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Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/6/2017 3:23:28 PM cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov; rochelle. corneiro (rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov) [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov]; Christine Diaz (Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com) [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com]; Todd Smith - Georgia DC Gov Rep (todd@totalspectrumsga.com) [todd@totalspectrumsga.com]; swatipatel@gov.sc.gov; Lorea Stallard (lorea.stallard@nc.gov) [lorea.stallard@nc.gov]; Jim McCleskey (jim.mccleskey@nc.gov) [jim.mccleskey@nc.gov]; maribel.ramos@governor.virginia.gov Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary [Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Stoneking, Daniel [Daniel.Stoneking@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov]; Pyle, Stephanie [Stephanie.Pyle@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma #30
Colleagues,
Please see latest NOAA HLT advisory for Hurricane Inna.
Bob
Robert Nadeau, CEM Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division FEMA Office of External Affairs 500 C St. SW Washington D.C. 2.0472 Desk 202-212-5193
Ex. 6 j
Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov
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Sent: Wednesday, September 06, 2017 11:11 AM Subject: Hurricane Irma #30
...EYE OF P O T E N T IA L L Y CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... At 11am AST, Hurricane Irma was located 65 miles east-southeast of St. Thomas with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 918 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue
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for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Irma will move over portions of the Virgin Islands very soon, pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas late Thursday.
Irma is a category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 Hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane Warning * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
Storm Surge - Heights above ground * U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix - 7 to 11 ft * Northern coast of Puerto Rico - 4 to 6 ft * Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix - 2 to 4 ft
Rainfall- Rain accumulations: * Northeast Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands - 4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches * Southwest Puerto Rico and St. Croix - 2 to 4 inches
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
Charleston, SC
5%
Savannah, GA
6%
Jacksonville, FL
9%
Daytona Beach, FL 18%
Orlando, FL
18%
Ft Lauderdale, FL 37%
Miami, FL
38%
Key West, FL
17%
Ft Myers, FL
18%
Tampa, FL
11%
Aguadilla, PR
San Juan, PR
Vieques, PR Saint Thomas, VI Saint Croix, VI
13% 50% 36% 96% 4%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Wilmington, NC
12%
Charleston, SC
26%
Savannah, GA
31%
Jacksonville, FL
42%
Daytona Beach, FL 58%
Orlando, FL
64%
Ft Lauderdale, FL 83%
Miami, FL
84%
Key West, FL
59%
Ft Myers, FL
63%
Tampa, FL
47%
Ponce, PR Aguadilla, PR San Juan, PR Vieques, PR Saint Thomas, VI Saint Croix, VI
90% 97% 99% 99% 99% 99%
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.
30N
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8 AM Mon '
25N
Cl
8 AM Sun *'
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8 AM Sat-
,*BAM Fri ,8 PM Thu
8 AM Thu
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15N
SOW
85W
SOW
75W
70W
Hurricane Irma
W ednesday September os, 2017
1 1 AM AST Advisory 30
NWS National Hurricane Center
Current information: x
Center location 18,2 N 84.0 W Maximum sustained wind 186 mph Movement WNW at 16 mph
65W
BOW
55W
Forecast positions:
#Tropieai Cyclone O Fost/Potential TG Sustained winds: D < 39 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph Ml > 110 mph
Potential track area:
Watches:
f X Pay 1-3
Day 4-5
Humane
Trop Stm
Warnings;
Hurricane
Trap Stm
Current wind extent:
I M Hitrrr.ann Trop Stm
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MW
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ms
111
Hurricane Irma
storm Location &
Wed. Sep. 6, 2017 11 am AST Wind Speed (knots)
Advisory 30
<34 34'63
All Times AST
Five-day chance of receiving sustained 34+ knot (381 mph) winds
$ % 10 20 30 40 00 m 70 00 90 100
ma.dhs.qov
000 WTNT31 KNHC 061448 TCPAT1
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION...18.2N 64.0W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
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MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ... 918 MB...27.11 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for for the coast of Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.
The government of France has discontinued all warnings for Guadeloupe.
The government of Antigua has discontinued all warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province * Central Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 64.0 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the Virgin Islands very soon, pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expe cted to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. ..
British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by larg e and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary grea tly over short distances. For information specific to your area, pi ease see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue today within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and and Haiti on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning Thursday night.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:
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Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Brown
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