Message
From:
Sent: To: CC:
Subject:
Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/5/2017 3:28:46 AM Carlos Mercader [cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov]; Rochelle Corneiro [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov]; Christine Diaz [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com] Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary [Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma #23
Latest updates! Stay safe! Bob
Sent from my iFEMA mobile device.
Robert Nadeau, CEM
Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division
FEMA Office of External Affairs
500 C St. SW
Washington D.C. 20472
Desk 202-212-5193
-------
i
Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov
Weather alerts. Safety tips. Recovery center locations. It's all in the FEMA App. Download it here: http://www.fema.gov/mobile-app
From: Hersey, Tiffany Sent: Monday, September 4, 2017 11:17:33 PM To: Green, Matthew; HLT Subject: Hurricane Irma #23
...HURRICANE W ARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... At 11pm AST, Hurricane Irma was located 410 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and a minimum central pressure of 943 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Irma is a category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane Warning * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
Storm Surge - Heights above ground * U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix - 4 to 6 ft * Northern coast of Puerto Rico - 2 to 4 ft
Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00064564-00001
* Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix - 1 to 2 ft
Rainfall Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
W Palm Beach, FL 7%
Miami, FL
11%
Key West, FL
13%
Ponce, PR
10%
Aguadilla, PR
16%
San Juan, PR
26%
Vieques, PR
24%
Saint Thomas, VI 43%
Saint Croix, VI
16%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Tampa, FL
18%
Cocoa Beach, FL
20%
W Palm Beach, FL 40%
Miami, FL
49%
Key West, FL
41%
Ponce, PR
53%
Aguadilla, PR
60%
San Juan, PR
75%
Vieques, PR
75%
Saint Thomas, VI 88%
Saint Croix, VI
68%
Hurricane Irma Graphics
Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00064564-00002
Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
SON
25N
o
8 PM Thu
P
.8 PM Wed
SON
8 PM Sat
o
' ./
.8 AM Wed
8 PM Frr
11 PM Mon
V
-- *
15N
8 PM Tue'
mm H i sow
Hurricane Irma
Monday September 04,2Q17 11 PM AST Advisory 23 NWS National Hurricane Center
75W
70W
G5W ' -J&OW
55W
SOW
Currant information: x
Center location 18.7 N S5.6 W Maximum sustained wind 140 mph Movement Wat 13mph
Forecast positions:
Tropica! Cyclone O Post/Polential TC Sustained winds: D <39 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M> 110 mph
Potential track area:
Watches:
C ' ^ v Day 1-3
Pay 4-5
Hurricane
Trap Sim
Warnings: M B Hurricane H H lrors Sim
Current wind extent:
i l l Hurricane TropStm
Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00064564-00003
Likely Arrival Time of Tropic
$mt
ism
30 ass mt
iiiiiiiilll i il
_
Hurricane irma **on. Sep. 4,2017 11 pm AST
Storm Location & Speed (knots)
A dt/tsory 23
O <34 34-63 ^ 64
All Times AST
Five-dy chance of receiving sustained 34+ knot (38+mph) winds
1--
g 10 20 30 4
60 70 m 90 100 %
m a.dhs.qov
000 WTNT31 KNHC 050235 TCPAT1
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION. .. 16.7N 55.677 ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH... 20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ... 943 MB ...27 .85 INCHES
Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00064564-00004
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.
The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
St. Kitts,
and Nevis
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-stormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 55.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00064564-00005
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising wa ter s moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the sur ge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-rel ated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For informa tion specific to your area, please see products issued by your loca 1 National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible wi thin the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions pos sible by ear iy Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Pasch
Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00064564-00006