Document 0g9Gb2jVGeRrd1EEbpqQ0jOvM
Alt THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1990
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
TX TIMER
Scientific Faddism rmcoow26o
George Bush went over to George
town University yesterday to address
a U.N.-sponsored group of environ
mentalists gathered to discuss the
subject of global wanning. All he said
was: "Wherever possible we believe
that market mechanisms should be
applied and that our policies must be
consistent with economic growth and
free-market principles in all coun
tries." Based on the reaction, you
would have thought the President had
held up a mirror in front of a vampire
convention.
Market mechanisms? Economic
growth? "Aaaaaaahhhhh!" shrieked
the environmental elite. Or, as David
Becker of the Sierra Club so plainly
put it: "It was a gross disappoint
ment There was more talk in the
speech about economics than about
the environment" What more does
anyone need to know about the envi
ronmentalist gestalt?
Congress and the administration
are embarking on consideration of the
Clean Air bill If the past is prelude,
science and economics are in for a
rough ride.
We've been round the track with
many scientific fads recently, such as
"nuclear winter" and the asbestos
.panic, Eariy on, thTsystem always
seems to promote the fads and sup
press the science.
Carl Sagan's nuclear winter postu
lations, much ballyhood when they
first appeared, have now been dis
missed by most of the scientific com
munity. The idea was that a sudden
release of smoke, caused by burning
cities in a nuclear war, would have a
drastic cooling effect on the atmos
phere, and that the human race would
eventually be annihilated by the tem
perature drop. It turns out that the as
sumptions and estimates upon which
the computer models were based were
deeply flawed.
Today, estimates of post-nuclear
war cooling have moderated. "It's
nice to see these guys acting like sci
entists again," one researcher told the
New York Times. In the nuclear win
ter delusion, only the credibility of a
few arms control hysterics suffered.
But another falsg alarm-the asbestos
scare-shows that the costs dfscieh-'
tific faddfsm can be enormous.
Cbngress passed alaw banning as
bestos, and schools have spent billions
fomwrimt it Cia*'ftr
# ~~ U!-.~
of asbestos, including a recent one by Harvard's Energy and Environmental Policy Center, which reached essen tially the same conclusions.
In their Science article, re searchers from Johns Hopkins, Yale and other institutions confronted the asbestos issue head on: "Does air borne asbestos present a risk to the health of individuals in schools and other buildings? The available data do not indicate that asbestos-associated malignancies or functional impair ment will occur as a result of expo sure in most airborne concentrations of asbestos in buildings." The study pointed out that the incidence of as bestos-related lung cancer occurred mainly among asbestos workers and primarily those who also smoked. This is a long way from Johnny sitting in a classroom.
U.S.'mi^rfe curtailed." the scientists
concluded, noting that the only time serious health risks are created is when asbestos is ripped out of the walls as part of the removal process and thereby released into air. But re moval is what the regulations man date. The EPA estimates that it will cost billion over 30 years to com ply With federal asbestos removal ffialfdates. "
The National School Boards Associ ation has estimated the asbestos-re moval costs for elementary and sec ondary schools to be about S6 billion. Put differently, instead of hiring new teachers, upgrading their curricula, initiating anti-drug programs or im proving facilities, many schools have been forced to squander their money on a federally declared, nonexistent health threat
The man most responsible for the law that led to this monumental waste is former Congressman James Florio, who who was recently inaugurated as Governor of New Jersey, and was last seen laying hands on the state's auto insurance system.
The global-warming issue suggests that a similar process is under way again. The comments of skeptical sci entists have received more attention than in the past, but on balance the debate still plays on the level of reli gious belief. Mr. Bush's chief of staff, John Sununu, is being roundly at*