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Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov]
9/2/2017 10:51:53 AM
cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov;
rochelle. corneiro (rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov) [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov];Christine
Diaz (Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com) [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com]
Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov]; DeLaCampa,
Alejandro [Alejandro.DeLaCampa@fema.dhs.gov]; Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary
[Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov]
FW: Hurricane Irma #12
Latest updates on Irma.
Robert Nadeau, CEM
Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division
FEMA Office of External Affairs
500 C St, SW
Washington D.C. 20472
Desk 202-212-5193
Ex 6
]
'Rob'eFt7Nacfeau~(5>Tema.dhs.gov
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Sent: Saturday, September 02, 2017 5:02 AM Subject: Hurricane Irma #12
...IRMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE... At 5am AST, Hurricane Irma was located 1320 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and a minimum central pressure of 970 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph. A west-southwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next couple of days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful Hurricane into early next week.
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Ponce, PR
13%
Aguadilla, PR
12%
San Juan, PR
17%
Vieques, PR
18%
Saint Thomas, VI 24%
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00063714-00001
Saint Croix, VI
19%
Hurricane Irma Graphics
Note; The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size ol the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone,
im M
ill
w B IH H
2 AM Sun.
2 AM Thu*
O ," - --o J* -*
; 9
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*'5AM Sat
mSmmmmmmm ' '-2PM Sun 2 AM Tue*
SOW 85W SOW 75W
Hurricane Irma
Saturday September 02,2017 5 AMI AST Advisory 12 I NWS National Hurricane Center
70W 65W ' 6QW 55W
C u rren t information; x
Center location 19,0 N 41.8 W Maximum sustained wind 110 mph Movement W at 14 mph
SOW 4SW 40W 35W
F o re ca st positions:
#Tropicat Cyclone Q Post/Poientia! TO Sustained winds: D <39 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M >110 mph
Potential track area: W atches;
C \ Day 1-3
Day4-5 IHurricane
Trop Stm
W arnings; Hurricane HI|TropStm
Current w ind extent: jjjjjHumearte TropStm
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00063714-00002
Hurricane Irma Sat. Sep. 2, 2017 5 am AST
Advisory 12
ION
Ait Times AST [
Storm Location & Wind Speed (knots)
0 * 3 4 34-63 $ 2 6 4
Five-day banco of receiving sustained 34+knot {39+nph) winds
5 1 20 30
90 70 m 90 100 %
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00063714-00003
Hurricane Irma
Sat. Sep. 2, 2017 5 am AST Advisory 12
Storm Location & Wind Speed (knots)
034 34-63
ION
All Times AST
Five-day chance of receiving sustained 34* knot (38+ mph) winds
$ 10 20 30
60 70 m 90 100 %
ma.dhs.qov
IATCPATl ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017
...IRMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION...19.ON 41.8W ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 M P H ...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 M P H ... 22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB ... 28.65 INCHES
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00063714-00004
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 41.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-southwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next couple of days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane into early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
None
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00063714-00005