Document da4MxpgRrOzQKBY1a8d7ENa9R

Message From: Sent: To: CC: Subject: Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/8/2017 9:34:30 PM beth.tipps@tn.gov; Christine Diaz [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com]; Jim McCleskey [jim.mccleskey@nc.gov]; Leeann Veatch (leeann.veatch@ky.gov) [leeann.veatch@ky.gov]; liz.filmore@governor.alabama.gov; Lorea Stallard [lorea.stallard@nc.gov]; maribel.ramos@governor.virginia.gov; Todd Smith - Georgia DC Gov Rep [todd@totalspectrumsga.com]; 'twalker@governor.sc.gov' Hudak, Mary [Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Pyle, Stephanie [Stephanie.Pyle@fema.dhs.gov]; Stoneking, Daniel [Daniel.Stoneking@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma #39 Colleagues, Please see the latest updated track of Hurricane Irma from the NOAA HLT. Bob Robert Nadeau, CEM Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division FEMA Office of External Affairs 500 C St. SW Washington D.C. 20472 Desk 202-212-5193 Ex. 6 Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov to receive the External Affairs Bulletin Weather alerts. Safety tips. Recovery center locations. It's ail in the FEMA App. Download it here: h ttp ://w w w .fe m a .g o v /m o b ile -a p p Sent: Friday, September 08, 2017 5:19 PM Subject: Hurricane Irma #39 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... At 5pm EDT, Hurricane Irma was located 345 miles southeast of Miami, FL with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and a minimum central pressure of 925 mb. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph, and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning. Irma is expected to remain a powerful category 4 Hurricane as it approaches Florida. Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00001 Storm Surge Warning * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice * Florida Keys Storm Surge Watch * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line * North of Venice to Anclote River * Tampa Bay Hurricane Warning * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna Maria Island * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay Hurricane Watch * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line * North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River Storm Surge - Heights above ground * SVV Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable - 8 to 12 ft * Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key - 5 to 10 ft * Venice to Captiva - 5 to 8 ft * Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay - 3 to 5 ft * Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line - 3 to 6 ft Rainfall Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night: * The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches * Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches * The rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North Carolina...4 to 7 inches * Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches Tornadoes A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday morning across south Florida. Hurricane Wind Probabilities Jacksonville, FL 14% Orlando, FL 36% Miami, FL 38% Key West, FL 64% Ft Myers, FL 60% Tampa, FL 42% Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities Charleston, SC 24% Savannah, GA 43% Jacksonville, FL 74% Orlando, FL 93% Miami, FL 95% Key West, FL 97% Ft Myers, FL 96% Tampa, FL 86% Hurricane Irma Graphics Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00002 Note: The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not shots? the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone. '1 2 PM Sun 2 a ** C<. ' . "C l - I % *- 2 PM Sat ' 20N 10VV 95W H u rrica n e Irma Friday September 08. 20f 7 5 PM EOT Advisory 39 NWS National Hurricane Center 90W 85W SOW 75W 70V/ 65W Current inform ation: x Center location 22:. 1 N 78.5 W Maximum sustained wind 155 mph Movement W at 12 mph Fo reca st pc sillons: Tropical GycSone O Post/Potentiai TC Sustained winds : D < 39 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M > 110 mph Potential track area: W atches: 1 3 Day 4- 5 Ml recant; Iro p ^ tm W arnings: MBHur csne S Sor- Stm C ur rent wind extent: ! tumcan Trop Sim Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00003  I ' ! SS m Hurricane irma Fri. Sep. 8,2017 5 pm EOT Advisory 39 8S .. Storm Location & Wind Speed (knots) 034 34-63 f a 04 ____ Ail Times EOT | Flve-dycharted of receiving sustained 34* krot <38* mph) winds MM j .il $ 10 20 30 40 50 50 70 SO 90 100% Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00004 IATCPATI ALL TTAAOO KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC... INFORMATION LOCATION...22.IN 76.5W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ... 925 MB...27.32 INCHES Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00005 WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island. The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice * Florida Keys A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line * North of Venice to Anclote River * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna Maria Island * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line * North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indie ated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threat ening situation. Persons located within these areas should tak e all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of 1ife threatening inundation, from rising water moving inla nd from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Nati ona 1 Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00006 before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. .. SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...3 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00007 WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night: Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos... additional 1 to 3 inches. Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Jamaica...1 to 2 inches. The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward... 4 to inches, isolated 12 inches. Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North Carolina...4 to 7 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee ... 2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday morning across south Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED 002061 00064223-00008