Document zop5NYJmOvrZnyODZvErxoGe6

Conversation Contents Joint Plan (USGS-BLM-BOEM) Response for Resource Assessment to Secretarial Order No. 3352 Attachments: /4. Joint Plan (USGS-BLM-BOEM) Response for Resource Assessment to Secretarial Order No. 3352/1.1 Digital USGS Letterhead (Blank).docx /4. Joint Plan (USGS-BLM-BOEM) Response for Resource Assessment to Secretarial Order No. 3352/1.2 GS17001063 USGS-BLM-BOEM assessment plan 6-22-17 RTC_KM sjc WG.docx "Dueling, Kimberly Ann" <kdueling@usgs.gov> From: Sent: To: CC: Subject: Attachments: "Dueling, Kimberly Ann" <kdueling@usgs.gov> Mon Jun 26 2017 08:47:09 GMT-0600 (MDT) William Lukas <wlukas@usgs.gov> Margo Harris <mrharris@usgs.gov>, Joanne Taylor <jctaylor@usgs.gov>, "Nowakowski, Judy" <jnowakowski@usgs.gov>, "Applegate, David" <applegate@usgs.gov> Joint Plan (USGS-BLM-BOEM) Response for Resource Assessment to Secretarial Order No. 3352 Digital USGS Letterhead (Blank).docx GS17001063 USGS-BLMBOEM assessment plan 6-22-17 RTC_KM sjc WG.docx Hi Bill, Attached is digital USGS letterhead along with the Word Version of the document that Bill W. is requesting to sign while he is down there. Thanks, Kimberly Dueling U.S. Geological Survey Office of the Director 703-648-4407 "Lukas, William" <wlukas@usgs.gov> From: Sent: To: "Lukas, William" <wlukas@usgs.gov> Mon Jun 26 2017 10:08:40 GMT-0600 (MDT) "Dueling, Kimberly Ann" <kdueling@usgs.gov> Margo Harris <mrharris@usgs.gov>, Joanne Taylor CC: Subject: <jctaylor@usgs.gov>, "Nowakowski, Judy" <jnowakowski@usgs.gov>, "Applegate, David" <applegate@usgs.gov> Re: Joint Plan (USGS-BLM-BOEM) Response for Resource Assessment to Secretarial Order No. 3352 Memo printed on letterhead, signed by Bill Werkheiser and Scott Camereon. Now with ASLM (Rich Cardinale) for final disposition... Bill Lukas | 202-208-4457 USGS Liaison to Water & Science asws liaison@usgs.gov On Mon, Jun 26, 2017 at 10:47 AM, Dueling, Kimberly Ann <kdueling@usgs.gov> wrote: Hi Bill, Attached is digital USGS letterhead along with the Word Version of the document that Bill W. is requesting to sign while he is down there. Thanks, Kimberly Dueling U.S. Geological Survey Office of the Director 703-648-4407 "Dueling, Kimberly Ann" <kdueling@usgs.gov> From: Sent: To: CC: Subject: "Dueling, Kimberly Ann" <kdueling@usgs.gov> Mon Jun 26 2017 10:10:28 GMT-0600 (MDT) "Lukas, William" <wlukas@usgs.gov> Margo Harris <mrharris@usgs.gov>, Joanne Taylor <jctaylor@usgs.gov>, "Nowakowski, Judy" <jnowakowski@usgs.gov>, "Applegate, David" <applegate@usgs.gov> Re: Joint Plan (USGS-BLM-BOEM) Response for Resource Assessment to Secretarial Order No. 3352 Thanks Bill!! On Mon, Jun 26, 2017 at 12:08 PM, Lukas, William <wlukas@usgs.gov> wrote: Memo printed on letterhead, signed by Bill Werkheiser and Scott Camereon. Now with ASLM (Rich Cardinale) for final disposition... *************** *** Bill Lukas | 202-208-4457 USGS Liaison to Water & Science asws liaison@usgs.gov On Mon, Jun 26, 2017 at 10:47 AM, Dueling, Kimberly Ann <kdueling@usgs.gov> wrote: Hi Bill, Attached is digital USGS letterhead along with the Word Version of the document that Bill W. is requesting to sign while he is down there. Thanks, Kimberly Dueling U.S. Geological Survey Office of the Director 703-648-4407 Kimberly Dueling U.S. Geological Survey Office of the Director 703-648-4407 emorandum To . Vincent DeVito Counselor to the Secretary for Energy P olicy Through. Katharine S. M acGregor Acting Assistant Secretary, Land and Minerals Management Scott J. C./ameron Acti ng Assistant Secretary for ^Vater and S cience F Wii liam H. Werkheiser Acting Director, U.S. Geological Survey Subject. Michael D. N edd Acting Director, Bureau of Land Management W alter D. C ruickshank Acti ng Director, Bureau of Ocean Energy M anagement Joint Plan (USGS-BLM-BOEM) Response for R esource Assessment to Secretarial Order No. 3352 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This memo responds to Secreta ry S Order No. 3352, which aims to jump-start energy production on the North Slope of Al aska. Specifically, this memo, which includes information from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), B ureau of Land M anagement (BLM) and Bureau of Ocean E nergy M anagement (BOEM), discusses plans by which current resource assessments in the National Petroleum Reserve- Al aska (NPR-A) and the Section 1002 Area of the Arctic N ational W ildlife Refuge will be updated The proposed resource assessments will be conducted using established USGS protocol and as transparently as permitted by non-disclosure agreements related to proprietary data. This work will be coordinated with and will involve Al aska technical agencies, including the Division of Geological and Geophysical Services, the Division of Oil and Gas, and the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservations Commission. The assessments include the following. NPR-A: A review of technical data has started, which includes 3-D seismic reflection data, exploration well data, and a large volume of ancillary data generated by ongoing 1 USGS research and data submitted to BLM by industry. Estimated completion is the end of Calendar Year (CY) 20171 ; total USGS costs are $2.55 million. A rctic National Wildlife Refuge (AN^WR) Scenario 1 -- Assu mes that existing vintage 2-D seismic data are not reprocessed: No updated assessment would be conducted because no new post- 1998 data exist that compel a new assessment. ANWR S cenario 2 -- Assu mes that 1984-1985 2-D seismic data will be reprocessed: State-of-the-art industry reprocessing of this vintage data will be procured. Estimated completion is the end of 2018; total USGS costs are estimated to be $4.85 million. ANWR S cenario 3 -- Assumes that a new 3-D seismic survey is conducted (conducted and paid for by the private sector): A new 3-D seismic grid will aid interpretation and mapping, which will lead to updated play (assessment unit) definition. Estimated completion is the fourth quarter of 2019; total USGS costs are $3.575 million. If the 3-D seismic survey is not completed during the winter of 2017 18 , then completion will be delayed by one year (to the end of 2020). In that case, the Central North Slope assessment will be advanced by one year. Central North Slope: Relies heavily on the public release of tax-incentive 3-D seismic data by the Alaska Department of Natural Resources. Estimated completion is the end of 2020 ; total USGS costs are estimated to be $6.4 million. West of NPR-A: T his area, both onshore and beneath Alaska state waters, contains only sparse and very old (1970s vintage ) 2-D seismic data. Unless new seismic data become available, existing data will be reviewed and interpreted. Estimated completion is the fourth quarter of 2021 ; estimated USGS costs are $4.4 million. Furthermore, BOEM anticipates completing a Beaufort Sea nearshore resource assessment by the end of September 2017, in sufficient time for findings to be incorporated into the USGS assessments. BACKGROUND On May 31, 2017, Secretary Zinke issued Secretary's Order No. 3352 (Order 3352) that, among other things, directs the Assistant Secretaries of Land and M inerals M anagement and W ater and Science to submit a joint plan to the Counselor for E nergy P olicy for updating assessme nts of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources of Alaska's North Slope, focusing on F ederal lands, including the NP R-A and the Section 1002 Area of the Arctic N ational W ildlife R efu ge (ANWR). Specifically, S ection 4 b of Order 3352 states: Within 21 days of the issuance of this Order, the Assistant Secretary -- Land and Minerals Ma nagement and the Assistant Secretary -- Water and Science shall submit to the Counselor to the Secretary for Energy Policy a joint plan for updating current assessments of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources of Alaska's North Slope, focusing on Federal lands including the NPR-A and the Section 1002 A rea [of the Arctic National W'ildlife Refuge]. The joint plan shall include of new geological and geophysical data that has become available since 1 All references to completion dates are based on the calendar year. 2 the last assessments, as well as potential for geophysical data. existing geological and The effort to update the current resource assessments in the NP R-A and the Section 1002 Area of ANWR is currently underway and led by the USGS in close coordination with the BLM and BOEM. The new resource assessments will replace the 2010 NPR-A and 1998 1002 A rea USGS petroleum resource assessments. An estimate of more favorable hydrocarbon resources could increase the level of interest in leasing in these areas. The BLM will provide institutional knowledge and geologic data that will be useful to the USGS while comparing and evaluating existing information about the NPR-A and the 1002 Area to produce a public report to estimate undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources. The BLM has the data from numerous geophysical surveys conducted throughout NPR-A, including from some high potential areas that are currently unavailable for leasing. Geophysical data for the 1002 Area is more limited; the last geophysical survey was conducted in 1984-85. The BLM will provide a technical review of the draft assessment report. PROPOSED ASSESSMENTS The assessments directed by Section 4 b of Order 3352 will be conducted using established USGS protocols. The assessments will involve public review meetings in Anchorage, IH --I ouston and other locations, as appropriate, to foster " buy-in " and support for assessment results from State agencies and the oil industry. T he assessment results will be incorporated into non-technical fact sheets summarizing results and technical reports that reflect the geological science that forms the foundation of the assessment. Th ese documents will be submitted to USGS technical and editorial review as required by USGS Sci ence Integrity P olicy. Proprietary industry geologic and geophysical data held by BOEM is unlicensed to the USGS. These data (subject to appropriate non-disclosure agreements) will be available for analysis and interpretation in Anchorage at the BLM-A laska State Offi ce and the BOEM-A laska Regional Offi ce. Any new geophysical and geological data acquired (seismic reflection, nonFederal well data, etc.) not currently available (i.e., proprietary State of Alaska data) will be shared between the three bureaus for the purpose of this analysis. BOEM i s researching the availability and cost of the Smith Bay portion of the BLM 3D dataset pertinent to the assessment of the Caelus discovery. F inally, BOEM, in conjunction with BLM , will pursue the acquisition of the A laska state portion of the NP RA 3-D dataset collected in Smith Bay. This seismic data is vital in analyzing the possible geological impact on resources from the Caelus discovery. The cost to purchase the Smith 3D data is currently unknown. As this work will be carried out jointly by USGS, BLM and BOEM, it is imperative that the bureaus conduct a consistent analysis b etween onshore and offshore resources, subject to rigorous statistical analysis and supportable probabilistic results. 3 The total USGS costs for each assessment by F iscal Year are included in Table 1 below. Detailed plans and timelines for conducting various North Slope assessments are discusse d more fully below. Table 1: USGS cost information Ai North Slope A ssessment Op of dollars numbers in millions Assess ment FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Total National Petroleum Reserve -- Alaska 1.600 0.950 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.550 Arctic National ^Wildlife Refuge ANWR -- Option 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ANWR -- Option 2 1.350 2.550 0.950 0.000 0.000 0.000 4.850 ANWR -- Option 3 0.000 0.375 2.250 0.950 0.000 0.000 3.575 Central North Slope West of NPRA 0.000 0.000 3.250 2.200 0.950 0.000 6.400 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.250 2.400 0.750 4.400 N ,: T otals not provided due to range of assessment scenarios provided National Petroleum Reserve -- Alaska (NPR-A) Review of technical data has started and involves personnel from the USGS, BOEM and BLM. Th e data currently under review includes 3-D seismic reflection data, exploration well data, and a large volume of ancillary data generated by ongoing USGS research and data submitted to the BLM by industry. BOEM staff and resources will be available for assessing the oil and gas potential of NPR-A an d the 1002 area of ANWR. BOEM geologists and geophysicists have analyzed the geologic and geophysical data for all sales in the NPR-A, starting with the 1999 sale through the most recent sale in 2016, and USGS has conducted research on all rock units to be evaluated. In addition, BOEM has access to all BLM seismic and well information as it becomes available. BOEM has also assessed the resource potential of adjacent Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) offshore of NPR-A and ANWR. Re-examining the geologic settings of both the onshore and offshore areas will enhance our understanding of the oil and gas potential of the Al aska North Slope. Acc ordingly, the first three tasks of the workflow will consist of a review of all data and analyses by an integrated team of USGS, BLM and BOEM personnel with the goal of reaching consensus on the plays to be assessed and risk structure to be imposed on the assessment. Thi s team will determine the geologic risk of plays and assessment units to ensure resources are consistently evaluated, especially where geologic plays extend from onshore to offshore. The USGS, BOEM, BLM and other government experts will review geologic play risks for consistency. We anticipate this step can be completed late in the third quarter of 2017. 4 reprocessing of the vintage data during the fourth quarter of 2017, and reprocessing of the vintage data during late in the fourth quarter of 2017 through early in the second quarter of 2018 (the seismic company that collected original data estimates six months for reprocessing ). The BLM will work with the USGS regarding the reprocessing of existing geological and geophysical data of the 1002 Area and will assist as required in the collection of any additional seismic data collected on onshore Federal mineral estate. USGS and BOEM scientists would make multiple visits to the company conducting the reprocessing to provide interactive geological constraints to assure optimal results. During the reprocessing, new data will be collected from well samples adjacent to the 1002 Area and from outcrop samples collected during a short field season in 2017. These data will include constraints on oil source-rock quality, uplift and exhumation history, and reservoir-rock quali ty. The USGS recommends collection of an airborne gravity gradiometry survey across the 1002 Are a pending sufficient funds, but neither procurement nor interpretation of such a survey are included in the USGS budg et. After reprocessed seismic data are delivered, a team of USGS and BOEM scientists will interpret the data, produce maps, and define plays (assessment units) to be evaluated. These tasks are estimated to be completed during the first through third quarters of 2018. T his schedule will allow public review meetings to be held during that same period, and the assessment and technical review of release materials during the fourth quarter of 2018. P ublic release of results is planned for late in the fourth quarter of 2018. Total USGS costs are estimated at $4.85 million over three fiscal years, and a timeline of assessment tasks is included in F igure 3 below. Included in these costs is $750,000 dedicated to the Alaska Department of Natural Resources to conduct tasks associated with analytical services in support of the ANWR 1002 A rea assessment. Figure 3i E stimated compl eti on timeline for ANWR Reesource A ssessment (Sccenario 2) Task CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 Seismic data reprocessing (existing 2-D data) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Review technical data and interpret seismic data Refine interpretations of seismic and well data Define A Us; prepare for public review & assessment Conduct public review meetings 1 6 Conduct assessment Prepare release document (fact sheet) Conduct technical and editorial review Release assessment Hold briefings for Admin., Congress, State, et al. D 0 D 1 * USGS does not procure reprocessed vintage 2-D seism c data but provides geological and geophysical advice to seismic vendor ANWR S cenario 3. Ass u mes that a 3-D seismic survey is conducted during fourth quarter of 2017 and first quarter of 2018 (conducted and paid for by the private sector) This task will be difficult, but not impossible to achieve in the timeline shown, including initial processing of the new 3-D data. Interpretation and mapping of the 3 D and ancillary data by USGS and BOEM scientists will occur during third and fourth quarters of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. Definition of plays (assessment units) through public review of the assessment work products will be completed by late in the third quarter of 2019, and the assessment, report preparation, technical review, and release of the assessment results will occur during the fourth quarter of 2019. If the 3-D seismic survey is not completed during the winter of 2017-18 , then completion will be delayed one year (to the end of 2020). In that case, the workflow for assessment of the Central North Slope will be advanced by one year and will commence during third or fourth quarter of 2018. A request should be made to the owners of the KIC well (API #025-20001 -00) to release the well data for purposes of this assessment. The KIC well was drilled by a consortium of oil companies led by Chevron on Kaktovik Inupiat Corporation lands in ANWR in 1986. As it is the only well drilled within the confines of ANWR , data from this well would significantly influence our understanding of the geology and resource potential of the 1002 area. Total USGS costs are estimated at $3.575 million, and a timeline of assessment tasks is included in F igure 4 below. Included in these costs is $500,000 dedicated to the Al aska Department of Natural Resources to collaborate in field work and ancillary analytical tasks. 7 4, Estimated compl eti on timeline for ANWR R eesource A ssessment (Sccenario 3) Task CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 3-D seismic survey and * processing of data Review technical data and interpret seismic data 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q IQ 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Refine interpretations of seismic and well data Define A Us, prepare for public review & assessment Conduct public review meetings Conduct assessment Prepare release document (fact sheet) Conduct technical and editorial review Release assessment Hold briefings for Admin., Congress, State, et al. 0 D 0 D * USGS pi ays no role in designing or acquiring a 3-D seismic survey Central North Slope Assessment of the Central North Slope will rely heavily on the public release of tax-incentive 3-D seismic reflection data by the Al aska Department of Natural Resources. Assuming that several of these data sets are released before or during the second quarter of 2018, and that funding is available for the USGS to license other 3-D and 2-D seismic data, an assessment likely can be completed by the end of 2020. As no Federal lands are involved in this assessment, much or all of the technical analyses will be completed by USGS scientists, with the expectation that BOEM and BLM scientists will provide technical review of the interpretations. Al aska state agencies will be invited to collaborate on data interpretation and play (assessment unit) definition. If the ANWR 1002 Area 3-D seismic survey is not completed during the winter of 2017-2018, the timeline in F igure 4 will be advanced by one year. In that case, the workflow for assessmernt of the Central North Slope will commence during third or fourth quarter of 2018. 8 Total USGS costs are estimated at $6.4 million. Included in these costs is $400,000 dedicated to the Ai aska Department of Natural Resources to collaborate in field work and ancillary analytical tasks. We NPR-A The area west of the NPR-A, both onshore and beneath Al aska state waters, contains only sparse and very old (1970s vi ntage ) 2-D seismic d ata. W orkflow for this assessment will include review with BOEM of seismic data in the Chukchi Sea to evaluate the extent to which those data may inform the geology of the onshore and state waters. Unless new seismic data become available, we anticipate that existing data can be reviewed and interpreted, and that an assessment can be conducted between the third quarter of 2020 and fourth quarter of 2021. We anticipate that much or all of the technical analyses will be completed by USGS scientists with the expectation that BOEM and BLM scientists will provide technical review of the interpretations. As much of the onshore area consists of Native lands, the USGS will invite the Arctic Slope R egional C orporation to also provide a technical review of USGS's work. Total USGS costs are estimated at $4.4 million. Included in these costs is $200,000 dedicated to the Al aska Department of Natural Resources to collaborate in field work and ancillary analytical tasks. Budget Strategy for F unding the VV ork Given that we are presently about to enter the fourth qua rter of FY 2017, it will be very challenging to be able to obligate USGS FY17 funding in FY 2017 to begin this work. USGS indicates that it has approximately $100,000 in uncommitted FY 2017 resources to start work. They believe that the nature of the work, given the Al aska field season, that could be accomplished over the balance of FY 2017 represents about $825,000. Add itional funds beyond the $100,000 (namely $725,000) would need to be identified for redirection from elsewhere in the USGS enacted budget. As a practical matter, this late in the fiscal year we would need to find available grant funds from another program, or money that was intended for a contract that could be redirected for this purpose. However, the reprogramming rules imposed by the Appropriations Committee in this instance would seem to require that a shift of more than $150,000 into this line item would require a formal reprogramming request. The process for a reprogramming would require USGS to identify another program within its budget to be the donor of funds, the Departmental Budget Offi ce would then need to submit a reprogramming request to the Offi ce of M anagement and Budget for approval, and then the reprogramming would need to sit with the House and Senate Interior Appropriations Subcomm ittees for up to 30 days, unless the committees chose to approve it sooner. The thi rty day clock might realistically run out by the middle of August. Finally, once we got approval in mid - August we would need a method for obligating the $825,000 in the six weeks before the end of the fiscal year, assuming the funds to be used were one-year money that would expire September 30, 2017. The fastest way to obligate funds would be by adding a new task order onto an existing contract whose scope of work was broad enough to accommodate the new work, or through 9 an existing cooperative agreement with a state or university. USGS will explore an appropriate funding vehicle. Note that we could also accept contributed funds from non-federal parties to support this work, which presumably would not be subject to the Hill's reprogramming guidelines. That assumption also needs to be validated. BLM and FWS have indicated they do not have available FY 2017 funds to support this work. Bottom line, only $825,000 i n federal funds of the possible $2,950,000 shown in Table 1 could plausibly be obligated this year. Assuming no non-federal funds were available, the balance of $2,125,000 would need to be obligated in FY 2018. USGS would need to evaluate whether obligating that money in FY2018 instead of FY 2017 would push the overall schedule for the work a bit further into the future. 10 Conversation Contents Re: north slope plan Judy Nowakowski <jnowakowski@usgs.gov> From: Sent: To: CC: Subject: Judy Nowakowski <jnowakowski@usgs.gov> Thu Jun 22 2017 16:11:27 GMT-0600 (MDT) "Hitzman, Murray" <mhitzman@usgs.gov>, David Applegate <applegate@usgs.gov> William Werkheiser <whwerkhe@usgs.gov>, Walter Guidroz <wguidroz@usgs.gov> Re: north slope plan sorry Dave! On Jun 22, 2017, at 6:10 PM, Judy Nowakowski <jnowakowski@usgs.gov> wrote: Hi Murray, good way to handle it, thanks! Bill/Dave: please let us know if you have any questions/comments tomorrow, toward Murray letting Rich know whether he can consider this version cleared by us. Thanks! On Jun 22, 2017, at 6:02 PM, Hitzman, Murray <mhitzman@usgs.gov> wrote: Bill and Judy you will see from email just sent that I gave to Richard Cardinale and Scott the integrated plan for resource assessments. It is labelled draft. This is a condensation of the report you reviewed and submitted last week to Vincent DeVIto. Richard called up about 30 minutes ago and really wanted to get this as we are just beyond the 21 day limit (from May 31) to get the report to the Secretary. I went to look for both of you but you were (wisely) not there. Hope this is OK. -- Murray W. Hitzman U. S. Geological Survey Associate Director - Energy and Minerals 12201 Sunrise Valley Dr., MS 102 Reston, VA. 20192 703-648-4576 "Applegate, David" <applegate@usgs.gov> From: Sent: To: Subject: "Applegate, David" <applegate@usgs.gov> Thu Jun 22 2017 22:57:02 GMT-0600 (MDT) Judy Nowakowski <jnowakowski@usgs.gov> Re: north slope plan Thanks, Judy. Will review on my morning subway ride... David Applegate, Ph.D. Acting Deputy Director U.S. Geological Survey 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive MS 111, Reston VA 20192 703 648 6600 voice, 703 648 7031 fax applegate@usgs.gov On Thu, Jun 22, 2017 at 6:11 PM, Judy Nowakowski <jnowakowski@usgs.gov> wrote: sorry Dave! On Jun 22, 2017, at 6:10 PM, Judy Nowakowski <jnowakowski@usgs.gov> wrote: Hi Murray, good way to handle it, thanks! Bill/Dave: please let us know if you have any questions/comments tomorrow, toward Murray letting Rich know whether he can consider this version cleared by us. Thanks! On Jun 22, 2017, at 6:02 PM, Hitzman, Murray <mhitzman@usgs.gov> wrote: Bill and Judy you will see from email just sent that I gave to Richard Cardinale and Scott the integrated plan for resource assessments. It is labelled draft. This is a condensation of the report you reviewed and submitted last week to Vincent DeVIto. Richard called up about 30 minutes ago and really wanted to get this as we are just beyond the 21 day limit (from May 31) to get the report to the Secretary. I went to look for both of you but you were (wisely) not there. Hope this is OK. Murray W. Hitzman U. S. Geological Survey Associate Director - Energy and Minerals 12201 Sunrise Valley Dr., MS 102 Reston, VA. 20192 703-648-4576