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Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/5/2017 9:35:30 PM cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov; rochelle. corneiro (rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov) [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov]; Christine Diaz (Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com) [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com]; Todd Smith - Georgia DC Gov Rep (todd@totalspectrumsga.com) [todd@totalspectrumsga.com] Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary [Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma #27
Importance: High
Carlos, Rochelle, Christine, Please see latest update on Hurricane Irma from NOAA HLT. Bob
Robert Nadeau, CEM
Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division
FEMA Office of External Affairs
500 C St. SW
Washington D.C. 20472
Desk 202-212-5193
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Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov
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From: Green, Matthew Sent: Tuesday, September 05, 2017 5:12 PM To: Hersey, Tiffany <tiffany.hersey@fema.dhs.gov>; HLT <HLT@fema.dhs.gov> Subject: Hurricane Irma #27
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... At 5pm AST, Hurricane Irma was located 130 miles east of Antigua with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 926 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west near 15 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin tonight and continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late
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Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 Hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane Warning * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
Storm Surge - Heights above ground * U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix - 7 to 11 ft * Northern coast of Puerto Rico - 3 to 5 ft * Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix - 1 to 2 ft
Rainfall Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: * Northeast Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches * Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2 to 4 inches
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
Miami, FL
14%
Key West, FL
24%
Naples, FL
11%
Ponce, PR
12%
Aguadilla, PR
26%
San Juan, PR
50%
Vieques, PR
48%
Saint Thomas, VI 80%
Saint Croix, VI
29%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Orlando, FL
22%
Miami, FL
56%
Key West, FL
62%
Naples, FL
50%
Tampa, FL
27%
Ponce, PR
78%
Aguadilla, PR
86%
San Juan, PR
97%
Vieques, PR
97%
Saint Thomas, VI 99%
Saint Croix, VI
94%
Hurricane Irma Graphics
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Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
30N
2 PM Sat
25N o
.2 PM Thu
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.2 AM Thu
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2 PM Sun
20N
2 PM Ftr
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.5 PM Tue
S
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2 PM Wed'
I5N
SOW
85W
SOW
Hurricane Irma
Tuesday September 05, 2017
5 PM AST Advisory 27
NWS National Hurricane Center
75W
TOW
65VV
SOW
5SW
Current information: X Center location 17.1 N59.8W
Maximum sustained wind 185 mph
Movement W at 15 mph
Forecast positions:
# Tropical Cyclone O Post/Potentiai TC Sustained vinds: D<39 mph S 39-73mf#h H 74-110 mph M >110 mph
Potential track area: Watches:
f V D a v 1-3
D ay 4-5
H u rrica n e
T r o p -Stirs
Warnings: BuH u rric a n e B B T r o o Stm
Current wind extent:
W H lH urrican e
Trop S im
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Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
mw
rm
sow
sow
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*5* S3
3
230
2m
SS
Hurricane irraa
Tue. Sep, 5, 2017 5 pm AST Advisory 27
Storm Location &
Wind Speed (knots) 034 34-63 $%$4
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All Times AST
Five-dy chance of receiving sustained 34+knot {39+mph) winds
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l@fema.dhs.gov
IATCPAT1 ALL TTAAOO KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.IN 59.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT ...77 OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ... 926 MB...27.35 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Warning along the north coast of the Dominican Republic from the border with Haiti eastward to Cabo Engano. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-stormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 59.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin tonight and continue for the
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next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely danger ous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Seal e. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outwa rd up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
The estimated minimum central pres sure is 926 mb (27,.35 inches )
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. ..
British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:
Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
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Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2 to 4 inches
Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday:
Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Brown
NNNN
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