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Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/5/2017 10:23:49 AM Carlos Mercader [cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov]; Rochelle Corneiro [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov]; Christine Diaz
[Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com]; Todd Smith [todd@totalspectrumsga.com] Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary
[Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma #24
Latest update. Bob
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Robert Nadeau, CEM Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division FEMA Office of External Affairs 500 C St. SW Washington D.C. 20472 Desk 202-212-5193 j........... Ex 6............ ! Robeirt.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov
Weather alerts. Safety tips. Recovery center locations. It's all in the FEMA App. Download it here: http://www.fema.gov/mobile-app
From: Green, Matthew Sent: Tuesday, September 5, 2017 5:08:46 AM To: Hersey, Tiffany; HLT Subject: Hurricane Irma #24
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 150 MPH WINDS... At 5am AST, Hurricane Irma was located 320 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 937 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leewa rd Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Irma is a category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 Hurricane.
Hurricane Warning * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
Storm Surge - Heights above ground * British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix - 4 to 6 ft
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* Northern coast of Puerto Rico - 2 to 4 ft * Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix - 1 to 2 ft
Rainfall Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause lifethreatening flash floods and mudslides.
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
W Palm Beach, FL 7%
Miami, FL
12%
Key West, FL
18%
Ft Myers, FL
6%
Ponce, PR
13%
Aguadilla, PR
21%
San Juan, PR
35%
Vieques, PR
33%
Saint Thomas, VI 57%
Saint Croix, VI
20%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Orlando, FL
18%
Cocoa Beach, FL 20%
W Palm Beach, FL 39%
Miami, FL
51%
Key West, FL
50%
Ft Myers, FL
37%
Tampa, FL
21%
Ponce, PR
63%
Aguadilla, PR
71%
San Juan, PR
84%
Vieques, PR
85%
Saint Thomas, VI 94%
Saint Croix, VI
79%
Hurricane Irma Graphics
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O
Note; The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
SON
25N
2QN
2 M Sun-
2 AM Sat
ISN
2 AM Fri
.2 AM Thu
- ^
-2 PM Wed
.5 AM Tue
2 AM Wod 1
90V/
85V/
80W
Hurricane Irma
Tuesday September 05, 2017 5 AM AST Advisory 24
NWS National Hurricane Center
75W
70W
65W
Current information: x
Center location 18,8 N 57.0 W Maximum sustained wind 150 mph
Movement W at 14 mph
$0W
55W
SOW
Forecast pcsitlons:
Tropical Cycl one O Post/Polentiai TC Sustained winds : D < 39 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M > 110 mph
Potential track area:
Watches:
C's v D a y 1-3
Day 4-5
Hurricane
Tmp Stm
W arnings: B ill Hurricane ^ Tron Stm
C ur rent wind extent: l l l l i turiican TropStm
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Hurricane Irm a
Tue. Sep, 5,2017 5 am AST Advisory 24
Storm Location &
Five-dy chanceof receiving sustained 34* knot {39+ nph) winds
Wind Speed (knots)
--
|
j | IiaaHHHMM
0*34 34-63 $*54 $ 10 20 30 40 50 50 70 00 90 100 %
l@fema.dhs.
000 WTNT31 KNHC 050846 TCPAT1
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 150 MPH WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION...16.6N 57.0W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH... 22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB ... 27.67 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-stormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
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The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) .
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. ..
British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leewa rd Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to caus e life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please cons ult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Avila
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