less than 5 percent of domestic production. VCM | must be shipped and stored either under pressure or in a refrigerated tank. The relativ e difficulty of shipping, low selling price m relation to freight cost, and ready avail; ; ability of VCM technology has created a strong tendency to produce VCM locally rather than import for an ex tended period. In 1969, 1970 and 1971, however, rapid expansion of European VCM demand and lagging pro duction capacity led to abnormally large imports from the U.S. Exports accounted for a high of 16 percent of domestic VCM production in 1970. As added capacity tabu 6-3--PVC producer* In tha United States," Jan. 1, 1971 Northeast Borden................. Diamond- Shamrock..... Firestone............. B. P. Goodrich Chemical......... Goodyear Tire fc Rubber............ Great American Plastic*............ Hooker................ Uoaaato............ Mia...................... Paniasotc............ Stauffer............... Ttnaeco............... Southeast Air Productt.... Continental Oil.. Firestone............. Pantasote........... Union Carbide.. Midwatt Air Product*.... Allied Chemical.. Borden................. General Tire..... B. P. Goodrich Chemical......... Uniroyal.............. Southwest Diamond- Shamrock........... Ethyl...................... Goodyear Tiro ft Rubber.............. . Union Carbide.... Par West American Chemical........... B. P. Goodrich Chemical........... . Xeyier................... Loominister, Man. Delaware City. Dei. Pottstowa, Pa. Pedrichteera. N. J. Niagara Falk. N. Y. Fitchburg. Man. Burlington, N. J. Springfield. Man. Auonet. Man. Permit. X. J. Delaware City. Dei Burlington, N. J. Fleming!on. N. J. Pensacola, Fla. Aberdeen. Min. PerryviUe. Md. Point Pleasant. W. Va. S. Charleston, w. Va. Calvert City. Ky. PeiocsviUe. Ohio IlliopaUr. UL Ashtabula. Ohio Henry. IU. Avon Lake. Ohio Louisville. Ky. Paincsvflk. Ohio Doer Peril. Texas Baton Rogge, La. Plaqaemlae. la. Tens City. Texas Lose Beach. CaHf. Long Bosch. CaUf. Saugus, Calif 12 ceapaqjM 13 ptaint 1300 JMM Ibe. capacity 5 companies 5 planu 450 MM Iba capacity S companies Plante 1.000 UM Ibe. capacity 4 companies 4 plants 900 MM lbs. capacity 1 compeaks 3 plants 300 MM lbs. capacity 31 total compantos 33 total plants 3,556 MM lbs. total capacity TABU d-4--Weslorn European PVC consumption (thousands of metric tons) Year..................................... EEC 1973...................................... 1063...................................... 1904...................................... 1905...................................... 1906...................................... 1907...................................... 1903...................................... 1909...................................... 1970*.................................... Growth rate (1902.1970)..................... 1975 Consumption*........... Projected growth Rats (to 1975)*............. 500 610 709 343 950 1X01 1.227 1.505 1,596 15% Z575 10% EFTA 337 355 308 339 350 401 472 523 557 13% 830 *% Spain 17 36 39 33 46 59 71 91 97 34% 330 18% Other 40 52 73 56 55 141 155 140 148 18% 385 14% Total, Western Europe 795 943 1.178 1.271 1.410 1.661 1.925 2.201 2,400 15% 3.900" 10% Source: European Chemical News and Oil, Point and Drug Reporter, Oct. 30. 1970, plus author*' estimates.* ,- comes onstream in Western Europe and developing coun tries rush to build VCM plants, U.S. exports of VCM will decrease again to 5-6 percent of production or lower. U.S. exports of PVC resin are also minimal; in 1969 and 1970, about 5.5 percent and 6 percent of die U.S. PVC gold was exported. Two reasons for this arc the VINYL CHLORIDE rapidly expanding domestic markets for PVO and the high .relative freight costs. Furthermore, tariff barriers are high--20 percent or more--between European countries,-as well as between Europe and the United States.11 Despite this, the specific properties required by resin users remain the most difficult barrier to a large world trade In PVC. In a recent report of the Standard Research Institute11 projections of the world output of PVC for 1970 and 1980 are compared. The percentages accounted for by each producing area are as follows: North America Western Europe Japan Others 1970 26.5% 41.3 16.5 15.7 1980 26.5% 39.7 17.9 25.9 100.0% 100.0% While speciaPpurpose resins sales to developing markets will continue to be an attractive market, PVC resin ex. ports will remain a small market at 5 percent or less of production. The European PVC market is considerably larger than the U.S. market (sec Table 6-4), based upon Europe's large population and greater per capita consumption. : This will allow European producers to build large, competitive VCM facilities to serve their own market*. As U-S. producers encounter higher ethylene costs based upon cracking heavier feedstocks and higher chlorine costs from more expensive electric power, exporting to the European VCM market should cease to be attractive 7 to U.S. producers.14 r- Japanese'PVC producers also represent a sizable market }, 1 ' for VCM, but domestic Japanese production is ample to I provide the estimated 2.4 billion pounds which will be It, * required in 1972. Estimated VCM capacity is in the neighborhood of 3 to 3.3 billion pounds/year (see Table 6-6),* Indicating either sizable exports or low operating rates for Japanese VCM producers. A partial listing of foreign VCM producers is given in - Table 6-6. Since this is not an exhaustive listing, total capacity figures are not available. However, the per capita consumption of VCM is even higher in Europe than in the United States and trends toward oxychlorination are evident INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES Table 6-5 lists U.S. producers of VCM as of 1972. ., Of the total capacity shown, 10 percent is based on acetylene and 8 percent on ethylene without oxychlorina. tion capability. These plants must be considered vulner able to continued construction of large oxychlorination 7 facilities. The remaining 5 billion pounds (82 percent) consists of modern, apparently competitive oxychlorina: f tion plants.'Also noteworthy is the concentration of over 70 percent'of VCM capacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast With the exception of PPG's Puerto Rican plant, all recent capacity additions have been in Texas and Louis iana. ' V The expansion of VCM capacity from 2.4 billion pounds/year in 1965 to about 6 billion pounds/year by 1971 was at an annual rate of 18 percent The actual :rate of new capacity construction has been, even more TABIZ 4-J--U.S. producers of VCM Producer Location Allied................... American Chemical........ (AXCO-Stauffer) Monochcm......... (harden- Uniroyal) Cooece................ Raton Rouge. La. Watson. Calif. Gciiraar. U. Lake Charlei. La. Dew................. Plaquemioc. La. Freeport Ton* Oyeter Creek. Tu Ethyl................... Batoa Rouge. La. Houttoa Goodrich............. Calvert City. Ky. PPG.................... Lake Chirk*. La. Puerto Rico SMI..................... Hourtoa Tenneco............ Houston 1973 Total Nameplate capacity (MM Iba./yr.) 300 170 300 Process Oxychlorination Stauffer osychlorinaUoa Acetylene 000 340 180 700 370 150 1.000 300 500 800 (Expanding) 800 (J974) 255 665 Stauffer oxychlorination Dow oxychlorination Dow oxychlorination Dow oxychlorination Ethylene/EDC cracking Ethylene/EDC cracking "Goodrich oxychlorination (multiple train) Oxychlorination Oxychlorination Stauffer oxychlorination Stauffer oxychlorination Acetylene Source: Many published estimate* u interpreted by the authors. Note that effective capacity probably doe, not equal nameplate capacity. A reasonable capacity lieure would probably be 90% of tlte above rates. Oil. Petal end Drt Ktperttr, Oct. U. 1971, has the nwit complete lining. rapid, with fully half of the 1965 capacity being shut down in the same period. Eighty percent of 1971 capacity is less than 6 yean old. Among individual companies, Dow has about 19 per cent of VCM capacity, and about 23 percent of oxy chlorination capacity. Dow's position as a capacity leader among ethylene, chlorine and chlorinated solvents pn>v ducers leaves no doubt of Dow's long-term position as av VCM producer. Raw materials costs are crucial to VCM economics, being roughly equally split between chlorine and ethylene (see "Economics"). In addition, byproduct chlorinated hydrocarbons from oxychlorination are rou tinely absorbed into Dow's production of perchloro- ethylene and carbon tetrachloride. At the present time, this VCM is largely sold in the merchant market. While Dow has extensive experience in production of bulk poly mers, Dow has chosen to remain a merchant supplier and has discontinued production of PVC. The second largest VCM capacity belongs to B. F. Goodrich at Calvert City*, Ky. Two or three trains at this site employ Goodrich's oxychlorination process (see "Man ufacture"), and are notable in being the only sizeable plants located in tlie northern or eastern United States. Goodrich has captive use for most or all of this VQM, but has made no recent move to expand beyond their existing 17 percent capacity share. Both ethylene and chlorine for this plant are produced by Goodrich at Cal vert City. PPG has moved into second place with a 14 percent capacity share. Plants in Lake Charles, La., and Puerto Rico benefit from large internal chlorine sources and chlorinated solvents business to. absorb byproducts, but ethylene is purchased in both cases. As is the case with most recent expansions, the majority of VCM produced moves in the merchant market. The fourth and fifth largest producers arc oil com* panies with large ethylene capacity but insufficient chlorine-for VCM production. Shell has recently com pleted and started up 12-14 percent of U.S. industry URL 05314 l II i i i i I <i I February J923.., rW-t. I TABLE 6-6----Foreign VCM producers Oaaotrr BBS. CnswiMdM^td.m., lb..i. Fnacti.............. *cr- <%y-''* r4 CfiiCil b- I*al7t Kntelu<, RufiMDlat. Sprint.... 8ILw#Rd#.ta.t... USSR.......................... Wait OffaMayi. . v' - LATIN AMERICA Arfitatloai............. Rraatli i ySb. '-'A*'* . f* i^&GUtei ........... . '^pMwtooi'.l''............. . A,>VAFiiRICMAl/aMtI.D...D...L..E.....E..A...S...T.. TEWttyTplHtij.r.i............................................... Gaenpauvy BASF Solvie llmbunn Vinyl Trchnorjtnocl Ptteirn Oy PAUFAC Pechlney-Saint Gobi*# Solvu Ethy'l^HeBaa AMNon1Cudboa Rumlanca AKZO Shell Inductriml Import Monunto Iberict Oxycro# Vlnielor Kemaaord B. P. Chcmksln British Cm ICI Techmashimport BASF ChetnWtrlte Had* Iloccbtt KniMKk AG Wacker Chemta Ekctrodor SAIC lndustxian-Dow Conaordo-PauUita Union Carbide Enxprena National* da PUralaa Pctro^ulmica-Dow-ENAP B. F. Coodrkh/IVP/othera General OrtanitaUan fa Industry Pctklm Patrofcimya at7 Antwerp Jcmeppe Tesaendcrioo Novaky Porvoo UVcra Tavaux kivmnt Porto Mviha Cacliari Botiek Pemis Rimaieo Vilcea Tarragon* PaertolUno MartoreU rtnunnund Bagla* Bay. Wales Capitarr Bermudas Bahia Blancs Brier SVTM Canctprioo CoocapcJox Alexandria lamft Annual npadiy (thouHnd nwutc lont) 130 300 9U0 CaoO 130 130 32050 360 360 180 100 (opaaded) 300 75 SA 60 80 (plaaacd) 55 75 380 140 N. A. N3.0A. 305 faepaaded) CO (plaaacd) 100 N.A. 60 (planned) 00 (planned; 100 '3 |SU1 4to3 (plaaand) Practn/comnlitlan Stauffer Solvy--ICI Goodrich Goodrieh/I locchst Solvav/ICI Ethylene (expanding) Own (1073) Ethylene-based (1972) Balanced acctykne/ethyleac Ethyl EDC cracking Stauffer (completion)? Goodrich PPGOOTY) Goodiich/Suufler nVa1~"'A1Z*'............ Monsasto/Ethylene Goodrich Wvay/JCl (1072) Goodrich Acetylene OxycMoriaation Oxyclikrrination P-SG (1972?) Stauffer (1973?) Balanced Huls (1973) Goodrieh/Hoechn Coodrich/Iloechst Acatykot (1971) ICI (1973) Dow (1974) Ethyl/Solvay/ICl (197X1 (1973) ^.^JAAxSpuatnAma/Plil.An..C....l..f..l.C... % ** Kerat... Triwxat.. Thailand! Goodrich Atahi-Penn Chamkel Central Cbcm. Chiba VCM Chi**o Petrochemical Japanese Geon Kanexafuchi Kaael MixuchUn* Kureha M i itubishi-hfotuaalo Mitsui Mitsui Toatsu Nihon VCM Senpoku Pctro-ehentieals Toyq Soda Korean Pacific Chemical Chines* Petroleum Taiwan VCM Thai Plastic Gri** RewsmU Chiba MinamaU 6ssii**'****'*** WsoaMma Yefckafehi............. SSsa Nihon Oaaka Tokoyam* Vokkakbl Ulaaa Ksohriant Tauten Banakak JN 55 130 120 00 130 eo v- ISO 110 100 6M0 60 (planned) 40 Goodrich PPG Toyo Soda Snsttr Toyo Soda (1373) Baanced. Goodrich Stauffer Monsanto/Srientific Design Mitsui................................... Scientific Design Stauffer Mitsui Toyo Soda Toyo Soda Dow Menaaate/Tekovama Union Carbide (1972) Dyaamlt Nobel Source: Authors' estimate hosed on many published eouicos. This 11st is not intended to be comprehensive, hut to list moot major producers. ' V "5 V*' * X ** capacity at Houston. Ethylene conies from a gas oil -'^cracker"with 1 billion pounds/ycar capacity, but required chlorine is purchased externally. Shell produces chlorine "and other chlorinated organics beside VCM, but has apparently chosen not to expand chlorine capacity for . use in VCM. With recent announcement of a similar scale . VCM unit in Norco, La., Shell will become the largest VCM producer by 1975. Conoco has 10 percent of in dustry capacity at Lake diaries, with ethylene provided by ethane/propane cracking and chlorine requirements purchased. It is reasonable to watch major ethylene and chlorine producers for the .text VCM units. HISTORICAL DATA Table 6-7 presents data b.ncd on U.S. Tariff Commis sion reports for 1958 through 1969 and the authors1 "estimates for 1975. These data show a steady rise in the .. production of VCM, excepting a slump in 1967, when the . industry was particularly plagued with overcapacity. Prov duction lias grown at over 17 percent per year for the TABU A-7--U.S. historical data: VCM. 1950 to 1975 Y*#r producer# 1959____ 10.... iQfil.... 1903,... 1903.... 1905.... )B0ff.,., 1*07____ 1908____ 1909.... 1970.... 1975.... 10 IS il IS IS ]> IS IS IS 11 9 10* Production UMlb./yt. Tetri nlui Safe* Avarade of prod's) MVltb./yr. pkta </lb. SMM 978 1X07 1.044 l3ll 1.436 W 3X00 3,424 R909 8.738 4XO> 5X00* . 339 362 434 510 501 M 088 CM 963 1.403 SAM 3X90* tan? 11 10 Cl 7X 7JO OX 0.1 5.9 U 44 4.4 U* U* 105 KH 85 98 100 103 123 148 138 130 104 180* 263a Source: UA Tariff Cwuriuh# Author'# estimate*, with prk* mkaian in 1971 doUaia. past five yean. Average sales price has continually dropped because oxychlorination of ethylene, which is accounting for an ever-increasing proportion of VCM production, is considerably cheaper than the acetylene route, and be cause of economies of scale. Because of these offsetting s l o io n - i ?i> ; II !I i ., - .' treads, the total value of production has increased only 6 percent per year since 1964. However, it is believed that the average sales price (real dollars) will hold steady through 1975 because of rising ethylene and chlorine costs and that the growth rate of VCM production will be closer to seven percent per year from 1970 to 1975. The future of VCM is directly tied to the future of PVC, and PVC consumption in the United States is ex pected to show an annual growth rate of 10 percent from 1970 to 1975. The trends of VCM production, price and value ar& shown in Figs. 6-8, 6-9 and 6-10. ECONOMICS v The price of VCM has exhibited the typical downward trend of maturing petrochemical monomers. The major reasons for this trend have been the consistently improv. lug technology, the much larger scale of existing produc tion facilities, and the considerable decrease in the price of major feedstocks--ethylene, acetylene, chlorine and hydrochloric -acid. As with other petrochemicals such as acrylonitrile, vinyl acetate, and neoprene rubber, the 1960s saw the introduc tion of new processes which replaced acetylene as a raw material with a leu expensive feedstock. Even though the new balanced oxychlorination processes (such as Goodrich, StaufTer and Monsanto processes) have a higher capital cost (see Fig. 6-11) than balanced ethylene/acctylenc units of the same size, the raw material advantage of ethylene has 'been sufficient to more than justify the-added capital. At ethylene ancPacctylcne prices of 3 and 8 cents/pound, the switch in feedstocks reduces raw material cost by about 1.1 cents/pound at normal yield ratios. For a 500-million-pound/year plant, the raw material savings for balanced oxychlorination amounts to $5 million/year (90 percent capacity). This in turn is more than enough justification for the approximate $3-$4 million increase in capital cost. While two U.S. vinyl chloride produces? (Tenncco and Monochem) have been able to continue operation of highly integrated acetylene complexes, the operation of these units can almost cer tainly only be justified with an out-of-pocket analysis of cost. No new acetylene-based plants will be built in the United States. The economics of a 600-million-pound/year balanced oxychlorination producer are shown in Table 6-8. This analysis presents a single year of the life of the plant at 90 percent of capacity, which can be justified as equally accurate with some of the component cost data. In any case, the economics indicate several notable characteristics of the VCM business. First, the two raw materials com prise two-thirds of the 8 percent profited manufacturing cost of VCM. With the large economies of scale in chlorine and the evident trend to oil company domlna- * TABLE 6-8^Estimated cost of VCM production by ethylene chlorination and oxychlorination I i > * *.-* ' 'V.V Chlorine.................... Ethylene..................... Catalyst a Swan (net of endit). Fad.............................. Cooling umief............ Electricity....... ... *% royalty................. Total Variable cnt*............................... ............. Usage rate (per lb. VCM) 048 lb. 0.471b. 141b. JMS MM Btu. aftwH Inpus price (4/unlt) i2S M0 AS r98 Manufacturing cost (Thoueand f/jrr.) U/lb. VCM) * 7,030 7.6ss0o0 430 800 830 800 300 1.43 1.41 0.100.08 .04 .10 M M S17J00 129 Operating labor ft wptrvMon................................. uiiattMKt (t% of BL capital)..................................... General ororbeM (30% of operating tc maintenance). Tuninsurance and rental* (1M% of nml capital)., 13% capital charar to eara 8% on find investment.. 8% storking capital interest...*..................................... Total find charm................................................. 8% profited meaufactariog coat (F. O. B* pleat). $ 900 1.000 430 830 3.600 900 8 MOO $23,700 iJQ9 438 Buili Unit rate* and capita) coat* ere derived Irota published claim*. Sea especially Spits. Fitter. `*Vlayl Chloride Economic*. fUgtlO-M. March I'ASM. ____ 00(hmllUou.tiound/year Gulf Coast plant (F. O. B.) Working capital one monlh of VCM sulei value. Capital cost 10 oa-uwt (million dollars) Bed-sites `% . ChiminI Et|iawit Preirrn .94 Total - II year taxable life Notes TMs*Eji steady-state calculation for one year at 60% of capacity; a nuv accurate discounted cash flow mielit produce a notk-ably different price. No by product credits or dfepoml costs arc included: credits for cldorioaied solvents feedstocks are assumed to balance heavy and light ends disposal costa. i 'BL 05318 108 February 1973 Hydrocarbon Processing A TABLE B-6--SorttHIvlfy of VCM manufacturing cost to assumptions A change In ihh Input CUorlnc pile*................... ......................... EihylWt price....................................... ... Energy costs (fuel, tieem. electricity).. 8*'; Operating St meinleneace coet*............... (without Idcreaw in overhood) Ceattiuctloa cools..................................... By title amount OJ cema/pewad 10 % 10% 10% ChMtM coet of VCM by amount M/lb.) 0.16 2& (US 0JJ1 Sonreel Derived Iron previous cstimste of F. Q. B. mn&ctuiRi cost. don of ethylene production (primarily because of byprod- uct handling from heavier feedstock cracking), the vinyl chloride business is the obvious domain of both large chlorine producers (Dow, PPG, Goodrich) and large ethylene producers (Conoco, Shell, Dow and Union Car* bide). This definite trend should continue for the fore* secable future. A second notable feature (to the extent that these published data are accurate) is the low profit margin on .. recent VCM contracts. With the average price of VCM sales (reported by the U.S. Tariff Commission) ap* v preaching 4J4 cents/pound, it is evident that new VCM plants must be operated very efficiently and with minimal startup difficulties to yield any reasonable return to VCM v producers. The sensitivity of a VCM operation to the . various manufacturing cost components is presented in . Table 6*9. This indicates the probable upward pressure on VCM pricing in the event of increasing costs for fuel, construction, and ethylene which have been characteristic of 197CM97J. A recent development in VCM manufacture was the announcement of a process to produce VCM directly from etharifc, chlorine and hydrochloric acid. The MTRANSCAT'1 process, as it has been dubbed by its inventors and potential licensors at Armstrong Cork and ^JLummus, claims to have economics superior to the bal anced oxychlorination process. Yields and raw material prices'have been reported as superior to oxychlorination and capital costs seem to be comparable. This process . presents a potential reduction in manufacturing cost of ^about 1 cent/pound if these characteristics sure present j^'in commercial-sized plants.14 No announcements of a ^ commercial TRANSCAT venture have been made public ^ to date. A final, developing factor in VCM economics is the production of 3*5 percent chlorinated byproducts by most oxychlorination processes. Wliile most of these are suit* able feedstocks for chlorinated solvents manufacture, a ; fraction are suitable only for disposal. As environmental laws impinge on the more economic means of disposal-- atmospheric venting, deep wells and deep sea dumping-- tlic VCM producers will be forced to more expensive disposal means. These costs will exert an unknown, but potentially significant, upward pressure on VCM price. The future - Despite production volume which indicates approach* teg maturity in its life cycle, vinyl chloride continues, to grow at a rapid rate. This growth has resulted from extension of PVC and copolymers into new- materials Applications. Replacement of older materials--such as ' steel and iron in pipe, glass and paper in packaging--will ^ continue to 'provide the major impetus to PVC and, 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 1975 YEAR Fig. 6-9--U.S. VCM average selling price, authors' estimates and U.S. Tariff Commission. Fig. 6-10--Value of U.S. VCM production, authors' estimates and U.S. Tariff Commission. Fig. 6<1" Estimated battery limit capital cost for VCM proces*o." therefore, ''CM growth. While these markets are them selves in; ..;re and growing only moderately, their very size allow: 15-20 percent annual growth of PVC con sumed frr vi only moderate inroads. At the same time, older PVC markets are maturing noticeably and will exhibit growth of 5-8 percent. The upshot will be PVC consumption growth of 10 percent from 1969 to 1975 and - / VINYL CHLORIDE a lower 7 percent growth of VCM production because of a decreasing proportion of exports. VCM manufacturing costs have been rapidly approach* irg feedstock values. VCM sells for 4J>-5 cents/pound, ethylene for 3-3*4 cents/pound, and chlorine for 2-2.5 cents/pound in large scale contracts. Therefore/ near* balanced oxychlorination is not likely to be supplanted as the major VCM process unless the change to even less expensive feedstocks is involved. Not enough information is available to assess the commercial success of the re? ccntly announced TRANSCAT process to convert ethane directly to VCM. If preliminary information is confirmed, watch for TRANSCAT to be employed on a very large scale. Location of new VCM production will be determined by availability of low-cost hydrocarbons, with VCM transportation by water, pipe line and rail acting as a constraint. If present erosion of U.S. Gulf Coast ad vantages continues, large VCM markets will draw new producers to the North and East. The companies which build the next few VCM plants will be those with captive supplies of ethylene, chlorine or both, and those with considerable VCM operating knowhow. Paper-thin profit margins almost preclude en try by any producer that lacks more than one of these three advantages. Look for Dow, PPG and Shell to About the authors David P. Keane is a product managemeutue it* the Fridon Division "of the SingerCo. He received an 3LB.A. t from Harvard Business School in 1970. He also holds an AS. in economies /row Georgetown University, WashingTen, D.C., and the "Csrtificat" from ' the University of Fribourg, Switzer land, in French literature. Robert B. Stobauch is a professor at IH Jl Harvard Business School where he teaches a doctoral seminar in interna IfJiX*'* tional technology and production, lie holds a BJ>. it chemical engineering from Louisiana State University and 0 recent doctorate from Harvard Busi ness School. He has served as a con sultant to a number of chemical and oil firms and governments and has en gineering experience with Monsanto, Caltcx OU Group and Jersey Standard affiliates. He has written numeroue articles end two books. Petrochemical Manufacturing and Marketing Guide, Volume 1 and II (Gulf Publishing Co.). Phillip Townsend is an industrial eoneuliont and working toward a doctorate at Harvard Business School. Hie spe cial field is production and operations management, particularly in pstrechemicalt. He has held technical and managerial positions with 1K.A. Grace, American Oil and Shell Chemical. Mr, Townsend received a BS. in economic* and chemical engineering from MJ.T. and an MS. in chemical engineering from Purdue. Fig. 6*12--Experience curves for VCM price, PVC price, end value added by polymerlzer. Source: U.S. Tariff Commission, Boston Consulting Group, and Manufacturing Chemists Asso ciation figures are combined with the GNP deflator (1956 base year) and authors* estimates of future production. A 3 percent inflation projection through 1975 is incorporated. continue expansion, with Union Carbide and Monsanto considering eventual reentry of VCM production. Intro- duction of a successful ethane-based process, however, would cause chlorine producers to dominate future production. > : j Based upon these trends (see Figs. 6-4, 6-5 and 6-6) * we predict that production of VCM almost exclusively from ethylene will reach 5.6 billion pounds by 1975, with merchant sales at a price of 4.5 cents/pound (1971 dol lars). This will result in an Imputed value of $252 million for 1975 production (1971 dollars). These large contracts t will be written with escalation clauses to ofTset increasing . power and hydrocarbon costs. Fig. 6-12 presents the history of PVC and VCM pricing, as well as the value added by polymerizers. Projection of the decreasing polymerization margin (using cumula tive production experience versus price) gives a further estimate that average 1975 PVC prices will approximate 11 cents/pound (in 1971 dollars).*1* LITERATURE CITED * Emrepte* CktmUtl Nr/r Polymer Intermediates, Oct. 30, 1970, p. S. * Pttstdms, November 1967, p. 239( CktmUtl Wttk, Aug. * "F*itn Aid for Vtayl," Cktmuci Week, Sept. 34. 1966. * HyJr*emrk*n Pre<*itaf, November 1969, p. 349, * Hydroemrhmn Ptttuimg, November 1969, p. 346. * Enrobes Chrauref New, April 90, 1971, and OH *md C*t /wnd, No*. Cktmltsl Jtafieeeriaf, April 33. 19G6. pp. 143-144. Freiliaf, Iluioa aad Summerville. "Which Fudilocl for Ethylene," Nydre- cc'iox PfM-euief, November 1961. p. 149. * Faith, Keyes aad Clark, InJtul'iml Chtmitsii, Wiley, 3rd edition, 1965, f. 09. ** "Polyvinyl Chloride: Outlook aad Opportunities" Jaba Aachter <B. C. Goodrich), Chemical Marketing Research Assodailaa, New York, Slay L 1971. " CAmtVef H'ret, Aug. 19, 1971. p. 36. Cktmietl IVttk, May 24, 1969, p. 92. noil. Pmimt eed Drug Reporter. May 5. 1969. p. 3. ** The OH end Cal /eurnW, March 6. 1971'. p. S3. For ha explanation of the experience curve method of price forecastsof. see die various publications of the liuuoa Consulting Group, including, "ref* ipectivei on Experience,'' Bmim, 1966. "Vinyl Chloride Economies," Peter Spih, Ckemleal l(iurrtr /VefrrU, March 1966, p. 19-26 with appropriate escalation factors to 1971' applied by author. END OF SERIES URL 05318 i i f :--t' `Y: 4c * A' i